As the offseason continues, here are three things we’ll be keeping an eye on around the baseball world throughout the day today:
1. What will the Cubs do with Bellinger?
The biggest news of the weekend was the Cubs and Astros completing a blockbuster deal that sent outfielder Kyle Tucker to Chicago. While the deal added a bona fide star bat to the lineup on the north side, the trade also stands to further complicate the club’s outfield logjam. While it’s at least theoretically possible that the Cubs could push Michael Busch to third base and start Bellinger at first, Busch has not shown himself to be capable of handling the hot corner and the Cubs have top prospect Matt Shaw seemingly poised to take over the position as soon as Opening Day 2025.
What’s more, Chicago was reportedly “determined” to move either Cody Bellinger or Seiya Suzuki even before adding Tucker to the mix. Now that Tucker is in the fold, it’s nearly impossible to imagine the club not dealing Bellinger (or, at least, another hitter) before Opening Day. The Yankees have been the team by far most frequently connected to Bellinger, but it appears the two sides could be in a standoff regarding the financial terms of a trade.
2. What’s next for the Astros?
On the other side of the trade, the Astros landed a haul of talent in exchange for Tucker. Isaac Paredes seems poised to take over for Alex Bregman at third base should Bregman sign elsewhere in free agency, while Hayden Wesneski bolsters the club’s rotation depth and Cam Smith immediately became the Astros’ consensus top prospect. Questions still remain regarding the club’s plans for the remainder of the offseason even aside from the possibility of a Framber Valdez trade. They’ll need to add to the outfield after losing Tucker, and finding help at first base will be necessary as well. If Bregman were to return to Houston or if the Astros were to acquire Nolan Arenado, Paredes could slide over to first. Barring that, it’s possible the club could pursue a hitter such as Christian Walker, in whom they’ve previously shown interest.
3. A’s continue making moves:
The nomadic Athletics have continued to make moves in the aftermath of their departure from Oakland, following up their signing of right-hander Luis Severino with a trade for lefty Jeffrey Springs this weekend. The club’s recent moves have added a hefty amount of payroll to the A’s ledger, though the club figures to add even more talent to the roster (and money to the books) as they look to avoid a potential grievance from the players’ union regarding their use (or lack thereof) of revenue sharing dollars.
A’s GM David Forst indicated that while an additional rotation arm to pair with Severino and Springs could be in the cards, the club is currently hoping to add a third baseman. While it would be a shock to see a player like Bregman decide to spend the next few years in West Sacramento, there are a number of lower-level options like Jorge Polanco or Yoan Moncada who could find the promise of everyday playing time with the A’s attractive. A trade for Philadelphia’s Alec Bohm would also add an established bat and bump the payroll a bit further north, and the acquisitions of Severino and Springs would make it easier for the A’s to deal some optionable rotation depth.
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Ten banana cream pies!
There really aren’t any bad one year contracts. I think they should keep Bellinger. He’s a quality player with a high ceiling. He lets counsell play matchups and have a super flexible lineup.
The playing time per position goes something like this:
RF: Tucker 80%
Bellinger 20
CF PCA 90
Bellinger 10
LF Happ 85
Suzuki 15
1B Busch 50
Bellinger 50
2B Hoerner 65
Busch 35
SS Swanson 95
Hoerner 5
3B Shaw 80
Hoerner 20
DH Suzuki 80
Tucker 15
Bellinger 5
C Amaya 50
Kelly 50
They can play matchups a bit and have great depth in case of injury.
They still have plenty of cap space for pitching.
I completely agree. They are well under the luxury tax threshold. If they trade Triantos/canario + for someone like Luzardo they just got a potential front of the rotation arm that is budget friendly. Then you still have money to add another bullpen arm. I have yet to see an article that has said Jed must stay under the luxury tax. It might depend on whether he went over last year.
My brain just melted on this….
Busch playing 2B? Bad idea. They have no need for Bellinger. Id much rather they spend the money on pitching.
He plays second depending on who’s pitching.
There’s still money for pitching.
Aaron: You’re choices for DH add up to 200%.
I think Amaya and Kelly are supposed to share catching duties.
So I guess Caissie and Alcantara both get 0% at all positions in 25.
Yep. Sucks to suck.
Probably not unless there are injuries, which are not uncommon.
Bellinger doesn’t have a true 1-year contract. He has a $25M player option for 2026. That’s part of the reason why the Cubs are having trouble moving him. He was overpaid for his production in 2024. It’s possible he could be overpaid for 2 more years.
You would have a Gold Glove right fielder like Tucker play 80% ?? Cleasrly you don’t understand how good Tucker is.
I completely know how good he is, which is why I’d want to get him off his feet every 5th day, and put him at DH. I would want him rested and injury free. He’d be in the lineup 95 percent of the time in my scenario, while in the outfield 80 percent of the time.
Too many moving parts.
We can argue that Busch is better than Bellinger right now in WAR. So removing PA from Busch makes little sense.
