Infielder Luis Arráez is one year away from being a free agent. He has expressed an openness to signing an extension but it doesn’t appear anything is close on that front. Per a report from Dennis Lin of The Athletic, the Friars have “not yet engaged in serious extension talks” with Arráez.
The fact that extension talks have not happened yet doesn’t necessarily mean that they can’t happen at a later date. Traditionally, clubs like to use this part of the calendar to focus on player acquisitions, leaving extensions for closer to spring training. However, Lin reports that there is some debate within the San Diego front office about how valuable Arráez is, which perhaps reduces the odds of extension talks gaining steam down the road.
On top of that, there are the ongoing budgetary questions to consider. The Padres were among the most aggressive clubs in baseball while owner Peter Seidler was still alive, but it was clearly unsustainable. In September of 2023, alongside news of Seidler’s deteriorating health, it was reported that their debt service ratio was not in compliance with MLB regulations.
The club had given out nine-figure contracts to players like Manny Machado, Xander Bogaerts, Fernando Tatis Jr., Joe Musgrove and Yu Darvish, alongside some other notable deals as they looked to remake the club’s image as a small-market also-ran. As they were sending that money out the door, less was coming in, as their TV deal with Diamond Sports Group collapsed.
Going into 2024, the club needed to cut some payroll but had limited options for doing so. All of those aforementioned deals were quite large and therefore hard to trade. Even if the Padres found interest, all of those players have full no-trade clauses on their deals. All of these factors, as well as a lack of rotation depth, seemed to lead to the Juan Soto trade. That allowed the Friars to make a big cut from their budget and duck under the competitive balance tax while also bringing back arms like Michael King and Drew Thorpe, with Thorpe later flipped as part of the Dylan Cease trade.
Going into 2024, the budget could again be an issue. Though they haven’t yet made any notable moves this offseason, RosterResource projects them for a $210MM payroll next year, more than $40MM beyond last year. They are also projected for a $244MM CBT number, just above next year’s $241MM base threshold.
It’s unknown what sort of exact payroll parameters the club has for 2025, but Lin suggests the budget is tight again. He reports that the Friars were interested in catchers Kyle Higashioka and Danny Jansen but came up short despite those backstops getting relatively modest deals. Higashioka got $13.5MM over two years from the Rangers while Jansen settled for just one year and $8.5MM from the Rays. That doesn’t suggest the club is working with a lot of financial firepower this winter.
Arráez would be a speculative candidate for a move to open some spending capacity since he’s effectively in the same position that Soto was last year. He’s going into his final year of club control and set to make a notable salary while several other players are locked into long-term deals.
Cease and King are also just one year from the open market, but trading either of them seems less likely. The San Diego rotation has a strong front three consisting of those two and Darvish but things get flimsy after that. Musgrove is likely to miss the entire 2025 campaign after undergoing Tommy John surgery in October. Martín Pérez just became a free agent. Matt Waldron and Randy Vásquez are options for the back end but neither is fully established at this point. If anything, the club needs to add to that group, so subtracting King or Cease wouldn’t make much sense.
Arráez, on the other hand, could make more sense as a trade candidate. He is one of the game’s best contact hitters, having won three straight batting titles, but doesn’t walk much or provide much power. He has only drawn a walk in 6.9% of his career plate appearances but has only been struck out 6.8% of the time, while never hitting more than ten homers in a season. His .323/.372/.418 batting line translates to a 120 wRC+.
That’s a unique approach in today’s game and Arráez is clearly the best at the things he does well, but it’s also a limited profile. He’s doesn’t steal a ton of bases and isn’t considered a strong defender at either second or first base, his two primary positions.
MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz projects Arráez for a salary of $14.6MM next year. That’s far less than what Soto was slated to make in 2024 but still a lot of money for a useful but limited player. If the Padres were to trade Arráez, perhaps for some pitching, they could have an infield consisting of Machado at third, Bogaerts at short and Jake Cronenworth at second, perhaps using some of the savings to go after a cheaper option at first. Lin writes that the club would prefer to have Bogaerts at second like the start of the 2024 season but they would need a solution at shortstop with Ha-Seong Kim now a free agent and likely to miss the start of the 2025 season due to shoulder surgery.
This is largely speculative but Lin’s report that the front office isn’t convinced of Arráez’s value could perhaps nudge them more towards a trade than an extension. President of baseball operations A.J. Preller has generally been unafraid to make bold strikes even when painful, as last year’s Soto trade showed, so the Friars could be a club to watch in the coming weeks if they shake up the trade market.
One player unlikely to be on the block is reliever Robert Suarez. Per Lin, the Padres are inclined to keep him as his contract has an opt-out after 2025, which complicates trade talks. The righty is set to make $10MM in 2025 and then $8MM in each of the next two years, though he can walk away from those final two seasons. He just posted a solid 2.77 ERA in 2024 and clubs would surely have interest in that kind of performance, but the contract provides a lot of downside. If Suarez suffered any kind of notable injury, he would surely decline his opt-out chance and linger on the books for those two years. Given that downside, a club may be reluctant to give up any kind of notable return or take on the entirety of the contract.
