After a successful 2024 campaign that saw the Padres return to the postseason despite cutting payroll and trading Juan Soto, president of baseball operations A.J. Preller is doubtlessly looking to improve his team over the winter. To that end, he told MLB.com’s AJ Cassavell that he’s looking to address holes in the corner outfield, the starting rotation, and behind the dish. None of that is especially surprising considering some of the players the Padres lost to free agency this winter, namely left fielder Jurickson Profar, starter Martín Pérez, and catcher Kyle Higashioka. Moreover, starter Joe Musgrove will miss the 2025 season after undergoing Tommy John surgery, leaving the rotation without much depth.
With that said, the Padres have not yet been linked to many free agents to fill those holes. They’re interested in starter Roki Sasaki (per ESPN), but at this point, so is just about everyone else. When it comes to catchers, they’re starting to run out of options, with Higashioka, Travis d’Arnaud, Danny Jansen, and Gary Sánchez off the market and Carson Kelly nearing a deal with the Cubs. As for corner outfielders, the Padres haven’t been strongly connected to anyone yet; Preller told Cassavell he hasn’t closed the door on a reunion with Profar, but that’s pretty much it.
Similarly, the Padres have expressed some interest in bringing back Ha-Seong Kim, although the infield seems to be less of a priority. After all, the team already has an internal option to replace Kim at the keystone: Jake Cronenworth can play more often at second base and Luis Arraez can play more often at first.
Bolstering the bullpen isn’t at the top of Preller’s to-do list either, but ESPN’s Jorge Castillo recently included the Padres on a list of suitors for right-hander Jonathan Loáisiga. While the Padres lost Tanner Scott to free agency, they still have a pair of imposing back-end relievers in Robert Suarez and Jason Adam. Jeremiah Estrada and Adrian Morejon also enjoyed strong breakout seasons in 2024, while Yuki Matsui was solid in his first taste of MLB action. Even so, there’s no such thing as too much bullpen talent, and Loáisiga is the kind of high-upside arm it can’t hurt to check in on. Due to numerous arm injuries over the past three years (most recently a torn UCL), he’s unlikely to sign for multiple years or much money. However, he was dominant the last time he was healthy in 2021, tossing 70 2/3 innings with a 2.17 ERA. He flashed a 98 mph sinker and nasty sweeping curveball in a handful of outings earlier this year, and it’s possible he’ll be back from his internal brace procedure in time for Opening Day.
So, why might the Padres be particularly interested in a buy-low free agent like Loáisiga? Perhaps it’s the same reason they haven’t linked to many other free agents, even at areas of greater need. Kevin Acee of The San Diego Union-Tribune writes that San Diego’s payroll will likely fall somewhere in between last year’s final tally of $169MM and the current RosterResource estimate of $210MM for 2025. In other words, Preller might need to get some cash off the books before can start spending.
One idea to help the Padres reduce payroll that’s recently been picking up steam is trading Dylan Cease. According to Acee, they have indeed discussed the idea with other teams at the Winter Meetings. It’s not clear how serious those discussions are; some of Acee’s sources suggest the Padres are actively shopping the right-hander, while others suggest they’re merely open to offers.
Needless to say, Cease isn’t a player most contending teams would consider trading. According to FanGraphs, he was worth 4.8 WAR in 2024 and 17.2 WAR over the past four seasons. That’s not the kind of production that’s easy to replace at any price, let alone his $13.7MM projected salary. That said, this wouldn’t be the first time Preller has traded a star player while remaining competitive. Perhaps he’s confident the Padres will land Sasaki. Alternatively, he could be planning to trade for Garrett Crochet; the Padres have been linked to the White Sox ace. Those might be the only two options for San Diego to replace a top-of-the-rotation pitcher like Cease at a lower salary.
Indeed, without Sasaki or Crochet, it’s hard to imagine how trading Cease wouldn’t set the Padres back. After all, Preller himself said that adding a starting pitcher was a priority this offseason. Beyond Cease, Michael King, and Yu Darvish, the Padres rotation is all question marks. Randy Vásquez struggled in his first season with San Diego, while Matt Waldron quickly slowed down after a hot start in 2024. Dealing Cease could help the Padres fill other holes on the roster, but without a frontline starter to take his place, such a move might just be one step forward and two steps back.
Too many words to say so little.
It’s December 11th and NO ONE knows what Preller has up his sleeve.
I have faith in the guy. If Cease and Arreaz get traded so be it. Just make sure you can get back guys ready to contribute or be used as a trade chip for another deal.
Precisely
I proposed Cease, Peralta, and a 15-20 range prospect for Mayo and Suarez, on an Orioles board, and they were happy with it. Several suggested Kjerstad instead of Mayo..which works ok for me too.
