Vladimir Guerrero Jr. is eligible for free agency after the 2025 season, and his future is undoubtedly the biggest looming question hanging over the Blue Jays as they prepare for what might be their final year of control over the All-Star first baseman. GM Ross Atkins said at season’s end that the Jays would be looking to start extension talks this winter, and Guerrero himself confirmed these negotiations were taking place in a recent interview with Abriendo Sports (hat tip to Z101’s Hector Gomez and Sportsnet’s Ben Nicholson-Smith).
Guerrero reiterated that he has interest in staying in Toronto, and is “ready to go” in signing an extension if the Jays meet his asking price. However, “what they offered me is not even close to what I’m looking for,” Guerrero said, noting that Toronto’s most recent offer was worth around $340MM. Notably, this offer came after Juan Soto signed his 15-year, $765MM deal with the Mets, and completely reset the market for superstar players.
Only limited time may be available to close the gap that exists between the two sides, as Guerrero said that he has let the front office know that he will cease negotiations after the first full day of the Jays’ Spring Training camp. It is a bit of an unusual self-imposed deadline date, as most players set Opening Day as their unofficial endpoint for reaching an extension. Obviously an extension can happen at any point before a player enters free agency, yet players generally prefer to keep focused only on baseball once the season begins, and thus contract talks are usually limited to the offseason.
It isn’t uncommon for some deals, of course, to be announced a few days or weeks into April, if talks are on the proverbial five-yard line by Opening Day and just a few final details needed to be confirmed. Likewise, Guerrero probably isn’t going to end all talks in late February if he and the Jays have worked out most aspects of a very lucrative (and therefore rather complex) extension. That said, reducing the remaining negotiation window to roughly two months is a pretty public way of increasing the pressure on Toronto’s front office.
This is purely speculation on my part, but the earlier “deadline” could also be Guerrero’s way of leaving the door open for a trade. If an extension can’t be worked out before Spring Training properly begins and the Blue Jays feel Guerrero won’t re-sign next winter, the Jays could pivot and try to trade Guerrero for some longer-term assets prior to Opening Day. To be clear, if Toronto spends the rest of its offseason adding talent to take another run at contention in 2025, it would seem far more likely that the Jays just keep Guerrero to keep their roster as strong as possible in what might be something of a final run for the Guerrero/Bo Bichette core.
The length of the $340MM offer wasn’t specified, but a ten-year, $340MM pact produces “only” an average annual value of $34MM per season, which ranks tied for the 15th-highest AAV in baseball history. Nine years and $340MM is a $37.77MM AAV that ranks as the seventh-highest all-time, topped only by the most recent deals signed by Soto, Shohei Ohtani, Max Scherzer, Justin Verlander, Zack Wheeler, and Aaron Judge. An eight-year, $340MM pact equals $42.5MM in AAV, putting Guerrero behind only Soto, Ohtani, Scherzer, and Verlander.
Guerrero doesn’t turn 26 until March, however, so an eight-year deal only runs through his age-33 season. Even a ten-year deal brings Guerrero through just his age-35 campaign, and a longer-term deal in the $340MM range only lowers the AAV to an even greater extent. It isn’t necessarily clear what Guerrero is looking for in terms of contract length, but in terms of pure dollars, it is easy to see why he would balk at an offer worth slightly more than half of what Soto (who is also entering his age-26 season) received from New York.
From the Blue Jays’ perspective, the gap in production between Soto and Guerrero would justify a gap in earnings, though it isn’t quite as large a divide as one might imagine. Soto’s huge 2024 campaign with the Yankees boosted his asking price through the ceiling, but looking just at his first six MLB seasons, Soto hit .284/.421/.524 with 160 home runs in 3375 plate appearances, with a 154 wRC+ and 28.2 fWAR.
Through his first six MLB seasons, Guerrero has hit .288/.363/.500 in 3540 PA, with the exact same total of 160 homers, and a 137 wRC+ and 17 fWAR. For both players, their value is largely derived from their bat, as public defensive and baserunning metrics paint Guerrero and Soto as well below average in both departments.
The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal recently discussed what it might take to extend Guerrero, and floated the idea of a contract of somewhere between $500MM-$600MM. Assuming no deferred money would be involved, this would make Guerrero the second-highest paid player in baseball history, behind only Soto. “Excessive as it might sound to the average fan…keep in mind, the Jays would need to pay a premium for preventing Guerrero from testing the market. And if they lose him, their already disgruntled fan base might revolt,” Rosenthal writes.
The latter point is another over-arching element of the Guerrero talks, as perhaps no executives in baseball are on as much of a hot seat as Atkins and team president Mark Shapiro. While the Blue Jays came out of a rebuild to reach the playoffs in 2020, 2022, 2023, the club didn’t win even a single game during those trips to the postseason, and Toronto’s nosedive to a 74-88 record in 2024 could be a sign that the Jays’ competitive window could already be closed.
Toronto’s ardent pursuits of both Ohtani last offseason and Soto this winter indicated that ownership was prepared to go the distance in bidding on top-flight talent, though it remains to be seen if the Jays view Guerrero quite in the same tier those other two superstars. It was just a year ago that Guerrero was coming off an underwhelming 118 wRC+ in 2023, and there were questions about whether Guerrero was even worth any kind of long-term investment. For comparison’s sake, Soto’s “worst” full season as calculated by wRC+ was his 2019 campaign, when he posted a 143 wRC+ in 659 PA while also catching fire in the postseason to help the Nationals win the World Series.
Viewing Guerrero in relation to Soto specifically is a comp that Guerrero’s reps at the Prime Agency would likely welcome, as it keeps Guerrero even subconsciously linked to Soto’s elite salary tier. Rafael Devers’ ten-year, $313.5MM extension with the Red Sox is also frequently mentioned as a Guerrero comp, as Devers was also entering his age-26 season. Guerrero has some statistical edge (Devers had a 123 wRC+ in his first six seasons prior to his extension) and thus an argument to earn more than Devers got from Boston, but perhaps the Blue Jays’ $340MM-ish number reflects the idea of Guerrero as only slightly better than Devers.
It could also be, of course, that the Jays are willing to pay well above $340MM, but offered that figure as an early gauge on Guerrero’s asking price in the wake of Soto’s contract. Plenty of time still exists for the two sides to eventually match up on an acceptable extension, and it could be that Guerrero backs off his early-spring deadline if some progress has been made, even if a new deal isn’t exactly imminent.
Lol this will be fun
Padres and Jays make a fine trade partner.
Cronenworth, Salas, Bateman, Cruz, Fountain for Bichette and Guerrero.
Or some other combo.
Both teams match up.
Any team with top prospects matches up with the Jays if they want to deal Vladdy.
That’ll be the official start of a rebuild.
I’d send him out of town because he is after Juan Soto money, and it isn’t worth it in my opinion. Great hitter though.
Trade Bo to the Giants for Luciano and Mason Black.
Prospects are a dime a dozen many of them turn out to be duds , Blad is an established superstar , why would you trade him away at 26 years old when the prospects you get may be all duds
Did he tell you he was after Soto money he would probably settle for 500 million if Atkins and Shapiro would have signed him earlier if they were not dumb ass useless
People say Juan Soto wasn’t worth Soto money. Guerrero jr has touched 6 war only twice and wants 160 million more than pujols got in December 2011.
