One year removed from an offseason that saw the Padres radically alter the direction of their franchise by paring down on payroll and trading superstar Juan Soto to the Yankees, San Diego once again finds itself in something of a financial pickle. The club is expected to maintain its payroll level from 2024 headed into 2025; according to RosterResource, that’s a budget of $169MM and a luxury tax payroll that falls below the first threshold (which sits at $241MM in 2025). Getting to that level of payroll may be easier said than done, however, as the Padres are currently projected for a payroll just under $210MM in 2025 with a luxury tax payroll of $244M, just above the first threshold.
That leaves the club likely looking to pare down payroll by around $40MM this winter, and they’ll surely be hoping to make additions to the team in spite of those cuts. The Padres will need to add at least one starter to pair with a trio of Dylan Cease, Michael King, and Yu Darvish this winter, and the departure of Jurickson Profar leaves a void in left field, not to mention the losses of role players David Peralta and Donovan Solano weakening the club’s lineup at DH and on the bench. Of course, any players the club parts ways with to reduce payroll will surely create new holes that need to be filled, leaving A.J. Preller and the club’s front office in a bit of a pickle.
One avenue the Padres could use to reduce payroll this year runs through Luis Arraez. The club acquired the 27-year-old back in May, and he generally played fairly well during his time in San Diego this year with a .318/.346/.398 slash line that was good for a 111 wRC+ and earned him the third consecutive batting title of his career. A contact savant who has managed to reduce his already impressive 10% strikeout rate from 2021 to 7.1% in 2022, 5.4% in 2023, and 4.3% this past year, Arraez struck out an unbelievable 3.4% of the time during his time with the Padres. As an above-average hitter who is more reliable than anyone else in the game when it comes to putting the bat on the ball, it’s easy to see why Arraez has been attractive enough to clubs that both the Marlins and Padres have given up significant packages to land him in recent years.
That preternatural knack for contact is held back by Arraez’s lackluster plate discipline causing his walk rate to decline steadily alongside his strikeout rate over the years and a complete lack of power, however. Both of those flaws were on full display in 2024, as Arraez walked at a 3.6% clip with an ISO of .078, which both ranked third from the bottom among qualified major league hitters. While it’s possible that the thumb injury Arraez played through this year before undergoing surgery in October could have impacted him in the power department, but even his career-high .115 ISO with the Marlins last year landed just outside the bottom ten among qualified hitters. Between those flaws in his hitting profile and his lackluster defense that largely limited him to first base and DH with the Padres, it’s also easy to see why both the Twins and Marlins were willing to part ways with him on the trade market in recent years.
Could Arraez be dealt for the third year in a row this winter? Doing so is perhaps the simplest path to slashing a significant chunk of payroll for the Padres. Cease and King are both projected by MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz for hefty arbitration salaries, but neither reaches the $14.6MM figure Arraez is currently penciled in for. Clearing that money off the books would drop the Padres’ payroll to around $195MM. While San Diego would then need to replace Arraez at first base headed into next year, a number of bats at the position including former Padres Josh Bell, Ty France, and Anthony Rizzo figure to be available for a relative bargain this winter, meaning it should be fairly easy for the club to replace Arraez in the lineup and still come out $10-12MM ahead, not to mention that the return for Arraez’s services could help to plug holes in the rotation or outfield. Those motivations behind a potential deal were enough to land Arraez the 17th spot on MLBTR’s Top 35 offseason trade candidates list.
With that being said, a trade of Arraez isn’t the only option at the Padres’ disposal as they look for ways to pare down payroll. He’s already indicated this winter that he would be open to an extension with the club this winter as he stares down his final year under team control before free agency, and the Padres have regularly worked out contracts that offer the club additional financial flexibility in the short-term and the player additional security in the long term in the past. That includes deals that comes together just before a player is due to reach free agency, such as the extensions they’ve offered to Darvish and Manny Machado in recent years.
If Arraez were amenable to it, it’s easy to imagine the Padres back-loading the deal to reduce his 2025 salary significantly and/or offering a lower AAV over a longer term in order to duck under the luxury tax threshold. As one example, a six-year deal worth $60MM would come with an AAV of just $10MM, allowing the club to shave ~$4.6MM of its expected luxury tax bill for 2025. Meanwhile, if the deal was structured such that Arraez made just $5MM in the first year of the deal followed by $11MM salaries over the rest of the contract, that would offer the Padres nearly $10MM in savings on their 2025 payroll as compared to his arbitration salary- a figure not that different than what they’d save by trading him and replacing him with a low-cost veteran.
