TODAY: The breakdown of Buehler’s deal is provided by MassLive.com’s Chris Cotillo (multiple links), who reports that the contract also contains a $25MM mutual option for the 2026 season. Buehler receives a $3.05MM signing bonus, $15MM in base salary, and then a $3MM buyout of the mutual option, totaling the aforementioned $21.05MM guarantee.
As much as $2.5MM in bonus money is also available. Buehler will unlock the first $500K of that cash when he makes his 20th start of the season, and he’ll earn another $500K upon making his 22nd, 24th, 26th, and 28th starts of the season.
DEC. 28: The Red Sox officially announced the Buehler signing.
DEC. 23: The Red Sox are in agreement with right-hander Walker Buehler on a one-year deal worth $21.05MM, according to a report from Russell Dorsey of Yahoo Sports. The deal is pending a physical and includes incentives that could raise the value beyond that aforementioned figure. Buehler is an Excel Sports Management client.
It’s an interesting deal for Buehler, as the $21.05MM guarantee perfectly mirrors that of the Qualifying Offer. Both Buehler himself and Red Sox right-hander Nick Pivetta were considered borderline candidates to be extended the QO at the outset of the winter. Ultimately, the Dodgers declined to extend that offer to Buehler while the Red Sox did so for Pivetta but were rebuffed. From a financial and roster perspective, today’s deal allows Buehler to secure the same guarantee he would’ve gotten had the Dodgers extended him the QO while allowing Boston to add a veteran right-hander to its young rotation on a one-year deal that mirrors what they offered Pivetta last month.
The 30-year-old right-hander was among the league’s most talented young starters during his rookie season back in 2018, and pitched to an excellent 2.82 ERA (146 ERA+) with a 3.16 FIP in a four-season stretch from 2018-21. That stretch concluded with Buehler finishing fourth in NL Cy Young award voting behind Corbin Burnes, Zack Wheeler, and Max Scherzer in a race that seemingly cemented his status as one of the league’s top aces. That career trajectory was thrown off the rails early in the 2022 season, however. Buehler pitched to a relatively pedestrian 4.02 ERA (101 ERA+) in 12 starts for the Dodgers that year before going on the injured list in June and ultimately requiring Tommy John surgery.
Buehler wouldn’t return to a major league mound until May of 2024, nearly two full years later, and struggled badly upon returning. Additional injuries limited Buehler to just 16 starts for the Dodgers this year, and even when he took the mound the right-hander struggled badly. In all, Buehler pitched to a 5.38 ERA (72 ERA+) with a 5.54 FIP in his final regular season in a Dodgers uniform. With that being said, the righty did manage to end his season on a positive note with a solid 3.60 ERA during the club’s run to the World Series championship this year. After a brutal start against the Padres in the NLDS, Buehler fired off ten scoreless frames between the NLCS and the World Series while striking out a third of his opponents.
That combination of a strong postseason, a terrible regular season, a fraught injury history, and a dominant track record made Buehler one of the most intriguing free agents on the market this winter and perhaps the ultimate high-risk, high-reward signing. To that end, it’s perhaps no surprise that he garnered interest from a huge number of teams. In addition to the Red Sox, Buehler also garnered interest from the Tigers, Cubs, Mets, Yankees, Athletics, and Braves this winter. That wide-ranging interest made it apparent early in the winter that Buehler was likely to surpass the one-year, $15MM deal MLBTR predicted he would land as part of our annual Top 50 MLB Free Agents list, where Buehler was ranked as the #37 free agent this winter. It even seemed to open the door to the possibility the right-hander would be able to land a mutli-year deal with opt-outs; while he ultimately settled for a straight one-year pact, his $21.05MM salary in 2025 is likely much healthier than what he would’ve received on an annual basis on a multi-year deal.
For the Red Sox, the addition of Buehler adds another arm with plenty of upside to a rotation already full of it. If Buehler manages to rebound to the form he showed earlier in his career, he’ll form a daunting front two in the Boston rotation alongside lefty Garrett Crochet with right-handers Lucas Giolito and Tanner Houck joining them to create a formidable quartet. The additions of Crochet and Buehler have also significantly deepened the group, as right-handers Brayan Bello, Kutter Crawford, Richard Fitts, and Cooper Criswell all figure to be in the conversation for starts as well after being key pieces of the club’s rotation last year. Further down the depth chart, the Red Sox also boast interesting upside plays Quinn Priester and Michael Fulmer.
The addition of Buehler brings the club’s payroll for 2025 up to just over $175MM, according to RosterResource. The figure is substantially higher for luxury tax purposes, however, sitting just under $212MM. That leaves the club with about $29MM to work with before they surpass the first luxury tax threshold. The Red Sox last surpassed that first threshold in 2022, but there’s been no indication from club brass that the first threshold represents a hard limit on their spending amid what has been a fairly busy offseason for the club. With the rotation seemingly solidified, it seems likely the club’s priorities will now shift towards adding a right-handed bat to their lineup, whether that comes in the form of an outfielder such as Teoscar Hernández or an infielder like Alex Bregman or Nolan Arenado.
We’re alive!!
I called it!!! One year for cheap dollars to a guy coming off a major injury and a 5.38 ERA this season.
Classic Red Sox move!
I wouldn’t call 21 million cheap but okay
Exactly. This joker has a criticism for literally every and any move the Sox make.
murph – Oh it’s most definitely an overpay, but let me clarify.
The offseason began with many people hilariously expecting the Sox to sign TWO of Snell, Burnes and Fried.
Snell got $182M, Fried got $218M, and Burnes will likely get $240M+
Instead the Sox spent $21M on Buehler, $18.25M on an injured Sandoval, and $2.9M on Crochet.
The number of pitchers they’ve acquired over the past year who are injured or coming off serious injury has grown to a comical level.
FPG is 100% correct. Remember that the floor entering this off season was the addition two elite pitchers to the rotation. The deal is cheap on the contract when viewed in the lenses of TWO ELITE starters. It is only one year 21 million. Not a multi-year for an elite healthy pitcher coming off a good year which would represent NOT cheap dollars.
21 million on ONE YEAR for a pitcher coming off a major injury and down year. If he does well, he is either gone or will demand far more money and years. If he is bad, that was 21 million that could have gone to signing a Burnes as an example for multiple years. Either way, the deal only looks good if he pitches above that dollar value, and we are able to get a return on it.
This contract only assures 2 things. 21 million is no longer available, and that we will be looking for his replacement in 12 months. There is no way to look at this other than a failure, or lack of will, to add 2 elite starters when that was the known need and mandate entering the off season. I view this move as a potent upgrade over Pivetta for one year or a lateral one.
It’s cheap this offseason…lol
The Boras deal for Burnes will likely be an underwater albatross for 4 of its 8 years. I think Fried is heading for TJ surgery with his recent forearm tightness issues.
William – It is so refreshing to see people like you who actually GET IT!!!
All the November headlines about how the Red Sox “will start acting like the Red Sox again” …. how “this time they mean it” ….. BULLCRAP!!!
Regardless of the outcome, whether they get lucky or not, the truth is they are STILL doing business like a small market team albeit with a little larger budget.
Ken – You’re not possibly referring to me, are you?
William: You guys seem to always look on the negative side. I wouldn’t worry about the money. You won’t be paying it.
Sox fans worry about the money because it is now wasted (I don’t see Buehler giving Boston even Pivetta production this year) instead of signing a real pitcher like Flaherty.
@FPG. Hard to say it’s a overpay. I would agree Sandoval was. It typically takes two years for a pitcher to come back from Tommy john. I would take a chance with buehler for the price, and it being a one year deal, because he has a track record of being elite. Him signing a one year deal makes me think that he feels good and knows he can cash in next season.
I don’t want to be negative. I throw praise at smart or shrewd moves when I see them. I just praised the hell out of the Yankees a couple of times this off season, and I hate them. They had glaring needs and whether you like the players or not, for the 100th year in a row they aggressively filled their needs in order to compete in the playoffs and possibly win a world series again.
Most of my Red Sox posts are negative because they are counter intuitive. They usually solve nothing long term, and usually not even short term. Many of the moves are high risk for little reward.
The Red Sox have glaring issues. Some have been for years, and one for over a decade. Only fools wouldn’t notice them. So, why are those needs remaining unaddressed for years, or a decade? Why is there so much emphasis as a large market team on reclamations and journeymen? Why is it that what they publicly say is so drastically different from their resulting moves?
I seem negative, because they have given me no reason to be enthusiastically positive, including the trade. I knew we would do a trade and sign for the two starters, but I felt that the pieces made no sense for an organization with nearly zero catching depth. Crochet is fine…. potentially. Chapman was a great pickup, a few years ago, to solve the problem of not having a single dominant lefty in the pen since 2013. Are we better defensively? Have we added the power we needed, or the right-handed bats? Is the rotation more stable, or is it filled with even more question marks then 5, 4, 3, 2, 1 years ago? The bullpen is what? I have no idea if it is passable, or terrible. Half of it needs a MASH unit, and the rest is a collection of used to be good, or hasn’t been good yet.
Make them give us a reason to be enthusiastically positive. Don’t give them credit or passes for simply making a ton of moves that are mostly necessary because of smaller cheaper short-term contracts and high turn over rates.
avenger – You don’t understand how the Red Sox operate.
They are not like the Dodgers or Mets, they have a much smaller budget that they stick to.
bob – Exactly! I was expecting a Flaherty signing, not another roll of the dice to maybe save a few bucks.
Rex – I totally agree with you, typically 2 years before they return to the prior level of performance and endurance.
No team is going to give a multi-year contract to a guy coming off a 5.38 ERA 1.553 WHIP season, not for much money anyway.
Here are the current top pitching contracts How many of these guys pitched in the World Series last year. 3 of these are Dodgers and did not pitch in WS or a full year.
Shohei Ohtani 0 IP WS Win
Los Angeles Dodgers
$70 million
Zack Wheeler 200 IP 1st round exit – this contract worth it.
Philadelphia Phillies
$42 million
Jacob deGrom 10 IP Missed playoffs. Not more than 100 IP in 4 years.
Texas Rangers
$37 million
Blake Snell 104 IP Missed playoffs. More than 129 IP only 2 seasons of career.
Los Angeles Dodgers
$36.4 million
Gerrit Cole 95IP Lost World Series
New York Yankees
$36 million
Tyler Glasnow. 134 IP did not pitch in World Series
Los Angeles Dodgers
$27.31 million
Max Fried. 174 IP 1st round exit exit
New York Yankees
$27.3 million
Yoshinobu Yamamoto. 90 IP
Los Angeles Dodgers
$27.08 million
Carlos Rodon. 174 IP No Title. 4 ERA
New York Yankees
$27 million
Jordan Montgomery. 117 IP missed playoffs
Arizona Diamondbacks
$25 million
Sonny Gray 166 IP missed playoffs
St. Louis Cardinals
$25 million
Nathan Eovaldi 170 IP 3.8 ERA extensive injury history.. 170 + innings only a few times.
Texas Rangers
$25 million
Aaron Nola. 199 IP. 1st round exit
Philadelphia Phillies
$24.57 million
Robbie Ray. 30 IP no playoffs
San Francisco Giants
$23 million
A couple of these contracts may be worth it. But that kind of money on long term contracts rarely work out. I think Red Sox are being smart with short term gambles vs. long term gambles.
Flaherty is a roll of the dice. The Yankees supposedly killed their trade for him last year due to his medicals. He also seems erratic from start to start.
william – I wrote this last week, people CHOOSE how they view us. I write a ton of supportive, optimistic posts but they are ignored or not acknowledged by those who WANT to accuse me of being negative all the time.
Fact is, these are very dark days for the Red Sox organization. All of their success came under Larry & Dave, ever since Dave left it’s been a disaster.
Bottom line, there is ZERO excuse for the team with the 4th-highest revenue in MLB to be missing the postseason on a regular basis. Wasting money is a big reason why.
Shoman – Let’s see them actually win something before labeling them as ‘smart”.
Since their 2018 championship …..
ZERO World Series Championships
ZERO AL Championships
ZERO Division Titles
And just one WC during a Covid season.
Not good.
@fpg. The price is fair for his track record. I’m sure someone was offering 23-24. Syndergaard and Harvey got 21 years ago. After the top 3. I would say he’s the best with no pick attached. Plus he was trending up towards the end. Ohtani pitched 10 innings and looked like crap didn’t bounce back until the second year.
Fpg you get so excited by being right about them not spending ..i get it..i enjoy being right about things too..but anyone who didnt see this coming hasnt been paying attention so..maybe lets try and act like we expected this..since we know you def did and try and find something positive or better than then whether ” still get lucky” and not like what they have done..well they did it..cant take it back so as a sox fan i would hope you want this deal to be great..dont you?
4 championships since 2004. Who else has done that? They are in process of building more stability in winning . It’s a change of philosophy and takes a few years . They look good for the long term and could be playoff bound in 2025
Great moves for the Red Sox, avoiding long term expensive deals on Snell and Fried, Both have had their bouts with injuries, both carry as much injury risk as Buehler.
Buehler has put up good numbers in the echelon of a Burnes, a Fried, a Snell, and you get him in a one year deal because he is betting on himself to be healthy and pitch well. He is looking for 30M AAV long term like Snell and Fried. He bet on himself to get it. If he is the Ace this season, you can extend him to a deal similar to that of Snell or Fried. If he isn’t you have good options to fall back on.
One full season of Crochet and Sandoval in ’26. Both potentially could be extended.
Houck/Crawford both will be in ARB in ’26 with team control in ’27. Both looking for extensions too.
Bello signed a sweet deal and he looks great to me. 6yrs/55M – ideally you’d like to lock in Houck/Crochet/Crawford on similar deals. Don’t know if it’s attainable but it’s reasonable to me. Sandoval too, that would be a nice rotation to keep in place for years. Giolito could possibly be a replacement, Whitlock could be a good bullpen/Swingman.
Boston has a good team in place and is still 30M under luxury tax thresholds.
every long-term pitcher contract is a likely time-bomb. the yankees want to win now and rolled the dice. losing soto forced them in the direction of run-prevention and i prefer fried to burnes for more years/$
almost all of those signings were win-now moves. the red sox have been building to a championship window with a stocked farm system. i thought the window would start in 2025 but imo their behavior suggests 1 of 2 things: they see the window starting in 2026 or are truly operating like a mid-budget organization
If they have been or will be injured we don’t want them.Good thing we have a pitching coach and pitching program that is supposed to be top notch.Even if we got Burnes,what’s to say he won’t get injured and his contract would then be an albatross.
I agree but think Sandoval was a nice deal too, think he gets back to the bullpen by the end of the season, could pitch some good innings and be ready for ’26 @ ~14M not that bad of an overpay.
i’m probably in the minority but i believe bloom did a good job carrying out his assignment. i always assumed he was brought in to build the farm system and set the team up for some future multi-year championship window. he was never going to be the guy to see it through because that requires a dombrowski skill-set which bloom does not have. bloom did his job but the jury is still out on whether they intend to go all-in now that the top prospects are about to graduate. i get the frustration of red sox fans but there’s an argument that the window is still a year away. if they don’t spend next offseason we’ll know for sure that they’re a high revenue organization operating like the brewers
The FLOOR was two elite pitchers? In what world? No team is signing two elite pitchers this year
These are Central Division deals. The Red Sox compete in a more expensive neighborhood…
Ray – what are you hoping for if not WS titles?
How do the rays, blue jays and orioles survive when they have enough to afford Baltic avenue but visit the boardwalk and park place half the year.
And don’t forget Marven Gardens!
Sho – Well it’s a good thing Dan Duquette was GM of the Red Sox and not you when they signed Pedro to a 6-year (plus 7th-year option) contract!!
Or when the Nats signed Scherzer to a 7-year contract!
Or when the Cubs signed Lester to a 6-year contract!
Rex – the Orioles were terrible for a decade, with an owner that had one foot in the afterlife. Luckily, they hit on every first round pick for the last 5yrs. But, that’s the outlier and not the norm.
The Rays have constructed a system that gets them to a plateau, but no farther. In a way that Vegas house advantage works. Over a long period of time (162 games) they have a slight advantage and win 90.
BUT!!!!!!! It is exactly the star player that gets to lift the trophy on that final night of the season. If you want to extoll the virtues of teh 2015 Royals to me, you’d be correct, bu other than that Manny, Pedro and Papi beat the Spreadsheet every day of the week, and twice on WS Elimination night.
21M is cheap as it is the same as a QO.
Rays could win the division with their pitching staff.
McClanahan/Baz/Bradley/Pepiot/Rasmussen/Littell could be real good.
Their bullpen is always good.
They do have a number of holes 3B/CF/DH but just added Eloy Jimenez. MLB ready prospects Carson Williams and Chandler Simpson should plug two of those holes. They likely will stick with Jansen at C who is good defensively. Will have both Caballero and Caminero in the infield mix, they like Caminero’s hit tool and Caballero is a good glove with good speed. Morel can play OF, Caminero had a run out there too, Johnny DeLuca, Richie Palacios,they aren’t that bad of a team if Lowe and Lowe stay healthy and Yandy makes another run at a batting title.
Shoman5: Thank you for taking the time & research to spit out these FACTS. All of us have opinions and spout out a few factoids but it’s refreshing to see the effort you put in.
@sad.sox. I was just responding to someone that said that it’s a central division deal and the red Sox live in a expensive part of the neighborhood. Followed by a monopoly reference. I don’t think the deal was bad probably every team would do it. If that was his price. It either dropped to a year or he took a slight cut to go-to the redsox.
Bw – Which one of those guys throws the team on his back for a needed stretch during the season and then homers in an elimination game and then wins it the next night too in the playoffs??
We already have that type of guy. Devers was dynamic in May and June, whent the Sox were 4 games back, played hurt in August and Sept before they were eliminated, and where was the deadline help? A back-up catcher and gasoline for the bullpen to add to the fires.
The hard part is taken care of. They need to surround him with talent.
I will say it again, I like Buehler being here, but this is more of a finishing piece, than a team builder IMO
Rex – sorry, wasn’t calling you out at all
I like having him here, but its the type of move that i question.
The FO is hoping he’s good so that we get a QO pick, or flip him at the deadline. . ITs making a move to show how smart you are rather than saying, “this gets us one step closer to the Division, or playoff, or WS.”
Build the team to win, not to play Strat-o-Matic with the other Ivy League nerds.
Is Dave Dombrowski hoping to flip Jesus Luzardo, or, is he saying, “I can match up witht he Dodgers today”?
The only fallacy in your assessment is almost linking post-season success directly to each pitcher. It takes a team effort. Cole may have been a champion (again) if his bullpen held down the lead in game one and the team didn’t have a meltdown in the fifth inning of game five, for example.
Sad – Great post!!
The fact that some people here would rather have NOT paid huge bucks for Manny, Pedro, Damon, Foulke, etc is an absolute travesty.
The greatest 4 years in Red Sox history during our lifetime were 2004, 2007, 2013 and 2018. If anybody regrets the money that was spent those years, they are either dumb as dirt or not Red Sox fans.
It is a false narrative that has been debunked by multiple teams over many decades. When was the Yankees rebuild? When did they wait years to spend or compete?
During the historical 2 low points in Yankees history, they STILL HAD THE BEST RECORD IN BASEBALL for those years on average. They simply had a drought of championships. They spent to win, and the results weren’t what they wanted many times, but the fans had expectations of the playoffs nearly every single year because of the assembled talent.
The Dodgers have not had the success of the Yankees over the decades, but I can barely remember any years in my life where the Dodgers were not a playoff threat to start the year.
Larger market teams that “attempt” to win EVERY year do not do tear downs, rebuilds, or spend half a decade waiting for the right moment. They simply try to win…. every year.
They see needs and aggressively fill them. They place as much talent on the team roster as they see is available for their needs. A down year is never a reason to sell off, it is just marking where they need to improve, fill holes, or draft/spend for talent.
Not one person here believes for a second that the Red Sox even remotely as a franchise have the will and drive to assemble playoff teams like the Yankees do, or Dodgers right now. Sustained winning is a year-to-year drive that you refresh every year. The Red Sox brass would have you believe it is something you MUST be willing to reset as a large market team, possibly wait years till the moment is right, then, and only then, will you be able to SUSTAIN SUCCESS forever. It is such a crock of s**t. Only in a world where the Yankees never existed would anyone buy this load of crap from the 4th biggest market.
William- BRAVO!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Lets add the Phillies, Braves, Padres and Giants (they aim high, even if they dont always land the fish) to your list. And, here come the Mets
The Red Sox, Cardinals and Tigers ownership should be embarrassed, not emboldened.
Every team owner in MLB is a billionaire, the teams ALL turn a profit, the mlb fan has Stockholm Syndrome
Nola and wheeler got the Phillies to the playoffs, ohtani could at least hit, cole got the Yankees to the playoffs but the defense was the demise, fried kept the Braves competitive but the Braves had an early playoffs exit with and without fried starting in 23/24.
Rodon -too injured and snell is too inconsistent. Some pitchers are worth it, some not. Id wished the Braves sign Beulher on a two year deal.
Want to know the simple difference between the Yankees and the Red Sox. The Yankees do not care about Fried, Cole Burnes, Clemens, etc being a bad contract down the line, because they will simply spend, trade, and fill the needs as they arise. They attempt to acquire the best talent available, not just to have it, but to deprive their competition from having it.
They are driven and dedicated to winning, so they win more. They make more money year after year, because they win more year after year. Because they win more year after year they make more playoffs, they win more pennants, they have the opportunity to win a world series every time they make the playoffs. The players, agents, and owners know this. The players see them as a means to rings, the agents see them as great buyers and huge endorsement opportunities, and the other owners will simply bow out at times knowing that when the Yankees are involved, they have to move on to target other players. That Soto contract is a direct result of a bidding war with the Yankees. No Yankees involved and that contract may come in 100 million or more lower.
The Yankees understand hoarding talent practically guarantees a baseline of 85 to 90 wins EVERY YEAR. If the team clicks, they get 95 wins and up. If the team underperforms, they will shed the underperformers and replace them with the best available talent the market offers. They will trade prospects, and replenish them either internationally, or in the draft. They will run up the salaries past the tax threshold in order to compete yearly and relower payroll through young players surrounded by veterans.
So yeah, the Yankees could give a rat’s ass if the contract is underwater for 4 years, because that only means that Fried will be ejected off the team or be their number 4 or 5 starter at that point. Not just because he is underperforming, but because they will have 3 or 4 other pitchers in the rotation they acquired or brought up that are better.
william – Excellent post as always!
Have you ever seen this before? So-called “fans” who are not only content with losing, but they also support low payrolls to put more money into the pockets of ownership?
I mean seriously, WTH???
Bloom sucked. How was he going to build towards multiple championships without pitching. All this guy did was draft infielders and some outfielders. Pitching wins games and he put no focus on pitching. Pitching is more valuable than position players that’s why they can’t trade that position depth for a young starting pitcher. Bloom was clueless. Good luck to St Louis with him in charge.
You are correct. As a big market team the Sox should be able to focus on the present and future since they have the resources to make that happen. The fact is Henry doesn’t care about the Sox the way he used to. They clearly operate as a mid market franchise now. Basically the Sox will be a 500 ball club with a outlier season here or there.
Ray – They’ve got $78M tied up in 3 high risk signings, Giolito and Sandoval and Buehler. Not to mention others such as $10M to Hendriks, $50M for Rafaela, etc.
Each of those contracts DO have the potential to prevent other necessary acquisitions or extensions from happening.
To put it bluntly, they are pissing away a ton of money on lottery tickets. How often do lottery tickets become winners???
FPG- you hit the nail on the head here and in your Yankees analysis post, they’ve been carrying a bad G. Stanton $30mm contract and still managed to add Cole, Rodon, Fried…….
This idea that Frugality ala Tampa Bay is the way to go is absolutely ridiculous.
William…fair points but assuming the goal is winning year after year..when comparing the yankees to the red sox looking at current ownership groups the red sox have 4 titles in the past 20 years to the yankees 1…so lets not pretend that 4 -1 ratio means nothing because yankee fans sure as hell beat so fans over the head with titles during the prior 100 years
Fpg. Who on here claims to be content with losing? the rest of us just dont feel the need to crap on the team while patting ourselves on the back for pointing out the obvious. “I called it” you sure did man you win!! Happy?
Fpg guy i bet you were spouting the same before 04, 07 , 13 and 18..so yes..20% ..in your method lottery tickets win 20% of the time
The whole point of my post wasn’t the rings. The Yankees have a better record through that entire time period. Not by a little either. They play to win so they have been competitive every single one of those years. Their down year, they barely missed the playoffs. That enables them to have a chance every single year to make the playoffs. Every entry is a potential ring. There is no rebuild, retool, etc. They are fielding a team that is a potential playoff team. Every year. That is their mission. Sometimes they do not make it, but the talent was there to make it.
On the other hand, we have been a last place team more times during that same period than any other time as well. We have also spent the better part of half a decade obviously not competing.
Fpg… All of those contracts were before all the chase for velocity and almost every pitcher getting TJ.
Well, Buehler has not exactly been dominant and very erratic since his 2nd surgery, but point taken.
William… all of that gets them 1 championship in last 24 years and maybe 1 in the next 25.
Shoman5 = Two months ago I suggested a framework for Red Sox decision making and nothing has changed. They are not willing to exceed the qualifying offer price range in AAV and they haven’t. I pointed out the Free Agents who were at or below that number and Buehler was my suggestion then because he was young and a project. That is Breslow’s motus operandi. This was the first real predictable choice by Breslow since he arrived.