Lin also adds that the Padres are “hopeful, if not confident, about a potential reunion” with outfielder Jurickson Profar. After a dreadful 2023 season, Profar signed with San Diego for a guarantee of just $1MM in 2024. That turned out to be a massive bargain for the club, as Profar went on to hit .280/.380/.459 for a wRC+ of 139.
Profar and Preller have a long relationship, as he was working for the Rangers way back when Profar was signed as an international amateur. Since coming to the Padres, Preller has signed Profar multiple times. But on the heels of a career year, Profar might be looking to cash in. MLBTR predicted he could land a three-year deal with a $45MM guarantee. If Profar is looking for anything in that ballpark, it could be tough to get it from San Diego, given the aforementioned payroll restrictions.
Only player in major lg history
3 straight batting titles with 3 different tms
And nobody wants him
Poor guy
When you are a singles hitting DH who is bad on the basepaths and doesn’t take walks, your path to providing value is incredibly limited.
Succinctly put.
.323 career avg
.372 career OBP
And more walks than K’s
he’s always setting the table for the players behind him. Thats what a leadoff hitter is supposed to do. No one is claiming he’s juan soto. But the fact that team after team gives up on him is awful for the game. He has an old school style
More BB’s than K’s, but still BB’s way below average. If he’s at .370 OBP, he has decent value. However, if it’s under .350 (like last year) he’s more of a 1 WAR player.
He’s clearly not a bad player. However, he is a true 1 tool player which caps his value and gives him very little margin for error.
That’s another thing. He has to hit like .310+ every year to provide value with the bat. If he hits .290, he’s closer to a liability than he is an asset.
He’s very likely to age poorly with the bat, too. He’s still in his prime, but there’s no way I commit big money to him for more than a couple years, frankly. If he’s looking for 5 years or more, that’s an easy, EASY no.
He’s also had 30 or more doubles in three straight years, so he’s not just a “single hitter”. And he’s also not a dh. Last year he was a first baseman and second baseman. In previous season, he played third base, shortstop, and outfield. In 2023 he led the majors in fielding percentage and double plays turned as a second baseman. He doesn’t have “limited value“. You just have a limited point of view.
Coltrane, he is very bad at all of those positions
I like Arraez, thought that was great trade for the Padres, was exactly what they needed. There aren’t too many players who can fill his shoes in that leadoff spot.
Had -7 outs above average at second base and -6 at first base last year, and he played less than 600 innings at both positions. He hasn’t played any other position than 2B, 1B, and DH since 2022, and hasn’t played any other position for more than 100 innings since 2021. He hits more than singles, but he has the most singles in the league the last three seasons by nearly 100 more than the player with the next most, and doesn’t even rank top 25 in doubles over the same span.
It’s 2024 – we should be past the point of debating fielding percentage.
He can’t make errors on balls he doesn’t get to.
Agreed. It is a worthless statistic.
The opposite. He isn’t a power hitter, so his hit tool should age extremely well.
Kaplers. Wrong. He is a 4 DRS at 2B over the last 3 seasons.
MLB, OAA only measures range. Arraez has limited range, but he has sure hands and an accurate throwing arm. He has just 4 throwing errors and 9 overall in 3 seasons at 2B. What he gets to he catches and gets the out.
That is why you need to look at DRS instead of OAA. DRS measure the entire play, not just if the player got to the ball.
Thankful for Preller but the new ownership group, whoever they are, has left alot to be desired.
Unless the books are open to the fans the whole Seidler passing ‘now ownership can’t spend’ is pure speculation.
Lack of a TV deal affecting spending again pure speculation.
No one knows who the ownership group is comprised of, their assets, the liabilities etc.
The loan was leaked with little information following it to contribute to the narrative.
Open the books and we then the fans will have an idea.
You spend money on the team and fans come to the ballpark.
You don’t spend money on the team and fans don’t come to the ballpark.
I would rather they sign Profar than extend Arraez. But I doubt they do either. They probably should just let Arraez play out his contract this year (not a bad AAV) and then let him walk to FA in 2026
Brew’88
Profar is one scary proposition how he has yet to string together back to back average offensive seasons:
’18: 107 OPS+
’19: 91
’20: 114
’21: 83
’22: 109
’23: 81
’24: 134
He was so good last year and a total beast at Petco but those numbers scare the crap out of me figuring a 3 or 4 year deal is what he’s looking for.
I’d take Arraez over the next 3 to 4 years over Profar. I would imagine he’s not signing an extension of that length so parting with Profar now (unless teams all pass with his track record and he falls in their laps cheaply) and Arraez after 2025 might be the best choice.
I expect Arraez to be better in 2025 with his wrist healthier and put up a 115-125 OPS+. He does that he’ll probably be QO worthy being a 28ish year old FA. Getting him for 2/15m for a meh prospect package was a nice get especially if they also end up with a comp pick in 2026.
@Papi. Good points. I want both guys! What I didn’t say well is that I don’t think they should extend Arraez, unless they have unlimited $, which they don’t seem to have. I also don’t want them to trade him this offseason. As for Profar, it’s looking very unlikely he will be affordable, so he’s likely gone to another team for something like 3/40. Arraez should put up great numbers this year to set up his FA 2026
no one is walking a singles hitter, but given the option of a 350 OBP buoyed by singles or walks I’ll take the singles 8 days a week,
His value is that he increases the value of everything that comes before or follows his single.
