There is no doubt this year’s free agent market has moved slower for position players than it has for pitchers. While 17 pitchers have signed deals worth at least $5MM, only nine position players can say the same – and five of them are catchers. Even with that in mind, the rumor mill has been strangely quiet for one top free agent in particular: All-Star first baseman Pete Alonso.
MLB Trade Rumors ranked Alonso as the seventh-best free agent of the offseason on our annual Top 50 Free Agents list. He was the top first baseman available and, arguably, the second-best pure hitter, behind only Juan Soto. We predicted he’d sign a five-year, $125MM contract. Yet, we haven’t had many opportunities to write about Alonso ever since. Over the past six weeks, the Mets are the only team that has clearly and repeatedly expressed interest in the two-time Home Run Derby champion. Their crosstown rivals are the only other team to be publically linked to Alonso.
Not so long ago, Alonso would have been one of the most sought-after free agents on the market, and his potential contract would have been much easier to predict. After all, he is one of the most powerful (and durable) hitters in the game. He has averaged 43 home runs and 112 RBI per 162 games throughout his career. However, teams look at a lot more than just home runs and RBIs these days. They’re also less likely to pay for past performance. Thus, as Alonso approaches his age-30 season coming off two consecutive down years, it’s not hard to imagine why teams might be hesitant to meet his presumptive nine-figure demands. Earlier this offseason, MLBTR’s Anthony Franco wrote about why Alonso’s contract was one of the hardest to predict for the Top 50 list.
Even so, it’s impossible to deny that Alonso is one of the premier power hitters in the game. Over the past two seasons, down years by his own standards, Alonso ranks fifth among all hitters with 80 home runs. His 121 wRC+ in that span is 21% better than league average. Only a handful of players are capable of swinging the bat faster or hitting the ball harder than the Polar Bear. In other words, he is still going to find a lucrative contract this winter, even if he has to wait a little longer for his market to heat up.
Let’s take a closer look at every team’s chances of signing Alonso.
Likely Suitors (listed alphabetically)
Astros: The Astros freed up some payroll (approximately $8.9MM) by trading star outfielder Kyle Tucker to the Cubs and taking on third baseman Isaac Paredes, among others, in return. Adding Paredes won’t necessarily stop Houston from pursuing Alex Bregman, since Paredes could slide over to first base in deference to Bregman, the superior defender. However, this trade makes it more likely the Astros will look to add a new first baseman instead.
Houston has needed a new first baseman since optioning and subsequently releasing José Abreu earlier this year. The team has already expressed interest in Christian Walker, but Alonso could be another target, especially if Bregman signs elsewhere. The Astros reportedly offered Bregman a six-year, $156MM deal earlier this winter. It’s no surprise Bregman turned that number down, but it would probably be enough to land Alonso. That’s not to say the Astros would be willing to spend the same amount for Alonso as they would for Bregman, but at least it suggests that GM Dana Brown has the necessary funds to get a deal done.
Mets: The Mets have always seemed like strong contenders to retain their homegrown slugger. Although winning the Juan Soto sweepstakes may have reduced the pressure on David Stearns to make any other big additions to the offense, it’s not as if signing Soto precludes the Mets from re-signing Alonso. For one thing, the team’s projected payroll for 2025 is still far below where it was in 2023 and ’24. There might be a payroll number even Steve Cohen won’t spend past, but Stearns has tens of millions to work with before that could possibly become an issue.
Stearns also needs to think about how he’s going to address the holes at first base and DH that free agents Alonso and J.D. Martinez left behind. Mark Vientos is an option to play first, but he held the third base job in 2024. His defense was graded poorly there but the Mets could be better off if Vientos can hold down a more valuable defensive position. Last week, Cohen noted that the Mets are “still engaged” in contract discussions with Alonso.
Nationals: There’s a reason why Tim Dierkes, Anthony Franco, and Darragh McDonald all predicted Alonso would sign with Washington on our Top 50 list. Several promising young Nationals players took big steps forward in 2024. Perhaps that will encourage ownership and the front office to make a big splash this offseason as the Nats look to get back into contention. Keibert Ruiz is currently the only player on the roster with a guaranteed contract, and RosterResource estimates the club’s 2025 payroll is currently $52MM lower than the team’s final payroll in 2024.
Furthermore, first base is wide open in Washington. Joey Gallo and Joey Meneses, who combined to play more than 100 games at first for the Nationals this past season, are out of the organization. Juan Yepez is the most likely internal option to play first base in 2025, but he has not done enough over parts of three big league seasons to warrant an everyday role. President of baseball operations Mike Rizzo has said the club is looking for middle-of-the-order bats and Alonso would certainly fit the bill.
Yankees: Aside from the Mets, the Yankees are the only other team to be credibly linked to Alonso. Early in November, Brian Cashman told Mike Puma of the New York Post that he had spoken to agent Scott Boras about his slugging client. However, MLB Network’s Jon Morosi recently suggested the Yankees would prefer to sign a first baseman on a shorter deal, describing Walker as “more of a priority.”
Nonetheless, it certainly seems like Alonso is still on the table in the Bronx. That should be true even after the Yankees acquired Cody Bellinger from the Cubs on Tuesday. Bellinger can play first base, but he’s more useful to the team in the outfield; he can play center field, allowing Aaron Judge to move back to right. Thus, this team could still use a replacement for Anthony Rizzo at first. Ben Rice, who hit .171/.264/.349 over 50 games in his rookie season, and DJ LeMahieu, who hit .204/.269/.259 in his age-35 campaign, are currently the best in-house options.