Now here is the bad news. We have Giolito coming back and if he does well he’ll sign elsewhere in 2026. We have Sandoval coming back in 2026 and if he does well he’ll sign somewhere else. Now we have Buehler who if he does well, he too will sign elsewhere in 2026.
We may have somewhat solved 2025 issues but have done next to nothing for the future except lose 3 excellent young prospects who will haunt us down the road. We have a one time wonder that will be a free agent in 2027. By 2027 everything that has been added will be gone so there is a small window of opportunity that ends in 2026 unless Boston is willing to change their $21Million AAV CAP per player.
This is a transient team. We may have bumped the wins over 81 in 2025 but not enough to win the division in 2025 or even in 2026 but the last playoff spot is now an outside possibility for 2025 and a more realistic chance in 2026 when everyone is healthy.
Our current roster for 2027 includes our three albatross contracts in Devers, Story and Yoshida totaling over $76Million and our three pre-mature signings of Bello, Whitlock and Rafaela totaling roughly $20Million.
We are not building for the future because 3 key players who would have been key stars in 2027 were Teel, Montgomery and Meidroth. Also, our current all-stars of Houck and Duran aren’t signed to be here in 2027 either.
Everyone should be pleased a need was addressed. The rules set forth by ownership were followed so the talent acquisition wasn’t nearly as good as it could have been but ownership should maximize profits so that’s what really matters.
So here is our latest line-up:
C – Wong (league average catcher)
1B – Casas (above league average 1B with upside)
2B – Grissom (league average or below 2B)
SS – Story (Struggling SS who might or might not hit)
3B – Devers (Above league average hitter and liability on d)
LF – Not Sure (if Anthony then positions will likely change)
CF – Duran (high ceiling)
RF – Abreu/Refsnyder (platoon outfield)
DH – Yoshida (Finally healthy and needing to prove himself)
SP1 – Crochet (One time wonder that needs to repeat it)
SP2 – Houck (Best pitcher on the team since 2020)
SP3 – Giolito (May not be effective until mid season)
SP4 – Buehler (Needs to regain his skills after long lay-off)
SP5 – Crawford (Young and improving)
SP6 – Bello (Needs to return to form that got him a contract)
SP7 – IL – Sandoval (Likely to miss entire season)
CLOSER – Hendriks (Outstanding closer if healthy)
SET-UP – Chapman (Inconsistent but can close too)
SET-UP – Whitlock (Needs to return to form)
SET-UP – Wilson (Lefty)
SET-UP – Bernardino (Lefty)
SET-UP – Slaten (Righty)
SET-UP roles are not clear yet but Hendrik, Chapman and Whitlock seem to be locked in.for sure the others are my guesses but with CORA who knows.
Two key omissions from the starting players are the minor league player of the year who should be good enough to break camp in a starting role if there is fair competition for each position (Kristan Campbell) and the much criticized 3rd best player on the team Cedanne Rafaela. I expect he will be traded since Cora has treated him like dog crap.
Is this team a step up from 2024? Yes. A big step up? No. Is there time to add more? Sure but the money under the CAP has dwindled. Big name relievers would be very helpful or even another SP that is below the AAV cut-off like:
1 – Cal Quantrill
2 – Luis Patino
My preference would be to use the other money under the CAP on relievers who are established, reliable and can close if needed:
1 – Tanner Scott
2 – Carlos Estevez
3 – AJ Minter
I doubt it will happen but if it did then all the team would need to do is take the initiative to move Devers to DH, move Campbell to 3B and move Yoshida in as the Left Fielder so he gets a chance to prove himself before he gets DFA’d or traded. He must establish value to be traded.
Rex – Bottom line is we have 3 $20Million a year gambles by Breslow. The first, Giolito, blew up in his face. The Sandoval one has great potential to blow up in his face and the Buehler risk is just as great as the other two. Sure, we all know his reputation but if the Dodgers gave up on him, shouldn’t that send a loud message to everyone? Even a guy like Boche who has maybe the best set of pitching coaches in baseball passed on him and he wasn’t expensive.
Optimism is great as long as it’s tempered with realism.
Sagacity… great post…
I believe they will and are preparing to sign Duran, Houck(Free Agent 2029), and we still have young guys they are developing in the minors. They will spend more but they are building from 3 different angles to protect from overpaid long term contract that saddle clubs in the luxury tax zone.
Meh, Houck, Crawford and Bello have allowed for the Red Sox to take on some risk. Kudos for the Sox in doing so and not falling victim to the long term garbage deal.
They need to find as many players willing to sign Brayan Bello type contracts as possible, and if you don’t want to be on board, let them walk. Buehler a one year rental but could be a great season for him.
avenger, I find it so annoying when people say “it’s not your money” or “you won’t be paying it.” Every team has a payroll budget, so fans know that each signing impacts what the front office will be able to do the rest of the off-season. Sometimes an owner will go above his usual comfort zone when he thinks the team has a legitimate chance at winning, but most owners are pretty predictable in the payroll range they give their front office to work with. That’s what the concern is with a majority of fans over signings like this.
Pool – When I defined the parameters of new acquisitions several months ago people considered my comments as being negative. They weren’t. They were factual. These guys have set an AAV limit after the Devers, Story and Yoshida mistakes.
Fever PItch Guy is excited because all the nay sayers have to eat crow now. They attacked him just like they do me and he’s responding in kind.
I explained in another comment that this was fully expected and I also explained why this approach by ownership doesn’t really work. We have six guys contracted in 2027. The three albatross contracts and the three premature contracts. What we don’t have are our all-stars contracted or our borderline all-stars contracted. Or any future stars.
Devers in 2027 will be 30 and have a couple of years left of productive hitting and no fielding skills whatsoever.
Story will roll off after 2027 and save us $23.3Million to be used elsewhere. There is no expectation he will be back in 2028. Yoshida will also roll off after 2027.
Today’s ownership approach has really shortened the future of the roster. Three years from now Devers will be the lone albatross contract and we’ll have no young players of value that are signed as of today. This documents what I have been complaining about since Dombrowski was fired. We have no long-term play for how to rotate talent through the roster. We boast about a farm system that isn’t thought through and then gets gutted without forethought of the implications of moving the good players in the farm system.
Chaos is a word I often use to describe the Red Sox because they don’t have a plan. They simply wing it and then over react when they do something stupid like pay a DH 50% above his value, or a foreign player with redundant skills far more money than he is worth or a redundant SS so they don’t have to keep a home grown hero and bump him slightly to reward his great performances. Chaos. Hot Mess. The blind leading the blind. So many descriptions that fit!!
Sag – Great post as always! You’re 100% right, nobody knows Buehler and his health better than the Dodgers. If they thought he was worth $21M in 2025 THEY WOULD HAVE OFFERED HIM THE QO!!
The Dodgers obviously called it right with Paxton!!!!
Shoman5 – That’s crazy talk. Seriously what a bizarre take on the current situation. Do you follow the Red Sox or do you work for them?
1 – 4 championships relate to competing with the Yankees but spending slightly below the CAP. Mistakes took the team over the CAP but they were willing to make mistakes.
That’s no longer true and that’s why the roster sucks.
2 – The change in philosophy is from winning to make more money. The goals changed. The philosophy of making money stayed the same.
We just won a championship and they changed philosophies. Who does that? MORONS. People who don’t care about the fans.
3 – They don’t look good for the long term. I just documented that the roster currently has 3 albatross contracts and 3 premature contracts on the books for 2027. The only decent player is Devers hitting but because of his defense you have to subtract talent that lessens the value of the roster. Story and Yoshida are non all-star quality players. Bello, Whitlock and Rafaela are also not going to be significant since all have dropped off since signing their extensions. What’s missing is future all-stars being signed through the 2027 season.
Why do you think the future looks good for the long-term? Because nobody is signed? Interesting assessment. None is better than having all-stars signed for the future.
Your comment sounds like Marketing BS from the front office. Not one comment was accurate. Just a bunch of company BS. It’s so ridiculous it’s laughable.
Sagacity. You’re welcome to that opinion, but we have a top 5 fsrm, young roster loaded with talent at MLB, those guys will keep getting better. Under the luxury line which gives opportunity to sign the right players. Great culture in clubhouse. Great manager. Best pitching coach in the league. Story will be good, Devers will be better with the protection they sign.
They stopped spending because it’s not a great model to win then finish last then pay more big contracts and win again then finish last. The landscape has changed, 8-10 + years for pitchers is not wise. Let it play out for a year or two and you will see.
Sag – Scintillating post, thank you!!
It’s stupid to not “worry about the money.” First, we do pay it. It’s our tickets sales, subscriptions, apparel purchases, etc, which give the team revenue to spend. Second, and more importantly here, each team operates on a budget of some size. Every contract dollar given to one player is a dollar not available for another player.
The only thing you are going to regret with Buehler is that is going to be there just one year, but you can give him the QO, and yes RS paid like 3MM more but for the upside?
You don’t believe me but at the end you are going to like it, they can also flip him at the DL.
my fellow yankee fans have a bad habit of declaring any season without a title as a failure but all of those made-the-playoffs-but-didn’t-win-it-all seasons produced magical moments and months of meaningful baseball that a lot of fan bases experience once in a generation. if you asked 100 fans if they would rather have 4 straight playoff appearances with no titles or 1 title and 3 last place finishes a lot of them would choose the title but by the middle of that 3rd wasted season they might be regretting their choice
That’s because IMO when you finish a rebuild spanning 6 years, and rebuild a farm system in its entirety, remake you entire pitching selection, drafts, and developmental process with a pitching focused staff and GM. You need not go for it all in the first year you step on the gas a little. If they extend Crochet, that’s a huge win. I don’t think either arm for 8 years is remotely intelligent (let the Yankees and their 16 year drought & 29th ranked farm with zero depth continue that stupidity) any 8 year deal Boston signs for a pitcher (if ever) will be a Crochet, or other 23 to 27 yr old arm. Signing a SP whose age 30+ and in the league 8 to 10 yrs already is foolishness. Go check who’s available in FA in the next year or 2. Or in trade, or at the deadlines mid year. No need to spew your load like nyy for a bucket if piss at year end lol. Sox are in great shape and just need to avoid the really stupid move like, trade Casas or abreu lol or the big 3…patience this is for sustained playoff appearences, winning the division and as many Championships as possible
pepenas34 – So the best part of having Buehler is we can flip him at the deadline? Wow, that’s a winning approach!!
So I guess we need to root for a good first half since the intent is not to win but to trade up by signing Buehler.
dasit – I get that Yankee fans like participation trophies. What Red Sox fans like are three consecutive Division Titles and a ring. That’s why ownership throwing that away has been so harsh on Red Sox fans.
Nothing is more fun then when BOS and NY spend similar money and have a great rivalry. Those days are gone and we can thank the owners for choosing profits over winning after getting the fan base hooked on winning.
Flaherty is a roll of dice signing as well with his back issues. Buehler is a better pitcher if he can be healthy this year which he probably believes he can be because be had offers in the 2 and 3 year 40 to 60 million range.
Personally, I’m getting excited for this Red Sox season for the first time in 5+ years. Adding Crochet and now Buehler are very strong moves to bolster the rotation. If they can get anything decent out of Giolito then they are going to have a very strong rotation. A potential Top 5-6 rotation in all of baseball. Now, they need to decide between Bregman & Teoscar. If Mayer & Campbell are can’t miss prospects, then I’d prefer Teoscar for 2-3 years over Bregman for 6-7 years. Sandoval for $18M for 2026 could end up being a shrewd move, like we hope Hendriks will be this year, and to a lesser extent, Fulmer as well. The Sox need to add that big RHH bat and possibly one more bullpen arm and I’ll be very happy with this offseason.
In addition to these moves, I think Breslow is working hard to find a taker for Yoshida. If both Mayer and Anthony play their ways onto the team this season, they’ll have far too many LHH on the roster. Plus, opening up the DH spot will be necessary if they do indeed decide to sign Bregman.
All I know is that this is most promising offseason we’ve had in a long time. The team is already much better than it was last season when they went .500. One or two more additions and they are a true playoff contender, provided the team can stay relatively healthy. The glass is half full.
Well time will tell and you will see. Red Sox will be competitive.this year and are set up to be good for years to come. You are undervaluing our farm system significantly in my humble opinion. I’ll be willing to say I’m wrong if I am. I don’t think it’helps your argument to make things personal, it’s not a good look when you do that and it cheapens your argument. Make your point without treating people like that. Just not necessary.
who’s fault is that?
I’ve literally never seen you post a positive thing about the red Sox, are you lying to yourself?, how do you even call yourself a fan?, if you’ve literally not said one positive thing about them?
@Shoman. Not a personal attack and avoiding the specs of your post, but I loathe the how many played in the WS arguments. Only 2 of 30 teams play in the WS. Therefore only 1 in 15 of those contracts should involve WS players.
Evening relenting literal odds for pragmatism a bit, let’s say the bottom third of the league has little to no chance of these sort of signings/WS appearance- that still leaves an expected rate of only 1 in 10 big contracts landing in the WS in any given year.
Read the writing style, are some these posters blogging under multiple user names?
I find this logic odd. What if he comes in and helps you make the playoffs? That would seem to be a good result, the “he’s bad” or “he leaves” is technically correct but the interim is what matters for this deal.
@bw Rays could win the division with that rotation if it stays healthy. That’s a huge if with some of their injury history.
I won’t count out the Rays lineup, they always seem to find production and/or talent. As far as their pitching tho, I think they lack the depth needed to support that fragile rotation. I’d only be confident in Rasmussen and possibly Bradley hitting 20 starts.
@Tigers – They got a nice prospect, Ian Seymour, who is ready on the farm. That gives them seven potential starters. Ray’s also employ the bullpen as well as any team in baseball and often throw bullpen games to rest their starters. They should be good. But no telling what McClanahan or Baz give you this season, Baz is closing in on two years post surgery, should be ready to rip. McClanahan could need some more time.
I agree that Crochet will definitely be an improvement to the rotation. I don’t know that Buehler will be any better than what we had with Pivetta, but I am waiting to see what happens during spring training.
Once they get the impact right handed bat and elite bullpen arm, I will be very excited. I have been leaning toward Bregman, because he provides both offense and defense.
If we can get anything in a trade for Yoshida (assume the Sox will need to eat a chunk of his contract) that would be huge as I agree we need to open up the DH position. Seems like there has got to be a team that could use Yoshida’s bat, although coming off of surgery makes it harder.
With Hendriks and Giolito recovering in the next ward. The Sox have gone way beyond cheap. With the money they wasted on these guys, they could have gotten Flaherty who at least is healthy.
Fpg i wasnt on this board then but based on your comments the past several years i find impossible to believe you didnt criticize something about all those deals and that you have anything positive to say about the sox prior to them winning i really hope they win this year so i can get a good laugh out of whatever you and trollfree err sag or maybe all just you say about this team you so thoroughly have trashed…shocking that you consider yourself a fan and never wish one of these moves to work out that you hate
Fever, I know I’m late to the game but I like this move. Obviously, a risk but he will pitch hard for that new contract and while I expect the team to extend Crochet, this season will allow the team to better judge their roster moving forward. They knew they were not getting Soto so I disregard that. It will be a colassal failure should they not extend Crochet. As for 25, let’s see if they acquire a third baseman to move Devers off the bag. Even with a better staff, they will fade in August again if their defense can’t save them from expending extra innings.
Ken – Yeah just as I thought, another hit ‘n run from you. No response.
You’ve got nothing to add to the article discussion about Buehler, but you damn sure made it a point to take a cheap shot at someone who you obviously hate …. but yet you don’t mute them? Says a lot about you and your motives.
The only “joker” is the one who calls himself “King”.
I have respect for the effort to assemble this list. Add Sean Manaea 3/$75
Sad.Sox 3: What afterlife? If you mean death, then say that.
Pool – What the hell? Attacking me personally, and on Christmas Eve no less? I know that doesn’t matter to atheists such as yourself, but show some class and respect. Especially with me having always treated you with respect.
Even if you’re a junkie, that’s no excuse for the nonsense you wrote.
I have been extremely positive and optimistic and SUPPORTIVE of this team for half a century. The fact that YOU CHOOSE to ignore all of my supportive, positive, optimistic posts and instead choose to obsess about my few constructive criticism posts says a lot more about you than me. That is YOUR problem, not mine. There is literally thousands of my positive, supportive, optimistic posts out there for you to see if you actually wanted to.
Clearly you have something personal against me and want to silence me. So you have a choice, either mute me or simply ignore me. But I assure you, one more personal attack and you’ll be muted. Nobody wants to read this drama from you, especially me. I have too many people waiting for responses to their posts.
So if you can’t handle opposing viewpoints, ignore me or mute me right now.
You are not the first to wonder if Fever Pitch Guy is actually a Red Sox fan.
Fever Pitch Guy can dish out criticism, but can’t take it.
“Most of my Red Sox posts are negative because they are counter intuitive.”
==========
Most of tres Sox posts are negative because you’re a contrarian. You like to neg on anything anyone else enjoys. Nothing you write is “counter intuitive.”
@ Sagacity – The Sox farm system is still strong. We still have 3 top prospects there in Anthony, Campbell & Mayer and they had a 4th in one of the best under the radar young pitchers in Luis Perales, but unfortunately he had TJS in June so we won’t see him this year. I agree they paid a ton of talent for Crochet but that’s what a premium young pitcher is worth these days.
They also have some other interesting pitching prospects in Priester, Fitts, Dobbins & Sandlin and not to mention their 2nd round pick last year in Payton Tolle. When Breslow took over, he identified pitching as their greatest weakness in the farm so he went out and acquired 3 of these guys above in trades last year and then drafts 17 pitchers in the 2024 draft. Very smart move if you ask me. At least 2 of the guys above have #4 – #5 starter potential, and with some further development, possibly a #3 starter in there. If Perales can recover, he’s a future #2 – #3 starter as well. If Breslow can lock up Crochet & Houck to long term deals, I really like the future of their pitching staff from 2027-2030+.
They have 2 young IF/OF prospects in Arias & Cespedes who will be Top 100 prospects sooner than later, not to mention their best OF prospect outside of the Big 3 in Jhosty Garcia. They also have a nice young catching prospect in his younger brother Johan Garcia. I hated losing Teel, but Wong is a Top 15 catcher in the league and hopefully Garcia can continue to develop nicely.
bc – William is not a contrarian, he’s a real Red Sox fan and one of the best posters here.
Real Red Sox fans know these past six years have been one of the darkest periods in Red Sox history.
Real Red Sox fans know when ownership doesn’t give a damn about winning, they know when they have lied, they know when they have made awful decisions.
If you think being a Red Sox fan means praising everything the team does and not giving a damn about constant failure, then you’re not in touch what being a fan is all about.
As for the “counter intuitive”, I’m pretty sure he meant the team’s decisions and just could have worded it better.
Forty million spent on junk
Like all true fans, I wanted to believe it
You are the last person on this page who should be lecturing people on their behavior when you constantly act in unchristian ways. You condescend judge and ridicule and weakly gaslight. and then when people call you out you run and hide and mute them.
All I said was Marven Gardens!
acell10: When have I ever claimed to be Christian? I’ve never been and never will be a gentile.
And how do you know so much about who I mute or don’t mute? Are you one of these trolls with multiple profiles?
The only possible explanation is that you’ve trolled me with another profile that I muted.
Either that or you’re so obsessed that you somehow keep track of this stuff, which means I’m living rent-free in your head.
I’m pretty sure acell10 is speaking to Fever Pitch Guy.
OK.
acell10: Sorry for ripping you a new one if you weren’t addressing me. It’s sometimes hard to tell who’s talking to whom on here.
Blue that comment is directed at FPG not you. He was whining about being insulted on christmas and accused people of being atheists because he’s a giant baby. I Was pointing out his hypocrisy.
no worries Blue Baron.
Fever – here I am two days later after wondering to myself “why did I not see any commentary by FPG about the Buehler signing? Maybe he went on vacation.” Well now I come to find out that somehow I had you muted LOL. Ghost in the machine or something!!! Don’t know how I did that!!! Anyway fixed now, all good. Hope you had a good Christmas.
Not since Dave left. When he extended Sale that was the beginning of the end. Emptied the farm system and albatross contracts.
@all…..I see FPG as a Red Sox fan but not a John Henry fan. FPG commented on the Sox being for profit. He talked about the Sox being a top 4 revenue generator. Well the only way you stay in business long term is by operating within a budget. Hal took a few years off from spending in New York after George died. Steve Cohen is one of the top 100 wealthiest people on the planet, you aren’t outspending him dramatically in a uncapped league. I don’t know how long the Dodgers can keep doing what they are doing, I’d love to do a forensic analysis on their financials. The Braves, Red Sox, and Yankees are top 10 in global sports empires. Liberty Media who own the Braves is worth a out 20 billion and 18 of that comes from Formula 1 racing. My point in this ramble is that FPG doesn’t appreciate that Henry has other interests like Liverpool FC as an example.
kingbum: I’m not sure which comment of mine you are replying to. It’s fine if Fever Pitch Guy doesn’t appreciate that John Henry has other interests such as Liverpool FC. People like Dewey also feel the same way. The difference between FPG and others is that FPG will fabricate things to bash the Red Sox. For example, FPG will state that Red Sox ownership has stated that they will not compete until Mayer, Anthony and Campbell are established major leaguers which is false. He will also insult others and say that he will not tolerate insults. He will speak on behalf of Red Sox Nation which is ridiculous. Some people question that he is Red Sox fan. People like me point out some of his inaccuracies so people can see he is unreliable, but I think people eventually see what is going on. He can post some good things, but I think his overall effect is quite toxic. I agree it would be great to have access to teams financial records.
I always appreciate that you keep such a positive perspective on the Sox. I think the majority of the people posting are leaning more toward the level of frustration that FPG has about ownership and the lack of action when it comes to making big moves. FPG can tend to be overzealous when it comes to focusing on the negative of every move they make, even with moves that have some up side.
Crochet was definitely the big move so far and the lack of action in getting any of the other big names they have been rumored to be interested in is getting a bit frustrating. I am trying very hard to stay positive, but as each big name gets signed by someone else it does give me concern that this is going to be another year where they don’t make a big splash that can bring them to the next level as far as being competitive.
They really made it sound like this was going to be the year where they were not going to worry about spending, but that has not been the case so far. For example instead of getting Chapman and Wilson, why not go all in for Scott? Now that Teo is gone, I will be disappointed if they don’t get someone like Bregman (although I am not sure where he would fit without some other moves and sounds like Breslow may not see him having a place). It doesn’t sound like they are having any luck finding a taker for Yoshida, which makes some of the other moves more challenging.
How confident are you that they are not done and that there will be more moves to improve the team in the coming weeks?
Uncle – I appreciate your post and I agree I’m probably emotionally overinvested in the team, and financially overinvested, and invest more time in them than I should. All that overinvestment translates to more passionate negative AND positive takes.
BTW the Crochet trade’s short-term impact, even if he stays healthy and pitches well for 200 innings, is somewhat mitigated by the loss of Teel if he is promoted and performs well.
UPDK: I’m not exactly sure what is going on with the Red Sox. They said they are willing to go over the luxury tax threshold, but didn’t promise to. I think they are willing to spend, but are not willing to give out contracts that will likely have unproductive years at the end. I think they are willing to spend on younger players such as Devers, so I expect them to lock up more younger players. Maybe all of this put together results is what we have seen and confused fans. Prior to this offseason, I was thinking that the Red Sox are building a young team through the farm system which would eventually have a long window of contention starting in 2025 or 2026. I’ve been fine with that approach. Now that we have traded two of our top five prospects for Crochet, does that mean the window of contention has started or are they still building toward the window? That is the question for me. I have expected spending to increase during the window of contention where holes are filled with free agents. So, are they still building toward a window of contention or are going for it now? I don’t know and I don’t think they will tell the world their plans. I agree that is a good approach, but that leaves us fans in the dark. So, I am not sure what is going. The good news is they haven’t added any more bad contracts. Have they improved the team? I think the starting pitching and bullpen will be better. I don’t think the offense has been improved so far.
I had major reservations about Teel being the top piece. I really expected him to be the catcher of the future for the Red Sox. That was my biggest issue with that trade. I do hope they lock up Crochet or I think the investment will end up as an overpay.
Good to hear you have the same feelings about this offseason. I agree the pitching has the potential to be a step up from last year if everyone stays healthy. I don’t know if Breslow was assuming some of these trades would play out differently and Yoshida would be gone by now, but unless the youngsters make major strides in the spring and contribute at the big league level I worry that our offense may be worse than last year. I am going to just keep hoping they make a few more significant moves, because if they don’t it definitely seems like they were all talk when it comes to increasing the salary to fill holes.