Those numbers are purely hypothetical, of course, and it’s certainly possible Arraez would not want to lock into a deal with such a relatively low annual salary without first seeing what’s available to him on the open market. That’s not the only flaw in the plan of extending Arraez, either; while a deal with a similar structure to the one mentioned above would be a major help in solving San Diego’s immediate payroll concerns for 2025, in a longer-term view it simply kicks the can down the road to next season when Arraez’s salary would shoot up by $6MM and could leave the club in the same financial jam they find themselves in now.
If you were in the Padres’ shoes, would you look to deal Arraez elsewhere this winter and replace him at first base, attempt to extend him long-term, or simply play out the season and cut payroll elsewhere? Have your say in the poll below!
Most overrated player in baseball. They should have non-tendered him at $14m+.
I actually think Soto is more overrated.
“Soto is more overrated”…It’s hard to be a great hitter and also “overrated”, but Juan Soto has clearly accomplished this feat.
Soto is overrated… he walks and he will continue to do that now that he will get his payday… he also is an awful outfielder with a weak arm and a slow runner.
No, it’s really not that hard. Being overrated doesn’t mean he can’t also be good. Soto is a very good hitter, but people act like he’s the second coming of Ted Williams. There is a word for that, it’s called “overrated.”
Dude …
Good hitter, can’t field a ball worth a damn…
@ lowtalker1,
Soto is heading into his age 26 season. Still very young. There’s no reason why he can’t improve defensively and on the bases.
Soto’s arm strength is in the 48th percentile.
Sprint speed 26.8 feet per second which is in 36th percentile. 27.0 is considered average by Statcast. He has been in the 60th percentile at 27.3. in 2019.
In 2022, his arm strength was in the 56th percentile.
His range in 2019, was in the 90th percentile.
There’s plenty more to unlock even above his career highs. He’s a young man whose fallen into neglecting his other tools beyond his superior plate skills.
And that I might add someone capable of becoming a .300 hitter again by reducing his K’s.
Soto hit .288 with a .569 and 41 home runs. He did far more than take a walk.
Hits for average, power, draws walks. Gets on base better than anyone since the days of Barry Bonds. I find it hard to consider someone overrated when able to do all of that. There are very few 5 tool players anymore and almost none of them excell in anything other than defense and baserunning, which don’t matter much if you can’t hit.
Dipping into the egg nog early?
Soto is actually a good hitter with power. Arraez can’t hit anything more than lame duck singles
Soto is the second best pure hitter of his generation, unless you consider Trout in the same generation. Second only to his current teammate. To argue otherwise is just silly.
whats better? A duck fart single, or a strikeout?
duck fart singles seem to start alot of big innings or rallys.
with Luis Arraez you have to throw away all sabermetric stuff and just look at the obvious. Hitting is hard, hitting starts rallys, and luis arraez hits. and he hits alot.
If I need to move a runner over I’ll take Arraez. If I need literally anything else done on a baseball field I’ll take someone else
Winning three batting titles in a row with three different teams surely is overrated
It is indeed overrated when he posts empty averages with only decent OBPs and no power.
Meanwhile, he’s not even a decent defensive first baseman
Boggs, Gwynn, and Carew at least had the OBP. Especially Boggs. He’d get over 200 hits and draw a ton of walks.
Hos OBP the last 3 years is .372. That’s top 10 and rare to find these days.
Trade him so he might win a fourth title with a fourth team. That would be incredible.
Trade him to the Red Sox so he can play with that other wildly overated player, Juan Soto. Would the Padres take Abreu for him?
I don’t think anyone is over rating him. He’s rated as one of the best contact hitters in baseball with a serviceable glove.
Serviceable is an overrating in and off itself
He does alright at first. I’ve seen worst defenders… such as the two corner outfielders on the Phillies
He’s got an average major league glove. You put him on your team for his bat. I don’t understand your confusion.
Over that last 2 seasons he has -27 OAA. He is a trash defender who barely makes up for his negative defensive value with his bat
That’s ridiculous! 3.4% K rate is a unicorn stat in today’s baseball. His value to Padres is even greater considering how difficult it is to hit in that park. And the padres were one of the best two or three teams in baseball once they acquired him. Better than they were with Soto in the lineup.
