2:24PM: In a follow-up message from Olney on X, he hears from rival executives that the Cardinals will probably have to cover some of Arenado’s salary or take back another unfavorable contract as a salary offset. As a hypothetical, Olney suggests that if the Dodgers wanted Arenado, Chris Taylor and the $17MM remaining on his contract could be offered back to St. Louis to help cover the financial difference. It isn’t known whether or not the Cardinals would be open to eating money or taking an unwanted contract back, which could be a further obstacle towards a trade being completed.
2:04PM: Recent comments from president of baseball operations John Mozeliak indicate that the Cardinals may not be entirely viewing 2025 as a rebuild year, though the team has already made some moves with an eye towards reducing payroll. Trading Nolan Arenado would certainly be just about the biggest move St. Louis could make in that effort to get younger and less expensive, though beyond just the $74MM in owed salary, moving Arenado is difficult due to his no-trade clause.
To that end, ESPN’s Buster Olney (X link) writes that Arenado has “a very limited list of…preferred teams” for potential trades. This in turn has left the Cardinals without a ton of leverage in finding an ideal trade fit that would help the Cards recoup something beyond just salary relief for the All-Star third baseman.
Previous reports in regards to Arenado this offseason indicated that he hasn’t directly asked for a trade, but he would be willing to move to first base if such a defensive switch is a better fit for a new team. These two items represent the complicated nature of these trade talks, as Arenado is seemingly ready to be very flexible and accommodating of a trade, but only to a few clubs. It isn’t known exactly how many teams Arenado is willing to waive his no-trade protection to join, or how many of those teams have their own interest in Arenado as a trade candidate.
It is possible that the Arenado situation might have informed Mozeliak’s comments about the organization having “every intention of fielding a good baseball team” in 2025. Willson Contreras has already let the Cards know he isn’t waiving his no-trade protection, and so St. Louis still wanted more time for Ivan Herrera and Pedro Pages at catcher, the pivot move was installing Contreras as the team’s new regular first baseman. Sonny Gray also has a no-trade clause that he reportedly isn’t keen on waiving, complicating the Cardinals’ efforts to move on from the last two years of Gray’s contract.
If trading Arenado is also going to be unfeasible due to a narrow market, the Cardinals might’ve decided against entirely punting on the 2025 season. Pending free agent Ryan Helsley now seems to be a less-likely trade candidate, further indicating that St. Louis might attempt to rebuild on the fly while still competing in the NL Central. Of course, Mozeliak’s stance on Helsley could also be gamesmanship to drive up offers, and it’s still early enough in the offseason that the Cards might again change lanes depending on how the trade and free agent markets develop in the next few months.
For instance, the third base market will be altered once Alex Bregman and (in the event of a position change) Willy Adames sign their next contracts. The Phillies are also known to be shopping Alec Bohm, giving third-base needy teams another option. None of this might really change things if Arenado simply isn’t willing to expand his list beyond that “very limited” number, but a new team suddenly having a need at third base could perhaps convince Arenado otherwise.
Can’t convince me that Nolan is due for a big regression. He’s not Josh Donaldson but it feels like it might be a similar situation as when the Yankees traded him.
He’s already regressed due to not playing in Coors. Dude is a pro and potential HOF. He’s going to be solid over the rest of his contract
Cardinals need to pay down that contract to acquire top minor league talent. Pay down 20 mil and dude is a bargain !
If you mean by saying he’s going to be solid that he’ll continue to see his power numbers regress than most of us would agree….the last two years pretty much are telling us that…..and normally, as Yankee fans saw with J Donaldson and Rizzo, (albeit his concussions may have impacted this too) defensive skills tend to decline at a faster rate.
YOu’re right when you say the Cards are going to have to pay a trading partner big time to take on his remaining contract….
Donaldson was a better fielder than he was a hitter. He could no longer catch up with a high fastball and the league knew it. I’m afraid that Arenado is headed for the same fate.
I would still take him in a flash in Boston if as part of the trade, Yoshida went to St. Louis. Not sure about other parts to a deal but that frees Raffy to move to DH, not first and solidified the infield defense.
I can’t imagine the Cardinals would want anything to do with Yoshida’s contract. It’s much worse than Arenado’s.
