The Twins have listened to trade offers on right-hander Pablo López, reports Jeff Passan of ESPN. That doesn’t necessarily mean the Twins are likely to move him, but it suggests it’s at least possible.
As recently as the middle of November, president of baseball operations Derek Falvey downplayed the idea of the Twins subtracting a notable player from their roster via a blockbuster trade. He identified López, Carlos Correa and Byron Buxton as “key” pieces of the roster that were unlikely to move. “Everyone is always going to ask when you’re a team in the payroll bracket that we are,” Falvey said. “I feel really confident those guys are going to be part of the ability for us to do what we want on the field. They’re going to fuel us hopefully to some of the success we want to have. … I feel really good about those players.”
Despite that public framing, it’s understandable why the front office might at least consider alternative possibilities. It’s been reported that the Twins are likely going to have a payroll around $130MM next year, the same as they had in 2024. RosterResource currently projects them for $142MM in 2025, suggesting they may need to find some cuts.
Guys like Chris Paddack and Christian Vázquez have been floated as potential trade candidates who could help the club get down to their preferred level, though neither is likely to have massive trade value. Paddack is going to make $7.5MM next year, the final year on his deal, but he hasn’t been at his sharpest in a while. He had a strong 3.33 earned run average in his 2019 rookie season, but his ERA was closer to 5.00 in the next two seasons. He then missed most of 2022 and 2023 due to Tommy John surgery. He was back on the mound in 2024 but finished the year with a 4.99 ERA.
Vázquez also has just one year left on his deal, with a $10MM salary. He’s a strong defender behind the plate but has hit just .222/.265/.322 over the past two seasons. That production translates to a wRC+ of 63, indicating he was 37% worse than league average.
Trading one or both of those players could help the Twins with their budget crunch but likely wouldn’t bring back massive returns. López, on the other hand, should have lots of appeal. He’s set to make $21.5MM in each of the next three years, leaving $64.5MM remaining on his contract.
That’s a very nice price for a pitcher who is going into his age-29 season and has been one of the better hurlers in baseball over the past five years. From 2020 to the present, he has thrown 719 1/3 innings with a 3.70 ERA, 26.3% strikeout rate, 6.3% walk rate and 45.6% ground ball rate. FanGraphs has credited him with 14.7 wins above replacement in that time, which puts him 13th out of all pitchers in the majors for that stretch.
The price of starting pitching has been especially strong so far this winter. Nathan Eovaldi just got three years and $75MM. His numbers have been fairly similar to López in recent years but he’s far older, going into his age-35 season. Pitchers like Yusei Kikuchi and Luis Severino have had notably worse results than López/Eovaldi but both got three-year deals, Kikuchi getting a $63MM guarantee and Severino $67MM.
It seems fair to conclude that the strong market might lead to the Twins getting some interesting offers that could at least make them reconsider their stance on López. Of course, the same things that make him appealing to other clubs also make him very valuable in Minnesota. The club can certainly hold onto him and trade guys like Paddack and/or Vázquez, but perhaps they will receive an offer for López that allows them to both get their payroll down to the desired level while also adding a notable return that helps the franchise in the short and long term.
As of now, the rotation group consists of López, Paddack, Joe Ryan, Bailey Ober and Simeon Woods Richardson. Trading López or Paddack would weaken the group but would also open a spot for young pitchers like Zebby Matthews or David Festa, both of whom debuted in 2024. The Twins also have some non-roster options like Huascar Ynoa and Darren McCaughan in the mix.
Subtracting López is surely not what the front office wants and there’s no indication that they are shopping him around. But the hot starting pitching market seems to be making various clubs ponder trades of starting pitchers a bit harder than they expected to. Names like Luis Castillo, Dylan Cease, Jesús Luzardo and Framber Valdez have somewhat surprisingly been in rumors of late. A team being willing to listen doesn’t mean a trade is going to happen, as shown with Valdez and the Astros, as he is now apparently off the table. However, it’s an interesting twist on the offseason, with free agents like Corbin Burnes, Jack Flaherty and Sean Manaea still available.