Uncle. Thanks for the feedback and I do get concerned at times as well, but I believe that they are very smart and focused on building long term and sustainable success instead of the winning and rebuilding that can go along with bad contracts and trading from a thin farm system. When I look at the process they have been going through it is about building organizational depth in the farm and In pitching. They are near the back end of that in 2 short years. I also believe that are very hesitant to block the path of future stars that are very close to majors like Mayer, Anthony and Campbell. They also know the fan base would like to retain more of its own players and they will have some big extensions coming with Crochet, Duran, and a couple others. They done well in building some stability in supportive roles by extending Bello and Rafaela to contracts at reasonable dollars without too much risk. To answer your question.. I do believe we will make moves but I don’t think they will take on a bad contract at this point. In my humble opinion, we are already much better next year and leveraged for long term moves and success with what Craig has orchestrated thus far. They will give out big contracts for the right players at the right time without it being good for only a few years and then an albatross. I understand I could be wrong but it seems to me that this is the plan based on the moves they are making, I don’t think they are being cheap, just breaking the cycle of bad value contracts. It is a business, and no owner ever truly loves to waste money on bad deals, that is not how they got the money in the first place. The Dodgers will pivot and so will the Mets when they go through it a few times. I’m betting that we will have a decade or more of continual success that we could have had under Theo before he started acting like the Yankees and taking on bad contracts and careless spending. Theo was amazing, but left a thin farm and big, bad value contracts that led to a rebuild. Dombrowski did they same . Now we are on track for a consistent competitive winning future.
Shoman5- I do have concerns that some of these massive contracts are going to end up being a mistake, so completely understand why you would be concerned about the Sox ending up with a bad contract. I don’t love some of the moves they have made this offseason (reclamation projects seldom pay off) but they are one or two years so won’t have a long term impact. I also get not wanting to block the prospects, although you never know if they can duplicate their success in the majors. As ownership has made clear, they are ready to get competitive this year and I am not convinced they have done enough yet to get there but hopefully there are still some more moves in the works.
I think we win the division. Baltimore is worse, Blue Jays are no better, Tampa Bay is always difficult to predict, and the Yankees are better on paper but I believe worse as it plays out. Could be wrong on Yanks, but culture is important and undervalued by most. There were real reasons he chose not to return there. Not all about money.
The Yankees are an older team with an older rotation. No one is talking about that.
Love the positivity and will certainly be going into the spring with excitement. It will be interesting to see how things play out with the Yankees. They subtracted Soto, so not sure that the additions will make up for lost offense. They have the potential to have very good pitching but like Suit said they do have an aging rotation. Baltimore definitely seems to have taken a step back with the players they lost and the Blue Jays have not yet made a big move that will move them up.
I find it interesting that the view amongst many is that the Red Sox aren’t willing to pay for top talent because they are afraid of having deals that are unproductive down the line, but are willing to shell out so much of their expenditures on deals that either have no production up front, or will yield close to no real production during its life. In many of the contracts, if the player succeeds in many of these deals, they will almost assuredly require another deal for more money and years. The track record in recent years is that in most cases the player leaves.
It seems so counterproductive especially since the same holes in the roster keep remaining unfilled, the turnover rate remains a concern that forces them to constantly spend to fill, and the payroll is still near the cap. Compound those issues with the fact the contracts tend to go up each and every year for elite players.
Shoman5 – For a three sentence opinion you sure wasted a lot of time with irrelevant data. Your tidbits have nothing to do with your point because TEAM results seldom depend on one pitcher. Nobody cares if big contracts were in the world series. They care about the stats produced by the pitcher and whether it was worth the money spent. It’s that simple.
The length of the gamble is completely irrelevant.
The cost / benefit results define whether a contract was good or not. One bad year in a contract doesn’t suddenly make it a bad contract, it’s the entire contract that must be evaluated. If you sign 10 different 1 year contracts back to back and they all have horrendous cost benefit results then you probably would have been a lot smarter to sign one 10 year contract that simply breaks even on a cost/benefit evaluation. No generalization works for any contract. You must precisely estimate the future value by year and the cost by year and then track it versus the prediction that suggested this would be a break even or better. Pretty simple. Length of contract is only important if you are a GM who actually plans like Dombrowski did. Bloom and Breslow prefer to wing it and that’s why they are terrible GMs.
There should be a project plan for your organization which includes Finances, Skills, Injuries and personalities. You don’t sign a guy for two years knowing he is injured so you can get a potential one year benefit from him since his success will mean he moves to another team. Breslow did it twice already. Then he signed Buehler to a one year deal so Boston is financially funding his comeback but with no link to him signing in Boston in a year because the bosses don’t do big deals unless the player is from the Dominican Republic.
These three small gambles which you suggest are smart are very bad deals:
1 – No continuity if the comeback player actually shines
2 – The price is double the players worth since you don’t see him pitch in the first season.
3 – Success triggers a big free agency contract elsewhere
$100 Million for 5 years of contracts so the face value is roughly $20Million a year EXCEPT 2 of the deals are for 4 to 6 months of pitching at best so the $100M actually covers roughly 1 year of pitching by each of the 3 starters. That’s a cost of $33.3Million per year pitched which is an elite amount of money for two pitchers that haven’t been good in several years and are coming off TJ surgery and a formerly elite pitcher who hasn’t been good in 2 years coming off TJ surgery.
FOR $100Million we could have gotten an elite pitcher for 3 years at $33.3 Miilion or a slightly lesser pitcher for 4 years. Then you contract Houck after arbitration and you have two stud pitchers to plan a future with instead of 3 guys leaving Boston by 2027.
William = 2 – Great stuff. I am thankful that I have lived my life when the Yankee front office was far less effective with their money. You don’t win every other World Series over 42 years without picking the best players from those available. I have no idea how the screw-up happened but NY has never stopped spending excessively they simply lost their skill at picking the best players. They seem to have focused more on the most popular players and most times those aren’t the best players.
I was in awe of Joe Girardi because since 2009 when Jeter was getting old along with many of the other Yankees he was able to keep the Yankees playing way above their skill level which was just the opposite of what was the norm when George Senior was in charge. His ability to get them into the playoffs with .500 teams was tremendous, much like Kennedy in TB. Since Boston and NY got the battling clowns (CORA AND BOONE) both teams have been under performing atrociously except for the 2018 World Series. Thanks to signing Soto they finally looked like the Yankees of old spending money on good players rather than popular players like Stanton, Rizzo and a long line of ineffective pitchers. Cole was a great move. Soto was a great move. Judge was a great draft pick. I’m now out of compliments for the Yankees in the last 10 years. Our list isn’t much better. At least they kept their best home grown player, we gave him away over pettiness by the owners. Mookie, Bogey, Benny, Devers and the pick-up of JD, Sale and Price were all great moves that got derailed by a bad choice in Cora. Together Cora and Boone cost their teams at least a dozen wins a year out of pure stupidity. Brett Boone was the smart one who took after his dad with respect to knowing the game, Aaron was always the life of the party, lady’s man, who got by on his last name and still does. The Cora’s were never a good baseball family like the Boone’s. One son Joey was barely a starter and Alex was a bench jockey with an attitude problem and a lack of work ethic. Shortcuts were his specialty. That’s why the can banging fit perfectly with his personality and the way he runs the Red Sox now. He likes being popular at the cost of being a good manager. Same as Aaron Boone.
The 2025 Yankees have upgraded their choices with respect to free agency and trades. The are clearly working to replace the lost stats from Soto. Boston didn’t have any star hitters other than Duran. Devers was dinged up, another reason to DH him but they had an excellent part time hitter in O’Neill. That bat hasn’t been replaced and his stats were across the board the 4th best behind Duran, Devers and Rafaela. The pitching got better in Boston if the 2 key additions of Crochet and Buehler pan out to be their old self in the case of Buehler and the 2024 version of Crochet. If not, then both the hitting and pitching has fallen off so the .500 record might be a bit aggressive as a prediction.
There is time left and plenty of money left but if Cora is the manager and Devers is the 3B, FORGET ABOUT IT. .500 will be the best case prediction unless an all-star is added at hitting or starting pitching.
soxfan4381 – Great points but to be a little bit fair to Bloom, as a newbie GM he had no idea of the negative impact of Cora on pitching. Here is a guy who sucked at middle infield who chose to advise Sale on his mechanics and caused the tear in his elbow that cost Boston two years of his Cy Young service. Price was a Cy Young winner too who fell apart under Cora.
Sagacity: You must have missed the lesson on the meaning of “Tell it in a nutshell.”
Raymond – GREAT point. Everyone screamed Mookie didn’t deserve $36Million (a $9Million a year raise from 2020 to his 2021 free agency deal) but he got even more than the $36Million a year from LAD and he is still AHEAD of his contract when compare his VALUE to his COST. That’s 5 years into the deal!! What has he accomplished?
1 – An all-star EVERY YEAR there has been a game
2 – Twice finished 2nd in the MVP race plus 5th and 13th
3 – Four Silver Slugger awards
4 – TWO Gold Glove awards at RF and now he’s playing SS!!
Some contracts are just a lot of money and worth every penny!!! So stop flaming out about length or cost, focus on cost / benefit ratios proving the deal is a good one before prejudging it!!
Fever Pitch Guy – The key to the $78M tied up in the signings is that it was used to purchase 3 seasons of pitching despite the contract covering 5 years. So $78 divided by 3 is $26Million per season pitched. That’s a lot of money per season for 3 guys coming off TJ surgery.
For that much money they could have signed Eovaldi or Manaea for 3 years and had some continuity in the pitching staff. As of now, NONE of the 3 will be on the roster in 2027.
That’s no way to build a roster. We are paying for the rehab of players who will cash in elsewhere. And we are paying top dollar for rehabbing players who haven’t been good in recent years. BAD INVESTMENTS. If you are willing to bet on Buehler give him a 3 year deal at the QO and if you are wrong you eat the same two years you might eat with Giolito and Sandoval. At least Buehler was elite at one time and he’s not that old.
socalbball – Profits drive budgets in most cases. Those profit targets in small markets are critical to meet but the big markets have lots of additional sources for revenues driving profits that aren’t associated with baseball operations. In the end, those big market clubs are humoring baseball by agreeing to the CAP numbers. They don’t impact their decision making, they are speed bumps at best. The Mets, Dodgers and Yankees have all come clean and have shown they don’t respect those CAPS. They will spend what they want to spend and the penalties are frivolous. Fans go crazy in Boston when international money is lost or a draft choice gets moved down. Maybe they should review just how many draft picks are successes that late in the draft and how many international signings have significant impact on their success. If a team has a need for international money to get a player they really want because he is exceptional, they can trade with small market teams and acquire the cash.
THE CAP is truly meaningless to Big Market teams, especially the ones that prioritize baseball over all their other adventures into the sports world.
Breslow and Bloom had no real experience at their job just like Cora. That can be seen by the complete lack of planning that exists in the front office and in the field. Cora still uses a calendar to mark days off for players rather than defining that by learning the signs of when a player needs a day off.
I’m not convinced that Bloom couldn’t have picked up many expensive free agents during his time but he was so busy tearing things down that he wanted scorched earth before he was going to spend big. The bad part of Bloom is that he spent so much more than Dombrowski for so much less talent it was a travesty that kept the team at .500. He would split up a $27 million dollar salary for Mookie into 5 dumpster divers costing $27Million. The payroll wasn’t reduced the talent level simply fell because Bloom was clueless.
Signing contracts because you want to win was the ideology that Dombrowski brought to Boston and it worked. Since then, the ideology was dropped so profits could soar. Great for the owners, sucks for the fans.
Dorothy – Your optimism for the farm system is a good thing. I am a bit more practical in my evaluation. While you are high on Anthony, Campbell and Mayer, I am not because Mayer is highly over rated based on performance.
If you want to look at the other side of the farm system evaluations you should go to ROTOWIRE. Their Top 400 give you their performance stats and better reflect how well a prospect is doing in relationship to other top prospects.
For example, last year one of our prospects won Minor League Player of the Year – Kristian Campbell. He got very little respect from the organization for winning this award but let me put things into perspective.
WINNERS OF THE MINOR LEAGUE PLAYER OF THE YEAR
2024 = Campbell BOS
2023 – Jackson Holliday BAL
2022 – Gunner Henderson BAL
2021 – Bobby Witt Jr.KC
2019 – Gavin Lux LAD
2018 – Vlad Guerrero Jr. TOR
2017 – Robert Acuna ATL
2016 – Yoan Moncada BOS
2015 – Blake Snell TB
2014 – Kris Bryant CUBS
2013 – Bryan Buxton MIN
2012 – Wil Myers KC
2011 – Mike Trout ANAHEIM
This is rare air and a huge deal. Of the last 13 winners we have had many MVPs. Moncada and Lux are probably the worst players on the list. Guys like Mayer aren’t going to make this list. Heck, Campbell beat out Anthony yet he is not rated higher by anyone. That’s simply disrespectful considering the guys that have won the award over time..
So who else in the lower echelons of the farm system will be the next on the list? I hope some of the guys you have suggested but making the list is very rare.
Since 1981 when the award was initiated ONLY Moncada and Campbell have every won it for the Boston Red Sox!!! Mookie and Bogey never did. Clemens and Pedro never did but Manny won it for Cleveland.and Josh Beckett won it for Florida. The real future stars besides Duran and Houck to me are going to be Campbell, Anthony, Rafaela, Teel (for Chicago unfortunately) but not Mayer. I think Chicago will enjoy Meidroth and Montgomery as future stars as well.
If we have players below AA that are starring so far that is great but until they prove to be stars at all levels from ROK to AA it’s too early to see the real future for the players. For those that have struggled like Mayer, the future isn’t as shiny as it once was and injuries and poor performance must stop if he is to recover and be on a track to be an above average MLB player.
We lost 3 of our top 10 prospects this off season. The farm system clearly took a massive hit. We now have 4 players in the top 100 on ROTOWIRE with Anthony rated 3rd, Campell rated 7th, Mayer rated 43rd and Arias 79. .
SagaCity — I enjoyed reading this immensely..hmmmm future book fodder possibly? I would read a book length of this kind of material…grounded in a sort of outlook of how to analyze baseball decisions. It’s intuitive to me and makes sense.
Uncle – How do the Red Sox keep Crochet when he’s a free agent when their highest AAV has been limited to about $21Million per year since the Devers, Story and Yoshida mistakes?
Here is a sad but likely scenario we will have to deal with as fans of the Red Sox:
By 2027 Giolito is likely to be gone because if he pitches well in 2025 he will get a multi=year contract with another team. By 2027 Sandoval will have come and gone as well if he does well in 2026. If neither do well, we won’t want either of them. Those are not good scenarios!!!
Now the two big ones that really hurt.
In 2027 Crochet will be a free agent and be seeking far more money than Boston has paid anyone since the Devers contract. By 2026 Buehler will be a free agent and be seeking far more money than Boston has paid since the Devers contract.
So basically we’ll have Buehler and Giolito in 2025 and then lose them and we’ll have Crochet and Sandoval in 2025 and 2026 and then lose them. If we don’t extend Houck, he too will be gone.
So what have we accomplished with our pitching? A revolving door that creates no continuity as seasons pass.
For me, this is a huge issue with the way Breslow is approaching building sustained success. Usually, sustained success comes from winning and keeping the best players to make it sustainable.
Breslow’s way, should not work and will not work without ownership changing their policy for contracts and without moving Devers to DH and firing Cora.
Breslow has HUGE obstacles impeding his success and has no understanding of how to eliminate them.
My hope is they lock Crochet up right away with a long term contract before he hits free agency and will be available to the highest bidder. If he hits free agency someone else will dramatically overpay.
FPG is a troll and needs to be ignored.
I am not downplaying 4 rings; I am simply stating the Yankees has a legitimate shot at making the playoffs 25 times because they are dedicated to making the playoffs EVERY year.
That does not mean they will win 25 rings, but it does mean they have the potential to have 25 shots at a ring.
As I have said and can easily be verified. The Yankees had the best wins vs losses in all MLB baseball during their 2 lowest periods in franchise history after the 1920’s. That is sustained success. Winning and success cause a hell of a lot of positive results. More playoffs, more shots at rings, more money from tickets, merchandise, tv, better draw for recruiting and keeping players, and on and on.
William: So, you actually think the Red Sox are trying to sign deals that yield no production?
Absolutely not. I do not think the Red Sox purposely go out and sign counterproductive bad deals that will yield no production. This happens all the time with teams, but I do not think any aim and hope for a terrible outcome to deals they make.
I think they are signing deals that yield no upfront production (as many have pointed out and is factual), yield production that overall falls short of the monetary outlay (on average this is the case), or in rare instances works out well resulting in risks to losing the player as their valuation has risen beyond the years and money it would feel comfortable to retain them. That was my point.
If you are worried about a players production going down over years, you should be equally worried about giving out contracts to players where there will be NO PRODUCTION at all up front, unquantifiable results during the duration while playing, and high risk of losing the player upon success, or having the contract itself being an overall failure.
I don’t think any of that isn’t logical.
I think the Red Sox mentality on how they are outlaying money to build a roster has a lot to do with the general use of lots of short term deals we are seeing for mid-level spending on individual players. It involves more risk that leans more towards the odds of negative outcomes.
Unquantifiable was not the best word use. You can of course quantify their stats after the fact and see if they remained healthy. Highly variable would have been better to use since you really have no idea if you are getting the player they “used to be” or a diminished version.
or just keep calling out his nonsense Jimi he’ll eventually get himself kicked out for his trolling
Blue Baron – If you are looking for texting I think you are in the wrong place. I’m here to discuss baseball not take snipes at others on the website.
Ignorant – Thanks. I planned on a blog but I never broke through the inertia to start it up and devote that much time to it. I’m happy that I got to share a lot of this with young players seeking athletic scholarships, draft opportunities and national showcases over the years. I had a great mentor when I was young to me the real side of baseball has always been fun to discuss with knowledgeable baseball fans. I feel sorry for the heavy metric people who don’t really understand the game but are strong willed about how estimates define baseball rather than facts. It’s hard for a computer guy who never got the in depth knowledge of the game by playing it, living and breathing it and strategizing about it to understand why estimates are great for many things in the world but the probability of something happening versus the reality of it actually happening are radically different. Stats are facts and guesses which is what an estimate is, are generalized data that is one size fit all for players who are all unique. Just like every pitch is unique and can’t be generalized if you want accuracy. That’s why metrics simply don’t work for me. I’ve seen my range vary greatly based on so many things that can’t be incorporated into an estimate and can’t be used as predictive data for what someone might do next. Silly little things like an infield has a stickier type of mud so the estimate for range will be over estimated if applied to a ball hit to an infielder while playing on that field. No system can be that comprehensive to create an accurate estimate, its a simple guess and it’s far more likely to be wrong than right.
Not everyone wants to listen to detailed baseball information that contradicts the assumptions that construct metric estimates so they simply right it off as being old school. The problem is they never attended the school so they have no clue how little they really understand. Baseball isn’t that complicated of a game in their minds so generalizations are fine to use even if they don’t really accurately reflect what they are generalizing.
Again, thanks for your comment. Any time you want to chat about a topic, please ask. That’s why I come to this site.
Shoman5 – It’s all about the money. I don’t know what else you want. He said it was and he did it. It’s all about the money. Insulting the Yankees as if there is something wrong with their culture while the Manager of your team is a serial cheater, the owners have traded away black players for resenting the comments publicly shared by the owners against a black player in the Eckersley scandal with Price and then hiring a convicted cheater as manager.
There is no integrity in Boston so to live in a glass house and call out the Yankees is absurd. It’s beneath any Red Sox fan to suggest someone else is more corrupt than a team run by Cora.
Sagacity: Not looking for texting, just concise, readable writing.
If you’re unfamiliar with it, I suggest you consult “The Elements of Style” and read about vigorous writing being concise and omitting needless words.
Just as a machine should have no unnecessary parts, a sentence should have no unnecessary words and a piece should have no unnecessary paragraphs.
You clearly have intelligent, informative things to say, but thoughts can be more effectively and powerfully communicated with brevity, which makes them more readable.
You would do especially well to break longer pieces into short paragraphs as opposed to just piling a bunch of thoughts into a single rambling thing as I have seen on here.
Thanks.
William – Great post! The Yankees M.O. of paying for healthy players who have performed well has enabled them to generate the most revenue in MLB and make the playoffs nearly every year. They do make some mistakes, but inevitably compensate for them.
FPG – I like the player. It’s definitely an infusion of talent. He’s no longer a #1 SP, but solid, tenacious..
Why the one year deal? Could’ve just kept Pivetta. Seems sort of lateral-ish
if things go right for Buehle, he has a way higher ceiling than Pivetta does
He bet on himself as a #1. That’s why he took this deal. There was for sure 2/40 or 3/60 deals out there with all the buzz and interest. One great season and he will get over a 100 mil next year
They made the same offer to pivetta but he rejected it
Buehler has a much higher ceiling than Pivetta ever had. Might be an overpay but won’t kill us for a year
Sad – It just strikes me as hilarious the number of pitchers they have acquired who are either injured or just coming off serious injury. All short-term high-risk overpays.
It’s like if the Red Sox had $425 to invest in, what would they choose?
One share of Tesla or eight $50 scratch tickets?
No question they’d choose the eight scratch tickets.
Red Sox are a constant restoration project, hence the username. I think some of the gambles they make have been worthy (I like this one), but there’s no doubt that they are all questionable considering they are from an “island of misfit toys.”
I guess it’s a great reference for this time of year.
Big – If he returns to 2018-2021 form, sure. But how many 30+ pitchers make a quick return in performance from surgery?
It cracks me up they are willing to take all of these huge risks, but didn’t have any expectation of Sale rebounding this year.
gwynn – As always, time will tell.
They’ve gambled on a lot of these types of signings, at least one of them should pay off eventually ….
I think the Sale scenario is a bit different. You have a fantastic point, but I think because Sale was a trade and not a free agent acquisition, they expected to get something back. Sale was also battling injuries multiple years.
I do wish we still had Chris Sale, but i don’t know he will be healthy all this year either. He was a dousy with that second contract
@sad.sox3 and @FPG – Pivetta is 32, has never had a dominant full year, is looking to sign for 3yrs or more and costs a draft pick. Buehler is 30, has had very dominant yrs and pitched like nails in the playoffs, is willing to sign for 1 and doesn’t cost a pick=allows them to keep the Pivetta pick. Yes – Buehler is coming off of injury, but are you sure he can’t pitch to the sub-4 ERA Pivetta has never manages? If you think his chance of raising the ceiling by pitching to a sub-4 ERA and maybe being able to dominate in the playoffs is equal to or better than Pivetta’s chance of doing so, then the signing you call lateralish is not so from a future team flexibility perspective. Don’t you think they want to let Fitts or Priester grow into rotation spots? This allows for that. Signing Pivetta or another one of those 3yr $20M+ guys doesn’t allow their young guys to step up. I don’t know why you want to block them with bad contracts, but fortunately Breslow is running the team, so he is doing the smart thing that is available to him here. The contracts others are taking on will prove stupid, and the teams signing them will have less to spend in future yrs. There are a number of potentially attractive SPs available next yr, and multi-yr deals this yr block rotation spots to sign those guys as well. This signing isn’t the most amazing, but it’s very solid given the market that exists this offseason and preserves future flexibility and a pick
They got what most thought was really good value for Sale, and they knew they weren’t going anywhere last year so it was good to pick up a highly touted asset.
David Ortiz a prime example of a once touted player who had been injured and then an underperformer. They “bottom fed” and took a chance. Bill Mueller was the same. Also Bellhorn. Also some of their bullpen back then. How did that all work out?
Blue – if i was inarticulate about it, i apologize. I wasn’t suggesting keeping Pivetta.
I think Buehler is a fair amount of talent ahead of Pivetta, and there is “more ceiling than floor” to borrow a phrase from Breslow. Moreover, i’m happy to have Buehler here.
My problem is this, signing these one year deals are a waste of time. If Buehler bets on himself and has a very good year, he walks away from the Sox, because he’s 31yo and will want $25mm+, and the Red Sox dont sign that demographic of player.
Therefore,two things result: first, you have to trust Breslow to hit again on another one year deal (in perpetuity), and second, you have to hope theres someone with the upside of a guy like Buehler available.
IMO, the other thing that everyone needs to realize is this, forget the market “this year”, as if its going to get better……prices go up, not down. Unless they change the CBA to prevent this craziness, ticket prices and free agent prices go up……
Pivetta is a mal-content
I understand your point, but there is an alternative… and I think this is what they want to do. Imagine your pitching development works, and you mature a prospect into a starting pitcher. Also, don’t sleep on that compensation pick for Pivetta. We turned a 4th Rd comp pick into Campbell. There are stud arms available in the Rd 2 comp pick area. Picking up an extra guy who has the chance to become a top 5-10 prospect and ace in the future is a big deal. The Buehler signing keeps that pick in place. Hopefully they now sign Tanner Scott to complete the bullpen. Their pitching depth is monumentally better than last yr. If they can attract Sasaki, awesome (looks remote), but then their pitching would look great actually.
Hoping they avoid Teoscar’s QO and find a way to get out of Yoshida for a guy like Suzuki, and they will be fine and fun to cheer for as the kids come up.
Pivetta may currently have a healthier arm than Buehler, but Buehler will always have a better head than Pivetta.
Blue – I didn’t bring up Pivetta and I don’t think he can be used as a comparison when we have no idea what he is seeking or will end up getting.
But I’m of the belief the 5th starter role should usually go to an up-and-coming pitcher such as Fitts.
Instead the Sox are looking at a half season (or more) of THREE starting pitchers attempting to work their way back from injury to a full workload (Crochet, Giolito, Buehler) and potentially a 4th in Sandoval.
That is an insane number of question marks and unless there’s trades coming, it also means little opportunity for Fitts/Priester/etc to join the rotation and gain some experience.
Just think, if Gio wasn’t injured last ST then Houck never would have gotten a chance to become the starting pitcher he was this year.
So which pitchers will all these reclamation projects be blocking NEXT year?