I indicated as part of the trade. If they don’t take a bad contract back, they are likely paying down the contract to get mid tier prospects back. Yoshida has three years left and while it’s under water, he is a professional lefty bat. For teams who have a DH slot, he’s a good pick up.
Fair, but I’d take Arenado’s contract over Yoshida’s, so Boston would need to include $$ or prospects.
The Cardinals have nowhere to play Yoshida, they have a plethora of DH, no defense guys they need to find at bats for.
Tigers on line two. Casey Mize for Arendo, if the Cards eat half the cream off dat scribble sheet (contract).
Rothbard, Mize hasn’t demonstrated a skill level that would appeal to the Cardinals, especially if they’re paying half of Arenado’s contract.
Big whiffa,
Arenado has started regressing because of age, not because he left Coors. Going from a great hitter’s park to a solid pitcher’s park caused his surface numbers to decline, but his first two seasons in St. Louis we’re on par with his years in Colorado. Getting into his 30s is slowing him down, as often happens to players.
Father Time is undefeated
I think you mean always happens to players!
Maybe. Joey Votto bounced back after a couple simi down seasons in his mid 30s to hit a career record in homers in his late 30s. Motivation and luck factor in all this too. I’d rather have him for 3 seasons at 20 mil per and give up a quality prospect than the money and contract giants just gave wily and I’m a fan of his
I meant some players start slowing down early in their 30s. Some hold onto their performance a few years longer.
As a whole, players in outside of the heart of the steroid era in the 1190-early 2000s start to decline in their age 31 season. The decline on average is steady at about 7% through age 35. From 36-40 its much steeper.
Of course there are players that buck that average by having an outstanding season after that, but their trend lines are still similar.
Arenado had a career year at age 31 putting up a 7.7 WAR that led MLB. Then we saw a steep decline to 2.4 and 2.5 WAR the following 2 seasons. He is bucking the trend the opposite way by starting a steep decline with his age 32 season.
He needs to sell out for pull side power and come grips with a .220 average. That’s the only way his bat can provide any value.
John Mozeliak—- if he reacts true to form as he has over the past 8 years —- is dumb enough to obligate the Cardinals Owners to eat Millions of dollars off their current Cardinals players contracts, such as Arenado, Matz, Mikolas, Gray etc., just to move them out of his sight.
Those are the type of moves Mozeliak has made in the recent past which has gotten the Cardinals Organization in the awful shape they are currently in!!!!!
The one trade the Cardinals could make in that scenario is trading Contreras and eating part of his salary. They have Burleson for First and Herrera and Pages at catcher and DH.
It’s obvious Mozeliak and Marmol have never wanted Contreras since they got him!!
It seems so Mozeliak stupid to Eat money in a trade to another club for marginal prospect players, when a team is starting a rebuild!!!
Negative benefits any way you look at it.
The piece itself is in error. It’s only $64M, not $74, as the Rockies are still paying $5M each of the next two years.
His bat has taken a step back every year he’s been in St Louis. At this point he is an average to slightly below average 3B with the bat. With the glove he’s still pretty slick to where I think any team would be happy to have him at 3B.
As a M’s fan I would love to have him at the hot corner but STL will need to eat the money because it’s a bad contract for a faded bat.
vibes,
He bucked that trend his second year in St. Louis when he finished 3rd in MVP voting, but he’s certainly on the decline.
I think his regression (and others) is more indicative of the coaching staff than the players talent. I look at the number of players they have had over the last 5+ years that killed it for them in the minors only to falter at the big league level. In most cases it was major league coaching trying to change aspects of their game. There is a decent number of these players out there who were subsequently traded to other teams to only rise to their potential (Arozerena, Garcia, Etc.). Not saying it is all the major league coaching staff, but i think it is a factor.
Everyone has gone backwards except Burleson. And he was a slow starter and the one everyone wanted to jettison when Nootbaar and Gorman were the shiny new toys.
Arenado has ALREADY had a significant regression offensively and defensively.
I see can’t believe people thought the cardinals fleeced the Rockies lol. Enjoy those last 3 years. Must be easy having opinions on stuff when you only consider the next year of the trade rather than the entire contract
Arenado will still out WAR( just next year alone)every player he was traded for combined. Yes he may be overpaid this year but his salary declines rapidly the last 2 years and colorado is still paying him also. Colorado has zero players left from that trade
They got rid of a majority of the salary that’s why the Rockies won the deal, then, now and in the future. The fact they got some prospects for him as well was just icing on the cake. Even if they didn’t turn out.
