Reports over the weekend suggested that the Orioles weren’t keen on giving up a compensatory draft pick in order to sign a pitcher who rejected a qualifying offer, which would seemingly rule out Max Fried, Sean Manaea, and Nick Pivetta from the team’s list of possible targets. Speaking with MASNsports.com’s Roch Kubatko and other reporters today at the Winter Meetings, Orioles GM Mike Elias denied that the qualifying offer was an obstacle in club’s quest to add pitching.
“We’re in on everybody….When there’s aspects of the rules that create wrinkles, you’ve got to weigh them, so we do that,” Elias said. “But there is no player that we’re not interested in or pursuing in some shape or fashion if we feel like the talent is additive to the current roster that we have.”
Signing a qualified free agent would require the Orioles to give up their third-highest pick in the 2025 draft as compensation. Since the O’s would stand to gain two compensatory picks after the first round of the draft if Corbin Burnes and Anthony Santander (Baltimore’s own qualified free agents) signed with another team for more than $50MM, the Orioles’ third-highest pick would therefore fall within the 30-40 range of the 2025 draft order.
Losing such a high selection is no small matter, considering how highly teams prize draft picks. Fans might grumble that the Orioles’ prospect depth should mean that they should be more open to moving draft capital if it means landing more proven big leaguers, yet it should be noted that Baltimore already gave up a pick to land proven talent last offseason — the Orioles included their Competitive Balance Round-A selection (34th overall) as part of the trade package that brought Burnes to Baltimore from Milwaukee.
Elias’ comments today lined up with his comments from November about the Orioles were exploring “the whole spectrum” of pitching targets. This means both ace-level pitchers and mid-rotation help, and Elias didn’t rule out the possibility that Baltimore could add two pitchers to its pre-existing rotation base of Grayson Rodriguez, Zach Eflin, Dean Kremer, Albert Suarez, Cade Povich, Trevor Rogers, and Chayce McDermott.
In terms of gaining an ace, Burnes could depart in free agency, leaving a particularly big hole atop the rotation. Elias acknowledged the difficulty in acquiring such pitchers, whether via free agency or (as the O’s did in landing Burnes) in trades.
While Baltimore’s deep farm system ostensibly gives the club a leg up in trade talks, “there aren’t too many teams making their major league players available for prospects right now,” Elias said. “Those that are, we’re deeply engaged with those teams. Those that aren’t in that mode, we’re exploring more major league-for-major league kind of trades, which obviously take unique fits on the rosters.”
Beyond just the rotation, the O’s are looking to bolster the relief corps as well. The Orioles’ decision to non-tender Jacob Webb and decline Danny Coulombe’s $4MM club option seemingly ran counter to this desire for bullpen depth, but Elias said the team was open to bringing either pitcher back.
“You’re not able to keep every player that you like at all times at any cost, and so we have to do a balancing act when we’re curating our roster,” Elias said. “Sometimes that involves making tough decisions much earlier in the offseason than you’d like to when you don’t have a full picture of what’s going to happen and you don’t have a crystal ball and you have to make some decisions early in the offseason. But it doesn’t close the door.”
In other words… get dunked on Ken Rosenthal.
At least seeing them signing O’Neil for 3 years adds a few more ticks to optimistic side.
Why?
Shows the new ownership is ready to spend some money
He kills against lefties and that was a massive weakness last year.
Amen, sadosfan. I’ve been hard on Mountcastle. Too many rants by me here to get “rid of that bum.” In retrospect, the man was the only right side thumper with the daunting task of taking on that mistake by the bay … the new LF wall dimensions. We’ll, in O’Neil he now has a partner in taking it on … and along with the LF wall being shortened, I’ve got Ryan as Os MVP in 2025.
I can see the new wall getting Mountcastle up toward the 22-25 HR for the year if he still scores say 425-475 AB. He had 30 2B’s last year. This doesn’t translate into a ton more runs but it is helpful. My issue with him has always been the K rate and the empty outs, swinging at the low and away slider. He started to walk a little more in 2023 and I was encouraged, but he returned to prior state in 2024. If he can hit .270, walk better and put several more over the wall, ok, I can stay with Mountcastle if they won’t spend for one of the big boys at 1B but be prepared to trade for a big boy in July if that is what is needed. After 2025 though even Mounty will get expensive and a decision will be needed..