One thing we know..AJ is for sure gonna make at least 1 big trade this offseason, and this seems to be an ok fit.
If the fans were ok with it, its not close to enough.
Would have to be more like Cease and mid-level prospect (Papalham or Morgan?) for Suarez, Mayo, and Kyle Bradish, plus another lottery ticket prospect like Joshua Liranzo who Preller was known to be heavily scouting before he signed with the Orioles and who trains with Fernando Tatis Sr in the DR.
Remember Cease is a 28 year old Ace.
Suarez is 35 years old, was a back of the rotation starter/swingman for the Orioles, and hadn’t pitched in the majors since 2017 before last year. He has almost no value in trade.
The rest of the players would be the ones making the trade worthwhile.
Cease isn’t an ace. He’s a #3 in a good rotation, with 1 year left of control, and Bradish too? If I’m the O’s, I immediately hang up the phone. Mayo is one of the top prospects in baseball, who they soured on a bit last year when he struggled after coming up. Not to mention he’s under control for 5 years.
PS-The O’s need bullpen help, and Peralta is a proven, leverage reliever who the Padres simply don’t need, and GUARANTEE AJ would love to offload his salary..which makes him a fit on both sides to be involved.
Cease isn’t an ace? According to Fangraphs he has a higher fWAR the past three years then any of the free agent starters that were available this offseason, and 5th best in baseball.
Last 4 years he ranks 6th best fWAR with Burnes sneaking ahead of him, and no pitcher has started more games.
With how stupid expensive pitching is this offseason I imagine he’d land a very nice package at his cheap 13m salary with the ability to recoup a prospect after the 2025 season.
Cease did finish 4th in CY
Cease is an Ace. He is top 5 in MLB
fangraphs.com/leaders/major-league?pos=all&st…
4.8 WAR, 189 IP, sub 3.50 ERA and 3.10 FIP = Ace.
He’s absolutely not an ace. Watched every game last year, and he runs extremely hot and cold. He’s a fine 2-3, but an ace? Michael King is more of an ace than Cease.
RonDarlingShouldntBeInTheHallOfFame;
I really doubt the O’s trade a top prospect with 6 years of control along with a pitcher that saved the staff in 2024 for a one-year rental and a 37 year-old corner OF.
LOL
The posters on this board think MLB is rotisserie league and all that counts is the coming season……next year there’ll be another draft.
If they had followed up on the Cease rumor, they would know that Preller was approached, he didn’t seek out other teams. While he is open to trading anyone if it makes the team better, see Soto for an example, none of those teams made him an offer because of what he told them he wanted in return. He is apparently asking more for Cease than he gave up to get him. I would guess the reason is that Cease was much better as a Padre than he was in 2023 as a White Sox. A full point better in ERA.
AJ Preller would trade his own grandmother if it would get a deal done. And I hear AJP really LOVES his grandmother.
Preller would trade his grandmother if it made the team better, like he did Soto. But not just to get a trade done.
Proved my point. Padres are penny pinching.
Tow…you’re a total goof ball. I read your posts in Eeyore’s voice. Hahaha
But he’s our goof
Brew…this is true. Hahaha
Facts speak for themselves.
Facts have no place in baseball or a court room…
LOL
All God’s children got “facts”.
Owner had cancer. Memento mori, spent like a dying man to win it all. Unfortunately for SD he passed and there is a significant mess left behind.
Yeah…a 2nd round exit from the playoffs and near capacity crowds every home game. It’s a huge mess that most other teams would kill to have. Poor San Diego…
Jeremy, aren’t we all dying?
Gonna be another buy and sell offseason for the padres.
Cease
Arraez
Suarez
Cronenworth
Those are the top 4 to go. Wouldn’t be shocked if they all were traded.
As long as we get comparable or better, I’m okay with it.
Cronenworth’s contract is almost impossible to trade. But you can put Morejon on the list. He is cheap and clubs will be asking about him.
I think Cron is due for a bounce back and AJ will have to attach young talent to get him out the door in a deal. Plus eat some dead prez paper…
The prices so far this offseason have been very high. So perhaps he is movable. Cronenworth was still a 2 war player. Lefty who can play multiple spots. Could be useful on the Yankees. Think his aav is like 11m.
Sorry, doubt Yankees have any interest in Cronenworth…unless you got another Juan Soto lying around for us (LOL).
Preller has already said he’s not eating money or attaching prospects to trade Cronenworth.
@FanDan. He makes 11m/yr. Have you seen the salaries being handed out right now? You can say he’s un-tradable all you want, but it doesn’t make it true.
A) Preller has tried to trade him and can’t without giving up more than he wants to as sweetners. And that is because
B) the length of the deal. Out to 2030 and his performance the last couple of years has already shown decline at the plate.
Then he will keep him.
