1:51PM: The Mets’ offer to Hernandez “would’ve carried a similar annual average value to the contract he agreed to with the Dodgers but without deferrals,” The Athletic’s Will Sammon writes. Such shorter-term deals for outfield or DH help remain a possibility for the Mets, if for less than what it would’ve taken to sign Hernandez. For instance, Sammon notes that the Mets have interest in re-signing Jesse Winker in such a role.
1:25PM: The Mets’ interest in the free agent outfield market was seemingly limited to just Juan Soto, as unlike other Soto suitors, New York wasn’t known to have any public interest in the likes of Teoscar Hernandez or Anthony Santander as backup plans if Soto signed elsewhere. However, now with Soto already in the fold, the Mets made a late bid on Hernandez, as Newsday’s Tim Healey reports that the Amazins offered the slugger a two-year deal earlier this week. The dollar figure isn’t known, but Hernandez rejected the deal anyway and rejoined the Dodgers on a three-year, $66MM pact.
Since the Mets have the financial resources to be in on any available player, their interest in Hernandez could’ve been a case of due diligence. There’s no harm, after all, in checking in on a talented hitter to gauge his interest in joining the Mets, and president of baseball operations David Stearns might have seen an opening in a shorter-term deal since Hernandez was lingering on the market.
This isn’t to say that signing Hernandez would’ve been a bargain, exactly, as he would’ve cost the Mets even more draft and international bonus capital. Because New York exceeded the luxury tax in 2024, signing Soto cost the Mets $1MM in int’l bonus pool money, plus their second- and fifth-highest picks in the 2025 draft. Like Soto, Hernandez also rejected a qualifying offer, and thus signing him would’ve required that the Mets give up another $1MM from their international bonus pool, as well as their third- and sixth-highest draft selections.
Adding Hernandez would’ve further crowded the outfield picture. The projected starting outfield consists of Soto in right field, Brandon Nimmo in left, Jose Siri and Tyrone Taylor platooning in center, Starling Marte likely relegated to DH duty, and Jeff McNeil, Jared Young, and Luisangel Acuna able to step onto the grass in a pinch. Had New York signed Hernandez, the likeliest scenario probably would’ve seen Nimmo return to center field, unless the Mets were successful in opening up the DH spot by trading Marte. Reports from a few weeks ago suggested the Mets were willing to eat some of the $19.5MM owed to Marte in the event of a trade, and while no deal was thought to be in the offing, the Mets’ openness to cover salary might hint that Marte is the odd man out.
If signing Hernandez was seen as something of a unique circumstance, the Mets’ outfield depth probably means they’re less likely to seek out Santander or another outfield bat unless Marte is dealt. In terms of lineup additions overall, New York remains linked to Pete Alonso and Alex Bregman as the club looks to boost at least one corner infield slot.
Digdugler
ok
Zerbs63
Losers whine about their best
Lindor's Bodyguard
Sounds you’re a subject matter expert! Tell us more!
Zerbs63
Well since you asked let’s go 1986 WS Champs!
freeland1787
So basically the Mets did not have a serious offer on the table
Bucsfan4ever
Why would he want to play for a loser organization like the Mets when he still had the chance to go back to the Evil Empire on the Left Coast?
sportsfan117
Watch your mouth
TrillionaireTeamOperator
Unless it was for $67M I kinda understand why he turned it down.
Acoss1331
I still think Pete Alonso will sign with the Mets, I don’t see too many other teams going after him.
seamaholic 2
Don’t think they want him back that much. Seems like he’s Plan B if Bregman goes elsewhere. Stearns is known for being very good at moving on from a guy BEFORE he declines too far, rather than after like the bad GM’s.
MLB Top 100 Commenter
Mets or Nationals. Three years at $90 million or four years at $100 million, with plenty of opt-outs.
seamaholic 2
Watch the Padres if they end up trading Cease. Watch the Mariners if they can get someone to take Haniger (with a prospect).
MLB Top 100 Commenter
Padres need Cease more than Alonso. Even if they get Sasaki.
Blue Baron
Top 100: Not Washington since they traded for Lowe.
JackStrawb
@Acoss1331 The Mets aren’t going to shrug and sign a one-dimensional player just because he’s available—not when he’s already in steep decline—and not to even a 5/125m deal just because they don’t have to add the sixth year of that decline phase.
Also, why would a pretty good GM / PBOPS like Stearns lock in MLB’s worst corner IF defense for half a decade—does that seem like anything he’d do?
I can see a one year pillow contract (NO player options) if the Mets think Pete can handle DH for a season. It’s hard to see what the Mets have in mind at DH unless it’s a piecemeal approach of some kind, but they presumably won’t be doing something like bringing back Winker and keeping Marte around. TWO guys who shouldn’t be in the OF platooning at DH when they’re no longer particularly good at hitting would be absurd. And Winker, with all of two good full seasons in his career and an OPS of .699 from 2022-2024 is hardly a worthwhile improvement for Marte (.731 OPS 2022-2024).
Winkie was a little better last year, at least until he got to the Mets. A .393 OPS during September, though, and a .683 OPS overall with the Mets? No thanks.
The last thing any team needs is a modestly talented old platoon at DH.
geofft
Agree that Winker/Marte represents mediocrity, and the Mets should (and I believe will) look to do better at DH.
That said, I think your comparison of Winker to Marte misses the mark a bit. Marte cannot be evaluated based on his 3-year OPS because he is an aging player and clearly in a decline.
Moreover, using full-season OPS also fails to take into account the significant righty/lefty splits. This is especially true for Marte, whose OPS against RH starters last year was just .591 (and 659 against RHers overall).
Winker is clearly nothing more than a fallback position. But adding him would still be an upgrade over playing Marte at DH every day.
seamaholic 2
Man would that OF of Soto-Nimmo-Hernandez have sucked defensively. That would have been absolutely horrific. Kind of a bad, bad fit. Maybe they thought he had nothing on the table and severely underbid. Or maybe they were doing a favor for the agent and lit a fire under the Dodgers.
BITA
Soto and Hernandez could have occupied the DH role.
seamaholic 2
The chances of them using Soto as a DH are smaller than me flapping my arms and flying to the moon. Not after that free agency romance.
BITA
Has he ever said he doesn’t want to DH?
DarrenDreifortsContract
I think it has more to do with them not giving him all of that money just to DH.
