It's been a quiet offseason for the Twins as the front office faces payroll constraints for a second straight offseason. Minnesota's signing of Carlos Correa and extension for Pablo Lopez in the 2022-23 offseason -- among other moves -- pushed the club's payroll up into the $150-160MM range. Both deals came just months after owner Jim Pohlad took a step back as his nephew, Joe Pohlad, took on a far more prominent role. That ownership shuffle, coupled with the long-term nature of those deals, made it look like there'd be a lasting bump in payroll.
Clearly, that hasn't been the case. Amid uncertainty regarding the team's television broadcast rights, ownership slashed payroll back down to the $130MM range for the 2024 season. The Twins largely sat out the 2023-24 offseason, with their largest moves coming via the trade market (dealing Jorge Polanco to Seattle) and in the bargain aisle of free agency (a $5.25MM deal for Carlos Santana being their most expensive). At the end of the 2024 season, Joe Pohlad announced his intent to explore a potential sale of the team.
That's led to even more uncertainty and inflexibility with the budget this offseason, as evidenced by the Twins' complete lack of activity. RosterResource projects the Twins' payroll at about $142MM. Ownership would like that back into the $130MM range again. It's expected that at some point they'll trade righty Chris Paddack, whose $7.5MM salary looks quite affordable when juxtaposed with the aggressive market for starters this winter. They'll shop Christian Vazquez but would need to eat some of his $10MM salary. A trade of their excellent utilityman, Willi Castro, could also be explored.
Speculation regarding the possibility of larger-scale deals was inevitable, but president of baseball operations Derek Falvey said early in the offseason that the team views Correa, Lopez and Byron Buxton as "key" players to the team's 2025 outlook. Falvey has emphasized that the Twins are intent on contending in 2025, even as it looks like he'll be forced to find ways to trim player payroll before making a single addition.
A Correa trade always seemed far-fetched. He's owed $128MM over the next four years and has a full no-trade clause. Buxton also has full no-trade protection. However, the recent report from ESPN's Jeff Passan that the Twins have at least listened to offers on Lopez presents a far more compelling thought exercise. Lopez's contract is teeming with surplus value in a way that isn't true -- or isn't as true, anyway -- of the Twins' other most expensive players.
Trading Lopez would ignite swift backlash from an already frustrated and put-off fanbase. At the same time, the huge return and the potential avenues for restructuring the team in the wake of such a surprising deal are compelling enough that it's understandable if the Twins perform due diligence to at least see what the market might bear.
Let's dive into an admittedly very hypothetical look at why a Lopez trade could actually appeal to the Twins, who could be involved, and how the Twins could proceed (and possibly improve) in the aftermath.
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Why not the Angels? Detmers and Adell would be a good start. Adell is close to breakout year 20HR and Gold Glove finalist, Detmers has the arm to be a frontline starter. Both young and cheap. Both could explode with change of scenery.
I’d retort with “but why the Angels”?
Are they a Lopez away from contending?
They probably need to include another prospect (maybe a wild card like Kavadas), but I have to imagine Detmers would be enough to get them close
Detmers would be nothing better than a throw in. Angels do not have the prospects to get Lopez.
Why is it every Angels fan actually thinks Adell is worth anything? The guy has always been nothing. The guy is nothing. The guy will probably always be nothing. The real question is, Why do the Angels STILL have him? Walk away. You’ll never get anything for him much less a guy like Lopez. A Christmas joke right?
Adell is the same player at the plate. He hit more homers because he had way more plate appearances. He still put up a roughly 10% worse then average hitting line, like almost every year.
His glove has improved, no question. At this point, he’s now worked himself up to being a solid 4th outfielder with a good glove, and a high risk, ineffective bat.
Detmers has never been anything other then a back half of the rotation guy. Almost every pitcher in the majors could be a frontline starter, if only they were better.
Nobody wants Adell. Hardly anybody wants Detmers. You have to give quality to get quality.