.
4.2 WAR/4.9 WAR/1.0 WAR.
He has value. He was injured since May this past season.
@Cam
When you’re career OBP is .372 then who cares how it came? A hit can advance a runner more than a walk.
I can only imagine
1st-Jazz with 25/40 hr/SB ability
2nd-Arraez with a .300+/.350 OBP
3rd-Judge hitting 45-50 hrs.
Kinicks, when your OBP is top 10 in baseball like Arraez’s has been the last 3 seasons, the fact that it came from 97% hits instead of excess walks makes it more valuable. A single is worth 21% more in terms of creating a run.
@web
agreed. that’s my point. he’s fine it for years, so it’s not flukish. and he has excellent zone awareness. I wouldn’t force him to take more walks but hiring behind Jazz, in my scenario, he might naturally become more willing to take a walk. he does that naturally.
Most overrated player currently in baseball.
Far from true. I’d say most underrated.
@Seam
.323 BA and .372 OBP with 3 batting titles.
Since roughly 1973, 13 guys have won 3 or more batting titles. All are either in the HOF or headed to it (Altuve). In the last 75 years only 3 hitters, Gwynn (.338), Carew (.331) and Boggs (.328), have a batting average higher than Arreaz. All elite, all low walk guys none known for being true power hitters although they have hit about 100-135 in their careers. He’s headed into the last year of arbitration and he’s never earned more than $10 mil. He is criminally underpaid and very under appreciated. Now in the world of advanced metrics his value doesn’t look very good with a career 11 WAR but I’d happily offer him 5/$100 mil and wouldn’t regret it at all. Twice his largest arbitration earning.
I generally agree, though you’re a bit off on somer numbers…75 years ago was 1949, Ted Williams retired after the 60 season I think and he hit .344, Stan Musial retired a couple of seasons after that and he hit .331. Dimaggio retired in 51 and he hit ,325 and that was 73 years ago. Of course, we’d have to see what Arraez ends up when he hangs them up, but I get your point and I think people are underestimating the value of a guy who can hit for a high average and rarely strikes out. And the notion that Arraez is a defensive liability is nonsense, he is a decent fielder who at the very least does not hurt you defensively. If I got runners in scoring position I want a guy at the plate that can hit for average and rarely strikes out,
Good. Best to DFA him. He’s cooked!
1 WAR in 600+ ABs.
WAR is a useless stat
Only a fool would say that.
Only a 12 year old would. I can give you a multitude of examples why WAR is total and complete BS.
Please feel free to do so. Personally, I question the value of defensive stats that don’t encompass at least 2 years, but otherwise WAR is a useful tool.
GROUP A
Zach Neto 5.1
Daulton Varsho 5.1
Masyn Winn 4.9
GROUP B
Bryce Harper 4.8
Freddie Freeman 4.7
Alex Bregman 4.1
This is just a quick 2 second look since I’m in between meetings. Nobody on earth would swap anyone from group B straight up for someone in group A.
Gets more ridiculous looking at pitchers.
I don’t think WAR is total bs. It has it’s uses in larger sample sizes, but the fact that there are different versions and one is better for position players (FanGraphs’ version) and the other is better for pitchers (Baseball Reference’s version) makes it confusing. Plus the positional adjustments add another layer. Marcus Semien had a 99 wRC+ and +4.2 fWAR at second base while Manny Machado had a 122 wRC+ and +3.6 fWAR at 3B/DH.
Not sure what your point is. Those all seem about right. What you’re seeing is the value of defense and baserunning, which is not immediately obvious but important just the same. Neto and Winn are shortstops, where wins above replacement is higher because they’re harder to replace (i.e. “replacement” is lower). Varsho is one of the best defenders in baseball.
Harper and Freeman are great hitters but play a very low value position (“replacement” is much higher). Bregman had a bad year.
Get it now?
My point is simple. There is no GM on the planet trading Bryce Harper straight up for freakin Daulton Varsho…..so people just looking at WAR as the end all of a players value are idiots.
Get it now?
Your mom
WAR, what’s it good for? It’s got one friend, that’s the undertaker. – BM.
@YanksPhan42 Arraez is one of the best players in the game. WAR shows that guys like Myles Straw are better than Arraez. Let that sink in. One of the worst stats out there in my opinion for evaluating players
Straw is one of the best CFers in the game (defensively) and Arraez had a bad year. So yeah, that seems right.
@Seamaholic winning the batting tittle is a bad year? I extremely disagree
War…bah!
GROUP A
Zach Neto 5.1
Daulton Varsho 5.1
Masyn Winn 4.9
GROUP B
Bryce Harper 4.8
Freddie Freeman 4.7
Alex Bregman 4.1
You think anyone from Group A is more valuable than Group B? If so, you’re an idiot
It’s even more asinine with pitchers.
See above. Those are about right for me. Hitting is not the only value in the game.
You’re comparing three players who play up the middle premium defensive positions to three corner bats. Apples to oranges. War is best considered in context for this very reason.