He’s been regressing for 2 years. Great player but he isn’t getting any better.
Makes sense for Cardinals to just bring bs k same team so they can finish last and get a high draft pick.
Running it back with the same team that just finished nowhere close to last place makes you think they’d finish last? Not sure I see the logic.
They can be competitive next year with the young guys. If Arenado was hurt last year, and his limited shoulder motion all year, seems to indicate he was then we could see something of a bounce back this year. Burleson at 1B most of the time is a good replacement for Goldy and hopefully DHing will keep Contreras’ bat in the lineup for 600 PAs instead of 350. Herrera full time behind the plate is an improvement. Just a little bit of what should be expected growth from the young guys and this is a 90+ win team.
Also, draft position means little in baseball.
Is there any inkling as to where Arenado would want to go if traded?
I would love the Orioles to get him….but I might be the only one who wants him lol
Still though….I like him a lot and would love to see him in the Black and Orange
That young Orioles infield is so stacked that I feel like Nolan would be pushing back someone that could use the playing time.
See….I don’t think it is that stacked….2nd base is up for grabs
OR Westburg could move to second base…and Arenado to 3rd
Westburg at 3B and Holliday at 2B. They’re stacked.
Yea, with Holliday, Westburg, Mayo and Henderson there’s no room for Arenado unless you’re pushing one of them to the OF.
He’s always been very picky in that regard. Severely hampered the Rockies when they traded him, too. He (reportedly) only agreed to St Louis because Goldschmidt is one of his best friends. And now that Goldy is gone, well, you can see where this is going.
Seamaholic,
I wouldn’t say he hampered the Rockies so much as he exercised the rights of his no-trade clause to control where he went. Good for him.
Sure. The story was told by Denver media (grain of salt of course) that he demanded a trade and handed the Rockies a short list of teams he would play for (mostly CA and NY). None of those teams were interested, in fact nobody except the Cards and one “mystery team” (suspected: Braves) put in a bid. Arenado had gotten to know Goldschmidt over the years and they were close friends. Goldy convinced the Cards to sweeten the deal for Arenado by adding a year, and he finally agreed.
He is def friends with Goldy but Nolan lived with Matt Holliday when he first came up to Colorado and that’s why he wanted to go St. Louis. He would only go to St. L or LA. He is still a valuable player but just not a 3 or 4 hole hitter, not clutch at all. If Marmol would hit him 6/7 he would be much better off. Defense is worse but he is still way above average. He could easily bounce back next season so if we are stuck with him, it’s not so bad. He just needs to have better body language and stop sulking around half the time.
Trade Yoshida to get him and then Boston signs Goldie for one year. Such would allow Casas to be dealt for pitching and I. the short term, the team can compete again. Next year the team signs Vlad. Henry: I still don’t see you spending so after not getting Sosa, put your money where your stooges’ mouths are.
Exactly. The Cardinals got him this way. It doesn’t surprise me St. Louis has to go through the same limited choices.
Personally, I’ll be glad when he’s gone. Just pay $15-20 million and take the a mid-level prospect. “PLAYHARD9” is correct about the sulking. The Cardinals are better off without him. No matter the cost.
Has there ever been a player you don’t want Os to get ? Hmmm…
Not necessary the O’s but their fans…..they’ve got a very competitive team of young players with more awaiting in the minors and they still want to import old guys in the hope that they will take them to the promised land…..
He only likes them over 30
He is from LA and has been making posts on social media that have everyone thinking it is the Dodgers.
Too bad. He’d look good for a two or three year stint with the Tigers.
The Dodgers don’t have need of a 3B or a 1B though.
Not an older regressing one. Fills no need w/Dodgers, got other holes to fill. Re-sign Teo, Kike, Trienen, probably another good bullpen arm, n go get Roki. Do not let em get to Pads. San Diego was best team we saw last yr, don’t help em.
