“The Reds have kicked the tires on” Josh Naylor and Lane Thomas in trade talks with the Guardians, according to Gordon Wittenmyer of the Cincinnati Enquirer. The Guards are known to be open to offers for either player, though there isn’t any indication that a deal with the Reds or anyone is particularly close. Wittenmyer’s use of the “kicked the tires” phrasing might hint that this was more of an exploratory check-in for the Reds than a serious push for either Cleveland player.
Cincinnati is known to be looking at outfield additions in particular, as president of baseball operations Nick Krall recently said that any new bat brought into the Reds’ fold would “most likely” be an outfielder. Thomas’ right-handed bat could be a complement for Jake Fraley or TJ Friedl (both left-handed hitters) in right or center field, though since the Reds’ budget may be pretty limited, Thomas’ $8.3MM projected arbitration salary is a little steep for what might ideally be a part-time role.
Thomas hit better with the Nationals (.253/.331/.407 in 341 plate appearances) than he did with the Guardians (.209/.267/.390 in 187 PA) last season, and the combined totals work out to a slightly subpar 99 wRC+. Thomas was worth 1.3 fWAR overall in his 130 total games, as public defensive metrics strongly disliked his right field glovework, and he was middling at best as a center field.
The Reds’ infield situation is both crowded and unsettled at the same time. On paper, Jeimer Candelario, Christian Encarnacion-Strand and Noelvi Marte are lined up at the top choices to see time at the corner infield slots and (probably moreso in Encarnacion-Strand’s case) at designated hitter. However, none of this trio hit well in 2024, plus CES missed most of the season due to wrist surgery, and Marte missed the first half of the season due to a PED suspension.
Adding Naylor’s big bat at first base would add a lot more certainty to this mix, and since Naylor is only under team control through the 2025 season, there would be plenty of time down the road for Encarnacion-Strand and Marte to develop into regulars in Cincinnati’s lineup. Naylor is coming off another quality season with the Guardians, hitting .243/.320/.456 with a career-high 31 homers over 633 PA.
Given the profiles of the two players, it is fair to speculate that the Guardians might be more willing to trade Thomas in a pure salary-dump type of move, whereas Cleveland would want a more prominent return in exchange for Naylor. As noted earlier, the Reds’ apparent lack of financial flexibility will make things tricky for Krall’s front office, so fitting Naylor’s projected $12MM salary might be an even greater challenge, even if Naylor offers more upside.
Naylor in that ballpark could be scary.
what is it about GAP that would improve his #s?
the dimensions are identical to Progressive Field
Statcast park factors show Great American at 142 for HR by left-handed hitters, compared to 96 for Progressive. And Savant says Naylor would have hit 27 HR had he played all his games in Cleveland last season, 37 in Cincinnati.
Thanks
Just curious, what ARE the park factors that would improve his HR totals by so much? RF is 325 ft in both parks.
Cincy & cleveland are only 250 miles apart. Weather conditions are similar. What makes these 2 parks so different from eachother?
Progressive has a steeper angle from the RF corner and is 379 before the actual alley (mid point of center and foul line). GAB has a truer alley, which is 370 before maxing out at 404 opposed to 410 at Progressive with 16 ft high walls in half the park.
There could also be typical prevailing winds advantages depending on the ballparks orientation versus the other, but that’s just conjecture.
I did not know that. I know they share a great spring training park, so it makes sense.
The ball seems to fly in Cincy. I’d the air hotter and/or more humid there?
It is humid and hot as the park sits down in the Ohio River valley.
Great insight BBB and no name <3
That would explain why Reds hitters like Willy Mo Peña and Adam Dunn crushed the ball so effortlessly when they played. Great insight on both ballparks thanks!
can we call it the aristides aquino effect?
Thomas I can see but I don’t see them ponying up for Naylor.
Pirates gonna to step up and block them from Naylor
Pirates will not cough up Skenes, Jones, Keller or prospect guys like Bubba Chandler, Ashcraft, Harrington, and Solometo for Naylor. Cleveland will want high end return and from what I read, pitching is their desire. They would want Jones and 2 of the 4 prospects for Naylor. Naylor is a free agent in 2026 and coughing up that much talent for a 1 year rental, is an easy no for the front office. Any other fan that thinks that trading years of controlled players, fair because of Naylor power contributions, have no purpose to be a fan of the Pirates or any MLB team. Moves like that will devastate an organization for years. For once, I would like to see some good baseball in Pittsburgh again. I am tired of these rebuilds and foolish trade/free agent signings that I have witnessed 30 years. They have been extremely hard on the fan base and the city. So, as a life long fan and someone who would love a long term competitive baseball, I have to strongly disagree with Naylor coming to Pittsburgh.