BITA
He’s a bad fielder. They are paying for the bat similar to Miguel Cabrera. He doesn’t really add anything on defense at all.
DarrenDreifortsContract
Soto is nowhere close to as the hitter prime Miguel was.
BITA
It’s a different era. I think he’s at least close.
Ma4170
Statistically he definitely is, and he isnt even at his prime years (for cabrera it was 29-30)
Boodge106
I don’t think it is fair to say Soto is “nowhere close” to any hitter. You could certainly argue for other hitters ahead of him, but he is literally one of the best all around hitters of all time (arguably top 10 all time).
BITA
Yes and I wasn’t saying one is better than the other i was simply using an example of a guy with a huge contract who was paid to hit and defense didn’t really matter.
DarrenDreifortsContract
Top 10 all time? He has three 30 home run season and a .285 career average.
Boodge106
He has a .420 career OBP and his OPS and WRC+ are top 10 all time. People stopped using batting average as the measuring stick for hitters decades ago. There is a reason people compare him to a young Ted Williams. Is he better than Ted Williams? No. But his OBP and run production are not far behind at all.
YaGottaBelieveAgain
Maybe top 25-50 Too much career left
YaGottaBelieveAgain
It’s just silly to say Batting Average isn’t important.RBIs and Runs Scored.Getting your hits when it counts most RISP.
Joggin’George
Soto is as good as prime Miggy.
I don’t get all the Soto hate.
MLB Top 100 Commenter
Boodge106
The best position players, according to WAR3. Which are just their 3 best years of their career, not consecutively.
1 Babe Ruth (41.6)
2 Barry Bonds (37.1)
3 Ted Williams (34.1)
4 Rogers Hornsby (33.3)
5 Mickey Mantle (33.1)
6 Willie Mays (32.9)
7 Ty Cobb (32.6)
8 Lou Gehrig (31.8)
9 Carl Yastrzemski (31.4)
10 Mike Trout (31.2)
11 Honus Wagner (30.9)
12 Stan Musial (30.4)
13 Joe Morgan (30.0)
14 Cal Ripken Jr. (29.6)
15 Aaron Judge (29.3)
16 Alex Rodriguez (29.2)
17 Rickey Henderson (28.6)
18 Mookie Betts (28.5)
19 Ken Griffey, Jr. (27.6)
20 Mike Schmidt (27.6)
21 Johnny Bench (23.9)
22 Reggie Jackson (23.7)
23 Derek Jeter (22.1)
24 Sammy Sosa (21.8)
25 Tony Gwynn (21.6)
26 Juan Soto (20.5)
27 Mark McGwire (20.4)
28 Shoehei Ohtani (20.1 batting only, 28.5 with pitching)
29 Francisco Lindor (20.1)
I am sure that there are guys that I missed. The only reason that Soto is considered special is because he is younger than most with his accomplishments. He is not a top twenty hitter of all time unless he IMPROVES a lot as he gets older.
BITA
Soto is coming off the best year of his career. He’s only played 5 full seasons to this point. Why are you acting as if he can’t beat this weird 3 year stat you are looking at?
One of his biggest strengths besides his youth is his consistency and health. And that doesn’t get factored into this weird state of yours.
MLB Top 100 Commenter
Because the poster said Soto was literally one of the top ten best hitters of all time. Soto could have two more seasons identical to 2024 and the statement would still be false. Soto may in the future become one of the top ten hitters of all time, but his 2024 performance even repeated twice more falls markedly short.
Do you think Soto is better than Ruth, Ted Williams, Mays, Hornsby, Cobb, Gehrig, Musial, Mantle, Wagner, Schmidt, Judge, etc.?
BITA
WAR and best hitter are 2 entirely different things. WAR factors in defense which Soto isn’t good at. If you look at strictly offense he might be top 10 if he’s not he’s close.
MLB Top 100 Commenter
Soto is young so he has higher potential to end up top ten, he is nowhere near that now even excluding his defense and running. He did not hit better than Ohtani or Judge last year
Ma4170
Exactly… if analyzing best hitter, then WRC+ might be the better way to go. And im not sure why limiting it to three peak years.
Ma4170
Going by WRC+, since 1920, Soto is 10th on a very prestigious list. The guy can hit.
BITA
Now you are discrediting him because he’s young and hasn’t had the chance to play his entire career yet? Dude……
Ohtani and Judge are really good too. But Soto was doing it at a much younger age.
Joggin’George
Soto is great but, yes, calling him a top ten in history hitter is absurd hyperbole.
BITA
He’s absolutely a top 10 hitter in history at his age relative to anyone else at their age. Absolutely. Now of course he hasn’t played his whole career and he might have a late career like Pujols and Cabrera did where they fell off big time. But he might not. And Pujols and Cabrera are still considered great hitters.
JackStrawb
We’ll quickly discover the deal was for Teoscar to DH and take an occasional rep in LF for Nimmo.
Bill M
OK then, why not pivot to Profar? Taylor and Siri are nice outfielder pieces, but they’re really 4th and 5th outfielders. Profar solidifies the whole outfield picture.
Lindor's Bodyguard
Which Profar are we getting?
He belongs at DH.
His career OPS+ is lower than 104, which is what Marte hit in 2024.
CleaverGreene
Really? Profar Nimmo and Soto in the OF? The worst defensive OF in MLB in the last 10 years.
Ma4170
I think Santander would be the pivot especially if they move on from alonso
Ma4170
Power… basically a slightly cheaper version of Alonso
Ma4170
If mauricio is healthy I’d like to see him get an extended shot. He’ll never have a high obp but he could have extreme upside like soriano or maybe lower upside like albies.
geofft
Its a long season. Teams churn through 60 or more players along the way, and March/April rosters are meaningless by July or August. Mauricio will get his shot(s). But he’d have to absolutely break the doors down in spring training to get it on opening day.
He just started baseball activities a week or two ago. Even if healthy, he’s not likely to be fit enough to play daily and competitively at the major league level in April. And by the way, he hasn’t demonstrated that he’s ready for MLB yet, anyway.
I love his tools for 3B, but we have to face the reality that he played poorly there. And, he didn’t even hit well for the last three of his five weeks here. His pitch selection was poor, even when he was hitting well early on. It took just tow weeks for the league to figure him out how to shut him down. His final numbers were just a .653 OPS, and a 78 OPS+.
