Right-hander Corbin Burnes entered the offseason as the consensus top rotation option available in free agency, but following last night’s reported agreement between the Yankees and Max Fried he now stands as the only ace-level pitcher available on the open market this winter. That should put Burnes in strong position to exceed MLBTR’s seven-year, $200MM prediction for the righty. While Boston reportedly put together a formal offer for Corbin Burnes yesterday, a separate report from Mark Feinsand of MLB.com characterized the Blue Jays and Giants as the “most aggressive” teams in their pursuit of Burnes and went on to suggest that the Red Sox “appear hesitant” to spend at the level necessary to land the righty.
Toronto, who Feinsand notes is considered the “favorite” to land Burnes, have been involved on a number of top free agents this winter and made their first major moves of the winter yesterday by agreeing to terms with right-hander Yimi Garcia and trading infielder Spencer Horwitz and outfield prospect Nick Mitchell to land infielder Andres Gimenez and righty Nick Sandlin from the Guardians. While those moves have helped to address the club’s bullpen after they non-tendered Jordan Romano last month and bolster their infield mix, one area of the roster that has not yet been addressed is the rotation.
The Jays dealt lefty Yusei Kikuchi away at the trade deadline, face Chris Bassitt departing in free agency next winter, and saw Kevin Gausman take a step back last year as he enters his mid-30s. Given those realities, it’s hardly a surprise that the club would hope to add a top-of-the-rotation arm to its mix. For a club that’s been involved in top free agents ranging from Shohei Ohtani and Yoshinobu Yamamoto last winter to Juan Soto and Max Fried this year, it’s hardly a surprise that they’re being aggressive on Burnes with the other top-of-the-market players rapidly coming off the board.
As for the Giants, the club has a clear hole at the front of their rotation after southpaw Blake Snell departed for their archrival Dodgers in free agency last month. Much like the Blue Jays, San Francisco has been deeply involved in the upper levels of free agency in the past several years. While most of that occurred under former president of baseball operations Farhan Zaidi, Buster Posey kicked his tenure as head decision-maker for the Giants off with a bang over the weekend when he signed shortstop Willy Adames to a seven-year deal. While supplementing their young core with a top-flight starter alongside their twin investments in Adames and Matt Chapman would make plenty of sense, rumors percolated last month that the club could look to scale back payroll this winter, and it’s difficult to imagine them being able to achieve that goal while also bringing Burnes into the fold. Given that reality, it’s perhaps no surprise that sources told Feinsand they were “skeptical” of San Francisco’s odds of outbidding Toronto if the Jays are determined in their pursuit of Burnes.
Perhaps the most interesting piece of Feinsand’s report, however, is the apparent pessimism regarding the Red Sox as a suitor for Burnes. Boston brass haven’t been shy about their plans to be aggressive this winter, particular in pursuit of front-of-the-rotation arms. With Fried and Snell now off the market, Burnes is the last clearly ace-level pitcher available in free agency this winter. Feinsand suggests that the Red Sox could pursue a reunion with right-hander Nick Pivetta in free agency if they miss out on Burnes, though Pivetta’s 4.29 ERA in parts of five seasons with the Red Sox is hardly a front-of-the-rotation level resume.
Other possible solutions Feinsand discussed are right-hander Walker Buehler, whom the Red Sox were previously reported to have interest in, as well as trade market options like White Sox southpaw Garrett Crochet. The trade market also seems to be a potential fallback plan for the incumbent Orioles if they miss out on reuniting with Burnes. A report from MLB Network’s Jon Morosi earlier today described Baltimore’s hopes of re-signing the star righty as fading and noted that the Orioles have interest in Padres right-hander Dylan Cease in the event that Burnes ultimately lands elsewhere. Cease is not currently seen as likely to move, but the Padres are reportedly exploring his market with the Red Sox also known to be among his potential suitors. Turning back to Boston, Pete Abraham of the Boston Globe reported that the Red Sox “seem confident” about their ability to land a top pitcher this winter, although that could mean trading for a player like Crochet or Cease rather than signing Burnes.
