Astros general manager Dana Brown left the door open yesterday to trading either outfielder Kyle Tucker or left-hander Framber Valdez this winter. Today, Ari Alexander of KPRC 2 (X link) reports that the Yankees and Cubs are two clubs interested in Tucker.
The news isn’t especially surprising. Tucker is one of the best players in the league and it would actually be more of a shock if any club weren’t interested in him. He is entering his final year of club control, which should eliminate teams fully in rebuild mode, but he should have broad interest apart from that. MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz projected Tucker for a $15.8MM salary next year, a notable sum but still affordable for any team and a bargain for a player of Tucker’s talent level.
From 2021 to 2023, Tucker’s production was fairly consistent and also trending upward. He hit 30 home runs in the first two of those seasons and then 29 in the third. His walk and strikeout rates each made slight improvements in that stretch. He drew free passes at a 9.3% clip in 2021, then 9.7% and 11.9% in the next two seasons, while his strikeout rate went from 15.9% to 15.6% and then 13.9%. His stolen base total went from 14 to 25 to 30.
In 2024, he missed significant time after fouling a ball off his leg and fracturing his shin. That injury limited his counting stats but he continued to improve on a rate basis. Though his strikeout rate ticked back up to 15.9%, he drew walks in 16.5% of his plate appearances. Despite only getting into 78 games, he launched another 23 home runs. His wRC+ was between 130 and 146 over his previous three seasons but jumped to 180 in 2024.
He’s also been graded as a strong defender and, as mentioned, can steal a few bases. FanGraphs graded him as worth either 4.9 or 5.0 wins above replacement in three seasons from 2021 to 2023, and Tucker was worth 4.2 fWAR in 2024 even though he played less than half a season. That’s 19.1 fWAR over the past four years, placing him in 13th among all position players for that span. Thanks to his shin injury, all 12 guys ahead of him on that list played in more games.
There are some rough parallels here with the Juan Soto situation from a year ago. The Padres were willing to make Soto’s final year of club control available on the trade market in order to walk a tightrope. They wanted to continue competing but had a tight budget and had several players that were difficult to trade due to contractual reasons. Moving Soto freed up a huge amount of payroll space and also brought back immediate help in other areas, as the Friars were able to get a package of players that included Michael King and Drew Thorpe, later flipping Thorpe to get Dylan Cease.
The Astros are in a somewhat similar spot now. Brown previously said that the club might have to get creative with money this offseason, even though they still want to win next year. Players like Jose Altuve and Yordan Alvarez have big contracts but are franchise cornerstones. Josh Hader and Ryan Pressly each have the right to veto any trades. Lance McCullers Jr. can’t be easily moved due to his health status.
They don’t really have to consider a trade but it seems they will pick up the phone and see if any club blows them away with a Soto-like package. Tucker’s track record isn’t quite as good as Soto’s but Soto was projected for a $33MM salary going into 2024, more than double what Tucker is slated to earn next year.
It’s theoretically possible that they can get a package of young talent they like while simultaneously freeing up some payroll space to re-sign Alex Bregman, since Brown and owner Jim Crane have both marked that as the club’s top priority. That would leave the Houston outfield consisting of Alvarez, Chas McCormick, Jake Meyers, Taylor Trammell and Mauricio Dubón, though it’s possible they get some cheaper outfield help back in the trade.
The Yankees, of course, wanted to re-sign Soto as a free agent but he is now going to become a Met. That leaves the Yanks with a big hole in their outfield and they have to pivot to other possibilities. The free agent market features guys like Anthony Santander and Teoscar Hernández while the Yankees have been connected to trade candidate Cody Bellinger. Tucker would be a more attractive option than any of those three in a vacuum but a deal coming together would naturally depend on what it would take for the Astros to let him go.
The Yankees still have Aaron Judge as their outfield anchor and might move him back to right field for the post-Soto era, with Jasson Domínguez and Trent Grisham options for center. Tucker is strong in right field, so perhaps the Yanks would consider moving him to left. Due to the short porch in right, there’s more grass to cover in left field, making defense over there more of a concern.