I mean his walk rate is also a unicorn stat, kind of brings down the value of the K rate.
Not really. Not when his consistent hit skill has him with a 3 year obp of 3 years
Just because the Padres did better without Soto doesn’t mean they’re better off with Arraez over him.
Let’s normalize not using “unicorn” to describe things in sports. It’s not a children’s book, it’s baseball.
Totally agree. For all of his bat to ball skills the dude was worth 1 war this season. Carlos Santana is 39 and had a 2.5 war in the same amount of games, hits homers and can actually play first base, and he would probably be around 10 million cheaper.
WAR is a nice start but don’t use it to devalue what an elite bat Arraez has. it’s helped him net a .372 obp which is like the
@knicks, when you’re BA is 323, I expect that obp to be at minimum 400. Even when he had an 354 BA he couldn’t get his obp up to 400. And for all that getting on base he steals less than 10 bases per season.
Nick says Friars have a “financial pickle,” but I say it’s no big dill.
You’ve got to be kidding !! … “Overrated” ? … LUIS ARRAEZ has won three consecutive batting championships (and has accomplished such an amazing feat in both leagues)…. This article by Nick Deeds could have some “analytics” value, but ‘leaves a lot to be desired’ in terms of baseball savvy !!
I believe “lack of savvy” goes the opposite direction.
Also,the padres were not willing to part with a considerable package as they took fish to the cleaners in that trade.
It’s not taking them to the cleaners if they trade him for less value not even one year later.
Sign Paul Goldschmidt.
Genuinely curious as to what you think makes him overrated?
Batting average is almost literally irrelevant to a player’s value. That’s why.
Not when the BAT generates a talkative high OBP.
Sometimes all you can say is “lol”
What is it about this guy that everybody seems to want to get rid of him? All he does is hit. Seems like some team might find that interesting. Is he really that bad in the field that you can’t play him anywhere? I mean there’s a DH for a reason now. Seems like a guy who can hit would be perfect for that job.
He changed the dynamics of the padres lineup. We started clicking when he got here. I’d rather trade cease – he’d get more back anyways.
Why would you trade Cease after giving up all that to get him that’s a terrible argument!
It’s the analytics nerds who look at nothing but analytics.
He was awful in the playoffs because when stuff turns up in October you need to actually have some slug in the bat. His noodle singles
Damn_Yankees,
Did you come up with “analytics nerds” all by yourself? Very clever.
An empty batting average with poor defense or baserunning contributions lead to a player with limited value. It doesn’t take much analytics to see that.
Arraez was 9% better than the average hitter last year, and provides absolutely no value on the field and on the basepaths. You’re paying $15M for someone who should be DH-only whose floor is a league average hitter and whose ceiling is slightly above that. Just not worth it.
Cash – correct, he was that in 2024, but in 2023 his slash was .354/.393/.469, with OPS+ of 128 (and OPS+ was 128 in 2022 as well). As a White Sox fan I hated watching that guy come up in any situational AB as well, knowing that he absolutely was going to make contact and not make a wasted out. That’s not in OPS+, but it absolutely matters and keeps innings moving.
But yeah, he’s a negative WAR defender.
With little to no power as well….definition of a one tool player.
He has averaged 20% over league average the last 3 seasons.
He is at the top of the charts in situations with RISP and RISP with 2 outs.
He had a WAR in the 4s when he played 2B in 2022 and 2023.
He has no power and he takes so few walks that his on base percentage has become very average. There are many decent power hitters who can post on base number s similar to his.
If he can boost his power (which seems unlikely) or improve his walk rate, then his overall offensive production would be solid.
Also, a DH who has no power is not really appealing to most if not all teams.
A .346 OBP is far from average.
He was worth all of 1.1 WAR last year, same as Vinnie Pasquantino and Mauricio Dubon. And in terms of WAR per 600 PA’s, for above-replacement players, he was one of the worst in baseball.
Well the padres actual win loss record with him and without him would beg to differ.
Two words: Jackson Merrill. Also they got healthy finally and had two Cy Young finalists.
Seam, he was 12th in WAR among players that played 60 plus games as a DH. Just behind Suzuki and in front of O’Hara.
Not true. His OBP the last year was top 30 in mlb but higher than most other Padres not named Profar.