Jays should sign burnes and one of Flaherty or Buhler and the use Bassitt as a trade asset to land a bat
Flaherty is somewhat realistic.
Chris bassitt as a trade asset? coming off a bad season with one year left?
what do you think you are getting for him that makes a difference.
also if the Jays get him, that along with the Gimenez move tell you they are not landing a big bat in FA and they are hoping to win games with d and pitching. the same philosophy that failed them the last two years.
It’s hitting me now. While it’s most likely wishful thinking on my part, perhaps Boston’s negative attitude is a ruse. Ownership knows like when they overpaid for Devers, the fan base is not happy.
Salary relief for a start. I also assume at some point in 2025 that Bo is getting traded.
Not all trades need to be major league asset for major league asset
you mentioned a bat, not a minor league bat. may want to be clearer next time.
Many ways to land a bat in baseball. Free agents exist pal. Not my concern that you don’t use your brain to think outside the box
again saying “use bassit as a trade asset to land a bat”… your words not mine, now is supposed to imply (based on your continuing” that he is a trade asset in that they will get salary relief and then use the money in FA????
reaching pal. take your L and move on.
Blue Jays management is again doing nothing , if players hate this management as much as s most fans do and current team player no wonder no one wants to sign here ,
These guys have destroyed this franchise and the minor league system. What can they prove to anyone that wants to win with what they are going to put on field again
They’re going to end up watching Vladdy walk out the door too when he should’ve been a forever Blue Jay, possibly cruising to the HOF.
Maybe the Jay’s should add ppl who can score runs, defense and pitching doesn’t win games in the AL east.
I mean, the Rays continue to prove that theory wrong every year
The rays have scored the 9th most runs in MLB since 2020. They usually have a bit a both hitting/pitching.
Jay’s team era was bottom 5th
Pitching pitching and more pitching
It’s not the pitching , it’s the line up they put out day after day that forces the pitchers
To be nervous if they give up 1 run the game is usually over .
I think SF Giants will sign Burnes. Something about their M.O. and his make up fit together.
Boston feels like free agent poison right now, along the lines of the way some guys look at the Yankees and feel they aren’t built in the way that certain free agents are comfortable with in the near future.
I dunno- I just think Burnes lands in S.F. if Toronto doesn’t lure him- and it’ll be massive. Like 7 years/$236.25M or something along those lines.
.25 you say? Care to be a little more specific? 🙂
$33.75M per season. I said what I said, I calculated how I calculated, them’s the numbahs.
Burnes is going to start with minimum $37-40 million avv over 8 yrs but ill bet that he tops Yammato $325 deal
Yeah- that contract might wind up looking closer to 8 years/$320M or more.
yeah Burnes is not getting $40m per.
$35-37m I will give you
Lets see…. 33.75 + 35 + 37 + 40 divided by four = 36.475
You guys… we did it. We figured out his true value. $36.475M a year for 7.5 years, or 7.5 years/$273,281,250 and Burnes returns to Free Agency at the 2032 All Star break.
We just solved baseball, you guys.
I get the sarcasm, but I’d actually love to see half year contracts. imagine the excitement brought back to the all Star week if a player like Burnes was available.
Haha- I think it literally takes too much time to hammer our contract details and numbers and adjust rosters for the game to be able to pull that off, as cool as that would be.
Burnes attended college about 50 miles from SF, and he’s a California native. SF probably knows they have a good shot at him even if they are outbid.
He grew up in Bakersfield, which is 300 miles, so it’s not going to be terribly convenient to pop over there or invite his family. A mild plus but I doubt it’ll make up for being offered $5M more elsewhere.
He went to St Mary’s College which is right outside of SF — less than 25 miles away.
I don’t see any info to suggest any of his family lives near St Mary’s. I suppose he could have college buddies he’d like to see in the stands when he pitches, but I’m skeptical that’ll make a guy pass up millions of extra dollars.
