Latest On Josh Naylor

10:36pm: Adam Jude of the Seattle Times reports that while the Mariners and Guardians have indeed discussed Naylor, it’s not expected that Cleveland will deal him to Seattle after offloading the Gimenez contract. That aligns with Lloyd’s earlier reporting that Cleveland seemed increasingly likely to hold Naylor.

1:26pm: As the Mariners search for first base upgrades this winter, they’ve had some talks with the Guardians about Josh Naylor, per Jon Morosi of MLB Network. There’s no indication the two parties are in any sort of advanced negotiations, but the fit is a natural one for an M’s club looking to improve its offense and a Guardians squad that has been open to offers on Naylor and outfielder Lane Thomas as they enter their final seasons of club control.

Naylor, 27, is projected by MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz to earn $12MM this coming season before reaching free agency next winter. He’s fresh off a career-high 31 homers and a .243/.320/.456 batting line (118 wRC+) with a 9.2% walk rate and just a 16.6% strikeout rate. The Mariners have been vocal over the past year-plus about wanting to scale back on their teamwide strikeout rate. Adding power and simultaneously reducing strikeout rate are often at odds with one another, but Naylor is the type of bat who can help them achieve both goals simultaneously.

A trade of Naylor for a Cleveland club that just re-signed Shane Bieber and is clearly intent on contending in 2025 might seem counterproductive at first glance, but the perennial tightrope walk of trading quality veterans for young talent while still trying to field a winning club is nothing new for the Guards. They just unloaded Andres Gimenez and his contract in what amounted to a three-team trade bringing hard-throwing righty Luis Ortiz to Cleveland from Pittsburgh. That dropped their expected payroll to around $97MM, per RosterResource. Shedding Naylor would scale that back to $85MM while opening time for Kyle Manzardo at first base (and perhaps creating more room for some smaller-scale free agent additions).

At the same time, it should be noted that a trade of Naylor isn’t a foregone conclusion. The Athletic’s Jason Lloyd wrote recently that he’d gotten the sense a trade of the slugging first baseman was becoming less likely, as the Guards weren’t impressed with anything offered up by other clubs. (A single text or phone call can change that, of course.) Understandably, Cleveland isn’t going to move a player of Naylor’s ability just to shed payroll; they’d need to feel they’re getting legitimate value in return — especially since with a season comparable to his 2022-24 showings, a then-28-year-old Naylor will be a qualifying offer candidate next offseason.

For the Mariners, Naylor would provide a boost to a club that saw Justin Turner reach free agency at season’s end. Turner was the club’s primary first baseman down the stretch last year after a deadline trade bringing him to Seattle. The M’s have Luke Raley as an option at first base, but he could also mix into the outfield and at designated hitter. Prospect Tyler Locklear is ready for a big league look, but a postseason hopeful like the Mariners might not want to just hand first base to an unproven 24-year-old who posted league-average numbers in Triple-A last season and slashed .156/.224/.311 with a 41% strikeout rate in his first 49 MLB plate appearances.

The M’s also have interest in bringing either Turner or veteran Carlos Santana back to Seattle. (Santana played with the M’s in 2023.) The team’s top priority at the moment seems to be upgrading at first base, then adding help at either third or second base — likely the former. In-house options like Dylan Moore, Ryan Bliss and (eventually) top prospect Cole Young could factor in at second base if the end result is upgrading at both corners.

Naylor’s projected salary likely fits within the Mariners’ reported budget — about $15MM to spend, give or take, per Adam Jude of the Seattle Times — but probably doesn’t leave room for another notable addition. The Mariners would surely love to find a way to unload the contracts of Mitch Haniger $15.5MM in 2025) and/or Mitch Garver ($12.5MM in 2025), but either would be a tall task. The presence of those cumbersome contracts, coupled with a second offseason headlined by a tight budget from ownership, make another round of trades from the ever-active Seattle front office likelier than a series of free-agent splashes aimed at once again revamping an offense that has struggled to produce in a highly pitcher-friendly setting.