The Mets’ offseason has thus far revolved around their pursuit of Juan Soto and their attempts to reload a pitching staff full of free agents. Sean Manaea and Jose Quintana are on the open market and Luis Severino has already departed to sign a three-year, $67MM deal with the Athletics. New York has responded by signing Frankie Montas and Clay Holmes to relatively inexpensive contracts, but the team could be looking at further bolstering the rotation with a bigger splash.
Nathan Eovaldi, Nick Pivetta, and Jack Flaherty are three of the names the Mets have shown interest in this winter, according to The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal and Will Sammon. Re-signing Manaea is also still a possibility, as Rosenthal/Sammon note that the Mets remain open to a reunion with the left-hander.
Montas signed a two-year, $34MM contract, while the Mets gave Holmes $38MM over a three-year deal. Given that Eovaldi has a lengthy injury history and is entering his age-35 season, his next contract isn’t likely to surpass three years in length, which fits David Stearns’ preferred method of giving shorter-term contracts to pitchers. MLBTR projected Eovaldi to land a two-year, $44MM contract, though it is easy to imagine Eovaldi landing more from the Mets or another team considering how many pitchers have already landed higher-than-expected paydays this offseason.
Despite his age, Eovaldi has remained a very solid pitcher, and it was just in 2023 that he posted an All-Star season while helping the Rangers win the World Series. The 2024 campaign saw Eovaldi deliver a 3.80 ERA and above-average strikeout and walk rates, and his 170 2/3 IP marks the third-highest innings total of his 13 big league seasons. The right-hander is no stranger to high-pressure championship games in big markets, and seems like a strong fit on a Mets team that has designs on contending for a World Series in 2025.
Flaherty won a ring himself with the Dodgers just this season, capping off a strong bounce-back season that saw him post a 3.17 ERA over 162 combined innings with Los Angeles and Detroit. The righty is now looking to translate that platform year into a big contract, and since he just turned 29, Flaherty is also younger than Eovaldi, Manaea (33 in February), and Pivetta (32 in February). However, that also means Flaherty is seeking a longer-term deal, with Rosenthal and Sammon figuring a contract of between four and six years.
MLBTR’s projection split that difference with a five-year, $115MM prediction for Flaherty’s next contract. It remains to be seen if the Mets would be willing to meet that price, or if Stearns is wary about giving such a deal to a pitcher who battled injuries and ineffectiveness from 2020-23. This isn’t to say that the Mets president of baseball operations is entirely adverse to longer-term contracts, though Stearns’ chief tactic has been to seek out “the next Flaherty” in the sense of looking for promising arms with bounce-back potential.
Re-signing Manaea is perhaps the most comfortable option given the Mets’ pre-existing familiarity with the veteran left-hander. There was plenty to like about Manaea’s first season in Queens, and he chose to capitalize on his strong season by opting out of the final year of his contract (worth $13.5MM) with the Mets to pursue a bigger deal in free agency. Interestingly, Rosenthal and Sammon write that at least one other team interested in Manaea has discussed the possibility of a four-year contract, which would be a bold commitment to a pitcher of Manaea’s age and somewhat inconsistent track record.
The qualifying offer is also a factor in the Mets’ pursuits. Eovaldi and Flaherty weren’t eligible for the QO and thus no compensation is attached to their services. Manaea and Pivetta both turned down qualifying offers from the Mets and Red Sox, so their next teams will have to surrender some form of draft or international bonus pool capital in order to sign either pitcher. This wouldn’t be an obstacle for the Mets in re-signing Manaea since teams don’t have to give up any compensation to re-sign their own player, but signing Pivetta would cost the Mets $1MM in int’l bonus money plus their second- and fifth-highest selections in the 2025 draft.
Boston’s decision to issue Pivetta was seen as a bit of a surprise, and it could be that being attached to a compensation package might dull Pivetta’s market to some extent. Pivetta is a durable pitcher with quality secondary metrics, yet he was more solid than outstanding over his four-plus seasons with the Red Sox, posting a 4.29 ERA over 633 innings. This might not be enough of a resume to move the Mets to give up two picks and $1MM from their bonus pool, especially since New York might already be giving away such a bounty if they sign Soto (another qualified free agent). Signing two QO-rejecting players would cost the Mets $2MM in pool money, as well as their second, third, fifth, and sixth-highest picks in the 2025 draft class, so it doesn’t seem like the Mets would add onto Soto with another qualified free agent.
Maneaa is a proven winner. Sign him.
Eovaldi is the proven winner. Let’s sign both Eovaldi and Manaea, then deal Blackburn.
Let’s sign neither of them and go after Burns and/or Fried.