Sad – I have mixed feelings about your post, but I rounded up and gave you a thumb ;O)
I am totally, totally fine with this move IF it was an appetizer or dessert to complement a main entree.
But for a budget-conscious team to give $39M combined to Sandoval & Buehler (ironically the same amount they gave Gio last year) seems like an incredible risk for a team that can’t afford to make such costly mistakes.
As for the Pivetta comparison, I don’t see the comparison.
Pivetta is steady, durable, versatile, consistent, and with much unlocked potential. I think he’s better off with another team because the Red Sox haven’t been able to unlock his potential after more than 4 seasons. He reminds me a lot of DLowe, although hopefully without the off-the-field problems. LOL
Buehler has an exceptional track record, but he’s been injury prone and just coming off his 2nd TJS and his performance declined right after the sticky stuff crackdown. He hasn’t been a solid pitcher since 2021 and has hardly pitched since then.
Snell or Burnes is the guy I wanted this year. Shota and Lugo are the guys I wanted last year. If the Red Sox truly wanted to contend this year, I don’t think passing on either Pivetta or Buehler hurts their chances much.
I hate to see Behuler go, Boston you are going to love this guy, he is made for the big stages, smart, good teammate with a great arm.
Down side, second TJS, but I think he is recovering fine, and if he is betting on him, I would too.
Pivetta has been very streaky, he has had some real blow ups. Likely a temper thing that should improve as he ages into his thirties but Carlos Zambrano never fixed it. I don’t watch him pitch much but have noticed some games where he gets out of his rhythm and it’s a big time explosion of hits and runs.
FPG – you’re right. Adding Buehler is a finishing piece IMO. Thats said, if this is what we’re confined to, i’d rather have him than not have him.
You’re also correct about aggregating the earlier signings contracts into $39mm.
Following your train of thought, i know I’d rather have Max Fried and about $20m (Tanner Scott) more to spend, than Buehler, Wilson, Sandoval and Chapman.
Pepe – I think that depends how much the 2 year contract offers were.
Sad – That’s another thing, I fear they are done with the pen. If so that’s a concern.
I believed he had a 3 year offer by the A`s before they sign Severino, but the numbers were never shown.
prob 45-50/3
Pivetta is a hothead. Buehler is a better pitcher.
Blueberry … plus we get the pick from the team that signs Pivetta
pepe – Hard to believe Oakland would offer that much, unless the 2nd-3rd years were team options.
He’s better than Pivetta. Playoff winning pedigree with leadership and we get the competitive balance pick when Pivetta signs elsewhere
I’m guessing since you just joined the site you are a paid influencer who isn’t very good at it. Taking a cheap shot and Pivetta who was a great addition to the club at a time when things were very, very ugly. It’s nonsense.
bwmiller79 – Another new contributor or have I simply missed your negativity about Pivetta. The personal cheap shot about blow ups that didn’t happen seemed completely out of line. He steal your girlfriend? Wow.
The Carlos Zambrano comment might be some form of libel. What could possibly have triggered such a dark comment?
Consider how bad Cora is at managing the team from the perspective of selecting pitchers to be starters or relievers. It should be clear to most baseball people that Pivetta is a more effective reliever yet Cora chose to bounce him back and forth from starter to reliever with no plan. If he hated Cora like most of the pitchers, then should we be shocked if any pitcher doesn’t react negatively toward Cora’s stupidity.
Pivetta came to Boston and did a nice job considering how badly he was black balled by guys like you. If he wants out of a pitching staff run by Cora, who can blame him. Maybe he saw what happened when Sale finally got his freedom to pitch the way he wants to.
bwmiller79 – Seriously whats the point of that comment. The two subjects are unrelated and not true.
Buehler has had both better and worse years than Pivetta.
Buehler body of work is better over all but it’s not related in any way to the BS you are writing about Pivetta being a hot head. Did he not autograph something for you?
Shoman5 – Winning pedigree? hahaha His two worst years were the years the Dodgers won. How is that a winning pedigree. Mookie won it for them in 2020 on a short season and in 2024 he had next to nothing to do with adding a billion dollar of players to a roster that was already over the CAP.
Pivetta’s stuff plays well when he’s given the right role. He’s played for Cora since he came to Boston so he did well despite Cora misusing him. He should have been a reliever. His performance history is clear when it comes to what type of pitching he is better at.
Your phrase is also inaccurate. Bueher is not better than Pivetta but he has been better in the past at time but we are talking about the future which is unknown. So your opinion that Buehler will be better than Pivetta should have a ton of caveats about his health, his ability to throw strikes again and his stamina. The success rate of a 2nd TJ surgery is not well known. We all hope he is his old self so he can get a bigger and longer contract with some other team since we have caps on spending but it’s not guaranteed. His range of success is from Cy Young to BUST. We’ll have to wait and see if he actually is better than Pivetta because we don’t know that with any certainty.
Early in the year in 2024 he was trying to adjust getting back from his injury. He’ll probably be your best pitcher in terms of wins
I wonder if there is any guaranteed $ for a 2nd year option etc. He’s doing the mercenary bet on yourself thing by parachuting in. Then next year he can sign a multi year contract 4-5 years maybe
I wonder how many teams he talked to he held out because he thought they were low balling him. I think most BOS fans should be happy
Ya – Wins requires innings. He has pitched a grand total of 140 innings over the past 3 seasons, and not more than 75 in any of them.
It’s quite clear he suckered the Red Sox into paying big bucks for his recover and build up his stamina season. Best case scenario, he’s able to do just that and he walks after next season. Worst case scenario he spends more time on the IL and finishes with 120 IP and a 4.27 ERA
If the Red Sox plan to never give another pitcher more than a 2-year contract, they will continue to have a rough go of it.
NYY management and fans may have Sour Grapes
It was always one of the more likely scenarios that Beuhler was going to get a one year prove it deal. Not really much to brag about in that prediction.
FPG I’m not opposed to this move like it much more than signing Flaherty to an inflated contract.
Buehler looked pretty good against the Yankees it’s not unusual to take a bit of time after TJ surgery. He looked pretty good against the Yankees though.
Bruin – My only concern is his ability to rebound from major surgery into a $21M+ pitcher so quickly. History has shown it doesn’t happen that fast, especially when you’re in your 30’s.
So who goes from the list of veteran starters?
As of now it’s:
Houck
Crochet
Bello
Crawford
Giolito
Buehler
And maybe Sandoval.
I know people assume Crawford is the odd man out, but i would have liked to see how he does after being stretched out this year.
No one goes. Keep the depth
It’s no guarantee that Gio is ready to go right away. I’m guessing we open the season with:
Crochet
Houck
Buehler
Bello
Crawford
When it’s time for Gio to come back probably be an injury of some sort. I think Crawford will still be in the rotation. They might even want to go with a 6 man rotation if they are all healthy.
Buehler is the best of that lot, Red Sox have a lot of good pitching in place. Crawford is legit. Houck is legit.
miller – I believe Houck was great and the rest of the staff were above average.
But to win championships you usually need at least two great pitchers.
Fever Pitch Guy – Wow is it me or did we add a bunch of clueless participants to this discussion.
Houck was and has been our best pitcher since Cora destroyed Sale. Eovaldi was excellent too but he wasn’t here long enough. Crawford and Bello are league average and hopefully will improve.
The three new guys are all counting on lucky charms to see some positive results and then there is our one time wonder who we are hanging the success of the team on. Not every pitcher has the constitution to play in the high pressure AL East. Let’s hope he can handle it. Then, to pile on, he has to play for Cora. If he puts up a 4.00 ERA and 1.25 WHIP I wouldn’t be shocked. I hope that doesn’t happen but he never played a game with the White Sox that will be the equivalent in pressure to his first Yankee = Red Sox game. Lets see if he’s up to it. lets see if he can handle Cora telling him how to pitch and pulling him too early when he has good stuff. These are the things that will eat at him like they did Price, Sale, Eovaldi and others.
Buehler could be all kinds of good, or he could be hurt regularly like in the past but at least he’s played in high pressure games and done well. His health is his key and keeping it is another key.
Fever, I’m expecting a trade and would move Crawford in the right deal. While it was a very small sample size, I want to see more of Ditts who
Fever, I’m expecting a trade and would move Crawford in the right deal. While it was a very small sample size, I want to see more of Fitts who might have been worth the AV trade alone. He looked that good (in three starts).
dewey – Who is Ditts?
Yeah I agree with you on Crawford. I don’t get married to my stocks so I sure as heck don’t get married to any players, if trading them improves the team I’m all for it.
As optimistic as I am about Crawford, I’d move him in a deal for a young quality catcher like Raleigh or Moreno.
dewey – Ahh okay, you mean Fitts. I totally agree, I really liked what I saw of him last year on and off the field. He’s got a very good mental makeup which is important.
When you wrote ditts I thought you were jokingly calling one of the players ditzy. Haha!
Bruin1012 = I hope both Crochet and Buehler can live up to the hype about them. Your starting 5 should allow Giolito to get his arm in shape to compete at a high level. The last thing we need is a setback while trying to build up arm strength.
The six man rotation also makes sense since Crochet to me is a volume risk in 2025 after watching the CWS push him too hard in 2020 and create the need for TJ surgery and then watching them do it again in 2024 after returning from TJ surgery jumping his innings to a level that could have re-damaged the elbow. Plus Buehler will be a risk. So 6 starting pitchers used based on match-ups with Houck, Crawford and Bello being the most often used of the six makes lots of sense.
Sianara Nick Pivetta.
Buehler a nice upgrade to Pivetta. Red Sox have made two bold moves this off season, neither have long term implications should they rightly refuse Crochet an extension until the end of the season.
They can squeeze Crochet all the way into ’26.
Or, Crochet could take a real team friendly extension, 4 yrs / 48M, no opt outs.
His arm blows out and he will be battling back for years for that same payday.
Bwmiller
Crochet is not taking a team friendly extension of four years $48 million, if he has a solid 2025, he will be seeking at least double or triple that overall money.
Reminds me of Dr. Evil demanding one million dollars, get with the times.
@SAGcity, I watched a Rich Hill start against the Angels, Ohtani was pitching, Hill through six shut out innings, and Cora pulled him in the seventh. He was 42 or 43 years old, it was a 1-0 or 1-1 game. I couldn’t believe Cora pulled him. It’s not like your saving his arm at this point in his career, and it was one of those career defining games, to beat Ohtani, Hill got a no decision if I remember correctly.
@MLB that is a lowball offer for sure, but he doesn’t deserve much more than Bello, 5/70M probably more fair. Or he can take his chances on pitching two more good seasons. If I were him, I’d lock in a nice deal like 5/70M and take my chances on the next one. I figure I’ll offer him the 4/48 with an opt out in the fourth year. Pick your poison, or take arbitration in ’25 and ’26 and hope your arm holds up. Nothing guaranteed until you sign a deal. Be nice to have 70M guaranteed.
Crochet wanted an extension last trade DL, so why not take advantage of that and try some security, sure make him an offer!
Apparently Crochet was happy about the trade as well, so I could see an extension soon if the Sox pay up. Might want see how he does first
Cheap? Are you high?
The Red Sox did the exact same thing last year. They gave Liam Hendriks a 2 year deal when they knew he needed TJS.
Stfu
I was sure they would get another pitcher through a trade and someone with better numbers. I know they mentioned Buehler but had not heard anything in a while so assumed they moved on. All I can do is hope he has a great year. Now I am going to keep my fingers crossed for a right-handed bat and bullpen help.
Uncle – Agreed, at this point we can’t do much except hope he fails the physical but that’s probably unlikely.
I’m more concerned about his health than anything. Very very few come back after a second TJS, and he’s 30 now.
FPG: You want a medal or a monument?
Blue – Haha I totally agree, the way some people here are praising Breslow as if this is a brilliant acquisition is embarrassing! Fact is EVERY MLB TEAM could have given him $21M+ if they believed he would return to pre-TJS pre-sticky stuff ban form. And not even the Dodgers made him that offer.
It really saddens me. Within a span of 6 weeks they went from believing Soto and two of Burnes, Fried, Snell will sign with the Sox to now believing Buehler will be just as good.
PT Barnum was so right, sheep gonna sheep! Haha!!
I’ll bet ya he is good if he stays healthy. His playoff performance was nutty, especially closing out a game wth lol. He’s a dog
fever – Please don’t ever invest in stocks. You will surely assume stocks that have gone down will never go up again, and vice versa. You’d lose your shirt. Lol
you posted this re Chris Sale not beeing able to stay healthy, sadly the same is true here too
dem – With all due respect you have me confused with someone else, as i did NOT want Sale traded last year. Look at my posts.
As for the stock analogy, you have it backwards.
When a stock is trending downward you don’t buy it because you don’t know for certain when it will stop dropping, or if it will ever recover. What you’ve described, seasoned traders such as myself call it “Trying to catch a falling knife”. Do you get the analogy? If you are lucky enough to catch it just right (by the handle) then great! But most likely you will end up getting cut badly.
It is much, much safer/better to buy into a less volatile established stock that is trending upward. Guess how much I’ve made on Tesla since the election?
@fever you didn’t that not what i’m saying. you argued that sale could pitch fine if healthy and that past bad performance doesn’t gurantee future perfomance
the same can be said about buehler, if he was healthy and if he stays healthy he can pitch fine
the “Please…Lol” is verbatim your message to someone saying that Sale needs to be traded and applies to Buehler as well
the rpobability of buehler staying healthy and pitching fine is not much less than it was for sale last year
Even the Yankees passed. This was risky. I don’t think he’s much better this season.
Wahhhhhh
Rick – Shush now, adults are having a conversation. You’ll get your damn baby bottle when I’m good and ready. One more childish outburst from you and you’ll be sent to your room on a timeout.
And no dinner
And breathing!
Until he takes the mound!
You will love the guy Fenway. Fearless competitor!
Who gets voted off the 40- man island … ummm roster before signing. Any guesses?
sox – Great question!
I’ll guess Shugart, the dude is 28 and still hasn’t figured it out yet.
zoo wee mama
Atkins and Shapiro cuddling together on vacation in the ice hotel I guess
gotta stay warm somehow brotha
Prefer them to be on an ice floe heading out into the arctic waters….with their resumes
Dang…. best of luck to him and congrats on getting an extra $6,050,000 from the Red Sox, Buehler…. Buehler….
Let Craig cook!!!
Crap.
Thought he was going to the Northside as well…….
Jed has absolutely no excuse for not signing Tanner Scott. None. Zero, Zip, Zilch. Except the phobia in his own mind of signing Closers to serious contracts. Counsell has always had a top notch Closer. He probably won’t get one here either as long as Jed Freud is here.
You guys have a closer named Azozlay I thought.
Been in a Coma? Had TJ surgery and isn’t even in the Organization anymore. Although with Jed, He does like his pets and Alzolay was one of them.
Uncle, were any of Counsell’s closers signed to long term free agent deals?
Seem to remember Josh Hader getting a decent amount of change. Pretty sure Williams is going to get extended by the Yankees barring his arm falling off on National TV. He only needed the 2. in Milwaukee. The Cubs don’t have anybody who will get that title. They have a lot of POTENTIAL Closers, But none you can say with any certainty will be that this year.
Hader got paid by the Astros. His final year in Milwaukee was in arbitration. Was expected to get $14 million in arbitration in 2023 so they traded him at the deadline in 2022.
So they still played for Counsell when he was there. And Williams was Hader’s set up man and got the job when Hader left. But what’s your point exactly? Neither of those two guys are on the Cubs right now. Hodge might be that guy. But Uncle Jed thought Alzolay was that guy and Neris was plan B. That was a disaster that doesn’t need repeating. You’d think he would learn.
This would have been such a Hoyer move. I’d rather pay Buehler than trade for Luzardo. Jed has been in hiding for a couple weeks.
Dodgers dynasty ends today
I do laugh at everyone freaking out about the Dodgers, when they actually have done nothing but sign Snell. They lost Bueller, and Hernandez so far. They’re not a better team this off season.
lol.
vermont – When you win the World Series and you sign one of the top starting pitchers in the game, you don’t need to do much more.
I think Teo stays, but even if he leaves and they don’t replace him it’s not like Conforto is chopped liver.
as a giants fan watching conforto the last couple of years here – he has in fact been chopped liver
The Dodgers not only signed Snell, but have Gonsolin coming back, as well as Ohtani to pitch. And Glasnow, who did not pitch after August. A lot of them could break down and are not great bets for 150 innings, but I’ll go out on a limb and say that they will be pretty good in 2025. And WS favorites, again. 95 wins is almost a given, could be well over 100 if their pitchers have better than expected health. An absolute beast of a team, to which criticism is laughable.
@bag
That’s because you watched him play at home in SF, where most every hitter is a lesser version of himself….
Red Sox will sign Teo
Only snell? A top ten pitcher is an only? Espeiclally after the season you won it all lol. They replaced an above average outfielder for a top ten pitcher, they’ll be fine. And they got cheat codes and gonna end up Roki lol
*NEED – lol. This is the RH bat to go get. Maybe pickup a closer or another reliever and I think they did an ok job this offseason. It’s better than what they vommited last offseason with full throttle
Shoman – I hope you’re right, but I don’t see it unless they go through with trading Abreu or Duran.
Shoman5 – No they won’t.
I mean that is to be seen. the last thing I want is for the dodgers to succeed but if they do get sasaki and ohtani returns to his previous pitching performances you are looking at a much stronger pitching staff – considering you have snell, yamamoto, glasnow and add sasaki and ohtani – you kind of have 5 aces
Ohtani will not be pitching again.
They also signed a potential Ace called Ohtani to anchor the rotation along w Snell, Yamo and Mr Glass Joe Glasgow
sign Snell. They lost Bueller, and Hernandez
========================
I really like this signing for the RS, but continue to think that Snell is way, way better.
Joe: for the money paid to Snell basically had a good half season and was a major risk before that I disagree.
Snell is better but I think Walker will bounce back next year. He showed signs in the post-season similar to what Sale showed. If you want to talk about value, Buehler and Crochet could end up the steals of the off-season. I think we are a right handed third baseman from a really good off-season.
I don’t trust snell to suddenly turn into an inning eater as he gets older. that’s my biggest gripe with him.
As long as the Dodgers Bullpen can maintain its dominance, as it did in the 2024 playoffs, all they need out of Snell is 5 innings per start
2 guys motivated to get paid in Crochet and Buehler, the former who will extend and latter likely back on track to get a big deal next offseason. Nice work!
What is Giolito’s contract and health status?
Exercised his $19M player option for the upcoming season
Giolito is coming back around the end of May if all keeps going well.
He had Internal Brace surgery on his elbow on March 12th. That generally is thought to have a quicker recovery than full blown TJ surgery so that would put him in line to join the team sometime in the first half of the 2025 season provided he doesn’t have any setbacks in his recovery.
I liked beuhler as an option before the world series. Thought that might put him out of reach, but decent signing. I just worry about durability in the rotation though. Crochet, beuhler, houck, Bello, giolito have all had issues with health to various degrees. We do have decent depth now though.
Tang – Nahhh ….. the trifecta isn’t complete until they overpay Means.
Then they will have cornered the market on pitchers returning from major surgery.
Great move by BOS.
Most one year deals with rebound candidates are described as “low risk, high reward” potential… But $21MM for a year of Buehler after the season he just had seems questionable to me.
Meh. Despite what most red Sox fans will tell you, the red Sox aren’t cheap and don’t care about a contract like this. They just don’t want to give out years to 30+ pitchers. We’ve had so many contracts backfire on us it’s not funny.
So instead of paying for a guy who had success in recent seasons and dealing with a bad year or two at the end, they just keep paying a premium for recliminaton project pitchers.
The rotation has been an area of weakness because they keep doing dumb things like this.
“The rotation has been an area of weakness”
Crochet, Giolito, Buehler, Hauck, Bello.
So weak.
“has been”
And in the last few years, which one of those guys has had a good second half of the season?
Bello and that’s it?
Crochet had a horrible second half in 2024.
Houck took a big step back in the second half Of 2024.
Giolito had a horrible second half of 2023 and then was hurt.
Buehler has a bad 2024.
@joemoe You ever heard of the concept buy low sell high? Let’s talk about Buehler, had a few injury riddled seasons with last year being the healthiest he’s been in a long time. Buehler had a 3.50 ERA this past post-season. Feels very similar to Sale in 2023 and he goes on to have a Cy Young caliber year for Atlanta.
Next let’s visit Crochet and Houck, they didn’t fall apart until they surpassed their career highs in innings pitched for a season. Seems like a very legitimate reason for a collapse every pitcher goes through, it’s called hitting the wall for a reason.
Giolito had internal brace surgery which means 9 to 12 months of recovery time instead of 12 to 18 months with TJS. Still I wouldn’t expect him to be right until 2026. Sandoval is a good insurance piece for Giolito
Now you got Bello, Crawford, and Priester who have good upside
I don’t buy my stocks at peak prices and I don’t want Henry buying players after peak performances especially after age 30. I like how this rotation looks
Tang – I will LMAO if the Sox give a massive contract to the soon-to-be 31 year old Bregman.
The biggest issue Red Sox Nation has with all of these dumpster-diving acquisitions is the Red Sox insisted they would “get back to acting like the Red Sox” and stated they “could go over the LT threshold” blah blah blah ….. as usual, they deceived us.
So you are on record as saying that Crochet is a dumpster reclamation pickup, is that right? And a serious error because they gave up Teel. You’d simply have strapped the team down with more than has already been paid out for “two of Snell, Fried and Burnes.”
stel – Where? Show me where I said Crochet is a dumpster reclamation pickup. He’s a high risk pitcher because of his health issues and lack of a track record. If he’s good the next 2 years he will either walk or receive a massive contract extension. And yes of course the Red Sox package was an overpay, and took a potential star away from a premium position that they have zero depth with.
Where did I write that I demanded both Burnes and Snell? Show me. I would have been perfectly content with Snell and a shutdown closer, I’m happy they finally got Chapman. I’ve been saying all along instead of bringing in a Bregman or Santander they should let the kids play, Duran/Abreu/Anthony and Campbell in the infield. Give Casas and Yoshida a chance to re-establish their value. If you’re trying to accuse me of demanding they spend a lot of money, you’re full of crap. Snell and a shutdown closer would not have been much money, especially if they had traded for a closer like the Yankees did. And Snell didn’t require any loss of draft picks.
Now YOUR turn, put on record what you think of the Crochet/Sandoval/Buehler/Wilson moves. Put on record who else you want them to acquire. I’m bookmarking to hold you accountable next year, no matter what handle you use.
Fever Pitch Guy – Let me add to this record we are making.
The Crochet deal was a terrible deal and very short sighted. First, he’ll be a free agent in 2027 and be out of our price range so we gave up Teel, Montgomery and Meidroth, three future starters for two seasons of Crochet which is one more season than he has actually pitched as a starter!!! We made a huge over pay, we won’t make the playoffs with him on the staff and we’ll have wasted three of our best young star prospects. Giolito if successful will be with a new team in 2026 so we will have paid for his rehab so we can watch him walk if he has success or agree he was a bust if he stinks this year. Sandoval got the same deal but a year later. His contract is less but he still gets to rehab on our dollar and if he does well he’ll be gone and if he doesn’t we won’t want him in 2027. Buehler is rehabbing on our dollar as well. There is no way he signs with Boston if he makes a great comeback in 2025 and if he doesn’t pitch well like the last two seasons, we will have wasted $21Million on a long=shot.
For the money spent on Buehler, Giolito and Sandoval we could have signed a very good pitcher to at least a four year deal and had some continuity above Houck, Crawford and Bello in the rotation. Now we have a revolving door top of the rotation with nothing permanent except Houck if we actually extend him soon.
That’s my take on the bad choices by Breslow to build temporary rotations over the next two years. I’ll take one blue chip pitcher for the duration that matches the money wasted on these three pitchers and our offense would be much stronger with Teel, Meidroth and Montgomery graduating to the MLB in 2025 and 2026.
You and FPG are trolls and need to be i
He was top 10 in Cy Young votes in 2019 and 2021. The reward is really high here which is why the cost is more.
The hope is that he was just getting back to form in the playoffs after TJS. Better than signing a pitcher that needs surgery. They have the money to spend. Unfortunately the Minnesota major league club has lost a part of its already low income and for them 20m is probably 25 percent of total payroll.
Congrats and thank you for your service Walker!
FAs flying off the board now. Thanks for the Dodger memories. Goodluck in Beantown.
And to think if SD bounced the Dodgers in the first round buehler would’ve been lucky to get 10 mil haha
Bye bye Burnes. Need dollar bills and Henry is picking up pennies looking for a 1943.
1943 ?::: Uh oh, I thought it was 1942. Just threw all my 43’s away.
I like the deal for the Red Sox. They need ace potential and have the depth to cover it if him or Crochet miss time with injuries. I take him over Pivetta any day of the week.
No, the Red Sox do not need ace potential. They need an ace. What they have are four starters (Crochet, Beuhler, Giolito, and Houck) that still have to prove (or in a couple cases, re-prove) they can do it for an entire season and hopefully playoffs.
I’m rooting for them, but this feels like a souped up version of more of the same. I’d be happy to be proven wrong.
One more thing, they still need a credible RH bat.
The Red Sox don’t have the money to have a more dependable rotation so they went with upside. And that’s a good thing.
BITA – ??? They had like 60MM in space before the luxury tax this off-season. They had more than enough money to sign two top tier arms in FA and still trade for Crochet or another arm.