Sometimes I think the positional adjustments can be too harsh or generous. Like Trevor Larnach having a 121 wRC+ and +2 outs above average in the outfield corners in 400 plate appearances, but only a +1.5 fWAR. Then David Hamilton having +1.7 fWAR in 317 plate appearances with a 92 wRC+ but +3 OAA at 2B with -3 OAA at SS. Most teams are probably going to see the average defensive corner outfielder with well above average hitting as more valuable than the average defensive middle infielder with below average hitting.
Hat – I think we agree. A useful tool for comparing same position but not a good mix and match tool. The example given by yanks illustrates my point. Which of those 6 do you build your team around.
4.2 and 4.9 WAR the 2 seasons before that. He was injured since May of 2024, shortly after the trade. A torn tendon in the thumb makes it hard to hit at the same level.
10.1 WAR in 1892 PA.
Mariners could use him.
I thought this too.
Plus, Ichiro is his biggest fan.
RIP Mr. Seider. Pods now run by private investors who won’t spend 8 figures to acquire or retain a player. They belive they can stem decline in attendance by increasing bobblehead giveaways and not increasing beer prices. They may be right.
this private equity group will ruin the Padres.
The ‘ ballpark Experience’ will only carry a team so far.
Look.at PNC park.in Pittsburgh or Oracle with the Giants. Those are two of the best parks in baseball with an amazing ballpark experience and they are routinely half full.
This will be a return to the 2011 – 2014 days.
Empty ballpark, disinterested to apathetic fan base, and the brand Peter worked so hard to build will crumble.
Hey the PE group can claim losses so that’s a plus.
Tow – you are starting a little early this year? Last year the doom and gloom/when is Preller going to sign someone/ the sky is falling seemed to start closer to the season.
Exactly how many games have you attended at Petco Park? There is a waiting list for season tickets, there’s no NFL, NHL, NBA teams and, outside of SDSU basketball, it’s the only game in town for one of the largest cities in the country.
The padres are still owned and operated by his family.
Absolutely true. Bobbleheads bring in the fans. $1 beers would really pack the house but that’s a liability. That would be sweet though. $1 peanuts / $1 beers. I don’t eat the hot dogs but $1 hot dogs for those who do. And $1 popcorn. And $1 sodas and sparkling water.
Play ball!
Padres can certainly deal Cease and bring back some cheap cost controlled pitching. or fill other needs and spend money on pitching.
Not ideal, but if the club is certainly worried about immediate and long term outlooks financially dealing Cease and Suarez while bringing back cheap prospects at or near mlb readiness approaches the offseason from a retooling approach.
Maybe you can pry Heston Kjerstad away from the Orioles in a swap similar to how Orioles traded DL Hall and Joey Ortiz for Corbin Burnes. Say Kjerstad and Brandon Young for Cease.
I do wonder if the Orioles would consider moving Mayo and/or Basallo to corner OF.
The Padres got into this situation by overpaying. They needed to at first to attract talent but the Bogie deal was just nuts. Who were they bidding against? I loved him in Boston and would take him back in a heart beat as I still think he’d produce in Fenway. The problem is he’s not a top level shortstop and his contract is so underwater that they would have to give up so much in additional talent to get anyone to take him that it wouldn’t make sense on their end.
dewey, how does it feel to be so wrong? Bogaerts produced 5.7 WAR per season in his last 3 seasons as a Shortstop in Boston. No one, including you, thought he would produce just 5.6 WAR in his first 2 seasons in San Diego. That is the reason that Boston bid over $30 million per season for him, a much higher AAV than the Padres.
Padres go for it every year. I can’t see them trading Cease. They need to sign or trade for a starter or both, resign Profar and Arraez.
Can’t see any other avenue for them. Too much payroll to tear it down and rebuild. Have to keep it rolling until Machado / Tatis / Bogaerts are up and that isn’t until 2031. The Musgrove injury is a real pothole.
Agree. When you’re good; no better time then the present to go for it. Keep the band together. If the wheels fall off the cart in 2025, move pieces at the trade deadline.
They were going for it last year though when they traded Soto to get multiple pieces for less money and that didn’t stop them. I could see them doing something similar this year with Cease as well.
Cease is projected for $13.7M, if they traded him for young guys who are MLB ready, but will make the minimum as pre-arb players, they can plug multiple roster holes (LF, C, or backend SP) and save like $12-13M in the transaction that they can then re-allocate towards signing someone else.
Harrison Butker’s Speech’s proposed trade is basically giving them a top prospect they could immediately start in LF and a guy who is MLB ready and projects as a ~4 or 5 SP, both of who are cost controlled for like 6 more years. I’m not sure exactly what they could get for Cease, but if they can turn him into like 2 cheap but decent MLB contributors and free up money needed to sign someone else to fill another hole, its definitely worth considering.
Why would you trade Cease after giving up all that to get him? Him getting more expensive in arb and not signing some lowball extension were both foreseeable a year ago when they traded for him so don’t troll and say “Because he’s projected to make $13.7m and they need to shed payroll.”
Why would you trade Cease after giving up all that to get him?
Why would you trade Soto after giving up all that to get him? Him getting more expensive in arb and not signing some lowball extension were both foreseeable a year ago when they traded for him
I get why they traded Soto the 2nd time, don’t get why they traded for him the first time. But trading Cease to lower the payroll seems strange when they’re still about $30 under CBT limit, unless AJ has been told to start a fire sale, and I see no indication of that.