Dude… No. God, no. Westburg is solid at third and in the line up. He absolutely does not fit here. The only way him coming to Baltimore works is if we send Mountcastle (which doesn’t really work for St. Louis, imo) and a lower end prospect for Arenado to come play first AND we get Helsley (+)
The Orioles aren’t replacing Westburg with Arenado.
You’ve managed to pick one of the few teams that DOESN’T need a third baseman.
Arenado would just be blocking the younger players. There’s no reason for the Orioles to be interested in him.
As a fellow O’s fan I wouldn’t mind having him as a DH/ occasional 3b. He does lose value that way however as he’s still a good defender. We do need a right handed bat though and he likely wouldn’t cost a lot in terms of prospects. But we do still have a lot of youngsters that really need an actual opportunity like Mayo and kjerstad(health permitting). I can see it happening if we get creative but I doubt we try anything like that especially with the rotation questions.
A washed up average bat that would play well in Sacramento!
Rebuilding on the fly is what typically gets people fired
Could moz and marmol be gone by 2026!
Mozeliak is done after 2025 with Bloom taking over. That’s already been announced. it’s been in the works since he signed this last extension 3 years ago.
Absolutely
This is not a post saying that the Yankees have signed Juan Soto, I repeat, NOT a post saying the Yankees have signed Juan Soto.
So Hal, get back to work.
espn.com/mlb/news/story?id=1651003
Sosa passes on free agency. Obviously, the wrong Sosa.
No San Jose sharks or Anaheim ducks in baseball
He is not washed up. He just isn’t elite anymore with the glove and his bat is average.
I still think he is a good fit for the Dodgers. He doesn’t need to carry the team of even be a top of the order bat. He slots in at 6-7, plays good D, and seemingly wants to be there and have a chance to win.
For the right eating money from STL, and the Dodgers deep farm, it seems like a good match.
Of course there is Muncy that some would argue is a better current player than Arenado. I am not sure about that but I also don’t watch many Cards games. I do watch many Dodgers games and I am lukewarm on Max.
Let’s say muncy is on par with arenado (max is better in my opinion), the dodgers would probably rather have the left handed bat instead of the right handed bat
If Arenado goes to the Dodgers, he would likely have a nice bounce back season offensively. Left field is not that deep there and the ball carries better than Busch. Arenado when right is a dead pull hitter. He is a platinum glove winner and has not regressed that much on D. He would be better than any other 3B the Dodgers have had recently. Nolan is a supplemental player now, not a main bat anymore so perfect fit for LAD.
3-way proposal: Muncy to M’s, Arenado and Haniger’s contract to Dodgers, Evans and Castillo to St Louis. M’s sign Sasaki.
In your dreams
If he would go to Houston, take Pressly and/or Montero contracts in return. They are only one year each.. Astros can put him at 3rd if they lose Bregman, or at 1st if they resign him.
Cards have to be open to Caba and Bohm from Philly for Helsley and Arenado. Perfect fit for both teams.
Phillies are getting fleeced in your hypothetical. Top 3 org prospect + a younger controllable 3B for an overpaid older 3B and a rental reliever.
Only if the Cards throw in a bag of broken bats.
Arenado is an upside down contract = negative trade value plus one year of a very good back of the pen arm in Helsley. That package for Bohm – two years at a below market rate for a solid but not great 3B with some upside. One might argue that is plenty of return quite easily if the Cards don’t pay down a decent slice of the Arenado deal. Caba as the prospect is simply ridiculous…if anything add a low tier lottery ticket and call it a day.
Easiest way to look at it is this – one year of Helsley for two years of Bohm (relief arm vs. position player). As a Phils fan, I don’t think that a relief pitcher is enough of a return for two years of a solid position player…MLBTR thinks otherwise. So adding more negative value only makes the return worse when one considers payroll.
Terrible idea for the Cardinals. Bohm isn’t any better than Arenado and Helsley should be signed long term, not traded.
Contracts are traded not players. You’re right, Bohm isn’t currently any better than Arenado. But Bohm costs $8m and Arenado costs $27m next year. Which kind of makes a difference. Arenado costs “Christian Walker” more. Literally, as both teams would probably love a new 1B.