The .371 OBP Arraez has had from 2022-2023 is 56 points above average. The .346 he had last season is 34 points above average.
Nope ! The writers and commentators here vastly over value defense
Big whiffa Brian Cashman didn’t think defense was important and the Yankees got curb stomped by a team that did.
Joe, the Yankees had better defense as a team than the Dodgers.
Brian Cashman had nothing to do with the defensive collapse in the WS. How often is Judge going to bobble a routine fly? How often is GG winner and runner-up Volpe going to man’s a bad throw? How often will Cole fail to cover 1b. It was more of a team being flustered and mentally distracted than anything else. Not saying we can’t improve at some positions but the gafarcles made in the WS were outliers for the most part.
You’re right, ALL he does is hit. Doesn’t walk, no power, can’t run, can’t field. Weird player. Will be a future fun piece of trivia for his batting titles.
“All he does is hit”
You said it yourself. That’s the problem.
Because despite the BA, he’s the type of player that once that BA goes away, all of his percentages are so close to his BA that they quickly fall to where this guy will have an OBP under .300 even when he’s hitting .250. That’s one of the reasons for the modern emphasis on OBP. A young Joc Pederson would have a .230 BA but would still at least have a league average OBP. If you want to see true value in a batting champ, look up Wade Boggs.
But while hes an elite hitter, his obp has way more value than someone with a similar OBP who relies more on BB. Hits will always be more correlated w runs than BB bc they generate movement where runners can advance more than one base at a time.. where misplays happen to allow extra bases. Its strange how people forget this and overvalue BB. I agree theyre more reliable to continue as players age, but a consistently high avg high obp player has more run generating value. And his WRC+ is 123 last three years, and he played last year w a bad shoulder. If anything this guy is undervalued in todays game.
Someone with a lower BA but similar OBP typically hits for more power (Max Muncy, Kyle Schwarber), which generates more runs than a bunch of singles.
There’s more than one way to be a productive hitter, but OBP and SLG correlate better to run scoring than BA, while acknowledging a high BA often contributes to a high OBP.
Gbs, there are only 11 players with a better OBP over the last 3 years. A single is 21% more valuable in creating runs than a walk and Arraez’s OBP contains few walks.
The guys with similar OBP were Mookie Betts, Jose Altuve, and Christian Yelich.
Schwarber was at .344 and Muncy at .337. Not comparable to .371 for Arraez
This guy truly ended up in the wrong era. He’s a Hall of Famer in the 70s or 80s.
So true
Fans of a certain age still find value in the Carew-ian nature of Arraez
I’d LOVE to have him on the Phillies….plus, we might actually have a true leadoff hitter for a change. Maybe the Pads would like a package with Bryson Stott in the mix?
I am with you Bake. I would love to have him as the Mets DH for the next several years. I openly acknowledge that he provides no value on defense.
Carew walked 100 times each year. Such greatly increased his on base percentage.
dewey,
Carew never walked more than 78 times in a season, but he had 11 seasons walking more than 50 Arraez topped out at so far.
However, Carew’s first time topping 50 walks was when he was 27, so maybe Arraez also will learn to walk more often. I doubt it, but it’s not impossible.
GBS. Carew, who was one of my favorite players in the early 1970s, had a .379 OBP, .411 SLG, and .790 OPS from age 25-27. Arraez had a .371 OBP, .426 SLG, and .797 OPS from age 25-27.
I like this. Let’s expand it to Arraez and their R Suarez(Robert) for our R Suarez (Ranger) and Stott. We’d have to likely throw in a prospect or a guy like Jose Ruiz but that helps their payroll and fills a couple needs on both sides. I’d rather dump Walker on them but that’s probably a non starter. Sign Quantrill for the 4-5 spot in the rotation and hopefully Painter/Abel ready by mid season. .
I’ve been dreaming of him in the Phillies lineup since he was in Minnesota. It would be a dream to have someone you know is going to get on base in front of the boppers.
Lots of guys get on base better than Arraez.
Seam, that’s just not true. 11 players got on base at a higher rate from 2022-2024.
Stott is WAY more valuable than Arraez.
Seam, not as a 2B. When Arraez played primarily 2B in 2022 and 2023 his WAR was higher than Stott.
Disagree…voters are still voting for him as evidence by his 3 straight years of MVP votes. If he can triple his current stats he will have a decent shot to get in the HOF. The wrong era agreement is a false narrative. People on MLBTraderumors don’t vote for the HOF….