Tucker is a 5+ WAR player. If you give him a DH day it should be for Suzuki not over paying a 4th OF.
The clear need is a IF that can play 3B if Shaw struggles. Mocina makes sense for Jed right now as he plays 3B and 2B and both are weak positions going into spring. If Shaw just proves that it is his gig then Mocina becomes a solid bench player.
Cody needs to be traded. If Cashman is being a b***** move to the next team
A’s should use some revenue sharing money to extend Brent Rooker,
Yay, Sacramento A’s!
A’s GM hinted at an extension coming up. Looks like they are still negotiating.
Astros got a haul for Tucker????? Really?
@billy
I wouldn’t say a “haul”
But they did get some pretty good players :3
They got what they needed to be competitive. I am surprised they traded him because he really is their star and he is in his prime. The Astros should be able to be a contender. I like it for the Cubs because they really dealt from depth.
@Goose
I like this move for the Astros, you don’t need to pay tucker, plus you get a new 3rd baseman, and cam smith, who can play both 3rd or left, probably left if Isaac stays at third.
I don’t think Dubon is very good.
And then the cubs get one of the best outfielders in the game, for what seems to be decently cheap.
They get “one of the best outfielders in the game” for exactly one season. Stros did a very nice piece of work in that deal.
Fair trade all around, hurt to give up Smith, but for Tucker only feeling one of the pieces in the package and the most recent one at that can live with.
seamaholic: Unless the cubs made the deal hoping to sign Tucker to an extension.
Come on avenger. If that’s the case, then Hoyer is going to be very disappointed because Ricketts isn’t going to pay 400M and I also can’t imagine Tucker not testing the market being this close and especially after seeing what Soto got.
It’s a win win for sure if Tucker comes to love the Cub franchise and his teammates and they can extend him.
I hated to lose Smith for i believe he’ll be the real deal .Love Isaac, but he’s a better fit in Houston’s park. Bully for him, I think he’s a fine young man.
People can dump on the Ricketts non stop if they so choose, but they’re not stupid. Tucker is a guy you open the checkbook for and i don’t believe they’d have made this trade if they weren’t willing to pay him. The question is how much past $400mm will they need to go?
Natural- So you’re saying it was a GOOD idea to trade 3 guys and pay him 400 million for a guy you could have just paid 400 million for next year, WITHOUT the players? Are you Santa Claus?
And if Smith falls on his face, as top prospects sometimes do….you basically traded you’re best player in Tucker for Paredes…..and that’s a steal for the Cubs…even as a rental……
It’s the Christmas season.
If they in fact let Bregman go, they got an average 3rd baseman to replace him which is a downgrade, a maybe/might be prospect (highly touted but these kinds of players have failed before), and a throw in for their best player……..if you think that’s a “nice piece of work” then so be it but you’d find many who disagree…..
Agree, but there’s no way Tucker isn’t going to test free agency to determine his “true” value and we know his agent feels the same way….he’s not signing any extension in or out of the season with the Cubs without testing the waters……
There is little chance Tucker doesn’t go Free Agency after 2025. The Cubs have a track record of not extending contracts. And the lure of being the top bat in Free Agency will compel his agent to push him to break the bank.
NO way he’s signing an extension….his agent simply wouldn’t allow it and how might the Cubs determine his true value without him testing the free agent waters…..he may love his teammates, love Chicago pizza, marry a Wrigley but he isn’t going to sign before he knows what other teams with great teammates, great pizza and chicks galore has to offer him in CASH!
That would have given the Astros all season to try to work out an extension. You have to hope they don’t and then you have to throw your hat in the ring as just another team among the dozens of teams trying to sign him in 2026.
This way, you get one of the best players in baseball for the 2025 season in what will likely be his best season yet, and you have exclusive rights to try to extend him all year long, and if he insists on testing FA, he just played a season at the Friendly Confines and if you come anywhere close to the best offer, you have a much better chance at signing him.
In exchange for two guys who haven’t quite worked out at Wrigley and one prospect who was playing college ball less than a year ago.
We will find out in 2-3 years on Cam Smith. The immediate question is Paredes. He played poorly for the Cubs. If the Astros get more out of him, I’m fine the trade. Prospects are always question marks.
You don’t think Dubon is “very good” ?? He played every position except pitcher/catcher last season, and played them all well. He is a Gold Glove Utility player
Wesneski was in that deal too and the Astros pitching coaches will work their magic on him to make him a regular part of the rotation. Witness the Kikuchi turnaround after they got him from the Blue Jays.
Goose, the Cubs don’t have a 3B now and they traded away their best prospect at that position too to get Tucker who plays a position they didn’t have a need at.
They got one really good player, Cam Smith. Parades may do well in the Juice Box, but he’s nothing special and Wesneski throws batting practice to lefties.
The whole Bellinger thing is getting old. Another brilliant Hoyer move. Pure genius.
@Uncle
You don’t like bellinger? he’s been pretty good for the cubs.
I didn’t mind them re signing him. However right before ST and to get the deal he got AND all the power in the deal? C’mon.