How did the Padres’ offense do in the NLDS without Soto?
Padres don’t have a 4th starter, a 5th starter or a 6th starter to step in when one of the top 5 inevitably gets injured and refuse to sign that dude who just won the ERA title in Mexico. I get that Dylan Cease’s postseason was a bummer but he’s a huge part of why they made it even that far in 2024. The prospects they would get for him are not any more guaranteed to pan out than Samuel Zavala and Jairo Iriarte.
Games 1-3 fine. Games 4-5 meh
They didn’t score a single run in innings 4 through 9 of game 3.
Still won 6-5. Scored enough to win and did.
They also scored enough to win game 1 but lost 7-5
Offense wasn’t the issue in games 1 and 3 as to why those games were so close. Offense did their job in both games 1 and 3. Pitching gave away game 1 and almost gave away game 3.
Offense was absolutely l the issue in the NLDS for the Padres. But I know you just like to listen to yourself argue Harrison and I’m not falling for it. Cya.
Lol what a coward rally goose is.
Padres score 5 runs game 1, 10 runs game 2, and 6 runs game 3 which is fine offense and somehow its offense fault they lost the series when pitching gave away game 1 and almost game 3. You win game 1 2 and 3 game 4 and 5 never happen.
It’s a fair idea, and one that could work out if and only if you feel like the pitching prospects can pitch up to replacement level of a Dylan Cease, hard to do, he is one of the better starters in baseball.
Hard to replace a Juan Soto too, but if you are only looking at OBP and runs, Arraez is an adequate replacement. And, the Padres had a bunch of offense to fall back on. Merrill was hitting, Profar was hitting. Machado, Tatis.
The rotation is shaky. Dharvish is getting old. Four and five are currently open situations if you ask me. If you miss on that trade, your rotation is in shambles. Unlikely anybody from the farm steps in, doesn’t look to be anybody ready.
Could trade Mayfield, Bateman and Candiotti potentially for a MLB ready starter, packaged with one or both Salas and DeVries. Why not, draft again in 2025. Rule 5 draft in a couple days. Got the international player pools. Trade the prospects.
Tampa probably send over Drew Rasmussen or Zach Littel, both decent options that can likely be had fairly.
Padres’ pitching was elite in the 2024 postseason except for Dylan “Big Game James” Cease.
A lot of good pitching prospects around the league. Signing Bauer for $1M is an option. How about prying away Bigge from the Rays. Trade for Rasmussen and Bigge. Sign Urquidy and Bauer.
Bauer’s not gonna cost $1m lol.
Bauer has been quoted saying he would pitch for the league minimum. Maybe he retracts that notion.
I used to root for him, thought his ideas about pitching every four days and signing one year deals was an exciting proposition.
If I were the Padres I’d sign him to a performance laden deal, one year deal, $1M, kickers for K’s, wins, all star game, playoff wins, Cy Young voting. Limits in the first season to $5M tops, and I’d run him out there every fourth day.
Id stack my bullpen like the Rays. Have a bullpen game once a week. Four man rotation with two swingmen in the bullpen.
Only the one arm would be throwing every fourth day. The bullpen day would normalize your other three starters on what would essentially be a similar workload to that of five man rotation.
Nah. 100 years. League minimum every year. No incentives or bonuses. And we can opt out after every year. If he thinks he can do better than then tell him he should go ahead and make the deal.
Cnichols, what guys specifically that are 3 ERA starters and pre-arb?
In 100 years he’ll be 130 yrs old. With a contract like that he should be able to reel in the 300 wins and 3000 K’s.
I thought he could of gotten to both before he was suspended, and the shortened COVID season.
I was really high on Bauer being the guy who would emerge as one of the leagues best and thought the four day rotation was a good idea. But that’s life in this cold world. Dreams crushed. You move on I guess. I don’t have much else to say about it. He’ll always have the Cy Young from the COVID season where they played in empty ballparks, and he has the Mexican League MVP and strike out record, to me that is a big accomplishment.
I’d go back to Nippon and light up more Japs if I couldn’t get a deal stateside.
HBM, The extension offer wasn’t low or Boras would not have said multiple times now that if Seidler had lived that Soto would have signed an extension.
Padres are over the CBT threshold as of today.
Bauer will never pitch in MLB again. too many issues with bad PR and without the sticky stuff he is just not a good pitcher. Add to that his age and he is a hard no for any team.
@bwmiller79 That’s why I said we can opt out after every season. The moment he stops being effective is the moment we stop paying him.
@websoulsurfer You don’t have to like the dude but he’s pretty easily #4 in the Padres’ rotation. 3 if they actually do trade Cease. Other pitchers who are as good as Bauer would either cost $ or prospects.
That’s BS, he is probably one of the more cerebral pitchers in all of baseball. He is a pitcher not a thrower. He reminds me of Greg Maddux in that way. He don’t need the tack. You can say what you want about the Mexican League and Nippon, two very good seasons.
Pretty ludicrous to say the dude isn’t a MLB caliber starter anymore. You can hate on him for the off field stuff all you want but the talent is there.
Bauer would be the Ace of the Padres, I’d put Bauer right there with Dylan Cease and Michael King, and Id say that it’s likely that he will have a better success in the long run than both of them.