If Ryan is MVP for orioles in 25 we are screwed
O’Neil was a waste of money. I dont understand how replacing someone whos good for 150+ games a year with someone who can barely play 90 is an upgrade.
O’Neil was plan B. Once Elias and crew realized they were out of the Tony Taters sweepstakes, they pounced on him early before other GMs did.
Me? I’m not a fan. K rate way to high. An overpay? Maybe. But, this move is just as much about helping Mountcastle get his mojo back. Combine their salaries and look at their combined power production potential from the rightside of the plate and the Orioles have something here.
One caveat. O’Neil will be the top salary guy in the line up. Does he have the chops to handle that moniker? Hope so.
A slight overpay, but I can live with it. The assumption was they will lose Santander. The move makes sense. Especially now that it seems the OF market will cost more than anticipated a few weeks ago.
I’d love to see more guys who can get on base. Santander was one of 4 guys on the team who had at least an OK walk rate. Adley has actually regressed, I hope he finds 2023 version.
Santander barely walked. What did u watch last year?
Sounds like the O’s are going down the path of teams like the Brewers, Guards, and Rays….spend as little as possible even when the window is wide open. Gotta spend some and trade from the farm when the window is this wide open or forget about it modern day baseball.
The AL is theirs for the taking. I really don’t get what they’re doing. They have so much cheap young talent. Spend money to solidify the rotation and bullpen. The AL is as weak as I can recall and they seem content to just wing it and see if they can win without doing much on the free agent front. They’re going to regret it.
@Lalo The AL is Seattle’s for the taking if they could just get a couple bats. That’s what you meant, right?
I predict Red Sox winning division next year.. unfortunately I’m predicting Orioles 3rd or 4th
@Veejh
To heck with facts, go with your own preconceived notions as the truth. You, do you, boo. Don’t ever change.
Awwww, jeez, I gotta a Boo tonight. You made my day.
This would be exactly the opposite of public comments made by new ownership. He cited being 74 and having less time to win than younger owners, who he may have to outspend. He went as far as to say he would not get sticker shock. Only time will tell, but why open yourself to public scrutiny if you plan to be the next Rays?
Mayo and Basallo for Crochet. I don’t know anything about Baltimore’s ownership, but they seem cheap. Crochet checks that box. Two years, on his current deal, is going to cost high end prospects though.
lol no shot
Hell no lmao.
Sign off
One of them makes sense not both
Uneasy with Crochet. The White Sox will wait it out and hope for an overpay. One season with more than 100 IP on record back to HS and already had Tommy John I believe. I’d like to see what the Mariners are willing to deal out of their stable of young starters.
No way orioles do that deal. Suck it up and sign a star Starter and save ur best prospects
Mariners will trade you one Castillo and one competitive draft pick for Mountcastle, Mullins and Mayo(or Holliday)
Mountcastle and prospects is a realistic framework but Mayo/Holliday/Basallo aren’t getting traded for an aging, expensive, and possibly declining Luis Castillo.
No thanks on Mountcastle.
Mayo maybe.
I would not consider Mayo for Castillo unless the Mariners were eating a ton of salary and still probably wouldn’t do it even if they were.
But for Kirby, Gilbert, Miller or Woo? I’d absolutely entertain that.
That’s a lot of dudes. I would be okay with Mountcastle and Mayo.
LOL, good one
Nice framework for a deal. We will take Bryce Miller instead and yes, we accept. Mayo Mountcastle. We will want that pick and 1 or 2 A or AA 15th to 30th best team pitching prospects.
Bryce Miller and a good RP with more than one year of control (cheap or expensive, but not super familiar with the M’s bullpen picture to know if they even have such a guy they would be willing to move) for Mayo, Mountcastle, McDermott, and a couple of interesting international teenagers to add to the longer-term pipeline.
The O’s would fill the obvious holes at the top of the rotation and in the bullpen, and the Mariners would get a firmly above average bat with an extra year of control to immediately slot into the middle of their lineup at 1B/DH in Mountcastle, plus 2 high ceiling prospects who could be contributors as soon as this season in Mayo and McDermott, plus a couple of faraway guys that they think they can develop into future contributors.