@Uncle
That’s understandable.
There’s one thing we know about Jed, That if there’s a way to make a player hard to trade Ole Jed will find it. You can tell by his email address, ” UcanhoseoleJed.com.
There were Cubs fans clamoring for Jed to give Bellinger $200 million. When they got him for $80 and he had a mediocre year all those fans turned into critics.
Well I didn’t see one smart fan clamor to give him 200 million ever so that’s a complete lie. When nobody signed him I thought they should bring him back for 1 year, Maybe a club option for 2 Because Boras and Bellinger had lost all the negotiating power and we all know what happened. But the Cubs might want to hold on to Bellinger because when Tucker walks after this year they might want him back after it all turns to mud.
The words Genius and Hoyer have never been said in the same sentence before. In a division that’s been winnable he’s done nothing and now in the last year of his contract he makes an effort to keep his job.
Per Fangraphs, even after the additions of Tucker, Kelly, Boyd, etc, the Cubs are $42mm under the tax threshold. Screw the Yankees. Let Counsell use his skills to fit Bellinger’s bat in the lineup as best he can. It’s a much longer lineup with Belli in there. Take turns benching PCA and Busch against tough lefties, make if work.
You don’t know what kind of player Cam Smith is going to be…..Gleyber Torres is a great example…teams were falling all over themselves to sign/trade for him….candidate for ROY….and take a look now at what you have……a average MLB ballplayer with a $.10 cent baseball head…..Paredes is average at this stage too and Wesneski is a 5th starter/innings eater at this juncture…….they traded their best player, who they probably could have re-signed once his value was determined, for these guys….all in the perspective I guess….
I saw almost every game Smith played for the Cubs except his mini trial in the Arizona Complex League. He destroyed baseballs everywhere he went while playing a more than passable 3B. He certainly gave off the impression of being worth keeping to find out. Unless you’re Hoyer who now had a shiny bauble he couldn’t wait to trade for a rental.
chem- Ehhhhhh wrong answer Hans.
Yes. Keep Bellinger. Who knows how PCA and Busch will handle the sophomore jinx? Most of the speculation on Bellinger’s value to the team presupposes that all of his teammates perform as expected, but that never happens. And you can be sure someone gets hurt. Bellinger is a winning player: he’s a five-tool player in his prime.
Chem- Yep I’m a 68 year old kid. Nice try. Ehhhh wrong answer again Hans. You like being wrong don’t you? LMAO
Cam Smith has played a handful of games in low level A,A+ and AA. Looks quite good there, but nothing special.
Paredes will be fine in Houston, and I will watch with interest as the pitching coaches at Houston turn Wesneski’s career around.
That is flat out stupid talk Aussie Astro. Cam Smith is the main piece in that trade
Absolute haul ! They got their new best prospect who will be clearly better than any competition pick for Tucker. Another player with a proven MLB track record and form top prospect and a potential back end rotation piece with an option in exchange for 1 season of Tucker
Excellent work by Houston front office !
Cam Smith has a chance to be really good. But he’s a prospect. Personally, I prefer to take a wait and see approach. Cam is going into his 2nd season in minor league ball.
It’s a good deal overall. Paredes should be good for maybe a 2.7 bWAR * 3, while they only gave up a 5 bWAR player, plus an arb pick. And that doesn’t count a #6-type pitcher and a solid prospect.
But just as importantly, as Goose mentioned, this keeps them competitive and allows them to sneak under the CBT cap AND still have a chance at coming in 1st. I’d liken this to what Preller did last year. Reset and compete.
The reason that worked with the Padres last year is they found Profar and he performed like a good player while making 1 million last year. I wouldn’t count on recreating that strategy.
They got a real good prospect, a solid major leaguer and some rotation depth for a year of a guy who has all but said he isn’t going to sign an extension. It’s maybe not reflective of Tucker’s talent when you take the contract stuff out of the equation but it’s still pretty decent. As a Jays fan, I can only hope the Jays can get something similar if Vlad decides not to sign.
When Cam Smith spends 6+ years crushing the ball folks will consider this a steal.
@Halos
that’s a big “if”
Kid absolutely destroyed the ACC then put up a slugging percentage that starts with a 6 in the minors last year.
Theres no guarantee but I really like the kid and really hoped the Angels would take him last draft.
@halosheavenjj. Still like moore. He had a hot start. His injury could’ve been the reason why he started slumping. Plus he faced some really good pitchers in the sec.
Moore has looked good so far.
Outside of the Troy Glaus years third base has been a problem here. I think Smith would’ve solved it.
And the Angels are seriously lacking in power, which Smith provides.
So are the Cubs. Now.
@halosheavenjj. Moore might make it to third. Second base just makes more sense now. Hopefully Washington is attached to his hip working on his defense. Rengifo is a free agent, and Rendon might get cut next year.
If Moore is ticketed for third, then choosing Smity over Moore makes even more sense.
Moore’s draft profile says second or left field with lots of doubles. And it’s looking like that will be the case.