Colby Mayo from Baltimore I would be ok with sending a Ashcraft, Harrington, and/or Solemoto with Ortiz to get Mayo. Ortiz can be an immediate placed in the O’s rotation while one of Ashcraft, Harrington, or Solemoto builds up to be on the club. Mayo can play both corner infield positions should Hayes goes down with another injury. With Cook able to play first base as well, it would make perfect sense to have Mayo/Cook man first base or Hayes/Mayo man third base. Middle infield is set with IKF, Gonzales, and Yorke. Only major concern is Outfield with Reynolds being the only real lock to take one of the three spots. Jack Suwinski could get another look again. But the depth for OF isn’t there. Internal options is Yorke and Cook playing in the OF. Oneil Cruz will still get reps in RF or CF (pending Jack Suwinski showing this spring). Beyond that, it’s quite unclear who man’s the outfield. Losing Del La Cruz hurt and I hope they bring him back to be the 4th OFer. If not, they need to add an OFer. But then again, Triolo just won the gold glove for being utilized in the infield and of. So he can be the 4th or 5th out fielder.
I think the Pirates would find a 2ay to bloc cincy on any serious moves to aquire either player
And who do the reds have to offer that will make cleveland better if naylor and thomas are gone? The goal is to improve not collect random prospects.
Just looked. Cleveland has a top 5 farm system but so did we til we promoted a bunch last year and year before. Naylor is 1 yr rental rn so isn’t going to net any of our top 5 prospects (chase burns, Rhett Lowder, Edwin arroyo, sal stewart, cam collier), but have a bunch of options in the majors and all throughout. Just guessing but maybe a package of like one of our #10 – #15 prospects and maybe someone like Ashcraft could be a conversation starter depending on who Cleveland wants. But there’s a ton of options. Hopefully we can throw Candelario in there somehow too, even if it takes a slightly higher prospect, esp if we can resign and add another year or two. I wouldn’t be opposed even chase petty or discussing noelvi marte although it’d not be a 1 for 1 swap there ofc with martes age, contract status, and ceiling (even with his poor start to his career)
Yeah Cleveland will be looking for mlb ready talent. Reds would be crazy to sell low on Marte. He needs to go back to Louisville. Cleveland won’t be taking candelario either.
Ashcraft does make sense as he’s a controlable arm. Fraley is a platoon guy but a stat machine. I think Cleveland will dig deep into reds farm thou to pull a couple guys that they like with high ceilings. That’s typically the route they go. Reds also acquired an OF from the Mets a couple years ago who makes sense in this trade
I just commented on someone else’s comment to say that because Naylor has 1 yr left and we have a ton of arms in the minor leagues, im hoping they’d consider Julian aguiar (#11 prospect) or Connor Phillips (#15 reds prospect). I’m open to moving marte but not in this trade. I just think we match up very easily with our young arms (not Lowder, burns, petty ofc) and think Naylor would be a better fit than giving up way more for Luis Robert Jr who never plays more than 100 games and is very expensive. Think he’d provide similar power as Santander in gabp but higher avg.
For me I am not giving up more than maybe a couple mid tier prospects for Naylor. Reds should save their prospects for a player for more than a one year rental. Besides Reds really need OF and 3B more than a 1B. Lane Thomas would be an okay get although he too is a one year rental. Player trade values Thomas at only 5.9 so should not take too much to obtain him. If Guardians need pitching all the better since Reds have a fair amount of that. Maybe Julian Aguiar?
Aguiar and Richardson with a low level quality bat for the pair ? Maybe a higher quality 3rd piece if Cleveland throws in some money
As a die hard reds fan, this would be amazing to get Naylor and is VERY possible. Didn’t know a ton but when it was first announced he could be available I did research and this is who I want! And for those who say we wouldn’t spend they don’t know anything. Our payroll is at 91 mill right now and krall said we would match or exceed last year’s (100mill). So his 12 mill is VERY doable. And with friedl and Fraley who I really like being lefty, this could easily be a starting gig over will Benson Stuart Fairchild, even with steer spelling him once in a while out there.
