One year removed from an offseason that saw the Padres radically alter the direction of their franchise by paring down on payroll and trading superstar Juan Soto to the Yankees, San Diego once again finds itself in something of a financial pickle. The club is expected to maintain its payroll level from 2024 headed into 2025; according to RosterResource, that’s a budget of $169MM and a luxury tax payroll that falls below the first threshold (which sits at $241MM in 2025). Getting to that level of payroll may be easier said than done, however, as the Padres are currently projected for a payroll just under $210MM in 2025 with a luxury tax payroll of $244M, just above the first threshold.
That leaves the club likely looking to pare down payroll by around $40MM this winter, and they’ll surely be hoping to make additions to the team in spite of those cuts. The Padres will need to add at least one starter to pair with a trio of Dylan Cease, Michael King, and Yu Darvish this winter, and the departure of Jurickson Profar leaves a void in left field, not to mention the losses of role players David Peralta and Donovan Solano weakening the club’s lineup at DH and on the bench. Of course, any players the club parts ways with to reduce payroll will surely create new holes that need to be filled, leaving A.J. Preller and the club’s front office in a bit of a pickle.
One avenue the Padres could use to reduce payroll this year runs through Luis Arraez. The club acquired the 27-year-old back in May, and he generally played fairly well during his time in San Diego this year with a .318/.346/.398 slash line that was good for a 111 wRC+ and earned him the third consecutive batting title of his career. A contact savant who has managed to reduce his already impressive 10% strikeout rate from 2021 to 7.1% in 2022, 5.4% in 2023, and 4.3% this past year, Arraez struck out an unbelievable 3.4% of the time during his time with the Padres. As an above-average hitter who is more reliable than anyone else in the game when it comes to putting the bat on the ball, it’s easy to see why Arraez has been attractive enough to clubs that both the Marlins and Padres have given up significant packages to land him in recent years.
That preternatural knack for contact is held back by Arraez’s lackluster plate discipline causing his walk rate to decline steadily alongside his strikeout rate over the years and a complete lack of power, however. Both of those flaws were on full display in 2024, as Arraez walked at a 3.6% clip with an ISO of .078, which both ranked third from the bottom among qualified major league hitters. While it’s possible that the thumb injury Arraez played through this year before undergoing surgery in October could have impacted him in the power department, but even his career-high .115 ISO with the Marlins last year landed just outside the bottom ten among qualified hitters. Between those flaws in his hitting profile and his lackluster defense that largely limited him to first base and DH with the Padres, it’s also easy to see why both the Twins and Marlins were willing to part ways with him on the trade market in recent years.
Could Arraez be dealt for the third year in a row this winter? Doing so is perhaps the simplest path to slashing a significant chunk of payroll for the Padres. Cease and King are both projected by MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz for hefty arbitration salaries, but neither reaches the $14.6MM figure Arraez is currently penciled in for. Clearing that money off the books would drop the Padres’ payroll to around $195MM. While San Diego would then need to replace Arraez at first base headed into next year, a number of bats at the position including former Padres Josh Bell, Ty France, and Anthony Rizzo figure to be available for a relative bargain this winter, meaning it should be fairly easy for the club to replace Arraez in the lineup and still come out $10-12MM ahead, not to mention that the return for Arraez’s services could help to plug holes in the rotation or outfield. Those motivations behind a potential deal were enough to land Arraez the 17th spot on MLBTR’s Top 35 offseason trade candidates list.
With that being said, a trade of Arraez isn’t the only option at the Padres’ disposal as they look for ways to pare down payroll. He’s already indicated this winter that he would be open to an extension with the club this winter as he stares down his final year under team control before free agency, and the Padres have regularly worked out contracts that offer the club additional financial flexibility in the short-term and the player additional security in the long term in the past. That includes deals that comes together just before a player is due to reach free agency, such as the extensions they’ve offered to Darvish and Manny Machado in recent years.
If Arraez were amenable to it, it’s easy to imagine the Padres back-loading the deal to reduce his 2025 salary significantly and/or offering a lower AAV over a longer term in order to duck under the luxury tax threshold. As one example, a six-year deal worth $60MM would come with an AAV of just $10MM, allowing the club to shave ~$4.6MM of its expected luxury tax bill for 2025. Meanwhile, if the deal was structured such that Arraez made just $5MM in the first year of the deal followed by $11MM salaries over the rest of the contract, that would offer the Padres nearly $10MM in savings on their 2025 payroll as compared to his arbitration salary- a figure not that different than what they’d save by trading him and replacing him with a low-cost veteran.
Those numbers are purely hypothetical, of course, and it’s certainly possible Arraez would not want to lock into a deal with such a relatively low annual salary without first seeing what’s available to him on the open market. That’s not the only flaw in the plan of extending Arraez, either; while a deal with a similar structure to the one mentioned above would be a major help in solving San Diego’s immediate payroll concerns for 2025, in a longer-term view it simply kicks the can down the road to next season when Arraez’s salary would shoot up by $6MM and could leave the club in the same financial jam they find themselves in now.
If you were in the Padres’ shoes, would you look to deal Arraez elsewhere this winter and replace him at first base, attempt to extend him long-term, or simply play out the season and cut payroll elsewhere? Have your say in the poll below!
Cincyfan85
Most overrated player in baseball. They should have non-tendered him at $14m+.
VegasSDfan
I actually think Soto is more overrated.
mlb fan
“Soto is more overrated”…It’s hard to be a great hitter and also “overrated”, but Juan Soto has clearly accomplished this feat.
lowtalker1
Soto is overrated… he walks and he will continue to do that now that he will get his payday… he also is an awful outfielder with a weak arm and a slow runner.
DirtyWater04
No, it’s really not that hard. Being overrated doesn’t mean he can’t also be good. Soto is a very good hitter, but people act like he’s the second coming of Ted Williams. There is a word for that, it’s called “overrated.”
seamaholic 2
Dude …
JudgementDay
Good hitter, can’t field a ball worth a damn…
LongTimeFan1
@ lowtalker1,
Soto is heading into his age 26 season. Still very young. There’s no reason why he can’t improve defensively and on the bases.
Soto’s arm strength is in the 48th percentile.
Sprint speed 26.8 feet per second which is in 36th percentile. 27.0 is considered average by Statcast. He has been in the 60th percentile at 27.3. in 2019.
In 2022, his arm strength was in the 56th percentile.
His range in 2019, was in the 90th percentile.
There’s plenty more to unlock even above his career highs. He’s a young man whose fallen into neglecting his other tools beyond his superior plate skills.
And that I might add someone capable of becoming a .300 hitter again by reducing his K’s.
Baseballisthebest
Soto hit .288 with a .569 and 41 home runs. He did far more than take a walk.
LogicLeftOnBase
Hits for average, power, draws walks. Gets on base better than anyone since the days of Barry Bonds. I find it hard to consider someone overrated when able to do all of that. There are very few 5 tool players anymore and almost none of them excell in anything other than defense and baserunning, which don’t matter much if you can’t hit.
kahnkobra
he has a cannon for an arm but his defense is definitely not good
The biggest tr0ll
Soto is very good but he’s not a five tool player.
LogicLeftOnBase
I wasn’t implying Soto is a 5 tool player. Just that most of the really good players excel at 2-3 aspects of the game. 5 tool players like Witt, Ohtani, and Betts are exceedingly rare. The most important tools for position players are hitting, on-base, and power. Soto excels at all 3.
The biggest tr0ll
Absolutely, thanks for clarifying, and I agree, except that Trout in his heyday was a 5-tool player and Ohtani is more like a 10-tool player.
Hammerin' Hank
The contract he’s fixing to receive will show you just how much playing the corner outfield and base running matter when you’re dealing with an immensely talented hitter.
saavedra
Soto is a better Brian Giles. That’s how I feel about him.
Baseballisthebest
I don’t understand the relevance of your statement. Ted Williams wasn’t a 5 tool player. Babe Ruth wasn’t a 5 tool player. Hank Aaron wasn’t a 5 tool player. Judge isn’t a 5 tool player. Ohtani doesn’t play defense at all so he isn’t a 5 tool player. Harper isn’t a 5 tool player.
What Soto is, is a very young player that is still improving and whose historical comps at the plate are all players in the pantheon. He just completed his age 25 season as one of the top 5 hitters both for the season and for the entirety of the years he has played.
During Soto’s career only Judge who is 6 years older has been a better hitter.
Soto is exceptional.
bronyaur
Hitting just over .300, never walking, never stealing a base, zero power and being a defensive liability does not a great player make.
GarryHarris
Mike Trout never had a great arm.
The biggest tr0ll
Soto is very good. That’s all we need to know.
But I disagree with Ohtani. He is a 10-tool player. The only reason he’s not in the field is because he’s valuable as a pitcher, which is another tool.
Lonniemac
Dipping into the egg nog early?
amk1920
Soto is actually a good hitter with power. Arraez can’t hit anything more than lame duck singles
seamaholic 2
Soto is the second best pure hitter of his generation, unless you consider Trout in the same generation. Second only to his current teammate. To argue otherwise is just silly.
energel
whats better? A duck fart single, or a strikeout?
duck fart singles seem to start alot of big innings or rallys.
with Luis Arraez you have to throw away all sabermetric stuff and just look at the obvious. Hitting is hard, hitting starts rallys, and luis arraez hits. and he hits alot.
amk1920
If I need to move a runner over I’ll take Arraez. If I need literally anything else done on a baseball field I’ll take someone else
padam
Ohtani would line to join the conversation.
stymeedone
They can look at those “cheaper” 1B, but they won’t replace Arraez’ offense with them. WAR undervalues batting average, the most scarce of commodities in today’s game. Josh Bell, Ty France or Anthony Rizzo won’t provide that offense. Sure, they will hit more HRs, but not enough to compensate. Keep him for now, look to trade at the deadline if necessary, and see what the options are next year.