Pass up whose millions of dollars? It seems the only team that may intend right now to outbid SF is Toronto. And does he really want to play in Canada for a team in the same division as the Yanks, Sox and Orioles for maybe several million more than a team in his home state? And if the Dodgers, Mets or Yanks had outbid SF or Toronto then I don’t think the baseball media would be talking about the Giants and Blue Jays leading the bidding. My instinct is telling me Toronto has made him the best offer and he’s unsure about playing there. And maybe SF has made the second best offer, and he’s trying to get them to go higher. But also he could be waiting until Sasaki to sign to see if the market changes to send renewed interest his way, pushing the market higher via the LA and the NY teams. I doubt he goes back to Baltimore, but he could be thinking the O’s are still on the table too because the team is poised to get better, especially with him still on the team, and he seemingly had a good experience there. Overall I think he’s waiting to see if the market changes once Sasaki is signed, but if SF makes the best or second best offer — maybe even the third or fourth best offer — he’s possibly going there because his family will be comfortable closer to home and because SF has a chance to compete again soon, especially with him on the team.
I’d make note that a team with money that is lead by a former pitcher is hesitant to sign arguably the offseasons top pitcher (but was in on fried and Snell).
might tell you breslow’s concern for Burnes holding up???
More likely tells you the owner is a cheap tightwad who is not willing to pay market value for players.
He tried to lowball Pedro back in the day, he tried to lowball Ellsbury, he tried to lowball Lester, he tried to lowball Betts and Bogaerts, he’s tried to lowball every free agent on the market the last 3 winters.
Only reason Pedroia and Ortiz stuck around was because the former was willing to give a little bit of a discount and he knew if he ever let the latter leave town he’d be paraded through the streets of Boston like Mussolini after the war.
Every big market rate extension they’ve given that I can remember, they gave up on early – Beckett, Gonzalez, Crawford, Castillo, Sandoval, Price, Sale – all those dudes got given away to escape their contracts early. Manny Ramirez would be the one exception but they didn’t sign him and did try multiple times to trade him. Or in Castillo’s case they just hid him in the minors forever. To be fair those were mostly horrid contracts, but that also says something about their instinct on this front. They’ve been dead wrong on both ends – they’ve been unwilling to pay to keep the guys who should’ve been kept, and more than happy to throw gobs of money at guys they shouldn’t have gone anywhere near.
So if signing Burnes makes them uncomfortable, I feel emboldened to say he will be worth damn near every penny he gets.
Boston and the Cubbies are in similar situations with their owners.
Whatever man. Pedro got overpaid and everyone knew it at the time. Ellsbury got overpaid and bit the Yankees for it; Bogaerts got overpaid and it looks like he’s going to bite the Padres for it. Lester was involved in fair negotiations but they couldn’t reach a deal and then he had a career best season which greatly shifted his fair market value but then people acted like the prior offers went with that new market instead of the old one (and then he got overpaid by a team that really really needed him).
Betts is the only one you listed that even MIGHT have a fair “lowball” argument to him, and we don’t have remotely the full story there. You’re just pretending to know more than you so you can spew venom.
“So if signing Burnes makes them uncomfortable, I feel emboldened to say he will be worth damn near every penny he gets.”
Ironically, given the evidence you cited, if Boston feels uncomfortable with where the bidding has gone for Burnes than there is every reason to figure that Boston has that right. It says EVERYTHING that you would “feel” the opposite of what the evidence points to, but then again that’s pretty much par for the course with internet negativity.
Both things can be true. Yes, it is fair to say Jacoby and Bogey got overpaid. That is immaterial to the part where the Red Sox failed to retain them because they insisted on trying to underpay them.
If my memory serves me correctly, they tried to get Jacoby for 5 years and under $100 million. He was solidly a 4-5 WAR player when healthy. Sure, maybe 7 years and $153+ million was a bit rich, but that’s also with the benefit of hindsight. He was worth at least a 5/$125 at the time and Boston’s offer never came near it.
Most famously, they tried to get Bogey locked up for 4/$90 million (!!!!!!!!!!!!!). The only reason the Padres had the chance to overpay him so ridiculously to begin with was because they waited until the Winter Meetings to present him with a serious offer of 6/$162, a perfectly fair offer that would’ve fallen right in line with his production. Had they offered something similar to that from the jump, San Diego never would’ve even gotten to make a phone call to him.