The right play is to start him in AAA while he gets more seasoning at both 2b, and 3b, then bring him up when he is more ready and more likely to stick.
Ma4170
Agree, I think at least a month in AAA if not longer, and he likely may get AB at DH more often than not in MLB because he hasn’t shown to be a plus at defense at any position.
bestone
A wise man once said….”if you’re not first, you’re last”….
BronxBombers23
He wasn’t that wise…
Tharv Moneberry
But nowadays you get participation certificates
Simm
Mets would have put Nimmo in center. So a bid makes sense.
CleaverGreene
The bid was a ruse. Stearns is big on OF defense.
JackStrawb
Particularly when your rotation is that… modest.
CleaverGreene
Yes, that is his MO. I don’t 100% agree with it, but he does get results.
batteryoutlet
i also offered Teoscar a contract with an undisclosed amount but his camp did not respond
johncoltrane
Not sure what the hell mets are doing
Biggest FA signing in sports history
They complement that with montas, canning, siri, converting holmes to SP, and passing on half a dozen solid FAs like buehler teoscar burnes tyler oneill c walker…yes stearns knows what he doing. But still rly questionable choices here
Miken31
Don’t forget bringing back Manaea. Hard to fully judge an offseason in December. Also not sure what would’ve made Buehler a solid free agent choice. The guy hasn’t been healthy and/or effective in years. Everyone is hung up on a couple of handfuls of solid postseason innings.
Flyby
you realize most of those “complements” were signed before soto signed. So do you hold up all free agent signings and wait to see if you sign soto for an unknown number then hope there are solid FAs to sign? Lets say soto signs with the nationals and everything plays out how it did to that point. Would you be happy with an offseason of just Buehler, Canning, Teoscar, and Walker (i think he signed after soto)/Alonso?
Didnt include Burnes as in personal opinion based on his deal, i think burnes was never going to pitch in ny unless he topped over what people said he was asking. Just hunch.
ReyDay
Why do the Mets need to do everything this offseason? They still have fundamentally a similar team as last year and can spend big next year on Vlad/Tucker or whoever. Unless you wanted Fried at 8 years, 218MM or Burnes for 6 years at 210MM which will most likely both be upside down in 2-3 years anyway.
Lindor's Bodyguard
Ummmmmmm. No.
YaGottaBelieveAgain
They didn’t pass on Buehler sounds like they were second (read the announcement on here) The Teoscar rumor does sound odd.
I think they would rather not sign FAs where they lose more picks.
Burnes issue with them was also originally asks of 7 year close to 250M and declining value
I’m afraid they might be worried about a PR hit with some fans if they don’t appear to be open to an Alonso return. They shouldn’t be. I think they prefer 1B to be a short term bridge player. Possible alignment with Vlad availability next year. I hope they don’t do that. Another defensively challenged player with weight issues
I believe they liked C Walker he may have preferred a certain geographic area
I’d move on from Alonso. Ryan Mount Castle maybe. Part time Vientos at 1B and 3B. Mauricio plays some 3B, 2B and OF. Acuna and McNeil 2B (if not traded)
I think NYM will make some trades to clear some redundancies they have. McNeil, Marte, Megill, Blackburn and some others.That might not happen till the end of ST. Probably not any major prospects leaving
geofft
@ YaGotta One problem with your plan is that it assumes that Mauricio and Acuna are ready. More likely than not they aren’t. Another problem is there are no “redundancies” to clear. They are depth. 25-man rosters don’t win, nor do 40-man rosters. It takes 60 players to make it through a season. Having talented players at multiple tiers of depth is a necessity, not a redundancy. If or when Acuna or Mauricio proves to be ready, the Mets can make trades then.
CleaverGreene
Going well over 300M in payroll is a questionable choice also.
Miken31
Cleaver Greene:
What makes going over $300 million a questionable choice? That would only be the case for a team that was going to be limited or not willing to sign a certain player because of their overall payroll. The Mets don’t fit that mold. If they want a player bad enough, they’ve already shown that payroll is not going to get in the way.
10centBeerNight
Stearns / Cohen don’t leak. So despite the 100s of fake clickbait accounts posting hourly, none of these people have clue 1 what club is up to. Most sobering is the ghost of SI and Sporting News reduced to “former scout predicts Mets 4 time all-star to BETRAY team for rival.” And the mirror AI regurgitations. And clown accounts like “Mets Batflip”.
Of course the good news for NYM fans here is – they are far from done. Most educated fans always recognized that and didn’t freak out over “montas being final piece of the puzzle”
Never Remember
You seem like a Cohen kissbutt fanboy. Admit their pitching sucks and is unlikely to get better because their GM is against paying pitchers on long term deals. They’ll look good in 3rd this year.
Miken31
Yeah, and what were your expectations for them last year? You should return that crystal ball of yours.
Never Remember
I had none since no one cares about the Mets outside NY.
Miken31
Keep posting…you keep confirming the lack of a brain in your head.
Blue Baron
Inside Out: No one cares outside NY? Seriously?
Then explain why, when I was in Phoenix for Mets@Dbacks last August, I sat near several groups of Mets fans from the Phoenix-Scottsdale area and met others at my hotel from other parts of Arizona as well as Nevada, New Mexico, and Utah.
When you make dumb pronouncements like this, you see, you just sound like an ignorant shmuck.
Cash-Man-NY
Good thing Soto is all about $$$ because if he truly signed with the Mets because he felt it would provide him with the best opportunity for championships he would be upset watching the top available free agents come off the board.
ReyDay
He signed for 15 years, why do the Mets need to sign every big FA this offseason? They still would be behind Dodgers anyway, so take a year or two be patient is a much better strategy then firing all your ammo this offseason to see it backfire in 2-3 years.
JackStrawb
That sounds right, and if it is right they won’t be signing Bregman. Why saddle yourself with a 33-34 yo 3Bman (or a 32-33 yo 1Bman) in 2-3 years just when you’ve positioned yourself to pass an ancient Dodgers team?
JackStrawb
Dear Idiot, if two companies are willing to pay me 50m a year or 51m a year, then I’m (as are most people) going where the ambience is superior. The extra 2%, which has even less concrete utility than its trivial percentage suggests, isn’t worth headaches.