There shouldn’t be any financial issue, as the Yankees just reportedly make Soto an offer of $760MM over 16 years, an average annual value of $47.5MM. They will now be looking to spread that kind of money around to other players and Tucker is only projected to get about a third of that.
For the Cubs, they already have a crowded outfield picture but clearly have interest in shaking it up a bit. Bellinger has been in many rumors this winter and Seiya Suzuki’s name has come up as well. Trading either is complicated, in Bellinger’s case due to his upcoming out-out while Suzuki has a full no-trade clause. Those two project to be in an outfield group that also includes Ian Happ, Pete Crow-Armstrong, as well as youngsters like Alexander Canario, Kevin Alcántara and Owen Caissie. Happ also has a no-trade clause while the Cubs probably want to hang onto the younger guys. Each of Happ, Bellinger and Suzuki are slated for free agency after 2026, with Bellinger perhaps departing a year earlier than that.
As mentioned, just about every contender should be calling the Astros to get a sense of the asking price. There are no guarantees that he can be obtained but even the possibility that he’s available makes him one of the most interesting names to watch in the coming weeks.
I’m sure the Astros are aching to give Tucker away to the Yankees for their swing-and-miss addicted farm system players
If there is one team that the Astros will not trade a stud like Tucker to is the Yankees.
Every team will be interested in Tucker if he’s available, that’s hardly surprising even if he’d be a rental.
Padres did all right in that deal.
@tigers182 the Padres made out pretty good with the Soto trade. Sometimes a change of scenery and some differnet coaching makes a huge difference for these prospects.
I doubt he’s even getting dealt. Can we please get something happen? We haven’t got anything major this Winter Meetings ever since Soto signed.
That was 2 days ago man calm down
it feels like a thousand hours
Probably hold on to him until trade deadline,
Patience grasshopper
Dude there’s more to life lol. Pet a dog or something and chill. Fixating on the hot stove isn’t healthy for ya
“Baseball teams interested in player who is very good at baseball”
Please let the Cubs trade for him I would be ecstatic, what would be the return for Houston here with Tuckers impending free agency?
Baez and Bryant…oops wrong year.
Something like Tucker and Pressley for Bellinger and prospects
A LOT of top prospects.
Not for 1 year
That’s hilarious ! Try Cassie plus Moises plus another top 10 prospect.
Then trade bellinger to Yankees
Then pay Tucker 400 million to extend him
LOL, Kenlyo. Only if those “prospects” were Shaw, Caissie, and Horton.
You’re delusional. Not for one year of Tucker. Most likely just one of those 3, one between 5-10, and a lottery ticket
Fr
Kenlyo, you gotta realize that the Bellinger contract you included in your trade construct is a poison pill. So asking the Astros to send a $35+ million AAV guy who is making less than half that AND taking on Bellinger’s underwater contract for one good prospect is laughable.
I consider your inclusion of Pressly as a neutral contract for a top RP, so that doesn’t factor.
Even if Tucker refuses an extension, you can QO him and grab a couple of compensation picks after he carries you to a Division title.
I am reading now that the Astros want Suzuki (not Bellinger), along with Cam Smith and one or two other top prospects. That sounds about right.
Oh, and Paredes as well, so they can replace Bregman when he gets his $200+ million.
Kudos to the Yankees.
Never see a ‘the Padres are interested in” other than “the Padres are interested in saving money”.
Fun times.
Padres are the only team in baseball that spends beyond its means.
“Beyond its means” shut the heck up with that tired narrative.
Show me the books and then I’ll believe the Padres spend beyond their means.
The lack of funds from the TV deal is just speculation on how much they have to spend.
You know as much as the rest of the fans how much they truly have to spend.
Having and wanting to spend are two different things by the way.
We do not know how much they have to spend which can lead to again speculation, that they don’t want to spend what they have.
your denial is fun to watch
You don’t need the books. The owner was dying and wanted to win. They spent like crazy. They took on debt. Mlb stepped in and was like hey this is too risky and you can see what they are spending now. You can’t know exactly but if you research you can get close enough. And if you can’t find the data for a specific city you can find a comp. Not my hobby but I seen other’s do it.