My favorite part is while in a window to win the title they keep getting swept in the first round of the playoffs. Keep those prospects o’s and we will watch you swept out again.
2023 Orioles were AL East champs, so that wasn’t a first round (which is the wild card btw) exit.
Curious who your team is?
skinsfandfw;
The 2023 O’s were carried by veterans that the FO has been systematically unloading.
The young players taking over may be very good in time. But they clearly need time to learn the ropes.
Replacing Anthony Santander and James McCann with Tyler O’Neill and Gary Sanchez for 2025 are hardly steps forward.
The offseason is only beginning, but obviously the FO is clearing space for more youngsters to get playing time. That’s fine. But the AL East is not “theirs for the taking” at this point.
The sad thing is that they keep jettisoning their team leaders. MLB is human beings playing in a field, not statistics on a spreadsheet and projections. Not all those young players are going to be successful – but until they’re given an opportunity no one knows who the keepers are. It’s reasonable to think that they take a step back for a year or so.
Samuel – I’m an Orioles fan and aware of the team composition, etc under Elias.
Not really sure what the point was replying to me here, as I said, I understand the team dynamics. I was only correcting the technicality BThomas’ comment about the team getting swept in the first round of the playoffs.
Sammy is going to sit here and pontificate about how Austin Hays, James McCann, and Kyle Gibson would will this team to victory because they’re crucial big leaguers and a team cannot win without them. & Jorge Mateo is the 2nd coming of Jesus at Shortstop.
It’s not rotisserie baseball!
Samuel
McCann wanted a multi year deal. He gets in the way of a young player (Basallo) potentially as early as a late season call up in 2025, or else 2026. Sanchez makes sense for a backup.
I’m going to take the over now on Santander getting 4 yr/80M as I think the OF market is going to cost more than it looked a few weeks ago. The flexibility with O’Neill at a cheaper rate – if he stays healthy – makes sense.
Some of the guys have been given the opportunity to step forward. Mateo does not have an MLB caliber bat and the Orioles cannot afford to give him a large role and be competitive.
Some development of the young hitters who still have room to grow (Holliday, Kjerstad, Cowser, Westburg, Henderson, and Rutschman – in order of who has the most to least growing) is going to be crucial this year. Incremental improvements among this group – getting on base more often, patience, less empty outs – is probably going to make or break the offense.
You poo poo on spreadsheets and projections, but they illustrate the issues on the team that I’m sure are known.to the “baseball people” who ALSO will look at spreadsheets and projections. Its not 1965 anymore, everyone uses Excel. Earl Weaver would have if he had it – he had his on index cards in his metal desk.
But over and above, starting pitching is needed. Burnes back, or Fried, a #1. I am highly intrigued if the Mariners will part with one of their young arms. Or else I’ll take Eovaldi if he’s not the only move (injury risk).
As currently made up, I have the Orioles at 84-78 next year. That’s the record the 1985 team with a great offense and not enough pitching got. Add those 2 starters and the bullpen arms they find every year and they can add 10+ wins to this.
Thornton Mellon;
I understand. But there’s more to winning baseball than hitting and pitching.
Start with defense and baserunning. Speed puts pressure on the opponents defense. There’s also Baseball IQ: Recognizing the game situation and then knowing when to take chances or dial things back, etc…..depending. The O’s did that well in 2023 which is why I became a big fan of theirs. That was led by the veterans that brought along the youngsters.
The O’s did little of that in 2024. The clock struck 12 somewhere in July with a series against the Rangers in which the O’s won. I came on here and said they’re not playing baseball properly anymore. Comments came schooling me with things like: “When a team wins 3 out of 4 (or 2 out of 3….whatever) then the team is doing just fine.” From that point on the O’s pretty much played .500 ball the rest of the year.
–
The team missed Mateo in 2023. His bat is fine – his defense and speed are game-changing. Adley looked different – it wasn’t just that he was injured….it’s that he was no longer a team leader. He was neutered for some reason.