Didn’t see yours before I posted mine.
No, I think that one was on me Mike. At any rate, Happy Christmas!!!
Been a rough day and I really needed a good laugh. Those lines about Adell and Detmers provided a seriously good belly laugh.
Angel 4 ever — If Detmers and Adell are as good as you say, shouldn’t the Angels keep them? Why trade two low-cost stars-in-waiting for a pitcher making $21.75M each of the next three seasons?
Why on earth would the Twins want Adell? Emmanuel Rodriguez is probably already better than him right now, and has zero days of service time.
Guess when you have the opportunity to downgrade to an older, worse player on an Arb-2 salary you’ve just gotta do it, right?
Sports talk radio caller: Detmers and Adell stink. The Angels should dump them any way they can.
Same caller a week later: I think the Angels should trade Detmers and Adell for (name of star player).
“Detmers has the arm to be a frontline starter“ lmfao and people say Yankees fans are overrating their players 😀
Red Sox Casas for Lopez and then Bregman signing would be good for them.
Devers to 1B, Casas and a prospect to Twins for Lopez.
Really hope Atkins awakes from his slumber and does something already. Jay’s should trade for Lopez and sign Flaherty and then trade Bassitt.
Use some of that newfound prospect capital to trade for an actual mlb level outfielder before they inevitably lose all their value, because any one outside the jays organization already knows bloss, Loperfido, Wagner etc. are at best bench depth. They have value now because they haven’t had a chance to prove they aren’t full time mlbers yet
Atkins isn’t slumbering he’s just working off an excel that only has defensive data
Trade Pablo for prospects (save 21mil)
Trade Paddack for whatever (save 7.5mil)
Trade Vazquez for anything, eat 3m (save 7m)
Trade prospects for Sandy Alcantaea (17mil)
18.5 mil to work with assuming budget neutrality
The thing is they need to add payroll right now and not shed it or else MLBPA gonna be on their ass. Also you’d be selling low on Alcantara, coming off a major injury he needs to regain his form/value before trading. They still got him for next year so makes no sense trading him this offseason.
Re: Angels. Maybe not one move away but…
Short memory – going into 2023, NOBODY thought Texas was a real contender either.
The Rangers made several aggressive roster building moves the prior offseason which didn’t pay off in ’22, but were the foundation when they made yet another few aggressive roster building moves during the next offseason. Maybe they weren’t “favourites” but they built a really good roster in two years. It was not shocking to see them have success.
Angels have to make more then a half dozen earthquake sized roster moves to be in the position that Texas was in the year they won.
NOBODY thought Texas was a real contender either.
======================
You need a larger sample size than 1. The idea of going for it, because something fairly unusual might happen, is not good management.
Then a lot of clubs fall into that one.
Wouldn’t it more sense to trade Carlos Correa? The team has more infield depth than in the rotation and he makes more.Also, $21 million is very close to what a starter of Lopez’s caliber would make in free agency so there’s not some huge amount of surplus value to market in a trade You could argue Correa is a major injury risk but Pablo Lopez is coming off a mild down year. $34 million, but maybe not $21 million, should be more than sufficient to sign an upgrade for first base and the outfield
At the very least, I think it makes more sense to evaluate the growth of their young starters and prospect arms. If the Twins’ youth movement is capable of keeping them in contention, they can still trade him in season.
If their goal is to stay in contention, then relying on a series of prospects and arms with very little major league experience seems to leave their rotation unnecessarily exposed.
Correa has a full no-trade clause, so he’d have to be convinced. And he has a very expensive contract, so, as talented as he is, the return might be sparse, It;’s not impossible, but it may be better to just try to sell the team by delivering a roster that’s not too expensive,
These are absolutely valid considerations. However as stated before, $21 million for a pitcher of Lopez’s caliber is very close to prices on the free agent market. The actual surplus value is much less than what’s being presumed. I think it makes more sense to dump Correa’s salary than to trade Lopez for a lighter than expected return.