“If he can triple his current stats” is asking for quite a lot.
.323 career hitter and one of the toughest to strike out in recent memory. Just because he isn’t trying to hit 50 homers in a season, people get down on him. I’d keep him.
You know a single is the same thing as a walk right? In fact a walk’s better, because it uses up more pitches. The fact that he hits a lot of singles is irrelevant. Just look at his on-base percentage, which is good but not great. That’s it. That’s all he gives you.
No a single isn’t the same as a hit. If no runners are on then sure. If runners are on a single is way more valuable.
I remember being taught that as a kid and never believed it. What I learned about walks is that you want to replace outs with walks. It’s always better to have that while fueling OBP with a higher BA. Walks use more pitches and extend innings, opening up more scoring opportunities because something will eventually give, whether it’s a surprise HR or a mistake by the defense. The best hitters draw walks and still get their hits. Outs lower a player’s BA. But more walks keep that BA from falling as fast. So then you get your hits and do more damage with the bat overall.
Yes but a single on the first pitch saves the pitcher 5, 6 pitches, which is a big difference. Getting into the soft side of the bullpen is basically the whole offensive strategy of good teams.
Seam, he averages 4.46 p/pa in the first AB of the game. He averages 4.24 p/pa with runners on base. He is in the top 10 in both.
Why do you hate him so much even when his actual stats tell a different story than the one you are trying to tell?
A single is not the same as a walk for two reasons. First, runners can often advance two bases on a single. Second, putting the ball in play opens up the possibility of defensive errors.
I’ll add to that Dunsel.
If you window shop, you’re looking at 3-6 pitches. If you have contact skills, you can run a pitch count up well over 6 pitches in a single at bat.
Contact skills allows many more situational plays by being able to place a ball in an area you desire and produce a higher % result.
Having the profile of contact/no power probably means the defensive alignment is more favorable for stolen bases while Arraez is at bat.
So you have runners on 2b and 3b , still think a single is the same as a walk?
The pitch count has become more irrelevant in modern baseball. Most teams bullpens are better than their starter. Why are you looking to see a new pitcher every inning throwing 100? A hit is way more valuable than a walk.
Arraez saw fewer pitches per plate appearance (3.5) than almost all his teammates last season. ahead of only Tatis and Campesano.
Seam, a walk has a 21% lower RC value than a single. His OBP is .371 from 2022-2024 which is 56 points above average and in the top 12. That is great. That he did it with mostly hits means it’s more valuable in creating runs than if he did it with mostly walks. He is top of the charts with RISP.
How does one pair with a trio?
They failed to do what I thought was the best move, which was to non-tender him. I suppose they thought that with his thumb injury as an excuse for his poor performance, he’d have decent trade value and they’d be able to infuse ML talent like the Soto deal did. I’m just not sure what team is willing to bite; the return the Marlins got was half-decent, but they had to pay all of his salary. The Padres have put themselves in an unnecessary pickle.
LOL, an excuse for his poor performance? He won the batting title.
With a broken thumb.
The bigger question is: Where’s the fit? The demand for a low power, low walk DH is, well, low. That’s where you put your hitters who are weak defensively. I think he would do well hitting where there’s a big outfield like Comerica Park, but there isn’t a fit unless the Tigers dump Torkelson.
He could slot in at second if you could move Colt Keith elsewhere. Arraez would actually be an upgrade defensively at 2nd over Keith, as well as offensively. And yes, Arraez would be otherworldly at Comerica.
Not only Arraez, but Suarez should be offered up. Padres have depth in pen and moving his $10M salary for 2025 helps. Also the annual, can they unload the Cronenworth contract?
This guy is a legend if he played 20-30 years ago.
Reds will take cease and arreaz. Lodolo is only making 2 mil next season….
I’d release him altogether if that is possible. I doubt he gets +$10M as a FA.
I’d take him on the Yankees to lead off in a heartbeat. Leads off and gets on base at a great clip. Especially if we get Soto back? Super valuable.
It would be better for the Padres to unload Cronenworth, assuming they can.
In that scenario the team should slide Arraez back to second and hope for a rebound on offense and defense. If they can land Carlos Santana for say, $8 million, that pushes the team a few hundred thousand below the CBT payroll threshold Swapping out Solano, Profar and Peralta for a couple of league minimum players raises the gap to $1.1 million or so.
