Nationals Acquire Nathaniel Lowe

The Nationals and Rangers have swung a one-for-one trade that will see first baseman Nathaniel Lowe head to Washington in exchange for left-hander Robert Garcia.  ESPN’s Jeff Passan (multiple links) was the first to report the deal, which has now been officially announced by both teams.

Lowe will change teams via trade for the second time in his career, as it was just over four years ago that Lowe was dealt from the Rays to the Rangers as part of a six-player swap.  The Rays’ first base depth had left Lowe struggling for playing time in his first two MLB seasons, but he immediately found a regular job once Texas installed him as its everyday first baseman.  Lowe has played in 615 of a possible 648 regular-season games in his four seasons with the Rangers, while hitting .274/.359/.432 with 78 homers in 2576 plate appearances.

Between his 123 wRC+ over those four seasons and increasingly strong defensive metrics, Lowe has been worth 10.6 fWAR during his Rangers tenure.  It isn’t superstar production and the left-handed hitting Lowe has naturally been more consistent against right-handed pitching, but he has at worst been a steady regular, with hints of a higher ceiling of production.  Lowe hit .302/.358/.492 with 27 homers over 645 PA in 2022, though a .363 BABIP may have helped contribute to that career year.

Despite Lowe’s very solid play, there had been some whispers that the Rangers could be looking to clear some room at first base.  The recently-acquired Jake Burger figures to get a good chunk of the first base at-bats now that Lowe is off the roster, with Josh Smith, Justin Foscue, or Ezequiel Duran also in the running for playing time depending on how the Rangers opt to arrange their infield.  Josh Jung is slated to be the regular third baseman but Burger, Smith, or Duran could also be used at the hot corner based on matchups.

Lowe’s increasing arbitration price tag was also surely a factor in the Rangers’ decision.  Now entering his second arb-eligible year, Lowe was projected to earn $10.7MM for the 2025 season.  It is hardly an ungainly sum for a Gold Glove-winning first baseman with Lowe’s offensive production, but since Lowe turns 30 in July, Texas might’ve been considering the longer-term question of whether or not Lowe was a candidate for a contract extension.

Today’s trade answers that question, and gaining more flexibility at a premium position allows the Rangers to both see what they have in internal options, or to potentially keep first base open for a bigger free agent or trade target down the road.  Or, such a bat could still come this offseason, as Texas now has an even greater need for left-handed hitting depth after dealing Lowe.

It was no secret that the Nationals were looking to upgrade at first base this winter, as such free agents as Christian Walker and Paul Goldschmidt were on Washington’s radar.  Walker signed with the Astros and Goldschmidt joined the Yankees just within the last week, which quite possibly prompted the Nats to complete this trade as the first-base market continues to quickly thin out.

The Lowe deal is the clearest sign yet that the Nationals are ready to end their rebuild after five straight losing seasons.  The Nats’ youth movement has led to CJ Abrams, James Wood, Dylan Crews, and Luis Garcia Jr. becoming parts of the everyday lineup, but plenty more offensive help was still required for a team that finished near the back of the pack in several major offensive categories.

In adding Lowe, the Nationals now have a player still in his prime who can bring a veteran voice and championship experience to the clubhouse, in addition to what Lowe can provide on the field.  There is even a slightly hometown-hero aspect to the trade, as Lowe was born a few hours’ down the road from D.C. in Norfolk, Virginia.

The Nats have plenty of payroll space available, so Lowe’s salaries aren’t any kind of concern for the team.  Addressing first base by trading for Lowe instead of, say, spending much more in salary and draft capital to sign a Walker or a Pete Alonso allows president of baseball operations Mike Rizzo to still keep his financial powder dry for other big moves this winter or (perhaps more likely) next offseason or potentially at the trade deadline.  Rizzo and team ownership might prefer to give it one more season to see what they really have in their young core before really putting the pedal down in a full-fledged run towards contention.  In this scenario, Lowe is already under control if 2026 is really the Nationals “go for it” kind of year.

Garcia’s role in the deal shouldn’t be overlooked, as the Nationals now have an even greater need for relief pitching after dealing away a southpaw who showed plenty of promise in his first two Major League seasons.  Washington claimed Garcia off waivers from the Marlins in August 2023, and the lefty has a 4.03 ERA, 28.6% strikeout rate, 46.6% grounder rate, and 7.4% walk rate over 91 2/3 career relief innings.

Fifty-nine and two-thirds of those frames came last season, as Garcia posted a misleading 4.22 ERA that was inflated by some bad luck.  Garcia had a .329 BABIP and a very low 57.2% strand rate, and his 2.71 SIERA is perhaps a better reflection of just how solid Garcia’s performance was in 2024.  The left-hander doesn’t bring much in the way of velocity, but his fastball is used primarily to set up his excellent changeup, which was quietly one of the more effective changeups thrown by any pitcher in baseball.

With a swath of above-average Statcast metrics, Garcia will provide a huge boost to the Texas bullpen if he can replicate those numbers on his new club.  Garcia joins Jacob Webb and Hoby Milner as recent new additions to a relief corps that was destined to undergo an overhaul with Kirby Yates, Jose Leclerc, and David Robertson all entering free agency.  Since this trio is still unsigned, the Rangers could seek out reunions with any of their own free agents, but naturally it makes sense to fortify the pen with other longer-term arms like Garcia.  The left-hander turns 29 in June but is arb-controlled through the 2029 season.

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