@web. According to Cassavell’s reporting 2 days ago, they currently have $210M in commitments for 2025, including arb eligible guys. What assumptions are you making that takes them over the CBT?
Fan graphs projections have them at 244
fangraphs.com/roster-resource/payroll/padres
Nevermind Web. Did my homework and now see that I was confusing payroll ($210M projected) with CBT calculation ($243M projected). So yes they are currently slightly over CBT
@web I never said you could get a 3ERA pre-arb SP back for Cease. The framework I was mentioning was a young starting position player and a “backend SP”.
3ERA pre-arb guys would be like Grayson Rodriguez, Skenes, Woo… they all have more value than Cease due to their years of cheap control. If you’re going to get a cost controlled SP for him, it’s not going to be a guy who is that high end.
Said differently, the idea is instead of having 1 player who is like a 4-5 WAR guy for next year, you’d trade him for multiple guys who are like ~1-2 WAR players that you can control for the next 5+ years.
Cnichols, that has proven to be a fantastic trade. It brought the Padres King, Vasquez, Brito, Higashioka, and gave them the key piece that the White Sox were asking for to acquire Cease.
If the Padres can get that type of return, not as much but a similar type of return. that makes the team better immediately, Preller should do it.
If not, they keep the 5th best starting pitcher in MLB at the top of their rotation.
Since the Padres have no way of getting under the CBT even if they do trade Cease, $13.7 million is not enough of a reason to trade him. Only getting better is.
I agree with everything you said except I do think they can get under the CBT if they trade both Cease and Arraez, which will sting. They’re only slightly over it now. If they trade them for pre-arb players making the league minimum that will cut like ~$25M off the CBT number so they could make small additions after that and stay under.
I agree with you that they likely wont sign Profar at that rate. I’m bracing myself for them being cheap this offseason, but hope they can at least go about it in a smart way
But why on EARTH would another team trade the Padres a package that will make the Padres better immediately (which means making their own team worse immediately) and comes with several years of control for just one year of Cease?
Still no one has answered the question of why they traded for Cease and Arraez at all if being over the luxury tax threshold is such a problem. Again, their salaries going up due to arbitration was 100% foreseeable. And trading for a player so that you can attempt to extend him with no guarantee of success is, well… stupid for lack of a better word.
@ Rally goose I think they were just focusing on trying to win in 2023 and figured they would deal with the financial problems it created for 2024 later. Now the rent is coming due and they have to maneuver because they have overcommitted.
When they acquired Arraez last year they had the Marlins pay his salary down to league minimum. Cease was making $8M last year. Now these two are projected to make a combined ~$28M this year so the salary commitment for them is basically 3.5x what it was last year. This was admittedly totally foreseeable, but it’s where they are now.
@LFG it doesn’t necessarily make their own team worse immediately. Did the Soto trade make NYY worse immediately?
The original trade proposal on this thread is a great example. Kjerstad was a top 30 prospect in all of baseball last year and did alright in a taste of the bigs until he got hurt but he doesn’t have a spot in BAL’s OF. He could start in LF immediately for SD. Trading him and a young pitcher who is not going to be in their rotation doesn’t really make them any worse. Not saying that trade is going to happen but that’s the type of win-win move you’d have to do to make this work.
That’s exactly it. It was foreseeable. If them making 3.5x as much next year was such a problem why trade for them? Their trade values weren’t going to suddenly be higher when they’re a year closer to FA and 3.5x as expensive and the other GM’s don’t assume a player will sign an extension just because they traded for him like Preller does.
The Soto trade made SD worse immediately. Soto and Grisham produced 2 whole WAR more than King et al and did that while costing 3 fewer roster spots. And then the Padres’ offense tanked in the NLDS against the Dodgers. That trade was 100% a “win later trade.”
Padres won’t re-sign Profar for the $15 million AAV he is asking for.
Most underrated player in baseball when everyone is only measuring value in WAR. Disturbing to see so many fail to see why this guy is even more valuable now than ever with too many “3 true outcome” players in lineups.
I’d gladly take him on the Yankees. Him leading off and playing 1B with Judge behind him = a TON of 2 run+ dongs.
Arraez and Robert Suárez to the Yankees
Mariners need to trade for him and extend him. 7/80million. They need contact hitters and infield help
And what are you suggesting the Mariners trade for him?
Arraez is overrated by those who only look at his batting average, and underrated by those who only look at WAR. Imo, he’s just an okay player. I’d take Arraez over a lot of players, but I’d also take a lot of players over Arraez. The truth is he’s an okay hitter who doesn’t really have a position he’s good at.
He still has a 123 WRC+ the last three years, even w the “down” year last year where he hurt his shoulder. Of course idk if that will linger into 2025. I would use him as a DH for anyone concerned his 1b defense actually hurts the team to any noticeable degree.
For those of us that look at both he is underrated.
10.1 WAR over the last 3 seasons and 3 batting titles, .328 BA, .371 OBP, and 120 OPS+.
A 3.3 WAR average is worth >$30 million.
He has a 4 DRS at 2B over the past 3 seasons. That is above average.
The problem for him with the Padres is that they had 2 players with greater range at 2B than Arraez in Bogaerts and Cronenworth. He is still an average 2B. They are just better.