The biggest tr0ll
I don’t think WAR undervalued him… he’s just not very valuable, plain and simple. A .314 average and high OBP does not guarantee success.
The biggest tr0ll
Trout was better in his prime because he could steal bags and is likely the better fielder, but true point
Lanidrac
WAR doesn’t undervalue batting average. It’s simply not as valuable as OBP or SLG.
Hammerin' Hank
No, WAR most definitely takes batting average into account. But it’s just not that important. If you haven’t figured this out by 2024 and are still stuck in 1974, then you’re probably never going to.
bronyaur
@energel. That sounds more like astrology than logic.
The biggest tr0ll
I don’t think Soto is overrated, he’s just not worth what they are paying him. Arraez, on the other hand, is a 1 WAR player who doesn’t really offer much to a team with that .314 average.
Baseballisthebest
7.9 WAR. $72 million value. Soto was worth 250% what he was paid in 2024. The last 3 years it’s more lopsided.
Arraez was injured last season. The two seasons preceeding that he had a 4.9 WAR and 4.2 WAR. He averaged 3.4 WAR over the last 3 seasons. 3.4 WAR is worth $30 million for a FA. I don’t think he would get near that much if he were a FA, but that is the value of WAR today.
padreforlife
At least Soto hits in postseasons Arraez is lifetime Zero in clutch
Baseballisthebest
Arraez has hit .369/.423/.459/.882 with RISP and .348/.402/.450/.852 in high leverage situations over his career.
Skyrider123
Winning three batting titles in a row with three different teams surely is overrated
Lanidrac
It is indeed overrated when he posts empty averages with only decent OBPs and no power.
Meanwhile, he’s not even a decent defensive first baseman
RyÅnWKrol
Boggs, Gwynn, and Carew at least had the OBP. Especially Boggs. He’d get over 200 hits and draw a ton of walks.
KnicksFanCavsFan
Hos OBP the last 3 years is .372. That’s top 10 and rare to find these days.
Lanidrac
That’s a fair point, but that was mostly because he used to have decent walk rates before 2023, and due to his career year to date in 2023 with a .354 average.
If his walk rates remain as poor as they have been the last two years, he’s going to need to post averages higher than .340 to keep up those great OBPs, something he’s only managed to do once in his 7-year career so far.
bronyaur
His OBP was not in the Top,10 last year.
BPax
Trade him so he might win a fourth title with a fourth team. That would be incredible.
Baseballisthebest
Trade him to the Red Sox so he can play with that other wildly overated player, Juan Soto. Would the Padres take Abreu for him?
Damn_Yankees
I don’t think anyone is over rating him. He’s rated as one of the best contact hitters in baseball with a serviceable glove.
Superstar Prospect Wander Javier
Serviceable is an overrating in and off itself
lowtalker1
He does alright at first. I’ve seen worst defenders… such as the two corner outfielders on the Phillies
Damn_Yankees
He’s got an average major league glove. You put him on your team for his bat. I don’t understand your confusion.
Superstar Prospect Wander Javier
Over that last 2 seasons he has -27 OAA. He is a trash defender who barely makes up for his negative defensive value with his bat
Damn_Yankees
Again with the analytics. When it comes down to needing someone to get on base or move a run, he’s one of a handful of guys you could just about count on to get it done. There’s tons of value in that.
The biggest tr0ll
Most teams don’t “move runs” anymore with singles at least. Most get guys who just blast the ball over the fence. There’s too much uncertainty with small ball.
Hammerin' Hank
And his bat is just above league average, nothing special. All of his offensive value comes from his batting average, which is far less important than OBP and slugging percentage.
Hammerin' Hank
No, there isn’t “tons of value” in moving runners over. Although it was very valuable back in 1906 when no one could hit the ball out of the park. Today, not so much.
Lanidrac
People are also overeating what value “one of the best contact hitter in baseball” brings from a DH without the ability to walk much nor hit for power.
Anyway, he’s still a decent player, just overrated.
Big whiffa
That’s ridiculous! 3.4% K rate is a unicorn stat in today’s baseball. His value to Padres is even greater considering how difficult it is to hit in that park. And the padres were one of the best two or three teams in baseball once they acquired him. Better than they were with Soto in the lineup.
lasershow45
I mean his walk rate is also a unicorn stat, kind of brings down the value of the K rate.
KnicksFanCavsFan
Not really. Not when his consistent hit skill has him with a 3 year obp of 3 years
mlb1225
Just because the Padres did better without Soto doesn’t mean they’re better off with Arraez over him.
The biggest tr0ll
Actually, they didn’t. Didn’t they get to the NLCs with Soto? Don’t think they got that far this year…
philliesphan77
Let’s normalize not using “unicorn” to describe things in sports. It’s not a children’s book, it’s baseball.
Aiden Awe
That’s extremely rare in todays game.
Lanidrac
The large ballpark actually helps him get more extra-base hits, since he wouldn’t be hitting many homers in any ballpark except maybe Yankee Stadium.
Hammerin' Hank
No, ridiculous is thinking that a team’s lineup could be better with Arraez in it than Soto.
MysteryWhiteBoy13
Totally agree. For all of his bat to ball skills the dude was worth 1 war this season. Carlos Santana is 39 and had a 2.5 war in the same amount of games, hits homers and can actually play first base, and he would probably be around 10 million cheaper.
KnicksFanCavsFan
WAR is a nice start but don’t use it to devalue what an elite bat Arraez has. it’s helped him net a .372 obp which is like the
MysteryWhiteBoy13
@knicks, when you’re BA is 323, I expect that obp to be at minimum 400. Even when he had an 354 BA he couldn’t get his obp up to 400. And for all that getting on base he steals less than 10 bases per season.
Baseballisthebest
How much better than top 12 do you expect his OBP to be? A single is worth 21% more in creating runs than a walk. Do you want him to sacrifice the more valuable result to increase the less valuable result?
KnicksFanCavsFan
Bro…..top 12 OBP over the last 3 years. what else needs to be said? Is love to see the Yanks with a lineup like..
Jazz
Arraez
Soto
Judge.
That’s almost guaranteed to be a run every time.
Lanidrac
And last year his OBP was only .346, while his overall wRC+ was only 109, good but no longer great.
His falling walk rates suggest that his days with an OBP over .370 and a wRC+ over 120 are mostly if not completely over.
That’s before you even touch his lousy defense.
Lanidrac
No, but he needs either one or the other to rebound significantly without sacrificing from the other to once again be as great of a hitter as he was in 2022 or 2023.
The facts remain that his walk rate has sucked for two straight years and that he’s only had a truly elite batting average once in his career to date.
MLB Top 100 Commenter
Nick says Friars have a “financial pickle,” but I say it’s no big dill.
tutopelotas1
You’ve got to be kidding !! … “Overrated” ? … LUIS ARRAEZ has won three consecutive batting championships (and has accomplished such an amazing feat in both leagues)…. This article by Nick Deeds could have some “analytics” value, but ‘leaves a lot to be desired’ in terms of baseball savvy !!
seamaholic 2
I believe “lack of savvy” goes the opposite direction.
Big whiffa
Also,the padres were not willing to part with a considerable package as they took fish to the cleaners in that trade.
Rally Goose
It’s not taking them to the cleaners if they trade him for less value not even one year later.
Lanidrac
The fact that he won two of those batting titles with averages of .316 and .314 says more about the decline of contact hitting across all of MLB that it does about him. Guys in their prime just 20 years ago like Pujols, Ichiro, Helton, and Cabrera are probably laughing at those pathetic wins.
thebirds
Sign Paul Goldschmidt.
NYG4246
Genuinely curious as to what you think makes him overrated?
seamaholic 2
Batting average is almost literally irrelevant to a player’s value. That’s why.
KnicksFanCavsFan
Not when the BAT generates a talkative high OBP.
Lanidrac
…which it no longer does in Arraez’s case.
Rally Goose
Sometimes all you can say is “lol”
towinagain
Him and Profar were sparkplugs for this team. DO NOT GET RID OF HIM.
The whole narrative about the Padres being unable to spend is crap.
You want to get a rid of a fanbase as quickly as you gained one…conduct a firesale.
Come on Padres, you are better than your predecessors or be better than your predecessors who only cared about on thing…the budget.
Big whiffa
Right ! They need to bring profar back WAY more than they need to budget or trade away talent. Keep this team in tact !
Pete'sView
Cincyfan85 — Arraez is not “overrated,” not with that bat. But he clearly comes with some dings. He’s fine—more than fine— with the right club at DH, maybe at 1b. Kind of Denard Span-ish although Span could play OF.
Unclemike1526
What is it about this guy that everybody seems to want to get rid of him? All he does is hit. Seems like some team might find that interesting. Is he really that bad in the field that you can’t play him anywhere? I mean there’s a DH for a reason now. Seems like a guy who can hit would be perfect for that job.
El Niño
He changed the dynamics of the padres lineup. We started clicking when he got here. I’d rather trade cease – he’d get more back anyways.
Rally Goose
Why would you trade Cease after giving up all that to get him that’s a terrible argument!
El Niño
1. What did they give up that’s “all of that”? Nothing they traded is regrettable at this point.
2. If they have to trim payroll, pitching is always harder to find which makes him a more valuable asset. Yes, that makes him valuable to keep, but also to trade to build out the roster.
