MLBTR has looked at the potential markets for Juan Soto and Corbin Burnes in respective posts for Front Office subscribers. We'll continue that series with a look at the winter's #3 free agent.
Alex Bregman could land the largest contract for a non-Soto position player. MLBTR predicted the two-time World Series champ would get a seven-year pact valued at $182MM. Getting to seven years would distinguish Bregman from Matt Chapman, who would've been the offseason's other top option at third base had he not re-signed with the Giants for six years and $151MM. Bregman is a year younger and has a more consistent offensive track record, though he's not quite at Chapman's level defensively.
There have been a few small hints about how Bregman's market could shake out. Ken Rosenthal of the Athletic suggested last month that the third baseman's camp might look for a deal that resembles Manny Machado's 11-year, $350MM extension from Spring Training 2023 rather than general market projections of a contract in the $175-200MM range.
Bregman getting to $300MM+ would be a huge surprise, though. Machado was already guaranteed $180MM at the time of his extension, so that contract amounted to five years and $170MM in new money. The Machado deal also came at a time when the Padres were signing off on a number of huge contracts during Peter Seidler's ownership tenure.
USA Today's Bob Nightengale reported a few weeks ago that the Astros were hoping to retain Bregman on something like a six-year, $156MM pact. That hasn't gotten a deal done, so his camp seems to be aiming higher. At the time, Nightengale wrote that Bregman and his representation at the Boras Corporation were at least looking to crack the $200MM mark.
Let's take a look at what teams could be involved.
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gbs42
NPB 😉
swanhenge
Houston
1999 MLB All Star MVP
Not the Red Sox
energel
Damit I really wish I could see the rest of the article. Big Time bummer
Texas Outlaw
@energel it’s a few bucks a month, subscribe
The biggest tr0ll
When they have ads popping up all over the place and MLBTR redirects you to comments not even replying to your own… no thank you
Lindor's Bodyguard
10 cents a day.
Blackpink in the area
Astros or Jays. I really can’t see any other team that makes sense.
ericl
Detroit makes plenty of sense. He’d be an upgrade for them & his former manager AJ Hinch is there.
Blackpink in the area
The Tigers have Jung and Vierling for 3b. The Tigers need a shortstop far more than a 3b.
Pete'sView
Jung would move to first —if he can prove to hit. Vierling is nothing more than a utility guy. Bregman would be a great fit on Detroit.
Blackpink in the area
Why wouldn’t they just sign a 1b? Bregmans value is his ability to play 3b for a 3b needy team.
DirtyWater04
Bregman’s a nice player but let’s be real he has been a merely good rather than an elite hitter these last several years while watching his metrics creep downward over 3 straight seasons. He is also good defensively and from what I’ve heard, a positive in the clubhouse, so sure, factor in some value there. But I don’t trust him to have the type of longevity that would justify a gigantic contract like Machado’s.
At most I’d give him Matt Chapman money, though even that I wouldn’t feel great about. Most I’d be actually excited to acquire him at would be something like 5/$120 that starts out front loaded so it’s less costly to dump him if/when he becomes dead weight by the end of that deal.
Doesn’t sound like he’d go for that from what I’m reading, but I just don’t believe he is going to remain that good of a player on this side of age 30. Let somebody else take the risk.
HatlessPete
Bregman to the savannah bananas. You heard it here first!
Baseballisthebest
Mets, Phillies, Astros, Dodgers. In that order.
Mets move Vientos to 1B and move on from Alonso.
Phillies trade Bohm for OF or relief help.
Astros up their offer a bunch.
The Dodgers offer 8 years, $240 million with $100 million deferred.
DarrenDreifortsContract
Thanks but no thanks! We don’t sign cheaters.
steven st croix
JD Martinez and Mookie Betts say hello
DugoutJester
But you sign criminals… *sips coffee*
Gwynning
What about cheater’s interpreters, DD? Do you hire them?
DirtyWater04
The only one I can’t really see here is the Dodgers.
Lindor's Bodyguard
Zero chance to the Mets. Absolute stone cold zero. No chance. None.
outinleftfield
So when does he sign with the Mets?
ckc12537
The Athletics offer 1 year at $100 million with $99 million deferred
ericl
If the reports are true that Bregman is looking for a Machado contract, I pass on him no matter my need is. I’m a Jays fan & while we need a third baseman, I’m not giving him that contract.
outinleftfield
Consider the source.
Astros_fan_in_Aus
As an Astros fan I would be sorry to see him go, but the money he is seeking is way too high, especially considering his age.. Jim Crane is highly unlikely to give him what he wants, so it’s time to move on.
slider32
I think he takes a short term deal with a player option!
Anthony maresca
Bregman not getting $200 million or anything above $25 million avv
Old York
Guy’s offense is in decline. Whoever signs him is going to regret it.
towinagain
Hands down he goes to the Dodgers. Soto goes to the Dodgers next, Saaki will follow.
Fried will sign with the Dodgers, thinking January.
A Crochet trade is coming too.
Balk
Shoot, on top of that Judge is going to be traded to the dodgers along with Harper and Cole. And to throw an extra in there Freeman will get traded to the pirates for Skenes. Now they’re set! SMH
towinagain
Haha right?!
It’s crazy.
Pete'sView
towinagain —
And following that disgusting use of deferred money by the Dodgers, fans of other teams start watching lacrosse instead. Owners eat Manfred’s flesh.
Logjammer D"Baggagecling
Savanah Bananas
WSnotAstros2017
I don’t see them keeping Bregman. I do not see them keeping Tucker after this upcoming season either. Astros are not the deep money pockets of 300 to 600 million for players.
I see same team minus Bregman. Chas/Meyers/Tucker in the outfield. Chas and Meyers suck. Meyers is only good for D and not offense. Chas is a mixed bag. He was good a couple of seasons ago but still had his moments.
We need a bat in our lineup. I do not want to see Yordan at 2nd. or Tucker. Espada was stupid to put them there. Bregman too.
I think Bregman hurt his hads some years ago and has not been the same since. He is not worth a huge contract but Boras as his management.
Soto will have a 600 mill plus contract of maybe 12 to 15 years.
I think Seattle is looking at others. So Detroit may be only one left for possibly Bregman or Toronto.
Our pitching we have Brown, Framber, Arrighetti, and Blanco. Plus a few in the Minors who could join the rotation. Bullpen needs. If Pressly is sent out or not unsure. McCullers needs to go. Javier will be lucky if pitches this season. Garcia unsure of.
First Base Caratini and Singleton
Third Base: Dezenzo or Whitcomb until Matthews is ready
If do anything beyond that will be a big miracle
jbigz12
This is the year the Astros fall out. Great run but I think Valdez & Tucker are sold for a haul at the deadline.
gotigers68
Too many years, too much money. Detroit can do better. Maybe a trade ?