The Red Sox are known to be looking for starting pitching, with chief baseball officer Craig Breslow having said that he wants to “raise the ceiling” in the rotation. They have been connected to marquee free agents like Corbin Burnes and Max Fried as well as notable trade candidates like Garrett Crochet, Bryce Miller and Bryan Woo. Peter Abraham of The Boston Globe reports that Walker Buehler is another free agent they have interest in.
Whether Buehler would count as raising the ceiling would be a matter of debate at this point, as it’s been a few years since he was at his best over a meaningful stretch of time. From 2018 to 2021, he tossed 564 innings for the Dodgers, allowing 2.82 earned runs per nine. He combined a 27.7% strikeout rate with a 6.1% walk rate and 44.7% ground ball rate. He also posted good results in 15 postseason starts for the Dodgers in that time.
But in 2022, he had an ERA of 4.02 before requiring Tommy John surgery, the second of his career. He missed the entire 2023 campaign and didn’t immediately bounce back this year. He only made 16 starts in 2024 and had rough results, most prominently a 5.38 ERA. His 18.6% strikeout rate was below league average and also far from his previous form.
He did finish things on a positive note, in a very small sample but on a very big stage. After getting lit up by the Padres in the NLDS, he went on to throw ten shutout innings over his final three appearances of the Dodgers’ World Series run. That included four shutty against the Mets in the NLCS, a five-inning start against the Yankees in the third game of the World Series, followed by the final three outs in game five.
Going into 2025, Buehler is an interesting risk/reward play. His previous upside is tantalizing but he’s been hurt or middling for the past few years. He did have that strong finish in the playoffs but most modern front offices won’t be swayed by such a small sample, even it was under the brightest lights in baseball.
That uncertainty means that Buehler could likely be had for a relatively low price, which could either turn into a bargain or a waste. The Dodgers declined to issue Buehler a $21.05MM qualifying offer at season’s end, evidently not valuing him worth that price point. At the start of the winter, MLBTR predicted Buehler for a one-year deal with a $15MM, though the market for pitching has been stronger than expected, with mid-rotation or back-end guys like Luis Severino, Yusei Kikuchi, Frankie Montas, Matthew Boyd and Clay Holmes outearning their projections so far.
Despite the recent results, Buehler has proven to be quite popular this winter, having already drawn the interest of Atlanta, the A’s, Yankees, Mets, Cubs, Tigers and now Red Sox. For Boston, they tried a buy-low move last year which hasn’t worked out so far. After a few rough years, they gave Lucas Giolito a fairly modest $38.5MM guarantee on a two-year deal but elbow surgery wiped out his 2024 season.
The injury is not really the fault of the Boston front office but Giolito was a risky choice even before that and it was generally expected they would target more surefire rotation upgrades this time around. The club’s decision makers have talked about being aggressive this winter and putting together a club capable of winning the division, even if that means paying the competitive balance tax.
RosterResource pegs the club’s CBT number at $181MM right now, about $60MM shy of the $241MM base threshold. That means they have plenty of room to go after top free agents like Burnes and Fried, but they are also at least considering a more modest strike for someone like Buehler, or perhaps a combination of the two.
The rotation currently projects to include Tanner Houck, Kutter Crawford and Brayan Bello, with openings at the back. Giolito will be expected back at some point, though likely not at the start of the season. Guys like Richard Fitts, Cooper Criswell and Quinn Priester are on the roster but fairly unestablished and still optionable. Alongside Buehler, the Sox could consider other mid-rotation or back-end free agents such as Sean Manaea, Nathan Eovaldi, Jeff Hoffman, Nick Pivetta, Andrew Heaney, Jose Quintana, Max Scherzer, Justin Verlander and others.
Stop the presses! The Red Sox are “interested” again.
Fat – Now THIS guy seems a lot more likely for the Red Sox than Burnes or Fried.
Walker checks off everything they always look for:
1) Returning from injury
2) Recent numbers are awful
3) Will be relatively inexpensive
Fever—Spot on.
This is going to start looking like the late 90s/early 2000s Sox when they had the likes of Ramon Martinez, Mark Portugal and Steve Avery. Throwing something against the wall hoping it sticks.
Letitbe—You left out the human batting practice machine: Rolando Arrojo.
They’ve been doing that since 19. This year it’s supposed to be different. Time will tell
Dewey – was this the year of Full Ceiling, or, Raise the Throttle?
I forget
I’m afraid they are playing with their Throttle rather than actually getting out there and signing talent.
FPG – perfectly summed up!
…last good in 2021. He can reminsce with Giolito while they hang out together on the bench.
checkmate bud
Lol. Rumor has it that the Red Sox were interested in bringing back Breslow and Cora as players! Does that mean both will no longer be with the Red Sox? Fingers crossed
[MAJOR LEAGUE FRANCHISE] is considering [FREE AGENT]??!!
This is crazy! Tell everyone!!!!
As their pitching stands now, would he become their de facto ace?
Who knows? He could be #1 or #5. Be it as a starter or on the IL. Sox need a true #1 and then Eovaldi who has a better decent track record of remaining on the hill.