I think the point that Seamaholic was making is that the Padres spend. Look at the contracts they’ve signed.
The Padres don’t “have interest” in a player. They just get it done.
Personally I’d rather have that than all the Yankees are interested in player x, y and z but not getting any of them.
That is a good point Joe!
Yes, but when Cashman actually gets something done, there’s a decent probability that the player is either secretly injured, or about to experience a WAR shortage. It’s not good. When’s the last time we could truly say “sounds like a good return” or “nice jib”?
Joe, you must admit, Cashman is perhaps the BEST at monitoring the market though. He and the analytics crew will monitor the crap out of free agency.
Clipper’s right. Cashman has no equal on the monitoring front–a true complier of monitoring.
“We were in on all those guys but we were waiting for Soto to sign with the Mets. We will continue to monitor the market and hopefully we can match up on a deal.” -Brian Cashman
Yes Joe, its similar to Belichick after a game. “good team we played over there, we did our jobs on offense, defense and special teams.
the most neutral answer to the media outlets.
and do very little, but dumpster dive.
I don’t know. Jed Hoyer and Tommy Nickels are pretty good at monitoring and telling everyone they just missed
“Interested in saving money”…I’m guessing you just started watching the Padres this year and haven’t seen what they’ve been doing the last several years.
Just a casual observation, but you seem extra wound up extra early this year, towin! Last year it was roster panic in Spring Training, and this year is… what exactly? The Pads don’t spend enough? Rumors are hogwash. I, for one, am quite happy that AJ keeps his cards close to his vest and have utmost confidence that he’ll build a winning squad! Just like I said last year… patience, dude.
I guess they need someone to replace the 8.1 WAR that Soto gave them. Let’s hope they can get a deal done soon.
“8.1 WAR that Soto gave them”…I’m thinking that if the Yankees take what they offered Soto and spread it around on 3-4 players they’ll be a much better team than had they landed and kept Soto.
Cam Smith and Owen Caissie plus either Steele or Busch would be alright for Tucker. Would hate to see him be traded, but it is what it is.
Spencer Jones, OF
Bryce Cunningham, RHP
Clayton Beeter, RHP
Old York, you think that’s enough? I figured they’d require much more to get it done, but if that’s what they would accept, I’d probably do it.
@Yankee Clipper
It’s one year of Tucker. Do you think the whole farm should be sold for 1 year? They didn’t even sell the farm on Soto and that was a 1-year deal too.
Hm, okay, that’s fair. I usually look at trades with a jaded perspective (in favor of the other team). It makes sense though.
Soto comp is a great point too.
One year or Tucker or not they are not taking that package, period. One all star season from an all star player far more valuable than the collection you proposed. Beeter is a reliever and Jones K rates are almost at 40%, neither will move the needle on Tucker and you can’t justify it by saying “its only one year of Tucker”. I promise you Houston won’t even think twice about that stupid offer.
@kwolf68
I’d suggest you propose an alternative trade deal. It’s easy to criticize others for proposing deals but less easy to propose an alternative.
What do you think the Astros should request from the Yankees?
They didn’t sell the farm for Soto because they gave up King and Grisham. That suggested offer for Tucker simply doesn’t get it done.
How much did they trade for “only one year” of Soto?
Right, and as evidenced by Soto, you can NEVER count on being able to re-sign that player after the one year has lapsed. Mookie Betts may be the best example of it working, but it’s not the norm.
Yes. The whole farm when it’s a mid level farm. Cubs can take the blow much better than yanks
You wouldn’t have to pay that much for 1 year. Not even Soto brought that return.
Clip/York – I would do that deal for Tucker. And I would have no problem moving Dominguez + in a deal either. But in any Tucker deal I would prefer them try to extend him first. Otherwise he’ll on the Mets or Dodgers in 26.
I agree it would require more. The Yankees farm doesn’t seem as well regarded as some others who might have interest. Jones, Warren, Durbin plus 1 more top prospects or maybe 2 mid level ones might be enough to start the conversation.