I can’t think of a time where a team trades an absolute top prospect for a rental, if the padres trade salas (which they shouldn’t they got no catchers) it would be for a controllable star
Mariners Fan the first one off the top of my head is Aroldis Chapman for Gleyber Torres and that was a deadline deal.
Didn’t the Red Sox just do this to acquire Crochet?
Crochet wasn’t a rental
Still loving that trade as a White Sox fan, Wikelman Gonzalez looks good, Meidroth looks like the second coming of Ryne Sandberg.
Except for the fact that the Padres have, and continue to try to cut payroll during the last two offseasons. They are not going to deal for two guys who are about to receive big paydays as they are not likely the team that would pay both.
Why would we include Salas?
Tow – Any acquiring team would need to be able to extend him. Padres are unlikely to be able to do so, even with his BFF on the team.
If, as Padres fans we are more concerned about the budget than the personell on the field, than we have lost the beauty of being a fan.
Sports are entertainment.
We as fans do not get reimbursed by the Padres to assist with the construction of the budget/implementation of it.
As a fan, you have every right to set the bar high for your team, if in fact your goal and desire is to win a WS.
We are not employed by the Padres accounting department or even the team itself.
We are fans.
Fans can demand more.
If the team does not adhere or support the fans by putting their best foot forward/best team on the field fans can vote with their feet.
There are a myriad of other entertainment options in SD.
No t 4 guys on your list could match up to Vlad but dumb ass Shapiro and Atkins have brought in crap to play with Vlad for the last 3 years , and those 2 twits have destroyed this Franchise with their moves.
Good for Vlad get what he can from them and Rogers and if he does not get it here there are plenty of teams out there that will pay him . .Look at statistics Vlad has put up without any help from other hitters and look whst line up Soto has played with in Washington we’re he won a World Series and San Diego and last year Yankees , look at hitters around Soto in line up and look at what crap Vlad has around him.
Toronto kinda hurt themselves with them showing off how much they can and were willing to spend with Otani and Soto.
That sucks.
15/570 for fatty doo doo
Guy is completely delusional. I wouldn’t give him more than 5 150. He’s a fat unathletic nepo baby. If his name was Jon smith you’d compare him to Pete Alonso.
Vladdy is gonna repeat the prince fielder situation as a savant hitter but fat and get 9 years 275 mil
Maybe it gets as high as 350 but then that’s Bryce Harper and mookie betts money
If Vlad Jr. gets $400 million then Betts and Harper are worth big prospect returns. So is Freddie Freeman.
Freeman is way, way better than Vlad Jr.
Freeman is better at the momen. But because of the Age difference Vladd could very well end up as good if not better the Freddy in the end. Vladd is worth 450 million over a 12 year period
Maybe 10 years ago I’d go with Freedman……get real.
No… they just want their kids to earn their spot like everyone else has to.
It depends on what is agent is demanding, There is no way this will play out well long term. If the Soto deal truly reset the market, the fans will be the ones to pay. Sadly if MLB could get money out of Netflix, they’d take it like they tried to do with Peacock. Baseball remains a regional sport and the Bally situation should give more teams concern.
And Vladdy hasn’t earned his spot in MLB?
Did you watch him at all this year? He’s big and strong, but hardly fat. Did you know that after April, Vlad was statistically better than Soto, despite not having an Aaron Judge-type protecting him in the lineup?
And why would a 25-year-old who just batted .323 with a .940 OPS and less than 100 strikeouts be compared to 30-year-old Pete Alonso and his homer-or-bust profile?
In 2023 Vlad Jr. was huge and fat and not good at all.
After he gets paid he’ll quickly become a 300 pound DH with middling numbers.
Way to comment on someone’s weight and work ethic. You sound like a peach at parties. In keeping your “heels on the field”, you may want to take your head out of your ass
2023 Vladd wasn’t his best year but he was still better than 16 percent of big leaguers he played hurt most of that year. Also Bo was way better in 23 but was hurt 24 these guys are still young and are some of the best in the Bigs they will both get paid a high amount in free agency.
26 homers and a decent obp says otherwise. He’s had at least 2 elite seasons
I guess you wouldn’t be having him play for you.
Barely. Jr. was fat and horrid in 2023. I was serious that the Jays should consider non-tendering him after that season.
He got in much better shape for 2024 because he wants that big contract but MLB teams know what’s coming after he gets paid.
Dewey- The fans are always the ones that pay!
Bullred: sad but true.
@el_chapo
Most ridiculous thing I’ve heard you say. Vlady is by far, a much better hitter than Alonzo. Hr was percentage points away from being a 300/400/500 hitter last year. He hits for a better average, draws me walks, strikes out less and hits for as much, if not more power. He’s also 5 years younger.
@pile
And in Vlad’s case, insinuating he’s where he’s at because of his father is incredibly stupid. Vlad had been a beast for a couple of years
Pretty sure that even if they do earn their way, there’s going to be keyboard warriors whining about nepo babies.
Remember – children of baseball players tend to have interest in the careers of their parents, just like children of parents from many different careers have interest in their parents’ careers. They also have more opportunity to learn the sport. This isn’t an instantly disqualifying thing, no matter how jealous you are.
Lots of angry morons. Was I talking about Vlad? I was responding to the other idiot who said “The hate for kids of rich parents is funny. People just want rich people to not have kids”
Here is a guy that knows nothing about baseball
I am sick and tired of people trying to put down Vlad statistics and his all star production on the Blue Jays . In the last 4 years who has Vlad had hit in front of him and behind him in the line up thanx to Atkins and Shapiros and Rogers who have signed no one of any value to hit around him and Bo . His statics when compared to Sotos are very similar and Sotos number are a little better but look who hit around him on the teams he has played for.
In Washington he had
Trea Turner
Harper
Rendon
Zimmerman
Eating
Robles
In San Diego
Bogarts
Much ado
Fernandez Jr.
Cronenworth
In New York
Stanton
Judge
Volpe
Lemaheu
Rizzo
In Toronto Vlad has only had Bo and unfortunately injured all last year and Look at numbers Vlad put up.
Vlad will get over 500 million easy if he goes to another team
Now Soto goes to Mets look at the players that will be hitting around him.
And Atkins , Shapiro and Rogers are doing the same thing this year same minor league players signed up to now , so obviously Vlad wants out of this incompetent people ruining this organization saying Vlad is not a star yet
If Blad leaves get ready for less than 50 win seasons
Who is the idiot
I’d pay him in philly cheesesteaks
I can see 12/$480
He’s going into his age 26 season, and he’s coming off a really good year at the plate, and he’s already putting up a price point for what he wants. Unless Toronto gives him what he wants, he’s walking next offseason and chasing the biggest bag possible. If he puts up another season, or better, in 2025 he’s gone.
He’s from Canada. The Jays have money. I think he shops around but he ends up back with the Jays.
He’s from Quebec, which technically is Canada, a lot from there consider themselves different than Canadian. Toronto doesn’t consider themselves Quebecois by any means. He lived in Montreal until he was like 4. It plays no part in his decision making. He will take the most money offered.
I think the Jays will offer him the most money. And I am sure it will be a factor in his decision making. If 2 teams offer the same he will stay with the Jays.
“He’s from Canada”
His dad was just playing baseball up there at the time. He’s fully Dominican. Won’t hold any weight.
He’s spent a lot of time in Canada before he was a big leaguer and now the last few years when he was a big leaguer
Yeah I think it matters. Not just to him but to the Jays.
