MLBTR has looked at the potential markets for Juan Soto and Corbin Burnes in respective posts for Front Office subscribers. We'll continue that series with a look at the winter's #3 free agent.
Alex Bregman could land the largest contract for a non-Soto position player. MLBTR predicted the two-time World Series champ would get a seven-year pact valued at $182MM. Getting to seven years would distinguish Bregman from Matt Chapman, who would've been the offseason's other top option at third base had he not re-signed with the Giants for six years and $151MM. Bregman is a year younger and has a more consistent offensive track record, though he's not quite at Chapman's level defensively.
There have been a few small hints about how Bregman's market could shake out. Ken Rosenthal of the Athletic suggested last month that the third baseman's camp might look for a deal that resembles Manny Machado's 11-year, $350MM extension from Spring Training 2023 rather than general market projections of a contract in the $175-200MM range.
Bregman getting to $300MM+ would be a huge surprise, though. Machado was already guaranteed $180MM at the time of his extension, so that contract amounted to five years and $170MM in new money. The Machado deal also came at a time when the Padres were signing off on a number of huge contracts during Peter Seidler's ownership tenure.
USA Today's Bob Nightengale reported a few weeks ago that the Astros were hoping to retain Bregman on something like a six-year, $156MM pact. That hasn't gotten a deal done, so his camp seems to be aiming higher. At the time, Nightengale wrote that Bregman and his representation at the Boras Corporation were at least looking to crack the $200MM mark.
Let's take a look at what teams could be involved.
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NPB 😉
Houston
Not the Red Sox
Damit I really wish I could see the rest of the article. Big Time bummer
@energel it’s a few bucks a month, subscribe
When they have ads popping up all over the place and MLBTR redirects you to comments not even replying to your own… no thank you
@Texas
Why should I give them money?
In the present day media landscape, people support the content creators that they want to see survive. And paying here means the ads go away.
An ad or two, not a problem. Four or five popping up and preventing me from posting or seeing my posts is a bigger problem
@femboy no ads, special content and it keeps the site alive
I’d rather donate to a good cause, thank you. I don’t need to pay more money into a story about Juan Soto making 600 million dollars. People do real things too. Give us a break with paying for everything for once and get rid of these terrible ads.
10 cents a day.
Astros or Jays. I really can’t see any other team that makes sense.
Detroit makes plenty of sense. He’d be an upgrade for them & his former manager AJ Hinch is there.
The Tigers have Jung and Vierling for 3b. The Tigers need a shortstop far more than a 3b.
Jung would move to first —if he can prove to hit. Vierling is nothing more than a utility guy. Bregman would be a great fit on Detroit.
Why wouldn’t they just sign a 1b? Bregmans value is his ability to play 3b for a 3b needy team.
Vierling put up 3.0 WAR last season in a lineup with limited protection. He plays above avg in corner OF spots and was drafted as an OF.
Jung played 2B most of college and switched to 3B his last season I believe. He came into college as a SS, which alot of players do.
But to put it quite simply the Tigers need provem veteran production in their lineup. With neither Jung or Vierling entrenched at 3B Bregman would be a clear upgrade. He also is said to get along very well with his former Manager Hinch.
He makes a ton of sense for the Tigers. Analysts and the media have been saying the same for months.
Bregman’s a nice player but let’s be real he has been a merely good rather than an elite hitter these last several years while watching his metrics creep downward over 3 straight seasons. He is also good defensively and from what I’ve heard, a positive in the clubhouse, so sure, factor in some value there. But I don’t trust him to have the type of longevity that would justify a gigantic contract like Machado’s.
At most I’d give him Matt Chapman money, though even that I wouldn’t feel great about. Most I’d be actually excited to acquire him at would be something like 5/$120 that starts out front loaded so it’s less costly to dump him if/when he becomes dead weight by the end of that deal.
Doesn’t sound like he’d go for that from what I’m reading, but I just don’t believe he is going to remain that good of a player on this side of age 30. Let somebody else take the risk.
Bregman to the savannah bananas. You heard it here first!
Mets, Phillies, Astros, Dodgers. In that order.
Mets move Vientos to 1B and move on from Alonso.
Phillies trade Bohm for OF or relief help.
Astros up their offer a bunch.
The Dodgers offer 8 years, $240 million with $100 million deferred.
Thanks but no thanks! We don’t sign cheaters.
JD Martinez and Mookie Betts say hello
But you sign criminals… *sips coffee*
What about cheater’s interpreters, DD? Do you hire them?
@darren
Oh the irony.
The only one I can’t really see here is the Dodgers.
Zero chance to the Mets. Absolute stone cold zero. No chance. None.
So when does he sign with the Mets?