With a projected $270MM payroll for 2025 (per RosterResource), the Yanks are still about $33MM under their final estimate from 2024. And while they have made several additions, including Bellinger, Max Fried, and Devin Williams, they still have work to do to replace an incredible talent like Soto. That’s especially true when it comes to the offense.
Plausible/On-Paper Dark Horses
Blue Jays: The Blue Jays have money to spend and a strong desire to add star power. Alonso isn’t on the same level as some of Toronto’s top targets this winter (including Soto, Fried, and Corbin Burnes), but presumably, the Blue Jays will keep trying until they sign somebody if they continue to lose out on star free agents. To that end, Ben Nicholson-Smith of Sportsnet reports that “Everyone in the [Blue Jays] organization” believes the offense would look a lot more dangerous with another “legitimate slugger.”
The only thing keeping the Blue Jays out of the “likely suitors” category is the fact that they already have a superstar first baseman: Vladimir Guerrero Jr. However, the two could split first and DH this coming year with Alonso taking over at first if Guerrero leaves in free agency following the 2025 season.
Diamondbacks: The Diamondbacks were one of the best offensive teams in MLB this past year, but they lost two of their best hitters to free agency in Walker and Joc Pederson. Alonso could help to make up for much of that missing production. However, if the D-backs are indeed planning to keep payroll at a similar level in 2025, they only have about $24MM to spend, according to the estimates from RosterResource. That might not be enough for them to make a serious run at Alonso, especially if they’re planning to address any other areas of need this winter. Then again, GM Mike Hazen could free up some cash if he can find a way to offload Jordan Montgomery’s contract.
Giants: New president of baseball operations Buster Posey is clearly trying to get the Giants back into contention as soon as possible; he already signed Willy Adames and has expressed serious interest in Burnes as well. Pitching will probably remain his priority even if he misses out on Burnes. Still, if Posey is considering Burnes, that means he has the funds to make a run at Alonso. LaMonte Wade Jr. was San Francisco’s primary first baseman in 2024, but the team is reportedly willing to make him available in a trade.
Reds: The Reds are the darkest horse here. They don’t have a clear hole at first base for Alonso, and it’s unclear how much they’re willing to spend this offseason. That said, they could badly use the offense if they want to contend in 2025. New manager Terry Francona could make room for Alonso at first by putting Spencer Steer in left field, Jeimer Candelario at third, and Christian Encarnacion-Strand at DH. And while Cincinnati’s front office hasn’t committed to increasing payroll this winter, they haven’t outwardly shut down the possibility either.
Tigers: Despite such a strong finish in 2024, the Tigers haven’t given their fanbase much reason to believe they’ll spend big to improve this winter. However, if they are going to spend – and they really should – Alonso would be a great fit for the lineup. POBO Scott Harris has acknowledged his team could use another right-handed bat and that Spencer Torkelson’s job at first base is far from secure. A reliable righty bat like Alonso would be a big upgrade over Torkelson and a strong addition to a lefty-heavy Detroit lineup. While the Tigers haven’t been big spenders recently, they’ve run higher payrolls in the not-so-distant past.
Unlikely/Not Happening
Angels: The Angels have been active this offseason, but first base doesn’t seem to be at the top of their priority list. Former first-round pick Nolan Schanuel was mediocre in his first full MLB season, but presumably, the Angels haven’t given up on the young first baseman just yet. Meanwhile, Jorge Soler is penciled in at DH, and Anthony Rendon, Mike Trout, and Travis d’Arnaud could see some time there as well.
Athletics: The A’s could theoretically make room for Alonso at first base/DH by having Brent Rooker play more outfield and Tyler Soderstrom catch more often, but it’s far from a perfect fit. While this team might need to keep spending to avoid an MLBPA grievance, there are better uses for that money.
Braves: With Matt Olson at first base and Marcell Ozuna as their designated hitter, the Braves have no need or room for Alonso.
Brewers: The Brewers have been linked to at least one veteran first baseman this offseason; according to USA Today’s Bob Nightengale, they’re interested in Paul Goldschmidt. However, they’re not usually in play for more expensive free agents like Alonso. Milwaukee hasn’t signed a free agent for more than $35MM or more than three years since Lorenzo Cain in 2018. Even a modest splash on Goldschmidt might require them to offload the Rhys Hoskins contract.
Cardinals: Willson Contreras will be the Cardinals’ full-time first baseman going forward. Even if that weren’t the case, St. Louis is highly unlikely to sign any long-term contracts this winter.
Cubs: Chicago already made a big offensive addition this offseason, trading for Tucker last week. In order to make room for Alonso, the Cubs would most likely have to trade first baseman Michael Busch or presumptive DH Seiya Suzuki. After trading Bellinger to the Yankees, there’s no indication they’re planning to do that.
Dodgers: The Dodgers need Alonso even less than the Braves, thanks to their MVP first baseman Freddie Freeman and MVP DH Shohei Ohtani.
Guardians: On the rare occasions the Guardians have spent significant money in free agency, it has often been for a defensively limited slugger – think Josh Bell, Yonder Alonso, and Edwin Encarnacion. That said, a contract for Pete Alonso would easily be the biggest this front office has ever handed out to a free agent. What’s more, Alonso would only fit in Cleveland if the team were to trade current first baseman Josh Naylor. It would seem counterproductive for the Guardians to deal Naylor and his projected $12MM salary only to turn around and sign Alonso.
Mariners: The Mariners are looking for a righty-batting first baseman, and Alonso would certainly be a nice offensive upgrade for a team that struggled to score runs in 2024. Still, their reported interest in players like Carlos Santana and Justin Turner suggests they aren’t in the market for a bigger free agent addition. The M’s might be planning to increase payroll in 2025, but signing a big name like Alonso still seems unlikely. They haven’t signed a free agent hitter to a contract worth more than $25MM since Nelson Cruz a decade ago.