Unlikely. His last high-level performance was 2021.
Not necessarily. He used to be an ace (they will see him as the ace on this current staff, but he could easily never regain his dominant form, and the Red Sox could just be adding another 4, or 5 pitcher to a staff full of 4’s and 5’s.
No knock-on Houck. If he is top of the rotation, you have major problems. If you see him slotted in 3 at the highest or below, you know you have a strong rotation.
If they are interested, after signing Burnes or Fried, then it’s interesting. Currently Giolito is a wild card and they are banking on Houck sustaining last seasons success.
Master of teasing the fan base
They need a closer, 2 SP and some offense. In other words they won’t do anything
I’d like to see them get Jansen, crochet and one of fried, Eovaldi or Burnes. No chance
dopt – Jansen as in Kenley? Not a chance, that ship has sailed and the bridge burned.
At this point, I’d bring back Bill “soup” Campbell before re-signing Jansen. For those too young to remember, Soup was dominant and the team’s initial splurge when free agency started. His fastball jumped like few before him but he was never the same after blowing out his arm.
in the end, the ace will be Flaherty and a righthanded outfielder with a lifetime 230 BA. The 2025 version of the henry Shuffle.
I cant even………..
Giolito went to High School with Flaherty and Fried. Now you have more actual information than what’s in this article.
The Jays really should sign one of Fried or Burnes and one of Beuhler or Flaherty. And use Bassitt as trade bait.
It’s kinda embarrassing this organization doesn’t really have any trade chips to use
Giolito’ expected to be not ready for opening day was new information for me. That increases the need for 2 durable top pitchers. Let’s please not go after anyone with doubtful durability, injuries or health issues. These are usually big mistakes not bargains.
Sports – Giolito never had a health issue until he signed with the Red Sox. One of the readons they signed him was because of his durability. It goes to show, you never know….
*reasons
Sports – Where did you see that about Gio? No mention of it in the above article or the linked Globe article.
I’ve seen doubts that Giolito will be ready for Opening Day. My guess is June, but who knows?
The article about Fried mentions Giolito will be ready at some point in 2025 when he has recovered and it was mentioned somewhere else recently. I had forgotten it was not TJ surgery. I was assuming it was a while before he would be ready.
It’s concerning, although I had seen MLBTR mention that before. I don’t think it’s correct. Giolito was working toward pitching at least some innings at the end of this season before Sox fell out of contention, and said last month that he’s “full go” for spring training. This was not Tommy John surgery, and he has said there is no innings limit on him for 2025.. It’s possible they take it easy with him (maybe he misses the first series or two?), but talk of him not appearing until May or June seems baseless.
yes, please.
“shutty”? and i thought “shove” was annoying…
i like walker as a bounce back candidate. fwiw all reports indicate a high character human. could see him being the steal of the free agent class
Buehler seems like he has about 15 teams with serious interest.
It’s probably true. LAD would like him back (especially to keep him away from competitors) but no real room in the rotation
Many scouts will value him more on his results towards the end of the season (instead of the whole season) when he was further along in his recovery to surgery. Sometimes it takes awhile for the pitcher to get his full confidence back and trust his stuff. There is still some risk but you can almost say that about every pitcher
You would think some team will give him 3 or 4 years guaranteed OR 1 less year with an option. He’ll probably get opt outs and a full NTC.
Good or decent pitching is so valuable
They’re not just interested in “anyone”, they’re interested in Buehler.
Oh yeah.
Buehler is the poster child for “huh”? He seems to be evaluated by many teams as the guy you saw in WS–and in 2021. Not ’22, ’23 or “24. The talent evaluators might be right. I wonder how many TOR pitchers had three consecutive off/injured years and then returned to a high level of performance.
Meh. Two-time TJS recipient sounds like trouble.
Eovaldi.
didnt Taillion have 2 tjs … also i think ohtani has gone through tjs twice now too.
Eovaldi is real good even now, Taillon has had an ERA+ of 101 since his second TJS. That’s not enough to convince me that two TJS are safe.
he also has averaged 30 starts a year and 150+ innings with a 42-29 record since. How many Red sox pitchers can say that? Nick Pivetta the only one that comes close but they made him a reliever one of those years.
There are kids in their twenties that cant even get to 30 starts in a season let alone average 30 starts over multiple seasons. Durability counts for a team that hasnt had any.
At this point it’s more news to find out who ISN’T interested in Walker Buehler.
Im personally interested in Dick Fitts
That’s. What. She. Said.
I’ll show myself out
Another offseason of watching the Red Sox procrastinate while watching serious teams fill needs. In theory Chapman simply replaces Martin, and Wilson replaces an injured Murphy rehabbing TJ surgery. I don’t see any improvement on a team with bad defense, not much power, bad swing and miss, mediocre starting pitching, and a bad bullpen.
The word “interest” has no value with me anymore. I have seen the word “interested” in regard to nearly every player NOT playing for the Red Sox. There are too many teams willing to make improvements and fill needs to care about the fact you were interested in the players those other teams just signed.