I’m not against this. We have a good 3B climbing rapidly in the minors and Arenados timing could work. The Phillies also have a solid Edmundo Sosa as a back up 3B and SS who did a phenomenal job replacing Turner when he was injured batting over 300 and keeping errors low. Turner is an error fest and left field has been a turnstile since the pulled Schwarber out for his knees. They need a more solid defense on the left side. He brings that. He also brings them a right hand bat. Arenado may hit better with a hitters lineup to protect him. He might see better pitches with any one of their left handers behind him. They contend. And they are looking for work ethic like his over the sometimes overly emotional Baum whirling his helmet at the batboy.
“Very limited market” = the Dodgers won’t meet our initial demands
Translation: The Yankees aren’t biting either.
Why do so many people call this an unfavorable contract? He’s owed 74 million over 3 years and the Rockies are paying 10m of it. If Arenado was a free agent right now you don’t think he could get 64 over 3? Maybe I’m delusional but it doesn’t seem like a crazy amount to me. And the upside potential is crazy if he can turn the bat around.
3/$64m is maybe close to where he is in AAV, but he wouldn’t get 3 years. He’s 34 next year and coming off two mediocre seasons in a row when he’s lost a lot of quickness both with bat and glove. He’s now a little above league average type player and may decline from there. Given that he was MVP level just a couple years ago, I’d say some one would throw 2/$40 or something at him, yeah. Cards wouldn’t have to cover half the money or anything. Maybe $5m per year. Make it 3/$48m with the final year very cheap, which I think gets a B level prospect return from the Mariners or Yankees or someone.
Because only about 10 teams can take it on right now in the current RSN fiasco environment.
That is, if they had a need and was willing. Sounds like only a couple are.
You are delusional. Hed get 2 years 30 mill max given his age and rate of deline.
His defense is still good. He had a bad season on a bad team. I think he is a smart pickup. His contract isn’t an albatross, especially with the Rockies chipping in.
I’m always surprised when these GMs realize that they’re upside down on a contract.
That contract is difficult to trade. I think the Cardinals were hoping someone would step up with the state of 3rd base right now. Maybe when guys like Bregman are off the market they might find someone to make a friendlier deal but I wouldn’t expect it.
Arenado plus cash to the Angels for Taylor Ward…. Angels need infield help and Ward can help the cards outfield.
Rendon for arennado lol
Mariners should trade Luis Castillo and Mitch Haniger for Arenado, and then turn around and sign Roki Sasaki
I like him to the mariners but don’t want to give up Castillo
I wouldn’t want to give up Castillo either, but you’d have to make the payroll work. Sasaki will cost much less than Castillo and you get rid of Hanigers contract to utilize to sign Hyeseong Kim
Arenado + 5M/y for Robles and Jonny Farmelo
Mariners
If he could stop swinging at stuff down and way outside, he could drastically improve his hitting.
While I’m not in the camp that thinks the Sox need to or should trade Masa Yoshida if ever there was an opportunity it’s probably right here.
Trading Yoshida for Arenado (if the Cardinals are amicable to such a trade) saves the Cardinals roughly $18 million and would allow the Sox to DH Devers and keep Casas at 1B, or add a 1B/DH bat if they trade Casas
Yoshida for Arenado, straight up, no retained salary in either direction or prospects attached? I’m 100% in. His bat may be declining but he can still play third base. It’s beyond clear that Devers cannot. Would be a perfect fix – get a capable defender at third, move Raffy to DH, and swaps a lefty for a righty in the lineup
Admittedly, I have not paid enough attention to the Cardinals in recent years to know if there’d be any reason that makes sense for them to do it. But I’d be happy to do it if they’d do it.
Arenado for Jordan Montgomery, who has one year left of his deal, would work for Arizona. Montgomery should be right next season with a spring training of work, then the Cards can deal him at the deadline.
He has a no trade clause, Baltimore
He has a no trade clause, Seattle
He has a no trade clause, Arizona
He has a no trade clause, Tigers
He has a no trade clause, Brewers
He has a no trade clause, Red Sox
He has a no trade clause, Phillies
Nolan Arenado will play only where Nolan Arenado wants to play. That’s LA. Unfortunately for him, he’s not needed there so he’ll be a Cardinal in 25’
Great point, he is in control and he earned that right. Seattle or AZ could happen being west. I don’t see him going to NY Philly or Detroit. Too far from LA home.