@Ragnarok, he was technically born in Canada (Montreal), and lived there until he was 4-5 years old. Then has played there for the past 6 years. And has spent much of his teenage years in both the US and DR. He is as much Dominican as he is American and Canadian. Nationality shouldn’t play a role in his decision. He will take what makes him most comfortable, be it money or familiarity of his upbringing. But to say he is “fully Domincan” is a lie. Unless you know him personally you can’t comment on what he considers hit home Nation.
Technically Canada? It’s absolutely Canada, what are you going on about lol.
Canada is fine but two things, it’s cold off season and the border can be hassling. I’d consider retiring there if the weather was not a factor but to work and have to constantly deal with border issues, I’d think twice.
Depends where you go. Southern Ontario has less extreme winters than New England does.
Baseball is played in the summer. Spring and fall games are played in a climate controlled dome. Unlike NY, Boston, etc. weather isn’t an issue. Crossing the border isn’t the same either, as you and I. They have private planes that are cleared before touching down. Customs is an extra 20 minutes of their day. If thats an issue it speaks to the person not the country. A spoiled baby is a spoiled baby
Do you think they only care about the weather for their games?
deweybelongsinthehall…..the border hassle is about to get worse for you. Increased security checks. Rumor has it, the check includes the rubber glove treatment.
…tikiagedola…please explain with data.
Seattle is second on that list behind Canada. No one wants to play here either.
Do you think players stay in New York for the winter ?
The problem with let him shop around is that someone will offer Vlad over 500 million easy
Victoria, British Columbia is in a rain shadow and has highest average temps anywhere in Canada. A lot of Canadians flock there for retirement.
Lol I spent close to 25 years living in Canada but working 80% of my time in the US.. It was only a problem if you let it get to you..
He’s going to get less than he thinks on the open market.
Yes but more than he’s so far been offered…
What team do you think goes over 35M a year for him?
Red Sox, Yankees (if he’d go there). Maybe teams like the Tigers or Nationals. The Cubs, if they remember they aren’t poor.
Yeah, teams will pay more than whats been offered. I’m not surprised that the Jays management have offered what they have but timing is everything and if they offered it just after the season ended Vladdy might have been more inclined to sign it. As it stands now it’s a little light. I predicted 360m for 10 years last year but that might be a little short as well now. He might want the years extended out to 13 or 14 years which I wouldn’t want to do. Free agency at 27 can make teams do weird things so yes a team would definitely pay him more.
Every time you wait the price could go up even more.
Half the league
Structure the contract to pay more upfront and maybe deferrals so the last 3 years are good.
None of the teams you mentioned will pay Junior that kind of money on a decade long deal.
Junior will be looking for a job in March.
It’s the age. He’s so young like Soto. He’s going to get a huge contract.
Another mentioned Prince Fielder. Another is Albert Pujols. Be careful on the length when dealing with big first basemen. Same reason with Alonso who is older. You better get plus production the first half of the deal
His listed age or his real age?
I think we know his real age. His dad was in the majors when he was born in Montreal.
100 percent not true he will get more especially if he continues on pace as last season, good bye jays and deal with last place for years and many 50 Win season
It’s probably an unpopular opinion but the best thing we can do is trade him right now. He’s only had 2 elite seasons. I expect this walk year to also be elite, but overpaying for a first baseman is not a great idea. The only way they’d be competitive down the road is if ownership commits to being a luxury tax team.
They need to rebuild and hire people who can draft.
No, at this point that is probably the smart play. Toronto isn’t going to $500+ million and could add 3 or players/prospects in a trade and then sign Alonso for half of what Toronto’s last offer to Guerrero was
That’s spot on. For the sake of keeping the homegrown superstar, offer 500/12.
Similar to the Nats trying to extend Soto, if he turns down the one uniform for life offer you have to try and convert this into an opportunity for controllable dynamic talent.
It’s only December but TOR does not seem positioned well within the AL East this year. There’s little point in diminishing the return by waiting until late July or just grabbing a QO comp pick- make the big offer then trade him as soon as possible if he turns it down to maximize the return value.
He’s not Soto so the return shouldn’t be as strong. Who has two good pitchers to trade as good as what the Yankees gave SD never mind the rest of the return?
Last place with those ideas
Fat does not age well.
Maybe he should go to Arizona. Sweat off some of that fat and eat a lot of salads.
Bartolo Colon would disagree.
You realize you are complaining about a 26 year old only having 2 elite seasons? If you want someone good now you pay him in his prime right now. Or you just curl into a ball if your team sucks and let him leave. Jays need to do something and letting their only star walk would be ugly.
I think that’s what I would do. I would sign Alonzo now to split 1b and Dh with Vladdy and trade Bo and Vladdy at the deadline. Hopefully Bo reestablishes himself in the first half of the season but dump him either way.
I wouldn’t have agreed with this at the begging off the offseason.
But given Atkins big acquisition is another gold glove .690 OPS type this team has no chance to compete next year, especially not with how the Yankees, Red Sox and O’s went about their offseason.
Atkins waited out the market and lost.
Best thing for this Jays team to do is fire everyone in the FO, maybe save for Click. Trade everyone with value and start a dark period again. Very sad that this period had so much hope, especially after 2021.
Mets
Yeah, I think that’ll be the case. Cohen is going to see the lefty/righty combo back to back and wonder what that’ll do. I’m sure it’s one of the reasons they haven’t moved forward with Alonso. Stearns will fill the gap for a year, even if it’s with Vientos, just to give the boss what he will want.
Man, I don’t know. Vladdy has been in the league six seasons. He was elite in two of them. In the other four ones, he wasn’t any better than Alonso. Yes, he’s younger than Alonso but at this rate, Alonso will cost 1/3 the amount of money (long term) that Vladdy will.
On top of that, Mets have about $100 million locked into just three players (Lindor, Nimmo, Soto) every year until until 2030 (when Nimmo expires). I’m not sure they want to add another $35 million on Vlad unless they could have some certainty/consistency with his performance. Is Vlad a 2 WAR player or a 6 WAR player? Yes, Cohen is rich. But Stearns is now there to curb some of his impulses.
Crazy to think the Vlad/Bo era in Toronto might be coming to a close without winning a single postseason game.
Shapiro and Atkins were given team record payrolls and tremendous buy-in from Rogers (the Dunedin complex and ballpark renos were massive investments) and still couldn’t field a winner. The “waves of talent” from the farm system has yet to show up 10 years later. All the managers and coaches they’ve assembled have fallen short of expectations.
All of this is to say sure, extend Guerrero. He’s a great player. But keeping him doesn’t change the fact that the trajectory of the franchise is not very promising.
Angels had Trout/Ohtani for 6 years and never even played a postseason game, at least they got farther than that
While that’s very true, being better than one of the worst run orgs in baseball probably isn’t helping Jays fans sleep at night.
Rollie- M’s fan might disagree on who has the worst owner/FO.
How is that even possible? Not only that, they were hardly competitive. At least you wouldn’t have to jump too far to join the Dodgers bandwagon- something I’m typically against, but poor Angel fans man!
Don’t forget Biggio, who set a major league record for spending the most time on an MLB roster because of his name!
I thought that record would go to either Dale Berra or Billy Ripken. There are probably others but I’m not that well versed on relatives in baseball.