If they intended to spend all that money they wouldn’t have traded for Crochet.
It’s tacky for a fan to tell other fans how much their team has to spend. Thats lame.
The Red Sox have other team needs besides the rotation.
You said the Sox didn’t have money to have a.more dependable rotation, that’s just false.
Did this little loser mute me in the middle of a conversation?
All teams have money. But some choose to spend it.
Ok, how about the Red Sox didn’t have money [in their budget] to have a more dependable rotation. Assuming your teams budget lines up with the luxury tax has no bearing with reality.
Red Sox are top 3-5 most profitable teams in baseball. The fans are being generous by saying they should spend up to cap, they could spend way over
@MafiaBoss – considering Crochet just a “regular starter” and “more of the same” completely discredits your argument, that is just stupidity. Updated Vegas odds correctly have Crochet as the 3rd place favorite odds for winning 2025 AL Cy Young behind only Skubal and Cole, with nearly equal odds as Cole at 2nd. They also have Crochet *more than twice as likely* to win a CY than either both of Fried or Snell, so its safe to assume Burnes will fall behind Crochet as well if he signs in the AL.
Only once in Snell’s 9 seasons has he had a FIP better than 2024 Crochet’s 2.69 FIP, and that was this season for Snell but with big asterisk of only 104 IP. Fried came close just once in his 8 seasons, and that was 2022 when he finished 2nd in CY votes and 2.70 FIP.
Crochet is objectively an elite ace until he proves otherwise.
considering Crochet just a “regular starter” and “more of the same” completely discredits your argument,
==========================
I don’t know why posters do this. It happens pro and con, but the sheer hyperbole is these comments is insane. Anyone wanting to bet on Crochet just being a “regular”, just send me your money.
The thing with Crochet is he has so little on tape. What he has on tape is above reproach, but it is scant. I’m not sure what to make of it.
The thing with Crochet is he has so little on tape.
==================
I put some reliance on the fact that he was the overall #11, so this doesn’t come completely out of the blue.
Ignorant – Joe pointed out that a bad drafting organization picked him in the first round with the 11th pick. That means nothing to me. Do you think of the CWS as good drafting team? Then, of course, there is the small sample size that Joe has chosen to ignore. His college career is split between starting and relieving with very mediocre numbers ERAs above 4.00 and very high WHIPS and he goes 11th? You have to ask yourself why? Is it all the strike outs? Double digit Ks/9 are impressive but everything else wasn’t so once again I ask why in the first round? It makes no sense until you consider the fact that it was the COVID year. So it was a down year for drafting. That makes sense.
CWS is so desperate during COVID they moved him into relief immediately with just 12 games of experience. I guess it’s no shock that he needed TJ after the poor development plan the White Sox put him on.
When he comes back from surgery he relieves in 13 games in 2023 and can’t find the strike zone. Naturally, the brilliant White Sox pitching staff says lets make him a starter since he’s got a big K arm and we are desperate for starters.
They pushed his arm to TJ surgery in 2021 and now they are asking a reliever to start 32 games in 2024. Then, after the season of finding what appears to be a great Starting Pitcher for the future, they trade him to get 3 stud hitters rather than one supposedly stud pitcher. Makes no sense. If Boston found such a standout pitcher they wouldn’t trade him away even if he was a few years from free agency because they don’t do dumb things like that!!! hahaha
Nope. Joe has fallen hook line and sinker for the Crochet misdirect. I think the White Sox know they have over taxed his arm a second time and expect it to break down otherwise they would have kept him. Just like Buehler being released by LAD raises red flags as to where the second TJ has significantly lessened his stuff.
Wondering why a team released a guy who just had an incredible year considering his history is not unusual in these circumstances. It smart to be suspicious as to his durability and his ability to repeat his performance from 2024.
Sag – I’m a big picture guy, and the big picture I see today is that GAMBLING has infested MLB in a big way. Not just all the gambling sponsorships that get crammed into the faces of baseball fans on a regular basis, but the front offices who are willing to gamble on players before they perform well at the MLB level and before they prove they are healthy after returning from serious injury.
To send the premium package the Red Sox front office sent for a guy who has exactly TEN GOOD CAREER STARTS (at least 6 innings surrendering less than 3 runs) is an incredibly foolish gamble. The package they traded was worthy of a Skubal, not a Crochet.
But by failing to spend for any of Snell, Fried and Burnes they backed themselves into a corner where Chicago had all the leverage.
Could the Crochet trade work out? Sure, anything is possible. But it was by far the riskiest trade in terms of young talent the Red Sox have made in my lifetime.
Keep on trolling — you will always have FPG’s support. The real BoSox fans need to ignore so they can have a troll free discussion.
The real BoSox fans need to ignore so they can have a troll free discussion.
=========================
The discussions are so much smoother without just TWO of them. Just for fun, I checked three other discussions I have open. I have only 24 comments hidden out of a possible 585 comments, about 4%.
On this thread, I have 339 comments hidden via mute. That’s almost exactly 50% Those two must be typing 24/7.
jmi1950 – Are you a real BoSox fans. I doubt it. I don’t think of them as being so uninformed about the game.
Joe – Are you still mad that your predictions each year are so wrong people laugh at them Don’t be upset. Someday, if you hang around Fever Pitch Guy long enough you’ll learn a little something about the game and realize the glass isn’t half full and rose colored glasses make for house winnings in Vegas!!! hahahaha
I think there may have been better options through trade, but I am going to keep a positive mind. Not sure the quality of the depth they have and I assume this the final piece as far as starters are concerned. Once we get to spring training we will have a better idea.
One of the things I like about this signing is that it hopefully leaves a lot of payroll available to sign another elite RP.
Theoretically the Crochet trade is what will allow the Red Sox to spend bigger in other areas and produce a legit contender. And there are certainly a lot of good relievers left to sign.
That is my hope as well. Players are starting to get signed up quickly so they can’t wait too long. I still think there could be a trade on the horizon. With the amount of effort Breslow has been putting into the trade market, it just seems like something else is going to happen. I really thought it would be for a starter, but who knows.
Yes definitely and a right-handed bat. I guess the fact that it is only one year is a positive.
Burnes is signing with the Diamondbacks so it is not him. We gave eat too many injured pitchers that Breslow is counting, Sandoval, Buehler. Crochet has an injury history too and does not have a lot of Major innings on his arm. There are still a ton of question marks with this rotation. Again they went cheap as they usually do. Spendlow Breslow at his best. Where is all the money that they had allocated for Soto being used. What a bunch of bullsh:$ that was. Aside from Crochet I do not see how this starting pitching has improved! They still need a right handed hitter and Hernandez signed with the Dodgers.
So instead of going for Sasaki or Burnes they go get a rehab project. This is like Dan Duquette all over again. Lets sign guys coming back from injury that use to be good even though we have the money and prospect capital to go get a really good player.
Goose this doesn’t preclude Boston for going after Sasaki in fact I’m quite sure they will go after him. This probably means Burnes is out though.
Every team will attempt to sign Sasaki. It would be maleficence not to try. The Red Sox will show “interest,” but there isn’t anyone alive that thinks the Red Sox will land him. It is possible, but it would be the single most shocking story of the off season. When the time comes it will not be a shock who he picks.
William
Malfeasance?
Instead of writing that it would be considered a crime by any team not to try to sign Sasaki by their fans, I just wrote malfeasance. Means the same.
Malfeasance sure, you wrote “male-fiancee” the first time. LOL
Oh crap, didn’t notice. Thank you. I suppose any and all male fiancés would try to sign Sasaki as well.
Most of the time they pick the West Coast because they can fly back to Japan then fly an additional 4 hours from the East Coast. I have no confidence that Breslow is going to get him. He will underwhelm him and it will be all BS and Eye Wash for the fans. The typical Red Sox BS, we were in on it, gave it our best shot and did not get him.
In this scenario Sasaki can only get the max of international money from any team. The rest is a standard league contract (like a rookie).
That means that whatever team is trying to get needs selling points. Endorsements, track record, team quality, ease of life and support for himself and any family, if any, and a clearly defined and guaranteed role on the team.
I see the Red Sox getting Sasaki as being on par with a miracle that the Vatican would be forced to investigate. Move along from this. This isn’t a bidding process on a long-term deal where we can blow him away with cash.
You are correct but with the current track record what does your gut tell you? The 2003 version of this ownership would not recognize what it is today.
The Red Sox ownership in 2003 was desperately hungry to win and you could feel the energy and drive they had. Not anymore. Not even close. I would go as far as to say they purposely have not tried in a few years. I have no doubt they are not trying this year either.
Bruin1012 – OK i’ll bite. WHY? Why would the ownership break the $20Millionish AAV per year rule for Sasaki?
If you mean they will go after Sasaki like they did Soto and put in a fake bid, I can agree with you on that one.
Based on the numbers, it sure seems like they are done but I would still like to see Tanner Scott added. But that’s just me. I think the pen needs beefing up.
Saga- Sasaki doesn’t cost money not really he’s not going to get more then 7.5 million or the max a team has to spend in international money. As such theoretically any team can sign him. Do I think he signs with Boston statistics say no but if he choose Boston as his preferred destination then yes ownership can easily sign him. This is why I say Boston will certainly try and sign him just like all other 29 teams will try. He costs next to nothing.
Bruin1012 – Doesn’t he get to choose based on what is offered to him? And can’t the METS just dump a huge contract in his lap to convince him to sign with them.
The initiial $7.5 just opens the door to him but all the teams get to flash what is waiting for him inside? Right? So why wouldn’t he go to the club that has the most behind the door? I can’t picture the international money as being the deciding factor in this international signing. That’s why I didn’t think we had a chance because behind the door, the METS look to be the team to beat and Boston wouldn’t compete successfully against them.
Last year they traded away the guy with injuries who used to be good for the reliable guy.
How did that work out?
Last year they signed Giolito to a $39 million deal. Saux gonna Saux.
Goose
So instead of going for Sasaki
================================
ROTFLMAO!!!
All 30 teams are going for Sasaki.
Every single team wants Sasaki. He is choosing a select few to meet with. It’s not that other teams are going after him harder. It’s all about his preference.
Red Sox Center for Rehabbing Pitchers adds on yet another arm.
Didn’t pitch over 6IP once last season. Both bWAR and fWAR had him below 0.
Let’s spend 21MM and hope Buehler can regain his 2021 form instead of spending on guys who were actually good in recent memory.
Last year they Red Sox traded away the injured formerly good pitcher to go get Giolito who was actually good in recent memory. And…..that was a mistake…….
Go look at Giolito’s second half of 2023. He was horrible. Why they gave a 40MM deal to a guy with a second half era near 7 is beyond me.
Still traded away Sale. The center for rehabbing pitchers probably should have kept that one around right?
So I believe a Sale traded needs to happen because the most likely outcome was he would get hurt somehow and the entire extension would have been a waste. They got back some value for his extension, although the return of Grissom looked bad at the time and somehow looks worse now.
By trading Sale, the Sox signaled they were punting on 2024 before the season started. If they were trying to compete in 2024, then keeping Sale and flipping him at the deadline would have been the move to make.
Giolito went through a divorce in the second half of 2023.
Joe what are you talking about?
If they kept Sale they wouldn’t have sold at the deadline they would have added for the playoff push.
What is the part that isn’t clear?
Going into 2024, the Sox decided that they were building for the future instead of competing for the playoffs.
If the Sox were trying to compete in 2024, keeping Sale made the most sense. If he stays healthy, he’s a top of the rotation arm. If the team is doing poorly, he can be flipped at the deadline for some good prospects. If he does poorly and the team is out of it, then the Sox get a big nothing out of his massive extension.
By trading Sale and replacing him with Giolito (second half era near 7 in 2023), they punted on the season.
Then why did they trade for ONeill who was basically the hitter version of Sale?
Trading Sale was a colossal mistake. We agree with that right???
Bingo, great point! Divorce sometimes really affects onfield performance, which also combined with an injury, can derail a career.
HOFer Frank Thomas’ career was interrupted by two terrible seasons while he was quietly going through something similar. Once the divorce happened, he absolutely dominated again in 2000, losing out on a third MVP to cheater Jason Giambi.
HOFer Ryne Sandberg handled things differently with his divorce, first officially retiring from baseball to reduce his income to $0. He then served up papers to his scumbag wife leaving her with a lot less, only returning to the game after his divorce was finalized. Mad respect to Ryno!
Never heard that story before. Why is the wife a scumbag?
She was banging Palmiero
Chris sale pitcher more innings last year than the previous three years combined. How many times has that happened?
baseball-reference.com/players/s/salech01.shtml
Imagine a top 2 of Sale n Crotchet
With that offense, that’s a team that can play w anyone in a 5 or 7 game series
And Dave Martinez
And allegedly another teammate/current manager in NL East.
All – Gotta ask? Do you think Giolito had his elbow twisted in the divorce proceedings?
Goose – EVERY TIME SOMEONE GOT AWAY FROM CORA AS A MANAGER is my guess!!!!
MRSHOWTIME – Not if the 3B can’t field the routine balls hit because Sale uses the low inside pitch to righties to get ground outs to 3B that Devers never handled but ATL did.
Two great pitchers can’t erase the worst 3B in history.
Dave Martinez, former teammate who signed with the crosstown SOX that next year, 1995’ish. Open secret across the organization at the time.
That is the first time I have ever heard anyone refer to Giolito as good in recent memory. He came into the league as the single worst starter in major league baseball in 2018. He improved into a 3.50ish ERA pitcher for a couple of years (4 years ago) then slid into a high 4+ ERA and completely collapsed in 2023.
For two years he was a solid mid to lower rotation piece on a bad team. On a good team he would have been a 4 or even a 5 instantly.
Safe to say Giolito was not at the top of most Sox fans wishlist. Breslow must have seen something that he thought he could turn around. We do sometimes get a surprise so I will try to be optimistic and see what we get from him when he is ready to pitch. If he already had arm issues, the surgery could have a positive impact.
Definitely not a signing that makes you feel like we shored up the front of our starting lineup with another ace. Still not giving up hope that they are not going to make a more memorable move soon.
Not a bad deal. Not a great deal. Would have preferred Eovaldi.
I wonder if he notified the Dodgers he was going to sign elsewhere, or there has been no conversation with Dodger management concerning his contract and everyone in Dodger management just figure he would sign with LA.before ST. Makes me wonder now about Hernandez re-signing with LA now, are the Dodgers just assuming that their FA’s are going to sign just because they are LA.
Dodgers didn’t give him the QO, so they obviously weren’t willing to give him this much. Just a case of the Red Sox valuing him more highly; nothing the Dodgers could have done in this case.
high – This is proof the Dodgers, who have a damn good reputation for projecting pitchers, didn’t think any other team would overpay by offering Buehler as much as the Red Sox did.
If the Dodgers thought he was worth $21M, they’d have offered the QO to get the compensation when he signs elsewhere.
Nobody knows Buehler better than the Dodgers.
…or the Dodgers already have a lot of starting pitchers under contract and don’t need Buhler. They have Ohtani, Snell, Yamamoto, Glasnow, Gonsolin, May and they may get Roki.
All – Bueher has always been ahead of Gonsolin and May until this past year. That speaks volumes to the issue that they might have seen and Boston didn’t . There is precedent for these types of mistakes. Remember how high Bloom was on Jeter Downs? Yep, I asked the question in early 2020,
“If he’s so good why did they trade for him from Cincy and then almost immediately dump him in the Mookie giveaway?”
30 Parks
Not a bad deal. Not a great deal. Would have preferred Eovaldi.
===========================
I’d have liked that as well, but that was when I thought Eovaldi was going to get like $40-44M/2. $75M/3, for a guy his age, is pretty high.
I will be very curious to see what Burnes ends up getting. Will he get the massive contract he is hoping for or did he overplay his hand. Not sure who is left that would pay him $250 million+.
Joe – Eovaldi was always under valued by the Red Sox except when he got $17M a year. He was a work horse, a clubhouse guy and willing to do whatever Cora asked to help the team win.
YAY!!!! Full throttle is now Full Cripple!!!!
100%. I’m upset they are going to suck for a while but hopefully it weeds out this generation of ignorant fans who think the Yankees should get every player and win every year.
You know the idiots who chant “Deeeewickkk Jetahhh”
Am I crazy for thinking this is a lot? Buehler has had a good career but didnt look great coming off TJS last year
It is a lot. It’s essentially the QO. Buehler has more upside than most of the pitchers in this tier (Manaea, Flahrety) but also looked the worst last year. The recovery from TJ seemed harder than expected, as I believe he was pushing to come back in 2023 and just couldn’t do it.
If Buehler magically regains his 2021 form, it’ll look like a great deal. If he looks like his 2024 self, it will look like a massive overpay.
But at the same time, people are whining that Henry should overpay for Burnes!
A one year overpay is better than a five-year overpay And that’s assuming an eight year contract and he’s good for three maybe four of those years. And by the way, don’t get me wrong. I think they probably should do it, but it will be a four or five year overpay in the end so this Bueller contract to me is not an issue.
I assume that unless Burnes price drops significantly, the Red Sox are done looking for starters.
Joemo – Buehler through age 26 was a stud. 2021 was great.
Since then, his impeccable control is gone. His whole career he always gave up fewer hits than innings pitched but not since 2021.
People blew up Bieber a year ago for having his first slightly bad year in 2023 after being great his whole career. Now we are looking at Buehler coming off two consecutive terrible years and people are positive he can rebound like Giolito, Sandoval and all of Breslow’s mash unit? WHY?
We all can hope and that’s great but Breslow has invested $100 Million dollars of payroll to pay 3 pitchers for 1 or 2 seasons to come back to heights they haven’t seen in several years. Do you realize that’s the equivalent of a blue chip pitcher for 3 years? That’s a waste of money. Breslow should sign up with Gambler’s Anonymous. $100Million on non blue chip players is just as dumb as the 3 albatross contracts Bloom did. We changed the name and the motivation when we hired a new GM but we are still throwing away money hand over first so maybe the $20Million AAV rule is a smart one. That’s a scary thought.
Maybe ownership should just consider hiring experienced people to do the GM and Manager job so there aren’t so many mistakes you can’t count them all?.
Probably is but the cost of pitching is crazy in FA and if it fails, who cares it’s just a 1 year deal. Most teams would pay a premium to keep the contract length short.
They needed an actual top of the rotation arm, not another rehab project.
They’ve done this for years and every year the rotation is lacking because the rehab projects never work out.
If the Red Sox had kept their own rehab project last year instead of trading him away they probably would have made the playoffs.
Except for the 4 World championships and playoff opportunities they have had the last twenty years.
Even though it’s the same owners, there has been a drastic shift in mentality from those 4 WS teams to now. They don’t care about winning, and haven’t since around 2018.
And here comes the entitlement…..
It looks like one year contracts cost a little more.
He had a lot of teams interested. They were thinking like BOS. He is an excellent Lower Risk High Reward candidate
It’s an overpay to not have the do the player option in the second year nonsense. And since the Dodgers did not give Bueller a QO, does that mean that if he pitches well that the Red Sox can??
I don’t understand why Pivetta rejected the QO. Which contender is left to give him even 3/50 and give up draft picks?
That’s what I like about this signing. We can QO him next year.
IRT Pivetta, several other similar SPs are hauling in $60M, so I expect to see him get paid. I think teams are waiting on Sasaki, and then Burnes will get traction, and then after that, the 2nd tier guys will see some action.
JoeBrady – that essentially makes it 2/43 with a mutual option for the second year. If Buehler gets hurt or is horrible, the Red Sox walk away, and if Buehler is 2021 Buehler then he walks away and the Red Sox get a pick.
A smart way of doing it on both sides.
Joe – i understand the “savvy” move behind getting a draft pick if he leaves next year. But, is that what we want, expect, from our team? A pick that is one more lottery ticket?
If we believe in this guy, if he’s going to pitch well this year, why would we want him to leave?
That said, i’m glad he’s here
The sox probably wouldn’t want him to leave but I’d bet that Buehler was looking for a one year contract anyway. If he gets hurt the sox can walk away and if he does well they could decide to re up with him. If he choses to leave they get a pick. It’s a smart signing.
@JoeBrady It’s my understanding that you can only be given the Qualified Offer one time. Am I incorrect in that understanding?
That is correct but has Buehler ever had a QO placed on him?
The LAD didn’t offer a QO.
Sad.Sox 3
But, is that what we want, expect, from our team? A pick that is one more lottery ticket?
=====================
Basically yes, for a couple of reasons.
1-The first is that this is what Buehler wants. This is like Gleyber’s signing. Some players won’t sign a l/t contract coming off of a bad year.
2-If he turns out to be a perfect pitcher for this environment, we can always offer him a contract.
Toronto is a spot unless they suddenly increase their offer for Burnes to 275-300mil or give Santander an ill-advised 5yrs 9 figure deal that will be well above bids of clubs they’d rather join.
Brick – yes. If Buehler is on the Sox for the entire season, he is eligible for the QO.
To be eligible for the QO:
1. The player cannot have received a QO before
2. they are on one team for the entire year. (Not traded)
So LAD didn’t give him one last year and MLB.com listed him under their “NOTABLE PLAYERS WHO DID NOT RECEIVE QO”
So if he does well, the Sox can still offer them a QO and get some money back.
—
And re:Pivetta same thoughts. I think Pivetta could have gotten a nice deal if he accepted the QO and then became a FA in a weaker class next season. But there aren’t many suitors left, now that he has the pick attached. I am very interested to see where he ends up and for how much, because prior to the QO 3/45 seemed about right.
Joemo, I know that the Cubs won’t go after Pivetta with the QO attached, as they are going to graduate most of their top-100 guys in the next two years and need to refill the A ball ranks. Their low A team was dreadful this year.
Yeah, I’m thinking maybe one of the revenue sharing teams, although I can’t seem to find that list right now. Maybe Baltimore? We shall see.
Is the rule still in place where the comp goes away? Pivetta might sign when the season starts and there’s no QO comp?
The O’s would likely be giving up a top 35 pick assuming Burnes and Santander sign elsewhere. I doubt they do that to pay Pivetta market value.
They might be this year.
Could be. Fried is a good pitcher but he is due for TJS and that’s really the only acquisition this offseason. Goldschmidt is past his prime just like Rizzo was so that’s a lateral move. Don’t see how any moves made make up for losing Soto though.
Replacing a closer who blew 13 saves should help. A lot.
Lord – So true! A shutdown closer is very, very valuable.
It’s the only position where if you do your primary job (saving games) it leads to a guaranteed win.
No other position can say that (if positions were able to talk LOL).
Luke Weaver was as good as any closer in the game once they handed it over to him. That was not the reason they got smoked by the Dodgers.
I don’t think any team who is seriously trying to contend should punt on closer but they have some serious glaring holes elsewhere – 1b they just signed Rizzo 2.0…..old and way past his prime, 2b/3b/CF (whichever Jazz doesn’t play) needs to be filled and they need OF depth.
The reason the Yanks got smoked by the Dodgers was one man….Freddie Freeman….I don’t know what Boone was thinking letting him hit in the 7th inning on after the first 2 games. Freddie was hot, Ohtani was hurt and Mookie wasn’t lighting the world on fire….
Strawman, @Yankes4Life22.
You’re not a Yankee fan anyway. Go back to your main ID.
I thought the Yankees would lose the series because the Dodgers were a slightly stronger team. I was hoping to face the Mets because a subway series would be fun, but I also think the Yankees would have taken the Mets out in five, six games max. My Dodger-fan friend was very concerned if the Yankees got it back to LA for a game six because it was clear Judge’s bat had woken up. It was the defense that did them in, which was my concern. They’re greatly strengthening that side. Losing Soto’s bat hurts, getting rid of his glove in RF and Judge back to right will be a huge defensive upgrade. That’s part of the improvements they’re making.
That and Fat Joe
I think the Yankees literally lost two close games on bad defense. One was when Ohtani hit a double and took third on the bobbled catch in the throw in to second, That allowed Ohtani to score on a sacrifice fly and let the Dodgers back into the game. The other game was the last game it looked like a Little League team playing defense. The goofs also called the Dodgers back into the game. Give credit to the Dodgers for taking advantage and doing all the little things, they played clutch baseball!
I think the Sox have a really good shot at winning their division this year. Loaded offense and vastly better pitching.
Great signing for Boston.. They’ll get a bulldog on the mound and isn’t scared of the big moment. Disappointed is an understatement but this is a business as much as it is a game. Best of luck to Walker and thanks for the memories as a Dodger.
This could be a very good signing. He might show as he did in the post-season. If it goes bad, they can always put him in the bullpen, and it’s just a year. If it goes well, both he and the Red Sox profit. The Mets just gave Manaea $75M/3. He’s probably better–but this is a decent gamble
Great deal only 1 year but massive upside sure better than committing 250 mil to burnes since a deal like that would be used as an excuse down the road
I think this solidifies their rotation now, which means they aren’t pursuing Burnes anymore. Will be interesting to see if they make a big move for a right handed bat now, or if they are done. Hopefully the former.
No more talk of casas being traded, moving devers to first or signing Bregman now the rotation is full
After Crochet ( and he has some potential issues too ) there is a lot of uncertainty and question marks.
IF THEY think this rotation is full/ complete, they have no intention of winning the division and praying n playing for a WC
vlad jr extension would be the nail in the coffin, but as for now thats what they are clinging to
Another player that wouldn’t sign with the Yankees? Or did they not even bother? Maybe they offered him Stroman ?
