The Orioles made one necessary rotation upgrade this week, signing Tomoyuki Sugano to a $13MM deal on Monday. That should be the first of multiple starting pitching acquisitions. Sugano projects as a back-of-the-rotation arm at this stage of his career. The O's need for an ace persists.
Baltimore addressed that last winter via trade. The O's acquired one year of control over Corbin Burnes for Joey Ortiz and DL Hall in what was GM Mike Elias' boldest trade to date. Burnes pitched as well as the O's could've expected, turning in a 2.92 ERA across 32 regular season starts to earn a fifth-place finish in Cy Young balloting. He fired eight innings of one-run ball in his lone postseason appearance. Unfortunately, the offense cratered down the stretch and scored a grand total of one run in their two playoff games. The Royals swept them by respective 1-0 and 2-1 margins.
Burnes is a free agent, leaving Elias and his staff on the hunt for another top-end arm. Where could they turn?
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Any starter on the Padres.
Padres are open for business.
#punting25
#firesale
Except Michael king (and probably yu darvish)
Yeah, no way they trade Darvish because he is their only chance at Sasaki – and there’s no way they are paying down money to trade a decent starter
Ahhh towinagain, have we learned nothing from last year…? It’s so sad to constantly see you sooooo depressed!
He claims to be a Padre fan, but he never exhibits “the Faith” that it takes to be a real one.
I’ve talked him off so many ledges that I’ve officially lost my voice. Just jump, towin.
Rent Montgomery for a year. AZ may even pay a little and no prospect capital. He is good and last year’s messed up routine was the outlier.
That thing is not an ace
You’re not going to replace Corbin Burns in this market without some luck.
But I think Jack Flaherty or Michael Lorenzen make some sense.
Can also debate whether Scherzer is worth the risk
Flaherty or Lorenzen would be suuuuuuuch an Orioles move.
Jordan Montgomery would be such a Mike Elias TOR pitcher
The Mets should be calling. Every hour, on the hour.
Miami: Braxton Garrett
Pittsburgh: Mitch Keller
St. Louis: Sonny Gray
Free Agent: Jose Quintana
Obviously, these are not top end, but they could be had.
Uh, the object is to win games
@Theo
the object is to make money.
Bryce Elder is terrible
Idk man. I’m an O’s fan and this is getting exhausting just discussing but if I know my O’s, it will probably be no one on this list just like Sugano. I pray we can just get Corbin on a short term high AAV deal with opt outs. That allows him to come back to a team that treated him well, will win, and while his kids are still young. Then eventually get his deal out west.
There is absolutely no reason for Burnes to take a short term deal. He’s pitched well the last couple years and deserves his money.
The Giants are apparently the only west coast team that’s offering that and what if it’s not the amount of money and years he wants. Then he’s locked into something long term he’s not completely satisfied with. Blue Jays are probably the only ones close to giving him $250m and he clearly doesn’t want to be there long term when he lives in Arizona. Plus, they suck. So you can’t just say for sure that’s there’s “no reason”. There’s a chance if the market isn’t shaping out quite the way he wished it would and could still retry next year with an opt out.
If that’s the case he will sign a long term contract with opt outs after the 1st or 2nd year if he truly doesn’t like the location team. But there is absolutely no reason to risk 50-100MM if he gets hurt or has a down year just cause of location/team.
@Bird4Life Not a chance. The most valuable thing Burnes has to sell, by far, is his age 30 season, and it and his age 31 season are a huge part of the lure that gets teams to sign pitchers like him, very good, not great, to 8 year deals. .
A short term high AAV deal, ie a one-year deal with an opt-out will cost you roughly 30% of the total. If Burns is in line for 8/240m, call it 1/$60m or if it’s a two year deal, call it 2/$110m then the opt out..
Imagine he takes the two year deal and opts out. What do you think he’ll get at age 32 after a 4-WAR then a 3.3 WAR season? 6/130m is probably about right, which fits the 2/110m this offseason. It might even be more than 110m since that’s just the value of the years in the context of the entire deal, whereas he’ll also want something extra to compensate for a severe injury that will kill his earning power in what would have been years 3 through 8 of the 8 year deal he could have signed.