Also, their rotation isn’t terribly deep and Pitchers like Woods-Richardson and Ryan have injury histories so a trade leaves them exposed. If there’s any chance of unloading Correa, I think it’s an obvious best option.
“If there’s any chance of unloading Correa”
That’s the thing, there isn’t. No one is taking that contract. Too much risk. The Twins valued him more then anyone else, and that continues to be true.
They signed him to that contract, and they’ve got to live with it.
Disagree, I think if Lopez was a FA he’d get about 5/115 in a longer term deal, but short term? Prob more like 3/80-85.
We honestly don’t know it’s impossible until the offer is made. You’re Knocking down a non-existent trade without knowing if the Twins’ would be willing to propose. Are they willing to take a package with zero prospects to unload salary? Are they willing to pay down even $5 million a season?
No, I don’t like the contract but there are far worse ones in the league than a remaining 4 years, $137 million.
Besides, owners have increasingly proven themselves willing to pay luxury tax if they see themselves as legitimate World Series contenders. The Dodgers received $47 from the MLB million just for winning the World Series. That excludes extra revenue earned from inflated ticket prices and extra sales of concessions and merchandise throughout the postseason.
I’m not interested in precluding a possibility when it entails omitting a large volume of relevant details.
By all means, feel free to disagree. Just keep in mind that he’s coming off a worse season than Sean Manaea, who just signed for 3 years/ $72 million.
Yes but his last three years he’s top 15 in mlb in many categories. He’s also someone who has a few blowup starts that make his bottom line era and whip look worse than they are. But he tends to have extended stretches of dominance.
And manaea got 3/75
He doesn’t even crack the top 30 for pitching WAR the last 3 seasons and that is a measure of overall value. The strikeouts are a clear plus but the home run and hits per 9 innings aren’t anything special. The home run rate and hit rate also rose noticeably last season.
I could see a scenario where trading him this offseason makes sense but see it as a clear, second best option. There are compelling depth and performance considerations that would make an in season trade more logical, if he absolutely needs to be moved.
Correa had a 3.7 WAR in 86 games. If he does that for the next 4 years the Twins get exactly what they paid for. Because of his injuries I don’t think he is tradeable. He still is worth his contract.
Last three seasons lopez is 13th in WAR in all mlb.. 4th in K.. 16th in xFIP, 12th in WS.. 15th in K/BB
What stats are you looking at?
Yeah I would be surprised if the Twins were not able to find a team in this market willing to take on the 4/133m owed to Correa. He played in only 86 games in 2024, but he did put up a 152 OPS+ and is only 30. The previous 3 years he played in 135-140 games each year so it’s not like were talking Mike Trout here.
I just look at that money and that’s about what the Mets will be paying Soto for his signing bonus and 2025 salary alone.
Max Fried gets 218m, Michael Conforto gets 17m. Would be kind of crazy if Correa was deemed too expensive owed what he is.
Picking up Pablo Lopez and Carlos Correa for less total money than the Yankees gave up for Max Fried would have been pretty sweet.
Take the day off and enjoy
The big Orioles question is whether Mayo is going to be a dud or not. I would much rather let Minnesota take that risk.
Send Minnesota Mayo and Mountcastle
I would do it for Mayo and Mountcastle, but the O’s better have a backup plan for first base. Hearing Alonso rumors lately, about which I wasn’t wildly supportive, but if Mounty and Mayo left town for a strong starter, sure…
I would want Alonso even less than I want Mountcastle.
Ji Man Choi is probably still bouncing around somewhere
I really like Mounty. I’m just saying that we’d have a big hole at 1B if he leaves. Alonso would provide desperately needed right handed power.
I LOVE Mounty, but if he left, that would leave a big hole at 1B. Alonso adds right handed power, desperately needed. He also doesn’t have much of an injury history.