Fan:
2023 – 1.0 WAR, 89 ops+, 10 HR
2024 – 1.9 WAR, 99 ops+, 17 HR
Insert any stets you like if you don’t like these.
“His performance the last couple of years has already shown decline at the plate.”
Don’t let facts get in the way of a good argument.
99, 89 OPS+. Last 2 seasons. Below league average. Was 109 is 2022. Higher in 2021. Yes, he has declined. Hence GMs are not banging on Preller’s door for his services.
With 1 WAR valued at about 9 mil and he only cost 7 mil in 2024. 11 mil in 2025 – a league average vet multi positional guy makes 11 mil these days.
Now, there may be a lot to choose from so why trade for Cro? I’ll give you that but it isn’t like he is over paid.
And you say he was declining the last couple of years and that he wasn’t worth his contract while stats show he improved last year and is well worth his production.
He may not be a highly sought after trade piece but that doesn’t make him overpaid.
Again, I didn’t say he was overpaid. The issue is the length of the contract. If he was a FA, no GM is giving him a 6 year deal. He is an average player north of 30 and six years makes him inflexible to move. If he was on a 2 or 3 year deal, maybe.
I love reading when posters on here discuss players by posting their relative WAR.
LOL
It’s like reading a 1/2 page handout titled: “Brain Surgery
For Dummies”.
Non-fan Dan, Preller has never tried to trade Cronenworth. He said so on Monday. He did say teams have approached him about his availability, but said “Cronenworth makes the Padres better.” He didn’t say he wouldn’t trade him, but then Preller would make any trade if it made the team better. See Soto for proof of that.
This was the first year of Cronenworth’s deal, he earned $7,285,714, and with his 2.0 WAR the team received a 131% surplus value. Even at his deal’s $11.43 million AAV that is a 63% surplus value. If all he ever does is repeat that, its well worth it for the Padres.
And yet they are. Preller said he had been approached about Cronenworth’s availability in trade this offseason.
Its pretty clear that you don’t understand that there is more to baseball than hitting.
Apparently its not an issue since Preller said that he had been approached by multiple teams inquiring about Cronenworth’s availability in trade.
But then you are rarely correct and won’t bother listening to what the actual parties involved are saying, so correcting you is pissing up a rope.
I don’t see Cro going anywhere. His AAV is not too high for his glove, versatility, durability, fielding awareness, along with some pop and a decent OBP. The dude plays every day and puts out max effort. I bet he comes in heavier and stronger this spring. (Fist and flexing emojis are placed here)
I would be flabbergasted. How do the Padres compete by trading away an Ace, their closer, and 2 starting position players?
Better than even money says none of them are traded.
No one taking Cronenworth unless he’s packaged with Cease
Or Salas…
As much as I like Cronenworth, I have to agree with you. I’m not sure that he’ll ever fully meet his contract’s expectations, but one thing I’m pretty certain about. He won’t drop of the edge of the productivity cliff. He’s just no built that way. He won’t delivering 0 WAR or 1 WAR seasons.
He kind of reminds me of Greg Garcia, but just a little more of everything, e.g. talent, offensive productivity, defense, flexibility..
Yes, and he’s been healthy for the most part, which often goes under appreciated when we look at long term contracts ( ie, Musgrove deal not a bargain)
Lol, which is also a major argument for keeping Cease, i.e. health and showing up.
Again, if they expect Preller to eat money or attach players with value to Cronenworth just to get rid of him they will simply keep him.
Cronenworth is already WAY into surplus value at 2.0 WAR.
Cronenworth made $7 million in 2024 and his AAV is $11.3 million. At 2.0 WAR he provides surplus value every year and his positional flexibility makes him very valuable.
I take it you haven’t been watching the MLB Network coverage of the Winter Meetings. You obviously missed what Preller said.
I can see letting Kim hit the market. But trading Cease and letting Profar go would be a silly mistake. Don’t try to fix what isn’t broken.
“Letting Profar go”? Both Profar and the Pads are a good match, in both their interests. However, Profar will be 32 years old come February. He’s had exactly one (1) breakout season. The rest of his history has been spotty. No one would bet on his exceeding or even meeting, 2024 productivity.
Not knocking Pro, but after taking a $1M contract late in Spring just to be able to continue his career, if he can get a 3-4 year contract somewhere over $40M, he’s going to grab it like a drowning man.
On the other hand, if you were Preller, would you invest that money in Profar, or possibly add it towards a long term extension for Merrill? Or, maybe use that cash for pitching and backfill LF with Tirso Ornelas or Tyler Wade?
If Profar isn’t with the Padres next year, it isn’t because AJP “let Profar go”, but because him leaving was in both the Padres and Profar’s best interests. That’s kind of how the business of baseball works.
I love Profar at 1m, will say goodbye at 10+ which he will likely get.