This ^^^
Account #2 agrees with account #1!
Arraez for McNiel and Ronny Mauricio, who says no?
I would love it but prob both sides say no bc i think mets still very high on mauricio and SD wouldnt want mcneils salary
I assume the Mets are paying all of $33.5 million owed to McNeil for next 2 seasons? McNeil hit 31 and his performance fell off a cliff.
Padres. McNeil who will be 33 years old in 2025 is owed $33.5 million over next 2 season, is in serious decline, and has less WAR over the last 4 seasons than the 27-year-old Arraez. Mauricio missed nearly all of last season to injury and no one knows how he will respond.
Wait until towards the end of spring training and Mauricio may have more value in trade.
Mariners: Garver + Hancock
Padres: Arraez
Padres IF
1B: Garver
2B: Cronenworth
3B: Machado
SS: Bogy.
Save a couple million, fill the hole in the IF, and add an arm for the rotation.
If you could catch the Padres drunk enough to take Garver and Hancock the Mariners would absolutely make that deal
Garver is going into his age 34 season so likely to regress and his 2024 was awful.
Not that my insight is relevant, but my train of thought was that both the Padres and Mariners seem to be on budgets. Arraez and Garvers $ nearly cancels out. Taking back that contract would get SD more out of the deal, since Arraez is the headliner of the hypothetical trade.
Padres have not said they are on a budget. They have said the opposite, that while they would like to stay closer to 2024 than 2024, they have no set number in mind. They want to win. Or as they put it, have a parade in San Diego.
Please view the latest article on a possible Dylan Cease trade. It references their desire to cut some payroll. Now Arraez and Cease are being shopped. What does that tell you
CGG, I would much rather listen to what the GM said.
Especially when Acee is the one writing the article or Lin, who is still trying to say the Padres borrowed money for payroll when he knows that they borrowed it after the season was over, borrowed it from Ascendant Capital, and did it to complete the purchase of land from the city of San Diego for a $1.5 billion Tailgate Park project. cisterra.com/tailgatepark Note who the principals are on that project.
Also realize that the Padres mace a $24 million investment in upgrading Gallagher Square at the ballpark itself that offseason.
The horse’s mouth is always a better source than the south end of a northbound donkey.
Preller said teams have approached him about Cease and he listened. Neither player is being shopped.
Earlier Preller, Shildt, and Kutsenda Flat out. said Arraez would not be traded.
You obviously missed what Jon Paul Morosi said that Preller asked the Red Sox for when they called. Abreu, Mayer, Fitts, and Gonzalez. Does that sound like he is being shopped? That is more than it cost to get him from the White Sox.
Do I think it’s possible that Cease will be traded? Having watched Preller closely for a decade I believe he would trade his mother if he thought it would make the team better right now. Only something like what he asked from the Red Sox would make the team better this season than having a top 5 starting pitcher fronting the rotation.
Message to Padres: You don’t have to extend everyone until they’re 40.
Now you tell us, sheesh!!
No one is talking about signing Arraez to a 13-year deal.
Might be a good place for him on the Yankees since they cut Rizzo and Verdugo was not a lights out leadoff.
I get he won the batting title last year but was a rather empty average. Years before he was a 4 win player, and had better slg, obp, and wrc +. And he’s bad defensively. They’d be looking to trade him before extending him.
holeinthehead, he tore a tendon in his thumb in mid-May and continued to play. Do you think that will affect him at the plate next season? Neither do I. He has a 4 DRS at 2B the last 3 seasons. He is better than average defensively at 2B. The Padres have said unequivocally that they will not be trading him. You got everything wrong. Want to try again?
@web
He’s a FA next year and the article says they affect close to an extension. Why wouldn’t they consider trading him? they just did the and thing with an iconic player in Soto.
Because Soto could bring back 5 players and Arraez won’t bring back much right now.
Arraez is extremely valuable when healthy as we saw in 2022 and 2023. If he plays to that level in 2025 the Padres place QO on him knowing he can sign a long term deal coming off 3 of 4 season being over 4.0 WAR and they get about as much as they would selling low and trading him now. Arraez is going nowhere in the offseason.
@KnicksFanCavsFan “Why wouldn’t they consider trading him?”
For the same reasons they traded for him in the first place. They didn’t just find out he was going to be a FA after 2025. That was already known. It was also known he wasn’t going to sign some kind of lowball extension. If that was such a problem why did Preller trade for him at all?
Knicks, Arraez is in Venezuela right now, has been since late October, and both he and Preller said after the playoffs ended that they would start talking about an extension when he got to Spring Training. Preller also said that Arraez would not be traded. Fans like me said that Soto would not be traded. Preller never did.
Soto was a guy that was able to bring in multiple major league players in trade. Arraez is not in the same stratosphere. He is a very good player, but not close to the level of Soto.
He tore a thumb ligament early, in May iirc, and still won the batting title. He waited until the offseason for surgery. 2024 numbers will be anomalies until his future decline. I’d extend him, but no further than 5YRs.
This is the way.
What do you think it will cost to extend La Regadera 3 years? How much would it save Pads (if it would) on his 2025 AAV?
The Athletic was saying 5/55 and that would save them close to $4 million. What it would cost on a 3 year deal would likely be more AAV.