Why would the Yankees need another starter?
The Yankees are trying to unload Stroman, and if they succeed they will need another starter at that point. But I don’t think anyone wants Stroman even for free if they have to take his entire salary. Maybe the Nationals or if the A’s still have to add salary to hit their $105M payroll to qualify for revenue sharing.
Damn Dodgers
Is Bregman to the Red Sox next, or does that wrap up the spending for the year?
Quite possible. The years of thin drafts and shipping out talent and lopsided trades and absurd taking on of overpriced contracts sooner or later will cost for a while. The DJLM, Donaldson, Rizzo, Stanton, and on we go. The Sosa trade was a calculated risk and I’m not faulting Cashman. Some of these other moves? A deep pocket doesn’t translate to shrewdness.
That and they don’t have as deep of pockets as they used to. They are on budget and they have shown repeatedly they will ignore glaring holes on the team bc they won’t spend past their budget.
The problem is that if they don’t want to spend over a limit, then they might as not be spending as much….because the CBT and draft picks. Pick a direction.. I get the original idea of Stanton–Twin Towers and perhaps his decline is steeper than anticipated. It was a blunder but I can see some logic in it.. Some of these other moves….
Mikenmn – Agreed. Shrewdness and Cashman do not belong in the same sentence. Maybe Cashman wants players closer to his own age. Lol
The Yankees are filled with past their prime aging veterans. So what if they made it to the WS in a very down year for the AL. They were never going to win against a Dodger team that was so much better. Two of the best three Yankee hitters from last year are gone.
Cashman excels at spending money. That is pretty much it. My wife’s entire family is good at that too. That sure does NOT make them shrewd!
Red Sox only sign guys they can “fix.” Hence restoration project. I think this is one of their better ones, let’s see
Mr. Buehler…God bless you and your family. You were always at your best when it counted most.
Not a bad signing at all for them imo. Should be fine following the surgery for the season. Plus those one year prove it deals tend to be well rewarded.
Luzardo, Manea, Buehler. Here comes the run on pitchers following the big run on 1B. Last minute Christmas shoppers! Next up OFers!
Two World Series titles, big games pitched by the best big game pitcher the Dodgers have had since Hershiser.
Gonna miss him. But it’s a helluva way for him to finish his time here. Big Game Buehler. Buetane. Walker F’ing Buehler.
Enjoy him, Red Sox fans. He’s a fun guy to have on your team.
Massive overpay
I would have liked him on the orioles but I was thinking 10-13 mill
Paging Mr. Bailey……Mr Andrew Bailey please step forward and receive your pet project for 2025! I think Buehler will pitch well for Boston….
This is a seriously excellent move!
Now get a right handed bat and a closer.
Really wanted the Yankees or Mets to take a flyer on him, I bet this ends up being one of the better signings this offseason. His ceiling is just so high.
I am surprised at these dollars and years that the Mets didn’t get him.
Been hearing that for twenty years.
They only won 82 games two years ago and finished in fourth place. So I guess people were right.
He’ll yeah!! Huge pickup for the Sox!
This is why the Red Sox suck and will continue to do so. What an awful pickup. He sucked other than a few innings in the playoffs. Such a bad organization
ferris better
Well, I believe the Sox are now “out” on Burnes, but I have been wrong before. Everything I am reading suggests that Crochet is a “potential” number 1 starter, but as of now it looks like they have several number 2s or 3s with 1 potential. Overall, I like the signing particularly as it is only 1 year.. They still have some money left for the right handed bat. If they get that, 90 plus wins next year.
21+ million to this guy…FO could of used that toward signing a useful pitcher like Flaherty. WTH
If he can stay healthy, this is a good signing. However, outside of Bryan Bello, is there a starting pitcher on the current Red Sox roster that doesn’t have a history of arm injuries? Guess they are out or were never really serious about signing Corbin Burnes.
21 million is a lot for an injury prone pitcher who is going to give you an era over 4.
He’s not injury-prone, and has a ceiling higher than every pitcher on the Red Sox other than Crochet, and it’s a one-year deal, which comes essentially without risk.
But other than that, spot-on comment…..
Which means even if he does stay healthy and pitches good. The Red Sox are just going to lose him to free agency lol.
They would get a draft pick. This has Theo’s handwriting all over it. Not enough teams engage in tail-end benefits.
Great pickup
Love this. If he is as good as I think he will be , hopefully the Sox will have the inside track to extend him — if not, they make him a QO and get a draft pick.
Bello, Giolito, Buehler and Crochet sounds like a pretty good rotation to me.
Houck?
June 2023 to May 2024 doesnt seem like two years.
Well if he pitches like he did vs Yankees in WS… great!!
They need to get Teoscar and they will have had a very good off season
Would’ve preferred Flaherty on 3/75ish deal, but we do love our one-and-done contracts. I like all the upside on this deal. Plus Buehler adds some experience to the staff, for what that’s worth. It’s a young group. I’m fine w this deal.
Interested to see which RH bat they get. And probably could use a closer to stack w Whit, Chapman and Hendricks.
Since the article mentions him, I am getting the sense that the two would be mega contract Free Agents who will prove to be the odd men out and have to settle for heavily discounted deals will be Alonso and Burnes.
Not sure why with Burnes, but I feel like the hype around him has severely cooled off and he could be looking at a far more modest contract in the grand scheme of things.
Don’t get me wrong, I think it will still be very lucrative- like 4 years/$130M or 5 years/$175M or something, but those 6 years/$210M or 7 years/$245M etc projections might now be a bit excessive, going by the market.
Alonso is, I think, in a very similar position, but he could be looking at like 1 year/$30M or 2 years/$50M or maybe 5 years/$125M at best…. and going by the deals signed by Carlos Santana and Paul Goldschmidt, the league might very well be like “1 year $12.25M take it or leave it, Alonso.”
Red Sox liked how he played well in New York, so they’re hoping to have him pitch in New York more often. Line him up for every Yankee stadium game. Between him and the Yankee defense, they’ll win every game. Can’t wait for Cole to not cover 1B again!
York – Even better, can’t wait for Cole to face Devers again!
And for Devers to steal on Cole again!
That’s a shock! I did not expect the Red Sox to actually spend money. Can’t wait for the first Cole – Buehler pitching matchup.
Didn’t Beckett have a 5 plus era for 2006?? Worth a shot… cause we all know how Becketts. 2007 was!!!
Good luck, dude. Dodger fans will forever remember that save in Game 5 against the Yanks.
“Why put off for tomorrow what can be done today?”
-Brian Cashman
That last inning of gm 5 WS is the best Buehler looked post TJ surgery. Like Buehler, but didn’t look the same all season long. Coming back frm TJ is not automatic n this was his 2nd one. Not surprised he couldn’t find longterm deal. If he can pitch like he did before, was Dodgers #1 starter for cpl playoff runs, then he may silence the doubters n secure big contract.
Expensive pillow contract but if the Buehler that pitched in the World Series shows up it’s worth it
Red Sox Trainers must be on the verge of quitting.
Good for walker! Thanks for everything walker. Good luck and may your stuff return.
The upside play of the offseason.
The Yankees will win the east. Of that I have no doubt.
The Red Sox will win the east. Of that I have no doubt.
With what rotation? The Orioles don’t have a starting rotation and their kids strike out too much. Not quite the hitting juggernaut everyone expected.
lol
Last year they said that and they finished first in the division and the best record in the American League. 2025 will repeat all over again.
That is true. I was here last year predicting the Yankees would win the division, with Orioles fans insisting the O’s would win by 10, and Mets and Red Sox fans predicting the Yankees for last.
They will win the AL East if they’re good at drawing the inside straight.
I’m in the middle of the comments I see above…
While Buehler in his prime would have been the second best pitcher in the rotation, easily better than Houck, I don’t think that is a realistic expectation for 2025. If I’m feeling pessimistic, I slot him behind a healthy Houck and a healthy Bello. If I’m a little more optimistic, I acknowledge that he might be a little better than Bello. I see him as replacing Pivetta. I can live with that.
Note that the $21.05M that they are paying him is exactly what they offered Pivetta (Pivetta declined) and exactly what the Dodgers *didn’t* offer Buehler. If he pitches well, they tender him a qualifying offer next year, and either he returns on another short deal or the Red Sox pick up draft compensation. It’s a low-cost and low-risk deal.
What this *doesn’t* accomplish is to “raise the ceiling”. You could argue that Crochet did that, however the Red Sox don’t project to be within 5 wins of either the Yankees or Orioles. Without any big signings, they were never going to compete for the division in 2025. “Full Throttle” last year never materialized. “Raise the Ceiling” this year is equally an illusion. This is a club that will likely be slugging it out with the Mariners and Royals for that last Wild Card spot. It is not a team that has any realistic hope of playing deep into October.
Bregman is maybe the only impact player left on the board, and he wouldn’t improve the team by THAT much. For that matter, I’d rather blow $250M on Burnes than $200M on Bregman. Neither contract will look good in five years, but at least Burnes has a chance to be a difference-maker over the next four. Bregman just isn’t that great a player.
So I guess we’re looking forward to another 81-85 win season? And rooting for Henry to make a fat profit that he can invest in the PGA or whatever other interests the FSG is pursuing? I dunno, I’ll save my money and let others cheer for that one. I’m not willing to spend money at Fenway to enrich owners that refuse to invest in their product.
I think it may be as simple as they refuse to sign players to contracts they are pretty confident will be underwater roughly half way through the deal. Maybe they will be willing to do that for a player that they think is a missing piece to a championship team.
I don’t deny that is their logic, but hoping to put together a championship team WITHOUT signing elite free agents is a tall task. Especially when you let your homegrown stars walk (or trade them away).
It seems pretty clear the Red Sox don’t intend to go past the luxury tax threshold, which puts them at least $60M in payroll behind their competition. You may think the Yankees are not spending wisely, but when you spend an extra $60M every year you don’t HAVE to spend wisely.
The Red Sox have extended homegrown and I think they will continue to do that. I don’t think we can read more into things than they don’t like signing deals they think are bad.
..and that they don’t intend to be serious contenders in 2025. As you note above, you operate differently when you intend to contend. Looking at 81 to 85 wins. Guess that’s an improvement over 78?
Suit – I like extending homegrown guys too. The Braves did an admirable job with Acuna, Albies, Riley, Harris, Olsen…
So far, Raffaele and Bello.
What we are seeing wis Kennedy, et al, hiring guys in the FO they can either control or push around. What Dombrowski was/is and Anthropolous in Atlanta do is create and follow a plan.
IMO, the last two Sox GM’s were throwing as much as possible at the wall and hoping some stuck. So far we have a floor full of wet spaghetti
I don’t think we can say for sure what is going on from here, but I think Breslow, Bailey and Willard are looking at each pitcher in detail before deciding who to pursue and what to offer them.
Suit – yes,they are smart guys and they do their jobs.
But, why does it have to be more of, “we can fix this guy” or “he’ll “bounce back” rather than “this guy is a stud”? LOL
Sad: I think they evaluate the risk of injury for each pitcher (based on pitching mechanics and injury history) and also project their production and weigh it all against the cost. I think they then make what they think is the most responsible decision and make an offer (for what they are willing to risk) or move on. Fried got the largest deal ever for a LH pitcher. Is he really worth that. I doubt it. No team likes Boras’ asking price for Burnes right now. A long-term, high value contract that goes bad can really hold a team back for years.
TFF17 = Just a quick clarification please.
Is the Giolito deal “under water” because it sure seems like it is to me. We paid $40 Million for a guy who may only get 20 starts in two years.
is the Sandoval deal “under water” already since he’s got nearly the same deal as Giolito?
Is the Buehler deal “under water” unless he returns to 2021 form?
I just listed for ALL IN THE SUIT THAT YOU WEAR three contracts that didn’t wait to the halfway point to be under water. Is that acceptable because it’s shorter?
Was Price’s or Sale’s contract under water before CORA was named the manager? See I think the general understanding of what makes for a good contract is highly confused.
Not one of Breslows $100 Million in contract gambles are good contracts on the surface. They could be but unlike a blue chip contract, their is a TON of risk.
This is not a championship team. This is not a championship organization. This is a mediocre team run by a bunch of clowns who have no idea since they fired Dombrowski on how to construct a winning team. They are floundering by wasting $100 Million on three guys for 1 or 2 season when they could have added three years of a blue chip player instead. Whether it’s a fielder or pitcher, we could have either a SP1 signed for 3 years for the same money or a stud 3B that can field so Devers can go to DH for that amount of money. Instead, we have a guy who already missed one of his two years and should be back for 15 to 20 starts in year two after not pitching for several years. If he is awesome, we will have provided him with a vehicle to spin his success into a contract not in Boston. The Sandoval deal is a clone of the Giolito deal. Half the value for the contract and no longevity with the player if he succeeds. The Buehler deal is even more offensive because we are paying for his rehab and if he is successful, he too will get a big contract elsewhere.
Do any of the three provide Boston with what it will take to win a ring? Absolutely not. What about a division? NOPE what about making the playoffs and being one and gone? Yep maybe. Does that set us up for 2026? Absolutely NOT.
There is no reason to do these contracts except to appease the fans to a small degree and pretend we are somewhat competing which we aren’t since we dumped 3 star prospects for a guy who might pitch here two years. He’s not even as good as the guy we sent to ATL along with $17Million dollars.
COMPLETE CHAOS. This level of incompetence usually isn’t tolerated but throughout this hot mess, the owners keep raking in the profits and laugh at the fans all the way to the bank.
Giolito will provide little or no value on the deal. Not sure about the others. The Sandoval deal is more comparable to the Paxton deal or the Hendriks deal, paying for a year of rehab followed by (hopefully) a year of performance.
All deals have risk and the larger deals have more risk, because any player is potentially worth nothing. I agree with you that they should give a little more attention to the “reward” though. Best scenario with Buehler is that he gives them one solid year and a draft pick. The upside on Snell or Burnes is much greater, as either could deliver 5-6 solid years.
Crochet only makes sense if they sign him to an extension, and the best time to do that would be thiss winter. I’m assuming nobody would be so incompetent as to trade that package and then NOT extend him.
Wait – You mean like Soto? haha
It’s my opinion that the 2027 roster will not include:
1 – Crochet (left for Free Agency elsewhere)
2 – Sandoval ( Either failed and cut or successful FA elsewhere)
3 -Buehler (left for Free Agency after 2025)
4 – Giolito (left for Free Agency after 2025)
This is a real possibility with the way these deals were structured. We will have become a rehab organization who can’t keep starting pitchers.
Adding Bregman will improve the defense which was one of their biggest issues last year. I would appreciate the glove for sure and his bat would play fine.
They need to find a taker for Masa. That might be the key move of the off season. It would clear so many options and increase Bregmans value.
Yes, Bregman would help. Just don’t think it is enough to close the gap with the Orioles or Yankees.
There’s no gap.
Sure, no gap. More like a chasm. The Red Sox aren’t within five wins of the Yankees with this current roster.
I think the Yankees may crash and burn in 2025. They have an older team and older starting rotation.
tff – I know I’m always overly optimistic, but are you saying Campbell and Anthony won’t have a measurable impact next season?
If so, I have to respectfully disagree.
Replacing O’Neill with Anthony and replacing Grissom/Valdez/Gasper/Wong/Sogard/Hamilton all at 2B with Campbell could be worth 7 or so wins.
Not just because they are better players, but also because the revolving door at 2B will stop which means Story and Campbell can bond as a strong middle infield combo. It’s not easy for any shortstop to be forced to work with six different 2B (I know Story didn’t work with all of them this year).
TFF17 – To be fair, they probably aren’t within 15!!
All- I was just rolling on the floor laughing at your comment then I thought to myself, you might actually believe that.
YIPES. The Yankees are again the beast of the East with the Orioles not close enough to lasso them. The remainder of the division is a joke so there is a huge beta on wins in 2025.
TB and TOR could pad Boston’s wins but then again, just the opposite could be true too. The west will be a far better division as will the Central with the AL East having 3 of the lower bottom tier teams in baseball. I could see 3 draft picks in the top 12 from BOS, TB and TOR.
Fever Pitch Guy – I agree except for the wild card – CORA. There is no way to tell whether someone would force him to do anything logical.
I would simply choose Campbell based on his bat and athleticism to be the new 3B of the future in Boston and move Devers to DH. It fixes the defense and adds a big right handed bat and some speed to the line-up. He played 44 innings at 3B in the minors without error and like Anthony has the bat to start the season with the big club.
As much as I don’t like Grissom I think you give a start at 2B first and if he fails you mentioned many other options. Without Rafaela in the line-up there are some big numbers to be replaced so Anthony will need to avoid big slumps early along with Campbell, Story, Grissom, Wong and Abreu.
Then we’ll need to avoid injuries to make all this work enough to have a shot at the last WC spot.
Sag – The beauty of baseball is it’s never played on paper!
I am VERY bullish on Campbell and Anthony, but ultimately team health is always a major factor in standings.
I do appreciate your humour though ;O)
Sag – If you’re responding to the person to whom I think you’re responding, I’m sooooo glad I don’t see his posts anymore!
You’re a better man than I for tolerating him!! Hahaha!!!
Sag – Fantastic post! Yeah I haven’t given up on Grissom yet, I’d like to see what he can do with the bat. I don’t have high hopes on defense though.
Injuries is always a HUGE factor! They may have made the WC this year if Casas or Devers hadn’t gotten hurt.
Fever, this isn’t the place for detailed analysis…
Replacing O’Neill with Anthony is an upgrade, because I don’t expect O’Neill to hit as well in 2025 as he did in 2024, but at the same time I don’t expect Anthony’s rookie season to be appreciably better than what O’Neill did last year. Anthony is very young still, years from his peak.
Campbell is a clear upgrade at 2B. The Red Sox were 40-45 runs below average at second base last year. If Campbell were to play every game, they would likely be a top-five club at the position. That is possibly a five-win jump. I’m quite high on Campbell, which is why I don’t see Bregman at 2B as being a meaningful upgrade.
At the same time, Duran, Abreu, and Wong had career-best seasons and are decent bets to regress a little. (Duran and Abreu should still be good players, though Wong could regress into being a complete disaster.)
Much the same applies to the pitching. Crochet is a clear upgrade, but Houck and Crawford fared a bit better — especially in the first half — than expected.
Pretty rare for everybody on a team to be at the top of their game at the same time. If that were to happen, the Red Sox could be a championship team. I’m just not going to predict that.
I do believe that Bregman’s bat and glove, moving Devers to DH, would be a substantial upgrade if not enough to catch the Yankees or Orioles. They were MUCH better than the Red Sox in 2024.
Don’t dismiss TBR and TOR. They aren’t going to win the division, but they are within reach of passing the Red Sox. They aren’t patsies.
Agreed that the West looks strong. Less confident about the Central. The Yankees and Orioles might be the two best teams in the AL (though the Rangers and Astros will make for some fun competition). Two division winners and your top two Wild Card teams from those four.
Probably the Twins in the Central, a pretty solid team. Not sure the Royals have enough to stick with them this year, unless Witt goes nuts again. Think the Guardians will slide.
All others — including the Royals, Mariners, Red Sox, and Blue Jays — all hoping for that final Wild Card. No great teams in that bunch, so it could be taken with as few as 87 wins.
Cora doesn’t control who plays where in the minors…
You can’t learn a position properly in 44 innings (or even 44 games). He has played 300 innings at shortstop in the minors (with a decent enough .971 fielding percentage), but even that is barely a start. Rafaela had more than twice that much experience at shortstop and STILL was a defensive disaster for the first month as he learned the position in the majors.
I love Campbell’s athleticism, and while I personally doubt he would stick defensively at SS, he seems to have the necessary tools to play 3B. If he can get half a season of practice at 3B in the minors, then I bet he would do very well there. Unfortunately that would keep his bat out of the majors until July.
Not sure what the answer is. His bat is ML-ready now. His defense at 2B ought to be good enough to continue learning at the major league level. Just think that 3B would take him a bit to master — and while he could learn in the majors it would likely be ugly for a month or two while he was doing so. (Easier if he works out there in Spring Training perhaps?)
tff – Great post, thank you!
I’ve already admitted I’m probably overly optimistic on Roman. Not only because he tore up AAA, but also because of the way he conducts himself (hopefully he doesn’t do what Teel does pregame Haha!). Thinking back, I haven’t been this excited about a prospect since the Gold Dust Twins (you may have to look them up LOL).
Agree with you on the possibility of the three regressions, I think the most would probably be Duran (coming off an incredible season) and Wong (he had a really rough second half). I would be pleasantly surprised if Abreu is still around. It’s interesting how catchers tend to have a really good year or two on offense, and then crash and never recover.
Yeah I totally agree no team is on top of their game all at once, but I do buy into the belief that hitting can be contagious.
I’ve said it before and I’ll say it again, if everything goes just right they can win it all. People say “Oh they’ll never beat the Yankees, Dodgers or Mets in the postseason” ….. well, anything can happen especially when injuries are factored in. For instance if Cole, Fried and Judge all miss significant time the Yankees are certainly beatable. I’ve already thrown some money down on the Sox in the WS, I do like longshots ;O)
If the Sox had stayed healthy and management had actually tried to improve at the deadline, Sox could have caught the O’s and Yanks. But we all know if’s don’t count in the standings.
The Yankees aren’t done. This is already an extremely good rotation, and a fairly good bullpen.
The Yankees, depending on their last two pickups simply have to find parity to last year’s final stats to break even as one of the better offenses. I laid that out in another post how easy it is based on their pickups already to match last year’s stats.
If they are healthy, they are the team to beat in the east. If not, they may still win the east, but I think they are a playoff team (and I still don’t know who the new outfielder and infielder will be). I just know they will aggressively fill their needs. Like a team that wants to make the playoffs every year.
I posted a couple months ago that I think Breslow is married to the idea of hoping Grissom wins the second base job and saving money there. I think he views him as the everyday second baseman until he plays himself out of the job and off the team. I also, to a lesser degree, felt that management was blowing smoke on the right-handed power bat in the outfield unless the Abreu trade could bring back a solid reliever due to the Rafaela investment. That is playing out as predicted.
In the scenario that Grissom fails you will see the infield prospects pressed into service. They would have nearly no excuse anymore to bring in a sub-par journeyman instead of allowing the prospects to win a job as the solution.
Agreed, I think Grissom sees himself as the 2B. Not entirely clear how the team views him, but they seem ready to give him another chance. While Campbell could play anywhere, he is closest to ML ready at 2B.
Thus I don’t see any need for Bregman there.
I failed to mention this, but as a matter of face, the Red Sox watched the ace they traded win a Cy Young while the return struggled to be healthy and produce. The only people alive that want Grissom to succeed more than Grissom is the people the traded our CY Young winning ace for him.
That was the main reason I felt there was zero chance we would upgrade at second base, even above the money issue. This trade looks terrible unless he wins the job and produces. The sole reason for picking him as the return.
William: The Red Sox got $10M in salary relief from Atlanta in the Sale trade. I think salary relief was the main motivation for the trade. They would have received a better prospect in return of there was no salary relief. I think the Red Sox also got relief from Sale’s option year too.
I disagree entirely. The 10 million in salary relief made no difference as they stayed below cap and used the money towards signing a pitcher they knew would not pitch and a couple of minor league signings.
Grissom was more important than $10 million. That was the return.
I doubt the Red Sox had their sights on Grissom. I think he was a by-product of unloading Sale. I don’t think they woke up one day and thought they needed to go get Vaughn Grissom. I do think they decided they needed to unload as much of Sale’s contract as possible which makes the $10M and option relief the main focus of the trade.
All – Wait I’m confused. Salary relief in the Sale deal?
The Red Sox paid $17Million in salary relief. ATL was asked to take him off the Red Sox hands because he was so bad.
What salary relief are you suggesting?
Agreed. I don’t think Bregman fits unless they trade Yoshida or Casas which would allow Devers to move DH or 1B. Hopefully, Devers can move to DH. That may be better for his shoulders.
I’m reading the Red Sox would use Bregman at 2B. If true, no need to trade Yoshida or Casas. I’m also reading that Bregman’s market is down to the Red Sox (Cora) and Tigers (Hinch).
I’d pass on Bergman regardless the positions he’s willing to play
I don’t really want Bregman either.
It sounds like Arenado is still in play for the Red Sox. If they could trade for Arenado with Yoshida going to the Cardinals, that could move Devers to DH. In addition to getting Devers off the field and getting rid of Yoshida, they would avoid a long contract with Bregman as Arenado only has 3 years left on his contract. The Phillies may also be after Arenado.
I mean if they’re able to get out from under Yoshida’s contract I guess I’m for it. Not for nothing though they still have a problem with too many LH outfielders even if the Sox trade yoshida.
They have solid solutions at 2B, what would most improve the team is a better defensive 3B.
tff – Every team goes forward with weaknesses, not even the Mets or Dodgers or Yankees have solid 5-tool players at every position. Without the front office revealing the big picture, it’s just not worth obsessing over any one position.
I mean do you really believe a healthy Devers at 3B is a bigger concern than their current catching situation? Sorry but catcher is definitely a more important position than 3B. A strong shortstop such as Story can help cover for Devers’ bad defense, but nobody can help the catcher. I know you’re very high on Wong, he’s young and you want to salvage something from the Mookie trade …. but let’s face it, his second half performance last year was atrocious on both sides of the plate.