CleaverGreene
Yes, because loading up declining players on 6-8 year contracts is such a great idea.
He really really should be targeting a 375M dollar 79 win team again while waiting for those contracts to end,
spirit of truth
Does it really matter at this point?
Biggavelli
I wouldve like Teoscar.. nice addition to share DH and outfield with Soto.. add to an alonso reunion and that lineup wouldve been set! Trade marte for a bulpen arm and eat up some salary
Lindor-ss
Vientos-3b
Soto- Rf
Teoscar-Dh
Alonso-1b
Nimmo-LF
Alvarez-C
Siri-CF
Acuña-2b
CRAZYY!
BronxBombers23
Soto will probably hit 2nd.
Simm
Now do the lineup as is…
larkraxm
You forgot the OMG guy! Do the pitching rotation too! That is my favorite. I’m sure when they brought in Soto, they promised to surround him with Jessie Winker and Tyrone Taylor. East Coast Angels!
Simm
They don’t even have winkler
larkraxm
The Fonz!
Simm
He is delayed on listing that lineup and rotation.
Seems so eager to do it when it was fake.
phenomenalajs
Yet, but they’re interested in bringing him back. Also, it seems that Bregman and Alonso might not be mutually exclusive but that could block younger players.
CleaverGreene
What’s crazy is having a 20M Marte as bench pinch hitter.
geofft
@ Cleaver But what are the alternatives? Play him even though he doesn’t get the job done? Trade him and eat most of the money anyway? They’re stuck with the cost no matter what they do. Now its just a question of using him where and how it benefits the team the most.
ssowl
If the Mets truly have unlimited spending money why are they sitting on their hands after Soto?
Blue Baron
ssowl: What makes you think they’re sitting on their hands?
CleaverGreene
What makes him think they have unlimited spending money?
larkraxm
Because they don’t have unlimited spending money, plus not everyone wants to wear the same uniform as the Boise State Broncos.
Blue Baron
larkraxm: What an amazingly dumb comment. Are you always like this, or are you just showing off today?
larkraxm
Hmmmm… I am always making fun of the Mets, and I’m also showing off today. So to answer your question…Yes.
Blue Baron
LOL
JackStrawb
@larkraxm I had to look. It’s a fair point.
dugmet
Unlimited spending is not the organizational plan. They are committed to allowing younger players compete and earn spots on the roster. Too many long term contracts start blocking the flow. Plus penalties for unlimited spending impact amateur talent acquisition which does not support their strategy.
Lalo says show me
Who is sitting on their hands? Offering the most money doesn’t guarantee anything.
If the Mets sign a player it’s they’re just spending too much money. If they don’t sign a player, it’s they missed out.
Maybe the team has a plan on how it wants to spend that doesn’t revolve around signing every available free agent.
And nobody ever claimed signing Soto guaranteed them winning the division. They’re likely still a third place team, but still have a very good shot at the playoffs.
DarrenDreifortsContract
The disrespect!
He wants to play for a winner anyway.
Miken31
He played for one last year. How many teams repeat? To win a World Series next year he probably should’ve picked someone else.
Mickey Solis
Nope. He was c***teasing everyone else and running home to d*ddy in the end. Stupid weasel knew without the purchased ringers around him his numbers would suffer. This league is a joke. And the fact that the Mets were the only other team to offer him a deal (probably) shows that only a couple of teams even care to try and stand up to the bully Dodgers and their endless funds (and the Mets and Yankees are basically the two other teams in the same boat). Shove your “your favorite owner could do it too!” narratives up your phony LA a**es and don’t insult anyone’s intelligence. The Dodgers are abusing the heck out of a broken league and everyone but the morons “defending their honor” are beyond sick of it.
larkraxm
Wow! The D-backs can sign Corbin Burnes though, and that is ok, right? How many FA are the Dodgers allowed to sign, in your humble opinion? Just because the Dodgers pay somebody, doesn’t mean they are worth the money. Just because the Yankees sign Danny Tartabull to the largest contract in MLB history, doesn’t mean they won the world series. Just because the Mets paid two pitchers $90 million that were collectively 90 years old, doesn’t mean that they gave them a WS ring. We are all sick of people and teams that take their portion of revenue sharing and throw it on their dragon’s pile of gold, and then complain that they can’t compete. Just quit watching if you don’t like the broken league. Watch soccer.
Mickey Solis
It’s teams like the Dodgers that are the reason revenue sharing even has to be a thing. The luxury tax is a joke to them. The D Backs have to desperately spend just to keep up with these LA clowns who admittedly still have to play by the rules of only having 26 players on their roster, so some players can’t get their wish and must sign elsewhere, but that’s all a team like AZ can afford. So they’re done after getting one player basically.
larkraxm
The Dodgers re-signed their own free agents in Hernandez and Edman, and signed Blake Snell. I know that the dodgers are annoying on their own, but the players and their agents are agreeing to these deferrals, and every team can do it if they want to. The Dodgers added Snell. AZ added Burnes. The D-backs did better in my opinion.
Mickey Solis
Well their “own free agents” is a stretch considering neither of them were Dodgers prior to 2024. It’s just a sad state of affairs this sport is in, but it’ll take three or four straight LA World Series for MLB to finally realize it has a problem.
JackStrawb
@Mickey Solis You mean the thing that hasn’t happened in the decade since the current Dodgers model took hold, and is hugely unlikely to happen?
The Dodgers in theory can assemble teams good enough to have a 60-40 edge in every postseason series against the best teams in MLB*** and they’re STILL barely better than a 1 in 5 shot to win three consecutive postseason series in a given year (which does them the favor of assuming they won their division) and therefore win the World Series.
Now do the math for winning even 3 WS in a row.
It’s ~1.008%. 1 chance in 100. Even starting from today the Dodgers winning 2 additional, consecutive WS is just ~4.67%, less than 1 chance in 20 they win in 2025 and 2026.
As for winning four in a row from scratch? ~0.00218, or a little better than 1 in 500.
***Meaning LAD would go 97-65 in a league filled with nothing but teams of the caliber of the 2024 Yankees, Mets, Phillies, Braves, Baltimore, Cleveland, Houston, Milwaukee, and the Padres. They’ve never been that good. They’ll never be that good, so even the long odds given above are even longer in practice. If LAD is a more realistic 55% to win every postseason series, their chance of winning 4 World Series in a row is less than 8 in 10,000.