I would say 3/$30, save $5MM in ’25. I’d sign it if I were him. Good money, loves the team/roster/city and gives everybody clarity on the issue. Would be an easy contract to flip in a couple, too.
Thanks to both of you
@Gwynning Players don’t sign extensions to be “flipped in a couple.” Especially when they “love the team/roster/city.”
True LFG, just explaining a potential “worst Padre case scenario” regarding Arraez.
Players don’t (typically) decide when or if they’ll be flipped.
They do if they have NTC’s. And even if they don’t it might make other players less likely to sign on the cheap without a NTC. Like if I’m Seth Smith circa 10 years ago I’d have been furious.
Long memory, LFG! Good on ya. Sincerely doubt Arraez gets a NTC, but we’re definitely getting too deep in the weeds with our theoreticals! Cheers bub
LFG is Ryan. Somewhere he has a spreadsheet or bookmarks of all the comments ever made about Padres players on this site.
And Harrison Butker is Ryan too right? Even though they had like a 2-week argument with each other on another thread awhile back? Or do you think that was just a cover-up lmfao.
Meh, you build a team, you field nine players, five on the bench, a dozen players in the bullpen.
Whether you get your hits from first base or from SS, it doesn’t matter, somebody has to hit eighth, somebody has to hit ninth.
You won’t be getting fantastic production out of your seven, eight and nine holes unless your spending a fortune or hitting on your prospects.
Defense wins baseball games, running the bases well wins baseball games. WAR not completely useless but also can’t build an entire team using the statistic because you need to sacrifice defense for offense or vice versa at more than a few spots around the diamond.
You can always find a glove first player with good speed at any position in baseball, and they usually can be signed cheaply. That means they can’t hit.
Matty Alou with a little more pop, less speed.
They should try to move Arraez, Cease, Suarez, and Cronenworth if they can. That shoumd free up over $50M to get less expensive but MLB prospects in return and free up budget for some non-headliner FA’s to complete the season and get reset for 26.
* MLB ready prospects
Who’s taking Crone’s contract?
Preller has already said he’s not eating money or attaching prospects in a trade of Jake Cronenworth.
Hard pass on the hard reset. No thanks!
Get Roki, possibly Crochet or Framber, resign Profar and the 40 Man is full. Let’s do this.
With what?
Typically a pen. Now days maybe electronically signed.
What you giving up for Valdez or Crochet?
And they are not dumb enough to give Profar $15-$18M per year. And Profar is not stupid enough to take less. This is his last chance at a big payday.
If Crochet costs one of Salas or Leo, then I pass. Shouldn’t take one of those 2 to get Framber in a walk year. If those talks prove difficult, pivot to some other arm (Luzardo?). The MiLB cupboards aren’t bare; there are still players that other teams covet beyond the Top 2. Hopefully Roki is a reality! Cheers Dan-o
I think they need a stud C more than then need a stud SS, but I have to say that at this point De Vries looks the most special of the two (nothing against Salas though) and would be the one I’d most label a “no trade”. But I can’t fathom trading either for a good SP with only 2 years or less of control.
I don’t think people realize how good Salas is. He is so good that every scout I have talked to at his games this past season have said that if it was just about what he does behind the plate he would be in the majors already. At 18 years old.
There is a solid shot that he is in a Padres uniform before the end of 2025. At age 19. The last 19 year old to start a game at catcher was in 1991.
Even if they hold him back to the start of 2026, no 20 year old catcher has started the season in MLB since 1991.
That catcher in both cases was Pudge Rodriguez.
There is no way the Padres trade either for a player with only 2 years of team control. Especially one that has a serious injury history and only a few months of being a SP.
Crochet has huge potential and I think the White Sox will trade him. I also think they would maximize their return if they traded him closer to the 2025 deadline so teams could see that he has returned from pitching by far the most innings of his career and is still healthy.
Gwynning I’m hoping Luzardoo isn’t available until he has had a chance to raise his value. I’m sure the back issue struck some time before he went on IL with it. He said in an interview he was being very careful during his 8 inning shutout start against the Brewers in May, well before the IL stint
Dennis Lin is still repeating that false line in this article that the Padres took out a $50 million loan to cover payroll when its been shown conclusively that they took the loan out AFTER the season was over and the purpose of the loan was completing the purchase of the land for Tailgate Park from the city and Gallagher Square. You can safely ignore anything he says.
In fact, little that has come out of the Athletic since the New York times bought it is worth reading.
He tries to say that “the organization does not comment on payroll” but they already have saying that they are hoping to keep payroll closer to 2024 ($231 million) than 2023 ($291 million), but that they have no set amount in mind.
Lin and his boss Rosenthal say what is likely to bring the most clicks, not the truth. Its really sad that you can get better “news” from bloggers like Robert Murray than from the Athletic.
Lin isn’t as plugged in as a beat writer should be, so I wouldn’t give his coverage and analysis too much weight.
I think at this point if he wants to cash in or stay in one place more than a season he can move to the npb and leverage that afterwards for a multi-year contract
Always love crap like this from Lin when he knows full well that Arraez and Preller said that they would explore that closer to Spring Training. Sometimes you wonder how writers like that keep their jobs.