Must be why he blew up for 5 ER in 3.2 IP in his most important start of the year on 9/27/24, and why he put up a FIP over 4 in his last 9 starts—then gave up 10 ER in 19 IP in the 2o24 postseason.
Now that’s clutchiness.
Between montas, Holmes and this. Are they out on burnes and fried?
I always thought Stearns would be in in Burnes since they have history together in Milwaukee. Maybe though Burnes is going high and long, and the Mets are waiting to just jump in and exceed.
Never were in. Stearns doesn’t sign aging pitchers to long term deals.
@Fenway 1 Could be, but even if they sign one of the four starters featured in the article they’re still around 45 starts short of 162.
The alternative to signing a fourth starter this offseason is to use Megill for the 15 starts he might come up with, and hope a minor leaguer is able to pitch tolerably in the majors in 2025. Still, five aging starters (at 29 Peterson’s the youngest by two years) in a rotation that can really benefit from six starters is a risk.
They need one more, even if they add Eovaldi or Manaea. It would be strange to sign Soto then lack anything like a solid #1 starter.
Better spent that 700M to sign Burnes, Fried and Manaea
you know it’s crazy you say that and yet that would be the best move for the team as a whole. You can find the offense elsewhere but imagine having a rotation like that?!!!!
You can find 158 wRC+ everywhere?
Well, next winter both Vlad and Tucker will be FA, and both have shown that ability. I think no chance they extend with their clubs when they see how much everyone is overpaying in FA now.
Tucker resigns. Glad leaves only because he doesn’t like Toronto, not because there’s a lack of money.
Idk if he will, the temptation of how much money they can make is very high, and Houston does not give out contracts more than 5-6 years at very high money, which it would take to retain Tucker. I’m thinking he leaves.
I think this one they will, otherwise there will be a revolt in Houston. They go as he does. And especially if Bregman signs elsewhere.
The 700 million shouldn’t be viewed in that way. If Soto is allegedly set to get 50 million per year, and the Mets, or any team for that matter, misses out on him, it would be using that 50 million elsewhere.
That’s also assuming ownership likes the idea of allocating all of that Soto money elsewhere. They could view him as a unicorn talent.
As a Mets fan, I’d pass on Soto and get Eovaldi and try to keep Manaea and Alonso.
They also need to address the pen, particularly with a lefty.
Alonso is declining exactly as a RHH’ing bad defensive 1Bman turning 30 is expected to decline by every projection system in existence.
It’s entirely possible after his last three seasons of 3.8, 2.8, and 2.1 fWAR that he never again has a productive season, but people want to sign him for something like six years?
Very few like the idea I’ve floated which is to trade for Arraez for 1b. His defense is bad, but not to the point of hurting a team that much. And they could use someone who doesn’t have a lot of swing and miss, someone with high avg and obp. It only works if they sign Soto as well though since Arraez has no power.
When his shoulder is healthy, he’s a 3 WAR player and at 27 perhaps upside for more.
Arraez’s D @ 1B actually grades out pretty well. Although in limited sample size.
Maybe for a year or two then you have old declining pitchers locked up long term.
But sometimes that’s just the price you pay for that chip. Flags fly forever.
What flag has ever flown forever?
How about a low AAV multi-year deal for the unheralded Astro’s starter Jose Urquidy. Innings eater, doesn’t walk anybody, his age 30 season
He’s been hurt, not unheralded.
He was the five or six in the Astros rotation mix when everybody is healthy, which hasn’t been the case for a couple years.
But I always liked Urquidy, thought he kind of flew under the radar as a quality starter.
I like Cal Quantrill too, think he is a good option for a team. And Michael Soroka. Three starters I like that could be values.
Cohen’s Luxury tax is going to be insane , but I feel that he is exactly what this organization needed , a real Mets fan and not just two idiots more involved in real estate than winning ! Sign em all Stevie!!!!
Do we even know if the Mets are going over $241m if they miss on Soto?
Stevie Cohen’s beautiful money.
Braves need to jump on Eovaldi or Manaea before the Mets.
Schwellenbach and Lopez have saved the Braves and they’ll get Strider back. I’d worry about Sale staying healthy but if Strider returns and is effective and Sale is healthy, the Braves starter pitching will be as solid.
I’d resign Charlie Morton and slot him at the five, Morton can give them good innings and Grant Holmes was good in spots last season.
Braves need to find an OF who can hit and a DH.
Forgot about Ozuna, unsure how, I walked across the entire state of Georgia last summer, from Brunswick to Ringgold, listening to Braves games. To be honest, I had something else on my mind while finishing up the previous post (bathroom) and hastily finished the sentence.
As a Met fan, I’ve been wanting Manaea and Eovaldi bc I assumed they weren’t going for Burnes or Fried. Plus I like the shorter contract commitments.