Marlins: Sure, the Marlins could use Alonso. They could use just about every available free agent. That said, this team is highly unlikely to pursue any free agents who aren’t one-year stopgaps/veterans to flip at the trade deadline.
Orioles: GM Mike Elias has already signed his slugger to replace Anthony Santander, and he went with outfielder Tyler O’Neill. That leaves the O’s with a bit of a logjam at first base/DH, where Ryan Mountcastle, Ryan O’Hearn, and Heston Kjerstad could all vie for playing time. Elias might make a trade to clear that up, but even so, Baltimore’s payroll is already significantly higher than it was last year, and another big signing for the offense seems improbable.
Padres: The Padres have room for Alonso, especially if they trade Luis Arraez, and they could use a big bat to replace Jurickson Profar. However, POBO A.J. Preller is operating under tight payroll constraints this winter. Even for Preller, who always seems to have a surprise up his sleeve, Alonso doesn’t seem like a realistic target.
Phillies: The Phillies fall into the Braves/Dodgers camp. Their two best hitters, Bryce Harper (1B) and Kyle Schwarber (DH), already occupy the only positions Alonso could fill.
Pirates: Like the Nationals, the Pirates are an up-and-coming young team with room for a veteran bat at first base. Unlike the Nationals, however, the Pirates have never been big players on the free agent market. There’s a good chance they’re planning to run with recent trade acquisition Spencer Horwitz at first base in 2025.
Rangers: With the addition of Jake Burger, the Rangers don’t really have room for Alonso in the lineup. Given their desire to slip beneath the luxury tax in 2025, they probably don’t have the payroll space either. First baseman Nathaniel Lowe has come up in loose trade rumors this offseason, but it wouldn’t really make sense for Texas to part with the cost-controlled Lowe to sign Alonso. Both players have been similarly productive over the past three years. Moreover, the Rangers are reportedly seeking a left-handed bat. Trading the lefty-batting Lowe to sign the righty-batting Alonso would only set them back in that respect.
Rays: Even if the Rays were finally going to shock the baseball world and sign a top free agent to a nine-figure contract, Alonso probably wouldn’t be their guy. According to wRC+, Tampa Bay’s cost-controlled first baseman Yandy Díaz has outperformed Alonso at the plate in each of the past three seasons.
Red Sox: Boston already has money to spend but a cluttered first base and DH mix. Rafael Devers is a poor defender at third and the club has considered moving him over to first. But since they have Triston Casas there and Masataka Yoshida likely taking up a lot of DH time, it’s led to rumors of Casas being available on the trading block. Signing Alonso would be an expensive way of further crowding that situation.
Rockies: You can’t completely count out the Rockies – this is the team that signed Kris Bryant to a $182MM deal just a few years ago – but there is no reason to believe Colorado is in on any of the top free agents this year. After Charlie Blackmon’s retirement, Bryant is likely to get most of the reps at DH in 2025, while the Rockies surely want to see what they have in Michael Toglia at first base.
Royals: The Royals could use the offense, but they’re highly unlikely to spend what it will take to land Alonso. On top of that, they already have a full-time first baseman in Vinnie Pasquantino. With players like Jonathan India and Salvador Perez already on the roster, Kansas City probably isn’t looking for a full-time DH.
Twins: The Twins could use a first baseman to replace Carlos Santana, but Alonso is almost surely out of their price range. RosterResource already projects their 2025 payroll to be $12MM higher than the final estimate from 2024.
White Sox: Not happening.
Image courtesy of Imagn.
Alonso feels like a player that everybody expects to crater or still produce home runs but have limited actual value beyond the individual cumulative power numbers and thus… nobody wants to bank on him.
He could be looking at like 1 year/$15M or 2 years/$40M or something…. but there’s no way anybody’s giving him 5 years/$125M or any number of years and $100M+… just ain’t gonna happen.
He’ll be waaay closer to 5/$125 million than he will to 1/$15M or 2/$40M. The Mets just last year offered him 7/$158M. I would love some of what you’re smoking if you think he’s only getting 1/$15M or 2/$40. Conforto just signed for 1/$17M after putting up only 2.8 WAR over the last four seasons and only 1.3 last year.
I was literally just typing the Conforto comparison, then I saw your comment LOL. Pete would be a steal at 1 /$15MM or 2 /$40MM.
Alonso to the Mets, three years, $30 million per year, with an opt-out after every year.
I don’t think the Mets would play him hard like that. I think the Mets would offer at least 4/$100 mil. but I don’t think any other team offers him as much.
$15m? Someone will pay him an AAV of ~$23 to 26 million. I hope it’s the Mets for 4 years. Maybe 5.
@TrillionaireTeamOperator I’m sympathetic but, 1/15m or 2/40m? Not a chance. Nearly every GM is constantly at most two years from being unceremoniously fired—and this drives a lot of free agent bidding.
Does your average GM care about Alonso’s contract being an albatross in 2030 (or by 2026?)? He does not. He wants desperately to get a year or two of 30+ HR that he dreams will cement the middle of his lineup and, critically, not get canned. What happens after? Well, it’s too bad. He’ll sell a few tickets, though, and the team owners will nod sagely at this ‘coup’ since they have no idea of the steep decline for righty-righty bad defensive 1Bman at age 30—which makes them no different than the vast majority of people who post here..