I’d be ok with an Ornelas time share to open the season. He looks like he’s ready, and has a fairly similar profile to Profar. Might be time he gets his shot.
RonHOF, if you watched Ornelas from April to early August you were witness to a superb display of hitting. Then he seemed to either wear out or lose interest about the time the Chihuahuas were eliminated from playoff contention in August.
In the MPWL right now he is back to tearing the cover off the ball. Last time I looked he was 5th in the league in OPS at a .922. All the guys ahead of him were current or former MLB players.
Ornelas played all 3 OF positions, 1B and DH for the Chihuahuas. I really want to see him get a shot.
Now if Profar comes back at something like 3/24, then Ornelas is the 4th OF. Otherwise let the kid play.
I love the energy Profar brings and he is an awesome guy on and off the field.
Profar has been a 1.3 WAR per season player over the last 4 seasons and that includes his career year in 2024. he is now 32 years old, so performance close to that average is what people should expect if they sign him, not the 3.6 WAR from 2024.
If he can get $12-15 million on a 3 year deal that most are saying he will get, he should take it.. That money will never come again. .
I just hope that the Padres are not the one to give him that type of money. No, its not my money, but I would rather see that money spent elsewhere like starting pitching and a catcher.
Or the extension for Merrill that OldSalt spoke of.
Is there anyone who doesn’t believe that Preller is going to do something? He never keeps the Madres static. This, and he always, somehow, keeps his farm well stocked.
The farm was ranked by MLB Pipeline as 28th out of 30 organizations. Well stocked is not the term that comes to mind.
It’s been thinned out but give it a year or so. It still has two top prospects.
Fair enough. I was basing it on past history.
” ranked by MLB Pipeline as 28th out of 30 organizations.”
Citation?
Here is one. bleacherreport.com/articles/10136313-final-mlb-far…
Here is another.
mlb.com/news/farm-system-rankings-2024-in-season
Thanks. The MLB.com article is dated August 2024, and the bleacher report is from September. I would expect the Pads ranking to move upward by Spring training. We’ll see.
Old Salt, the updates come out in late January. Usually about 10 days after the International Free Agent opening date.
From everything I heard since Monday the Padres should have 2 more players join that top 100 list and Salas and De Vries will flip in position, both being in the top 30. If they keep all their prospects, the Padres won’t be 28th come opening day.
The main reason I say that is because Padres draftees did not get any playing time other than in complex games, so not many of the grading services know anything about them. Many will fly up the charts once spring training starts.
Keep an eye out for Cobb Hightower, a SS from NC that the Padres took in the 3rd round. I think he is going to shoot up the charts once people see him in game action. His combination of excellent bat to ball skills and above average bat speed, coupled with plus speed was exciting to watch in backfield scrimmage games in Peoria this fall.
Another I really liked was this huge kid out of Nebraska named Kale Fountain. 6’5″ or 6’6″ and maybe 240. Built like a linebacker. When he caught up with one it went a long way. He hit a few from the east field at the Peoria complex that went into Skunk Creek. He has some serious pop. Not sure how he will do against advanced breaking stuff.
Like you said, we’ll see.
I could see him dumping some prospects for crochet. If he does and signs Sasaki, then kiss cease goodbye.
To stay under the tax they would need to cut about 3m in payroll while adding starting pitching, LF, Cather and dh/infield type.
Simm – “under the te tax”. After resetting in 2024, of they go over by 10 mil, it’s only a 2 mil tax. Hardly with crying over.
2024 was all about resetting. Most teams will need to endure the process.
The other benefit is if they QO a number of guys at the end of 2025. I’m aware they reset the tax. I’m just going by reports (for what they are worth) that they may want to stay under.
Padrs cannot stay under the CBT threshold. They are $3 million over today and have to add a catcher, a LF, a SP, and a couple of bench players. They will be close to the $261 million 2nd tier CBT threshold.
I’ve seen a couple of different sets of numbers, Padres versus their CBT number, so I’m not entirely certain they are already over the lux-tax limit. However, I think you’re right, i.e. Preller needs to move some salary.
After what Preller accomplished last year, anyone doubting his ability to get the job done for 2025 is …uh… short-sighted to say the least (or maybe a village idiot). He’ll do what he needs to do to put a competitive team on the field by Spring Training. However, no one including Preller knows whether that team will be deep enough in ’25 to compete in October, i.e. due to injuries and the unexpected.
Both Cots and Roster Resource have them over the CBT threshold as of today.
I think Tirso is the most likely scenario
@Brew Agreed. Seems like if Profar leaves, the job is between Ornelas, Lockridge, and Gonzalez..which isn’t the worst thing in the world. AJ can make a deal if none of those listed are ready or struggle out of the gate.