They’re going to bounce Mateo and Cedric, quite possibly in-season. Trust me that Sanchez and O’Neill have always been poor fundamental players, and have never displayed leadership abilities. The key to winning baseball is the players not taking shortcuts. Earl knew that. I read his books in the 70’s. He knew how to use veterans, such as having Merv Rettenmund playing against the tough veteran pitchers while breaking in young Al Bumbry against the easier pitchers. The vets did it right and the youngsters learned The Oriole Way that was expected of them. None of that is ever discussed here. All I see is blanket stats that have no perspective.
So Mr. Hyde is back where he was 4-5 years ago. I agree with you that the O’s might do a bit over .500 in 2025. O’s fans are in for a dose of reality.
There is value in speed and defense, but not as much as you are placing on it. Nowhere near it.
This is not the 1980s NL and that era’s St. Louis Cardinals aren’t going to contend most years now just because they can run and play good defense.
I will resurrect my Cesar Izturis argument. Like Mateo, he could field and run. Like Mateo, he couldn’t hit and get on base, rendering the running useless. I remember all the spin on how fast he was and how slick a fielder. He saved a few runs with his glove. He cost many more with his lack of hitting. This is why the Orioles pushed him aside and went with JJ Hardy, which contributed to the 2010’s competitive window. Its definitely time for the Orioles to set their sights higher than Mateo’s level of production, which is why I’m hoping Holliday comes along in 2025 and sending Mateo to the bench.
Mateo’s bat is NOT fine, as 3 straight years of a morbid .267 OBP will attest. Can’t run much when you’re heading back to the dugout that frequently. I would have non tendered him. We had this discussion last September, I looked at teams .500 and above and maybe 2 teams would have benefited from plugging Mateo in as their SS. Two more could have used him on the bench. Out of 15. Most of the other teams had productive players.
Mullins can hit, that’s different. If he hits like the 2nd half of 2024 or something even close to his 30/30 season his speed and defense are pluses that boost his overall value from good to very good or very good to great.. But the longer the bat stays silent, the harder it is to justify his speed and defense.
You need the starting pitching. As you said, July was when the wheels came off. On the pitching side, that’s when Grayson Rodriguez went down, Irvin went back to being Irvin after a couple good outings, and Kimbrel lost it. When Burnes had the ball, except in August, you were very optimistic for a win. When Kremer, Irvin and the other spot starters had it? Not so much. You need at least 3-4 guys who are reliably giving quality starts more often than not, if not dominating, to give your offense a chance and to keep the bullpen from tiring. The bullpen also got fried in the 2nd half of the year.
You reference the 70s Orioles. Without as much player movement, I would think Earl felt pretty confident when Palmer had the ball (or Dobson, Cuellar…later Flanagan and McGregor). Yes the Orioles had good defense and Earl deployed matchups well. But the team wasn’t perfect. I think they held onto Belanger too long and his lack of hitting hurt the team more than his defense helped, in ’79 and certainly ’80. Trading DeCinces kind of out of spite because he was the player rep in ’81 may have been the difference in ’82. You referenced the platoons, he had Lowenstein and Roenicke (Ayala contributed some years) but the difference is, they could both hit. He also had ready made platoons in Singleton and Murray – a very good and a HOF level switch hitter respectively. But the game has also changed since the 70s and the Oriole Way is a bit outdated. Numerous teams have won in this century and not necessarily gotten along too well, played tremendous defense, had good speed, etc. just because they pitched and hit better than other teams and were better players.
Also, the team was very healthy in 2023, not so much last year. Huge difference.
I hear this.
Mateo if released might pass through waivers. He wouldn’t be more than a backup or AAA dept on most teams seeing most teams know he can’t hit.
Hays? He was hurt and non productive in the 2nd half again and currently finds himself unemployed. Certainly he’ll be late on the list as the OF’s sign.
McCann I would be fine with if he only wanted 1 year. He wants a multi-year deal. There’s always a job for a backup catcher.
Kyle Gibson? He wanted more than the $10M the Orioles would have paid him. He got $12M from the Cardinals who I don’t remember seeing in the playoffs. Despite pitching his best season in 3 years, he was bought out and is currently unemployed.
Don’t forget about Irvin, the shrewd, under the radar “smart pickup” he was. So effective that he was waived, passed thru waivers, stunk when he got back, was waived again, and stunk it up for the Twins down the stretch. He also finds himself unemployed.
The line of teams clamoring for their services is causing traffic jams.