Never mind that a sane contract for Alonso is at most 3/60m, given he’s already down to 3.8 then 2.8 then 2.1 fWAR from 2022 to 2024 _and may never have even one more productive season where he puts up as much as two wins worth of production. The bidding from GMs always on the verge of being fired will drive the bidding over $100m.
Should anyone be surprised if Alonso’s downward trajectory continues 3.8, 2.8, 2.1, then 1.4 fWAR in 2025, 0.7 fWAR in 2026, and 0.0 fWAR in 2027, replacement level, no better than the talent freely available in AAA? No, they shouldn’t be surprised in the least.
As for the Mets, they don’t need him. He’s a significant waste of money when the top of their rotation and their bullpen looks close to barren. If they end up spending 6/$150m, or 2/3 of Fried’s contract on Past Tense Pete Alonso, Cohen’s dumber than I thought and Stearns wasn’t strong enough to tell him, “NO.”
As rich as Cohen is, there’s always a limit as we saw at the 2024 Deadline when the Mets went cheap, didn’t go the route of picking up significant salary in trade, got negative WAR from their Deadline acquisitions, and nearly missed the postseason as a result. $15om or whatever it turns out to be spent on Alonso is $150m NOT spent on Max Fried, Corbin Burnes, and so on.
Whatever the argument is against Fried or Burnes (and those arguments are good ones), it serves in spades against Alonso.
So basically you agree with me and you think most GM’s see it the same way, but the way GM’s operate vs team ownership, the league will throw 3-5 years at $25M+ a season at Alonso anyway in the hopes that the first year or two will produce enough HR’s from him that it’ll obfuscate the ultimate waste and cratering that will be the more than likely end result of him on a contract that lasts more than two seasons going forward?
Pete Alonso “arguably, the second-best pure hitter”? I don’t think so.
Willy Adames, Teoscar Hernandez, Anthony Santander, Alex Bregman are all better hitters and more versatile. And I’m probably forgetting someone.
I was thinking the same thing about Bregman & Hernandez but not Santander & Adames. Adames has hit .248/.322 with 27HR per season, Santander has hit .246/.307 with 34HR per season, Alonso .249/.339 with 42HR per season. Alonso is a better more dangerous hitter then Adames & Santander. He has more power, is much better at getting on base especially compared to Santander. Pete ceiling is higher too he has 3 seasons with a BA of .260 or higher, when he hits that good his OBP is very good and he’s among the best hitters in the entire game, Santander has only hit over .240 once in any year that he played at least half the games and that was a .257
Pete is also a better power hitter with a more consistent track record then Hernandez as well but when Hernandez is on like last year he’s the better all around hitter.
he is a .240 career hitter but over the last 2 seasons he hit .217 and .240 so league average and below league average. he does have power but he also provides negative defensive value –
Padres, should and could and “budget constraints” be darned.
Spend some money Kutsenda.
I think the White Sox are more likely than the Braves, considering the contempt the Braves have for the guy. “Throw it again!”
This dude said the same thing about Burnes and Fried taking way smaller deals. Pete floor is 4yr-$100million and a ceiling around 6yr-$150million that’s going to take more teams and the dominos to fall a certain way to come close to IMO unless one team the Mets can get him to take 3yr-$90million or so with a chance for it to become say 4yr-$120mil if he hits at least 115/120HR and has an OPS of .800+ between those 3 seasons, Mets like to operate on shorter higher AAV deals and that’s where if all was the same Alonso wants to go so it’s the only team I could see him accepting something like that.
That’s an absurd take. While it’s very possible that nobody out there is willing to go 5/125 or better, the drop off to 1/15 or 2/40 in the present baseball economy is, frankly, absurdum. You can’t possibly justify that prediction given the value of power in the game, all reports on his current market, the Mets 7/158 offer, etc. It’s just an absolutely nonsensical, infantile prediction bereft of reason or understanding of reality.
I think he’s overrated but lol @ 1 year/15million.
You’re either insane or have no clue. 1 year 15M? 2/40? Limited actual value? No way anyone’s giving him 5/125? Stop hating dude. Yanks just took Bellinger off the Cubs hands and will have to pay him 25 and 22.5 over the next two years and that dude fell off a cliff after 2o19 and regardless of his glove, Belli is not gold glove level in cf, he won the one he has playing rf. He’s averaged 18 hrs and 70 rbi over the last four years. Alonso hit 37, 40, 46 and 34 and drove in 94, 131, 118 and 88. And he is a very serviceable fielder despite the hate he seems to get from people that dont watch him play. And thus, you make absolutely zero sense.
Rooting for Nats here.
He’s going to Japan. Come on.. anyone who does deadlifts on national television in uniform and cleats during the HR derby doesn’t belong in the MLB.
Pete is a pretty big goober, I’ll give you that.
If he’s not a Nat by now, doubt it happens
If the Nats want to wildly overpay for a 1B I’d prefer Christian Walker. Much less likely end up as dead weight beyond 4 years.
Walker is way older.
Walker is also the best defensive 1B in baseball. Alonso is terrible in the field and should be just a DH.
Unlikely to happen. At least I hope it doesn’t happen.
The Nats have completely overhauled their front office operations under Rizzo in the past few years. They *finally* value analytics much more than they ever have before. Alonso’s analytics don’t justify what he’s likely to want as a free agent, particuarly because he’s never been a good defensive 1B and likely to get worse as he ages. Furthermore, he declined a QO so he’d cost the Nats a draft pick.
Ruiz is a terrible defensive catcher. He’s not good at pitch framing or throwing runners out. They’re hopefully going to admit that sooner rather than later and put him somewhere else defensively, likely 1B. They’re stuck with that long term deal Rizzo gave him *way* too quickly. Sign Alonso, and you’ve locked up two lineup spots, 1B and DH. What’s worse is, what if Ruiz also turns out to be a bad defensive 1B? If their only other option is Alonso, there’s nothing they can do about it.