A solid number 2 right there.
I had one of those this morning.
Thanks for the laugh. Good one! (or two).
Hoping for better results for me in the morning …
He’s a good pitcher but you aren’t winning anything if he’s your number 2.
That seems like a pretty stupid statement. You think a team with a legit ace like Cole or burnes can’t win with him as their 2? The Yankees got to the World Series last year with a rotation of rodon, a gassed Gil, and stroman behind him. Lopez would have easily been their 2. You’re nuts
Yeah, he’s actually more of a 1a other than ERA. If he’s your 3, you have the best pitching staff in the world.
Pablo would slot in as a number five with the Dodgers behind Snell, Yamamoto, Glasnow and Ohtani. The only problem is Lopez is too durable for their liking.
Yeah, he wouldn’t fit in! I’d still take Lopez over Glasnow because he can never pitch a full season. Glimpses of greatness don’t impress me if he can’t crack 25 starts ever.
I’d also take him over Yamamoto currently until we see Yamamoto is able to get through a whole season. Plus, I think people don’t realize how good Lopez’s underlying numbers are.
Lopez is a very good pitcher, the guy will always be on my Christmas list
So what do the orioles do if they miss out on burnes ? How many times can they continue to deplete their farm for high end pitching ? Not like Lopez or Castillo will come cheap but if they are going to contend next season, they almost have to acquire one of them….
Baltimore is on a ticking clock. Those young players are going to get much more expensive over the next 3 years. They need to go for the ring while they can.
At some point the focus of the franchise has to shift from the great farm to the great MLB team, and that will require moving some pieces to clean up any weaknesses on the 25 man roster. This is the time to move past the prospect hound stage and making a move to contention by either signing free agents or trading the kids.
Prospects don’t have very good shelf life, so you either need to play them or trade them or else you end up with a bunch of 28 year rookies with a great AAA pedigree and that’s not valuable.
The offense youth core has been main reason for its swoon late last year and getting swept in its playoff appearances. Subtract Santander and this is a team fighting for 3rd WCard. What may get explained away as growing pains like Mayo being way overmatched his first look up can become “uh-oh” fast even in terms of being viewed as a headliner trade chip.
I agree. While Castillo is in decline and shouldn’t require top prospects to acquire, I’d be ok trading any guys from outside our top two (Mayo, Basallo) for Lopez. I wouldn’t be surprised if it took something like Bradfield and Povich+ bc that’s the cost of pitching today. But it’d be a good get for the Os and a Bradish, Looez, Grayson, Eflin playoff rotation could compete with anybody. With baseballs deepest lineup and a plus pen with the return of Felix a move for a guy like Lopez could take them from Wild card team to World Series contender.
Well said
That’s not a bad return, but the twins will still look to compete this year. So prob want a ready position player to cover first or OF
I think Seattle might take that return a little easier and I’m ready to admit Castillo is in decline. Many excellent pitchers have down years in their mid 30’s and bounce back.
I’m sure Seattle would take that deal as well! But they won’t be offered anything approaching such a strong return for Castillo. I’d trade Povich straight up. Or Mountcastle and a couple fliers; maybe even Mountcaste and Wells, though that would certainly be an overpay I would still do it given our current rotation situation (which is exactly what Seattle is hoping for).
Why would they trade him for that ? His contract is at plus value and they are looking to get better in a trade, not dump payroll
Orioles won 101 games in 2023 without a TOR. Ten less at 91 last year with a TOR. The difference? Overall health of staff was excellent in 23 (outside of Wells). Last year, horrific. Seeing how Elias builds a roster, my gut says he’s done SP shopping for this year. In his mind; he’s got enough arms right now to make another run. Gulp. Here’s to good health in 25!
Because that would be a strong return. Former top 100 prospect with 6 years of control who showed great progression late last season and an OF prospect who is flirting with top 100. It’s possible they could pull a top 50 prospect elsewhere but I doubt the second piece would be so strong.