If you want him to do you the favor of selling his most valuable year or two, you’ll pay through the nose for it..
I don’t disagree with you guys but what if the Giants are simply not offering player opt outs AND a longer term contract. You can’t have your cake and eat it too kinda thing. If they were, then why hasn’t he just signed there already? Maybe the orioles are offering that and he’s just waiting for the Giants to see if they free up some payroll. While I agree it’s very unlikely, I disagree with the “not a chance” perspective. We don’t know what’s being offered for a guy with declining SO rates and whiff rates that also can’t hold runners. I still want him for his bull dog mentality and durability but we all know how much analytics and Sabre metrics influence these deals too
The “safe and conservative” strategy gets old, doesn’t it? I see the O’s either getting a middle-rotation guy OR trading off prospects in the #5-10 tier for a better pitcher, but someone with only a year left.
Scherzer is kind of intriguing. He’s probably cooked but he’ll only be a one year commitment. For a team trying to pinch pennies, there are worse options.
Don’t know who but I do know when: late, real late.
I’m thinking beyond late. As in, they’re done adding SPs this off season. Going with the 3 headed TOR of Eflin, GRod, and Sugano. Plus, overall there’s enough SP to be competitive until Bradish and Wells are back.
Os should focus on another proven league level hitter … and with playoff experience. I like Gleyber Torres. True a down grade defensively but it’s more than worth the risk.
Flaherty? LMAO.
the funniest part of this weird response is that sasaki’s name was mentioned exactly zero times in the piece
Scherzer, Verlander & Sasaki. Instant championship.
Subtract the first two
@just_thinkin
What if I don’t want to save $3? Remember, people saving money doesn’t help the economy go round. We need people spending all their income and more to keep this economy going…
Go Burnes or go home.
Burnes is wildly overpriced. The O’s had the prospects to get Crochet. Should have done it.
Burnes isn’t the pitcher he was in 2021 or even 2022. If you’re going to spend a literal fortune you want someone like Gerrit Cole when he was still in his 6 WAR peak.
Burnes, though, after he dropped to 3.5 fWAR in 2023 and in 2024? No thanks. The decline in standards for #1 pitchers and what they give you has been significant, but the prices have only gone up. They’re the worst deals in the game.
Burnes’ FIP for 2023-2024 is 3.68. For someone like Sean Manaea it’s something like 3.86. Is that really worth an additional 4 years and an extra $140 million? No bloody likely.
David Stearns is on to something.
Gerrit Cole is just a 2 or 3. He’s not an ace. His 2024 injury won’t age well. He was wise not to opt out
Castillo for Mayo
Nope. Castillo for Mountcastle.
Nope
Ain’t happening, but Mayo+ for Miller or Woo is probably realistic.
And that’s probably where the hang up lies. Who will flinch first? I say the Orioles, as 3 affordable years (for top end pitcher) of Castillo, while not detracting from the mlb roster, is just too good to pass up.
Dillon Cease San Diego Padres.
AJ Preller is open for business for another blockbuster deal.
Padres need pitching, a MLB catcher, and a LF. What are you proposing? The Orioles have some interesting players that could be available.
Keep in mind that Preller reportedly asked for a steep package when the Red Sox asked him about Cease. A package that included their LF, a top 10 prospect in MLB, and a couple of pitchers.
I doubt he gets that, but that is what he was asking for. So start at least in that vicinity.
Looking at what they have available.
Coby Mayo 3B/1B/DH
Mayo is a poor fielding 3B with a cannon arm and serious power. He has no place to play right now with the Orioles. He might push Westburg or Mountcastle out at some point, but not yet.
Samuel Basallo C
With Rutschmann firmly entrenched behind the plate as one of the best young catchers in the game, Basallo is expendable. He was exposed when facing older pitching at AAA, but he was just about the youngest player at that level.