@halosheavenjj. Yeah he played 3rd sparingly in college. Perry said right after selecting him he wants Washington to work with him. Also I think the defense thing is overblown. Watched him play about 10 games for the trash pandas, and it wasn’t bad. Who knows what the plan is, but 2nd and 3rd could be open. I think they move rengifo at the deadline if they can’t re-sign him
Pretty good haul for a one and done player…yes.
Oh it’s pretty far out. He’s said repeatedly that he wants to test the market and he’ll be the #1 or #2 position player on the market next year.
A one and done player coming off an injured season, no less.
His health will be fine. And he has the same agent as Dansby Swanson. If you think Hoyer didn’t have conversations with him about their amenability to a long term deal with the Cubs before this trade, you don’t know business. No way he makes this move if there was no hope of a future deal. May not happen, but I’ll bet the door is open.
There is zero chance of an extension. However it doesn’t mean he won’t resign in Chicago.
I wouldn’t say zero, but yep, doubtful. But they’ll talk a lot about it in spring training (when the Cubs do most of their groundwork- per Jesse Rogers and others). I think they’ll have a real shot after the season.
He cannot have conversations about that while Tucker was still the employee of another team. Called tampering. Against the rules. Frowned on.
Tucker has been clear for a year that no extension was coming. The Soto and other deals this offseason coming in so far above what anyone thought possible seals the deal. Tucker will go into free agency.
The Cubs can re-sign him in free agency by bidding as high as other teams and convincing him Chicago is the place to be.
Do you see the Ricketts okaying a 10-11 year deal with an AAV of at least $30 million, maybe more, maybe much more?
Best, SHHHHHHH! Let them think they understand what is going on.
As long as they write the biggest check. It almost always comes down to the almighty dollar!
His injury was a freak accident, nothing to do with his general health or fitness.
Chem – let us know what other players the Cubs have ever signed to an extension for the kind of money Tucker will command.
None.
Great, now convince Cubs ownership to spend that money.
@chem
You just made $400 mil sound like nothing. I think Trout and Judge are the only other guys over that number, aside from Ohtani and Soto.
chemfinancing
“…I almost guarantee you it will be a contract less than 400 mil”
I’d say you’re wrong.
Based on bWAR, Tucker is about 2/3s as valuable as Soto. If Soto is worth $765M, Tucker should be worth 2/3s of that, which is slightly over $510M.
I almost guarantee it will be at least $400M, and the bidding could take it north of $450M. Multiple teams with deep pockets will be bidding up the price. No way any team gets him for under $400M.
What’s more, Tucker can actually field (Gold Glove), has a rocket arm and steals bases, all of which Soto fails at.
Judge was 9/360.
Tucker is going FA. Cubs not a franchise who give big extensions. Especially when it’ll cost them $200m+.
Yes….its as far out there as possible….he’s going free agent to find his value……
Come on braves seiya would be the absolute perfect player to shore up our outfield situation! De la Cruz and Capel won’t do it!
I think that de La Cruz signing might be scary good ! When talented players find talented organizations sometimes amazing things happen !
Big whiffa: Or it could be Kelenic 2.0.
After seeing De la Cruz here in Pittsburgh for half a season, I have to wonder about your thinking. Maybe a change of scenery and real hitting coach will help but boy, he sure strikes out a lot
Big whiffa is a big whiffa on most of his posts but the community is here to give his posts the attention big whiffa so richly deserves. Whiffa is a compiler. He has 66.6 mlbtrWAR across 18 seasons.
We need to get him on Pirates threads then.
He’d be batting cleanup
My point exactly. He’s only played for Pittsburg and Miami. Be interesting to see what a competent franchise can do with him. Maybe nothing, but worth a flyer….
Y’all are too kind lol
Braves: Have you seen Suzuki play the OF? He’s Soto without the bat.
That’s not true at all. He’s a slightly below average fielder with a solidly above average bat. Stop being dramatic.
Catuli Carl. Agree about him being a solid bat. Between him and Bellinger, I think Suzuki would be the far better acquisition. I can understand why the Cubs would rather move Bellinger, but Suzuki would be much easier, but less than ideal.
Catuli: I live in Chicago. I get to see all 162 cub games. I stand by my dramatic comment.
Yeah, he has really slipped in the field, especially this past year. He was almost unplayable at times.
The thing is that we need an outfield bat, not an outfield fielder! We can definitely sacrifice some defense for some offense in the outfield! And I can say this much, he’s still a better fielder than ozuna, so we can keep him at dh for practically anyone we get to man the outfield!
If Alec Bohm can keep doing what he’s doing, I think he would be a good fit for the royals :3
or perhaps…the mariners?? :3
The A’s can have Candelario for a song. One verse, no royalties needed.
@this one
Candelario is such a weird and interesting player.
I advise you look at his savant page.
absolutely no red XD
Man that would be a dream for reds ! Use those funds on Robert and Naylor and reds are legit contenders
Those comments Tampa made about Boyle are very interesting too ! TOR potential….well, they aren’t wrong
Boyle’s problem was control/walks. The way the Rays develop pitchers, if they get that under control…oh yeah.