The Orioles have already done that though.
The decent prospects who never had any real chance of playing a significant role in Baltimore- Ortiz, Norby, Stowers, Hernaiz, etc.- were used as trade chips to improve the MLB roster (or at least try to).
The only guy who really comes close to fitting the criteria you are describing at this point is Kjerstad and he will 100% be on the opening day roster next year (unless injured or traded).
That is certainly the issue. We’ve built a competitive team almost entirely from within our farm and are now running out of prospects from which to deal. We tried supplementing last year’s roster – and we did a great job on paper – but the wheels fell off the bus due to a catastrophic string of injuries. So we basically lost Ortiz, Hall, Norby, Stowers, plus depth (to the Rays) for very limited value in return. So now we’re stuck with a top heavy system and can’t realistically compete with the Red Sox, Cubs, etc. on the trade market. It’s a tough place to be and we’ll have to get creative to pull something off. I think Lopez is probably unrealistic if the Twins require mlb ready prospect in return. We have them but there’s no chance we trade guys with the ceilings of Mayo, Kjerstad, etc. when we’re trying to improve as well. And while Bradfield and Honeycutt have high ceilings, they’re also high risk projects who are not what contending teams are looking for in trades. I suppose if Lopez could be had straight up for Kjerstad the O’s would have to consider it and maybe see if Santander would give up a little bit of money to come home to Baltimore. The real question there of course becomes are the Orioles prepared to increase payroll by $40 million (roughly 20 a piece for Lopez and Santander) to make a World Series push.
I think Kjerstad or Mayo could be had by another team for the right price, but I’m not sure a guy is available right now that would qualify as that for Elias.
The upper minors are definitely getting a bit (but not totally) bare right now, but the young international guys from our newfound presence in that market are starting to bubble up into the higher levels so I’m not too worried about it. We have more than enough cheap, young talent on the MLB roster and in AAA to tide us over until they start arriving in earnest in a couple more years and the ability to spend to fill any holes that pop up in the meantime thanks to the new ownership.
And even if Kjerstad was to be traded, there would still be no good reason to re-sign Santander. The O’Neill signing closed the door on the possibility of a reunion with him and I am perfectly okay with that. Borderline happy, even.
Then who would be their 4th outfielder? Daz Cameron or Jordyn Adams? None of the prospects are close and need to improve (i.e. Fabian, Beavers, Bradfield)
I like the link to Tommy John when talking about the surgeries, give the man his due!
Side Note since this isn’t relevant to any recent articles:
I happened to just take a look at Gleyber Torres’ IG story and it’s from his birthday party or something and he’s being presented with a cupcake and a sparkler, etc. and he looks… unhappy.
Kinda wonder if a player like him is sweating free agency.
I mention this because the only thing I’ve seen about Gleyber is Cashman doing a full spectrum interview in which he automatically says “we could always wind up re-signing all our free agents or we could use someone else at that position.”
So, I kinda wonder if Gleyber knows his market is terrible and a guy once projected to potentially wind up on one of those generational 15 years/$450M type deals is now hoping to just get like 1 year/$5M and a chance to rebound… (I realize he will in all likelihood get more like 1 year/$15M to 3 years/$60M or something, but the point stands)
FWIW, Torres has already made 35M — not bad. That being said, he’s also made 10M MORE in 1 less MLB season than Ozzie Albies, while being worth ~10 less bWAR than Albies. And Albies has missed extended time due to injuries, so the gap could have been larger.
Being a Yankee fan and having regular exposure to Glyber, it’s possible you are right. He’s a better player than his harshest credits give him credit for, but he wasn’t able to sustain his breakout and settled back into a stasis of OK, decent, usable, etc. If he came back to the Yankees on a one year deal for less than $10M
Yeah, if I was Boston or Baltimore I’d much rather have Lopez than Castillo. The Mariners will probably wait too long to play the market. And then team’s won’t need to trade for Castillo. And they don’t have the money for free agents and it will be the same song and dance all over again where they have to sign bottom feeder free agents….
