Latest On Nolan Arenado

It has been about two weeks since Nolan Arenado used his no-trade clause to veto a proposed deal that would’ve seen the veteran third baseman go from the Cardinals to the Astros.  The next step in the Cards’ efforts to trade Arenado remain unclear, as The Athletic’s Will Sammon and Katie Woo report that “there has been minimal traction on Arenado’s front since the Astros deal fell through.”

The lack of activity isn’t exactly surprising given how many factors complicate any potential deal.  The Rockies are covering $10MM of the remaining $74MM owed to Arenado over the last three years of his contract, and some deferred money involved in the contract reportedly makes Arenado’s remaining salary worth $60MM in present-day money.  That’s still a big chunk of change that the Cardinals are looking to mostly shed from their payroll, leaving a fairly limited number of possible suitors who have both payroll space and a need at third base.

To the latter point, Arenado has indicated a willingness to change positions, as his agent Joel Wolfe told reporters during the Winter Meetings.  Arenado is ultimately in the driver’s seat in these negotiations due to his no-trade protection, and past reports have indicated that he would okay a deal to the Phillies, Mets, Red Sox, Angels, Dodgers, or Padres, though it appears this list of preferred destinations is somewhat fluid.

In fact, Houston was on an initial version of that list, as Woo and Chandler Rome wrote earlier this month.  The Astros’ trade of Kyle Tucker just a few days before the proposed Arenado trade reportedly gave him pause about going to Houston, which is why he invoked his no-trade clause at the time.  However, the door wasn’t entirely closed on a potential deal, as Sammon and Woo write that Arenado “was willing to revisit the Astros after further clarity developed in his market (namely, Alex Bregman signing).”

The Astros ended up moving on from both Arenado and Bregman, as they instead signed Christian Walker as their new everyday first baseman, thus pushing Isaac Paredes (acquired in the Tucker deal with the Cubs) across the diamond as the new regular third baseman.  Even with his former team now out of the running, Bregman is still garnering plenty of interest, as such clubs as the Tigers, Blue Jays, Red Sox, Phillies, and Mets have all been linked to him this winter.  Reports have been somewhat mixed about the Yankees’ interest in either Arenado or Bregman, as the primary hold-up in Arenado’s case being New York’s unwillingness to take on the bulk of his remaining salary.

The overlap between Bregman’s market and Arenado’s reported trade preference list is likely why Arenado’s situation hasn’t much changed in the last couple of weeks, as it might take Bregman signing to spark renewed interest in teams returning to trade talks with the Cardinals.  If Arenado can’t be traded at all, St. Louis could simply bring him back for the coming season and perhaps explore deals later — even as early as the trade deadline, as a hot start from Arenado could help erase any worries a suitor might have about his average offensive numbers from the last two seasons.

Keeping Arenado even for the short term doesn’t solve the Cardinals’ desire to cut payroll, however, so Sammon and Woo write the Cards would then likely put a better emphasis on trading a starting pitcher to save some money.  Sonny Gray has indicated he isn’t going to waive his own no-trade protection and Andre Pallante is still in his arbitration-eligible years, leaving Miles Mikolas (owed $16MM in 2025), Steven Matz ($12.5MM) or Erick Fedde ($7.5MM) as the top trade chips.  It seems likely that St. Louis would be open to moving Mikolas or Matz with or without an Arenado trade, though Sammon and Woo note that the Cardinals would prefer to keep Fedde until closer to the deadline, if they move him at all.