The Cubs are in a great position. I figured once they dealt for Tucker they would move Bellinger. If they are smart they hold out until the Yankees meet their price. They don’t have to deal him and he is a perfect fit for the Yankees/
It all depends on how much the Yankees want to eat on Bellinger’s contract. I think the Cubs snagging Tucker gave them leverage over the Yankees. Cody would solve a few of the Yankees’s problems so they’ll have more pressure to get a trade done I think.
By getting Tucker they lost leverage for any trades of Bellinger/Suzuki. Now every other team knows they need to move someone. Before they could pretend they might keep their players if they don’t get what they want.
Wade: The cubs did this to themselves by signing him to a Please Don’t Leave Us contract. It’s the cubs that are going to have to eat the biggest slice of Bellinger’s contract.
Bingo! The Wild Ride wins the point!
I think the Cubs snagging Tucker gave them leverage over the Yankees.
===============================
Or the NYY now know that the Cubs HAVE to move Belli unless they move Busch to 3rd, which I doubt.
So right now, Belli would start at 1st and Busch at 3rd correct ? Cubs may keep him til Shaw is ready.
Yankees will eat the whole contract. Cubs won’t get much in return but if they could pry out a bullpen piece from yanks
Yankees are the only customer though. They have all the leverage. Belli is well underwater. That player option in 2026 just kills his value.
@seamaholic Kind of contradictory statement. Either they have all the leverage with an underwater contract or they don’t. The Yankees are capable of moving on from Bellinger.
YBC, the Yankees have talked with Alonso, Walker, and Santana on the FA market and have talked to teams other than the Cubs about trades. They have options.
On the other hand, the Cubs have few options other than to trade Belli. His contract is way upside down and they have no where to play him without trading or moving someone to another position that is more valuable than he is.
The OF is Tucker, PCA, Happ. The Cubs may have to move Suzuki as well since he is so unhappy being a DH. Regardless of the Cubs fanbpoys saying it, they are not moving Busch to 3B to accommodate Belli. Busch’s defense at 3B is atrocious. ALL of the guys I just mentioned were better than Belli last season.
So either the Cubs play Belli at DH and then have him opt in for 2026 or they eat some of his contract and trade him. The more they eat, the better the prospects they get in return.
That brings up the question, what do the Cubs need? Pitching, mostly bullpen.
So Cubs eat $10 million if Belli opts out and $26 million if he opts in, about half of what he is owed if he opts in, and get a package of something like Will Warren, Yoendrys Gomez, and Kyle Carr. Two MLB ready pitchers outside the top 100 and a lottery ticket.
For a player that had a 2.2 WAR last season and 2.7 WAR average the last 3, the Cubs cannot expect more than that.
Or, the Cubs can insist that the Yankees take on all of Belli’s contract, salaries that will cost the Yankees about double with the CBT fines, and get back something like relief pitchers Harrison Cohen and Zach Messinger.
When you have a player who declines to opt out it typically means there is no more money to be had or less money by doing so. In otherwords either 0 or negative trade value. I doubt the Yankees pick up the entire tab.
They can’t just keep him until Shaw is ready, the few teams interested will have moved on by then. Plus if he gets injured or slumps out of the gate no one would take him anyways
Bwahahaha! You haven’t seen Busch play 3B, have you? He makes Bohm and Devers, God bless his lead feet and glove, look positively Gold Glovish.
Supposedly it’s only 10 million that’s the holdup. Just meet in the middle and get it done.
Dave Dombrowski enjoys these morning updates or he would otherwise have no idea what is going on in major league baseball.
I once watched Dave Dombrowski drink 37 beers then eat an entire spiral ham. That man is an animal and he is lucky to still be alive.
Wade – I see what you did there! 37 backwards is 73, the number of beers that a certain third baseman drank on a cross-country flight (not counting the additional 34 beers he drank directly before and after the flight).
I don’t know what you are talking about. I am a devout Christian and known teetotaler. Dombrowski is a degenerate and I in no way took part in or condone his animalistic behavior. We did not set a fire in that brothel. We did not attempt to ride a dog like a horse. Those stories are fabrications.
If I’m Cubs a package Suzuki, Brown, and a decent prospect for Castillo. Then maybe trade bellinger for bullpen help but they may need belli until Shaw is ready !
Cubs are looking like legit contenders for a long period of time. Well done on the mini rebuild
Oh and give Tucker his 400 million. Let him be face of franchise for this next season of relevance
@big
10 years 400?
Big whiffa: I doubt one of the players Seattle would want is Suzuki. It would either have to be someone else or in addition to.
If I am the Mariners, I’d be glad to do that. I’d go so far as to suggest it might be a slight overpay by the Cubs, but in a strategic kind of way.
They ain’t trading Brown. Suzuki and Brown is an overpay.