Ridiculous. The Astros would get either Smith or Caissie (not both) plus lesser players for Tucker. Steele, PCA, Horton, or Shaw are worth more in trade value than Tucker.
yes but that assumes the Astros agree all the value is equal. There are plenty of reasons why they don’t make that deal even if the simulator says they’ll earn more.
@ClevelandSteelEngines
I didn’t use the simulator. Just suggested some players. Obviously, the Astros are going to set the price higher for teams like the Yankees, given they will most likely face each other in the playoffs each year. Don’t want to help your rival unless you greatly benefit from it. Maybe throw in Judge to make it even? 😀
If Tucker gets traded, the return will be more than what the A’s received for Matt Olson.
Dream on with that trade proposal
You’re right, I probably am undervaluing Tucker. If someone on the Dodgers or Yankees had the third best SLG in MLB in 2024 they’d probably demand a lot more in return.
With only one year of control, the Astros could get a top 10, a top 20 and pieces. I seriously doubt they’d get 2 top 10’s and an established everyday player.
I just don’t envision a Tucker return being inferior to what the A’s got for Olson. Time will tell.
I fully expect the Yankees to make a strong push for Tucker in free agency next year but I doubt they trade for him now. Walker and Bellinger should be their main targets now
Watch the Yankees get Bellinger only to have those same prospects and money used to get Tucker from the Astros! That would be such a Cashman consequence of trading.
I don’t think the Yankees would have to give up much for Berlinger if they agree to take on most or possibly all of his contract. I also don’t think the Astros will move Tucker unless they’re absolutely blown away, even though they probably should
Ever since the Astros lost the ALWC I have said they need to trade 1 of Valdez or Tucker this offseason. Personally I would prefer Valdez traded, which means if either get traded Tucker will be dealt.
Trading either makes sense if they can get 2 prospects from a team’s top 10 list + a serviceable MLB player in return. Tucker’s a premium player and I suspect any trade is between the Soto return/Olson return. I couldn’t find any other comps in recent years
It might not be a bad idea for the Astros to trade both of those guys. They’re likely to lose both in free agency next year so they’d be better off using them to get cheap controllable assets now
I think the smartest thing they could do is trade Pressly Valdez and Tucker. It would suck but I trust Dana to do what’s best… hopefully Jim Crane lets the GM do his job, we’ll see.
If you trade one, you trade both. Especially if Bregman leaves. The return they could get for both of those guys (and possibly Pressley if they ate a lot of his salary) would reload them in a big way and put them in position to start a new window in 2026.
Cubs would have to eat a hell of a lot of money to actually get a prospect return for Bellinger.
makes no sense for the yankees. the plan is to move judge to right field to preserve his legs. academic anyway because the yankees don’t even have enough prospects for a rental
The Yankees need 2 corner outfielders Judge and then someone else.
the yankees need a lot of things
right now i assume judge in right jasson in center and they punt on left field or maybe sign profar
Or they could play Tucket in left…like the article suggests….
Or trade for Yastrzemski. He’d do damage with that right field porch and he’s excellent defensively and on the bases.
Uh you don’t think Tucker could play LF?
I doubt the Astros would trade Tucker. If they did i doubt the Yankees have what it would take to get him. I think guys like Bellinger and Arenado make more sense for the Yankees. The Cubs could come up with a trade package for Tucker but again I just don’t see the Astros trading him.
I think Bellinger is the better fit on Yankees, but Tucker is a better player.
Of course Tucker is the better player. And I think the Cubs have the prospects to get him i just doubt the Astros trade him. Really not sure where Tucker would play with the Cubs either. They would have to make room for him.
Tucker would play RF pushing Suzuki to DH in this scenario. Suzuki is a mildly negative defender, and maybe it would help him not strain his obliques for the 4th year in a row.
Whoever is in RF now would no longer be in RF if they got tucker. There are not a lot of players in the sport better than Kyle Tucker. If you get him, he has the spot and you move the incumbent somewhere else (even if that somewhere else = another team)
So the Cubs are going to trade Bellinger and replace him with Tucker? Seems like a lot of work for not a lot of gain.
.259/.334/.484 .818 OPS 120 OPS+
OR
.274/.353/.516 .870 OPS 139 OPS+
I know I’m biased bc I’m an Astros fan, but that’s a pretty large difference.