His stats, age, contract value, & experience with Tito on paper seems like it a perfect fit! more reasonable payroll jump too with less to give up then for someone like Luis Robert Jr or Rooker. Naylor is 27, plays 1b/OF, career .262 hitter, bats lefty, with power that’s shown for 86 doubles & 68 homers the last 3 yrs. Imagine that in GABP. Also played 121-152 games/yr last 3 yrs. Don’t know much about fan favorite Santander but this seems like a better power option with a higher BA and less cost/yr. (Projected 12mil/yr im final arb yr)The more I see it the more I love it and think he may be at top of my wish list! Reunite him with tito (did better in 2023 too with tito than 2024 btw). Go get him nick krall!
Yes all good points but he is a one year rental and we really don’t need a 1B, we need 3B and OF. Now if a deal could be worked out where Guardians take Candelario as their 3B I could see something like Candelario, Lodolo and Petty for Naylor and Thomas. Then try and sign Naylor to an extention with the money we saved from Candelario’s contract. Anyway fun time of year for this kind of speculating.
Not a chance I’d give up lodolo for Naylor especially not with petty included even if they take Candelaria. That’s crazy. Naylor is a primary OF who plays the corner if needed from what I understand so stick Naylor in RF/DH/1B and immediately it’s a massive (offensive) upgrade over Benson, Fairchild, etc.. I’d be very happy with an outfield of friedl, Fraley, and Naylor with steer mixed in.
“Naylor’s projected $12MM salary might be an even greater challenge, even if Naylor offers more upside.”
Sell the team Bob
12 million for a 1B with good power and a decent slash line is pretty affordable…
That’s just the writers opinion which is wrong in my opinion. However irregardless it is my opinion again that Bob should sell the team as long as it’s to an ownership group that has the money to field a team that challenges for the playoffs most years and has a strong desire to win.
Naylor for Elly even up. In a heartbeat.
Funny.
What?
Naylor for elly’s left nut perhaps
I am sure Elly would not agree. Now maybe for the right one.
Throw in Hunter Greene to be fair.
While Naylor would be a great addition id want more than 1 year. Especially if I. Giving up good talent for a guy
That’s the key and also we need 3B and OF much more than 1B. Unless it is a team like the Yankees, Mets etc who are vying for a WS I can not see anyone giving up too much for a one year rental.
Naylor would be a great fit for the Reds. But he’s expensive and only a one year rental so I wouldn’t expect them to offer a whole lot in return.
Willy Adames is good but just signed for 7 yrs and a whopping $182 million. At this point 12 million isn’t bad at all esp when out whole infield makes like 800k each on rookie contract. Shoot Emilio pagan costs us like over 8 mill. I’d take Naylors 12 mill in a heartbeat to reunite with tito in a better hitters ballpark
Agreed but depending on what we had to give up to get him. Also are you comfortable with sticking Candelario or CES at 3B? Because one of them would have to go there.
Actually, CES cannot and would not ever play 3b. Candelario and marte can. I’m probably less high on marte than other reds fans and even I realize last year is a wash due to suspension and never getting in a groove. Even tito said you can’t judge a player til he gets 1k AR bats. Plus, you could give elly and McLain a few starts there like they’ve both done the last 2 years (not McLain last year obviously). 3b has plenty of options, but none have proven themselves to be the longterm answer there.
Any idea what Cleveland is interested in return wise, prospects? Pitchers, position players?
Baseball America just released their 10 top prospect list and the Guardians’ first 9 were all position players. So they need pitchers.
I like Ashcraft and hope he goes to our bullpen, but would love if they’d consider Connor Phillips or Julian aguiar who are both young, ranked 15 and 11 in our organization respectively, and only had a cup of coffee in the bigs so far.
Aguilar is out for the year right? And I wouldn’t mind giving up some prospects if that’s what they’re after.
Ashcraft is hurt more often than he is pitching. Aguilar is out for all of 2025 already. Phillips had an awful year in triple A in 2024. Cleveland is coming off the ALCS in 2024 so all prospects make no sense as well.
I mean your not getting Lowder. Burns or Petty for a 1 year rental.
Is Cleveland really that sold on Manzardo?
I really don’t see how they are better getting rid of Naylor. Seems stupid to me
They are a savvy franchise. They place a value on Naylor and if they can get it in a trade, they’ll pull the trigger. If not, they will ride him out
I don’t see them getting what they want for a one year year rental so better to ride it out.
I don’t see either as anything to get excited about. Money wise isn’t an issue. As far as Lane goes, a platoon at best probably a little better than Fairchild but doesn’t move the needle much. Naylor’s power is enticing but where would he play? I would not put him in right field, first and DH is covered. I would trade Candelario for him and cover the difference in salary but that’s it.
