On the heels of an overnight signing, here are three things we’ll be keeping an eye on around the baseball world throughout the day:
1. What’s next for the Mets?
The Mets reportedly signed right-hander Frankie Montas to a two-year deal worth $34MM that includes an opt-out after the 2025 season yesterday. In doing so, they filled the first of three rotation spots that were vacated by the departures of Sean Manaea, Luis Severino, and Jose Quintana in free agency. Montas, who struggled last year to a 4.84 ERA and 4.71 FIP in 150 2/3 innings of work between the Reds and Brewers, is hardly a surefire impact addition to their starting five but should eat innings at the back of the rotation with the upside to provide additional value — not unlike Manaea was viewed at the time of his deal with New York last year.
While the Mets are sure to remain zeroed in on Juan Soto, there’s little question that the club is going to continue to pursue rotation upgrades. Will president of baseball operations David Stearns and his front office use their financial might to land a surefire ace like Corbin Burnes or Max Fried, or does the club plan to operate similarly to last winter on the rotation market while focusing their largest additions on a lineup that stands at risk of losing Pete Alonso?
2. Is there more coming from the Cubs?
The Cubs entered the offseason surrounded by rumors they could look to add to the top of their rotation this winter, but they’ve subsequently reversed course to focus on middle tiers of the starting pitching market. That ostensible shift in focus seemingly led to today’s overnight deal for southpaw Matthew Boyd, who reportedly signed on with the club for $29MM over two years. The Cubs were generally expected to look to add players to their rotation and bullpen this winter while also searching for an upgrade behind the plate. They’ve at least nominally addressed all three of those positions already this winter by adding Boyd, Eli Morgan, and Matt Thaiss. Is there more coming from the Cubs, or does the remainder of their offseason hinge on working out a Cody Bellinger trade?
3. When will the market for QO starters heat up?
One quirk of the pitching market movement this winter is that it’s been focused exclusively on hurlers who aren’t attached to draft pick compensation. While many of the starters expected to land multi-year deals this winter received a qualifying offer last month, Montas and Boyd join Yusei Kikuchi and Blake Snell among the list of starters who did not. Some unencumbered free agents such as Jack Flaherty and Nathan Eovaldi remain, but the options on that front are dwindling. Will teams continue to shy away from qualified free agent starters until later in the offseason, or could the coming days spur some activity on the other side of the starting pitching market?
Montas seems like overpay but his value is tied to two things: innings and no QO making him more valuable to any organization looking for SP depth. I don’t think the QO will hurt Manaea but it wouldn’t surprise me if Severino languishes and ends up back at CitiField on a 2-year deal for ~$45m-50m and maybe with an option. L
Mets will aim higher for 1 of Burnes/Fried/Flaherty/Buehler after learning whether they land Soto first. This is just an appetizer.
No way Severino gets $$22.5m+ average. If he can’t find a better deal, I can see him signing a two year $36m max with a $6m buyout. Thus, he saves face on rejecting the QO.
One from Burnes/Field and one from Flaherty/Buehler would fill out the Mets rotation nicely.
I would rather have paid the extra money for Eovaldi. I think this is a terrible signing. I would rather have saved $15M or so and given Butto or Megill a chance for the 5th spot (and I know many won’t agree w/ me on that).
You bring up money spent like it matters even a little bit.
Montas and Boyd contracts both seem like an overpay to me.
Supply and demand. This is not difficult to understand.
@dugmet the QO shouldn’t even matter in this case. Both Burnes and Soto should be their top targets and both have the QO attached. This offseason is the one to spend and disregard the QO since our draft picks are going to suck regardless due to us being in the luxury tax
The Kikuchi and Montas deals seems to indicate a dollar premium on pitchers not attached to QO’s.
Maybe an intern in the Mets FO accidentally added an extra zero to Montas’ contract?
That whole draft pick compensation is so overvalued. If you want a top player, you don’t worry about that. Meanwhile, no, the Cubs probably won’t be adding any more starting pitching. And anything hinging on Belli is just silly. Cubs have stupid money as a big market but don’t act like one.
For top players, yes, but not for some of this midrange players. Manaea is a good sp, but I’m sure that QO will make some teams stay away. I know the Mets shy away from signing QO players bc of it. Hence, this terrible Montas signing.
A pitcher with a 4.84 ERA gets an opt out? It should be a team option with player achievements that can make it guaranteed. A lot of money for a pitcher with an ERA of almost 5.
Aside from possibly trading Bellinger, it’ll be supplemental moves from Hoyer would be my guess. I’m not sure the Cubs have what it takes to beat the Brewers and win the division. In my mind, the favorites to win the NL Central are the Brewers, I don’t have confidence in the Cubs beating them.
It amazes me that the Cubs would pay about 15M AAV for a guy like Boyd and not pay the additional 7 or so million per year for a guy like Eovaldi, who is much more proven, durable, and has an excellent track record in the.postseason (not that the Cubs will be in the tournament).
Soto is signing with the Red Sox!
Cubs are in a spot w Bellinger, if they trade him they need another bat.
Id consider trading Nico, put Belli at 1B/RF and try to live w Busch at 2B/DH then work Shaw in when he’s ready. Also Shaw can be insurance if Paredes doesn’t come around. Caisse needs to be getting work at 1B also.
Trade the farm for Castillo and Raleigh and hope it’s enough to make a run.?
If Dodgers land Sasaki it’s basically game over for the NL for the next 5-7yrs.
As a NYM fan I’d like to see them sign Buehler and Sasaki
NO interest in Fried OR Flaherty.
but Bieber, Eovaldi, Manaea and Quintana (2 year should cost less than other FAs and a LH) would be good additions IMO.
Means IF healthy.
Also possibly Burnes (instead of one of the 2 above) at a reasonable price and length of contract If he insists on 7 years I’d let some other team sign him
SOO Important to bolster bullpen with 2 or 3 solid relievers. Butto might be used in BP as setup instead of a starter
A lonsghot trade for Helsley or Miller (OAK)
I want to keep our best prospects – ____maybe trade 1 or 2
Need (1 of AJ Minter or Tanner Scott), Raley, Junis, Turnbull, possibly Yarbrough, Moore or Smyly as LHRP
Expect MUCHO activity in Dallas TX at Winter meetings.
SOTO makes his choice and then many other players follow up make a deal.
LGM!!!
Why not Fried, he is a good one. It’s not going to be the same without seeing him in a Braves uniform. I just keep hoping he continues with us.
The pitcher, Martinez?, who accepted the QO must be kicking himself after seeing the Montas deal. Innings eater? Lmao
Why would he be kicking himself? He only has to sign a one year deal at $15 million next year to equal Montas.
People have obviously have not grown accustomed to how much major league veteran pitchers are getting paid now.
Mets offseason: Soto: $55
Alonso: $25
Buehler $25
Montas $17
T.Scott $12
Winker $8
Trade McNeil and Marte for relievers
Trade J.Williams, Baty and Tidwell for Crochet
Rotation: Buehler, Crochet, Senga, Montas and Peterson
The Mets’ patchwork approach to filling their rotation reeks of desperation masked as strategy, while the Cubs’ pivot to mid-tier signings screams of settling for mediocrity. Meanwhile, the market’s hesitation on QO starters reflects a league too scared to invest in proven talent, opting instead for bargains and half-measures.