Pedro signed a 4/$53 deal with the Mets – $7 million less per year than his contract that ran through 2004 – when the Red Sox wouldn’t go past 2/$25. Per Fangraphs’ valuation model, his 2005 season alone was worth almost $29 million, and despite his injuries they still got $48 million worth of value out of his contract making him pretty fairly paid in the grand scheme of things. If not for the injuries he would’ve been underpaid, and the Sox were happy to let him go because they wanted to underpay him even more drastically. And for all the hand wringing over Pedro’s health, let us not forget the guy they replaced him with, Matt Clement at 3/$25, pitched just 256 innings for the Red Sox over 2 seasons before he was out of baseball entirely. The Mets got close to 500 innings out of Pedro
And you are wrong again on Lester. Lester himself said he would’ve taken 5 years and $120 million, but they wouldn’t offer it. They saved for him probably the most insulting underpay of the bunch – FOUR YEARS FOR SEVENTY MILLION. The sheer incompetence to waste their time piddling around with such unserious offers is what allowed him to hit the market and go to the Cubs for 6 years and $155 million. By the way, per Fangraphs, over the life of that contract, Lester was worth over $134 million. John Henry’s cheap ass insisted he was worth half that.
To make such ridiculous, unfounded arguments that are verifiably false, I have to ask: do you belong to the Red Sox ownership group by any chance?
Giants need Posey to pull off the double miracle and get Burnes. Would be easy to see the team on a longer term positive trajectory and puts less pressure on the young arms to step up immediately.
He’s going to the O’s, folks. They mysteriously dropped off as an interested party. Elias is leak-proof.
Gonna laugh my ass off.
Doubt it, but it would be pretty cool.
I am running on pure hopeium.
The Orioles are still a cheap team that won’t pay.
They may not believe Burnes is worth the contract he’ll get. His strikeout totals are way down and he’s worst in the league at holding runners. I think the O’s go after a starter in a trade and possibly pursue someone like Buhler or a veteran like Verlander or Scherzer.
Well….whomever signs him…they better have a catcher that can help Burnsy hold the runners….otherwise the base Steelers will be off to the races
He is a good pitcher though…he has issues holding runners
Someone recently read an article on mlb . Com
Lefty_Orioles_Fan: The STEELERS play football in Pittsburgh. Aggressive baserunners are STEALERS.
Patrick Bailey can throw out runners with the best of ‘em.
Breslow and the Red Sox better put together the biggest offer here. Make him turn it down to play somewhere else. If they offer 8/250-260 that ought to be enough unless someone goes completely mental. It’s overpay but you gotta do what gotta do to sign impact pitching.
Eight years and he’ll spend 2-1/2 on the IL over that time. Pass.
So far, my two Insider Mailbag questions went unanswered, which is totally okay, but they now seem really pertinent! The first was about whether last year’s lower than expected free agent spending influenced this year’s MLB Trade Rumor’s contract predictions. The second, and this was prior to these contracts, was what would have to happen for Burnes to get a $300 million dollar deal? Thoughts?
add a 9th year or deferred money
I’m not sure, now. It Fried can get over 200, Burnes seems destined to get pretty close to 300.
Burnes is going to the Mets.
Hmm, Jays sign Burnes and then Walker for 1B, move Vlad to 3rd, sign a bounceback candidate like Max Kepler for LF who is 25hr a year capable and elite defensively and you have gold glovers all over the field. CF, LF, 2B, 1B etc
Dream on maybe if some other people are running this organization not Atkin or Shapiro those guys cannot do anything right , we’re has the minor league system and talent on major league roster disappeared too with these guys at the helm
The Red Sox are hesitant to pay anything over $25 per game for any player. John Henry has short hands and deep pockets.
Its called ingenious
Good ol’ Boras…….trying to get RSox fans riled up with the “appear hesitant” leak to reporters. Good luck to Giants-seems like a good fit and less of a pressure cooker if close enough on $ not to want to go to Toronto.
Hes going to the west coast, new babies and such.
Said it before. The Red Sox should stop b.s.-ing their fans. Get Tanner Scott, Flaherty and Teoscar. That would please most of their followers.