JackStrawb
Among the points here is, MLB did the math a while back and understood how unlikely an obvious dynasty is in the sense of one team winning even two World Series in a row (at best 1 chance in 20), never mind winning three or four in a row, or something like three WS during a four year span.
In addition, the age of most free agents is almost exquisitely timed to thwart efforts at a dynasty. You’re buying the most expensive players in the game at a time when nearly all of them are into their decline phases.
Look at how the Dodgers have so maxed out on payroll and on aging or old players that they weren’t even in on Soto in any serious way. The combination of youth and production was as good as it’s been probably for any FA since Alex Rodriguez, and the Dodgers couldn’t meaningfully benefit from adding him at that salary even though he’s not significantly different from Shohei in terms of NPV $$$ per FA win.
Mickey Solis
You make a very valid point, I can’t necessarily argue with the numbers, but I’ll throw this out there. Back in August Caesar’s Sportsbook offered a 15/1 prop bet that the Dodgers would win in 24/25, which I gladly jumped on figuring they had a great shot in 24 and would stay aggressive this offseason (which they have). They will always win their division and have homefield and will be head and shoulders above everyone else in the sport (even with a ton of injuries as they had this year). I would even argue that the end doesn’t justify the means, so if they fall short it doesn’t mean MLB isn’t inherently broken. Maybe this is just a “window,” but if they’re consistently able to not only outspend but offer weather and constant success, other teams will always be at a major disadvantage. MLB has hung its hat on having a variety of different champions because of the supposed “randomness” of the postseason, but that argument — and frankly, that reality — will only get them so far when it comes to trying to justify the way things are set up right now.
JackStrawb
@Mickey Solis Well said, once we shift the context away from winning the World Series. It’s deeply unfortunate that one team is able to get a lock on their division and that so many teams are largely outside the postseason tournament except by random chance. The Rangers didn’t win in 2023 because they had a FO in the top tier of the sport—they won in 2023 because of how MLB has gone to great lengths to randomize its postseason, and the Rangers happened to be in the clutch of teams capable of shooting for a wild card, in their case by spending half a billion on two players during the 2021-2022 offseason. The Pirates can’t do that. The A’s can’t, and etc, whereas the Dodgers will always have singular advantages and are able to position themselves vis-a-vis Texas the same way Texas is able to position itself vis-vis the Pirates.
Still, baseball is random enough that even a team with more advantages than the Dodgers haven’t been able to come particularly close to their success. I’m speaking of course of the Yankees. As for LAD, they’re a veritable unicorn in the era of free agency, If we plan and account for unicorns we tend to undermine a great deal else. The 12-team postseason was one way to deal with big market dominance and it’s made the regular season less interesting than it’s ever been.
Your bet, by the way, was a losing proposition. It’s your money, of course, but it was clearly against the odds.
As you doubtless know, your 15/1 bet involved a 6.25% chance of winning the two WS back-to-back and required a 25% chance to come in each of those two years.
That requires the Dodgers, on average, to be a ~63% favorite to win each of three postseason series (AND assumes they’ll win their division, which while highly likely isn’t a certainty), yet they weren’t even able to post a .630 record in the regular season against what was on average .496-caliber opposition. Further to the point, the average postseason team excluding the Dodgers won 91 games, roughly a .559 season.
A 98-win team like LAD has nowhere near the requisite 63% chance of winning each of three postseason series against teams averaging 91-wins / a .559 record.
Well, anyway… that’s how sports books make billions, by setting the odds to balance how crowds tend to bet rather than what the correct odds are. Cheers,
Mickey Solis
Well statistically you are right but let’s be honest, we haven’t had a roster this stacked since the late-90s Yankees and if you believe in the law of averages, we’re pretty due after a quarter-century for SOMEONE to repeat. Hey, I wouldn’t mind losing the bet for MLB to get back some of its self-respect. But today, they signed another notable name. They will not stop and it’s clear they have both the resources and will to separate themselves in a league that completely enables it.
Camikey
I don’t understand the Mets’ interest in signing a guy for DH. Seems like between Marte, Nimmo, and Soto, they have plenty of veterans to cycle through that spot, not to mention Vientos as long as either Baty or Mauricio are ready to play third on occasion. I think the interest in Hernandez was just due diligence and maybe an attempt to apply some pressure on Alonso. Once they sign Pete, I think they’ll call it good for bats.
YankeesBleacherCreature
They’ve been wanting to trade Marte.
Camikey
True, but he’s there at the moment.. Assuming they do sign Alonso, it’s entirely possible they’ll swap Marte, in which case it’s also possible that Pete may step into some DH appearances instead. Either way, I don’t think it makes sense for the Mets to sign Winker or somebody like that.
CleaverGreene
Are they gonna eat 15M dollars because I don’t think that they’ll have any takers at more than 5M?
JackStrawb
@Camikey Among the problems with that is the cost of cycling say Nimmo and Soto through DH. It means putting the limp bat of someone like Taylor in the OF and therefore into the batting order. The falloff is significant if the Mets pick up a real DH—and if they don’t that’s one more gap in the batting order.
As for Marte, it would be serious malpractice for the Mets to go into 2025 with their current half a batting order and think Marte should be their primary DH. Typical age-related decline gives the 36 yo a 2025 projection of an OPS+ around 96. Adding a serious DH instead of Marte is the lineup spot where they can add the most production in one shot without spending close to $200m on an old player already in significant decline such as Bregman. If they were going to go that route they should have moved on Adames early. Similar cost to Bregman, two years younger, gets Vientos off 3B, and they have a serious SS to spell Lindor if his back problems continue.
Strange offseason for the Mets—I wonder what the plan was if they DIDN’T add Soto?
The current team has a reasonable chance of making the postseason, but not a great chance of that, and the disinclination to build a team with a better shot at moving through the postseason should it get there, ie by adding another aging TOR or a serious bat on a multiyear deal only makes sense if Cohen has no real interesting in sustaining a payroll much above $300m during the next five years.
At least they’re recognizing how poorly the farm has been performing and that their old nucleus is a real problem. Adding Burnes, Bregman, and Teoscar would have probably put them second only to the Dodgers in the NL, but hardly guaranteed they’d even win the division, never mind even get to the World Series, let alone win it all. And in 2027 they’d be trying to keep an ancient team from collapsing by signing ever more free agents in decline.