The Athletics offer 1 year at $100 million with $99 million deferred
If the reports are true that Bregman is looking for a Machado contract, I pass on him no matter my need is. I’m a Jays fan & while we need a third baseman, I’m not giving him that contract.
Consider the source.
As an Astros fan I would be sorry to see him go, but the money he is seeking is way too high, especially considering his age.. Jim Crane is highly unlikely to give him what he wants, so it’s time to move on.
I think he takes a short term deal with a player option!
Bregman not getting $200 million or anything above $25 million avv
Guy’s offense is in decline. Whoever signs him is going to regret it.
He had 2nd best season of his career in 2023. His career year coming in 2019 with juiced ball like many others. Not to mention playing in a lineup that has had less and less protection each year.
So no his offense is not necessarily in decline.
@Tigers3232
While Bregman’s 2023 season was impressive on the surface, the trends in his 2024 performance reveal clear signs of decline, especially when evaluating the metrics that matter most for projecting future production. Here’s why the claim that “his offense is not necessarily in decline” doesn’t hold up under scrutiny:
Bregman’s struggles against fastballs in 2024 are undeniable. Posting a career-low .324 wOBA and negative run value (-2) against the pitch that constitutes over a third of his total plate appearances is not a fluke. Fastball performance is a critical predictor of a hitter’s ability to age well, and this drop raises legitimate concerns about his ability to sustain offensive production into his 30s.
Declining Plate Discipline
His 2024 walk rate (6.9%) was the lowest of his career, coupled with a career-high chase rate in the 82nd percentile. This marks a significant shift in his approach at the plate, leaning toward being more aggressive without the results to justify it. Plate discipline declines often accelerate with age, suggesting this could be the beginning of a long-term trend.
RVPG Regression
Bregman’s 2024 RVPG of .580 was his worst since 2017 (excluding injury-shortened years). This dip in offensive value underscores his declining ability to produce runs consistently. Even if you argue that 2023 was an anomaly, the 2024 season aligns with a downward trajectory in critical metrics.
Contextual Protection Argument
The assertion that Bregman’s performance is impacted by “less lineup protection” is overstated. Great hitters produce regardless of context; they drive offensive performance, not depend on it. Moreover, lineup protection as a concept has largely been debunked in modern sabermetrics. His decline is about his swing and approach—not who hits around him.
Comparison to Career Year (2019)
Yes, 2019 was his peak, but it’s misleading to dismiss all post-2019 decline as “expected regression from a juiced ball season.” By 2024, he’s not just failing to replicate 2019—he’s falling behind his baseline. Metrics like bat speed and run value against power pitching indicate age-related decline, independent of ball conditions.
I don’t expect much from him going forward and neither should the team that signs him.
He had a bone spur in his elbow. He missed time for it multiple times last season and just had surgery to remove it.
Yes a bone spur in a professional athletes elbow can hamper production. You like to exclude injury shortened years when referring to stats, yet you dismiss the injury he was out for multiple times in 2024 and that just required surgery. Makes a lot of sense….
@Tigers3232
Blaming injuries is an easy out, but it doesn’t fully account for the data we’re seeing. If the injury was truly the sole cause, we should expect Bregman to bounce back in 2025. But given his underlying trends—declining bat speed, fastball struggles, and plate discipline metrics—I wouldn’t bet on it. Injuries are part of the game, but they’re not a free pass to dismiss legitimate concerns about decline.
Those struggles weren’t there as recently as 2023. Which you dismissed as impressive on the surface, yet left it at that.
You can try and spin his injured elbow as an easy out. However it was a reality and the bone spur was there for most of the season. It’s easy to try and dismiss. But it was not a strain or sprain that one just heals from, it is something he had to deal with til his recent offseason surgery. And FYI he still had a pretty good year despite playing injured, which you so easily dismiss.
@Tigers3232
Ah, the “despite playing injured” defense—because clearly, we’re supposed to ignore all warning signs of decline when an injury is involved. Let’s get this straight: while 2023 was a superficially strong season, the cracks in Bregman’s performance started to show. His declining barrel rates, creeping chase rate, and struggles against power pitching weren’t random outliers; they were early indicators of a downward trend. Fast forward to 2024, and you conveniently pin all his struggles on the bone spur, yet fail to address the larger issue: aging hitters don’t magically recover their elite form post-surgery. If the injury was truly catastrophic, why did Bregman play 154 games? Teams don’t force players into full-time roles if their injuries severely compromise their ability to contribute. The “pretty good year” you so proudly champion looks far less rosy when you factor in his lowest wOBA against fastballs, declining walk rate, and career-high chase rate. These aren’t the marks of a hitter poised to bounce back but of one losing his grip on the skills that defined him.