Tommie Aaron played 7 seasons with a -2.8 WAR, thanks to Hank. Dale Berra and Billy Ripken (and Cavan Biggio) had some good years, Tommie never did.
Oh, and in this time Alex Anthropolis won a world series with another team and signed Acuna to a cheep deal
Hope the Os are watching
OOoooOOOOooOOO he set a deadline ohhhh boy guy thinks he’s his dad or something. Sure buddy, set deadlines all you want, you’re still under contract.
Seriously???? That’s how you manage a franchise generational talent by telling him he’s under contract? Toronto is a bad move away from oblivion for a decade. I’d take the warning to heart and figure out plan B quickly or the front office will be toast.
the yankees have their plan b… guerrero next offseason. goldy for one year says it all. jays better get that done, or he will be pounding them for a while.
Dude is a chunky first baseman who has averaged about 4 WAR per season over the last four years, and is just one year removed from posting just 1.3, and he thinks Soto has reset his market? And shame on MLBTR for acting like he’s also a “superstar.” Zero MVP awards, just 1 Top 5 MVP finish, less than 1/3rd the way to a HoF WAR total, virtually no defensive value, one season of 35+ HR, middling walk rate. Come on.
7 or 8 years at 200-250M I don’t know where fat boy and his agent are getting 300+ from unless he literally wins AL MVP this season.
His WAR value and popularity would indicate that a purely fair market deal, right now, if he hit free agency today, would in fact be about $37.5M to $42.5M per season, regardless of how many years it was- be it 3 years or 12 years- and that range of AAV is dependent on how many teams are bidding things up.
Simply put: The old $30M player is now the new $37.5M player, the old $35M player is now the new $40M player, etc. and its taking fans a long time to deal with this, it seems.
True and someone not named Toronto will pay 400+ for that. Reality hits hard quickly and Toronto better act appropriately or they’ll be looking up for a long time.
Junior will be looking for work in March 2026.
He’s never seeing $400mil from anyone.
Everyone knows Vladdy will be 300 pounds plus before he turns 28.
If he averaged 4 WAR no reason to mention the 1 bad season because it’s factored in the average.
It’s securing his peak years as a 26 year old that is just so rare and will be leveraged in total contract value.
He has been marketable since being baseballs top prospect, making hitting .400 seem easy in the upper minors as a teenager.
He has a 6.3 and a 5.3 season already and everything seemed to click last year. Of course bat only contracts are nail biters but his savant page backs up his talent and again he’ll sell jerseys being a second generation star. I’d offer him roughly $500 if I was TOR- his value to them is more than just the on field product and if he says no, flip him immediately.
A 28 year old 300 plus pound DH is rare too and every MLB team knows that’s exactly what Junior will be.
Crossover example being from the NBA, but the New Orleans Pelicans have a weight clause in Zion Williamson’s contract which opens up possible voids.
Maybe an interested team could get creative along those lines if they were worried enough.
While I agree the Soto comps are silly, Francisco Lindor had a career 115 OPS+, only 1 top-5 MVP finish, and averaged just 4.4 bWAR before signing for $341MM with the Mets.
He plays a different position obviously, but let’s not kid ourselves. Players of Lindor and Vladdy’s caliber get PAID.
Lindor is a plus fielding SS who is worth two plus wins more each year than Vlad Jr. in a contract year.
That’s after he signed his contract. He had seasons of 1.3 bWAR and 3.0 bWAR in his final two years before signing it, and still made bank. My point still stands.
Vladdy is at 4.81 War per 162 games played over the last 4 years.
Danger, Will Robinson! With lack of personal conditioning, he will be out of the league in 5 years ! Hey, hey, hey,! Look at your father, he is still in better shape!
He wants the same amount as Soto but hasn’t won a single postseason game and produced 11 fwar less than Soto over the same time period.
Let’s end the speculation, he’s hitting the market no matter what and a year from now still won’t get the dough he’s apparently asking for unless he has his best year to date in 25.
He doesn’t want the same amount as Soto.
I’d rather wait for Munetaka Murakami in 2026.
Jays should trade him now to cash in and replenish the farm system.
This guy will be lucky to get even Alonso like money. DH/1B type are worth 15 million a year at most. Trade him and sign JD Martinez to DH.
Due to his ego, I wouldn’t be surprised to see him wanting a bigger than Soto contract…and then him flaming out at around 30 like Prince Fielder.
8/340 is probably the top of the free agent market for him. He’s letting TOR know they will have to overpay for his services. Atkins/Shapiro made TOR the 2nd worse free agent destination. The Pirates will win more games this year.
8/200
With regrets from the signing team three years later.
So obviously Vlad Dracula agent is informing Toronto that it will take 10years at 500 million to sign him right now and if they don’t they may as well trade him right now. This sounds allot like Soto last year so I’m guessing Vlad will now be dealt before spring training and I’ll bet money it’s to the Mets! Alonso will than sign in Toronto. You heard it hear first. Mets will go into spring training with Soto and Vlad!
The more I see these articles and player salaries the more I respect teams like my Astros who refuse to give these long term bs contracts. Let’s not forget, with the exception of Cole, everyone they let go ended up being overpaid and not worth their next contract.
No way I’d pay this dude $340M. The article says the gap between he and Soto “is not quite as large as you’d imagine” yet then goes on to point out that Soto had 28fwar over his first 6 seasons vs 17 fWAR for Vlad Jr. That’s only 3fwar more than half of Soto’s production. Coupled with the fact he is larger player, already relegated to 1b only, and extremely less likely to age well he shouldn’t be “understandbly balking” at $340M dollars.
Before anyone comes on here and asks “why do you care what owners pay, it’s not your money?” let me explain – MOST owners are less likely to hand out more contracts when they are already overpaying someone else so I’d rather my team not hand out long term poor contracts.
Good luck to whomever overpays this guy. Most likely only Going to get 3-4 great seasons.
I’ll give you this- the Greinke contract hogtied Arizona for a few years- it was bizarre to see them lay out that cash to secure Greinke’s services, only to virtually freeze all their spending whilst Greinke was on their books.
Give him 10 years $340 million and an endless supply of Twinkies
Hey, hands off the Twins. They’ve got nobody to spare as it is.
That’s too fair of a deal, unfortunately, haha.
His biggest strength is that he’s not as good looking as Wander Franco so that you have less worry about him being in trouble with the minors.
Pretty cold blooded there brother…
Ariana, Vlad is a married man with children of his own, so your comment is just a whole pile of nonsense!!!
LOL at thinking he does, A pretty lame come back there buddy. trying to put shade against a guy who has never had anything like that attached to him. A pretty low down way of trying to put someone down.
I am not from Toronto and your attempt at justifying your stance is lamed and based on what actual stats or just your made up stats??
They could have had him for half of this two years ago. Then Atkins decided to let Scott Boras use jays to raise Ohtani/Soto.price.
Congratulations on your brilliant hindsight.
How is that hindsight ? Smh. MLB salaries have been skyrocketing for decades and they have had him under control for 5/6 years and could have paid him Tatis money back then. Everyone was screaming for them to do so and they never did.
350 mil would have got the job done 5 years ago. Now he’s unsignable and the jays have been blowing that opportunity for years ! Seeing all that play out is not hindsight, it’s poor management
Yeah that is so true! The Jay’s management team has blown the handling of this kid. Once upon a time $350M would have got the deal done.The Jay’s might end up missing out on Vladdy which is probably fine as I don’t like anchoring a team to an albatross contract. These super long contracts never work out in the end.