Have to wait till late January on Roki, and I do expect the Pads won’t make any moves until then. If they land him, then the dominos fall and Cease likely gone I agree
January 15th is first day Sasaki can sign.
The farm system at the moment is not very deep beyond Salas and De Vries. That said, I would not put it past Preller to see it replenished and reloaded at some point in the near future.
Padres should sign Fujinami. He’d be a good arm for them.
Backup catcher is always interesting, no stand out options in FA. Big loss in Higashioka.
Can’t wait until the rosters are all set this is getting tiring.
Diaz probably comes back. Let’s hope Campy is healthy and those that know believe his injuries were the cause of his drop off.
Why? Fujinami is 30 years old and has yet to be an effective reliever in the majors.
I got a feeling about Fujinami. Honestly just been a fan of his since he came into the league.
I try to be objective but the fan in me likes to promote my favorite players.
I’m Trout of here!
Pads fan- hence why reports of them shedding payroll. Trade a Cease, brings them back under with a little money to spend. Perhaps even others.
Preller said three guys morejon, hoeing and Kolek will all be looked at as starters in spring.
Sasaki if they can get him cost league min… nothing. Perhaps they go after crochet because he cost nearly nothing.
Don’t be surprised if the padres subtract and add.
Kolek? Didn’t see that one but ok
For every hot reliver prospect, I’ll always be thinking “Jeremy Fikac”. Bullpens are a volatile place to live. Rookie relievers, 10x more.
Simm, there has been no credible reports of the Padres shedding payroll. Preller did not say so on Monday or today.
The opposite is true since the new control person Kutsenda, the CEO Greupner, and the GM have all said that they are hoping to be closer to (the $231 million of) 2024 than (the $291 million of) 2023, but that they have no set payroll in mind. All 3 have said almost the same exact thing. Their stated focus as an organization is on winning. That is all they have said.
I believe that Preller will do whatever if takes to make the team better this year. If that means moving Cease, he would do it. But can you really envision a Padres team that is better without Cease? What players would it take to make that happen?
Tonight it was reported that the Padres said that a trade (of Cease) is not considered likely at this time. AJ said; “It’s that time of year where you’re always going to get incoming phone calls when you have good players, and this year’s been active on that front.” People are calling but AJ has set a super high price. So far at least two sources have said the Padres would want MULTIPLE controllable MLB ready players including 2 SP. More than they paid for Cease in player capital.
Morosi said today that the Padres had asked for Wilyer Abreu, Marcelo Mayer, Richard Fitts, and Wikelman Gonzalez when the Red Sox came calling about a potential Cease trade. Does that sound like the Padres are interested in moving Cease? It the Red Sox are willing to part with that group I would think Preller should do it because it would make the team better like the Soto trade did.
Crochet is set to earn $2.9 million and he would cost most of the Padres top prospects in trade.
What Preller actually said about the potential of those 3 being looked at as starters was, “Everybody understands when you have starting pitching, not just at the top of the market — we get hit all the time on guys on our staff that people think could start, people think are going to take a step up as a starter”
Morejon has threw 70 innings in 2024 between San Diego and rehab and just 180 innings over the past 5 seasons. We won’t see him as a starter at the beginning of 2025
Kolek threw even fewer innings in 2024 but he was a starter in AA a few years back.
Hoeing could be a possibility as a swingman.
I fully expect that the Padres will subtract and add, Preller does every offseason, just not in the way you seem to.
As someone who held season tickets when the Friars played at Jack Murphy Stadium… I can tell you that I have never seen a better judge of horse flesh than AJ Preller…
He is a master strategist at giving his GM the tools to compete,.. TRUST PADRE FANS…!!!
Pads fan- what do you think their opening day payroll will be? Can give me the tax number. They are currently at about 244m (tax).
I’ll go with 250m (tax number). Which means they will add a total of 6m more in tax.
I predict in order to do that they will trade some of the current mlb players. To balance the payroll for this year while filling in holes.
That’s my guess, not my desire.
what do padres fans (or anyone) think of jackson merrill? is he a potential superstar? should SD extend him now before he demands soto $ as a FA in 5 yrs?
I would extend Merrill now if possible. I think he’s the real deal.
With that said, I can’t see him being worth a Soto level contract in 5 years.
Theyre not extending Merrill this year for the same aav budget reason. If he signs an extension, even if he only gets a 750k salary next year, his aav will go up to the avg salary value…20+M ish. So that means theyd need to cut an additional 20M elsewhere. You extend Merrill next offseason, after he proves it yr 2, and when Hosmer’s salary finally, finally comes off the books
You extend in year 2, you just cost yourself more leverage and the price just went up a lot.