There’s no comparison between the two. Lopez is still in his prime and can be a No. 2 on a world series contender. Castillo is in decline and profiles as a 3 currently and might be a 4 by the end of his contract. Both players are worth adding but Castillo just isn’t worth much of a return.
Until G. Torres improves his defense he is going to have to accept less $ per year or shorter term contracts
The Orioles, Yankees, Mets, etc. need to start calling the Twins and pry Lopez away. The Twins are in the process of burning down their franchise before they have new owners in place and take over.
Red Sox need to trade casas + for Pablo Lopez, move devers to first the trade for arenado. Sign a closer then they are AL East Favs imo
I like Bregman too but he’ll cost more annual and be locked up for more years. Armando is the safer bet
Unfortunately for the Red Sox, while the team is definitely on the right track they are way more than a couple moves away from competing with the orioles and Yankees. The Yankees are spending a lot of money to plug a number of holes and will be a more complete team than they were last year while the orioles could stand pat and do nothing and still win 95 games next year easily just from better health and minor improvements by holliday, Kjerstad, etc. That’s not a knock against the Red Sox, simply the reality that the two best teams in the league stand between them and the top of the AL East. The Red Sox have no chance at competing with the orioles until they graduate a few of their top prospects AND add 50-100 mil in payroll.
I agree but Red Sox prospects and graduated players may end up better than the lot in Baltimore. Bold statement but it’s tending that way !
I don’t think there’s any chance at all of that happening but I like the optimism! The current group of Red Sox prospects pales in comparison to the Adley/Gunnar/Holliday run which was complemented by GRod (a blossoming ace albeit with injury issues), Westburg (an all star in his own right), Cowser (runner up ROY), Kjerstad, etc. with Mayo and Basallo still on their way.
Meanwhile,
Boston may have been a bit more balanced with Bello and Crawford on the pitching end and Duran (their crown jewel seemingly out of nowhere) and Casas (who is good but seems to be by far the single most overrated player in the sport by his team’s fanbase). That’s solid but not anywhere near approaching the Orioles group. The Anthony/Mayer/Campbell trio is impressive but in comparing the teams Mayer/Campbell are cancelled out by Mayo/Basallo, which means for the teams to even be comparable Anthony is going to need to be substantially better than Gunnar (basically he’d need to be the best player in baseball) with several other players taking huge jumps. I think the reality is that what the Red Sox are doing is fantastic and the organization should be proud of its development right now but they aren’t in the same stratosphere as the Orioles. “The lot in Baltimore” is the best homegrown group of the last two decades with Houston’s core a decade ago being its only rival.
Time will tell : )
Until the O’s win, their players are overrated as a group. It takes 26 on the roster and as baseball is the most team oriented sport (because starters can’t go every game, etc.(. The Sox of 18 with Betts, JBJ, Devers and Bogie wasn’t a bad core of non-free agent eligible players that won in 18. Yet it still took imports like Pearce, Eovaldi, Moreland, etc. to win as a team. Until the O’s win, they can’t be considered the best group of internal players. IMO.
They’ve won 192 games in the past two years. What do you want the young team to do? We’ve still got plenty of time to win in the playoffs. The group isn’t overrated at all. The industry goes nuts over these guys bc there’s no other group that can compare.
Just none of those guys are Acuna or Soto yet on either team, Gunnar is close. Campbell might be the best of the whole lot though when all said and done
I like the O’s ! They need to win in the post season thou. Window can’t get any wider and will eventually start to shut
“deplete” depends on supply, not just demand. if the Orioles are better at dev of batters than pitchers (which up until this past year was the general murmur) — then they’d be swapping inventory from their strength for their weakness. they have been pretty successful at trades with the Twins, I’d love to see that continue. not to the loss of Bassallo or Mayo… but some down stream offensive prospects, maybe. Burnes is going to be fine but as much as I want him, the O’s can’t have an long term albatross contract out there. seems Burnes and Boras are really wanting a long contract. I would be happier with either one with a shorter term and higher AAV or with team options at regular assessment periods. but I can’t see him signing the latter.