For now it’s only Nimmo, Lindor, Senga, and Diaz in the $15m-plus club ($88.1m, total) who’ll be 33 and older going into 2027. That’s a lot, but it’s only Nimmo and Lindor in 2028 and after. Now imagine you’ve also got a 33 and 34 yo Burnes and Bregman adding $60m to that drag, and for the three-four-five years after 2027.
I still think they’re trying for Cease, but won’t be surprised if they don’t get him. It made sense they haven’t made a significant trade yet from the farm, given most of their top prospects are at low ebb after weak 2024 seasons—so why sell low? Only Sproat significantly improved his stock, and even then it was only thanks to 62 innings in AA.
Dumpster Divin Theo
Having lost out on Teoscar, the NY baseball heads could turn their attention to Tetony or Tegrammy
LETS GO METS/JETS/KNICKS
Don’t quit your day job
Blue Baron
Theo: Lame, very lame.
kodion
Does all the deferred money impact future payrolls in any way? Do the Dodgers, for example, count $100million/0 players against Luxury Tax in a given future season or is the impact limited to meeting their obligation to the player(s)?
YankeesBleacherCreature
No, it doesn’t. It only counts against the LT for the years the player is active under contract
JackStrawb
@kodion It’s the total NPV of the contract divided by the number of years of the contract, where for each year of the contract where the player is expected to take the field if at all possible, an identical amount is credited.
Ohtani’s deal: the NPV is, say, $460m, which includes the NPV of the deferred money. The contract itself during which Ohtani is expected to take the field is for the 10 years from 2025 through 2034.
$460m / 10 = $46m
For the purposes of stating payroll, and for LT purposes, $46m is therefore counted as payroll to Ohtani for each year fr 2025 through 2034.
The issue of taxes is entirely different and depends on various factors not relevant here.
Red Sox Restoration Project
Mets still don’t have a postseason bound rotation in my eyes. They may still get in, but I wouldn’t count on their starting pitching to carry them
Carter86
Same thing everyone said last year, and they didn’t have Senga all year.
Red Sox Restoration Project
And they fell short in the postseason. Got very lucky against the Phillies.
I’ll laugh if they miss it and both Verlander and Scherzer rebound into aces
User 3240017344
“they won’t get into the playoffs, just look at last year where they got into the playoffs. If they do get to postseason they won’t win, if they do win it’ll be lucky, and if they don’t end up winning WS then I was right and they never had a rotation worthy of the postseason”
Red Sox Restoration Project
I could be wrong, just my thinking
YankeesBleacherCreature
The Mets are fully capable of making moves at the trade deadline and will if the playoffs are in jeopardy.
Red Sox Restoration Project
Yes, but deadline deals can be fluky. If they don’t have a record worthy of the playoffs by that time, good luck. Prepare, prepare, prepare. Their rotation is nothing to brag about at all, maybe with the exception of Senga.
Not saying they won’t make it, but I see Phillies and Braves as formidable teams and I think the West is better this year as well
Miken31
Red Sox Restoration Project:
“Got very lucky against the Phillies.“
Care to explain how luck factored in any way, shape, or form?
Red Sox Restoration Project
I just think the Phillies didn’t play as well as they are capable. Honestly, I wanted the Mets to beat them, I just still say Phillies were thr better team. They had the better record. Everyone knows the postseason isn’t about who is the best, but rather who is on the hottest streak. That worked well until the Mets ran into the buzz saw of the Dodgers and reality kicked in.
Maybe I’m wrong. Completely. But let’s see what happens this year, Mets fan. I’m not convinced they are the best team when they snuck into the postseason and had one hot run. I honestly like the Mets more than either those teams, so I hope they keep it up.
Red Sox Restoration Project
And how about the fact the Mets made it there without a bona fide ace?
Miken31
Red Sox restoration project:
I appreciate you giving your opinion and saying you might be wrong. Of course we’re all giving our point of view, but when a team doesn’t play their best, sometimes it’s because the other team is playing better. So I can’t accept luck came into play unless there were some kind of fluky plays or crazy plays that occurred and nothing like that did. The Mets just beat them. And despite the Phillies having a better record, that’s really just because the Mets got off to such a bad start. We know they had the best record in baseball the last four months of the season, so there was nothing fluky about what the Mets did or them just getting hot at the right time.
Miken31
Red Sox restoration project:
Despite not being an ace for his career, Manaea did pitch like one the second half of last season, so essentially he was their ace. Whether he repeats that or not, who knows? Besides the fact that teams win in different ways. The whole bona fide ace thing is becoming a bit more old-fashioned, and I think we have to change the way we look at it. Teams are winning with entire pitching staffs now, not just top heavy pitching.
Red Sox Restoration Project
But you’re discrediting the Phillies’ overall record and the early games count. You can’t just look at one sample size because it favors the Mets. Both teams did well, i felt the Phillies had the better team on paper.
Red Sox Restoration Project
Occasionally yes. But we’ve seen aces win as well. I appreciated your love for the Mets, but honestly, I wouldn’t go arpund saying they’re champions until we see what they do. Baseball has new teams come out and win every year.
And honestly, I’m not even guaranteeing a postseason spot for the Mets. It may happen, buy I’m a wait and see type of person. Last year they exceeded expectations and the years prior they flopped when they had decent players. Literally anything can happen
Red Sox Restoration Project
Manaea also had a career year last year, so there’s no guarantee he repeats this.
Mets fought so hard to get Soto, but what they really need is an ace. Right now Soto’s bat just replaces Alonso, albeit a better bat, but still. The rotation could be very good or very bad, but lots of questions swarm around it.
User 3240017344
Red Sox
They do not need an ace.
Miken31
Red Sox restoration project:
I’m not discrediting anything. I’m simply stating facts. And would you rather be the team that had a better overall record or the team that beat that team and went further in the playoffs? Again ultimately what I’m taking issue with is what you saying that the Mets were lucky. There’s nothing to substantiate that point.
Miken31
Red Sox restoration project:
“I appreciated your love for the Mets, but honestly, I wouldn’t go around saying they’re champions until we see what they do.”
Uhhh when did I say this or anything like this? You’re not guaranteeing a postseason spot for the Mets, which is fair. There’s not really many teams you can guarantee a postseason spot for. Let’s see how objective you are. I hope you’re not guaranteeing a postseason spot for the Red Sox at this point.