Rally Goose
@El Niño The prospects they get back if they do trade him are in no way guaranteed to be “all that” either. Especially when he only has his Arb-3 year left.
2. You answered your own question the Padres need to replace rotation spots 4, 5 and the swingman spot this offseason even if they don’t trade Cease.
El Niño
I never said trade for prospects.
Rally Goose
Well a team trading for Cease or any other rental isn’t going to trade proven MLB players of consequence.
El Niño
Brady singer for Jonathan India would like a word.
Rally Goose
Neither one is a rental lol try again
El Niño
Same amount of control on each contract.
Look, you started by saying the padres gave up “all that” then backtracked 1 comment later. I’m really not even sure what you’re arguing at this point. Cease is a valuable piece if Preller needs to cut payroll and retool.
El Niño
The padres literally traded 1 year of control of Soto last year for Michal king plus. “Lol”
Rally Goose
If they trade Cease they’ll just to give up even more to replace him. They need to add 3 starters as of me typing this comment.
Dylan Cease is not Juan Soto and the Yankees look like idiots for making that trade now.
El Niño
Well, trades like that happen, and you have been effectively proven wrong. Take care.
Rally Goose
A team that wants to trade for Cease will be offering mostly (if not only) prospects. They are trying to win and trading established contributors does not portend that.
You still don’t address the Padres having to add 3 starters even if they don’t trade Cease.
El Niño
You keep moving the goal posts, dude.
But I’ll play along: Waldron returns to early season form, Vasquez continues to build on late season success, Morejon gets stretched out, sign Sasaki. Done. Have a great night.
Rally Goose
How likely are any of those let alone all?
Rally Goose
At the end of the day trading for Cease makes no sense if you are just going to trade him away a year later. Him getting more expensive in arbitration and not signing a lowball extension were foreseeable so those aren’t reasons to trade him.
El Niño
Cool, man, you have a right to your opinion but you get all the facts wrong.
Rally Goose
Oh yeah what facts did I supposedly get wrong? You think A. J. Preller doesn’t know how arbitration works?
Damn_Yankees
It’s the analytics nerds who look at nothing but analytics.
amk1920
He was awful in the playoffs because when stuff turns up in October you need to actually have some slug in the bat. His noodle singles
gbs42
Damn_Yankees,
Did you come up with “analytics nerds” all by yourself? Very clever.
An empty batting average with poor defense or baserunning contributions lead to a player with limited value. It doesn’t take much analytics to see that.
Brian Cashman Fan
Arraez was 9% better than the average hitter last year, and provides absolutely no value on the field and on the basepaths. You’re paying $15M for someone who should be DH-only whose floor is a league average hitter and whose ceiling is slightly above that. Just not worth it.
Big Hurt
Cash – correct, he was that in 2024, but in 2023 his slash was .354/.393/.469, with OPS+ of 128 (and OPS+ was 128 in 2022 as well). As a White Sox fan I hated watching that guy come up in any situational AB as well, knowing that he absolutely was going to make contact and not make a wasted out. That’s not in OPS+, but it absolutely matters and keeps innings moving.
But yeah, he’s a negative WAR defender.
Lanidrac
And 2023 was the only year he’s ever posted an average over .334. With his terrible walk rates the last two years, that’s not a good look for a rebound.
He’s still a good hitter, just no longer a great one. Although, he still could rebound, so his offensive ceiling is still quite high.
Degaz
With little to no power as well….definition of a one tool player.
Baseballisthebest
He has averaged 20% over league average the last 3 seasons.
He is at the top of the charts in situations with RISP and RISP with 2 outs.
He had a WAR in the 4s when he played 2B in 2022 and 2023.
stymeedone
Slightly? Leading the league in hitting means NO ONE was better. Using WAR to compare value for a player who hits for average is meaningless. It does not value it regardless of scarcity.
outinleftfield
WAR for a 1B/DH is like FIP for a pitcher that induces 60% GB. It just doesn’t show the real value.
Canuckleball
He has no power and he takes so few walks that his on base percentage has become very average. There are many decent power hitters who can post on base number s similar to his.
If he can boost his power (which seems unlikely) or improve his walk rate, then his overall offensive production would be solid.
Also, a DH who has no power is not really appealing to most if not all teams.
metsin4
A .346 OBP is far from average.
seamaholic 2
He was worth all of 1.1 WAR last year, same as Vinnie Pasquantino and Mauricio Dubon. And in terms of WAR per 600 PA’s, for above-replacement players, he was one of the worst in baseball.
metsin4
Well the padres actual win loss record with him and without him would beg to differ.
seamaholic 2
Two words: Jackson Merrill. Also they got healthy finally and had two Cy Young finalists.
Baseballisthebest
Seam, he was 12th in WAR among players that played 60 plus games as a DH. Just behind Suzuki and in front of O’Hara.
KnicksFanCavsFan
Not true. His OBP the last year was top 30 in mlb but higher than most other Padres not named Profar.
Baseballisthebest
The .371 OBP Arraez has had from 2022-2023 is 56 points above average. The .346 he had last season is 34 points above average.
Big whiffa
Nope ! The writers and commentators here vastly over value defense
Joe says...
Big whiffa Brian Cashman didn’t think defense was important and the Yankees got curb stomped by a team that did.
Baseballisthebest
Joe, the Yankees had better defense as a team than the Dodgers.
KnicksFanCavsFan
Brian Cashman had nothing to do with the defensive collapse in the WS. How often is Judge going to bobble a routine fly? How often is GG winner and runner-up Volpe going to man’s a bad throw? How often will Cole fail to cover 1b. It was more of a team being flustered and mentally distracted than anything else. Not saying we can’t improve at some positions but the gafarcles made in the WS were outliers for the most part.
CheckeredGecko
You’re right, ALL he does is hit. Doesn’t walk, no power, can’t run, can’t field. Weird player. Will be a future fun piece of trivia for his batting titles.
Blackpink in the area
“All he does is hit”
You said it yourself. That’s the problem.
RyÅnWKrol
Because despite the BA, he’s the type of player that once that BA goes away, all of his percentages are so close to his BA that they quickly fall to where this guy will have an OBP under .300 even when he’s hitting .250. That’s one of the reasons for the modern emphasis on OBP. A young Joc Pederson would have a .230 BA but would still at least have a league average OBP. If you want to see true value in a batting champ, look up Wade Boggs.
Ma4170
But while hes an elite hitter, his obp has way more value than someone with a similar OBP who relies more on BB. Hits will always be more correlated w runs than BB bc they generate movement where runners can advance more than one base at a time.. where misplays happen to allow extra bases. Its strange how people forget this and overvalue BB. I agree theyre more reliable to continue as players age, but a consistently high avg high obp player has more run generating value. And his WRC+ is 123 last three years, and he played last year w a bad shoulder. If anything this guy is undervalued in todays game.
gbs42
Someone with a lower BA but similar OBP typically hits for more power (Max Muncy, Kyle Schwarber), which generates more runs than a bunch of singles.
There’s more than one way to be a productive hitter, but OBP and SLG correlate better to run scoring than BA, while acknowledging a high BA often contributes to a high OBP.
Baseballisthebest
Gbs, there are only 11 players with a better OBP over the last 3 years. A single is 21% more valuable in creating runs than a walk and Arraez’s OBP contains few walks.
The guys with similar OBP were Mookie Betts, Jose Altuve, and Christian Yelich.
Schwarber was at .344 and Muncy at .337. Not comparable to .371 for Arraez
Ma4170
Agree, SLG correlates more w runs than BA, but his lifetime numbers are 323/372/418. So compared to someone whos around 260/340/470, he may be equal or greater offensive value depending on the extra hits. Compared to someone w same obp and higher SLG (and lower avg) he’d likely have less value, but not many in MLB who are averaging 372 OBP or higher.
jeffmaz
Arraez is the best Padres hitter since Tony. Value stats are behind latest baseball trends. The Padres need to lock him down for 6 to 8 years. I used to not believe clubhouse mattered but Luis brings a nice energy to team.
davengmusic
This guy truly ended up in the wrong era. He’s a Hall of Famer in the 70s or 80s.
HalfBaked McBride
So true
Fans of a certain age still find value in the Carew-ian nature of Arraez
I’d LOVE to have him on the Phillies….plus, we might actually have a true leadoff hitter for a change. Maybe the Pads would like a package with Bryson Stott in the mix?
Lindor's Bodyguard
I am with you Bake. I would love to have him as the Mets DH for the next several years. I openly acknowledge that he provides no value on defense.
deweybelongsinthehall
Carew walked 100 times each year. Such greatly increased his on base percentage.
gbs42
dewey,
Carew never walked more than 78 times in a season, but he had 11 seasons walking more than 50 Arraez topped out at so far.
However, Carew’s first time topping 50 walks was when he was 27, so maybe Arraez also will learn to walk more often. I doubt it, but it’s not impossible.
Baseballisthebest
GBS. Carew, who was one of my favorite players in the early 1970s, had a .379 OBP, .411 SLG, and .790 OPS from age 25-27. Arraez had a .371 OBP, .426 SLG, and .797 OPS from age 25-27.
differentbears
Carew put up 81 WAR and has a 131 OPS+ for his career. And .790 in those three seasons was good for 124 OPS+, and he had 7 WAR in that age-27 season.
Baseballisthebest
GBS post didn’t address WAR. Carew played 3 games at positions other than 2B. Arraez played a majority of his games at a position other than 2B last season.