@John-Yes. He seems like he’s only going to grow into more power too. Not sure about extending him this offseason, but definitely think they should soon.
at 21 yrs old he had a phenomenal rookie season
he could develop into the next bobby witt
or he could disappoint like michael harris
excited to see what 2025 has in store for merrill. i think he got overshadowed by skenes & chourio as a rookie
Michael Harris has put up 11.7 WAR his 1st 3 seasons including 3.2 WAR in 2024. That is still very good.
Where Harris’ calling card has always been his OF defense, Merrill was playing CF for the 1st time in his career in 2024. Merrill was known for his 65-70 FV hit tool while playing almost exclusively at SS (178 of 186 games) in the minors.
I think Merrill grows into more power and gets better in CF. If his last 3 months are any indication, he can be a plus defensive CF.
Merrill should have been ROY, hands down. That’s not “homer” bias. That’s the records he broke, his productivity, vis-a-vise the challenges the rookie overcame moving to CF. He played not just an “average CF”, but elite. He was a MLB leading playmaker, i.e. walkoffs, game saving catches, getting on base when no one could, etc.
Everything that the Baseball talking heads expected from Tatis, Merrill has nearly achieved out of the box in his first year.
He may have the proverbial “sophomore setback” season in 2025, but I expect him to just keep on getting better with both his bat and defense. What could he do if he was moved back to shortstop? I wouldn’t want to lose his productivity in CF, either, but he was top ranked at short before he hit the major leagues.
Extend him ASAP, as soon as AJP can find the budget for it.
Players are going to be very hard to extend after seeing Sotos payout.
One could make the same statement about Ohtani’s contract, or any of maybe 100 other mega contracts over the past ten years. The argument for extension is always the same. Financial security for the rest of his life, plus no arbitration or other distractions through the first half of Merrill’s career, versus waiting 5 years, maybe being injured, suffering underperformance, or whatever, and receiving only a fraction of the extension figure over his career. The Padres are risking a princely sum, but saving $100’s of millions and creating long term stability in their line-up.
Plus, the way extensions are configured now, Merrill may have opt-outs or escalator pay-bumps factored in, and he’s young enough that his first F.A. period will come during his prime.
That’s why extensions get done. They aren’t a “gift” from either side.
Sure they are. Bobby Witt is probably looking at a 500 million + loss by extending. Acuna a couple hundred million. Carroll a couple hundred million. It’s not like arbitration years aren’t highly compensated for stars. The pre arbitration years really don’t change much except for maybe getting some bonus money. You saw how much it escalated by Soto being 26 and not 30. Hit the free agency as young as possible and these contracts go through the roof.
Mets, Witt got a deal that guarantees him $288,777,777 over 11 years plus a team option for 3 more years for $89 million after that for a total of $378 million not including award bonuses, one of which he has already collected. Are you trying to say that he would have gotten a deal for more than $878 million? I want whatever you are smoking.
He’s the best player in baseball and would have hit the market at 27. If you don’t think his contract would have gone into the 800 or 900 million then you are clueless. He’s in the most premium position and the best at it. He would have blown away Soto’s deal.
Yup, you are trying to say that. Kinda sad. Oh well. Not everyone can actually have a solid grasp of baseball or baseball economics.
Juan Soto through age 24 – 28.5 WAR 156 OPS+
Bobby Witt Jr through age 24 – 14.7 WAR 130 OPS+
Soto did it with hitting and plate discipline which ages well.
Witt did it with his legs and defense which always goes first.
Witt would not have come close to Soto’s deal.
#1 because he would have been going into FA AFTER he finished his age 27 season. Soto just completed his age 25 season. 2 years is a HUGE difference.
#2 because would not have received close to 15 years contract. Getting 11-12 years going into his age 28 season would have been the most.
#3 because people that understand baseball well know his defining skill set is what ages/declines fastest.
But hey, you do you boo.
He’s the real ROY and yes future perennial AS
Merrill is a superstar. The Padres should extend him ASAP with a deal that starts in 2026. He will never get Soto money, but I can see him getting Bobby Witt money. 11/280. to 13/330 is realistic. Maybe more considering how much top position players like Adames are getting this year.
I could see AJ trading for Nestor Cortes now that the Yankees signed Max Fried.
I would prefer to keep Cease and Arraez, but could see one or both moved given their projected arbitration numbers.
It’s gonna be another more of the same as last season: buy-low candidates (Profar, Peralta, Solano) as complements to the expensive core. I have a feeling we’ll see a guy like Bryan De La Cruz in LF this season.
I’d be ok with Nestor as the #5 with Vasquez/Waldron as depth..
@Steve – What do you think the Padres give up for Cortes? I expect Cortes would have a lot of appeal to teams like Guardians, Giants, Rangers, Cubs, Tigers, Brewers. Doubt Yankees would deal him to Orioles.
I’m not sure, to be honest. He was the first name to pop up in my head as a starter that could be available via trade.