Think about this Red Sox fans. Devers got way too much money because he’s from the Dominican Republic which has a huge fan base in Boston and he was scouted by one of Theo’s guys when he was 14. Soto is a Dominican Republic native and got an offer of $700 Million which seemed to be an intention low-ball but a magnanimous gesture on the part of the Red Sox. Now Vlad Jr., another Dominican Republic native, is an uncertainty for signing in Toronto.
The Boston brain trust does so many really ridiculous things that my latest fear is that Boston will trade Casas, Duran and Campbell to Toronto for Vlad Jr. and then sign him to a 10-year $500 Million contract or even a 12 year $600 Million contract. The $50Million AAV would keep the payroll under the Cap and Boston would have the right-handed power bat they need and their two star players would be Dominican. Anthony gets promoted to play RF, Abreu moves to LF and Rafaela plays CF.. Yoshida is the DH with Story at SS and Grissom at 2B. Then they sign Buehler and everyone is happy.
Now is this realistic? Absolutely not. Is it a smart business move? Absolutely not. Is it consistent with the bizarre moves these owners have made in recent years? ABSOLUTELY!!! It wouldn’t be smart, it would probably keep Cora here even longer and both wide bodied players will probably only be good to 32 years old but seeing them back to back would bring back memories of Papi and Manny.
Just a fun thought. Not going to happen but if it does, you heard it here first !!! hahaha
That’s way too high for one season. He’s not worth more than Tucker and Campbell might end up better than Vlad at the end of the day
I would rather have prime Guerrero sr instead of prime jr
That’s funny because Vlad Jr. hasn’t even reached his prime yet. Gotta love the crystal ball commenters
He kind of has when he almost won the triple crown in 2021
Could he get to that point again? Probably but I don’t see him ever getting that same home run power after losing weight
Sr is a hall of famer who was one of the greatest ever in his prime… so, duh. Even if Jr becomes the most perfect version of himself, he’s never going to steal 40 bases or nail a runner at the plate with a 350 foot throw or hit pitches that bounce.
No one player is truly worth this crazy contract. I hope these teams choke on these contracts.
Toronto will go to 10/$450m but he will walk thinking he can get 12 -15 years.
He gone.
Yea, the MVP had to go to Ohtani. He batted .257 and struck out 189 times and clogged up the DH so that the injury-prone, future HOF player couldnt ever have a day to DH. And when he pitched the whole rotation had to be adjusted to cater to him. But he hit a bunch of HRs and struck out a bunch of Mariners and A’s. Give him the MVP
I wasn’t a fan of the Soto deal and Guerrero Jr. is an equally subpar defender at an even more stationary position. He’s also a far worse baserunner.
He must be in a competition with Alonso to see who can most egregiously overestimate their market because even $340 million is a waste of money for a player with his limited skillset and track record.
Ok, we all knew… everyone posting on here and reading this… we all knew Soto was going to get a contract that would obliterate every other contract.
What have the Jays front office been doing all this time? Didnt they realize they had someone roughly the same age with roughly the same skill-set on their team? And Vlad was putting up his stats on a pathetic offense while Soto got to bat in front of Judge. Shouldn’t they have gotten in front of this and signed Vlad months and months ago if they wanted to keep him? I’m sure he would have jumped at, idk… 13/400. But now Vlad probably thinks he’s worth at least 2/3rds of what Soto got, so there’s $500M+ right there. *smh*
This guy wants 700 Million ! HA !
The cat and mouse game begins.
Hes gonna get 12/500+ on the open market based on age and talent as a hitter
No Way
He’ll get 11/440. But if jays offered him that today, he may not take it
From who?
If the Mets want him sure, but if not Junior has no landing spot for that kind of money.
Funny all the hate for Vlad Jr.
Would I pay him more than a $35M AAV over 10 years, no. That said, the guy’s worst MLB season produced 26 HR’s and 94 RBI’s with an above average BAA, SLG and OPS. The posts there that suggest the Jays pay him in Cheesesteaks or he’s a Nepo baby are a little silly.
Anyone who has followed this kids career closely knows he is not the real deal. While he has been blessed with genes from his HOF dad and been exposed to the very best of coaching and training opportunities that money could buy for his entire life , he remains a one dimensional man-child.
He has not shown any amount of maturity , on or off the ballfield , nor has he shown any real commitment to get himself in decent physical condition throughout his career thus far, why would this change if he is paid 5 or 600 million? He plays the least demanding defensive position in baseball because he can play no other.
Vladdy jr needs to get a grip on reality
3 for 22 in the post season…just saying, with 3 ALWC loses, TBR going 0-8 games, If he ain’t one of the ingredients of the secret sauce after 6 seasons of 5th, 4th, 3rd, 2nd place…What the AL East is going to get weaker? There’s going to be a trade-deadline, post-season starved team that’s going to give up some young pitching. They’ll be drunk with his amazing stat’s and will give up a couple of studs. Send him packing.
Toronto has no shot. Communist government and insane taxes
Please explain about the taxes….and “Communist”?…
Another Fox story?….Trolls have to put up the backup data,
Canada is slowly turning commy. Censoring speech, internet, and catering to a certain demographic to try and eliminate the middle class has been happening for a while unfortunately. Definitely need a politic shift.
“In a Communist system, individual people do not own land, factories, or machinery. Instead, the government or the whole community owns these things. Everyone is supposed to share the wealth that they create.”
Based on this Google search for communist government no Canada is not turning communist. They have allowed certain factions of people tons of leeway in their free speech until it appears as a nuisance on the rest of the country and then shut it down. If your in that faction then you will probably feel belittled and want to lash out in any way that you can. It’s important to feel heard in society but be respectful when doing so.
They made a law back in 2018 that if you misgender somebody it’s considered assault. Which not only effects free speech, but it caters to a fraction of the population less than 1%. That means that a person that identifies as trans has more individual rights then most of people in the country. That means controlling speech, you can legit misgender somebody by accident and be charged with assault. I have a few friends that are cops that have already had to deal with the scenario. And according to the this law anybody who can do that. They have censored other news outlets on our internet searches and social media platforms. This is always how it starts, the only fortunate part is that people are starting to slowly realize what is going on
You just know the Big Clown shapiro and his lackie will screw this up royally.
ZERO confidence with the Cleveland Clowns….
Plus Vladdy is lazy and not worth it !!
The people who read fangraphs are the ones who don’t understand value. They say, how does a 17 war player get 500 mil guarantee ?? He’s not worth it ! Then there’s 5 teams willing to pay it….so yeah, he’s worth it or there wouldn’t be the suitors
They are also a stubborn lot lol
He’s a Prince Fielder waiting to happen, he’s his dad if he’s lucky- which means he’s only a fair bet through his age 33 or maybe age 34 season, which would make it an 8 year extension- they almost certainly offered him 8 years/$340M or a $42.5M AAV. It’s an extremely fair deal and a smart, realistic length deal for the Jays.
Vlad, Jr. wants to reach or eclipse a total dollar record, which would require 10-15 years, but he will absolutely not be worth it after about age 34 or 35, might even be forced to retire by that age after 1 or 2 pointlessly unproductive, ugly seasons, meaning 6 or 7 years would be the most logical length in reality.