What scares me is that the named solutions we needed are disappearing soon, and we are hearing more “interested” in regards to reclamations and second tier starters.
Will – you used an interesting word, procrastination., and you may be on to something. I think there was a time when agents may have circled back to John Henry before signing because they knew (at that time) that he was a player in the FA market.
But now, if the Sox aren’t offering a premium upfront they are just window dressing, because they have made the team an undesirable location.
So you’re right, they are proscrastinating because theyre not interested in paying
Yeah, I think the deal is they try to give the impression they are in on top tier guys when they have an internal team that comes up with a value for a player and they are not going to go past it. As we saw last year with Hernandez, that number is usually below what the market ends up at. I don’t use the word procrastination only in sense of waiting too long only, but in the sense of waiting for the chips to fall to others to get the market cleared down to the point of the level they are comfortable with on short term contracts on purpose.
Reclamations, platoon players, journeymen, fading players, bounce back guys, etc.
if the Sox aren’t offering a premium upfront they are just window dressing,
=====================
Once upon a time, the RS and NYY were the only game in town. After you got your best offer from the RS, you’d ask the NYY, and vice versa.
Now it’s the NYY, NYM, and LAD offering gazillions, and SD, and Philly not far behind them. If Cohen wants you, there is -0- reason to outbid him.
They’d have interest in bringing Jamie Moyer out of retirement, if they could.
nothing to see here. please disperse!
Red Sox will be scouting Rich Hill on the USA team.
Way to go Breslow!!!! A 1-6 record with an ERA north of 5. Yeah he is right in Breslow wheelhouse. They go from wanting to spend 700 million over 15 years for Soto to the dumpster diving again. Now you know they purposely underwhelmed Soto and Boras to trade the fan base. They had no intention of signing Soto. I knew it. All BS!!! I guess we go from “Full Throttle” last year and “All In” this year. Wake me up when Breslow gets out of the dumpster and signs a good player.
Red Sox should pass on this one. No more reclamation projects. Time to put some money into top level talent.
So I’ve read all the nonsense regarding who we sign and regarding Buehler. Also read someone say “recent numbers are awful”. Really? Did you watch the WS? This guy was electric, and when healthy one of the best in baseball. I’d sign him in a heartbeat.
I Like Walker B. But AFTER BURNS AND FREID! PONY TF UP YOU MOTHER F! WE’VE WAITED 6 LONG YEARS FOR THIS REBUILD TO END AND ITS FREID & BURNS! ACES ACES ACES THATS ALL YOU NEED TO DO! NO CASAS TRADE, NO CROCHET, NO BREGMAN, NEITHER OF HERNANDEZ OR SANTANDER LET OUR PROSPECTS FILL THE 2B, RHB, OF WISHES! TRADE YOSHIDA FINE BUT FOR THE LOVE OF ALL THAT’S HOLY SIGN FREID AND BURNS! YOU’RE WAITING TOO LONG AND TOSSING BS GRENADES INTO THE MIDDLE OF A WELL EXECUTED REBUILD! YOU HAVE THE TRADE DEADLINE AND NEXT OFF SEASON TO TINKER. GO GET FREID AND BURNS AND LET THE REST SETTLE…TANNER SCOTT IF YOU WANT BUT ACES! ACES! THAT’S WHAT REDSOX NATION WANTS! WE KNOW YOU HAVE THE COIN! SPEND IT! WHO CARES ABOUT THE QO PROSPECT DRAFT LOSS WE HAVE ENOUGH IF YOU GET ACES 2 OF THEM NOW!
A Yoshida trade to open the DH, and two stud starters is the bare minimum, and I have very low expectations in this.
I assumed from the start that they will bet on Grissom and Rafaela to fill the second baseman/outfield righty hitters’ scenarios, and that there is no way they will acquire the first dominant lefty reliever option since 2013.
They are not getting that power right-handed bat unless they unload Yoshida, Abreu, or both.
I am beginning to think that rather than go with the better fixes I have advocated for; they will choose to unload players that will hurt far more.
A righty slugger is a luxury. I want two SPs, a #1 and #2. And I am flexible on the #2 depending on the #1.
The Red Sox need to STOP signing injured players or players just recovering from a major injury — I DON’T want to be a hopeful fan, I WANT to be a happy fan — Spend the $$ or trade for top players and STOP being so cheap!
This is the guy !! They can turn him around and get him back to what he once was. He is Inexpensive piece and they can use the money saved to not go after any of next year’s free agents.
The Red Sox are “interested in (insert player name) = He will be signing anywhere but Boston. Once all the top and mid tier free agents are signed, Breslow will state “we really feel (insert reclamation project) can help this team”.
Ever since MLB allowed teams to pay for titles they’ve ruined the authenticity of the game. Because now teams no longer organically win titles. They pay to have a way higher percentage to win a title then the other 25 teams which is corny and bad for the sport.
Cos it takes all the excitement away from the game. If teams were all on an even playing field games would be way more competitive and teams that haven’t won titles before would get a chance to win and surprise people. But unfortunately like everything else money has destroyed MLB.