As the Hot Stove continues to simmer following a busy Winter Meetings week, here are three things we’ll be keeping an eye on today:
1. Could a Luzardo deal be in the works?
The overwhelming majority of teams are at least ostensibly trying to contend in 2024, leaving precious few rebuilding teams who can be expected to trade established players for prospects this winter. The Marlins are among the few clear sellers, and they’re seemingly open for business regarding their established players not named Sandy Alcantara. They already dealt infielder Jake Burger to the Rangers during the Winter Meetings, and now it appears left-hander Jesus Luzardo could be the next player Miami deals away. The Cubs are reportedly making a push to acquire the southpaw.
It’s not clear if a deal between the sides is close or if there are any other Luzardo suitors in active talks with the Fish, but adding Luzardo would give a Chicago team that already swung a trade for star outfielder Kyle Tucker an upside arm to pair with fellow lefties Justin Steele and Shota Imanaga, likely slotting in ahead of Jameson Taillon and Matthew Boyd in the starting five. Luzardo struggled in 2024, making just 12 starts due to lumbar issues and pitching to a 5.00 ERA when healthy enough to take the mound. However, he’s among the hardest-throwing lefties in the sport and is just one year removed from posting a 3.58 ERA with a 28.1% strikeout rate in 32 starts in 2023.
2. Baddoo resolution imminent:
A resolution regarding the future of Tigers outfielder Akil Baddoo is expected today. Baddoo was designated for assignment by Detroit last week to create 40-man space for freshly-signed righty Alex Cobb, giving them one week to either trade Baddoo or attempt to pass him through waivers. That one week window expires today, so it should soon be apparent whether or not he’s headed to a new team. Baddoo, a former Rule 5 pick by the Tigers, impressed during his rookie season in 2021 with above-average numbers at the plate but has hit just .203/.292/.328 in the majors across the last three seasons. Any acquiring team would be on the hook to offer Baddoo a contract via arbitration in 2025, which projections from MLBTR’s Matt Swartz projects to land at $1.6MM.
3. MLBTR Chat today:
With the Winter Meetings behind us, the offseason is in full swing with 16 of MLBTR’s Top 50 Free Agents off the board. Whether you have questions about who your favorite team will be targeting this winter or a trade proposal in the back of your mind, MLBTR’s Steve Adams will be here to answer your questions during a live chat scheduled for 1pm CT. You can click here to ask a question in advance, join in live once the chat begins, or read the transcript once the chat is complete.
Luzardo is the perfect pitcher for the Red Sox!
He would require only top prospects.
He would have a cheap salary.
He was awful this year.
And he had a serious back injury this year.
What could possibly go wrong? He is everything the Red Sox are always looking for!!!
Mayer, Campbell and Abreu for Luzardo ….. you heard it here first ;O)
That is a lot to give up for Luzardo who isn’t all that good when he is healthy.
Boston’s rotation is looking pretty solid. Bryan Bello is legit, and with both Houck and Crawford coming off their best season’s, Crochet at the top. Boston is set in the rotation.
Are you slow?
I picked up on the sarcasm while writing my reply but didn’t care to reframe it. Marlins are interesting though, interesting pitching staff and prospects.
Bello is legit….imately disappointing.
I love Brayan Bello’s mechanics, great arm slot, he is going to real good in a year or two.
Hoping that you’re right. Watching him pitch so far has been painful. (Somehow he’s been the starter for like 2/3rds of the handful of Fenway games I’ve been able to make over the last could years, and none of them have gone well.)
Meow – I totally agree! He’s got great stuff, but he tends to implode when things don’t go his way. Among the primary starting rotation he had the worst ERA on the team this year, 4.49 ERA won’t cut it for the money he’s getting, It was disappointing he regressed this year, and he will be 26 next season so it’s time to start producing.
On a positive note, he did pitch better in the second half of the season.
This is where a guy like Burnes comes in handy; a proven veteran mentor who can help the younger guys through the ups and downs of a long season. Harder to do that with a rotation of mostly unproven guys
In 2023, Luzardo’s performance would have made him the ace of the Boston staff. In 2024 he was hurting.
sand – He didn’t pitch after June 16 because of the back injury.
Any team that gives up much for him now would be assuming a large amount of risk.
Given thats its the Marlins the price tag may not be that steep if you deal from an area of depth.
In the Sox case, if they were to sign Bregman or swing a trade for Arenado and then went to the Marlins and offered Casas for Luzardo it’s not that bad. Even trading Abreu, who is essentially a place holder for Roman Anthony isn’t that bad if that is the main return for the Marlins
“not named [player name]”
See this a lot in the posts and now in articles.
It’s been years now, and it not so cute anymore. It’s something a
7 year-old would say/write to impress his/her friends as to how
kooool they are.