I believe I read that lane had a very poor defensive rating if I remember correctly, but Fairchild at least had great defense in cf. Neither great hitters but lane is better there
I think he is much better than Fairchild. I did not know Naylor could play the OF. You mention trading Candelario and paying the difference. Are you talking about paying just for 2025?. Because he is owed 12M in 2026.
I assumed Naylor played more OF than he actually did. Looks like majority 1st which is fine still with the dh especially since who knows what’s going on with CES wrist recovery. I live in arizona and worked at the complex grounds crew in 2019 so still connected. I think he had to stop playing in Arizona fall league this year too, unsure if bc of wrist. But it does look like Naylor played 126 games in OF in 2019 for San Diego, then 26 for Cleveland in 2020 (shortened year remember) then up to 51 in 2021 before only 5 and 1 the last 2 years (which coincides with when they added thomas). I’d stick him in RF then rotate him at 1b and DH with Candelario since I don’t think CES will be fully ready to go or able to play all year imo.
Schanuel and Adell for Naylor. Do it now Perry. You pea brained bafoon.
Low IQ Angels Management;
Yes, the Angels need to go all in in 2025 because they’re an obvious leading WS contender. So trading for a player that will be a free agent at the end of the season is a must do.
Speaking of “pea brained bafoon(s)”……
Sammy, you’re too fool hearty to understand that the post was meant to show that the Angels need to unload failed prospects now rather than hold on to them for wasted years like they’ve done for decades. See Brandon Wood, Bobby Rose, Lee Stevens, John Orton, Casey Kotchman, etc etc etc. But you know nothing of any of that, so stay in your lane noob. As an aside, the Angels management and ownership group are allegedly all in on a playoff run this year. Perhaps educate yourself before you speak. Should this be true, Naylor would make a great addition to the middle of their terrible lineup. Furthermore, he could be flipped at the deadline. But, again, you’re a low IQ bafoon. K thanks bye.
You’re insulting him and telling him to stay in his lane, yet you’re the one coming to a reds Naylor rumored article to randomly bring up your angels. but he is the bafoon
Great, Sammy’s burner account chimed in.
Not Sammy’s burner acct. This is a guy who checks this site all the time but made this account years ago and only used like once or twice a long time ago. Without giving my name my first name starts with a K so I don’t know who Samuel Sammy is. First I’ve ever seen him but sounds like yall got history haha. I just thought their comment responses were funny haha
Thanks for your riveting input sammy.
A buffoon of a baboon? I’m not following!
Balloon?
No way Cleveland accepts that.
If I were a Reds fan I think I’d rather have had India playing first every day* (*health pending).
The Guardians want a MLB arm (starter) who is contact controlled for a few years.
If I was Cincy I’d try a trade and sign for Naylor. 1 year/$10M followed by like 5 years/$75M and call it a day.
Greene for Casas, Rafaela, Crawford & Whitlock. Could that get it done?
Nope
ZERO chance reds even consider trading Greene for anyone they just resigned him and he is our ace hahaha
A few thoughts…
1) The Guards just spent $14 mil for Bieber, who won’t be ready until mid season. It’s a risky win now play. Trading Naylor for prospects is a move for the future. Combined, the two moves don’t make much sense.
2) One year of Naylor won’t bring back MLB rotational help, which is the one big need for Cleveland.
3) The weather in Cleveland is much different than it is in Cincinnati. Cincinnati is weather wise a southern city. The stadium in Cleveland is walking distance from Lake Erie, and the lake doesn’t warm up until mid June. There is usually a stiff wind in from RF until then, which then reverses.
4) The Guardians traded three decent (not great) prospects for Thomas. Hard to see them trading him for salary relief. While Clevelands TV situation isn’t good, the Guards just had a profitable playoff run.
5) The Cleveland organization is built on a specific culture, which they take seriously, and feel that it is an important tool in allowing the Guardians to compete with the bigger spending teams.
In the clubhouse and on the field, Naylor is a big part of that.
All this leads me to think that the only way either Naylor or Thomas is traded is due to an overpay.
Per the writer Reds signing Naylor would be a challenge with his $12M contract. Why exactly is that?
Because they don’t actually follow our team and just assume we can’t pay for it as a small market team even though our payroll is only at 91 after nicks qualifying offer, and we’ve said and shown for years that we haven’t reduced payroll but that we would maintain it. Then nick krill came out and said we will increase it/”room to add”. So this writer is not very informed…