If Toronto really wants to keep him, they may have to bite the bullet and accept that they will have to overpay in years, knowing the last 2-5 years are an absolute waste of resources, and offer him 10 years/$425M to 12 years/$510M just to get him to sign, understanding they may be fighting with an insurance company about a medically retired or DFA’d player with 2-4 years and $85M to $170M left in guaranteed money.
I think that $340 m is a respectful offer for Vladdy. I like Vladdy but I wouldn’t sign him for more. You don’t want your team to be tied to a potential anchor. Although Vladdy is at a good weight right now, he has been at a weight that was detrimental to his production and did little to change it. I’m not convinced that he won’t return to that weight later in life. Boy has a good appetite. Maybe go 360m or 380m but wish him well when he turns it down because another team will give him more I’m sure. 38m per year is a lot for 1b right now but won’t be in 5 years let alone 7 or 8.
A man who works his arse off, becomes successful
His son, SO MUCH AS SMILES = “He’s so arrogant”‘ “He’s so full of himself” gets doped up, viciously assualted in the bathroom in 8th fn grade, gets followed around and ruined.
That’s what happens when your father works very, very hard to provide for his family.
This is an asinine comment and just not true. Jose Berrios, George Springer, Kevin Gausman, Ryu all got nice contracts and loved Toronto
I was actually surprised to see what a good year he had in 2024 having cut way down on watching Jays games now that they suck. That said, his otherworldly 2021 season stands out as an outlier and bodies like his don’t typically age well (see Prince Fielder) so I think that Devers is the appropriate comp and that Toronto’s ownership would be wise to cap their bid around 8/400 and resist the temptation of being talked into an overpay by a desperate, lame-duck team president and GM. Let someone else have his age 34-38 seasons and watch them sweat bullets trying to unload that albatross of a contract.
I completely agree with this analysis.
The way I see it, if one was to boil the issue down to its pure essence, is that Vlad, Jr. has a total dollar amount in mind, that does not comport with the sensible number of years to commit to him, but if Toronto- or whomever would sign him long term through his free agency years- would be willing to offer an incredibly high AAV in order to get within range of the top dollar goal of Vlad, Jr., he’d probably be willing to sign a shorter overall deal and he’d likely basically live up to that contract.
He might be slightly less valuable than Soto, but if you reasonably assume Soto’s body and productivity levels will hold up an extra 5-9 years more than Vlad, Jr. and that even a diminished, aging Soto will still be relatively productive and manage to at least stay on the field, then Vlad, Jr. deserves an equal AAV to Soto with far fewer years committed- hence 8 years/$400M would be more than appropriate and fair- and even that deal feels like it’d run the risk of having 1-3 ‘extra’ years on it as Vlad Jr.’s body more than likely falters on him, to say nothing of him potentially being medically retired ala Prince Fielder or DFA’d / outright released by a team with multiple years and BIG dollars left on the guaranteed contract.
The fact that everybody expects this to be Vlad, Jr.’s fate speaks volumes, but the AAV he’d require to reach his total salary goal without getting those extra ‘ghost years’ would be astronomical, almost on the level of Ohtani, minus the massive deferrals- which Vlad, Jr. ain’t gonna accept a drop of deferrals, he’ll want the full monty every single season.
At 8/400 you’re needing about 6 WAR per season to break even so it’s probably still a bit of an overpay but everyone is overpaying nowadays and you want to give yourself half a chance to get the guy. Anything more than that in dollars or years would be a mistake in my opinion.
The way I see it, in a standard negotiation, if your goal is $100k a year, you ask for $110k, expect their initial offer to be $90k and then you meet in the middle at your actual goal of $100k and if you get $101k you overachieved.
That’s all this is, just with much, much larger numbers.
If they offered $340M right now, this early, this was not their best and final offer, but it was low enough that Toronto is hoping he will sign for something larger than that, but still well below whatever the red line is for their comfort zone.
Vlad, Jr. will ask for 14 years/$602M, Toronto comes back with 8 years/$340M, Vlad, Jr. says he’d be open to 12 years/$540M, Toronto increases their offer to 9 years/$369M, they settle at 10 years/$455M, $55M of which is an upfront signing bonus.
Perception being that Vlad got an extra 2 years and $115M, Toronto saved themselves 4 years and an extra $147M.
If both sides were being reasonable, that’d be the process and the outcome.
But I think Vlad, Jr. is legitimately delusional about how long he will remain healthy and productive and he seems adamant to want to break an AAV record.
These numbers are making my heart hurt. Love Vladdy but he is not worth that in my opinion. He is not on Soto’s level for offence. He has come close on occasion but has not been as consistent. Soto is not worth his contract. Vladdy is definitely not worth those prices. Yikes I’m too old for this!
Jays need new front office leadership. Zero sense of timing. Zero sense for priorities.
If Vlad is turning down $340 million dollars then he has no grasp on reality. He is inconsistent and doesn’t play a premium position. He should have accepted that deal fast than he scarfs down a cheeseburger.
We don’t know how many years that was across, but yes if it was for 8 years that’s extremely fair and breaks some AAV records and if it was for 10 years, I can understand Vlad, Jr. not wanting to settle for a $34M AAV in this market, but I highly doubt he’d suddenly sign on the dotted line for “just” an extra $25M or something, haha.
I’m curious about how Guerrero does on the open market. First basemen simply haven’t reached the payroll heights of other positions on the diamond. Right now, the top paid 1B is Harper at $27.5 million. He didn’t start that contract at 1B so if that matters than it’s Freddie Freeman at $27 million.
With a $340 million contract it’s easy to assume Guerrero would handily break the record for largest AAV but I suppose it’s not impossible that the Blue Jays might have gone as long as 15 years, taking the contract down to less than $23 million a year.
The contract Soto signed has created chaos in the market. I don’t know how many fans thought signing Soto to that contract was wise. The Mets pretty much have baseballs best hitting DH who has negative value on the bases being paid like he’s the best player in the game.
Soto is young and I would say has the most productive bat of all hitters not named Aaron Judge but his flaws make it really difficult to get behind that contract. It’s obvious prices have gone up but to that extent? We’ll have to see if Soto’s contract becomes normalized by others reaching or coming close to it that previously wouldn’t have or if Soto’s contract is an aberration..at least for a while longer.
Yes, to all of this.
Soto is not the best player in the game, but he is the most cromulent. He kinda reminds me of Prime Cal Ripken, Jr.: The. most prototypical ideal general productive offensive player with 30-40 HR power, will hit for around .300 or better and provide 5+ WAR per season- he won’t break any annual records, but he will remain consistent for many many seasons- and that presumable reliability is the true surplus value- not the raw annual stats themselves.
Also this game is largely about perceived value, not true value- it’s why some insanely productive players who consistently hit 35-45 HR’s and have no negative value in any category of a stat line might consistently have to settle for 1-2 year deals at $10-$16M per season or something, while other players who are wildly unpredictable with extremely up and down season over season performances and underwhelming total WAR numbers (i.e. Bryce Harper) will get record breaking deals.
Also, since you mentioned Harper- it’s well known that he was actually offered more like 10 years/$330M but stretched it out to keep the AAV down in order to give the Phillies more payroll flexibility and so that his salaries wouldn’t be an albatross as he aged and a lot of it was front loaded so that his final few years he’s only making $22M a season, which, by that point will be how we viewed $11M per season salaries around the time Harper signed his Phillies contract- Bryce Harper’s total dollar value and deal structure is rather brilliant, selfless and the way things should go in baseball…
Vlad, Jr. is not that kind of a *relatively* selfless player. He wants to not only break total dollar amount records, but AAV records as well. The dude has a massive ego that will dictate his demands.