Red Sox Restoration Project
Dodgers lost several years in the playoffs until last year. My point is that the playoffs are a crapshoot once you get there. Any team can win, but that “any team” isn’t always the Mets you propose it to be. You are shielded by the Mets’ success that you just don’t think they can be beaten when they don’t even have the best team on paper and didn’t even win the division last year.
Red Sox Restoration Project
Red Sox are mediocre. If they get in, it’s a stroke of luck. I’m not a biased fan.
Point is, your argument about the Mets’ success is not any different than what I’m saying. What makes them better than the Phillies other than that they beat them in the postseason? Phillies won the division. I dont care about the small sample size of one last month. The whole season matters. That’s a FACT Phillies won the division, and Braves did just as well as the Mets.
Several years Dodgers were the best team and came up empty… so whatever your argument is about the Mets being “the best team thats going to win,” I’m not buying it. I know what stats you mentioned, but that doesn’t mean they are the best overall team. Still lost the division, still lost to the Dodgers, still just barely snuck in and still don’t have an ace on their roster. Anything can happen.
Fine, they’re a good team if that’s what you want me to admit. I dont think they’re the best. I’d take the Phillies and maybe even the Braves over them. I don’t like the Mets’ rotation and can’t see them winning the division with Manaea as #1.
Red Sox Restoration Project
You’ve literally been arguing with me that your Mets are the best team in the NL, and you said it several times in the past, despite Phillies playing better in the regular (larger sample size) of a season.
The postseason is a crapshoot. Anyone can get hot and win. DBacks were a pretty bad team in 23 that got to the World Series.
It just so happened that the best two teams in 24 got to the WS, though the AL was much weaker IMO.
2025 is a whole new ballgame.
Miken31
Red Sox restoration Project:
I agree the playoffs can be a crapshoot. The best teams don’t always win. But it’s usually not the worst teams that win either. You keep putting words in my mouth that I’m not saying and it’s really bizarre. Here’s what you said:
“Any team can win, but that “any team” isn’t always the Mets you propose it to be. You are shielded by the Mets’ success that you just don’t think they can be beaten when they don’t even have the best team on paper and didn’t even win the division last year.”
I never proposed any team will be the Mets. What are you talking about? This is two posts from you now where you’ve flatly made up things that I’ve said that I haven’t even come close to saying. I guess this is just a habit for you.
Miken31
Red Sox restoration Project:
I’m not saying the Mets are definitely better than the Phillies, but an argument can be made for them having been the better team than the Phillies in the end last year. Ultimately, they had a better record than them for the majority of the season and they beat them in the playoffs. I’m just stating facts. I didn’t address a small sample size. I addressed 2/3 of the season where the Mets played better than the Phillies. Again just stating facts. I appreciate your objectivity in terms of the Red Sox. What I’ve said about the Mets is also objective. I honestly don’t care much about the division as just making the playoffs because the division doesn’t necessarily mean anything.
Red Sox Restoration Project
Maybe I’ve embellised what you said a bit simply because you respond to every comment i make about the Mets and imply that they’re the best team without even considering that there are 29 other teams, all trying to improve from last year.
I get that the Mets were good last year but I’m allowed to feel the way I believe without you trying to justify my opinion that they are the best team. I can have a dissenting opinion, and I’m sorry your team is part of that, but I don’t feel the need to be justified about it, because this is how I feel.
You started this by taking the bait. I’ve told my opinion and you just want to argue for the Mets. My points make sense to me, so maybe you just misinterpreted my post, but the point is, there’s 29 other teams than the Mets. Wherher you say they’re the best or future champions or not, you HIGHLY imply they are better than every other team.
Miken31
Red Sox restoration project:
You simply make statements up. Tell me where I said the Mets are the best team in the NL. Go back and find a single statement of that. Your interpretation is very off. I said a case can be made that the Mets were better than the Phillies at the end of last season. The Phillies weren’t the best team so why would me saying the Mets could be better than them mean the Mets are the best team in the NL? And I said several times in the past are the best team in the NL? No I didn’t. I don’t even know you and I’ve never posted with you before. And I’ve never posted to anyone else that the Mets are the best team in the NL. I said they had the best record in baseball over the last four months of the season. An undeniable fact.
Red Sox Restoration Project
You have posted against me before, it was under another username of mine and you have always taken the bait and implied that Mets are your “one and only glory boys.” If you didn’t say they were the best, you highly implied it. I come here and talk about all teams, not just the Sox. You said the Mets were better than the Phillies becauae they beat them in the postseason, which is half true, you made it sound like the Dodgers weren’t a factor. You have been responding to all my posts and touting your one and only Mets. You can’t accept when someone doesn’t agree with you about how well the Mets are as a team.
The only thing I’ve seen you right about is the Mets making the postseason last year and signing Soto, which i feel is a huge mistake.
Miken31
Red Sox restoration Project:
But I’m not implying the Mets are better than every other team. You are reading into something I’m not saying. Your interpretation is just off. I can’t help you with that. The Mets were one of the best teams in baseball last year. It doesn’t mean they’re the best team. Clearly they weren’t the champions. And they had the best record in baseball over the last four months of the season. I don’t think anything I’m saying there is crazy. And an argument can be made that they were better than the Phillies based on that information with them, beating them in the playoffs. Again, not crazy statements. Of course you can have a differing opinion, but the whole point of this is we’re supposed to give our different points of view isn’t it? You’ve just gone way overboard in terms of what I’m stating. There are a lot of crazy posters on this board who make a lot of outlandish statements, but I haven’t been doing that with you and that’s how you’re treating me.
Red Sox Restoration Project
Well it seems like all you say is how the Mets are a good team. Every dissenting opinion, you take the bait. But call me insane…
Miken31
Red Sox restoration project:
OK, you post under different names? That’s weird. I don’t take any bait. I’ve just been debating with you. You’re arguing with me, but I’m not arguing with you. You’re acting like I’ve been calling you names and discrediting your opinions. We’re just giving our point of view so I’m not sure where you’re getting off with all of this. I don’t say the Mets are my “glory boys.” That’s just weird and creepy phrasing. I’m just a fan of a team and I have an opinion. What did I say that sounds like the Dodgers weren’t a factor? I don’t even know what that means. They won the World Series. They are the biggest factor. I can accept when someone disagrees with me about the Mets, but aren’t we supposed to be debating our point of view? If you don’t use any logic, facts, and reasoning, how can anyone respect your opinion? What you’ve done more than anything else is just make things up that I’ve said and each time I say show me evidence where I said that you can’t do that.