Fact is they won with Devers in 2018 and he carried the team into the postseason in 2021, he’s not the biggest issue right now. Even if he was, there’s ways to compensate for his shortcomings. ,
Fever, I don’t know what you are talking about. Wong is easily the worst #1 catcher in the league, worse than most #2 catchers. His defense is indefensible.
I was advocating for Carson Kelly, a solid defensive catcher who is eminently affordable, but the team didn’t agree. Narvaez seems decent enough, though he won’t hit much.
Spending $200M on Bregman to play second base makes zero sense to me, though. Why do you support that idea?
tff – I am very happy to hear your current thoughts on Wong and Bregman, I totally agree!!!
Between Story, Grissom, Cambpell and Mayer it simply doesn’t make sense to give $200M to Bregman.
What do you think about trying to pry Raleigh away from Seattle? Or Moreno away from Arizona?
My worst fear is they acquire Vaz out of desperation.
I don’t believe that management feels that desperation. They are clearly higher on Wong than you or I.
I always liked the Arenado scenario if accompanied by losing Yoshida because of the monumental defensive upgrade and the ability to hold onto Casas. Even if he further declines offensively his production would still probably sit around .260 20+HR 80 RBI at Fenway for 81 games. Well worth it for three years of seeing an actual third baseman play. The bonus also is that his contract is structured that it goes down in value to about $16 and $15 million the last two years which helps a lot towards the cap.
My hang up is that it is 3 years. That means Campbell has to find his at bats at second, which is fine, but not optimal. If Mayers is being promoted this or next year it means Story goes to second base with Arenado at third. That is a great defensive infield but squeezes Campbell out unless someone is moved, or he changes potions.
The only way to sidestep the entire issue entirely with Campbell and Mayers both in mind and save the money is to trade Yoshida, move Story to third, open up second to competition for Campbell, short for Mayers, and Casas stays at first so we can burn Devers mitt once and for all. You save money doing nothing and make it about prospects competing for a job.
They invested in Rafaela and they have made it abundantly clear they are shopping for only one right-handed power bat. They see Rafaela, as I predicted, as that right-handed bat in the outfield unless they can move Abreu (for a reliever is my guess, or along with 1 starter for another starter). I think only then do they sign a right-handed power bat for the outfield. I am skeptical that they ever planned it.
If you follow the chatter, there is nearly nothing on the Yoshida or Abreu front that works to this point in either money, or return. That is why they are playing around with the “interested” in third baseman game for the right-handed bat.
As it stands Duran, Rafaela, Abreu is the outfield. Ref and Yoshida are the fill ins. Not great, but not terrible. Certainly, it is fine defensively.
Makes sense. I think it is all a pretty difficult set of circumstances to resolve. We are also discussing this on the Third Base News article.
I read his post as not liking either scenario but seeing Devers butcher third being less pressing then other glaring needs (catcher being one of them) along with the bullpen and lack of overall power and contact especially from the right side.
They will not get a premium catcher. Those teams understand the value of actually owning one, and you as a fan will not want to pay the price it will take in prospects to get one. Expect at least one more catcher brought in from the scrap heap by end of spring.
All – Is Acell10 one of your little buddies? I didn’t realize that since you are so different.
Back to the topic, Bregman’s value is in moving Devers to DH. If he goes to 2B the team is better off at 2B but they still don’t move up in the defensive rankings with Devers making 50 plus misplays at 3B every year.
Trading Devers for Arenado makes a lot of sense. Then you can save the Bregman money for more pitching.
TFF17 – Sorry that is the moniker that came up.
I’m not shocked at this discovery since your comments made so much sense. I thought wow I found another guy who makes sense!!! hahaha
Spot on about Wong. I’m not convinced he didn’t have a career year hitting. His peak prior to last year was an OPS+ of 80. A few years ago I had Narvaez in a fantasy league and I thought he hit better than I expected. He was streaky but I can live with streaky if he’s got good defense.
FYI… Abreu and Wong led the team in “heart of the order” at bats and not producing runs and RBIs considering their opportunities. Wong is also wearing a Scarlett A for his involvement in the Mookie giveaway!!!
William 2 – Duran to me is a stud. Rafaela is a future stud if they ever let him bat in the heart of the order so he stops chasing because Duran will create fastballs for him that are in the strike zone. Since Abreu takes pitches they should bat him 9th since he sure can’t drive in runs. Anthony will move him out of the line-up when he arrives. A platoon hitter is nearly as worthless as a 2nd or 3rd DH.
I think you’re selling Buehler short and disagree that it doesn’t raise the ceiling. He’s clearly better than Pivetta and if healthy (granted that’s an if) he is better than almost everyone except Crochet in the rotation.
Acel, I don’t expect him to get 100% back to where he was. Still an upgrade over Pivetta, but I’m unconvinced that he tops Houck.
thats fair. I just expect him to get close to 100%
TFF17 – The Dodgers gave up on Buehler, his numbers the last two seasons indicate he’s lost his pinpoint accuracy with pitches and he now give up more hits than inning pitched which he NEVER did when he was good.
Pivetta is a certainty, Buehler is a huge risk. Since the team isn’t likely to compete, I guess a big risk makes fans feel better, right up to the point where he fails or gets hurt again.
Crochet is also a huge risk. Never pitched in pressure situations. At least Bueher has the pedigree we need, just not reliable health or his old stuff.
It’s funny but Houck, Crawford and Bello are truly the most reliable options on the mound because they have a track record that is consistent. Everyone else that starts are maybes. A one time wonder, a recovering TJ surgery with years of not being good (Ditto for Sandoval) and now a highly accomplished star who got dumped by a program known for it’s pitching. Lots of question marks.
Sag – Awesome post, I totally agree!!
Crawford and Houck got stretched out a lot this year, by far the most innings they’ve ever pitched. They absolutely should have better numbers next year because of their innings this year.
And BTW a few more major concerns about Buehler you didn’t mention:
He has now had TWO TJS, it’s very rare pitchers fully recover from a second TJS especially at his age.
He has had a history of back and hip pain that led to a lot of time on the IL.
He started sucking IMMEDIATELY after they banned the sticky stuff. So even if he is 100% healthy all next season, he still has to prove he can pitch without the sticky stuff.
Very hopeful that Crawford and Houck come back strong as you suggest, Fever. Crawford’s velocity was falling off over the course of the season, which is concerning. Another manager might have given him a couple weeks break mid-season rather than pushing him into games to give up one home run after another.
Houck is a better bet to succeed in 2025, in my opinion.
tff – Crawford was tired in the second half, of course his velocity was down.
As much as I disagree with many things Cora does, pushing Crawford and Houck on the innings this year was a really good idea that should reap benefits in the future.
Remember Cora was asked why he played Crawford, Houck and Duran so much …. and he said because they didn’t plan to contend this year, so no need to “save” them for September or October games. Hey at least he was honest!
Fever Pitch Guy – All valid issues. My bad for not mentioning them. It’s fair to say he has many hurtles to jump to be the stud he was a half decade ago.
I think this is good deal for the Sox and I had a feeling Walker was getting something like this. He needs to prove full health and get to being the pitcher he was consistently. If he can, a bigger payday awaits.
Still, seeing him settle for less AVV than what a lesser pitcher (imo) Sean Manaea just got feels odd. Granted he had a better season, but does anyone think he’s really better than Bueller?
It’s not much less, with deferrals on Manaea contract it brings the AAV to $22,023,552. Walker is a bigger question mark going into the year but has a higher ceiling and lower floor.
Wrote this before the deferrals were announced. Closer now for sure.
And the Dodgers sacrifice a draft pick. Turns out Friedman doesn’t always get it right.
Buehler would have probably accepted then most likely and might of ruled out a Kershaw return. Honestly can’t be that upset would have only been basically a 5th round pick anyway.
It would have meant nothing for Kershaw. He’s coming back no matter what. They simply got it wrong on Buehler just as they did on Bellinger. It happens, believe it or not.
Bro you can only carry 13 pitchers, technically Dodgers can carry 14 with Ohtani. They already have:
– Ohtani
– Yamamoto
– Snell
– Glassnow
– Gonsolin
– May
– Kopech
– Treinen
– Graterol
– Phillips
– Buehler (if offered QO)
– Banda
– Vesia
Plus they are going after Roki so yes adding Buehler would have probably stalled Kershaw. Dodgers simply just didn’t need or want to pay him.
Bro, trades happen. So do injuries. The odds of all these pitchers making the opening day roster are practically zero.
But I know how it works around here. The worst thing you can do is be proven right.
I get that, I’m saying offering Buehler a QO seems like an unnecessary risk/gamble for a 5th round pick.
1. They have already have 24 pitchers on the 40 man roster not counting possibly 3 more with Walker, Kershaw, Roki.
2. He’d just be a very expensive # 6 or 7 starter or RP. At 21MM, they have cheaper options internally already.
3. The 5th round pick is only worth about 500k-525k, it’s not a substantial return for the risk.
This is what the team decided, obviously. It just doesn’t look like such a great decision given that Buehler signed for exactly the price that so many thought he would never get. In fact it seems to me his asking for and getting exactly the QO amount can be read as a message from the player.
There is no way to tell what He’d have signed for had the QO been attached. It’s almost guaranteed to be less than the $21M he got.
Which only proves my point that the draft pick has value. Look, I argued that Buehler was a good candidate for a QO and was told no way he’d sign for that much. I sure can see the error of my ways now.
Crochet is a great pitcher, Bello is highly overrated, Giolito is garbarge, Houck is solid and Buehler is full of question marks. Good luck with that rotation
Good luck getting a tee time with all those Yankee players hitting ahead of you.
Good move by the “idle empire.” They can catch lighting in a bottle, and if he sucks, we’ll it’s just money. They can move him into the bullpen, and who knows what might happen.
Apparently I’m in the minority but I think this is a great move. I’m all for it.
Dirty – Honestly based on the $21Million AAV restraint, he’s the youngest guy available with some upside potential for the price.
Very predictable. Sure wish he wasn’t cut by LAD. That’s a huge red flag.
Sag – Excellent post as always!!!
Yes the Dodgers not only didn’t offer him an extension, they didn’t even extend him a QO because they KNEW other teams wouldn’t give him a better deal and they didn’t want to get stuck with him on the exact same QO contract he got from the Red Sox.
Nobody knows Buehler better than the Dodgers, to think otherwise is absurd.
1 year for $21M. Cease is available for 1 year at $14M. Preller must be asking for a lot in a trade.
Buehler only cost money. Cease is going to cost prospects. Any of those prospects hit and you’re going to lose way more than $7 million worth of production.
Dirty – Between the Crochet, Sims, Jansen and Garcia trades the Red Sox lost 12 prospects with none coming back.
They don’t have quite the surplus of prospects they used to have a few months ago.
Fever Pitch Guy – The had 5 high quality prospects and traded 3 of them away. A fair rating system would move them down twenty spots after the Crochet deal.
Sag – OUTSTANDING post as always!!! I am very curious to see how the farm system is rated at the start of next season (not that I put a ton of stock in ratings).
Just think of what the Crochet package could have brought, heck it could have brought Skubal or Skenes if they had been available.
The best move the Yanks have made this offseason is acquiring Williams, that guy is freakin’ awesome …. and the Red Sox could have EASILY beaten what the Yanks gave up for him.
If 2025 is gonna be another “Closer by Committee” situation, then the bullpen could be a big problem again.
Fever Pitch Guy – I’ll stake my reputation on Hendriks.
He’s a stud and should be coming out of the shute!
Two great support guys needed to me are Scott and Estevez. Both reasonably priced and under their $21Million limit. That would make the pen as strong or stronger than the rotation.
Dirty = Great point. I wish you would have added like we are gong to lose on the Crochet deal.
Two years for 3 stud farm players while you have dozens of pretenders in the minors with big names that could have been sent instead like when we sent Moncada to get Sale.
Sag – PHENOMENAL post as always!!!
I have also looked at the Sale trade as proof the Crochet trade was a massive overpay. It’s almost as if the Red Sox felt remorse for THE GREAT DAVE DOMBROWSKI robbing the ChiSox on the Sale trade!!!
Let’s look back and provide a detailed comparison of the two trades ….
Dombrowski gave up only ONE PLAYER (Moncada) in the Top 66 for Sale and none of the 4 prospects they traded were from a position of weakness.
The Red Sox gave up TWO players in the Top 54, including one that likely would have provided them a much-needed top catcher for more than a decade, and they also gave up a rising prospect in Meidroth.
Dombrowski got in return a proven HOF-caliber starting pitcher under THREE years of team control,
.The Red Sox this month got in return an injury-prone unproven starting pitcher who has hardly pitched, logging only 219 innings in his career going back to 2020 and never more than 146 innings in a season.
It’s NO CONTEST!!! The Sale trade was MUCH, MUCH, MUCH better than the Crochet trade!!!
Moncada was the consensus #2 prospect in all of baseball at the time of the trade, the equivalent of trading Anthony today.
You would have traded Anthony to hang on to Teel, Montgomery, and Meidroth? I’m calling you out on that one!!!
The Red Sox need to extend Crochet this winter. They will then control him for 6-8 years rather than just two or three.
Sale was pretty injury prone with the Red Sox, could never make it to the end of the season… Will be disappointing if Crochet doesn’t end up healthier than that.
tff – Moncada wasn’t consensus #2, many ranked him as Numero Uno ;O)
Haha …. not a chance I’d trade Roman for anyone! Moncada didn’t have the track record Roman has, he never even played in AAA until after he was traded.
I strongly suggest waiting until next offseason before considering an extension for Crochet. Better to pay a little more after he proves he can perform well and stay healthy.
That uncertainty cuts both ways, and is more critical to Crochet than to the Red Sox. Extend him now, while the uncertainty is high, and you can get very favorable terms – maybe a couple club options at the end. Wait a year and he’ll want a FA deal (and may be willing to wait an additional year to get one).
Since there is no way that the Red Sox are going to give a $200M+ deal to a pitcher, “wait a year” means “keep him for two years and let him walk”. And at that point you’ve badly overpaid for the trade.
tff – You changed your handle! I like the new one, but why did you change it? For anonymity? Would have made more sense when Saga was TF, it got confusing there for a while between TF and TFF. Haha!
To answer your question, I disagree. It’s entirely possible the Red Sox give $200M+ to a pitcher, but only if they are in their 20’s as Crochet would obviously be.
Therefore I stand by my position that the Red Sox should most definitely wait a year before discussing an extension.
Nah, got tired of the boring handle. People who know who I am still know who I am….
Sign Crochet now and they might get him as low as $160M. He knows he is an injury risk, and doesn’t want to take the chance of staying healthy for just a 25% larger deal.
It is a risk for the Red Sox as well, but they can afford that risk.
Wait – Think of it this way.
Crochet is risking $160M by waiting a year, or risking only $40M by not waiting.
The Red Sox are risking $160M by signing him now, or only risking $40M by waiting a year.
Seems pretty clear from a team perspective it’s worth the wait, just like it was by not signing Casas last offseason.
Not clear what the offer was to Casas, but my understanding is that they weren’t within a factor of two. Different expectations for his future production – Casas is extremely self-confident while the Red Sox are a bit more measured in their expectations. Some differences in the situation:
* Casas had just one year of service time with five years of team control remaining. Crochet has four years of service time with just two years of team control remaining.
* Casas managed just a +1.7 WAR in 2023. Both sides were negotiating based on their expectations of what he might do in the future, not on proven performance. Crochet is seen as one of the five best arms in the majors, at least on a rate basis.
* The Red Sox just spent four decent prospects to acquire Crochet. If he is only around for two years, even if he plays well, then that becomes an overpay. The only way this deal works is if they sign him long term.
While the dollar amounts may seem symmetric, the impact of a disappointment for the two parties is not symmetric. That is why Crochet is by all indications willing to sign BELOW his expectation this winter.
Crochet has thus far earned something like $8M in his career. Add in his arbitration salary and he’ll still be under $15M. If he blows out his arm again in 2025, there is a chance he’ll never make it back – and his lifetime earnings could top out at $20M. That’s a lot of money, but a $160M deal would guarantee him an order of magnitude more money.
Let’s say you averaged a $125k (present value) salary over a 40 year career for $5M lifetime earnings. You get offered a chance to increase that by 25% if you accept a 1-in-10 chance of having 80% taken away. Run the expected value on that — it is STRONGLY in your favor. But it would be “betting the house” on that 90% chance of winning the bet.
Similarly, Crochet might be weighing a 90% chance of $200M and 10% chance of $20M against a guaranteed $160M. The expected earnings are greater if he takes the gamble, which is why it makes sense for the Red Sox to offer the guarantee, but most people would be willing to sacrifice that last 10% of expectation for a guarantee. More complicated than that, of course, but you get the gist?
Young hitters can lose a few years to injury and still recover, e.g. Bellinger from 2020 through 2022. His earnings power will never match what he could have gotten in a long term deal after his tremendous 2019, but he’s still walking away with $150M+ lifetime earnings. In contrast, if Crochet gets floored by injuries over the next two years, he’s going to struggle to ever get that nine-figure deal.
Besides, I know it is cheating, but Crochet has already publicly broached his desire for a long-term contract. He’s not out to maximize his lifetime earnings, and the Red Sox should take advantage of that.
Wait – You’re doing a great job of explaining why you go for the extension now if you’re Crochet (which I already agreed with), but I don’t think you realize in doing so you are also supporting why the Sox should NOT give him an extension now.
It cannot be a win-win for both parties in terms of risk. If an extension is done within the next 3 months, it’s a big win for Crochet. If not, it’s a big win for the Sox. This is very reminiscent of 6 years ago when fans were clamoring to give Sale a huge extension, how did that work out?
Crochet hasn’t proven he can throw at least 180 innings and stay healthy. In fact HE HIMSELF was so concerned about his health this year that he demanded an extension before any team were to acquire him at the trade deadline.
I don’t understand why you are so anxious for the Sox to take such a huge risk right now, unless you’re related to Crochet or something? Haha!
You are right, I forgot to get to that part.
The risk for the Red Sox isn’t dying penniless, it is getting stuck with a non-performing asset as they did with Story and Yoshida and Giolito and Sale for all but the last year of his contract. So it isn’t a symmetric risk. In the worst case scenario they are mediocre for a few years.
In some sense the bigger risk to the Red Sox isn’t if Crochet underperforms but if he has a great season, waits until free agency, and then leaves for the Bronx. It is HARD to find star-quality talent at any price, so it is important to lock up what you have at the earliest opportunity.
If you don’t feel Crochet is an ace, then I can understand a “wait and see” attitude. But if he isn’t an ace, then why did they give up such a fat package to acquire him?!? Either he IS a top pitcher and they need to lock him up through his prime, or he ISN’T a top pitcher and they overpaid. Badly.
They waited to sign Mookie as well. How did that one work out for the team?
Wait – I feel he has the *potential* to be an ace.
They acquired him because of his *potential* as he has no “ace” track record.
Why does his health and lack of a track record not concern you? He’s had like 10 good starts total in his entire career! Sounds like FOMO going on here.
You think Mookie would have extended after the 2018 season? No chance for what they offered him a year later, and rightfully so.
I think that they missed the boat on Mookie when they dragged him through arbitration with lowball offers.
All pitchers are huge injury risks, I don’t see Crochet as being especially riskier than Flaherty or Snell or Fried.
Sometimes you have to take risks or accept mediocrity.
TFF17 – Definitely #1 in the land and highly over rated as can be seen by Dombrowski’s actions. This kid came from Cuba and played 2015 at A ball. Very modest numbers. In 2016 when Dombrowski showed up and he started him at Hi-A and quickly moved him to AA which shot up his rating then he pulled him up to the Red Sox for 8 games in September so he could cement the #1 spot knowing full well he wasn’t that good but he was perfect trade bait. Boston needed another lefty and Sale was his target and he sucker punched the CWS GM much like Friedman did to Bloom. Sale came over with multiple years at home team friendly prices.
This time the CWS did the same sucker punch. A guy with a high K rate always turns heads so the GM took aim at the heart of the Red Sox farm system. He landed the 1st, 4th and 5th best prospects and avoided the pretenders. Brilliant move on their part. Now, with the farm system gutted except for Campbell and Anthony, Boston needs to get both players into the majors in 2025 because it’s a growth year for Boston. If the new pitchers flourish, the team jumps from 81 to 90 wins and both Campbell and Anthony mature sooner as MLB players to go along with Duran, Casas, Rafaela and possibly Grissom. Six out of 8 hitters would be young controllable ball players while the pitching staff is trying to retain Buehler and Crochet long term. They young hitters might convince the ownership to invest in the two stud pitchers if in fact they are two stud pitchers so the club might go back to winning divisions and rings again.
Cease has more value than Buehler.
Cease.
Love this move. I don’t even like Buehler, but in today’s market, I thought he’d be looking at $60M/3+. It’s a guessing game, but I am guessing that he will look more like the 2024 playoff Buehler than the regular season. TJS takes some throwing to get over.
And this looks 100% like Buehler is betting on himself, and I like that. There is a solid chance at a QO next year.
I agree. His regular season had some warts but he was coming back from a lengthy injury, that always involves having to shake off some rust to get your sea legs back under you. He was great in the playoffs and one thing that caught my attention was he was talking after his world series start and he had mentioned how focused he’d been on staying within himself and learning to maximize his effectiveness with the pitches he had in his repertoire and not just going out there trying to pump 100 every single pitch. So one, I really like his mindset. Two, I think some of the younger guys on the staff like Bello in particular could really learn a lot spending time around a guy taking an approach like that, and three it’s a short term bet on a guy who is in turn betting on himself. If we are wrong, it is better to be wrong small like this than to be wrong big on a guy with a 7 year deal. But if we are right, we will have a guy who will be pitching on par with one of those guys who get 7 year deals.
Dirty – here’s what i still don’t get: lets say he has a very good season, mentors the young players and instills some tenacity to a team that could use some. Next year he walks. If we don’t make the playoffs this year does that move the needle for you?
How do you build a team, a deense, a culture when the good players leave every year (assuming they’re good)?
Not complaining, happy he’s here, but I can’t answer these questions on these one years
No, if he proves he is healthy again and pitches very well and is a good culture fit, I will fully expect them to stay involved with his market next winter and reward him with an extension. The only way I can foresee being content to let him go if he meets or exceeds high expectations would be if someone else gives him a genuinely insane contract while at the same time someone like Crawford or Bello or Fitts takes such a tremendous step forward in their development that we can actually say “we’re good”. To be clear I don’t expect that to actually happen, but to think through it I think those would have to be the conditions.
Dirty – i hear you, but i’m not sure it works. Hoping upon hope that everything breaks your way.
The Yankees signed Fried, they know now they need above average third base play to help out his ground ball induced contact. That makes sense.
How do you start from scratch each and every year?
You certainly can’t every year. But sometimes a one year marriage is a perfect fit for both sides. The Red Sox needed great starting pitching enough they were certainly in no position to dictate that they’d only shop in one corner of the market. Buehler needs to prove he is fully healthy, and if he does then we can talk long term deal and not have to worry about that spot for several years.
Dirty – WOW…. so after SIX years of nothing over $21Million AAV the rules will suddenly change? We just spent $100 Million on three guys working their way back to big payrolls on our dollar.
I still say sign a blue chip pitcher for 3 or 4 years for that same $100Million and we are far better off.
The blue chip pitchers are going for $200M+. The Red Sox are going cheap.
At the end of the day it’s a move and he isn’t cheap but man….. Burnes is out there and they have plenty of CBT wiggle room but they are unwilling to commit to the big contract. Hopefully Burnes is just holding out for money on the west coast.
I wanted Burnes too, but (and this is still a sizable “but”) if their approach is to spend at a similar overall level to what they would’ve given two or three ultra high end guys, but spread it around more, I think it could result in a better team.
I.E. as you mention there is still plenty of room in the budget…could be a sign that Bregman and/or Teoscar Hernandez are still to come…Plus they will need to clear an outfield spot for Roman Anthony once he’s ready, so don’t be surprised to see Wilyer Abreu used to help go get even more pitching, or perhaps to fetch a different catching prospect to replace Teel since the organizational depth is quite thin there now.
Now that they have gone and gotten two legit high quality arms, I feel comfortable in declaring it’s safe to say we are not done yet.
Dirty – I bookmarked ;O)
Joe – Signing Burnes is clearly a ridiculous comparison.
Burnes won’t get 8+ years.
We rehabbed Buehler with $21Million of our payroll so he can sign with the Yankees or Mets in a year after he’s proven he can be an ace again. If he’s a bust, we wasted the money too.
Every year of Burnes’ contract will provide quality pitching you can’t guarantee with Buehler, Giolito, Sandoval or even Crochet. Crochet has the best chance to not be a bust but Burnes is a blue chipper not a wannabe blue chipper like Crochet.
Always take the blue chipper over the wannabe. That’s an axiom for life not just baseball.
I hope these are not famous last words, but if they were just planning to jerk us around again like last winter – trading an MLB-ready catcher and shelling out $21 million cash to get two real pitching upgrades has not ever been their MO in years they’re punting. They’ve actually made some effort and paid the cost to upgrade the most glaring weakness holding the team back, so why come this far to stop here? There’s plenty of room to keep spending, and plenty of guys who could still be had that would address our remaining glaring issues. I’m cautiously optimistic more moves are coming, and by keeping my mood upbeat hoping to speak some of this into existence
Dirty – So you don’t think they were punting a year ago when they shelled out $39M for a pitcher who had a 5-ERA the prior two seasons, and $10M for an old injured reliever that wasn’t expected to pitch much, if at all last season? Remember some people here thought Gio was a major upgrade to Sale! Haha!!