I honestly don’t think Vlad, Jr. would care if he wound up on a perennially last place team, so long as his contract broke various records of upfront signing bonus, AAV, length, etc. etc.
I wouldn’t put it past him to try and sign with the Miami Marlins or the Texas Rangers or the Seattle Mariners just because of the no state income tax thing and I wouldn’t be shocked if he convinced a non-contending club to give him a record breaking AAV just so he could know he received that deal.
Vlad, Jr. signs with the Seattle Mariners for 10 years/$650M : he will never be relevant and his body will give out on him in year 7, but he’ll get his money and that’s all he cares about.
And that’s his prerogative.
As a very quick aside/addendum, I was reading the live Q&A from earlier and was reminded in there that Bryce Harper apparently regrets his Phillies deal and has been trying to get them to add AAV dollars to his currently guaranteed years, or add years to his deal, because he’s looking at the current slate of mega contracts and now feels that he severely under valued himself.
I am guessing in hindsight, he wishes he had pushed for 15 years/$600M or something like that and not so heavily front loaded- but at the time it was the largest total guarantee in the history of the game, which is what creates the precedent for future free agents to top those older deals in total dollars, AAV and current vs future value– *and* Harper *personally* offered the extra 3 years and front loaded structure in order to give the Phillies plenty of wiggle room on their roster budget- apparently it feels stupid in the end to be a little bit selfless in this apparently zero sum game of contract AAV’s, length, guarantees and structures.
Most of the largest contracts go down as the worst contracts- very few play out in such a way that it was not only a fair annual pay, but a fair length and overall return on investment.
I won’t get into it right here and now, but I am pretty sure if we tried to very specifically define such mega contracts and make a list of the ones that were of equal or surplus value vs the ones that were essentially a disaster, the list of disaster deals would be a few multiples in length compared to the list of mega deals that completely worked out as hoped by both player and club.
Just as quick example:
One of the best deals of all time? Manny Ramirez’s 8 years/$160M Red Sox contract.
One of the worst deals of all time, possibly the worst deal of all time? Anthony Rendon 7 years/$245M Angels contract.
One can go on from here.
Absolutely. Really, I thought MLB was going to fight a lot harder to keep the market where it was or at least in part. I thought pitchers, for example, would continue getting smaller contracts because of the massive risk pitching is. Then Max Fried went for 8 years, $218 million. Whoops. Guess that prediction was wrong.
I’m even a Max Fried fan and I knew it would be a bad idea for the Braves to give that contract to him. Now that really sets the bar for teams looking to sign Corbin Burnes.
Can’t agree enough with how bad these large contracts tend to go. Another good example is Boegarts. I think Rendon is really the best example though. Nothing like combining frequent injuries with a terrible attitude.
I’m pretty sure you and I don’t have to defend to hard how bad mega contracts typically are. Its just about as much of a brute fact as water being wet.
Good read. I enjoyed your thoughts.
Consistent starters seem to be the value play here in free agency. If you can sign Corbin Burnes and Max Fried for the total price of Vladdy.
Ladies and gents, your big deadline trade is here. No way an extension happens.
Shatkins are not successful at drafting players. They seem to have a difficult time attracting free agents. Most players that get traded to Toronto take the first train out of town when they can. There seems to be some discontent by the players on how the data was driving the decisions in the only post season games they most recently played.
They need to resign Vladdie if only to rebuild the credibility of the front office. Vladdie has good credibility amongst the players and can help attract free agents.
Are the Cleveland duo / mlb purposely killing the only Canadian based team?
How can people with as much experience as they have, and with an owner with deep pockets be this bad?
This front office needs to be replaced.
bestone-
What do you think the true issue is with Toronto? As I understand it, its got something to do with the taxes in Canada or something like that?
They seem to make competitive offers to free agents and pending free agents on their team, but very few accept or the ones who do accept, tend to know they’re getting overpaid to play for the Blue Jays.
So… is it the Canadian taxes? What is it?
In 2018, Trump and Trudeau modified the treaties between the countries, creating the USMCA treaty. It states that ANYONE can be a resident of Canada for up to 183 days and NOT PAY TAXES. Baseball players are seasonal, often representing a team for six months or LESS time than the 183 days, so when fans talk about taxes, they aren’t aware of reality. If the players remain in Toronto past the 183 days, then they are taxed accordingly with both Federal and provincial taxes. I don’t know of ANY player that makes Toronto their home all year. The problem with Toronto lies in the fact they have incompetent fools as GM and team president. The team had NO problems when Gillick, Beeston, or other men represented the team and were respected by everyone. Atkins has dug himself a hole and when sinking, he should stop digging and hand the reigns over to someone else that can take the team into the future. Guerrero should be traded since his greed and expectations would handicap the team from moving forward. The Jays aren’t spending a billion dollars a year on payroll, regardless what fans expect. Vlad making 50M a season means the other 25 players have to split 200m or 4M per player to satisfy one player. Even Ohtani put the Dodgers first so they could build a team around him. Paying Guerrero what he demands destroys the team around him, so he is basically playing with rookies every year.
I disagree with your conclusion, see my post, but on taxes, I agree. Remember, players are only considered working in Canada for the home games because all road games are in US. So for only half the season are they even partly eligible to pay taxes in Canada. Thus tax differentials shouldn’t be an issue for Vlad, who lives in Dominican Republic in off-season (smart for a host of reasons).
The front office problem is that they have glued themselves into salaries they can’t afford MLB tax-wise. But their player dumps in the summer kept them out of tax purgatory so they have more to spend. Now is the time to sew up Vlad, trade Bo for high prospects, and sign a couple or more solid free agents. Maybe Vlad has already signed and they’re waiting to announce on Christmas Day? A guy can still dream, right?
…trillionaireteamoperator….
If you, and a host of others think it’s taxes….then probably some players believe that too. Remember, there are many people out there that thought their “grocery” bills, specifically eggs would be cheaper than last month.
It’s amazing what a little education from valid unbiased sources can do….please read ashleyr’s response on taxes…
That’s why I was asking, but I did realize that baseball players are taxed based on where individual games are played, totaling their year end tax burden across every city / county/ state they played in for however many games and its not like Canada has exorbitant taxes and apparently Vlad, Jr. lives in the DR for some financial reasons, amongst others, so its not really an ‘after taxes’ issue.
I do think he wants to match or break some of these ‘all time’ records- highest AAV and closest to or longest contract ever for a position player, etc and he may not be able to get that from Toronto.
Heck- maybe he’s banking on Steve Cohen, which is why Cohen hasn’t figured out a deal with Pete Alonso or done anything else significant regarding first base- plus, the NL does have the DH now anyway, if that’s a factor in Vlad, Jr.’s future, to become a kind of David Ortiz type.
December 23rd. Happy Festivus !!
The Lousy GM shapiro and his lackie do anything today ??
“no executives in baseball are on as much of a hot seat as Atkins and team president Mark Shapiro”
The real question is: why do they still have a seat?
As for Vlad, he won’t accept anything below $460 (if you compare fWAR and Soto’s contract). I’m not 100% sure that the market will accept this high valuation if he goes on free agency.
Met’s won’t be a player.