Its a difference but is it really worth making 2 trades for 20 OPS points? And the Cubs lost Tauchman and Bellinger in this scenario so they would need center field help.
Tucker is a better player at half the price. Moving Bellinger is about cutting costs.
The Cubs seem intent on trading away Bellinger in any case to use the money elsewhere. PCA mans center most days and there are a number of ways they could go to back him up out there.
Great 3 way set up ! Belli to yanks, tucker to cubs and then a load of prospects moved around
Yeah, Yankees are interested in Crochet, Tucker, Bellinger, Vlad, Fried, Burnes, Hoerner, Suzuki, Buehler and they will end up with Arenado, Santana, Canha, Verlander and Scherzer…
@BronxBombers23
Sure, why not. Arenado will do well in pinstripes. Get healthy Verlander & Scherzer and they’ll be having a pretty decent season.
Vlad should be traded to the Mariners. That is the best fit for him and need for offense.
And Jason Giambi will serve as the hitting coach, 1B coach and baserunning coach. Lol.
If I’m the Cubs I would rather have Bellinger than trade top prospects for 1 year of Tucker…
I agree. I don’t think trading a haul of prospects and bellinger for one year of Tucker makes them World Series contenders. I’d bet a lot of money small market Jed would not extend him either. They haven’t gone after a top free agent in almost a decade.
As a Cubs fan, this makes zero sense. Even after Bellinger is traded they have no room unless Suzuki is full time DH.. not to mention we have Alcantara, and Cassie knocking on the door.
Knocking on Houston’s door if there’s a trade
That’s what I came in to post. They already have one too many players. Giving up good prospects for Tucker means they will have two of Bellinger, Suzuki, or Happ on the bench.
Tucker is an excellent player, but the marginal improvement wouldn’t be worth it.
I’d rather the Cubs not give up an arm and a leg for a rental when there’s zero chance the cubs extend him. He’ll be 29 by the time he hits Free Agency. I’m reading and hearing from several talking heads that he might ask for upwards of 400mil
Why won’t cubs pay him 400 mil ?? Don’t give me that cubs are cheap crap lol
1. He’s not worth 400mil dollars and 2. He’ll only be year away from being 30. Vladdy Jr. Will be 3 years younger both are free agents in 2026. Unless they’re expended. Which I don’t see. 3. 400mill would be twice as much as they gave Jason Heyward. Not comparing them just JHey did not earn that 186 mil he got from Chicago. I’m not even made they gave it to him.
I’d rather have Tucker than Vladdy.
I wouldn’t want Tucker or vladdy Jr for 400 mil
I’m going to save this site a lot of time. Just post who the Yankees aren’t interested in.
@alwaysgo4two
Not interested in a DH, as they have a full time DH till the end of 2027.
@york, I wouldn’t put it past Cash to figure out how to still use Stanton in RF for 30ish games and split the DH between Judge, Stanton and someone in a similar situation.
Ol…let me be more clear. Of the top tier FA, none of which are DHs, who aren’t they interested in. Better? I deeply apologize.
@always, you’d have an empty site. every agent will say Yanks are interested every year. even more now with loosing the soto stakes. makes Yanks look more aggressive to spend.
I was being sarcastic, but in reality who some teams SAY that they’re interested in, and who they actually are, can be totally different. All part of the negotiating process.
I believe Tucker can play 1st base…he’d look good in a Met Uni✌️❤️
Tucker got a brief look at 1B in the minors. But if anything they’d probably have Soto spend more time at DH. Tucker is a vastly superior defender to him in RF.
Hollow!!!! Very, very, very hollow click bait 😐
Alcantara and/or Cassie would be included in the trade. The only way this should happen is if the Cubs are given a chance to extend him before the trade
Are they insane to trade either one of these guys
Smart teams sell high
The Yankees should offer rookie of the year Luis Gil, prospect Spencer Jones and a lottery ticket for Kyle Tucker. They can then sign Max Fried to replace Gil. I think that’s a good start to the offseason for the yanks and a fair package for the astros.