I really don’t want to lose Burnes, he is a great fit for the Birds except his vulnerability to steals.
All good teams will listen to any overture, even if it’s simply to open the door to other conversations with a fellow GM. To me, this is not even worthy of an article because you could say that about almost any player on any team. Especially since Falvey listed Lopez as a core guy.
The Cubs have the prospects/suspects.
And he’s a right-hander
If I was Hoyer I’d make a call. can’t hurt to talk if Minny is serious.
The cubs have such a deep stock of top 100 guys that they could easily pry him away without losing to much capital
Orioles should definitely pursue. Below market deal signed for multiple years. Hes not an ace, but there arent any of those left other than burnes. Id be willing to give up Bassalo, but not any of the young infielders or kerstadjt. The Orioles have regularly failed at developing pitchers, so trading for someone signed longer term should be the way to go. Castillo is the other pitcher id be interested in trading for.
No to trading basallo. A top 10 prospect who is a LH hitting catcher should be the primary piece in a more significant trade, if traded at all. Plus he’s still one year away and the O’s will need him. Kjerstad is more fair, assuming the Twins want a major leaguer, even though the O’s currently need him too, but it’s easier to bring in another outfielder
I agree. Basallo should only be dealt in a deal for an absolute star player. Lopez is very good but he should be available for a package without a top 15 prospect. The orioles don’t have other top 100 guys but we see how these deals go – you don’t have to trade top 100 guys if you’re willing to give up quantity of very good prospects outside the top 100. I’m certain that Povich/Beavers/15-20 guy would get it done. That would hurt a lot but it’s supposed to when acquiring that good of a player.
Pablo would fit real nice on the Angels!
Braves! AA, get him!!!!
Who knows how much credit this story has but wouldn’t mind the Brewers dumping Hoskins and a mid level prospect for Lopez. Their window is still open to control the central although the Chubs are closing that gap. Don’t know what kind of Woodruff we’ll be getting and hope Tobias Myers remains solid but who knows. Make a phone call and see what they want for him.
lol. Twins are trying to cut payroll and brewers aren’t going to pay both salaries. Try black, mis….and quero. That might get it done
That wouldn’t interest the twins at all, I’m sure. Giving up a pitcher on a great contact for a first baseman with a bad one would require tremendous prospect casual in return. Starting with Quero and at least another organizational top 10 guy, likely more.
Time for the Yankees to get creative. Pablo is a must have
So many teams will want Lopez… Orioles Mets Red Sox… the usual suspects
The price will be steep of course
Pablo will cost the Red Sox Casas and most likely Mayer as well. If they could put together a package of Casas, Abreu & a couple of prospects not named Anthony, Mayer or Campbell then it might be worth looking into.
Personally, I’d rather see them sign Burnes & hold on to their prospects, but it seems the Sox are still balking at spending market rates for top free agents, so this might be the only way they can vastly improve their rotation.
Hurry up and buy the team, Ishbia family. The Pohlad family are liars, cheap, and a greedy family!
IF MIN trades Pablo Lopez why should their fans take them seriously as trying to compete in the next 3 years? He should be a building block that they keep. Short term expectations of a big return shows no stability in their leadership. Concentrate on your real problems.
Depends on what they trade him for doesn’t it?
It’s like they’re actively trying to piss off the fanbase!
The Twins story has been they can never field a solid starting rotation. So they finally land a decent SP (who they traded Arraez for), signed him to a decent deal, and they just can’t wait to offload him. They just let Gray walk last year. Now they are relying on Joe Ryan and Bailey Ober to carry them? The Pohlads need to hurry up and sell the team to the Ishbia bros already. If you don’t care about your baseball team, just sell them already
God the Twins suck
I don’t think the Twins feel any urgency to trade Lopez. The did this with Kepler for several years where they dangled him out there fishing for an overpay that never materialized. I’d say odds are Lopez is their Opening Day SP.