Soto is a great great hitter, but he lacks other abilities to command so much money. The age is tantalizing, but I would hold tight another year and get Tucker for about half the price.
Tucker has some speed, is still relatively young, and isn’t too far removed from Soto from a power/contact standpoint. He would be such a better value.
Agree, he’s also more of a sb threat. And it won’t require a 15/730 type of deal. Sure, it will be a lot since he’ll only be 28 (10/425?). Either way, I like the idea of waiting for him and having to commit to much less money.
By then, Marte is completely off the books as well.
Tucker would be signed for his age 29 season since he turns 28 in about a month. Still think Soto is the better option including offensive production and how that ages vs sb ability aging…. and especially factoring in injury history.
Kyle Tucker at 29 for something around $350 million?
If you can get him for 60% of Soto contract and a shorter commitment at three years older, not bad
Yeah! Stay away from Soto! Go get some good pitching. Like, 3 of em. Fried or Burnes, One from this group, maybe Eovaldi, and a pitching lab project who doesn’t cost as much as Holmes did.
I’m a Yankees fan. Hal better get Soto!
Seems odd for the Mets to be going after one of these four. rather than, say, Max Fried. A rotation of Senga, Peterson, Eovaldi, Holmes, Montas, who probably fall 45 starts short of a full season’s worth, doesn’t look like a postseason rotation, though if the Mets beef up their OF and one IF spot they’ll be an old, expensive team with a solid shot at getting to the postseasion.
Senga will be 32 rather than 30, as he was in his brilliant first year in the US. His durability is highly uncertain. Is it possible the plan is to add someone like Eovaldi AND Fried or Burnes or the lesser Buehler? There isn’t a minor leaguer who’s a good bet to come up and give the Mets 20-25 usable starts in 2025, and their $125m nucleus is another year older, at 31, 31, 32, 32, 33, and 36. It’s difficult to see how a rotation of the first five pitchers listed (ages 32, 29, 35, 32, and 32) gets the Mets to the World Series.
Mets rotation right now should not entice Soto at all, and Mets need to bring back Alonso before Soto signs. Soto needs to see the Mets all completely all in to win. Signing Montas and Holmes means nothing to Soto.
Maybe Fried has let them know he doesn’t have interest. I keep hearing he has more interest in being on the west coast nearer to where he grew up. I do like him a lot and wish they’d sign him, I just accepted it won’t happen.
I also get the sense they’re going for two of these four – e.g.., Manaea and Eovaldi – and going with a 6-man rotation or like you said in another post… trying to pull together 162 starts any way they can.
@Ma4170 Ah, I didn’t know that about Fried. Thanks. That changes things. Yes, two of those four makes a lot of sense.
Even if Fried preferred the west coast. No player agent would let it out and miss the chance to play teams against each other for more money etc.
@ JackStrawb I’d say its likely that the intent (not plan) is to sign more than just one of these four, whether that means two of these, or one of these and someone else not mentioned in the article. The Mets have been connected to Buehler in previous pieces.
Not sure why everyone is so intent in believing that there is a (as in one) ‘plan’. Stearns has shown himself to be fluid and respond/pivot as market conditions evolve. And I’m certain any ‘plan’ would change course significantly depending on whether or not Soto signs with them.
One albatross contract per team only, please
Mets should sign pivetta & eovaldi to 2 yr deals with option for 3rd yr based on IP
Mets need an ace. I love Senga, but he’s best as your number 2. Or co ace with say Flaherty. Eovaldi and Pivetta are good, but a click behind those two. Still they’re well above Montas and Holmes–who aren’t better than some of their incumbents.
I still find it a bit shocking they aren’t going all in on Burnes. He’d be perfect there.
What has Flaherty ever done to earn the title of “co-ace”? One good, full season in the last five years.
I can imagine Eovaldi could be holding out for a 3rd year. I’m guessing his offers have all been two and maybe an option. Three guaranteed years might seal the deal if anyone is interested in that at his age.
Following the Mets minor league system will remind us that Brandon Sproat looks to be very close (like 2025 close) and could be in the rotation right out of spring training. If they want to give him more time in triple A then he’ll be with the big club by the Allstar Break. Big arm and really good stuff.
Not saying the Mets should put the season on a prospect, I’m saying Stearns loves to give prospects a chance to thrive.
I can see Clay Holmes holding a rotation spot till Sproat is ready, then Holmes goes to the pen. If Clay is doing better than expected you have a great problem. Either way, if Sproat continues last years trajectory he will be in the Mets rotation at some point this season.
“We’re in on EVERYBODY !” Starting to sound like Bosox.
@ The biggest troll
I thought so too, then I got to witness 3 different rotations in 3 years but 2 playoff appearances in 3 years. Not bad, coming from the lolMets… I’ll take that all day.