Compare 1971-1972 for Carew to 2022-2023 for Arraez when he played mostly 2B. 7.8 WAR for Carew to 9.1 WAR for Arraez.
Carew was a terrible defensive player at 2B.
I’m old, so players like Carew in the early 1970s are the guys that were my heroes in my teens.
Arraez compares well to Carew and it was a mistake to move him off 2B.
Johhos
I like this. Let’s expand it to Arraez and their R Suarez(Robert) for our R Suarez (Ranger) and Stott. We’d have to likely throw in a prospect or a guy like Jose Ruiz but that helps their payroll and fills a couple needs on both sides. I’d rather dump Walker on them but that’s probably a non starter. Sign Quantrill for the 4-5 spot in the rotation and hopefully Painter/Abel ready by mid season. .
FanDan
Padres would have no use for Stott. They need a SS, LF, or C. Along with SP. Stott is not a good defensive SS.
SportsFan0000
Preller will want OF Justin Crawford and SP Andrew Painter in a deal for Arraez.. from the Phillies.
philliesphan77
I’ve been dreaming of him in the Phillies lineup since he was in Minnesota. It would be a dream to have someone you know is going to get on base in front of the boppers.
seamaholic 2
Lots of guys get on base better than Arraez.
Baseballisthebest
Seam, that’s just not true. 11 players got on base at a higher rate from 2022-2024.
seamaholic 2
Stott is WAY more valuable than Arraez.
Baseballisthebest
Seam, not as a 2B. When Arraez played primarily 2B in 2022 and 2023 his WAR was higher than Stott.
Degaz
Disagree…voters are still voting for him as evidence by his 3 straight years of MVP votes. If he can triple his current stats he will have a decent shot to get in the HOF. The wrong era agreement is a false narrative. People on MLBTraderumors don’t vote for the HOF….
gbs42
“If he can triple his current stats” is asking for quite a lot.
Lanidrac
More like the 1930s if anytime. I’m sure Lloyd Waner can relate, although even he played passable defense.
Not in the dead ball era when a number of the best hitters were posting averages over .400, though.
letitbelowenstein
.323 career hitter and one of the toughest to strike out in recent memory. Just because he isn’t trying to hit 50 homers in a season, people get down on him. I’d keep him.
Seamaholic
You know a single is the same thing as a walk right? In fact a walk’s better, because it uses up more pitches. The fact that he hits a lot of singles is irrelevant. Just look at his on-base percentage, which is good but not great. That’s it. That’s all he gives you.
Simm
No a single isn’t the same as a hit. If no runners are on then sure. If runners are on a single is way more valuable.
RyÅnWKrol
I remember being taught that as a kid and never believed it. What I learned about walks is that you want to replace outs with walks. It’s always better to have that while fueling OBP with a higher BA. Walks use more pitches and extend innings, opening up more scoring opportunities because something will eventually give, whether it’s a surprise HR or a mistake by the defense. The best hitters draw walks and still get their hits. Outs lower a player’s BA. But more walks keep that BA from falling as fast. So then you get your hits and do more damage with the bat overall.
seamaholic 2
Yes but a single on the first pitch saves the pitcher 5, 6 pitches, which is a big difference. Getting into the soft side of the bullpen is basically the whole offensive strategy of good teams.
Baseballisthebest
Seam, he averages 4.46 p/pa in the first AB of the game. He averages 4.24 p/pa with runners on base. He is in the top 10 in both.
Why do you hate him so much even when his actual stats tell a different story than the one you are trying to tell?
Longtimecoming
With an MLB pitcher on the mound, consider this: the guy has to throw 4 balls before a batter can take a walk. A great deal of MLB pitchers aren’t going to toss up 4 balls before 3 strikes on a regular basis – or they ain’t staying long – so, at what point do you want a guy with a very high success rate of hitting the ball for a single, standing up there trying to draw a walk before 3 strikes are thrown?
The argument that he needs to talk more walks falls on its face when you realize he would likely strike out a lot more while waiting for that 4th ball to arrive.
Captain Dunsel
A single is not the same as a walk for two reasons. First, runners can often advance two bases on a single. Second, putting the ball in play opens up the possibility of defensive errors.
GoGreen
I’ll add to that Dunsel.
If you window shop, you’re looking at 3-6 pitches. If you have contact skills, you can run a pitch count up well over 6 pitches in a single at bat.
Contact skills allows many more situational plays by being able to place a ball in an area you desire and produce a higher % result.
Having the profile of contact/no power probably means the defensive alignment is more favorable for stolen bases while Arraez is at bat.
Baseballisthebest
Go Green, Arraez averaged 3 pitches after he had 2 strikes against him. If he didn’t get a hit or make an out earlier in the count it became almost impossible to get a pitch past him.
Evan Siggson
So you have runners on 2b and 3b , still think a single is the same as a walk?
metsin4
The pitch count has become more irrelevant in modern baseball. Most teams bullpens are better than their starter. Why are you looking to see a new pitcher every inning throwing 100? A hit is way more valuable than a walk.
Armaments216
Arraez saw fewer pitches per plate appearance (3.5) than almost all his teammates last season. ahead of only Tatis and Campesano.
Baseballisthebest
Seam, a walk has a 21% lower RC value than a single. His OBP is .371 from 2022-2024 which is 56 points above average and in the top 12. That is great. That he did it with mostly hits means it’s more valuable in creating runs than if he did it with mostly walks. He is top of the charts with RISP.
Badfinger
How does one pair with a trio?
Gwynning
Some tree-os have pears, though… ok bye, i halve to leaf now.
Brew88
eight maids a milking say hey
Brian Cashman Fan
They failed to do what I thought was the best move, which was to non-tender him. I suppose they thought that with his thumb injury as an excuse for his poor performance, he’d have decent trade value and they’d be able to infuse ML talent like the Soto deal did. I’m just not sure what team is willing to bite; the return the Marlins got was half-decent, but they had to pay all of his salary. The Padres have put themselves in an unnecessary pickle.
99socalfrc
LOL, an excuse for his poor performance? He won the batting title.
El Niño
With a broken thumb.
outinleftfield
99, the guy is a fan of Brian Cashman. Do you need to know anything else about him?
Johnnie Cochran
Lol. No one is non-tendering Luis Arraez. No one.
For Love of the Game
The bigger question is: Where’s the fit? The demand for a low power, low walk DH is, well, low. That’s where you put your hitters who are weak defensively. I think he would do well hitting where there’s a big outfield like Comerica Park, but there isn’t a fit unless the Tigers dump Torkelson.
Canuckleball
He could slot in at second if you could move Colt Keith elsewhere. Arraez would actually be an upgrade defensively at 2nd over Keith, as well as offensively. And yes, Arraez would be otherworldly at Comerica.
Gwynning
Tork and Olson package for Arraez-ish?
SportsFan0000
The Tigers would not even trade one of those guys for Arrraez.
They have better, young all around players in their pipeline now.
Why would they trade emerging star starting pitcher Reese Olson as a “throwaway” in a deal for 1 year of Arraez?
Not seeing that as a deal the Tigers would agree to.
Gwynning
Hence the “-ish” part. Padres have plenty of prospect bullets to spend, and Olson is definitely obtainable. Word on the street is he’s being shopped by DET anyhow…
FanDan
Not only Arraez, but Suarez should be offered up. Padres have depth in pen and moving his $10M salary for 2025 helps. Also the annual, can they unload the Cronenworth contract?
Evan Siggson
This guy is a legend if he played 20-30 years ago.
Big whiffa
Reds will take cease and arreaz. Lodolo is only making 2 mil next season….
Gwynning
Throw in Steer and we might have “something”… if that isn’t amenable, we can accept Noelvi in lieu of Steer.
prhood
I’d release him altogether if that is possible. I doubt he gets +$10M as a FA.
Salzilla
I’d take him on the Yankees to lead off in a heartbeat. Leads off and gets on base at a great clip. Especially if we get Soto back? Super valuable.
dankyank
It would be better for the Padres to unload Cronenworth, assuming they can.
In that scenario the team should slide Arraez back to second and hope for a rebound on offense and defense. If they can land Carlos Santana for say, $8 million, that pushes the team a few hundred thousand below the CBT payroll threshold Swapping out Solano, Profar and Peralta for a couple of league minimum players raises the gap to $1.1 million or so.
Obviously that’s not ideal and leaves minimal margin of error in the event of injuries, but it leaves the rotation and starting lineup and bullpen intact. IMO, that’s the best case scenario.
Harrison Butker's Mount Rushmore Worthy Speech
I’d keep him at DH
Sign an actual 1B
Keep cronenworth at 2B
If you need to move anyone it should be cease who could bring back cheap production for 6 years.
Twins would be an interesting destination for Cease for say Luke Keaschall, Andrew Morris, and Cj Culpepper.
The Usual Suspect
@ Butker. That’s a whole lot of team control to give up for 1 year of Cease, who the Twins would have no chance of retaining. Moreover, the Twins ain’t taking on salary this offseason.
cbraves
I say extend him and play him at first. A guy you can rely on in a put the ball in play situation and he can get on base. He is one of the few true leadoff hitters left in the game and people seem to value power over contact, which is fine. But it is nice to have a guy that regularly gets on base in front of your big bats. All the power bats the Pads have, he is very valuable to them and they should definitely keep him around.
Baseballisthebest
Their GM said he would not be winning a batting title with a 4th team. I took that to mean he was keeping him.
Tdat1979
40 years ago a guy who wins 3 straight batting titles with a strikeout rate under 5% would be a superstar, just like Tony Gwynn.
mlb1225
Tony Gwynn was also a great defensive outfielder and stole nearly 60 bases at his peak.