Can’t write “”other than”?
I don’t understand why the Cubs aren’t all in on Castillo. Luzardo is an injury waiting to happen. Putting Castillo between Steele and Imanaga would give them a reliably solid top 3 in their rotation. It would probably cost them Hoerner, but Shaw could handle 2B. They’d have to figure out 3B but there are options for that. And the rotation would have a serious upgrade.
If I were the Cubs, I’d be all in on Matt Boyd and Javier Assad. I’d be all in on a lineup featuring Happ/Suzuki/Tucker/Bellinger/Swanson at the top, with Busch/Shaw/Amaya/Hoerner five through nine.
PCA? I hope you just ‘forgot’ about him, because he doesn’t belong in Iowa from what he showed second half of last season.
Castillo salary is the problem but if they could get rid of Bellinger then I think he makes plenty of sense. Trading Bellinger to the Mariners of course would be simple.
Cubs want to trade out Cody in a deal. I believe Seattle wants to remove vs add payroll. So they would want Hoerner which leaves the Cubs a bit short at 3B/2B.
If Seattle and Chicago could even the deal in cash hard maybe.
Luzardo would cost Triantos and Wicks. It is a cheaper add and Jed has Brown and Assad as pitching depth for injury
This keeps leverage in the Bellinger talks
WSox are really down to Robert as far as seeking a good headliner prospect (and whoever Rockies will truly listen on), so true that Marlins in a good spot to upgrade its farm system with at least some volume of second tier guys.
Considering what Tucker brought back to the Astros, Robert’s market has to be luke warm.
I’d say Robert’s value would be in comparison Cam Smith/Hayden Wesneski sans Issac Parades.
It’s a good trade for a team in need of a CF. While Robert has been inconsistent, his platform year in ’23 shows what he is capable of, and those numbers are in line with Tucker’s big year in ’24. Tucker has been consistently good. Robert flashed some potential.
White Sox should be interested in a trade like that, the Mets have a blue chip prospect that they could deal. LuisAngel Acuna and say Jonah Tong. Or Ronny Mauricio and Blade Tidwell.
The FA landing spots and even trade efforts by clubs for SPs likely have to shake out before WSox can see who wants to trade for 3yrs club control between his wide gap of ’23/24 season results.
Phillies have interest-WSox would want Crawford as an all tools except power potential CF and perhaps a couple miscellaneous bullpen projects-like a dressed up 1 for 1. They need to zone in on a well rounded OF…..or better glove SS prospect that would allow them to shift Colson Montgomery to 3B.
I think Roberts surplus value is roughly 25 million but he’s a hard player to judge.
I do not get the obsession with Luzardo. He’s a mediocre pitcher that is treated like this secretly Cy Young level pitcher who will realize his potential if a contending large market club trades for him.
Then again, it reminds me of the Greinke hype and sweepstakes years ago when he was originally in KC. He was treated as an inevitably Cy Young level pitcher that was destined to be traded to a large market club and realize his potential, even as he had ERA’s that were bad to middle of the road pretty good, most years.
So maybe that’s how large market clubs view Luzardo? A Greinke type who has a few sub-2 ERA seasons somewhere in him that they want to capitalize on in the future?
Trill – Young hard-throwing lefties tend to be overvalued.
It’s the obsession with velocity.
You do realize Greinke did actually win a Cy Young. He also finished his career posting nine seasons with an ERA under 3.50, and five seasons under 3.
He’s got 77.5 bWAR for his career and has a pretty good shot to be a first ballot Hall of Famer.
I’m pretty sure 30 teams would line up for the chance to grab a “Greinke” type pitcher.
I know he won a Cy Young, but back then he was a bit like Blake Snell-Cy Young season sandwiched between multiple pretty ugly campaigns with bloated ERA’s.
Greinke is nowhere near a 1st ballot HOFer. He’s not even a HOFer.
Roy Halladay went in first ballot with far fewer strikeouts and generated far less WAR, but had a little better career ERA and 2 Cy Youngs.
Tom Glavine went in first ballot having generated only 3 more WAR then Greinke, had over 300 fewer strikeouts, but had a second Cy Young and a near identical career ERA.
Mike Mussina generated 5 more WAR, but has no Cy Youngs, 100 fewer strikeouts and had a notably higher ERA. He got in on the sixth try.
Whether Greinke is a first ballot guy, who knows. I said he had a good chance and he does. But questioning whether he gets in is laughable.
Classic – He’s got a decent shot at the HOF.
Look at the awards voting ….
Top 8 for Cy Young 5 times (won the award once)
4th for ROY
MVP votes 3 times
Silver Slugger 2 times
Gold Glove 6 consecutive years
The guy did it all …. pitched well, hit well and fielded well.