That’s close. Prob take a little more. I think verdict is out on Gil still to an extent
@real @big
When in the history of ever has a team traded the reigning ROY for a 1 year rental? Make it even more absurd when it’s a SP with electric stuff with 5 years of control. Fried was brought in to upgrade the FOR and improve it by pushing Gil further down to the 4th or 5th spot depending on what they do with Cortez and Schmidt
@big
Then it’s even more absurd to suggest that Gil, Jones and a lottery pick prospect might not be enough.
The Soto/King package is a poor exempt n because white the Yanks felt he was a good pitcher he hadn’t proven himself as a SP the way that Gil did his first season. Plus, King was traded with 2 years of control vs Gil has 6 years left.
The difference between Soto and Tucker is that SD knew they had to trade Soto and there were not a lot of suitors. Houston does not need to trade Tucker and they can afford to pay him 400 mil as a FA too. So based on that, Tucker will cost more than Soto. That’s why I’d wait it out if I’m New York. They can afford adding players without sacrificing prospect capital. So they should take that route.
Bellinger is a lock to opt out. So he’s on a one year, 32.5 mil contract. Absolute NO for more than 25 franchises. But bc it’s a one year deal, he’s a great fit in NYC and Yankees won’t have to give up anything to get him. So let cubs get Tucker and Yankees get bellinger then next year you get that cap space back to pursue Tucker as a FA.
I also do not see cubs trading bellinger unless they can replace his bat in the lineup. Many prospects dominate 3A yet still take a long time to adjust to majors. If cubs trade Belli and replace his bat with 23 year old rookies- it may cost them the season
Was thinking of this for the Mets had they missed out on Soto. But this really makes sense for Yanks. They get left handed batter and OF, which fills 2 needs with one. Astros could use a restock here to a depleted farm system. And for Tucker, should it make sense. He may want to sign ahead of the looming CBA where we are headed for some restrictions on contracts. Makes too much sense for everyone imo if Yanks willing to part with some talent.
It’s be foolish to trade Tucker to sign Bregman. Let Bregman go, offer Tucker a huge extension. If Tucker refuses, then trade. But PLEASE do not resign Bregman!!
NOW.WE’RE.TALKING.
Trading for Tucker will cost more than Jasson Dominguez.
No way the Cubs do this when they aren’t really trying to compete. They have not made any significant moves to get better and are looking to dump their second best hitter to shed costs. One year of Tucker isn’t worth multiple top prospects when Bellinger is already there and costs no prospects.
Hard pass for me. If the Astros have a high demand for Tucker, which they rightfully should, then I would pass UNLESS they’re high A window of time to negotiate and she upon an extension. I have no regrets on the Soto trade but don’t want to send prime prospects to a guy who likely wants to test the FA market.
he’s good, but I wouldn’t give up the farm for a one year rental. We saw how that worked out last time.
The Astros trade Kyle Tucker and Framber Valdez to the Phillies for Kyle Schwarber, Kody Clemens and Mick Abel. The Astros move two players currently on their trade block and pick up a big bat, a solid utility man who can play multiple positions in the infield and outfield, and a top pitching prospect. In the process, they save money which may help them resign Bregman. The Phils pick up the outfielder they need and a top starter, which allows them to move pending free agent Suarez and Walker in other trades.
Kody Clemens is not a value to a trade for Tucker and Framber. Those two for Schwarber and Abel is awful.
cheeks, The Astros and Clemens family have a deep history. Roger Clemens won a CY Young Award pitching for the Astros. Kody Clemens is one of the most underrated players in baseball. Once he gets regular playing time somewhere, he’ll start appearing on everybody’s radar. There are many other players the Phils could substitute in a trade for Tucker and Framber along with Schwarber and Abel. Schwarber is a key to the trade because it gives the Astros a big bat and evens up the finances for the Phils. Schwarber who becomes a free agent in 2025 is expendable on a team that would be better served by a DH-by-committee format.
The Phillies need to be in on Tucker.
Tucker gets traded to the Dodgers for Chris Taylor as recompense for cheating to steal the world series.
fWAR600: Tucker = Juan Soto.