@Naval- Agreed about Alonso. As to Ruiz, his bat doesn’t justify using him at 1B. Maybe he ends up a highly paid backup catcher. And if they need to eat the last couple of years it should be a pretty small piece of the team’s budget.
Rumors predicted he’d sign a five-year, $125MM contract?
Seems like a severely low prediction
*low* or *high*?
Uh that actually is high unless Mets cave.
Too bad Seattle ownership is abysmal, he would be a phenomenal fit there
I disagree.
He struggled as a DH and Seattle already has a bat-first option for the lion’s share of PAs at first base.
If Seattle was willing to spend, Bregman would be the better target. Peterson is a fit (DH) that they could afford, if he’s actually willing to play for Seattle.
Not what the Mariners need. A guy who is strictly a HR guy moving to the place where it is hardest to hit HRs!
Not for left-handed power-hitters.
And yes, they absolutely need a DH.
Not exactly – T-Mobile has a three-year Statcast park factor of 96 for HR, placing #19 in MLB. Splits would favor Alonso at 99 for righty hitters, 92 for lefties.
You’re considering HRs only and lumping everyone together. Left-center is far worse for RHHs than right-center is for LHHs.
But since you want to talk about HRs, his (Pederson’s) expected home runs by park was 23 at T-Mobile in 2024, where as it was 20 at Chase Field. in Arizona.
Angels sign him, cuz Arte is stupid in these types of baseball decisions
Terrible analysis.
Red Sox are a great fit if:
– the Sox were willing to go (perhaps) one year more than they are comfortable on a contract
– Alonso and Casas as a First Base DH platoon
– Alonso was willing to be every day DH
To say they have a muddled mix in the infield, while ignoring the fact that they need a DH and right handed power bat is ridiculous.
Your’s or their’s? Devers should not be playing D at 3B.
This is true, but given Casas is an acceptable first baseman, I feel like Alonso would be a distant third in their order of preference behind Teoscar and Bregman. If they sign/acquire a big ticket infielder, it is imperative they get someone who can take the hot corner away from Devers.
Alonso taking aim at the green monster could be fun to watch
5/125 for Alonso seems pretty low in this current market in both years and AAV.
He would already be a Met if it was 5/125.
Apparently I can’t reply to Yankeesbleachercreatures lol…. anyway-
There’s just something about Alonso that feels like he’ll be the odd man out of the likely candidates for mega deals.
He just seems destined to be the next Kris Bryant, where his previous results dictate a substantial deal, but the timing is such that he isn’t and will not be worth it and I think the league is wary of this outcome, hence why his market is so vague.
Remember we muted one another to avoid the verbal sparring? lol. I unmuted you.
It’s going to be the Mets. His price is already falling, and whatever options he has on the open market will easily be matched by Uncle Steve.
Mets are my fav too. Giants next if they miss out on burnes.
Arizona my dark horse
Giants absolutely NOT interested in Alonso. Wade is better there, less expensive, and doesn’t block Bryce Eldridge.
I had to look up Eldridge. Wow ! What a season !! Dude needs to be a top 20 prospect when lists come out
Giants should spend their money on Corbin Burnes.
I haven’t been able to sleep wondering about Pete’s future.
If it’s any consolation, Pete is not losing sleep thinking about your insomnia contemplating about his future 🙂
lol
As much as I would like Pete back on the Mets, I think Pete will be this year’s FA that over prices themselves (Boras’ issue with his clients) and sits to March and finally signs a 1 year deal for way less than expected. I don’t get it, 100 million over 5 years or 120 million over 6, both are enough money for them, their kids, grandkids etc.
My guess is 5/$140m Dbacks and they trade Montgomery and Thomas as a package to get rid of his contract. I also think the Dbacks will trade Marte and Gallen at the deadline if they aren’t doing well..
I’ve been saying all along that Alonso was going to be a huge contract fail if someone signed to to the figure he thought he was worth. When the Cub fans were howling for him I said no thanks and now Busch looks fine there. Ballesteros is also a fall back there but I’d rather he played 1 more year at AAA. He’s only 20.
He has good plate discipline even if his power diminishes. In the right place I think he’s a pretty safe bet.
I think his market is seriously impacted on Vladdy who is likely a FA next season. So, teams like the Yankees may just want to wait a year instead of giving Alonso a big contract.
100% accurate assessment
I can’t tell what “seriously impacted on” means, no offense, but it’s true Vlad has two 6 bWAR seasons on his resume, one in 2024. He’s also going to be a FA at 27. If he can put up another 5-6 win season in 2025 he’ll get paid for three prime 5+ win seasons on top of whatever some fool overbids for Petey.
Say Alonso gets 5/125m. Vlad’s probably in line for 8/250m. Call it 10/250m so the money’s cheaper and the AAV is lower. No one thinks he’ll be productive in 2034.
Vladi is getting 400/500 mil
“on” should = “by”
“Stearns also needs to think about how he’s going to address the holes at first base and DH that free agents Alonso and J.D. Martinez left behind.”
Part of it is nostalgia for me but I would love to see Alonso and Winker back. They probably don’t need a true DH and could rotate players but I loved Winker on the Mets and he won’t be expensive.
God forbid the Angels push aside Nolan (two hopper to second) Schanuel for a guy who can actually hit.
I think the Angels are the one team that might overpay for Alonso, but it’ll be something like $100M/4 yrs.