Evan Siggson
Gwynn stole more than 40 bases one time in his HIOF career.
Brew88
56 SBs in 1987
HatlessPete
Tony gwynn had a fair bit more xbh power in his bat, better plate discipline and could actually play defense. That’s why he was a hof caliber player and arraez likely is not.
belowme29
I would take him on the dodgers since we will need to improve our bench. Padres and dodgers let’s make this happen.
Well....shoot
Below-HECK NO
yanks2323
Trade him to the Yankees
Simm
I feel like it’s likely he stays and plays out his contract.
Cronenworth and Suarez are more likely trade candidates. They could move cease but given their pitching needs he is prob less likely.
Brew88
But the poll doesn’t accommodate that common sense answer
Gwynning
I honestly don’t see anybody being traded, unless they’re throw-ins for Crochet. 40 Man currently standing at 36 (or 37?) just screams AJ is almost done, to me. Simple adds at SP and a couple ST grabs and I think he just runs this roster back! They were, ahem, *this* close.
FanDan
Arraez, Suarez and Eguy Rosario to Toronto for Bo Bichette.
dbacksrs
Really appreciate articles like this from Nick and the rest of the MLBTR team. When the offseason is slow like it is currently (if it early and a holiday break, after all), articles like this make continuing the check MLB Trade Rumors worth it (even though it’s free for a non-subscriber like myself).
Blackpink in the area
Yeah i don’t even agree with the premise of the article but I always appreciate a good conversation starter and this is certainly that. It’s stuff like this that makes it my favorite website.
docbot
The reds should take him. I’d love to have arraez at the dish with elly on base.
Wire to wire 2024
Idk the reds have no lead off hitter now..
This one belongs to the Reds
Friedl, by default.
Wire to wire 2024
Yeah, I did like him in the 3-5 range being that he rarely hits into double plays
HiredGun23
Shoot him a 3 year deal, leave him at dh most days and go out and get an everyday first basemen.
johncoltrane
3 straight batting titles
Yet it feels like noone wants him
mlb1225
He’s a good hitter, but he has a one-tool profile which is always risky. If his batting average drops to .290, then there’s reason for concern. He’s stuck at 1B and DH, has seen his walk rate go down each of the last two seasons, and has never hit for power.
HatlessPete
Facts. His one tool is the one that’s most vulnerable to bad luck and it ages worse than plate discipline and power. Since he lacks other skills to raise his floor, it’s a very unreliable profile, especially when considering him as a likely free agent next offseason.
mlb1225
Arraez feels like he’s in this weird grey area. He’s good enough to get regular playing time, but he’s sort of a positionless player. That limits Arraez to Dh/1B, and the Padres could probably afford an upgrade there.
Baseballisthebest
To me the question in any situation like this is who would be an upgrade for the same money?
jbigz12
I remember all the Padres fleeced them comments. Now Bendix is sitting with the Pads 2023 first rounder & Marsee instead of making a $15MM decision on Arraez.
Harrison Butker's Mount Rushmore Worthy Speech
Marsee who was hitting .180 in aa and had .733 ops in the hitter friendly PCL where pitchers could average .800 or better?
And some dude in single a?
Oh no!
The marlins gm would either pick up the option on arraez in a heart beat since marlins are running a ridiculously low 70 mill payroll for 2025 currently. What’s it gonna hurt to pick up arraez if he was still with the marlins?
Or
Decline him in a heartbeat cause they’re cheap and trying to stay cheap for some weird reason.
Whatever decision they’d make it pretty quickly and wouldn’t have to think about it.
Baseballisthebest
Padres got 2 years of a player that had a major league batting title and pushed them across the goal line into the playoffs. The Marlins got Head, a kid that struggled in low A ball, Marsee who struggled to a .200/.661 line last season and was not a top 100 prospect at the time of the trade, and Martorella who is a one dimensional prospect in AA who ended the season at .229/.691 at that level.
That was a win for the Padres. Someday the Marlins may see one of those three play for them in Miami. That day will not come in 2024 or 2025.
longoverdue1977
Great trade scenario with the M’s since Padres needs starting pitching. Come on, Jerry Dip-oto, get on it.
WaterfallEconomics
Not sure why so many people are down on him. Arráez is a valuable complementary piece, in the right situation, kind of a poor man’s Tony Gwynn, the “contact savant” minus the speed and plus defense. In an era of continuously declining batting averages and record-breaking strikeout totals, his ability to hit .300 stands out even more. In a TTO-heavy lineup that drives up pitch counts, he can interrupt too much of unproductive outs. On defense he could potentially be a utility 1b/2b, rotate through DH, and be on the field most backing up fly ball pittchers
colton wolf
interesting how ty france was originally a padre. maybe preller should try something called “player development”
Informed Sportsball Discussion
Have you heard of Jackson Merrill?
Baseballisthebest
Ty France just got DFA.
machurucuto
This guy racks up 200 hits every season. That’s valuable for any team.
KamKid
If you don’t have the need to pare down payroll, you just ride it out probably. But with the budget crunch as a reality, I think you trade one of Arraez or Cronenworth. 2B isn’t a hard position to fill and maybe there’s a need sooner than later to make room for Bogaerts. So if you could trade Cronenworth, you clear the position and the payroll after next year and Arraez could play 2B this year where he’d represent more value. If you think Arraez can’t play 2B, then finding a trade partner who does probably represents a good opportunity to get decent value in a trade.
FanDan
Cronenworth is unfortunately an extremely hard contract to trade. Length of terms works against the team and he has a limited no trade clause. But yes, all means should be made to move him. And I would move Arraez and Suarez too. Go after SP, SS and OF. Bullpen has depth. Trade from depth with your closer. He is a $10M hit to payroll in 25.
KamKid
Yeah, I figured that Cronenworth wouldn’t be an easy contract to trade, but I think that’s the context within which to view Arraez as a trade candidate. Trading Cronenworth probably is the best for the books in the longer term.
But if you can’t do it, his existence makes Areaez the next best opportunity for reallocating resources. I’m coming from a totally dispassionate outsider view though. It sounds like a lot of Padres fans here like the way the roster functions with Arraez on it. Personally, I think you might miss the defensive alignment with Kim in it. But again, that comes from a limited eyes on view of the team.
terry g
He’s in the wrong era. He’ll never be popular with the home run, strike out or walk crowd today.
Mustard Tiger
“The club is expected to maintain its payroll level from 2024 headed into 2025; according to RosterResource, that’s a budget of $169MM and a luxury tax payroll that falls below the first threshold (which sits at $241MM in 2025).” Wait! I was told by members of this site a year ago that Kevin Acee was full of crap when he said the Padres 2024 payroll would be less than $200 million, down from 2023’s high of $253 million. I want those members to personally apologize to Mr. Acee. Websoulsurfer/BaseballIsLife
Harrison Butker's Mount Rushmore Worthy Speech
Their payroll wasn’t 168 mill
Cause of CBT reasons they were around 223 mill in 2024 per fangraphs. The CBT threshold last year was 237 mill.
Fangraphs also projects their 2025 payroll to be about 230 mill for CBT reasons and the first CBT threshold is 241 mill
Try not to let random people get under your skin so much. It’s a website. It’s suppose to be fun.
fangraphs.com/roster-resource/payroll/padres?seaso…
Blackpink in the area
Yeah that definitely happened I can speak to that. Lot of Padres fans got weirdly defensive. Muted many of them.
We all want our team to win and do well. But these arguments about payroll can get a little inappropriate. I really wish there was a salary cap and floor so sports can be what it’s supposed to be about fair competition.
Baseballisthebest
I am fairly certain that far more of them muted you than vice versa.
JoeBrady
Lot of Padres fans got weirdly defensive.
======================
I have a hard time figuring out if they are serious or not. A few of them insist they have $50M left to spend, even after I type out every name with their salaries next to them.
Blackpink in the area
Last year many insisted Soto wouldn’t be dealt. Then days later he was.
Brew88
I think there were Pads fans just saying it’s important to wait for evidence ( or actual quotes from FO) before trusting opinions from reporters. Many reporters were saying the Padres wouldn’t increase payroll 5 years ago but were wrong.
Blackpink in the area
I wasn’t around 5 years ago. At least not commenting.
I was around last year. The reports came out that Soto could be dealt and numerous Padres fans swore up and down that wasn’t going to happen. And then literally days later it happened.
I just hate the way fans are these days when it comes to free agency and the offseason. They just act so entitled. Some teams spend money some don’t and its lame. Baseball needs a cap and a floor so it’s fair and not whatever team decides to spend 300 million that particular year.
Brew’88
My point is that we don’t know apriori what a team’s payroll goal is unless it comes direcdtly from FO. Otherwise, that’s information not shared with us, nor the writers. I’ve seen the SD payroll jump around quite a bit in the past decade, including many years where they went above the CBT when no one expected it. But reading the articles and posts in mlbtr, it seems there is a speculation (lacking any actual evidence) that SD will need to stay under the CBT this year. Last year after the Soto trade, the SD front office came out and finally said what the plan was – to reset the CBT so they can remain competitive in upcoming years. This year there has been no statement from FO regarding staying under the CBT again.
Blackpink in the area
Then just wait and see what happens. I haven’t muted you so obviously you aren’t one of those people but there were a lot of people saying silly things last year. Just let it happen and enjoy the ride.
Brew88
I think I’ve used the mute option only once, prefer to stay open to all opinions, even those I strongly disagree with. But I’m glad you haven’t muted me.