It’d have to include salary relief. Wonder if they’d take Cronenworth to serve as their 2b/utility guy. Maybe the Pads throw in a prospect? I don’t see Nestor’s market being that big..but may be wrong..
Cortes is a FA at the end of the season. He is a good pitcher, but has had health issues in most of the last 6 seasons. He would certainly still get bidders.
I would be happy with Cortes as a back of the rotation starter for the Padres. Who would they have to give up to get him?
Padres already have better than De La Cruz waiting in the wings. Tirso Ornelas is finally ready for the big time and he would be the player to take over LF if the Padres don’t make a move.
Last season Preller traded for King, Thorpe, Vasquez, Brito, and Higgy then traded for Cease.
I would take more of the same. Wouldn’t you?
Absolutely, I would. It would be nice to be in on notable free agents, but ownership wanting to stay under the luxury tax plus existing long-term contracts make that unlikely. I’m definitely curious to see what moves AJ ends up making.
More local & national eyes than ever on my Padres. Perfect time for them to drop the facade and show themselves for who we’ve always known them to be…
Cease and Arraez to Boston for Casas, Yoshida, and prospects for taking on remainder of Yoshidas contract.
Boston picks up a front line starter in cease, put Devers at 1B, Arraez at 2B for the interim, trade for arenado to man 3B.
Padres pick up an actual 1B, put cronenworth at 2B, put Yoshida at DH, clear salary, and pick up some prospects for taking on remainder of yoshidas contract.
Question is what prospects would need to be included. Or prospect if you include a single better quality prospect.
Maybe Luis Perales, Mikey Romero, and Hunter Dobbins
I am not sure I would pair those two together. Better to spread around to other club. Pairings with Suarez and Morejon make sense.
Padres trading cease is to shed payroll. Instead of a prospect back the Red Sox eat some of his salary. Padres can stick him in left.
Kind of amazing that Boston fans continually make Cases a headliner in trades with anyone….who has said that Casas is that valuable….seems pretty average based on what we’ve seen so far….especially as a headliner in trades for guys like Cease and batting champ Arraez…..come on….lets get real here…..Yoshida is a very average player with not too much power and they’d have to clean out the farm to even contemplate this trade…..
Arraez has a career ops+ of 118. Yoshida 111. They’re not they far off offensively. Defensively they’re both not great. Casas has posted a 125 and is natural 1B under control for another 4 or so years.
You’re also missing the major point of the trade. Clear money while remaining competitive. Trading a projected 14 mill in cease and projected 14 mill in Arraez while taking back 18 mill in Yoshida
1. Saves the padres 10 mill for 2024 getting them under the cbt threshold
2. Fills needs at 1B replaces DH or possibly Profar in the OF
3. Restocks the farm with some prospects for taking Yoshidas contract in 2025 and 2026 after Preller has once again depleted the farm attempting to compete with the boys in blue up north.
This doesn’t really save the padres 10m bc they still need to replace cease. Taking back yoshida for prospects doesn’t really make sense. Sox need to pay down his deal.
The RS would probably do Cronenworth for Yoshida straight up. I could see them throwing in cash to get it done too.
Padres def would not do that deal. If they move him it will likely be to save money.
Agreed, and I think the RS would too. They’d need to agree to kick in 10-20m, but they seem to want to get out from under Yoshida, and the needs fit.
That’s also a possibility true.
But I wonder who would play ss and 1b for the padres cause Bogaerts would stay at 2B. Yoshida would replace i suppose Profar.
Pods will keep Cease in 2025 for the final year of contending window. Then they will say goodbye to Cease, King, Arraez, Suarez and anyone else not under contract who wants > $5M. But there will be more bobblehead giveaways.
I will be very surprised if the Padres trade away a very reasonably priced starter like Cease. I would imagine a lot of teams will be interested if they do.
Acee Schmaycee! Pads going into CBT land once again… with or without you Kevin!
>.<
The Padres missed a golden opportunity in 2023 by not trading Snell, Hader, and Soto at the trade deadline.
… and, they and PS would have broken faith with Padres fans. P.S. committed that the Padres would play competitive baseball every year. He was a man of his word, in that he and AJP did everything humanly possible to put that type of team on the field.
I could see Alex Verdugo being a fit for the Padres even if they bring Profar back. They can try and bring back Elias Diaz to backup Campusano, if not there’s still James McCann, Reese McGuire, Omar Narvaez, Luke Maile, Curt Casali, Yasmani Grandal, Martin Maldonado, Yan Gomes and Tucker Barnhart available and many of them can be had on minor league deals with low base salaries at the MLB level
Ya know, regarding Jackson Merrill, I just have a sneaking suspicion that he may get some reps at short during Spring Training. Some of this depends, of course, on what moves Preller makes. However, if Merrill is the best SS available to the Padres, why would they play him in CF? Having a guy like Merrill in CF is a real, nice luxury, but if he’s capable of playing a premium shortstop, maybe it’s an unaffordable luxury. Finding above average CF (e.g. defensively) with a little pop is easier than finding a premium SS.