One of them would be a good headline piece for Cease.
Then you have even more prospects that a tier below. Just out of top 100 range.
Helton Kjerstad LF
They don’t believe Kjerstad is ready nor do they think he will be anytime soon because they signed O’Niell to a 3/50 deal. Kjerstad has 147 PA, so not rookie elligible, but even before getting those last 17 PA, he had fallen out of the top 100 prospects in mid-season updates. Still a great young prospect in my opinion.
Chase McDermott RHP
McDermott got a cup of coffee in the majors and struggled. His control issues followed him from AAA to the Orioles. He has walked 5.6 per 9 at AA and AA over the last 2 seasons. Good stuff. Bad command. At 26 he is not young anymore. The Orioles #5 prospect, but not a top 100 prospect or close.
Brandon Young RHP
Another 26 year old, Young is a 6’6″ pitcher that does not have overwhelming stuff, sitting 92.93 mph. Not what I expected when I saw his size. He is the prototypical back of the rotation type if he makes it to the majors.
Beyond those two, there are no other pitching prospects that are near MLB ready or that are in the upper part of their prospect lists
That leaves major league pitching.
Albert Suarez is 35 in 2025. That is a no.
Kyle Bradish is injured. TJ surgery. And won’t be back until June at the earliest. That is a no.
Not sure who else they have.
3 team trade that sends Mayo or Basallo plus Kjerstad and another SP to the Padres and Cease and another prospect to the Orioles?
Thank you for these prospect write-ups; found them helpful for my own research in case the Mariners decide to do the same for Castillo. Cheers
Honestly, I don’t think the O’s give up Basallo or Mayo for ANY one-year rental. I don’t even think they trade Kjerstad for any one-year rental. I think what the Padres could expect in any Orioles offer would be something comparable to what they traded for a year of Burnes. For Burnes, the O’s coughed up Joey Ortiz, left-handed pitcher DL Hall and a draft pick.
The O’s have one of the safest. most conservative front offices in the game, even with Angelos gone. They aren’t going to win a bidding war with a big market team and they aren’t going to trade a top prospect. Its predictable but frustrating.
Don’t trade Basallo!!!!!
Kjerstad will be in the lineup a lot.
Mullins can not play against lefties. O’Neill will be shielded from tougher righties. I won’t be surprised if he takes abs from Ohearn at some point either.
I can’t see any plausible scenario where Elias trades Mayo, Basallo, or Kjerstad for a 1 year rental.
You can always tell when non Orioles fans write up about our prospects. Mayo will NEVER push westburg off 3B. They LOVE westburg and Mayo is a liability on defense which sucks cuz it’s a waste of his arm. Future Mountcastle replacement. Write it in ink.
We would never trade him or basallo AND Kjerstad for one year of cease who is very talented but is inconsistent and not a guaranteed ace like burnes was, who btw they got for 5th rounder Joey Ortiz that everyone undervalued except the orioles and brewers. And then DL Hall who has a high ceiling but hasn’t put it all together yet.
Lastly why would we want a prospect in return? We just want to keep our guys and deal with a team that is more reasonable with the return like the brewers were last year. That clearly worked out for them. 5 more years of SS from plus defender and underestimated bat in Ortiz.
F’ing hilarious. None of those prospects will push the current players off their positions or ever be traded.
Morosi and Ian Browne both reported that the Padres asked the Red Sox for Abreu, Mayer, Fitts, and another starting pitching prospect in a trade for Cease. Do you seriously expect the Orioles to get him for less?
Also, did ALL of you miss the “Cease and another prospect to the Orioles” part of my post?
At this point in time, I don’t believe you get Mayo OR Basallo for 1 year of Cease.
Obviously you didn’t read my posts either.
Castillo is a great option. Halfway through his contract so less commitment. Should also hire away some of the M’s pitching development and training staff, the M’s seem to know how baby their arms and everyone seems to know the M’s are just as skinflint with off-field personnel salaries as on-field contracts.