Blackpink in the area
Yeah i really try not to use it but my posting style tends to encourage trolls and if the trolls follow me from one post to another I gotta mute them. A lot of fans just want to talk with other fans of their own teams and agree with each other and while I understand it to a point there are other sites for that. Here I like to talk to different fans and get different perspectives even if I don’t always agree with them. As long as people don’t troll or get weirdly personal I am all for whatever happens.
Baseballisthebest
Their payroll wasn’t $168 million. It was $231 million.
FanDan
What I remember him reporting was that Padres brass were going to keep payroll closer to 24 level than 23 level for 25. 2023 40 man was around $257M. 2024 is going to be around $170M. As of right now 2025, 40 man is projected at $203M. Probably right where they want to end up. If Acee’s reporting is correct. And they have all of these position holes. Darvish, Tatis, King, Adam, Cease, Cronenworth and Arraez are getting nice bumps this year over last year due to arbitration or the way their contracts were structured. Trading Cease or King with Musgrove already out would be waving the white flag. No one wants to see a lot of Vasquez, Waldron or Brito. They have depth in the pen. Estrada and Adam can close. Arraez is a luxury piece as a DH only where they have so many position openings needing to be filled. Trading off Arraez and Suarez nets about $25M in payroll to try and address a couple of the more pressing needs.
Baseballisthebest
Padres payroll was $291 million in 2023. It was $231 million in 2024. Anything under $260 million is closer to 2024 than 2023.
FanDan
You are looking at collective AAV for CBT purposes. Not actual payroll.
websoulsurfer
You are not looking at actual payroll either. Payroll includes things like the approximately $17 million in player benefits each team pays, salaries for 40-man roster players in the minors, payment into the pre-arbitration bonus pool, and a few other items.
Acee said that Padres payroll for CBT purposes needed to be under $200 million in 2024 and that they needed to cut $100 million or more off their opening day payroll of $248 million from 2023. Neither was close to correct. The Padres CBT payroll was $231 million and opening day payroll was $164 million. Then they traded for Arraez and signed Solano, Peralta and others. Acee was wrong.
The Padres have said that they hope to keep payroll for 2025 closer to 2024 than to what they spent in 2023, but that they have no set number. That their goal remains to bring a parade to San Diego.
2024 CBT payroll was $231 and no CBT fines.
2023 CBT payroll was $291 million plus $39.7 million in CBT fines.
Spending around $260 million in 2025 is realistic.
In 2026 Arraez, Cease and King will be FA. $17 million owed to Hosmer in 2025 will come off the books. The Padres have only $140 million on the books and that includes both of the player options being exercised. Of their 7 arbitration eligible players for 2026, 5 are 1st time arb eligible and the other 2 are 2nd time eligible. Those players are expected to earn about $22.5 million. For CBT purposes they are expected to be between $169-170 million prior to any additions.
Obviously that number could change greatly with extensions for Arraez, Cease, King and even Merrill.
FanDan
I don’t think Acee was referring to CBT values when talking about payroll. The bonus pool and player benefits are part of the CBT calculation along with AAV. But if you look at COTS and Roster Resource those are added to AAV values for CBT totals and not actual/estimated 40 man payroll. For instance, COTs currently has estimated 2025 40 man payroll at $203M and CBT calc at $242M. There is a slight difference with RR. Last year COTs had 2024 final payroll at $172M and CBT calc at $233M. So I believe when Acee is talking about the team wanting to stay below $200M in 2024, he is referring to the $172M. As you know what a player is actually paid in a given season can be very different than his AAV. In 2025 quite a few players are getting nice bumps in salary without affecting their AAV.
websoulsurfer
Acee said the Padres had to have a CBT payroll under $200 million. He was wrong.
Acee said the Padres had to cut $100 million or more off the opening day payroll. He was wrong.
Blackpink in the area
People don’t seem to understand what the term “going all in” means.
The Padres have been all in the last couple years. And when you do that there is a price to pay. The Padres fans think this competitive window is going to last forever but it’s not.
Look at all the young talent they traded away last year. And for what? They got a guy in Arraez who probably isn’t worth his arbitration salary. Cease is great he’s a free agent after 2025. They got some rental relievers. The long term outlook on this isn’t good.
FanDan
The last half of this decade will be ugly. I think everyone understands that. The only piece that they might regret giving up was Dillon Head. He could be another Xavier Edwards. Other than that the trades were fine for the 2024 all-in goal. Hosmer’s contract falls off the books after next year. That helps. But Preller has loaded up the roster with some bad contracts that more likely he won’t be around to deal with when they get incredibly bad. But 25 and 26 could be competitive if he can thread the needle and move some pieces like Arraez and Suarez. Extend King, either trade Cease in July or extend a QO after the season and watch him walk. Get a draft pick in return.
Blackpink in the area
James Wood is looking like he’s going to be a very good player. MacKenzie Gore is headed for a breakout year soon. It’s a long list of players they traded away. Prior to 2024 both Snelling and Lesko were considered untouchable by many fans. Then mid season they were dealt for rental relievers. That’s not a formula for long term success.
FanDan
Yes. But Wood and Gore were not traded last year. They were traded in 22 for Soto. Who was used to get King and ultimately Cease.
Blackpink in the area
I am talking about all the talent they have traded starting with the Soto deal. Thats when the Padres started to really go for it. It’s just not sustainable. I respect the Padres for going for it i just don’t see why fans think the Padres are going to keep it going that team is not built to last.
FanDan
Correct.
Baseballisthebest
I wish I could find it now. Last offseason I saw a really good article that broke down every player that had come to the Padres via trade vs those that had been traded away by fWAR from 2016 to the end of 2023. At that v point the Padres were up by 17 fWAR. Of course that doesn’t include Cease, King, and Arraez or what the players they traded to get them did last season. Trades are always long tail events.
Blackpink in the area
Snelling
Lesko
Iriarte
Head
They have yet to make their big league debuts along with countless other prospects. Gore and Woods best years are ahead of them and still have many years of control left.
Of course the Padres were ahead in WAR value. That’s what happens when you make win now trades they help you win now and they help the other team win later.
JoeBrady
But Preller has loaded up the roster with some bad contracts
========================
Obviously not all SD fans, but some of the SD fans think these contracts are great. One of them is still defending Bogaerts.
Brew88
Gore seems to be plateauing, or even regressing
Brew88
I don’t know too many Pads fans who think Bogey’s contract is a good one at this point, but injuries haven’t helped. I still like the Tatis contract quite a bit.
Blackpink in the area
Gore is 25 years old and had a 3.53 FIP last year which was by far the best of his career. I bet he has a top 5 Cy Young finish in the next 3 years before he becomes a free agent. He is a future ace he’s just not quite there yet. If you watch him pitch you can see it.
Brew’88
I’ve personally attended at least 25 games that Gore has pitched. CY is laughable. Gore will never be anything but mediocre until he drops his WHIP considerably. Last year his WHIP was 1.42 and his atrocious career average WHIP is also over 1.4. No pitcher ever has been successful with that. I’d take him as my #4 or #5 SP perhaps, that’s about the ceiling of it.
JoeBrady
Brew88
Gore seems to be plateauing, or even regressing
==================================
Gore’s ERA has improved the past two seasons, and his ERA in his final 7 starts last years was 1.55.
He’s erratic, but improving rapidly.
Brew’88
@JoeBrady. I agree that there have been hints of minor improvement over his ERA/ERA+ from 2022 (ERA 4.50/ERA+ 84) I just don’t see where there is any evidence that he has potential as a future top 5 CY candidate. He’s got the stuff but can’t seem to locate it well (thus his very high WHIP).
His ERA+ last year was just a mediocre 103, and while his FIP improved slightly from 2022 and 2023 seasons, that’s not saying much, and that’s about the only meaningful stat that did improve.
I’ve followed Gore since 2017, have met him a few times, and I have had great hopes for him. I still do want him to excel and think he can, he’s such a great competitor, so maybe that will push him to a #3 SP.. But going into his age 26 season, I think he’s sort of lost the luster of “Future Ace”. I think he is what he is which is a solid back of rotation SP as long as he stays healthy.
Blackpink in the area
He had a 3.53 FIP last year. He’s already a number 3 starter thats not a goal that’s who he is. He’s not a back of the rotation pitcher dude that’s just not true.
Brew88
He would be on the teams I follow closely
em650r
He needs to be a DH
Any team interested???
Baseballisthebest
He needs to be a 2B. Did you notice his WAR when he was in 2022-2023?
websoulsurfer
In 2022 Arraez started more games at 1B than 2B. He still had a 4.2 WAR
Baseballisthebest
I thought he has started more games at 2B like he did in 2023. I looked it up and you are right. That bodes well for a healthy 2025 playing mostly 1B.
Heels On The Field
Slashing another $40 million off the payroll? How did the Padres revenue crash by $80 million per year? Can anyone show us that?
HalosHeavenJJ
They lost their regional sports network deal. That had to hurt financially.
Baseballisthebest
According to interviews with their President and considering the fact that they went from receiving revenue sharing and getting the extra draft pick to paying it over the last 3 seasons I don’t think their revenue went down. I think the writers is a hack with a bias.
JoeBrady
I thought that was only about a $20M hit?
websoulsurfer
It was a less than a $2 million hit. The Padres lost one payment of $8.5 million when DSG defaulted. MLB paid them 80% of that or $6.8 million. They were back on the air the very next day on all the same carriers and added 2 million potential viewers and the rest of the season the Padres did not make any less revenue per month from media than they had under their contract with DSG.
jbigz12
Peter Seidler was open to spending the cash. His family is not the same. Im sure the Pads stay under the luxury tax line again..