And, the kicker, e.g. deciding factor would likely be how well Merrill did in his first year. He can flat out adapt, on the fly. The risk for moving a guy like Merrill around a bit, is 180 degrees opposite of, for example, Bogaerts. Not knocking Bogi, but routine is his friend. He appears to do his best when he has fixed goals, and doesn’t need to adapt.
Merrill does his best by being the center of chaos, lol.
Schildt said the other day on the Foul Territory podcast that Merrill would not be moving back to SS. Nor would Tatis. I agree with that 100%. Merrill’s defense at SS never got crazy high marks while he looked like a natural in CF.
It’s going to be a tough offseason for the Padres, and Preller is going to have to get creative. They don’t have a lot of money to spend, and their farm is considered to be shallow and one of the worst in the league.
At least we all know Preller is going to take a few shots.
Cease, Cronenworth and Arraez to the Tigers for Tork and a mix of young MLB ready and minor league pitchers. Choose from some combo of guys not named Jobe like Manning, Melton, Hamm, Montero, Madden et al… The Tigers need a #2 starter, they have payroll space, they need bats and could play Cronenworth at 3B and Arraez at 1B/DH.
That deal would cost the Tigers arms that you wouldn’t want them to give up, and trade Padres players who Padre fans would be pissed about losing lol. It’d be difficult to replace Arraez bat. He wouldn’t be a throw in piece.
Croneworth can play any IF position, but he’s GG at 2nd (and capable at SS). If the Tigers are trading for Croneworth, they’ll want him in the position where he’s of most value.
But I do agree, looking at what the Padres need (i.e. $$$) and can afford to lose, Crone and Arraez are on that list. If they send Cease, the Pads would have to get MLB ready pitching in return. However, this type of deal might work for the Pads after January 15th, if the Padres can add Sadaki. With Musgrove out for the year, I don’t see how they can part with Cease without getting a pitcher (at least #2-3 starter level) to replace his lost innings.
Add in Olson. He is the Tigers #3 and a solid one. Cheers dude.
Cease and Arraez trades in separate deals would restock the Padres team with great, young talent to compete now.
I could see that happening.
Many teams with great farm systems and young talent could use Cease.
Arraez would get a lot of interest too.
And, the Padres farm system is getting restocked and much better than some people realize.
Then, with the money saved by shedding their 2 contracts, Preller could fill in any more holes in th
The Padres have 2 of the top International free agent phenoms knocking on the door to the major leagues in SS Devries and catcher Ethan Salas.
Simm, there has been no credible reports of the Padres shedding payroll. Preller did not say so on Monday or today.
The opposite is true since the new control person Kutsenda, the CEO Greupner, and the GM have all said that they are hoping to be closer to (the $231 million of) 2024 than (the $291 million of) 2023, but that they have no set payroll in mind. All 3 have said almost the same exact thing. Their stated focus as an organization is on winning. That is all they have said.
I believe that Preller will do whatever if takes to make the team better this year. If that means moving Cease, he would do it. But can you really envision a Padres team that is better without Cease? What players would it take to make that happen?
Tonight it was reported that the Padres said that a trade (of Cease) is not considered likely at this time. AJ said; “It’s that time of year where you’re always going to get incoming phone calls when you have good players, and this year’s been active on that front.” People are calling but AJ has set a super high price. So far at least two sources have said the Padres would want MULTIPLE controllable MLB ready players including 2 SP. More than they paid for Cease in player capital.
Morosi said today that the Padres had asked for Wilyer Abreu, Marcelo Mayer, Richard Fitts, and Wikelman Gonzalez when the Red Sox came calling about a potential Cease trade. Does that sound like the Padres are interested in moving Cease? It the Red Sox are willing to part with that group I would think Preller should do it because it would make the team better like the Soto trade did.
Crochet is set to earn $2.9 million and he would cost most of the Padres top prospects in trade.
What Preller actually said about the potential of those 3 being looked at as starters was, “Everybody understands when you have starting pitching, not just at the top of the market — we get hit all the time on guys on our staff that people think could start, people think are going to take a step up as a starter”
Morejon has threw 70 innings in 2024 between San Diego and rehab and just 180 innings over the past 5 seasons. We won’t see him as a starter at the beginning of 2025
Kolek threw even fewer innings in 2024 but he was a starter in AA a few years back.
Hoeing could be a possibility as a swingman.
I fully expect that the Padres will subtract and add, Preller does every offseason, just not in the way you seem to.