How is Suzuki and brown and overpay for a reliable good starting pitcher
Castillo is getting paid like a good reliable starter. Is he slightly underpaid, probably.
I think brown alone is worth more than Castillo. Suzuki contract has surplus value too. I can’t see the cubs making that trade. The Cubs dilemma is Bellinger is a good baseball player but he is guaranteed 30 + million for 2025 and isn’t a 30 million dollar player. He might be a 22 million dollar player. If they eat a bunch of money they should be able to get a player that can help them in 2025. I certainly wouldn’t eat a massive chunk and the prize is Will Warren.
Well there must be something idk about brown I’ll look into it, but the other problem with belli is that he’s overpaid for two years if he does poorly
Did I miss something on brown ? Why are cubs in on every pitcher if they have any confidence in him ?? From my perspective, if he’s not moved to pen, his value to the franchise will plummet bc he’s going to be like 8/9 in organization depth when Horton is ready
And to trade Suzuki for Castillo is close to even money. Cubs can spend all the money they want thou ! They operate close to no financial restrictions. They can keep Belli and add Castillo if they choose too and it not effect their decision making
Browns stuff is really good. He did very well before the injury. I think by 2026 he’s going to be in the rotation for good. He is not going to go from 50 innings to 175. Tailon has 2 years, Boyd 2 years and who knows how many innings he will give you. Adding another starter this year makes sense. There will be plenty of opportunities for Brown going forward.
Most prospects don’t pan out and every franchise has a couple flame throwers like brown who struggle with control.
I completely agree. Ben Brown has already shown the ability to pitch in the mlb. I have no clue if he can maintain it or be consistent enough going forward. What I saw from Brown last year, no chance I trade him. I feel the same way about PCA. He gets on base he is an absolute menace. His defense is absurd. I have no idea if he can be consistent enough at the mlb level but I’d sure like a chance to watch for a few years.
Why would the Cubs give up all that for Castillo?? Suzuki and Brown alone is too much.
At this point Belly is a complimentary piece, but is asking for stud money. No thanks.
I do think whatever is happening with Bellinger is happening soon. The Tucker trade pushes Cody specifically and respectfully it needs to be addressed. Whether that’s a trade or moving him to first, and Busch to 3rd.
When will the player’s association file a grievance against the White Sox? Talk about not spending, Reinsdorf is the poster boy.
Reinsdorf gets away with a lot, he’s a good old boys club member. Also, I think the fact that he announced he’s looking to possibly sell the team, he bought himself some time to keep tanking.
I think the Sox had the highest payroll in the Al central last year, which is mind blowing.
Across: That was a typical reinsdorf lie about selling the team to someone who will move it elsewhere. He’s thrown this I Want A New Stadium Or Else tantrum before.
Led: It wouldn’t surprise me. Now they just have to learn how to spend it wisely. But with the players they have, they’ll probably be the lowest spending team in baseball.
The White Sox don’t recieve revenue sharing and they have spent money, just very poorly.
Cubs don’t want to be stuck with Bellinger’s contract because they have already filled his position. They have to be betting on Yankee anxiety–which might be there. But if Yankees balk, where does that leave Cubs? Who else would take on that contract?
Cubs still have a whole in the infield they can fill w Belli
Nado manning the hot corner for the Stros? Framber’s grabbing another bag of peanuts were he opening the MLBTR site.
Cubs are better with Bellinger in the lineup, and they have plenty of prospects to trade for a starter this summer.
Keeping Bellinger and Tucker in the lineup is making a statement. All in for the ’25 season.
Any trade of Bellinger is playing the ’25 season conservatively with the sole intention of getting under the cap number.
So you think they should trade Suzuki?
No I think the Cubs should be ready to roll with Boyd and Assad. Bellinger and Suzuki.
Idk, play Shaw when he’s ready and he could be good enough to break camp. He could be better than belli by seasons end. Plus cubs have a couple other prospects that if their current trajectory continues – will need mlb playing time this season too. I agree there’s a whole, but not certain it’s a bad thing if they do trade him
How about a 3 way with Houston A’s and Mets.
A’s get Baty, McCormick and Megill
Houston gets Gilbert, Tidwell, Parada and Mauricio
Mets get Valdez and Mason Miller
A’s get a young 3b and OF
Houston reduces payroll plus adds 4 young players
Mets get pitching that they need
Lol Miller should not be in any trade scenario.
The Mets get Valdez AND Miller?
Lol no
Mets fan by chance?
It makes no sense to play Paredes at 1b. There are plenty of 1b out there the value Paredes brings is his ability to play 3b.
Unless they bring Bregman back. Other then that, Parades will be the opening day 3b
I have no interest in reading anything about the A’s. The players are playing for a sham team.
The AL West is interesting. A’s are improving, Houston might be coming back to the pack a bit, and we all know Trader Jerry will have something for us.