The O’s just hired away Catie Griggs from the Mariners, so she must know people to hire.
“…everyone seems to know the M’s are just as skinflint with off-field personnel…” well I wasn’t aware of this per se, and it would be a damn shame if it was true…why would they want to shoot themselves in the foot by being cheap in an area that has been such a comparative success for them??? These off-field personnel who have been so great molding our pitchers should not cost excessive amounts. To go cheap in this area would be irrational and I hope it’s not true. Otherwise what’s the point of even trying to compete?
They can trade for Gilbert or Kirby or Miller while not breaking the bank they certainly have the prospects for it.
The O’s and M’s SHOULD be a match made in heaven and I would think they are talking about possibilities? The O’s have some minor league mashers who they aren’t going to trade for a rental. I love Mayo and Basallo and Kjerstad but we need a pitcher who is under control for a while. Also, the O’s are desperately trying to figure out the future of Mayo and Basallo because with Holliday and Westburg and Gunnar and Adley, things are a little tight at Camden Yards right now. The M’s need power. Let’s go.
SEA is not trading the first 2, doubtful Miller also
Stop hoarding prospects dum dums
For the O’s, this is the way…
The Orioles aren’t hoarding prospects though.
The MLB ready guys that were blocked (Ortiz, Norby, Stowers, etc.) have already been traded.
Are people who don’t subscribe to Front Office privileges allowed to comment on the pieces written for Front Office subscribers?
Apparently yes.
$1.99 per minute. First five minutes free
I dialed that 1-900 number you gave me, let’s just say that wasn’t the Gamblers Anonymous hotline
Anthony Franco ready to party
It is the last Friday before Christmas. Could be MLBTR Xmas Party, heard it’s going to be alcohol free this year; cuz last year there were some awkward moments, but we won’t get into that.
If I was invited I would still bring along the Houston Astros cheerleaders, shots in the limo before going in .
The Waiver Wire. Where else?
3 team trade
Orioles get Dylan Cease (Padres) Erick Fedde (Cardinals)
Padres get Sonny Gray (Cardinals) Heston Kjerstad (Orioles)
Cardinals get Trevor Rodgers as a reclamation project, prospects
Fill out rest of the deal as need be with prospects or cash moving around.
Why would SD take on an older pitcher at a higher cost for multiple years? They are already in dangerous salary territory. And there’s not much in this deal for STL to be excited about either. Not like Cease and Fedde are bringing back big name cornerstone type players. Neither SD nor BAL has back-end Top 100 guys to complete this deal. So STL would be taking a risk trying to pry a Mayfield or Honeycutt type guy who would be years away and risky. Individually I think either Cease, Fedde or Gray makes sense, but as a full 3-team deal, I see some big holes.
“ Fill out rest of the deal as need be with prospects or cash moving around.”
“ Why would SD take on an older pitcher at a higher cost for multiple years?”
Who says gray is more expensive? Cardinals kick in money he could be same or cheaper. And if they kick in money Gray will cost less than Cease will command in 2025 and 2026 giving padres 3 years of a rotation piece at a reduced cost
“ And there’s not much in this deal for STL to be excited about either. ”
I listed one player and said prospects lmao. How do you know there’s not much to be excited about in this year when i listed prospects
“ Not like Cease and Fedde are bringing back big name cornerstone type players. Neither SD nor BAL has back-end Top 100 guys to complete this deal.”
And quantity over quality makes up for lack of back end top 100 guys
You can always just say “prospects” and hope it works. What I did was look at your suggested teams’ systems and evaluate whether or not it made sense. It doesn’t as a full deal. The Cardinals aren’t going to trade their “ace” pitcher for a quantity deal of prospects unlikely to pan out. As I said in my first comment, any of those pitchers/deals individually makes a lot of sense and could easily be done, but all together it has big holes that can’t be filled with arbitrarily declared “prospects.”