If not Anaheim, then back to the Mets.
Meh, Alonso isn’t old enough to catch Arte’s attention
I think you guys might be on to something here
@draker for the price, I’ll take Schanuel. He does, in fact, hit. He may not hit as many HRs as Alonzo, but he has the same, or slightly better AVG, slightly higher OBP and slightly less OPS than Alonzo.
I think the Astros make the most sense. Mets spent too much (especially considering what’s already on the books from last year), Yankees would kill any goodwill the Mets have for Alonso, and Nationals are probably still a bit too “small-market” for Boras to like. Especially after that Tucker trade, Astros have enough younger players to be expendable at IF.
“Mets spent too much (especially considering what’s already on the books from last year)”
Mets payroll, even with all of their additions (Soto, Holmes, Montas), is still way below what it was last year and the year before. There’s still plenty of room to re-sign Alonso.
Problem is I don’t think Astros will be highest bidder
I wonder how it feels to know the Mets signed Soto for more than twice the AAV and 5 times the overall contract they offered him.
Trade Casas for Jared Jones and sign Alonso. Boom. Done.
Alonso is a great fit for Boston. I’m not sure they even need to trade Casas either
I’d prefer they dont trade Casas. But if they want Jones they have to give something up. Both are young controllable players who could be on the verge of an outbreak.
Can’t get too emotionally attached NYM fans. AA let Freddie Freakin Freeman walk – a far better player. The last 2 Alonso seasons were not an optical illusion. Now was his constant flailing at breaking balls. It can’t be overlooked despite the all time NYM highlight WC homer. Stearns knows what he’s doing
Precisely. I’m reminded again and again that 125m-150m for Alonso is that same money not put towards an ace. If the Mets didn’t get Fried because they were holding back that money for Alonso, they’re idiots.
That the Mets are actually making it sound like they’re seriously interested in Alonso is concerning. Why do that if they have no interest—which is the only course worth following? There are polite ways to say so—‘we’re waiting to see how the market values Pete before we can make a decision, and Pete with his excellent career deserves to see how the market values him.. We’ll let that play out.
The Mets are already carrying Nimmo and Lindor into their late 30s, and Diaz and Senga into their mid-30s. Of all the good reasons not to keep Pete around so that his decline fits theirs, saddling the Mets with another 25m worth of declining player, that’s one of the best. They’re got $91m worth of decline here. Why make it $116m? And it’ll probably go to $136m to 141m given they’re either signing a TOR of they’re signing a big DH.
Don’t do it, Stearns. Don’t allow Cohen to push you into it.
Problem is then your out a 1B
Leo, there’s no point in listing teams that he has zero chance of signing with, like both Chicago teams for example. Also, this article just cries out for a poll! That would have been a better idea.
Members of the Phillies upper management team have handcuffed each other and handed the keys to the inmates. By allowing Bryce Harper to squirm his way into playing first base at the expense of Rhys Hoskins, by allowing Trea Turner to play shortstop instead of left field when both Stott and Sosa are better defensive shortstops, and by allowing Kyle Schwarber to be the team’s exclusive DH, leadoff hitter, and hoagie eponym, the Phillies think tank has deprived itself of the ability to optimally improve its roster. Before Harper made known his intention to become the team’s first baseman, there was considerable talk about extending the popular Rhys Hoskins and also allowing JT Realmuto to get time off from behind the plate by occasionally playing first base. With Harper at first base and Hoskins gone, the handcuffs are feeling particularly tight for the Phils’ front office when first basemen like Christian Walker, Luis Arraez, Paul Goldschmidt, Josh Naylor, Pete Alonso, and even Rhys Hoskins are available by trade or free agency. If the Phils finally realized that Schwarber, who will become a free agent after this season, was expendable and at the height of his trade value, and traded him, they could move Harper to the DH spot or create a rotating DH-by-committee which would allow them to sign a Walker, Arraez, Goldschmidt, Naylor, Alonso or Hoskins to play first base and occasionally DH. If Turner had agreed to play left field, the Phils could have signed Arames, Arenado, or Kim. The Phils have the flexibility to play many of the team’s current players at multiple positions and thereby make the kind of significant additions that could allow the team to win the NL East and get to the world series this season. Unfortunately, the inmates are running the asylum in Philly and, unless Dombrowski can still work some magic this offseason and pull off a Houdini act with the handcuffs, the only hope for Phillies fans is to file 2025 under “Also Ran,” and start thinking ahead toward 2026 when the likes of Justin Crawford in center field, Aiden Miller somewhere on the infield, Rafael Marchan catching and Andrew Painter in the starting rotation will make the Phils a much stronger contender than they currently are.
Well said, onthebucks.
TrillionaireTeamOperator, Thanks for the nice words. If you’re looking for a GM, I think I might be able to fit it into my schedule!
Paragraphs, friend. Paragraphs. Let your reader breathe.
Rhys Hoskins just put up a negative -0.2 bWAR season, an accurate reflection of his pitiful .303 OBP, his below league average bat (98 OPS+), his limp SLG of .419 for the position, and his abysmal defense—the worst 11th percentile in the league according to Statcast.