Obviously that’s not ideal and leaves minimal margin of error in the event of injuries, but it leaves the rotation and starting lineup and bullpen intact. IMO, that’s the best case scenario.
I’d keep him at DH
Sign an actual 1B
Keep cronenworth at 2B
If you need to move anyone it should be cease who could bring back cheap production for 6 years.
Twins would be an interesting destination for Cease for say Luke Keaschall, Andrew Morris, and Cj Culpepper.
I say extend him and play him at first. A guy you can rely on in a put the ball in play situation and he can get on base. He is one of the few true leadoff hitters left in the game and people seem to value power over contact, which is fine. But it is nice to have a guy that regularly gets on base in front of your big bats. All the power bats the Pads have, he is very valuable to them and they should definitely keep him around.
Their GM said he would not be winning a batting title with a 4th team. I took that to mean he was keeping him.
40 years ago a guy who wins 3 straight batting titles with a strikeout rate under 5% would be a superstar, just like Tony Gwynn.
Tony Gwynn was also a great defensive outfielder and stole nearly 60 bases at his peak.
I would take him on the dodgers since we will need to improve our bench. Padres and dodgers let’s make this happen.
Below-HECK NO
Trade him to the Yankees
I feel like it’s likely he stays and plays out his contract.
Cronenworth and Suarez are more likely trade candidates. They could move cease but given their pitching needs he is prob less likely.
But the poll doesn’t accommodate that common sense answer
Arraez, Suarez and Eguy Rosario to Toronto for Bo Bichette.
Really appreciate articles like this from Nick and the rest of the MLBTR team. When the offseason is slow like it is currently (if it early and a holiday break, after all), articles like this make continuing the check MLB Trade Rumors worth it (even though it’s free for a non-subscriber like myself).
Yeah i don’t even agree with the premise of the article but I always appreciate a good conversation starter and this is certainly that. It’s stuff like this that makes it my favorite website.
The reds should take him. I’d love to have arraez at the dish with elly on base.
Idk the reds have no lead off hitter now..
Friedl, by default.
Shoot him a 3 year deal, leave him at dh most days and go out and get an everyday first basemen.
3 straight batting titles
Yet it feels like noone wants him
He’s a good hitter, but he has a one-tool profile which is always risky. If his batting average drops to .290, then there’s reason for concern. He’s stuck at 1B and DH, has seen his walk rate go down each of the last two seasons, and has never hit for power.
Arraez feels like he’s in this weird grey area. He’s good enough to get regular playing time, but he’s sort of a positionless player. That limits Arraez to Dh/1B, and the Padres could probably afford an upgrade there.
To me the question in any situation like this is who would be an upgrade for the same money?
I remember all the Padres fleeced them comments. Now Bendix is sitting with the Pads 2023 first rounder & Marsee instead of making a $15MM decision on Arraez.
Marsee who was hitting .180 in aa and had .733 ops in the hitter friendly PCL where pitchers could average .800 or better?
And some dude in single a?
Oh no!
The marlins gm would either pick up the option on arraez in a heart beat since marlins are running a ridiculously low 70 mill payroll for 2025 currently. What’s it gonna hurt to pick up arraez if he was still with the marlins?
Or
Decline him in a heartbeat cause they’re cheap and trying to stay cheap for some weird reason.
Whatever decision they’d make it pretty quickly and wouldn’t have to think about it.
Padres got 2 years of a player that had a major league batting title and pushed them across the goal line into the playoffs. The Marlins got Head, a kid that struggled in low A ball, Marsee who struggled to a .200/.661 line last season and was not a top 100 prospect at the time of the trade, and Martorella who is a one dimensional prospect in AA who ended the season at .229/.691 at that level.
That was a win for the Padres. Someday the Marlins may see one of those three play for them in Miami. That day will not come in 2024 or 2025.
Great trade scenario with the M’s since Padres needs starting pitching. Come on, Jerry Dip-oto, get on it.
Not sure why so many people are down on him. Arráez is a valuable complementary piece, in the right situation, kind of a poor man’s Tony Gwynn, the “contact savant” minus the speed and plus defense. In an era of continuously declining batting averages and record-breaking strikeout totals, his ability to hit .300 stands out even more. In a TTO-heavy lineup that drives up pitch counts, he can interrupt too much of unproductive outs. On defense he could potentially be a utility 1b/2b, rotate through DH, and be on the field most backing up fly ball pittchers
interesting how ty france was originally a padre. maybe preller should try something called “player development”
Have you heard of Jackson Merrill?