Baseballisthebest
They are over the CBT now.
websoulsurfer
Padres are over the CBT threshold with 5 spots on the 26-man roster to fill. fangraphs.com/roster-resource/payroll/padres They will be in the $250 range even without adding a big-name player. You can be sure that Preller is working on something big.
Rsox
Three consecutive batting titles with 3 different teams. Is walk that important if you’re already getting a single?
Baseballisthebest
OBP is important but if that is high getting there via a single is more valuable than a walk.
Yankeesforever
Let the Millenials and Gen Z keep living the illusion of wRC+.
we’ll take him and put him in the leadoff spot.
BlumpCorn
Let boomers yeet themselves into the forever box.
Yankeesforever
You Millenials and Gen Z work for Boomers.
So bring me my coffee and pay attention and you might actually learn something
BlumpCorn
Most work for gen x. Boomers are mostly retired trying to figure out how to print a pdf or send money to a Nigerian scammer pretending to be Burt Reynolds.
You have nobody working for you. Stop trying to be successful by association.
Baseballisthebest
82% of business owners are boomers and when you own a business you don’t retire.
Yankeesforever
says the Millenial or Gen X still living with their boomer parents.
BlumpCorn
You like to assume a lot about younger generations.
Says the boomer generation that was the first to not leave the next generation better off than they had it. Your parents had no help and created a world where you couldn’t fail. And you all pulled the ladder up behind you. I’m fine myself. But, your parents must be ashamed of you selfish pudgy softies of a generation.
BlumpCorn
That’s not true. Most people aren’t employed by boomers. Look at the biggest employers in the world.
Baseballisthebest
Blump, look at the ownership of those companies. Whether you look at average age of their CEOs or average age of individual stock ownership the result is roughly the same. NYSE shows the average age of a CEO of a listed stock is 67 years old. That is a Boomer.
Per a Forbes article in January of this year,
80% of all stock owned in the US is by those 55+. 72% of those 65+.
Boomers are 60-77.
Chances are you work for a Boomer.
Yankeesforever
We Boomers created the internet that you Gen Z spend all day on whining about life. Grow a pair will ya,
Now let me school your fantasy league ass about static stats,
Ever heard of a guy called Mike Gimbel, probably not, before your time but one of the first to do analytics and metrics.
See what he tried to teach about numbers in baseball is that the game isn’t based on individual moments but a collection of interconnected events that cause the value of each event to rise the more it occurs.
Let me give you an example.
If I gave you a choice of 1 homer or three singles in an inning what would you take?
Well obviously the homer because there is no guarantee you will score a run on three single and analytical numbers would agree.
But if I now offer you two homers or six singles double the original offer, you would take the 6 singles because that would equal 3 runs to the two the homers would give you and yet the metric value would not change.
That’s the trouble with viewing stats in a vacuum.
I could go on and on, but this should be enough.
Peace Gen Z
outinleftfield
That is not true best. 82% of successful businesses are owned by boomers. There are quite a lot of businesses run by people that have no experience and no business trying to employ others.
JoeBrady
BlumpCorn
Boomers are mostly retired trying to figure out how to print a pdf
===========================
Boomers designed the software you are using, and probably built the PC you are using. Y’all inherited the technology and framework developed in the 60s, 70s, and 80s.
JoeBrady
Look at the biggest employers in the world.
============================
Except for Amazon, every large US employer was started by a Boomer or someone older. You’re not helping yourself out here.
JoeBrady
Yankeesforever
We Boomers created the internet that you Gen Z spend all day
========================
Every generation invents new stuff, but most of this is just a refinement on the work done a long time ago.
For those of you of a certain age, I remember when WYSIWYG came out. I was working with a “cutting age” IBM XT and created a consolidation program for my employer. It was so slow that you had to work in manual recalc, then hit F9 and go for coffee while your spreadsheets updated.
The kids to today think they invented it, but the real fun was sitting at your desktop and pounding keys for hours on end, breaking only for more coffee.
websoulsurfer
I remember being so excited when MacWrite came out for the Macintosh in 1984. Before that only the extremely expensive workstations from IBM could actually display WYSIWYG and I didn’t have access to one of those.
JoeBrady
I remember a bunch of us (I went to an all-guys HS) communicating with girls at our sister school (girls-only) in the early ’70s, It was painfully slow and we were trying to figure just about everything, but it was also a lot of fun.
I’m 100x better off having to have figured out all this on my own, than having it handed to me.
The Saber-toothed Superfife
The hippy selfish me generation ruined everything.
They were allowed to be free. Now we have laws restricting every aspect of our lives.
Want to travel, work around this country….
FORGET IT.
You can’t even walk into a warehouse anymore, offer to sweep or move boxes….
They are so AFRAID OF BEING SUED BECAUSE OF THE GD SCAMMING HIPPIES.
THE HIIPIES.AND THE GRATEFUL.DEAD.RUINED THIS COUNTRY.
SELFISH , DISRESPECTFUL GREEDY APPLE HOLES.
tutopelotas1
You’ve got to be kidding !! … “Overrated” ? … LUIS ARRAEZ has won three consecutive batting championships (and has accomplished such an amazing feat in both leagues)…. This article by Nick Deeds could have some “analytics” value, but ‘leaves a lot to be desired’ in terms of baseball savvy !!
Texas Outlaw
I respect the 3 batting titles but also would want power and a better glove from first.
Old York
DFA him. He’s cooked.
Gwynning
Now, now… he’s no turkey!
Old York
@Gwynning
Ah, yes, the obligatory “lighthearted pun” as a substitute for actual analysis. Very clever, but perhaps you’d care to address the fact that Arraez’s rapidly declining plate discipline, lack of power, and defensive limitations make him more of a liability than an asset for a team in the Padres’ financial predicament. Or is joking about poultry as far as your insight goes? By all means, let’s keep laughing while San Diego clings to players who contribute more to the payroll crunch than to on-field success. Turkey or not, Arraez isn’t the stuffing this team needs.
HalosHeavenJJ
That high contract rate helps move runners over and facilitate hot and runs. So there’s added value behind the average and obp.
That said, $14 million is about right for his total value so I don’t think trading him will fill other holes.
At this point, let him play out the year.
FanDan
I think he is misplaced as a leadoff hitter. He does not run all that well and doesn’t steal bases. He isn’t instant offense like some leadoff hitters with power. And doesn’t take walks. He would be better off hitting in the 4th to 6th spot when guys are on base that he could drive in with a single or occasional double. Might be good in hit and run situations with speed ahead of him. I thought he should have hit behind Tatis and Merrill.
websoulsurfer
Schwarber doesn’t run well and stole fewer bases. You may be right about Arraez needing to be moved out of the leadoff spot, but only so he could hit behind Tatis at leadoff.
James Midway
They should hit him leadoff
oldguyG
He was playing with a torn ligament in his thumb was in pain . He still played through it won batting title . Like to see him after the surgery and 100% .
thickiedon
Arraez BA runners on base: .358
Arraez BA runner on 2nd: .512
Arraez BA RISP: .366
Arraez BA 9th inning: .380
Arraez BA behind in count: .302
Seems like an ideal #2 hitter
Baseballisthebest
Just wrote that I thought Padres made a mistake not hitting him 2nd and you had all the stats here already.
How many pitches per plate appearance with men on base? Running up a pitchers pitch counts when men are on base is so important.
depletion
Exactly what I was thinking. Hitting after Lindor on the Mets would be super; 32% of those stolen bases would be first and third. I don’t know what the Padres need but the Mets could deal McNeil, or Marte and put McNeil in right. Probably have to take on some salary there. He was a valuable fielder as a 2B. Above or equal to average at 2B. That 3.4% K rate was insane. 96.6% of the time he put the ball in play or walked.
❤️ MuteButton
Yo! Mr. Crane, this guy. Please?!?!
Baseballisthebest
Trade him to the Red Sox who are going to sign Soto and move Devers to DH. NESN reported that only Red Sox and Mets still in running.
Yankeesforever
now now. Santa can’t fulfill those large wishes, a Soto Yankee jersey or bobblehead doll, he can do.
Merry Christmas.
HatlessPete
They quoted one sportswriter who said he thought it was down to those two teams and characterized it as a rumor. It wasnt actual reporting. Settle down lol
websoulsurfer
Not going to happen. Soto may end up with the Red Sox this season, but Arraez won’t.
Baseballisthebest
Nick Deeds is a Sporting News level writer. He ignores facts to post his opinion and gets that wrong most of the time. Other than the fact that he will work at hours of the day that the actually decent writers on this site like Steve Adam’s won’t, why does he have a job?
Does he realize that the site he works for already posted links to articles where the team in question said the opposite of what he is claiming here?
Was considering paying for a membership, but with a large percentage of the articles being written by this hack I can’t in good conscience do so.
Gwynning
Show us on the Soto bobblehead where Nick touched you… and then get over it.
Baseballisthebest
Just won’t give the site any money. Will continue to call out Deeds for being a terrible writer. He should join Sporting News. His fact-free style would fit right in.
Gwynning
Eh, that’s your right. Cheers bub
JoeBrady
I usually just stop reading the writers I don’t like. You have an interesting hobby.
Baseballisthebest
Only been on the site a little over a week. Been trying to give him the benefit of the doubt. Being snarky to people whose comments you could skip seems like an interesting hobby.
martras
Arraez owned a wRC+ 130 line in 2022 and 2023, and yeah, I think a torn thumb ligament which required surgery would probably impact his game a bit.