Texas still has a good team too. The AL is full of good not great teams
The Stros turned down a NYY package lead by Luis Gil and Will Warren. Would have bolstered their rotation. Instead they took the Cubs offer which only makes sense if they see Isaac Paredes as a top drawer 3B man, which I do not. And now the Yanks will offer Tucker a Soto-lite deal in the off season and get him next year anyway. Wacky.
No, the Yankees denied the ask of Gil.
You’re naive. The Yanks would have included Gil to get Tucker. A virtual no brainer considering:
1. Gil has a history of arm problems.
2. They had already added Fried.
3. They would have ponied up to keep Tucker in pinstripes (and still will).
“The Yanks would have included Gil to get Tucker.”
Not true. Reports say the Astros asked for Gil, and the Yanks weren’t willing to do that. Gil has 5 years of team control, Tucker only 1.
Having Fried doesn’t mean they can trade a pitcher. They traded Cortes already and don’t want to rely on Stroman. Rodon’s health is always a worry.
Tucker has let it be known that he will test free-agency. And, they would have kept Tucker in pinstripes the way they did with Soto?
The Yankees wouldn’t include Gil which is why the trade fell apart….your information is incorrect…..if they did, Tucker would be a Yankee right now…..time will tell if this was the right move but it was factually what actually happened…..
Factually and actually? Nice turn of phrase there. And coming from someone who was clearly involved in the actual, factual negotiations, even more estimable.
Gil isn’t good. He had one good month. Back of the rotation starters are a dime a dozen.
He is Rookie of the Year, and pitched amazingly until he exceeded what should have been a team-imposed innings ceiling. And it was for longer than a month. Provided no long term impact to over usage last year, Gil had the makings of an ace.
Why’s Chicago got so many players they can’t figure out where to put ’em? Just pick the best one, stick him out there, and tell the rest to hit the bricks. And what’s this talk of ‘financial standoffs’? You played for the team or not at all—no need for all this penny-counting nonsense!
It’s time to shine ninja cash! Find a way to add Belli and Hoerner. Won’t cost much if the Yankees take Belli‘s contract.
yankee fan with a word to cub fans: if tucker helps you go deep into the playoffs and then leaves it will be worth it. when your team is battling for the pennant you won’t be worrying about cam smith
The cubs were foolish signing bellinger so they have to pay the penalty
It’s not my money, but I don’t understand the Yankees’ position about Bellinger. I’ve heard that the Cubs have softened a bit. I’d do the deal if Chicago ate $10 million of salary and took Warren and another AAA prospect in return. That would bring Belli’s cost down to about $22 million annually, the going rate for that kind of MLB player. Barring that, just sign Santander for $100 million and stick him in RF – little difference between him and Soto defensively (HR and RBI totals are nearly identical) and you’re saving a boatload of money.
Bellinger is guaranteed $52.5 million. Why would the Yankees accept just $10 million? His contract would still be upside down. Why would they send any decent prospect if the contract is upside down?
Cubs eat $10 million IF Bellinger opts out after 2025. If he opts in, they eat an additional $16 million. Cubs get back Warren and a mid-level prospect.
If he opts out, he played well in 2025 and was worth Warren and another prospect.
If he opts in, he played poorly again and wasn’t worth the salary or the prospects.
Problem solved. Get it done.
1. Eat salary. Trade him.
2. Sign an OF. Jurickson Profar.
3. Doesn’t move the needle and still need to spend $20 million more or lose their revenue sharing checks. No more welfare for you John Fisher.
Yankees should take that salary. It’s 2 years, one if he opts out. Let Cody get a taste of the Judge protection.
The Phils trade Schwarber and Walker to the Cubs for Bellinger and Suzuki. Both teams improve, the salaries are compatible, and Suzuki helps the Phils land Sasaki. That was a pretty good day,
Let’s see if I can answer these questions
Cubs will trade Bellinger after eating much more of the contract than they want to because they don’t have any leverage. They have no place for him to play and his contract is very upside down. It will be a complicated trade because how much $$$ they end up paying will depend on whether he opts in or out after 2025.
The Astros will sign an OF that is a stopgap until Melton is ready. Someone like Bader or Profar. We would miss you Pro.
The A’s will keep spending through overpays on FA and trades for questionable talent or bad contracts until they are around $105 million. $17-20 million to go.
Pads Fans, I have some questions. At what point does the money the Cubs need to eat to move Bellinger become not worthwhile?
I see him worth about $15M-$17.5M. If I’m the GM of another team, and I acquire him with the Cubs eating $10M-$12.5M what kind of return would it be? I’m not sure I’d want to take on $15M-$17.5M and not offset some of that salary. And I’m not sure I’d want to spend much prospect capital on a guy making $15M -$17.5M who may not be good and opt-in for 2026.
I’m sure they’d let him go with all the money for zip in return, but is another team, willing to take on a guy who’s paid maybe $10M more than he’s worth?
And if I’m the Cubs I’d probably not want to eat more than $5M. But is it worth it to eat $10M or so, and have to take on some salary, or not get much back in prospects. At some point it would seem better to just hold on to him.
Jean, with Bellinger it depends on if he opts in to 2026 or opts out after 2025.