Now compare him to Moose ….
Moose has a career 3.68 ERA and 1.192 WHIP in 3,563 IP
Greinke has a career 3.49 ERA and 1.171 WHIP in 3,389 IP
Fever –Mussina also pitched in the A.L. East his entire career right in the middle of the steroid era.
Greinke pitched the biggest chunk of his career in the N.L. where he faced pitchers hundreds, if not thousands, of times. That helped his career stats quite a bit. To me, he’s one of those ‘good not great” pitchers.
For anybody – not you – to imply he’s a 1st ballot HOFer is patently absurd. He’s a veteran’s committee candidate, at best.
Grenke is in. You are out! Boggs has spoken.
You are blocked!
Baseball – I agree with you he’s not first ballot.
One other thing to consider, Moose had far more Run Support (2,582) than Greinke (2,327).
These all-time rankings are prior to Greinke’s final season:
Most times a pitcher has gone 6+ IP, with 0-1 runs allowed, and his team lost
Pitcher Years Games Career Starts Percentage
Zack Greinke 2004-2023 38 516 7.36%
Don Sutton 1968-1988 35 756 4.63%
Tom Glavine 1988-2008 32 682 4.69%
Nolan Ryan 1968-1993 31 773 4.01%
Tommy John 1965-1988 29 526 5.51%
Justin Verlander 2006-2019 28 482 5.81%
Felix Hernandez 2006-2019 28 418 6.70%
Jim Bunning 1957-1971 27 519 5.20%
Max Scherzer 2008-2022 27 423 6.38%
Roger Clemens 1986-2007 26 707 3.68%
Not only does he have the most such starts, his percentage of such starts is about 75 percent higher than other top pitchers.
Fever- In some pretty good company there. He was a heck of a pitcher, just don’t see him as a HOFer, more a fringe guy.
I think a big reason Mussina was voted in was due to pitching in the AL East his whole career – which featured excellent, championship teams like the Yankees and Red Sox – during the known steroid era. Helped a lot despite “fringy” career numbers.
We’ll see what happens with Greinke.
Being an Ace on the Royals must have been brutal. I do remember him having pretty bad run support on the Dodgers even though that was a good team. Anecdotal memory at best.
With Luzardo, it’s pretty simple – in 2022 and 2023 when he was finally healthy, he was very good. Far from mediocre. Before that, he was very young and injury prone, and never had a full year.
Last year he was terrible, and the injuries came back. Too risky in my opinion. But when he is healthy, he’s shown to be a strong number 3. Not a TOR guy though.
Grienke almost hit 3000 K’s and has over 200 Wins, Grienke is a border line hall of famer. Luzardo hasn’t shown anything that suggest he is comparable to Grienke.
Yes but I’m referring to pre trade Greinke and how Luzardo is perceived, not his actual stats.
Potential over production. I think those moves flame out more often than not. He has had one amazing season and he’s cheap. Besides Burnes there is nothing better in free agency. If they traded him after 2023 people would have been drooling over him.
Last wk things rly heated up. Soto fried adames tucker… this wk mlb is asleep like a bear in hibernation. The biggest news is a 35 yr old japanese pitcher signed a 1 y deal
Are tms & agents busy christmas shopping??
Lfg mlb!!! We want some action
It was a wild ride.
I think we may be in for a dry spell with Burnes, Bergman, Hernandez, Santander going later and after the new year
I totally forgot about akil baddoo.
he’s only 26, but has done nothing in the league so far.
I really want to see him a better team who will use him, and I hope he can stay healthy.
I remember how good he was supposed to be when the tigers first got him.
Wish him the best.
He is one BADoo man.
Akil baddoo is not a bad dude
My toddler named his bunny doll Badoo Buddy.
Akil Badoo made diving catches on what should’ve been routine outfield plays. I doubt Detroit keeps him. He can’t hit and barely can play LF and has never improved any part of his game.
I hope he isn’t reading this right now!
@wade
Hes shaking in his boots reading this.
Skip if finally out and the Marlins are back to their usual horrible off-season antics. Why they need to trade Luzardo? I don’t know
They need to trade everyone worth getting a decent return for or they will never be any good.
The last thing the Cubs need is another lefty starter. Luzardo makes sense for the Orioles but they probably don’t want another lefty starter from the Marlins after the Rogers debacle. Mariners could use a lefty starter but they would need to trade someone first. Twins need a lefty but who knows what they are doing.
A good manager will set up a rotation of pitchers that complement each other. A team can use extra left handers, at least one soft tosser and sometimes a pitch-to-contact type pitcher in the rotation. They can’t all be dominant hard throwers. Batters adjust.