He doesn’t have a lot of defensive utility, but OAA is the only metric which truly hates his defense. UZR and DRS are pretty neutral at 2B.
It has boggled my mind a bit as to why Arraez hasn’t put more effort into improving his speed and athleticism. His throwing speed has been dropping rapidly, and he’s never been an average runner. A little offseason work could really have made a big impact to his value.
Anyway, I think the Padres are best off trading him, but I don’t think he’s going to have much value due to the good, but not great batting line in 2024. At 1B/DH, $14.6MM for a 1.0-2.0 WAR player is a lot of money. While the $14.6MM figure is an MLBTR estimate, I think the Padres might be able to get that lower.
Brew88
The poll doesn’t allow for the best answer, which is to play him this year, let him become FA in 2026
KnicksFanCavsFan
Arraez would be the perfect guy to have at the top of any lineup, edifice the Yanks. A contact hitter that can hit in front of Soto and Judge at the 1 or 2 spot?. His OBP is top 10 over the last 3 years. In this day and age, 372 obp is elite. But I don’t
nosake
This article reads like Jurickson Profar is gone. First I’m hearing this. Hope it’s not true.
Rally Goose
Free agent. They can sign him but so can everyone else.
Niekro floater
If this guy could take a walk he’d be like Boggs or Gwynn n not afraid to hit w/2 strikes. Like they say, “u don’t walk your way off the island u hit your way off it.”
Baseballisthebest
I think the Padres made a mistake in not hitting him 2nd in that lineup. Tatis has speed and Arraez puts the ball in play at such a high rate that I think they would have scored more runs.
Next season after he is traded to the Red Sox I could see Duran, Arraez, Soto, Devers.
outinleftfield
The place in the lineup where Arraez has hit best is 3rd and 5th, but because of his lack of power most teams have chosen not to hit him in that spot. He has 1800 Pa 1st and only 221 3rd and half that 5th. Only 41 starts and 181 PA hitting 2nd in his career for whatever reason.
Most of Tatis’ PA are hitting 2nd in the lineup and that is where he does the worst. 1201 PA in the 2 slot vs 741 PA hitting leadoff
So maybe you are right. Tatis in leadoff and Arraez hitting 2nd might have been better.
Arraez is not being traded. Preller already said that much. The question is not if he is traded. Its if he is extended or allowed to play out his deal.
damancash
Next season after he is traded to the Red Sox I could see Duran, Arraez, Soto, Devers
where did you see them ?
were they eating in the same restaurant?
Cuz they certainly won’t be playing for the same team
outinleftfield
I have to assume he is talking about the NESN report that its down to the Red Sox and Mets for Soto.
Baseballisthebest
That is the episode I was talking about. Do you listen to NESN? Thought you were an Angels fan from your comments.
Gwynning
I wouldn’t be surprised if the Pads carry a payroll over the CBT line. Nobody has really said that cuts were necessary!
Brew88
Many in media keeps saying it though, Shirley they must have insider scoop with Pads FO rest of us dont
Gwynning
Maybe they do, maybe they don’t… and don’t call me Shirley!
>.<
Rally Goose
Keep him. He was one of their biggest producers on offense this past season. It was never a secret that his salary would go up this offseason. If that was such a problem why trade their most recent first rounder for him in the first place?
towinagain
They’ll probably do the opposite of what I’m hoping for so, oh well.
The Saber-toothed Superfife
If only the Tigers had hired, the right person.
rockingryan
Sell him to Germany
Crush Davis
I’m not sure why there’s an assumption the Padres are going to cut payroll. The have several players on walk years this year and should be all in.
Arraez isn’t going to age well, but he fits well on the current roster at 1b/dh.
outinleftfield
Arraez doesn’t hit for power or play the field at high leverage position like SS or CF. What he does is hit for contact. That is a skill that ages very well.
FanDan
They aren’t cutting payroll. This years payroll will be higher than last year. The problem is that they have a lot of openings in the field and the rotation they need to fill to be competitive and not increase payroll anymore. That is where they need to trade guys like Arraez and Suarez to go get a SS, OF, C and SP for about the same money.
WestVillageTiger
Cyber Monday Special!
Torkelson for Arraez straight up!
Former 1-1 for a former Batting Champ!!
Only 30 hours left to pick up the phone!!!
FanDan
Two guys who play the same position. One who can hit and one who can’t. No thanks.
Acoss1331
Luis just needs to learn to play first base. It’s not that hard, he just needs Ron Washington to show him how.
The biggest tr0ll
If I were the Padres, I’d trade him. He’s a 1 WAR player who isn’t going to do much besides get on base.
Rally Goose
Billy Beane: *breathes heavily*
The biggest tr0ll
Unless you play the game where everyone gets on base, it doesn’t work so well for him. There’s too much reliance on power these days
damancash
Send him to the Dodgers for a deferred package of still yet to be born genetically engineered cyborg pitching prospects ( Japanese design ). Along with a Tommy Lasorda clone created from the DNA extracted from the tears that fell from his eyes as he looked down from Dodger heaven to see his beloved franchise had ruined baseball
DroppedThirdStrike
“…beloved franchise had won the World Series.”
JoeBrady
1-I think he is overrated.
2-But he still has value. SD should keep him.
3-All that depends on their payroll. If they want to duck under the cap, they will have to make tough decisions. Losing Musgrove, Kim, and Profar puts them in a bind.
SteveFinleyEnthusiast
While I acknowledge his very real flaws (power, defense, doesn’t walk enough), I would prefer to extend him. I suppose I’m nostalgic for his contact hitting skills. He’s no Tony Gwynn (who is?), but he’s about as close as it gets in that regard.
Probably a good thing I’m not a GM.
Lanidrac
To compare Arraez to Hall of Fame position players: He has the contact ability of Stan Musial, the walking ability of Vladimir Guerrero, the power of Ozzie Smith, and the defense of David Ortiz.
You decide how much that is worth altogether.
websoulsurfer
One of the options in the poll has already been settled. Arraez will be a Padre in 2025. Preller has already said so. The only questions that are relevant are will he be extended between now and the end of the 2025 season? or will the Padres allow him to walk at the end of 2025?
Arraez is 27. Only 3 other players in the live ball era, Rogers Hornsby, Stan Musial, and Rod Carew, have had 3 batting titles by that age. Gwynn didn’t. Boggs didn’t. That is pretty heady company.
In 2022-2023 Arraez put up 9.1 WAR. In 2024 he was traded in May and then tore a ligament in his left thumb June 25th and played with that injury through the end of the season.
To actually think at his age and being healthy in 2025 that he can’t rebound to play at that same level is an astounding leap. Obviously the Padres believe he will, or he would have been non-tendered or traded already and instead they have said that he will absolutely be back in 2025.
As far as the Padres further cutting payroll, no one on the Padres has said so. ALL they have said about payroll is that they are hoping to keep 2025 payroll closer to what they spent in 2024 than to 2023 when they had a $291 million payroll. Last season they ended up at $231 million after Acee said they absolutely had to be under $200 million. His “news” means about as much as that from any blogger or commenter on here and turns out to be true about as often.
The Padres are already over the CBT threshold for 2025 and have to add a catcher, a LF, several bench type pieces, and a starting pitcher. I fully expect their payroll to be around $260 million, higher if they find a player they feel they must have to take the next step. Preller is known for his trades, and I am quite sure several are coming, but from his own lips we know it won’t be Arraez.
damascusj
@websoulsurfer and that’s also considering the CBT number, the actual payroll for this season is going to be much lower, but I do agree they will be over the CBT. Since they were able to reset their CBT figures last season
I certainly hope they keep him and even extend him, his energy in the clubhouse was a big part of this team, and I believe with a healed thumb he will be much much better
The Saber-toothed Superfife
Trade him to “my team” , should have been a poll choice…..
MetsFan74
If he doesn’t strikeout and there’s a runner on third base, that runner should score from a groundout or sacrifice fly or he should join him on first base ( if he didn’t pop up), right?
If he gets on base and he doesn’t score, that’s on the team for not driving him in, right?
I don’t understand the hate for getting on base a lot but no hate for rally killers like grounding into double plays and even worse, a batter striking out.
JoeBrady
I don’t understand the hate for getting on base a lot
========================
I don’t think anyone hates that. I think a lot of posters just point out that his overall hitting is weak for a guy that plays 1B/DH.
gorav114
How can he have 1 war in a season with 200 hits. Really empty hitter
Lanidrac
To be fair, his poor defense also plays a major role in that.
Gwynning
Or even “lack of defense” in that he plays low WAR positions (1B & DH)
damascusj
I like arraez, on top of his great contact, he also is a great clubhouse guy, always full of energy and so positive.
I hope they figure something out cause Peter Seidler would be rolling in his grave with how cheap the franchises is now…
Not looking forward to the dodgers signing everyone and their brother and the padres cutting everyone of not and joining the As in baseball obscurity
martevious
Arraez is overrated; Soto is not overrated
CrikesAlready
Backloaded contract??? The entire team is on backloaded contracts.
hotcorner
I played many years ago, hit .342 over 4 years in college and would love playing with a fella like Arraez. Every time he comes to the plate he is a threat, a disrupter. And he gets on base for Tatis, Machado, Merrill, Bogaerts, Profar and Cronenworth. The Padres played great baseball after they got him and if they won one more game against the Dodgers, they might have beaten the Yanks in the series too. Keep him. Screw the War and any other stat. He plays ball. He’s happy and positive for the team! Fans love him.