I don’t say this to be unkind, but if you think Rhys Hoskins is worth a regular lineup spot, you have no idea how value is created on the diamond. None.
jack, There are many intangibles in baseball. Sometimes, a hard-working, dedicated player like Hoskins does more for a team by just showing up every day than some other hot shot with better stats does. Maybe it’s just a coincidence that Hoskins played with the Phils the last time they went to the world series. Maybe it’s just another coincidence that, despite being the odds on favorite to win the world series in 2024, the Phils seemed to be missing something when they got eliminated in the first round of the NL playoffs by the Mets. That something may have been Hoskins. I watch the vast majority of games the Phils play every year, and I can tell you, with all honesty, the Phils were a better team with Hoskins on the field in 2023 than they were without him in 2024. He gave his teammates on the Phils, most of whom had better stats than him, fire, life, and confidence. The Brewers are trying to move Hoskins right now and, without equivocation, I would resign him to play with Phils. Sometimes, it’s the intangibles, jack. That’s why underdogs win championships when least expected, and virtual all-star teams get eliminated in the first round of the playoffs by underdogs. Finally, if I start using paragraphs, the next thing you’ll want is the kind of uninformed and biased monosyllabic blather you read in the sports columns!
Although he should know better, Dombrowski probably won’t pull the current Phils team apart this year just to come up empty again in October. However, if the Phils lose ground to the Mets, Braves, Dodgers and/or other improved clubs this season, I would expect a major overhaul by the Phils in 2026 when Vlad Guerrero Jr becomes a free agent, and the Phils can finally bring up Crawford, Miller, Marchan, Painter et al. At that point, free agents Schwarber, Realmuto and Suarez may be gone, and Harper and Turner will be given the opportunity to make an impassioned “I’ll do what ever’s best for the team” speech before the Phils do it for them. To facilitate this, the Phils may also have to change field managers. In the meantime, Dombrowski will probably make a few token additions with players he can get for a reasonable or bargain price but, without an impact left fielder, like Hernandez, Santander, Profar or Suzuki, AND an energetic center fielder, like Jake McCarthy, AND a closer like Scott, Helsley, Miller or Clase, he might as well start planning for 2026. The Phils core is made up of Castellanos, Bohm, Turner, Stott, Harper, Realmuto, Sosa and the current pitching staff, minus Walker and/or Suarez. Everyone elso on the Phils current roster is expendable.
Hes overshooting his value if hes still asking for 200 mil
If Pete is asking for $200 million it suggests the market is currently at $150m-$160m, which is already deranged.
Pete was terrible by the numbers on numerous factors, and a particularly telling one was failing to swing at balls IN the strike zone, where he was terrible. That’s a sign of real decline when you can’t tell the pitcher is throwing strikes. Meanwhile every Mets fan watched in frustration and bemusement as Pete routinely swung and invariably missed on breaking pitches 6″ to 18″ outside the strike zone. That’s also a bad sign, when a slugger is losing depth perception to the point he not only can’t tell, but also isn’t applying his brains and working with coaches to detect from a pitcher’s repertoire, windup, and motion that something breaking is coming, then to be able to lay off when the ball starts out looking like it’ll be low and away.
That’s what a smart, aging guess hitter does, but Pete’s not able to do it.
If you’re intelligent, coachable, and have a little something left you can guess to lay off those pitches a fair amount of time and stay in the game at a higher level. Alonso couldn’t do it and, on top of that, he was one of the worst players in the majors at identifying that a strike was coming. The MLB average for players swinging at balls in the strike zone was 65.1%. Pete could only pull the trigger 59.8% of the time. That’s a lot of lost opportunities.
For whatever reason, this looked like an intentional strategy by a fading player, given Pete was thrown more strikes than most players, but even so he swung significantly less often than other players
And even so this selectivity didn’t help matters, only resulting in the worst SLG of his career by far, at .459, quite a plunge from his rookie year of .583. Young Mets fans might want to realize that the 2025 Pete bears little resemblance to the authentic (albeit juiced ball) slugger of 2019.
He’s a mistake hitter now, and not a great one at that, and if we know that you can bet every pitcher in the majors going into 2025 knows it, too.
Nor will batting him in front of Soto help—never mind that a batting order with Lindor and Alonso hitting 1st and 2nd leaves Soto much easier to pitch around—assuming you think Alonso is still a #2 hitter who you’ll want to be your last at-bat 18 times more than Soto in the #3 slot. Will it “force pitchers to pitch to Alonso”? The problem is they already do that. They also know they didn’t have to pitch to Alonso in 2024 to convince him to swing.
When slugging is your calling card, your ONLY positive feature, an SLG of just .459, tying for 37th in the majors, is borderline fatal. One more fairly small step backwards and he’s a 1 to 1-1/2 win player making 150 million dollars. Let the Rockies sign him. Let the neanderthal Astros FO spend big on teh HRzzz.
Whether the Mets sign Alonso will tell us who’s the actual GM / PBOPS of the Mets is. There’s very little chance, left to his own devices and designs, that David Stearns would sign a two-tool player (Soto at 36.4 bWAR) whose 2018-2024 seasons were slightly more productive than Matt Chapman (35.2 bWAR) and slightly less productive than Marcus Semien (37.4 bWAR) to a 15 year, $765m contract that may end up costing upwards of $800 million—and there is NO chance that Stearns, even with a budget for payroll in 2025 of $350 million, will sign Alonso for what he’s likely to get from some misbegotten, desperate front office.
Alonso, if he goes back to the Mets, will be a Cohen signing. If it happens it will be difficult to contain word of the friction it will cause, friction resulting from a GM / PBOPS hired for his particular acumen being overruled by the team’s owner _twice_ in a single offseason, and on major player acquisitions.
Considering Jonathan India suggested it and got quickly shown the door, dark horse doesn’t begin to describe it.
He wasn’t wrong, but this is where we have been for two decades now.
Athletics: “The A’s could theoretically make room for Alonso…”
Rockies: “You can’t completely count out the Rockies….”
White Sox: Not happening.
Absolutely savage. Well done.