If he opts out after 2025 its because he played well enough that he thinks he can get more than $25 million guaranteed for 2026 and the Cubs would only need to eat around $8-10 total to get some mid-level but MLB ready prospects like Will Warren of the Yankees back.
If he opts in, anything less than half of the $52.5 million would not be enough, because opting in means he was mediocre to bad again in 2025 and the team that traded for him would be on the hook for another $25 million in 2026.
Over the last 3 seasons Bellinger has been less valuable than the Padres’ Arraez with no season topping Arraez’s best and people are freaking out that Arraez will get paid $14.7 million in 2025. Why anyone thinks Bellinger will be worth $52.5 million over the next 2 seasons is beyond me. He has negative trade value right now if the Cubs are not willing to eat a good size portion of his contract.
Bellinger is more valuable than Arraez based on his ability to field CF, a premium position, and the versatility to play 1B at a high level. He is probably worth more like $20m at the level of play he produced last year. That means he is something like $12m underwater just next year. The Yankees probably expect something between his 23&24 years if healthy making the $25m option a hopeful wash. That is why the reports say they are about $10m apart on negotiations.
Braaaack, wrong answer. But thanks for continuing to drink heavily.
1st, WAR takes into account positional adjustments. 10.1 for Arraez to 8.0 for Belli
2nd, the positional adjustment for CF where Belli has played the majority of his games (263) the last 3 seasons is almost the same as 2B where Arraez has played the majority of his games (217) the last 3 seasons. .
Over the last 3 seasons Belli has a -4 DRS in CF.
Over the last 3 seasons Arraez has a 4 DRS at 2B.
2.2 WAR is worth almost exactly $20 million. Which means that Belli is only $12.5 million upside down in 2025. If the Cubs eat that amount no prospects of value would be sent in return to the Cubs. It would be a wash.
But the reports, most of the talk coming from MLB’s Mark Feinsand, are that the Cubs are asking for prospects including Will Warren. Those reports also say they are $10 million apart, not that the Yankees only want $10 million.
I still think a deal will come together, but the Cubs have no leverage because they have no place to play Belli and added another, and much better, OF to the mix.
I disagree that he was worth $20M last season. In the current market 1 WAR is supposedly worth $7M-$8M. Bellinger had a 2,2 WAR last season. That means he was worth $15.4-$17.6M.
He had plus value in 2023, but he’s the epitome of inconsistency. His OPS+ is a virtual roller-coaster. His inconsistency combined with the opt-out, makes him a gamble. Every FA is a gamble, but he’s a bigger one. If I were the Yankees I wouldn’t budge off the $10M figure, plus I’d want more contingent on him opting in for 2026.
Pads, good reply, well thought out. We agree that he is worth $20m last year. I agree that the Cubs have zero leverage and should end up just getting salary relief. I have barely had a sip, I am on number 17, so just really warming up for my next flight. I still think a playable CF/OF/1B at 2 WAR will get more $ than a slow 2B/1B/DH at 2 WAR on the open market. Bellinger is $20m and Arraez is more like $15m.
Jean, for the 2023-2024 offseason, 1 point of WAR on the FA market cost $9.25 million.
The Yankees are not asking for $10 million, there is a $10 million difference in what the teams think the Cubs should pay. That is a major distinction.
Teams look at a combination of last season and the last 3 seasons and tend to hold any seasons with a major injury as an outlier rather than as the norm or what they can expect going forward.
Bellinger was not injured and had a 2.2 WAR. His 3 year average is 2.7 WAR, in line with what he had in 2024.
Arraez was injured in 2024, a thumb tendon tear that robbed him of what little power he has, and put up a 1.0 WAR. His previous 2 seasons were 4.9 and 4.2 WAR and his 3 year average is 3.3 WAR.
Arraez is a more valuable player but will not get paid nearly as much as Bellinger is under contract for. If Bellinger was a free agent I would not expect him to get a deal close to what he is currently being paid.
A 3 WAR 2B/1B/DH should get paid more than a 2 WAR CF/1B/DH.
I am REALLY hoping that the Padres are able to lock up Arraez through his age 33 or 34 season for something around $11-12 million AAV. That would be a nice Christmas gift for Padres fans.
As I showed, Arraez is just as good of a 2B as Belli has been a CF the past 3 seasons.
Looks like the Cubs took basically a nothing in return for paying very little to the Yankees. Poteet will be 30 in 2025 and has 83 career IP in the majors. He is a nothing.
The Yankees blinked and betweeen salary and CBT fines they will now pay $55 million in 2025 for Bellinger if he plays well and opts out or $95 million if he plays poorly again and opts in for 2026.
Agree. The Yanks blinked. I’m surprised that Cashman would take on so much risk.
Got desperate to get his guy Bellinger.
Bellinger did have an injury in 24. Messed up his ribs I believe. Yankees overpaid!
The problem with Arraez is his hitting style is outside of the norm. No power, no BB, no speed, pure contact. That has and will seriously affect his market.