Orioles have an abundance of 2-5 SP plus Bradish and Wells on the mend. The only piece missing is a TOR arm. IMO, if you can’t resign Burnes, go with what you’ve got. By the way, a healthy GRod with another year of experience under his belt becomes that TOR piece? He sure has the arsenal to be that guy. I’ve got Mouncastle as Orioles 2025 MVP; that’s unless GRod can stay healthy.
Does anyone really think my Orioles will even make playoffs next year when they won’t sign who they need and everyone else will get better ? Sad but true
It’s early. I’m not on them like usual this winter because I’m giving Rubenstein & company this winter to prove they’re going to go all in and not be content with being “good enough.”
I would say IF they don’t, and that means someone like Burnes or Fried plus maybe Eovaldi, I’ve got them at 84-78. That’ll be third next year, maybe 4th.
Scratch Fried. The evil empire got him for 8 yr
Bargain Bin Mike
How did Burnes not qualify for a QO ?
He did and he was.
But I thought Burnes was not on the list of QOed pitchers that Baltimore would choose from. I will take a look again.
Burnes was on their team last year.
I know, but does that rule out the consequences of being QOed then? The point I’m trying to make is it was thought Baltimore wouldn’t go after any QOed pitchers, but Burnes was QOed.
QO’s don’t matter to the team that made it. It doesn’t hurt them to sign a player they QO’d themselves.
But Burnes was QOed by Baltimore. There would be no ramifications for re-signing him.
The ramification is the loss of the pick they get if he signs with another team.
At this point it really makes no difference if we resign burnes or another QO’d starter. Either way you punt an extra comp pick.
Oh brother.
The O’Neill signing basically closed the door on a Santander return. They’re getting a comp pick for him leaving. So it evens out regardless
Come on, you don’t “curate” a roster. You “build” it. A baseball team is not a carefully selected collection of Christmas tree ornaments.
The Bargin bin as you call it has produced a lot of roster players for the Orioles.
Here is from my armchair. Sign Burnes to that long term deal. It’ll show the team and the fan base that the new owners are serious about competing.
Sign a mid tier starter. Don’t rely on any of last year’s TJ pitchers to come back late summer. Let them all get ready for 2026. Learn from Means and give them the 18-21 months they need. It never works to rush them back.
Get at least one of the #1 signed long term.
Bat Holiday lead off.
A top tier reliever for the 8th.
I get the point about being swept in the first round even if technically not true. I think the angle was getting swept in the first playoff round they are in. And yeah, that is an absolutely enormous problem. Division titles are nice but you aren’t content to just wave games won and division title banners. If that was enough, I love us and our future. But the playoff play the last two years was atrocious. Why that is? I am not sure. Manager not helping them to get in the right place, inexperienced guys getting tight and anxious, hard to say, probably many things.
But I think its clear rinse and repeat is a bad plan. Cant say I like the O’Neill deal. A more injured version of Santander from the other side of the plate who doesn’t seem heavily discounted off what Santander will earn. I do think some new faces need to join the clubhouse. Regular season its great but postseason, its a nightmare. Like the idea of a Christian Walker at 1st to give the team a productive more experienced guy that may change the chemistry. But dont want to give him 3 years and block Basallo at first. That I think is part of the problem. You have so many talented guys where you feel trading them or not playing them would be a mistake. But then they get to the playoffs and look green, lost, deer in the headlights. But what do you do? Hard to go out and trade Henderson Rutschman Westburg Milkman Holliday and Kjerstad and replace them with grizzled veterans.
I would like them to sign Fried and Tanner Scott and then trade for Crochet. Maybe add another RP. Or two. Would love to have an overabundance of great RPs and Dominguez and Soto give me no comfort. If possible, I would like to see Mullins extended for a year or two. Because hey, he got 100% of the runs in the 2024 playoffs. He was loose and playing well late and think compared to everyone else he adds a veteran presence. The glove is outstanding too.
I think they need to win a playoff game this year or Hyde has to be reevaluated. Maybe a Joe Maddon type who has seen it all and has tons of miles on him and can get the clubhouse right for the playoffs.
When Hyde was about to fight the entire Yankees bench he won me over. Maddon+Hyde=Cubs