The past is prologue and you pay for the future. But when the Jays ownership, Rogers, also owns a national sports network (multiple cable/satellite Sportsnet TV and terrestrial TV channels and Radio),plus the local NHL, NBA, football (CFL), and professional soccer franchises the impact of one being an also-ran or a happening team can affect the support of the others,
The Blue Jays success affects TV and cable/satellite subscriptions nationwide (Rogers is Canada’s leading owner in both areas) and thus signing an icon (Ohtani, Soto and Guerrero) can be justified on multiple levels.
Vlad is likely getting good advice from his father and his agent. His radio comments tell us negotiations are active. His haircut and subsequent success at the plate last year tells us he’s serious (that was early years big knock).
So I believe he’s worth as much to the Jays in the future as Soto would have been, plus more. IF they can sign him up now they must. They have the money and the need. But what should he get? I believe they should consider matching what Soto got plus some incentives to put his contact value higher. Add in a bigger bonus than the Mets paid Soto and he’s signed sealed and delivered. Include a buy-out of the 2025 contract year, and you have a happy player. But, more like the Ohtani deal, include a massive deferral so you can add pitching and another bat.
His incentive to sign is simple, money now and money later. No worries about injury destroying his value, and a Canadian player (born in Montreal) can finish his career in his Canadian home away from home.
Wait until season’s end and you’ll be bidding against the usual suspects. Or be out of the running. Go big or go home. Make it 15 years. And worth $1 Billion if all incentives reached.
All salaries are paid in US dollars and the Canadian dollar is sinking now, so the Jays have added incentive to get this done ASAP. Their income is in Canadian dollars.
Do it and a Winter FanFest could re-kindle the support you need/want. Don’t and not only will front office be job-seeking, but the team will be on the rocks for a few years and that will affect every other Rogers sports and sports delivery property.
A Springer trade could still be costly if they have to retain salary. So bundle him and make one of the 7 or 8 players deals. But easier said than done.
Springer could have a career year, too. So wait and see what he’s worth at trade deadline instead.
But keep reliable Gausman and maybe even extend his contract.
10 years 440 million w some team options for 50 million per based on at bats
IF HE thinks he’s getting 550 million guaranteed…… he’s out of his rabbit ass mind
wonder if the league will justify 1B getting 500M. If it happens the AAV ain’t near 50M. He’s not a walk machine so without this crutch, he’ll need to hit. It’s probably more imaginiable to assume 480M at 13 years MAX because Mets won’t be in play for his service. Yankees will probably be a key player. Anyone know which NL team is positioned for 1B mega deal?
One of y’all mentioned that Vlad, Jr. got a haircut and talks magnanimously about teams and his future contract on the radio on a regular basis. I find that interesting.
I do think he was exceptionally immature his first few seasons, but it seems like the reality of the wide range of outcomes from his free agency has him focused on eliminating as many question marks from his profile as possible before the race to sign him really kicks into gear- getting his haircut, presumably getting into better shape to show he’s more durable as an athlete and not pure power because of his heft…. Look if the guy loses like 25 pounds of fat, keeps his hair a little cleaner cut and shows his personality to have humbled and become more professional in nature and he manages to figure out how to stay healthy and productive longer term- nothing wrong with that.
I’m not against a player with question marks proving us wrong.
good points but are you willing to bet 600 + million on him proving you wrong? What incentive will he have once he gets a long term contract? The bluejays are just desperate enough to sign him though. No one else is interested in playing there and Jr will 100% take the offer of the most cash
Um! No, the odds are much more like 100 or 1000 to 1 that Torkelson will be better. Tork doesn’t have the plate discipline that Vladdy does.
I find it hilarious that probably 65% of the posters on here calling Vlad fat are in alot worse shape than him. He is currently 6’2 245lbs, I doubt his body type allows him to get much smaller. That said not a single one of you have a crystal ball in saying he will be 300lbs in a couple yrs. He’s worked very hard to get in better shape give him credit for doing that. Not one single person has ever said that Vlad isn’t one of the hardest working players on the Jay’s.
Even if it is muscle, which it isn’t, still too much, and his power doesn’t even come from his weight. He’s at his best when he takes his weight seriously, so fans expect him to stay leaner. Doing otherwise provides plenty of justification to say he’s not serious enough. May be he’s just a young guy, but figuring it our now is better than arrogance.
@ Dragon.
please name the source of the quotes saying Jr is hard working. I have never heard or read anyone calling this guy hard working. The opposite maybe
Big contracts can serve more than one purpose. Yes, they keep a player, and keep him happy. But they also have a message for fans, or wannabe fans, young and old, and also to advertisers, consumers of radio and TV fare, to yackers on talk radio, to other players on the team and off, and to team staff, in the front office and down the line. Don’t over-spend on pale talents, though.
Also sends a message to free agents about how serious teams are about winning.
he just doesn’t have the work ethic like other stars. And he makes boneheaded base running choices getting picked off or trying to stretch base hits. He gets that payday he better lose weight and stop admiring his home runs or does he slack off? He’ll always be a Vladdy never a Vlad if that makes sense. He’s a star, no doubt about it, but he’s not really growing. I think a new environment may help him grow up.
Also when it’s a close play at a base he wants a replay and either every replay shows him being wrong or the coaches just deny his request. It’s kind of embarrassing.
I wonder if the way he was treated during arbitration a while ago has soured his relationship with the FO. I would say trade him now while we still can and get the most value and players to fill up our holes. Everything is backlogged until his status is finailzed
Trade him. Get good return. Sign Teo and Santander to multi years for less than 200M combined. Pivot to Bo with Vlad out of way.
If he’s not departing he’s a starting
Trade him
Or play him
And then he’s a gonna eat
I do think if Vlad, Jr. and the Blue Jays can’t come to an extension agreement, he will be traded ASAP for as big a haul as possible- likely prospects and young, much cheaper major league or major league ready talent- and he will have a year like CC Sabathia did on the Brewers, or like Soto just did on the Yankees….
I do think Vlad, Jr. winds up on the Mets for like 14 years/$605.5M in the end, if Cohen is just trying to outbid everybody on everything and ‘buy’ a championship- which, nothing wrong with that.
My question all along has been, if they have the money to go after ohtani and Soto, why haven’t they extended Guerrero? Ohtani and Soto probably wondered the same thing. No Guerrero or Bichette extensions make you wonder how serious they are about winning.
they are not throwing the bank at them because they know vlad and bo better than anyone. Toronto fans are tired of them two dancing babies
not only is Vlad Jr not worth premium money as a player he really seems to be a big time jerk, and not the intelligent type of jerk either. Just a silver spoon fed prima donna. Case in point this new “deadline”.
He acts very immature on and off the field and has seemingly not matured at all. He has a tendency to run his mouth which often reflects poorly on his team or teammates and I have never heard or read one comment complimenting him as a teammate from any player , manager or coach . Not saying he is a cancer but I believe he certainly not the cure!
Even if Gausman pitches to a 4 era he is still valuable as an innings eater. Yusei Kikuchi just signed for 3 years @ 21m per yr , same salary as Gaus and I’d much rather have Gaus’s consistency. Severino at 22.5m per or Manaea at 25m per. Yikes! that is a lot of scratch.
this is a joke. Vlad is in no way comparable to Soto who is in no way comparable to Ohtani. trade him for the best deal – he’s due for a replacement level season in 25.
I set Jan 30th as deadline for getting pony or I start stomping feet impatiently