Contreras is not going to be the “regular” first baseman. The Cardinals specifically said he would be splitting time between 1B and DH, yet MLBTR continually ignores the DH part of the move.
Presumably, Alec Burleson will be covering 1B most of the rest of the time.
Arrenado and Walker to the brewers for Hoskins black and Patrick.
The Cardinals don’t need a 1B.
I like the fit with the Dodgers,.especially since Freddie may miss some early games due to surgery on his ankle. Slide Muncy over to first during rehab time. Maybe a trade package like Chris Taylor and pitching prospect (Justin Wrobleski?)
So the Nats take his full contract of what, $75mill over next 3 years and Quinn Mathews in exchange for Jake Irvin, Robert Hassell III
Was Arenado trying to set up a trade to San Diego for Cronenworth when he said he was willing to play first base? That’s the only way his statement makes sense to me.
Besides you people running this site, who sees Alec Bohm as the Phillies problem? You point out Bohm’s poor second half (.681 OPS) vs his overall .779 OPS.
Why do you ignore Bryson Stott’s .671 OPS for the entire season?
Then you don’t suggest trading for an outfielder – only Marsh is a keeper as a LH starter against RHP – but propose trades for pitchers which the Phillies do not need.
You have not even discussed any possibilities to fill the outfield holes as well as never mentioning 2B.
You add three digit OPS+ bats to 2B and the outfield and you have “shaken up the lineup”
Duh and or hello
Hello
You going to offer your services to Soto if he signs with the Mets? Wealthy people in NY right now…
Same article on repeat so far for the Cardinals.
The Cardinals don’t need to sell on Arenado. They do need to dump Mikolas and Matz and let the pitchers from AAA/AA have a shot. McGreevey, Matthews, Hence, Graceffo, Rajic etc. would collectively do a similar job to those two if given a chance and it would be for next to nothing pay wise. The money saved there could let them invest in a power OF bat. They should also trade away Gorman for a pitcher since he has no position. And they would still have $20 million to invest in player development. The Cardinals offense needs a boost. C: Herrera, Pages (Crooks) 1B: Contreras, Burleson (either could DH) 2B: Donovan (Saggese) SS: Winn (Saggese ) 3B: Arenado LF/CF Nootbaar. RF/ DH Walker, CF Siani/Scott. Sign someone like Kepler, Laureano, or Grichuck who can also play Corner outfield. They could run with Gray, Fedde, McGreevey, Hence, and Mathews.
Arenado to the Padres for Cronenworth, Brito, and Peralta. Cards chip in a prospect in the 15-20 range.
Arenado hits 5th behind Arraez/Tatis/Merrill/Manny and moves to 1b.
Where does Arraez play? I thought he was at first because he can’t really field another position?? Plus, do you think you can get another team to bite on Brito?
DH. Personally, I’d like to see Eguy Rosario finally get a real chance as the starter at 2nd. Arraez could fill in at 1st and 2nd while being the primary DH.
Why not on Brito? His minor league numbers are good, and his MLB numbers are ok..plus, he can start or come out of the pen. (If not Brito, I’d offer Waldron or Vasquez.)
Salaries in that deal would pretty much match up, and the Cardinals could go with Cronenworth at 2nd, and slide Donovan over to 3rd, plus they’d get a young, controllable arm plus pen depth.
Arraez is a league average 2B on defense. Neither good nor bad. He doesn’t have the range of Cronenworth or Bogaerts, so Padres played him at 1B and DH.
Arenado at 2B or DH? How much money is St Louis pitching in to balance the financial hit the next 3 years?
Answered yesterday. Arraez to DH. Arenado to 1st. 10m coming over. Seems about right.
Catch 22:
If they don’t pay down the contract they’ll have to ship out prospects with him.
If they do lay the contract they might as well keep him.
Rendon, $$ to offset the salary and a prospect for Arenado. Cardinals get a prospect, save a little bit and get out of the contract a year earlier.
I’d rather keep him.
How about we make the hypothetical the Phillies trading: Alec bohm (due about $8 mill) taijuan walker (making $18/ a yr for 2 yrs) and a 3 prospects not named miller or painter for: Arenado and helsley and the cards pay some of Arenados deal
What’s in it for the Cardinals? In two years, they would have nothing to show for it.