I’m neutral as to whether or not they are punting next season, the Crochet trade was a panic move after they missed out on their Top 3 free agent targets. They knew they had to do something, trading a boatload of prospect talent was the best way to keep the payroll down which is always this team’s top priority.
As I’ve been saying, I’ll have a more definitive stance once the offseason is over. I think more trades are coming, and possibly another free agent signing.
Sag – SPECTACULAR post as always!!!
It’s so very true, always take the player with the great track record and the history of good health and endurance!
If John Henry had $1M to invest somewhere, would he choose to invest it all in biotech penny stocks? HELL NO! He would invest it in proven stocks such as Apple, Tesla, Amazon, etc.
So why is he doing the EXACT OPPOSITE with players????
Burnes is likely looking for Fried money. I’d rather pay Buehler $21M than $200M/8+ for Burnes.
Buehler has been my favorite Dodgers pitcher since his debut. Really sad to see him change uniforms. I don’t know if there was a better way to end his Dodgers career though. I really hope he can stay healthy, the guy is an absolute bulldog, and when he’s on, he’s fun to watch. No moment is too big for that guy.
Agree with everything you said. If the Red Sox make the playoffs, he will help them in the big games. If they are out of playoff contention, maybe the Dodgers bring him back at the TD in time for the playoffs.
Shrutefarm – Yeah i think you are right. Boston has become like a farm system for the Dodgers kinda like the As are a farm system for the Yankees over the years. That makes perfect sense since we GAVE them Mookie.
If they are not strong contenders at the trade deadline they will flip him for a young arm with years of control…..I think pitchers are way to vulnerable to be signed for long term contacts they are dropping like flies heading to the knife and lost for two years of the contact.. Better off getting one that just had the surgery and hopping he pans out.
AK – i think you’re right, and if i were a fan of, say, the Diamondbacks, i’d be happy about that. But, cant justify a team this far below the tax, with this many resources, with this pedigree buying player with the hope of maybe flipping them.
Sad Sox 3 – There are bigger issues than the ones you mentioned with this type of thinking.
The Red Sox are going into the season thinking:
1 – Lets not win so we can get a prospect for Buehler
2 – The Red Sox want to use Buehler to make the playoffs but have no chance to resign him if he does well
3 – The Red Sox invested their max money per player on Buehler who hasn’t been right since 2021.
Is this the thinking of a winning organization?
$100Million wasted on Giolito, Sandoval and Bueher with nothing to show for it in 2027 except possibly a trade deadline prospect for Buehler IF he recovers any of his former greatness.
WOW – How screwed up is this organization’s thinking?
I may be wrong, but I think this is a good pick up.
Hopefully he goes 20-5 era 2.75
Because Buehler and Sandoval are far better than Fried. Gotcha.
Sox gotta do something to stay in the chase It is a good move.
Buehler is better than Fried when you remove the injury years. And Fried will have those injury years during his next 8 years, probably soon. So this is a huge dominating win for the Red Sox. There’s still work to be done but they are crushing it this offseason. Time to clear the streets of Boston, we’re having another parade.
Part of the reason the Dodgers crashed out in the 1st round in 2022 and 2023 was due to Buehler and Treinen not being healthy and avaiable to pitch. Buehler is nails and if the Red Sox have a big game next year, he will at least keep you in the game, and likely pitch them a gem.
fred-3 – OR Boston won’t do well in the post season or even make it because Giolito and Buehler are not healthy.
That seems most likely. The what-ifs of the fantasy world are great but reality is bitter in Boston.
Sag – STUPENDOUS post, I totally agree!!
It’s fine to be overly optimistic like me, but some people here just are not into reality. Hahaha!!
This means Burnes is down to Jays Giants and O’s
Ray – They are just making uneducated guesses, like when they insisted the Giants were out of the Burnes sweepstakes.
I hafta admit, it would be shocking if Baltimore doesn’t make a big splash with SOME free agent this offseason.
That’s too high for him
braves will give morton 20mm but wouldnt sign buehler for 21 smh… disappointing off season for sure
At least it’s only for 1 year. Watching him these past few years, he is so erratic. He’s still trying to figure it out. LL RS improved their rotation, and assuming Crochet puts up similar numbers the rest of the staff collectively not elite.
May 2024 is “nearly 2 full years” after June 2023?
He had his 2nd Tommy John surgery in August of 2022.
This signing makes sense Buehler probably has a good year unless injured he’s pitching for his next chance at a big contract.
This signing should give the Red Sox a chance to open their competitive window a year or so early. It will also the pitching a chance to continue to develop in the minors. This signing also makes the Crochet trade make a little more sense they needed more pitching now they could have a staff that is very competitive but with a lot of variance. It’s time to now go get Tanner Scott for the back of the bullpen and let’s see what happens. This team will have a lot of variance with its outcome this based on how effective the starting staff is starting with Crochet and Buehler. Should be at least fun and with nearly 30 million to play with can’t rule out a couple more additions especially if they go over the lux tax line at 241 million. If they do they should easily be able to dip back down below it 2026.
@Bruin1012 If Buehler is “probably” going to have a good year he would have gotten much more than 1/21m, given what a good Buehler year tends to look like.
Jack I just think he’s got incentive to put up a good year then go get his contract. I’m not saying it’s a guarantee but I’m guessing you see a very focused Walker Buehler this season.
Fair enough. He surely has at least 100 million incentives to put up a strong year.
If you believe that Buehler needs any kind of incentive to compete, then you don’t know Walker Buehler.
Bruin – Are you saying Buehler dogged it this year? That’s not something I have heard before.
No matter how “focused” he is, if he continues to have hip/back/arm issues then being focused won’t help much.
I sure hope that Bloom is not done adding. After 2 TJ surgeries Buehler has a better shot at hitting an inside straight than even being an above average starting pitcher. As a #6 starter Buehler is a good fit. Other than that he is cross your fingers and hope for the best.
Buehler has a better shot at hitting an inside straight
=========================
Is that something you’d like wager on? I’ll bet that Buehler has a better than average SP ERA. for an honor wager.
I will take that bet. Should be fun to see how it works out.
3 SP out of the 56 that have had two UCL surgeries have returned and posted an ERA under 4.00 and more than 20 starts in any season. One had 3 such seasons.
I have no clue what the odds are of drawing to an inside straight, but Beuhler’s odds are 5.4%.
Last season 3.98 ERA was average for a starting pitcher with 100 or more innings pitched. (20 starts of 5+ innings)
Didn’t reply with the right account!
I will take the bet. Whether best does is up to him. Looks like they really did peg that Ragnarok is Ryan’s new account.
Negative. The two of you have signature tells w/ the multiple account usage. Birds of a feather don’t flock together there though!
Okay, do you want to make it simple? If Buehler’s ERA+ is below 100, you win. If it above 100, I win. The prize is a honor wager that, upon the winner’s request, the loser has to spend a week posting Joe or Web knows more about BB than they do.
IRT the 2nd TJS, I figure two things. The first is that they are better at it now. And the 2nd is that he was pitching better at the end of the year than in the beginning.
Was I right or was I right Web? Ryan’s newest account, Ragnarok. He doesn’t even try to deny it when he gets busted for multiple accounts. Just tries to spin it. Him and Joel/Blackpink/BITA are two peas in a pod with their new accounts every couple of months.
Best – Your posts are the best!!! I totally agree with you.
Nick Deeds. You need to correct the article. Buehler never pitched in 2023. He had TJ in August 2022.
Baseballisthebest – I heard Buehler struck out his mother in a back yard whiffle ball game in 2023? Not true?
Is there really a need for accuracy in articles like this one? Apparently not.
Good catch.
Base – That was actually his SECOND TJS.
21.05 million, for -1.3 WAR and 16 starts, and a missed 2023.
Interesting. That the Mets didn’t top this either means they’re done adding to the rotation, or they only believe that a TOR is worth the additional cost given their SP depth.
I hope it’s the latter. Cease and a solid DH would make this a scary team.
As expected, there is no consensus on this and its quite a speculative move. I like it in that Buehler was once a top 5 starter, so you know he had something at one stage and has a very high ceiling and if he can regain a bit of that then it’ll be a solid signing. OTOH, outside of the world series, he looked pretty poor in 2024 which may be more indicative of his actual level these days.
I’m thinking he’ll bounce back a bit and give us 120+ IP of 115 ERA+ performance and it’ll be a good signing. Not having the QO attached made it a pretty easy decision for whoever signed him in the end.
casual – Well said, it is indeed quite a speculative move.
Even if he remains healthy next year, which is something he hasn’t been for many years, why are you disregarding his performance drop immediately after the banning of the sticky stuff?
BTW – Snell didn’t have a QO attached to him either, just sayin’ …..
BREGMAN if any…screw the 2 OF options…Boston has a plethora of 4 and 5 tool stud Outfielders, if anything we need a 2b that can eventually transition to 3b once Raffy goes full DH. (NO Raffy isn’t ever playing 1b! Stop that nonsense)…so That’s none other than Bregman…if not him use Campbell, Mayer and Grisson for 2b and sign Burns or Scott or both! Preferably then lock down Roki Sasaki San! Join the Dynasty Boston Roki!
If Mark Vientos can be moved to 1B, ANYONE can be moved to 1B!!
Jack – Agreed! And the same could be said about Vladdy ;O)
Walker has a strong weight training program and has a lot of strength in the lower body. I actually wanted this signing. Pivetta was and always has been a workhorse. Now we probably get Pivetta like production if he’s still not right under Bailey, or we get a glimmer of him a couple years ago. One year guys always seem to want to get paid on a multi year deal. I expect good things from this, and we get the draft pick for Pivetta. Front end guy, no, but I think it’s a good signing. I mean this isn’t a $15mm Corey Kluber signing I think we saw as being completely ridiculous.
Off topic…I want to know whom in the organization was the catalyst who lead to NOT issuing a QO to Tyler O’Neil? I want to fire that dumb Mfer after a stiff swat on the back of his/her neck! Man for all the jobs in MLB I’d take 5 of you in this chat room before most of these imbeciles in the game. Fog a mirrors type people must be
Walker Buehler’s Day Off.
Blue – I bet he hates that movie, because he’s probably heard the references literally a million times throughout his life.
The Goldbergs did a reenactment of the jail scene and Charlie Sheen played the same character, it was great!
Tim Dierkes,
Please fix this article.
Nick Deeds wrote “That career trajectory was thrown off the rails early in the 2023 season, however. Buehler pitched to a relatively pedestrian 4.02 ERA (101 ERA+) in 12 starts for the Dodgers that year before going on the injured list in June and ultimately requiring Tommy John surgery.”
But Beuhler never pitched in 2023. He had Tommy John surgery in August of 2022.
Look at that.. little Red Sox get themselves a couple of legitimate pitchers with a trade and a signing while the Orioles sit on their lazy, fat, cheap, typical, and boring butts. Man they never do crap “new ownership is fantastic” (Fart)
Hello. Not sure what to say.
My husband Jack loved baseball. It was our first date as teenagers. As I was going through his phone I saw that he had visited this site almost every day so I am guessing he had friends here.
I am sad to say that Jack passed away on November 26th after a 1 year battle with pancreatic cancer.
He asked that if anyone was interested in remembering him, to plant a tree. One of his favorite quotes was “the true meaning of life is to plant trees under whose shade you do not expect to sit” by Nelson Henderson.
As he would say, do something this year you d—ned Mets.
I am so sorry. That is so sad. Please try to enjoy the holidays.
Life – So sorry for your loss.
Yes the real fans here are like a brotherhood. I remember some of his posts.
Thoughts and prayers to you and all his loved ones.
My condolences for both your husband and the Mets thing.
Your story reminds me of an early date with my wife. We were with a group of friends, and I overhear her best friend asking her if she was going to hanging out with me after the game. Her response was “hang out with Joe and his drunken friends?”. I’m pretty sure that’s when I first thought that she was perfect for me. And I haven’t changed my mind.
My condolences to you and your family. It is wonderful to know you were able to share Jack’s passion for this game. I’m sure that meant a great deal to him. Your notice also serves as reminder to all of us that real people lurk behind these screen names, and that we can all stand to be more compassionate and understanding.
BaseballisLife – My condolences. May he rest in peace.
He’s going to have a great view of the Mets games and my guess is he’s going to be pleased with their team in 2025. He may bring them the luck they need to win it all. So sorry for your loss.
Another” Rube Goldberg” on the cheap signing by Breslow of an injured pitcher coming off a major injury. So far that is 3 injured pitchers Breslow has signed. Are you kidding me? This is “Full Throttle” and “All In”? This team needed a major pitcher to be signed and a right handed hitter. So far none of that has happened! Now you know that they had no intention of signing Soto. It was all BS and they were going to lowball him knowing the Mets would up the offer beyond what they were going to do. All “Eye Wash” for the fans to see. I did not expect them to do much this off season and I was right so far.
AL34 – Not only is it 3 pitchers but it’s at a cost of $100Million for 2 pitchers getting 2 years with one of them hurt and 1 pitcher throwing just one year.
Best part, if all three do great none will be with Boston by 2027. They will cash in on their success with contracts above Breslow’s limit.
What a brilliant front office!!
Sag – One more similar signing on the way… John Means! HAHAHA!!
Lets hope they do amazing and taje this motley crew to ANOTHER title…right sag?
Overpay. Glass
Theo – And no more sticky stuff to hold the pieces of glass together! Hahaha!
Lets hope he stays together and wins a ton of games for the red sox!
Pool – That would be great …. but the deal getting killed because of his medicals would be even better ;o)
See you cant help yourself lol
Pool – What can I say, I’m an eternal optimist ;O)
We saw the Correa deal killed twice because of medicals, so there’s always hope we can avoid another Giolito!!
Working out a deal for Vaughn Grissom and Trevor Story.
Most teams re build or re tool, Boston appears to be in the re hab business
Daj – They are what’s known in the legal world as “ambulance chasers”! Hahaha!
Great move. Redsox are playing chess
Rick – You’re right, they are playing …. but it’s not chess, it’s slots!!! Haha!!!
Very solid rotation. The Sox may be playoff bound again.
Von – Solid as jello!! Hahaha!!!
Has the potential to be a terrific signing. And, from Red Sox payroll management it’s one year–not even two with an opt-out, so it’s very limited risk.
Hope is not a plan. Buehler would be a fine 6th/7th starter/reliever depth signing at far less $. The greatest predictor of future injury, is past injury. Hoping that Buehler regains his form or expecting him to be a reliable rotation piece is irrational and GM negligence.
Zeus – Supreme post, I totally agree!! Well said!!!
It’s a good move , if he exceeds expectations sox can give him a QO and get draft picks, if he disappoints no long term exposure
It appears to me Breslow is plating the hands his dealt. The evidence at this point is ownership isn’t going to make that big splashy long term commitment. Sure ownership feigned they had interest in Soto and it sounds like they made an uncomfortable offer but they had to know they weren’t getting Soto for anything shy of the highest bid and they Cohen was in it to win it. Ownership is the issue and Breslow is working around ownerships obvious problem with long term commitments especially for pitchers. It’s not up to Breslow to sign Burnes. That’s an ownership level decision. I’m sure Craig pitched signing Burnes to the owners and was probably refuted.
This is Breslow countering with what he is allowed to do. He traded a lot for Crochet and if that’s all he did then trading that much makes no sense. Obviously ownership has told him no on Burnes or they are convinced Burnes wants to play on the West Coast so he pivoted. He signed probably the best high end potential play besides Burnes. I’m glad they didn’t overpay for Flaherty was worried that might happen if they got desperate.
Breslow has done a good job so far working under the obvious constraints set by ownership. The Rotation has been reset with a lot of high end potential and based on what ownership is seeming to allow he has done a solid and decisive job rebuilding the rotation potential. He’s not done yet and I think he has ownerships blessing to at least go up to the lux line would love to see an impact reliever in the Scott or Hoffman maybe Estévez. Would also love to see him offload Masa and sign Teo. I’m not as keen on Bregman unless they are willing to move Devers to DH. I want no part of Devers moving to first.
Keep up the solid work Breslow and who knows maybe someday ownership will green light another long term big ticket item.
I like it. Low risk, very high reward. Could be a top of the rotation starter. If not, he’s only here for a year.
I can’t help but feel Breslow is playing a high risk/high reward game. Either the Sox will have a powerful rotation or this will be a painful season of regressions, injuries, and should have beens.
Regardless, a few things need to change as well.
1) According to fan graphs, the Sox were 15th in offensive WAR. If you look at it position by position you see the issue is the infield. Hopefully a full season of Casas changes that. But regardless it would be nice to get some more offense there.
2) Anyone who watched the Red Sox last season had to experience the same thing as me… a genuine cringe anytime the infield had to, well field the ball. There were a number of botched plays that made them look like 12 year olds just learning the game. Loved Hamiliton’s speed, but a complete liability in the field.
3) Chapman alone doesn’t fix the pen which was another major issue.
So yeah, there’s hope in the starting rotation… but I’m not seeing them trying to fix the bigger issues.
Sabe – If it is a painful season of regressions, injuries, and should have beens, the Red Sox won’t care because they already went on record as saying they won’t try to win until at least 2026 so that would be their built-in excuse.
It almost seems like the Red Sox are stacking trade chips for the trade deadline if their season doesn’t go well
It’s obvious Buehler’s numbers werent great last season. A cursory glance tells a pretty bleak story. As an avid Dodgers fan I can say that watching him was uncomfortable at first. His velo was down but worse, his command was non-existent But as the season drew on, he got better and better, looking a lot more like the Buehler I hoped for. Although the velo never got all the way back. he learned to command what he had and made it work. Couple that with his bulldog tenacity and what you signed is an absolute beast. Better play well behind him if you dont want your butts chewed because he plays to win. Period. Personally, I think it will be a mistake not having locked him up for 3 years. You’ll get one great one and he walks…
I’m still processing the buehler signing, so let me see. They offered a qualifying offer to Pivetta, who refused it. He had an era of about four, so instead, they signed buehler for pivetta money, who has an era of over five.
This is nothing but rearranging the depth chairs on the titanic.
Yea you also have to factor in Buehler was coming of missing almost two seasons when he came back. He struggled but got better at the end and then we all saw what he did in the post last season. He was really good against the Yankees. I think he’s going to be really motivated and he has show electric stuff in the past before injuries. Since it appears that ownership isn’t willing to sign the big market especially pitching free agents then Breslow has to do something like this. I agree it’s a risk he could flop but if that high end pitcher is still in there it could be a steal and very little risk just one year if things go bad.
Bruin – I would have preferred he got the hip replacement before signing with the Sox.
My prediction FPG he’s going to be just fine he’s pitching for his career and from all the Dodger fans he’s a competitor let’s see where this goes.
Bruin1012 – His competitive spirit and track record reminds me of Bieber. Bieber will be ok going forward after just one season that wasn’t elite. Buehler’s down seasons were short and bit more dramatically down but if anyone can comeback I think he has a great shot. My issue is that we rehabbed the guy and will lose him if ownership doesn’t fund an extension. For consistency sake, I would rather sign a SP1 to be here 4 or 5 years so the young pitchers can have a top end guy to learn from and build consistency. This is a revolving door top end of the rotation and that never seems to work. You have to have at least ONE stable top of the rotation guy.
Now, if Crochet backs up what he did last year and ownership is willing to pay big bucks to extend him, then this rotation should benefit greatly from the deal with Chicago. Even if Giolito does well and moves on and the same for Sandoval the Red Sox would still have one linchpin to create a cohesive starting staff. The miracle move would be to have both Crochet and Buehler play well in 2025 and sign extensions At that point, then Boston is back as a top 10 team and the .500 teams will be over. That’s a huge if and highly unlikely based on recent history. We would need an ownership PIVOT as large as the one that happened in 2019 when things went south by firing Dombrowski for the Bueher/Crochet scenario to have a chance at being a reality.
Walker Buehler is not going to have a 5 ERA next year. He has found himself. And he’s one of the greatest post season pitchers of all time.
Kershaw – He didn’t join a post season team so I’m not impressed with that aspect of him. We need him to show up and throw strikes and not let any grounders go to 3B. If he does that, he’ll be a great add.
So you don’t like to consider career numbers, or how he did later in the season as opposed to earlier in the season when he was getting over TJS?
Also the Sox get the compensation pick when Pivetta signs elsewhere… And if Buehler is not good, they let him walk. If he is good, they either sign him to an extension or make another qualifying offer which would net a second compensation pick. Beside the fact that I think Buehler is better than Pivetta (we can debate that).. You get Buehler and possibly 2 compensation picks for this signing rather than keeping Pivetta.
He might have the temperament of your average lefty.
I wonder if they fell in love with the World Series performance and think he is back. It’s a 1 year deal but if they think he is now their #2 this is a BAD idea. The ONLY good news is at least they go into the season with a better rotation. Houck, Bello, Paxton, Crochet and Buehler are at a minimum competent starters. I would hope they are in on Burnes or Sasaki or maybe pull a trade, but something tells me they are done with trying to upgrade the rotation.
Though O’Neill is a wild card they haven’t addressed a RH power bat.
Paxton?!? Don’t tell me he’s coming back! Did you mean Crawford, Giolito, or Sandoval? Not sure when Giolito will be ready, and Sandoval will probably miss most of the season.
All these pitchers are using the Roger Beshens Football Slider and their performance improved once they learned about it. The Red Sox are facing consequences because they are not good at teaching the Roger Beshens Football Slider. Roger Beshens is currently working with ML pitchers in Phoenix. Other ML teams should consider hiring him.
I like this signing for Boston. It’s a one year risk of 21 million. My unscientific take is a 40% chance you get $30 million in value. A 40% chance you get $15 to $18 million in value. A 20% chance he’s injured and you get little to no value. Those aren’t bad odds for MLB starting pitching.
Pivetta signs for 3 years $48MM lol
Buehler is going to deliver this year for the Sox. And I’m not talking about the mail.
Wade – Good, I look forward to receiving pizzas from him!
I agree. didnt read all the incentives but im hoping for a run at the al cy young…no that was not sarcasm ala fpg
Pool – I’m hoping Yoshida and Devers both win Gold Gloves.
If Palmeiro could win a Gold Glove while playing DH, why not Yoshida?
Fever Pitch Guy – Does that mean Devers found his glove after EIGHT years of looking for it? hahahaha
Ahhhhh – He painted his glove gold. I get it!!
Even with all the incentives and whatnot this is a very rich deal for a player with a lot of uncertainty around them. But hey- good for Buehler.
I saw some celebrating the fact that there is a mutual $25M option for 2026 included. Not to rain on anyone’s parade, but the last time both parties exercised a mutual option was MIL and Aramis Ramirez in 2015. Once in 10 years makes for really long odds.
Plus wouldn’t that reduce this year’s contract to $18m since he would not get the $3m buyout?
Bill – Exactly! Which means it’s really only a $22M option.
Solaris – So true! The only way it happens is if the team thinks the player is worth the option amount, and the player doesn’t think that. It’s the longest of long shots.
How many guys named Walker Buehler are they allowed to sign?
Brian – Enough to reach 1,000 comments.
Hate these re-releases of old information.
This just keeps getting better and better.
This is not news.
Wait, breaking news. The Bosox just issued the cap and jersey to Buehler. Breaking the Bosox just signed Buehler. ENOUGH ALREADY. MY GOD. Every day. STOP
boston – The sad thing about the jersey is that some people here actually believed he would get to keep #21 ….. absolutely ridiculous of them to believe that.
Zero is so appropriate a number for Buehler, as it represents his level of interest in signing an extension with the Red Sox if he has a good year.
How can anyone say FPG is not a troll after a post like this? He went out of his way to put down the Red Sox.
He’s a one-trick pony. He only signs on to post negative $chitt about the RS. There is nothing more boring in the world than someone that has only one thing to say.
All – I think you are taking his comments too personally. You and I recognize that we differ because I report performance and you are an eternal optimist. Sometimes performance isn’t positive and we have different viewpoints.
In this case, FPG is pointing out a harsh reality that exists with each of our three acquisitions of starting pitchers. Boston is going to rehab three guys who have been hurt for several years in hopes they can make a big comeback but the irony of the situation is that if they are successful, their new cost will be above the threshold that owners have allowed other than their Soto bid.
So Boston gets 3 seasons of potential star quality starting pitchers and then we get to watch them take bigger deals elsewhere. That’s the same thing I don’t like about these deals. Without having permission to extend them for more than $21Million a year if they do great, we simply rehabbed a SP for another team and got ONE year of benefit from a two year investment in the cases of Giolito and Sandoval and a one year investment in Buehler.
I’m a blue chip guy so I’d rather spend the money on a blue chip for 3 or 4 years so Houck, Crawford and Bello can be part of a consistent pitching staff that can grow as a team and get better. Instead, we have Buehler and Giolito for 2025 and then if they flourish they will go to another team and if they fail we wasted the money. Then in 2026 we’ll see Crochet and Sandoval pitch and if they do great they will move on to another team in 2027 for much bigger money. That seems totally unfair because it does nothing for building team chemistry through continuity. I agree with FPG that this is a bad strategy and will either provide rehab and big pay days to these pitchers or they will end up being busts as investments if they don’t successfully comeback from TJ surgery.
Does that make sense? I didn’t see it as a troll move just a harsh reality.
Vintage WB? Wow if he can even be close to that.