You accuse me of “easily dismissing” his injury, but what you’re really doing is ignoring the broader context: this isn’t just about a bone spur—it’s about an aging hitter whose offensive production is eroding. Surgery might alleviate discomfort, but it won’t reverse the effects of age or repair his struggles against velocity and off-speed pitches. You’re so focused on defending his grit that you’ve blinded yourself to the larger picture. The truth is, Bregman’s decline is inevitable, and no amount of excuse-making will change that reality. If you prefer emotional appeals over hard data, that’s your choice—but don’t expect the rest of us to fall for it.
His career yr was 2019. I don’t attribute anything that did not equal juiced ball yr as decline.
So you recognize that he had a strong 2023. You also recognize that he had a bone spur in 2024,
Now I’m not going to unilaterally say it was all injury. Nor am I going to speculate it’s merely just decline. But as we both know as established above there are other factors at play here.
That said I do know he won’t hit like he did with a juiced ball or prior to that when he and others were being tipped off to pitches. I’m also aware any lengthy deal will likely see a big end with more meaningful decline.
Id say tho that it’s a reasonable assumption that he’s less hindered physically with the chunk of bone removed from his elbow. Should also help with training without the pain of that bone spur.
If anything I’d say the years with sign stealing and then the juiced ball year were superficially strong. Seems a little suspect those seasons which had extrinsic factors inflating stats are the outliers. Yet those are the seasons you are clearly using as peak and basing decline from? Do you not recognize how there’s an issue there???
He hasn’t 30 homers or batted over .270 since pre COVID. So yes his offensive numbers are declining.
Hands down he goes to the Dodgers. Soto goes to the Dodgers next, Saaki will follow.
Fried will sign with the Dodgers, thinking January.
A Crochet trade is coming too.
Shoot, on top of that Judge is going to be traded to the dodgers along with Harper and Cole. And to throw an extra in there Freeman will get traded to the pirates for Skenes. Now they’re set! SMH
Haha right?!
It’s crazy.
Then the Dodgers restructure Harper’s contract with $200 million in deferrals.
towinagain —
And following that disgusting use of deferred money by the Dodgers, fans of other teams start watching lacrosse instead. Owners eat Manfred’s flesh.
Or MLB is forced into a community initiative teaching the basics of finance….
Savanah Bananas
I don’t see them keeping Bregman. I do not see them keeping Tucker after this upcoming season either. Astros are not the deep money pockets of 300 to 600 million for players.
I see same team minus Bregman. Chas/Meyers/Tucker in the outfield. Chas and Meyers suck. Meyers is only good for D and not offense. Chas is a mixed bag. He was good a couple of seasons ago but still had his moments.
We need a bat in our lineup. I do not want to see Yordan at 2nd. or Tucker. Espada was stupid to put them there. Bregman too.
I think Bregman hurt his hads some years ago and has not been the same since. He is not worth a huge contract but Boras as his management.
Soto will have a 600 mill plus contract of maybe 12 to 15 years.
I think Seattle is looking at others. So Detroit may be only one left for possibly Bregman or Toronto.
Our pitching we have Brown, Framber, Arrighetti, and Blanco. Plus a few in the Minors who could join the rotation. Bullpen needs. If Pressly is sent out or not unsure. McCullers needs to go. Javier will be lucky if pitches this season. Garcia unsure of.
First Base Caratini and Singleton
Third Base: Dezenzo or Whitcomb until Matthews is ready
If do anything beyond that will be a big miracle
This is the year the Astros fall out. Great run but I think Valdez & Tucker are sold for a haul at the deadline.
Too many years, too much money. Detroit can do better. Maybe a trade ?
Home Depot, trash can department salesman.
Expert in the field.
These type of articles are so redundant. The same teams are listed in every category.
What will Tigers do with Baez?
Another opportunity or has that ship sailed?
Bregman, Adames and Corbin Burnes would all three be
great fits with the Tigers.
Chris Illitch should be spending some of his Dad’s money on those and similar players.
Soto is out of their reach.
But those 3 players added to Skubal and the young core the Detroit Tigers currently have would make them one of the favorites to win the AL Central Division.
Change of scenery and exchange of bad contracts deal.
Send Baez back to the Cubs for Cody Bellinger.
Could be other players in the deal also.
Baez could be rejuvenated in Wrigley Field with the team he helped win the World Series Championship and break the curse.
Bellinger could play CF, RF, LF, 1B and DH for the Tigers.
“Win/Win” trade.
There could be other players in such a deal on both sides…
If Baez can still play at the major league level, then this would be his best chance to resurrect his career.
Baez would be highly motivated not to embarrass himself in front of the fans where Baez had his greatest career moments.
If, Baez cannot play at this level anymore, then he could be a part time utility player/DH and transition to coaching role with the Cubs.
Baez will always be a hero to the Cubs faithful!