Miken31
Red Sox restoration project :
I’m a Mets fan. So I talk about my favorite team. I don’t think that’s an unusual thing. I don’t talk about the Angels or the Rockies or the Orioles. I don’t really care much about those teams so I usually focus on conversations on my favorite team. I don’t know why you view it as “taking bait.”If someone has an opinion about my team, whether it’s good or bad and I have an opinion, I’m going to share it. You seem to view everything as some kind of battle or something. It’s not that serious.
Old York
Signing Teoscar Hernández would have been a misstep for the Mets, adding unnecessary redundancy to an already crowded outfield while failing to address the team’s actual roster needs. His declining defensive skills, rising strikeout rate, and draft penalties make him a poor value proposition for a team with World Series aspirations. The Mets’ resources would be better allocated toward securing elite corner infield talent, such as Alex Bregman, or investing in younger, high-upside players.
JackStrawb
The Mets wouldn’t have been signing Teoscar to play the OF. He would have been their DH, only getting time in a corner OF spot to spell Nimmo and Soto, or in the event one of them was injured.
PrincessYuki
Almost 400 strikeouts the past 2 seasons. Teo represents everything that’s wrong with baseball today.
JackStrawb
Right, because groundouts to SS and flyouts to a corner are just so exhilarating.
!!!Reggie Jackson (2,597 career K) Ruined Baseball!!!
… or was it Dave Kingman, who struck out almost 2x as often as the MLB average? (Teo is nowhere close to that.)
As soon as a team’s best starting pitcher began throwing fewer than 400 innings per 112-game season, the game was clearly in irreversible decline.
Jdt8312
It was rumored more than a month ago that Hernandez and the Dodgers had a deal. Just putting this out there, maybe the Mets got in on Teoscar to drive up his price for the Dodgers? You can only defer contracts for so long before it starts affecting what you’ll be able to spend in the future. And if the Mets can help the Dodgers get to that point earlier rather than later, it helps the rest of the league.
MLBTR needs to hire editors
“Exactly” is in the wrong place here: “This isn’t to say that signing Hernandez would’ve been a bargain, exactly, as he would’ve cost the Mets even more…” it should be before “been.”
JackStrawb
The Mets are largely indifferent to Marte as a roster spot. He’s a sunk cost who wasn’t useless in 2024, but was worth 0.0 WAR in 2023-2024 combined, and he’ll be 36 in 2025, suggesting his 104 OPS+ is likely to drop below 100. .
They’ll sign a real DH and move Marte even if they have to eat $19m. He’s just not going to be in the way if they can significantly upgrade (Santander at DH? Could work, and in a pinch you can put him in LF). It’s possible they hang onto Marte until the Deadline and supplant him with a better hitter given they have McNeil as a 5th OFer and have competent defenders in the upper minors they can bring up and get some value from if they can live with a weak bat.
They probably _can_ live with that, given how defense translates from the minors to the majors better than any other facet of the game, and that using someone like Jett Williams as a 5th OFer means he won’t have to get many MLB plate appearances in 2025 if he’s not hitting, particularly with guys like Siri and Taylor ahead of him on the Depth Chart. Jett also means the Mets can occasionally play 3 plus-CFers in the OF and can more readily pinch run as needed on an old team.
The Mets are difficult to read now, particularly given Stearns’ brief track record as GM of a team capable of running and sustaining a huge payroll. Difficult to read, but it’s not difficult to see where they can upgrade:
–Bullpen
–Top of the rotation
–DH
–1B or 3B depending on whether they think Vientos can handle 1B or how much longer they believe he can at least hold serve as one of the worst (but probably not THE worst) 3Bman in MLB.
The Mets may want to move Vientos off the field entirely and plant him at DH for the next 4-5 years for all we know. We just don’t know, and the Mets FO treating everything as a nuclear secret is far more irritating than it is to be countenanced. We also don’t know if the Mets believe Mauricio can handle 3B regularly. His ACL is in good shape and in the beginning of December he resumed ‘baseball activities,’ but does he have the arm for third? The Mets don’t say.
What’s the Mets payroll going to? Who knows, but say it can go as high as $330m. It’s currently at $276.6m for LT purposes acc to Roster Resource. The Mets can easily afford to make Santander a competitive offer to take the DH slot, though at three years they’d better be sure that Nimmo (everything) and Lindor (back) don’t need to rotate through that slot until they’re 35 and 34, respectively in 2028. That’s dicey.
What about Nimmo at 1B? He’d probably be very good there, but 1B is hardly less demanding than LF, and might be moreso if the rumors of plantar fascitis are accurate, while Mauricio / Baty at 3B probably gets the Mets close to 2 WAR from the position (fangraphs has Baty alone at 1.8 fWAR if he starts at 3B), and it leaves Vientos to DH or shift around the IF corners depending on the needs of the day of the post-30 players.
If the Mets think they can get 2 wins from 3B for the price of two pre-arb guys (call it 2m, total), that obviates the need for Bregman, who by contrast would be a 2-win upgrade (fg has him at 4.1 fWAR in 2025) but at the very steep price of a 25m AAV and something like a 7-year commitment.
The Mets would be much better off signing Santander to three years, if they can get him for that, and getting the desired 2-win upgrade at DH instead of the IF, dealing away Marte for a bag of balls and a few million in salary relief. Despite what so many casual fans here believe, no one is giving the Mets a respectable reliever for Marte—the Mets will have to hope someone thinks he’s worth 1/$4m and will take him off their hands with only $15.75m in salary relief, letting the Mets turn around and put that 4m into a reliever.
1/$15m for a DH, Vientos at 1B, Mauricio / Baty at 3B, Ha-Seong Kim at 1/15m and a May 15th return date, and a top-notch arm for the pen. $315m salary, a projectable 91-92 win team. It looks like the Mets can run five above average bats out there, two around 100 OPS+, and two soft spots in the lineup in CF and at 3B.
Enough woolgathering. The ride to the plane is here.
[Exuent]