Ty France just got DFA.
This guy racks up 200 hits every season. That’s valuable for any team.
If you don’t have the need to pare down payroll, you just ride it out probably. But with the budget crunch as a reality, I think you trade one of Arraez or Cronenworth. 2B isn’t a hard position to fill and maybe there’s a need sooner than later to make room for Bogaerts. So if you could trade Cronenworth, you clear the position and the payroll after next year and Arraez could play 2B this year where he’d represent more value. If you think Arraez can’t play 2B, then finding a trade partner who does probably represents a good opportunity to get decent value in a trade.
Cronenworth is unfortunately an extremely hard contract to trade. Length of terms works against the team and he has a limited no trade clause. But yes, all means should be made to move him. And I would move Arraez and Suarez too. Go after SP, SS and OF. Bullpen has depth. Trade from depth with your closer. He is a $10M hit to payroll in 25.
Yeah, I figured that Cronenworth wouldn’t be an easy contract to trade, but I think that’s the context within which to view Arraez as a trade candidate. Trading Cronenworth probably is the best for the books in the longer term.
But if you can’t do it, his existence makes Areaez the next best opportunity for reallocating resources. I’m coming from a totally dispassionate outsider view though. It sounds like a lot of Padres fans here like the way the roster functions with Arraez on it. Personally, I think you might miss the defensive alignment with Kim in it. But again, that comes from a limited eyes on view of the team.
He’s in the wrong era. He’ll never be popular with the home run, strike out or walk crowd today.
“The club is expected to maintain its payroll level from 2024 headed into 2025; according to RosterResource, that’s a budget of $169MM and a luxury tax payroll that falls below the first threshold (which sits at $241MM in 2025).” Wait! I was told by members of this site a year ago that Kevin Acee was full of crap when he said the Padres 2024 payroll would be less than $200 million, down from 2023’s high of $253 million. I want those members to personally apologize to Mr. Acee. Websoulsurfer/BaseballIsLife
Their payroll wasn’t 168 mill
Cause of CBT reasons they were around 223 mill in 2024 per fangraphs. The CBT threshold last year was 237 mill.
Fangraphs also projects their 2025 payroll to be about 230 mill for CBT reasons and the first CBT threshold is 241 mill
Try not to let random people get under your skin so much. It’s a website. It’s suppose to be fun.
fangraphs.com/roster-resource/payroll/padres?seaso…
Yeah that definitely happened I can speak to that. Lot of Padres fans got weirdly defensive. Muted many of them.
We all want our team to win and do well. But these arguments about payroll can get a little inappropriate. I really wish there was a salary cap and floor so sports can be what it’s supposed to be about fair competition.
I am fairly certain that far more of them muted you than vice versa.
Their payroll wasn’t $168 million. It was $231 million.
He needs to be a DH
Any team interested???
He needs to be a 2B. Did you notice his WAR when he was in 2022-2023?
Slashing another $40 million off the payroll? How did the Padres revenue crash by $80 million per year? Can anyone show us that?
They lost their regional sports network deal. That had to hurt financially.
According to interviews with their President and considering the fact that they went from receiving revenue sharing and getting the extra draft pick to paying it over the last 3 seasons I don’t think their revenue went down. I think the writers is a hack with a bias.
Three consecutive batting titles with 3 different teams. Is walk that important if you’re already getting a single?
OBP is important but if that is high getting there via a single is more valuable than a walk.
Let the Millenials and Gen Z keep living the illusion of wRC+.
we’ll take him and put him in the leadoff spot.
Let boomers yeet themselves into the forever box.
You Millenials and Gen Z work for Boomers.
So bring me my coffee and pay attention and you might actually learn something
Most work for gen x. Boomers are mostly retired trying to figure out how to print a pdf or send money to a Nigerian scammer pretending to be Burt Reynolds.
You have nobody working for you. Stop trying to be successful by association.
You’ve got to be kidding !! … “Overrated” ? … LUIS ARRAEZ has won three consecutive batting championships (and has accomplished such an amazing feat in both leagues)…. This article by Nick Deeds could have some “analytics” value, but ‘leaves a lot to be desired’ in terms of baseball savvy !!