No team is taking on Correa’s contract without the Twins throwing in $$$$. Twins can get more back in a Lopez deal.
I think the way that MLB front offices value starting pitchers is all wrong for a few reasons:
1) They seem to believe that a recent run of good health increases the likely hood of future good health. This is false. Injuries are inevitable. The more innings a pitcher has thrown since his last major injury, the more likely he is to get injured in the near future. Between 500 and 600 healthy innings seems to be the average.
2) Pitchers age and decline differently than hitters. Teams seem to believe that because pitchers are more injury prone overall than position players, it is safer to hand out long term contracts that take hitters into their late 30’s or early 40’s. This is also false. Pitchers don’t show the same rate of decline after age 32 that hitters do. Pitchers tend to decline gradually while hitters often fall off a cliff. It is a safer bet to assume that a successful starting pitcher will remain effective in to his mid to late 30’s, than it is to assume a hitter will do the same.
3) Because of the length of time it takes for pitchers to recover from injuries, short-term, high AAV contracts for pitchers are actually much riskier than long-term, lower AAV deals. One injury can wipe out a majority of a three year contract and leave the team with very little time to recoup any value. The long term deal increases the likelihood that a team is going to pay for some injury years, but it also increases the opportunity for the team to recoup value.
Basically, if I were the Twins, I would be happy to trade Lopez. If I were the rest of MLB, I would approach the deal with caution.
Great post Don, you make really excellent points.
The one thing I would draw a slightly different conclusion than you is on your third point. Your overall premise is correct that one significant injury can torpedo a short term contract. I don’t think that makes them riskier by nature though. Remember, everything is a trade off. It’s just a matter of framing and accepting different types of risk.
The pitcher’s contract terms on their own don’t make him any more or less likely to get hurt any given season. That either is going to happen or not.
For a mid-market team like Minnesota that is not willing/able to commit endless resources to their payroll every year, the risk of being wrong on a short term deal is going to be preferable 8 or 9 times out of 10 because the sunk cost only torpedoes a couple of seasons. Not to pick on a specific team or guy, but just say they gave Yamamoto the deal he just got last winter and his arm falls off (figuratively) in 2026 and he never regains effective form again. An organization like the Twins can’t bear that large of a sunk cost, so if they whiff on a huge long term deal like that they honestly might not be a competitive team again until the late 2030’s.
That type of risk is acceptable to the New Yorks, LA’s, occasionally the Bostons of the league because they have enough money to cover up for mistakes. For the teams who don’t, it’s unacceptable because it would be ruinous. When they are in position to make a major splurge to “go for it” during a competitive window, they are better off taking the proposition with the short term deal that the guy could put them over the top for a very brief time, or give them absolutely nothing.
I agree with your premise. I’m just saying the “arm falls off” phenomenon isn’t that likely. Arm injuries have become so common and the procedures/treatments/rehabilitative processes so refined, most pitchers are able to return to pre-surgery form eventually. Long-term contracts give them the time and still allow the team to recoup some value at a lower AAV.
Thoracic Outlet Syndrome seems to be the greatest exception here. The Stephen Strasburg case stands as a warning to any team signing pitchers, but it looks more like an exception than the rule.
Great points as usual, Don. I would also add to your 3rd point- going forward, I think you’ll see more and more Team Options baked into (long- & short-term) pitching contracts to mitigate injuries.
Re: Blake Snell’s recent injury proviso
All that aside, I’d love Lopez on my Pads but I shudder at the potential acquisition cost. Hope y’all had a very merry Christmas!
Feliz Navidad to you as well! Excellent point on the team options. I think the Pads land Sasaki.
*prayer emoji*
YaGottaBelieveAgain —
It reminds me of when Herman Munster bought a used car from a car thief named Fair Deal Dan (played by Frank Gorshin). Shortly after Herman reaches home, the car explodes. Lily makes him and Grandpa return the vehicle, after which Herman is arrested for possessing a stolen car.