Top 100 prospects are more likely to not pan out compared to a prospect package where you have a better chance to find a piece that works long term. Unless you’re in the elite top 25 top 100 prospects have a significant fail rate. Getting 1 dude hardly ever works compared to getting 4-5.
Cardinals are shedding salary. And letting young kids play. Cardinals could use an influx of new pitching prospects and some CF talent cough cough orioles. For team that’s essentially rebuilding giving younger players a chance to seize positions trading your aging ace makes more sense than you think esp for guys couple years away who will develop while your team deals with the rebuilding effect. Their star closer Hesley has also come up in trade rumors and are expected to trade him before spring trading. But sure they won’t listen to offers on gray lmao
It’d make sense to keep Gray and Fedde and Hesley if cardinals were retooling to compete but they’re not. They’re shedding salary and giving young players like walker saggese Siani/Scott etc chances. They’re entering a rebuilding phase.
You’re a little all over the place. In one comment you suggest the Cardinals pay down Gray’s salary so it works for SD’s salary restrictions, but now they get out of his contract during a rebuild the team is adament isn’t happening (it totally is, but teams can’t admit it for some reason)?
They have also stated no intention of dealing Helsley. While I agree with you in thinking that’s posturing and he will end up traded, they are not “expected” to trade him at this point. Especially not with the weak return Milwaukee got for Williams.
I also never said they won’t trade Gray. I said your particular deal doesn’t work. I could easily see Gray traded to Baltimore or any number of other teams (pending his no trade).
Fill out rest of the deal as need be with prospects or cash moving around.
==========================
Not a fan of either team, but I think that’s well-balanced. But the $65M/2 due to Gray might just be too negotiate down. I think the Padres are still looking to get under the cap.
Time to surrender another prospect or three. Unfortunately, that’s how the game is played.
What happened to the new Orioles ownership group having lots of money and spending it? It looks like that was nothing more then hot air.
Huh?
Our payroll is already like $40 million up from last year and we’re still actively shopping for a TOR SP.
Your payroll is 129m and was 109m last year. Not 40 million dollar difference. You are not shopping for a TOR SP.
That includes trade deadline additions like Eflin and Dominguez.
Rubenstein took over just before the season began last year and the opening day payroll that John Angelos had approved was about $93 million.
They messed up when they didn’t trade for Skubal.
They could have gone into the playoffs with the first two AL all-star starters.
How the hell were they going to trade for Skubal…when the Tigers said they ain’t trading Skubal
when the Tigers said they ain’t trading Skubal
========================
But would the tigers have said no if the Os offered up Holliday?
Agree! Tigers were listening on offers for Skubal.
Orioles gave them a “lowball” offer
Orioles could have made the World Series and maybe even won it with Burns, Skubal pitching 1,2 in the playoffs and WS.
Orioles hoarding prospects may have cost them a trophy and rings.
And, yes the Tigers would have traded Skubal in a blockbuster deal for the right deal. But, the Orioles would not part with top young prospects and/or young major leaguers.
I’m curious if you know that the orioles lost 2-1 and 1-0 in the playoffs?
Boy oh boy an “ace” would’ve saved us!
Pitching isn’t the reason the Orioles got bounced from the playoffs.
Skubal would have changed absolutely nothing.
DET was never trading him
i don’t believe that for a second… but they were not going to give him away either.
The orange birds messed up IMO because they had the talent to trade for him and they still would have had him for two more seasons. It was going to take a haul to get him but rightfully so,.
Package up Coby Mayo and Heston Kjerstad, and they can get just about any starter they want except Paul Skenes.
So the Orioles with their new owner doesn’t want to spend the money needed to add a #1?
Affirmative.
I read somewhere it was Elias who didn’t want to spend. It really is odd that he is given the bankroll but doesn’t want to use it.
With the number of teams looking for third base help, he might not have to. Coby Mayo could be very high in demand. And if they elect to keep Mayo, Jordan Westburg is an excellent consolation prize.
They deleted my post bc I made light fun of the $3 subscription fee. Lol. Real thin skins around here