I respect the 3 batting titles but also would want power and a better glove from first.
DFA him. He’s cooked.
That high contract rate helps move runners over and facilitate hot and runs. So there’s added value behind the average and obp.
That said, $14 million is about right for his total value so I don’t think trading him will fill other holes.
At this point, let him play out the year.
I think he is misplaced as a leadoff hitter. He does not run all that well and doesn’t steal bases. He isn’t instant offense like some leadoff hitters with power. And doesn’t take walks. He would be better off hitting in the 4th to 6th spot when guys are on base that he could drive in with a single or occasional double. Might be good in hit and run situations with speed ahead of him. I thought he should have hit behind Tatis and Merrill.
They should hit him leadoff
He was playing with a torn ligament in his thumb was in pain . He still played through it won batting title . Like to see him after the surgery and 100% .
Arraez BA runners on base: .358
Arraez BA runner on 2nd: .512
Arraez BA RISP: .366
Arraez BA 9th inning: .380
Arraez BA behind in count: .302
Seems like an ideal #2 hitter
Just wrote that I thought Padres made a mistake not hitting him 2nd and you had all the stats here already.
How many pitches per plate appearance with men on base? Running up a pitchers pitch counts when men are on base is so important.
Exactly what I was thinking. Hitting after Lindor on the Mets would be super; 32% of those stolen bases would be first and third. I don’t know what the Padres need but the Mets could deal McNeil, or Marte and put McNeil in right. Probably have to take on some salary there. He was a valuable fielder as a 2B. Above or equal to average at 2B. That 3.4% K rate was insane. 96.6% of the time he put the ball in play or walked.
Yo! Mr. Crane, this guy. Please?!?!
Trade him to the Red Sox who are going to sign Soto and move Devers to DH. NESN reported that only Red Sox and Mets still in running.
Nick Deeds is a Sporting News level writer. He ignores facts to post his opinion and gets that wrong most of the time. Other than the fact that he will work at hours of the day that the actually decent writers on this site like Steve Adam’s won’t, why does he have a job?
Does he realize that the site he works for already posted links to articles where the team in question said the opposite of what he is claiming here?
Was considering paying for a membership, but with a large percentage of the articles being written by this hack I can’t in good conscience do so.
Arraez owned a wRC+ 130 line in 2022 and 2023, and yeah, I think a torn thumb ligament which required surgery would probably impact his game a bit.
He doesn’t have a lot of defensive utility, but OAA is the only metric which truly hates his defense. UZR and DRS are pretty neutral at 2B.
It has boggled my mind a bit as to why Arraez hasn’t put more effort into improving his speed and athleticism. His throwing speed has been dropping rapidly, and he’s never been an average runner. A little offseason work could really have made a big impact to his value.
Anyway, I think the Padres are best off trading him, but I don’t think he’s going to have much value due to the good, but not great batting line in 2024. At 1B/DH, $14.6MM for a 1.0-2.0 WAR player is a lot of money. While the $14.6MM figure is an MLBTR estimate, I think the Padres might be able to get that lower.
The poll doesn’t allow for the best answer, which is to play him this year, let him become FA in 2026
Arraez would be the perfect guy to have at the top of any lineup, edifice the Yanks. A contact hitter that can hit in front of Soto and Judge at the 1 or 2 spot?. His OBP is top 10 over the last 3 years. In this day and age, 372 obp is elite. But I don’t
This article reads like Jurickson Profar is gone. First I’m hearing this. Hope it’s not true.
Free agent. They can sign him but so can everyone else.
If this guy could take a walk he’d be like Boggs or Gwynn n not afraid to hit w/2 strikes. Like they say, “u don’t walk your way off the island u hit your way off it.”
I think the Padres made a mistake in not hitting him 2nd in that lineup. Tatis has speed and Arraez puts the ball in play at such a high rate that I think they would have scored more runs.
Next season after he is traded to the Red Sox I could see Duran, Arraez, Soto, Devers.
I wouldn’t be surprised if the Pads carry a payroll over the CBT line. Nobody has really said that cuts were necessary!
Keep him. He was one of their biggest producers on offense this past season. It was never a secret that his salary would go up this offseason. If that was such a problem why trade their most recent first rounder for him in the first place?
If only the Tigers had hired, the right person.