Orioles Sign Tomoyuki Sugano

The Orioles signed longtime NPB star Tomoyuki Sugano to a one-year contract on Monday evening. Sugano, a client of VC Sports Group, is reportedly guaranteed $13MM. Baltimore had an opening on the 40-man roster, so no additional move was necessary.

Sugano makes the jump to Major League Baseball for the first time in what’ll be his age-35 season. He’s one of Japan’s most accomplished pitchers. The 6’1″ right-hander spent 12 years with the Yomiuri Giants in his home country. He posted a 2.43 earned run average in more than 1800 innings at the NPB level.

Major league scouts have followed Sugano for some time. He first appeared on many fans’ radars when the Yomiuri Giants made him available via the posting system during the 2020-21 offseason. Sugano was coming off a 1.97 ERA showing in his age-30 season. While he certainly attracted attention from big league clubs, he didn’t find a deal that compelled him to leave Japan. Instead, Sugano returned to the Giants on a four-year deal that paid him $40MM.

That contract allowed Sugano to opt out after each season, potentially clearing a path for him to make the move to MLB. He was evidently happy with his longtime club and decided not to take any of the early outs. Once the four-year term concluded, his camp made clear he intended to sign with an MLB team this offseason. Sugano had surpassed the nine years of NPB service time necessary to qualify for international free agency. Yomiuri will not receive any compensation for his departure, nor will the deal cost the Orioles anything other than the player’s salary.

Despite his age, Sugano is coming off one of his strongest seasons. He turned in a 1.67 ERA across 156 2/3 innings spanning 24 starts. It’s the second-lowest ERA of his career and earned him the NPB’s Central League MVP award for the third time. That’s not to say he’s still at his absolute peak form, however. Sugano only threw 77 2/3 innings during the 2023 season, reportedly on account of an elbow injury. His swing-and-miss rates have also dropped significantly compared to earlier years. Sugano struck out 18.3% of batters faced this year — well off the 24-26% range he’d posted in his late 20s.

Sugano’s NPB strikeout rate was about four percentage points lower than the 22% MLB average for starting pitchers. Many NPB hitters adopt a more contact-oriented approach than is common in the big leagues, so perhaps he’ll miss a few more bats in the majors. Sugano doesn’t have the same upside he would’ve brought a few seasons ago, though. Baseball America’s scouting report notes that his fastball velocity has dipped into the 92-93 MPH range after sitting somewhere between 94-96 MPH earlier in his career.

While the pure stuff has dropped as he’s aged and battled injury, Sugano has thrived thanks to his feel for pitching. That’s most evident in his excellent command. Sugano only walked 16 hitters all season, a microscopic 2.6% rate that’s lower than what any MLB starter managed this year (minimum 100 innings). That should rise slightly as he faces more patient hitters, but it’s fair to project Sugano for plus or better command.

Baseball America writes that Sugano indeed profiles as a control-oriented fourth or fifth starter. The outlet credits him with a five-pitch mix headlined by an above-average slider and splitter. Fans are encouraged to read BA’s full column, which also includes updated scouting reports on other prominent NPB and KBO players who are available to MLB teams (i.e. Roki Sasaki, Shinnosuke Ogasawara, Hyeseong Kim and Koyo Aoyagi).

The contract aligns with MLBTR’s prediction of one year and $12MM. It values Sugano as a capable back-end starter. Alex Cobb signed for $15MM with the Tigers last week. Late-career innings eaters Lance Lynn ($11MM) and Kyle Gibson ($13MM) got similar one-year deals with the Cardinals last offseason.

Sugano is a needed rotation upgrade for GM Mike Elias and his front office. The O’s should continue searching for higher-upside arms in the coming weeks. Sugano slots behind Zach Eflin and Grayson Rodriguez in the projected rotation. Dean Kremer, Trevor Rogers, Albert Suarez and youngsters Cade Povich and Chayce McDermott are options for the final two spots. The rotation remains Baltimore’s biggest question mark.

Sugano is the third highest-paid player on the roster, narrowly trailing Eflin ($18MM) and newly signed outfielder Tyler O’Neill ($16.5MM). Their player payroll is up to $134MM, as calculated by RosterResource. It’s not clear how far they’re willing to push spending in the first offseason under the David Rubenstein ownership group.

ESPN’s Jeff Passan first reported the salary. Image courtesy of USA Today Sports.