Yeah I feel like Alonso’s fate could be that of ‘likely worthless free agent has a decent enough track record that a team desperate to look like they care and without the ability to sign truly impactful free agents will sign this guy to a bloated deal just to say ‘see? we signed an expensive free agent or two’ and he’s on the A’s for like 3 years/$67M, same as Severino.
Alonso would mash in Colorado
White Sox signing imminent
Where is the poll so I can vote?
My guess is Mets have a standing offer of 4 to 5 years at an AAV of $25m with an expiration date of January 15 before they move on.
You are probably just right question remains will another team swoop in and out bid them like the Nats. Seen crazier things happen so we’ll see
Perfect fit for the Tigers, which is why Chris Ilitch will never do it.
I still think they believe in Torkelson
No, he isn’t. Terrible signing over 100 million
I don’t buy the Judge is moving to 1st so they can’t pursue long term contracts there narrative. By the time Judge is a liability in right Stanton is off the books or at the earliest on his last year and he won’t be taking at bats away from anyone by then I don’t care what he’s getting paid. With that being said Alonso is probably a Met. There is no point to adding Soto unless it’s in ADDITION to what you had last year, not as a replacement with minimal net positive results.
But is he really that good of a defensive 1B?
cmon Mariners, get it done.
The Polar Bear should give up baseball and become a wrestler or wrestle Brown bears.
Long Island beer league.
Savanah Bananas
This is exactly the play the A’s should make. No guaranteed payroll heading into Vegas and no stars to market around, Alonso, if he’s willing to sign for 5/$150 could be that guy. Just let him be Mark McGwire and mash dingers and don’t worry about the rest
He and Rooker could be the next Bash Brothers! I think that’s what McGuire and Canseco were called during their time with the Athletics.
I think the bigger question is how much money will he sign for.
I think he gets 9 figures
I think 6 years 150 million is fair but hes probably looking for 8 years 225 million
I want him nowhere near the Yankees unless it’s a 3 year deal for 75 million. Since I don’t see him taking that he’ll end up back witb the Mets. He will be kicking himself over the extension he turned down though. 1 dimensional aging players don’t get 7 year deals in today’s MLB.
I agree that the top 3 teams are the Mets, Astros and Nationals. I works be very surprised if anyone besides those 3 teams sign Alonso.
As far what he’s worth something like the predicted 5 years 125 sounds about right. Goldschmidt got 5 years 130 and he was a better player but that was an extension not a free agent deal and he was a year older I believe.
It sure won’t be with the cheapskate Cardinals.
I love the note on the White Sox, no sugarcoating is appreciated lol
If I’m the Mets I keep my powder dry for Guerrero Jr next year and backfill for one year. Alonso wouldn’t be a priority for me and I wouldn’t want to be on the hook for big dollars in year 3 and beyond of any K. That body will breakdown and when that one skill declines rapidly he will be a financial drag and roster black hole.
If Alonso is going to break down what do you think is going to happen to Guerrero?
I’d love to see what Alonso could do in Cincinnati.
If Alonso doesn’t get what Boras thinks is top dollar, he’s going to want opt-outs. But if he’s in a decline phase, that’s a very risky contract to give out.
I’m thinking Seattle
When was the last time the Mariners handed out a big free agent contract?
Robbie Ray who they later shipped off in a salary dump?
Ya that’s a good point and a point they brought up in the article too. I’m just wondering how big of a contract it will actually even be though. For instance, Cody Bellinger signed a 3 year $80 million dollar contract last year with the Cubs, I think it is going to be a figure more like that, which would be more Seattle’s style
Blue Jays don’t really have that much money to spend.
If the Rays wanted to make a splash with a new stadium coming down the road and to be able to market one of their own local superstars, they should pay whatever they need to within reason to get Pete Alonso. You start getting someone to be the face of your franchise who has notoriety in the area. It gets a lot of the younger kids interested as well as increasing attendance. Alonso has a great glove and also would bring some excitement to Rays games. As much as I like Yandy , he’s starting to get up there a little bit more injuries so if you want to get something for him, this should be the time to trade them. It might be a pie in the sky suggestion, but I think it could have some merit.
The Athletics temporary ballpark… Sutter Health Park, was home to the Sacramento River Cats of the Pacific Coast League. The PCL is known to have very hitter friendly ballparks. Wouldn’t hitters want to go there?
Mets or Yankees.
I’m a Mets fan, and I like Alonso, and this is my take…
I believe that the Mets are hoping that someone outbids them for Pete, and they won’t match it, unless it’s the Yankees. And I don’t think that the Yankees want him either. If they did they would have tried to show up the Mets right after the Soto signing.
My guess is that the Mets have a standing offer for him, maybe 5/125, which I believe is an overpay, and they told Boras to come back with a better offer that they would match. But Boras hasn’t found a better offer, so they’re in a standoff.
I also think that Stearns would prefer to sign Walker to a 2-3 year deal while they wait for Ryan Clifford or someone else in the system to develop, rather than committing 5 years to an aging player who looked completely lost at the plate this past year. Someone else said it, and they’re right, he’s a mistake fastball hitter, flails at the breaking balls, and obviously isn’t willing to be coached and make adjustments.
The Mets will take a PR hit for letting him go elsewhere initially, but unless he fixes his approach and swing and gets back on the track he was on earlier in his career, I only see continued decline. I almost liken it to another Boras client who they let walk and was ill advised by his agent – Mike Conforto. He walked away from a 5/125 deal on the table and look what happened with him. And just like in that case, Mets fans will say that they dodged a bad deal in letting Pete go.
The comments here are irrational and seem to be by haters and yankees fans…Waste of time really