@letitbelowenstein
Sox aren’t planning to compete in 2025. Teams do this all the time to keep the fanbase on their toes. Ultimately, you’re going to get some dumpster dives and possibly a 2nd string FA signing.
York..Will you still say the same if they sign a guy like bhueler or flaherty and trade for a pitcher like crochet or cease? ..not saying its going to happen but passing judgement so early seems shortsighted after thier most recent comments at the start of the offseason..
Technically they have lost out on 2 players …soto who nobody thought they would be in on in the first place..and fried…thats literally it..so maybe too early to say they arent competing unless you have some real inside info you want to share?
@Poolhalljunkies
I will. The Sox aren’t going to be competitive this year. Leadership doesn’t have the plans. They’re building for the future.
Lol you sure?
crochet to the sox… so
Teo’s ask is thru the roof now. Thanks Soto. Sox outfield is set anyway, need RH bat elsewhere like 3rd 2nd? Or trade 2 OFs for pitching then Teo for a gazillion $$?
Yeah Teoscar Hernandez was looking at around 3 years/$60M but with these bevy of deals he’s probably quite reasonably going to be asking for like 4 years/$100M minimum if not 5 years/$150M at this point. Those are very different commitments than 3 years/$60M.
No they shouldn’t, lol.
after being rumoured for Soto, fried, Snell and Burnes? it would not
Red Sox “appear hesitant” to spend at the level necessary to land the righty.
I am shocked, SHOCKED!!!! to find a team with the highest ticket prices in baseball, well under the luxury tax and has all the money in the world refuses to get a guy they actually need. Another season of ‘full throttle;.
just got crochet
This is not going well for Boston.
I know Posey is not Zaidi but I’m just not optimistic about the Giants going 7-8 years on a pitcher. I think the Blue Jays especially are just more willing to give out a massive contract to a pitcher than the Giants
Normally I would agree, but Posey said that Burnes reminds him of Bumgarner, and I cannot imagine him saying something like that unless they are all in.
Yeah this is also feeling kind of reminiscent of Snell last year in I just don’t think there’s a ton of suitors left for him now. Blue Jays and Giants have been publicly linked and make a lot of sense while I still think the Mets make sense and I refuse to ever completely count out the Dodgers
Angry comment about Red Sox lack of spending,
Threat to cancel NESN.
Hatred expressed towards John Henry.
Sarcastic use of “Full Throttle”
The Sox will make an offer that is one year and $30mm short, this way they can say, “see fans, we were in on him”.
Currently the Mets have the worst rotation in baseball. We need 2 guys. Sasaki is not coming here. They need to sign Burnes and sign/trade for one of Buehler, Luis Castillo, Luzardo, Sonny Gray, Alcantara, Crochet, or Woodruff
They’re currently at $248M for 2025. I suppose Cohen could go up to $300M+ and sign/trade for two or three of those guys? I dunno. I’m on the fence as to whether they go all in or not even after the literally historic commitment to Soto.
@TrillionaireTeamOperator The issue with the team is that there are tons of holes still not filled. The rotation is missing 2 all star level pitchers. A bullpen of Diaz, Nunez, Garrett, Genesis Cabrera, and Sein Reid Foley is probably the worst in the NL. I see the Soto deal as a long term solution. In thw short-term, they have a lot of issues. Thats not even including Alonso in this. They have too many overpaid players right now, especially Diaz, Nimmo, McNeil, and Marte that are killing the payroll. They need to find a way to get rid of McNeil and Marte so that they have enough money to fill in their other holes
Yes, I am aware of this. The Mets are one of those weird franchises with a few very highly paid all star MVP candidate players and then the rest of the roster ya always filled out by Quadruple-A guys that make it the MVP guys virtually worthless.
I wonder if acquiring Crochet takes the Sox out of the Burnes market. Personally i would hope not because starting pitching depth was and still is a problem for the Sox and one more big ticket addition couldn’t hurt
sounds like they may be close to acquiring a Mariner’s pitcher. woo or Castillo would be my guess as I can’t see them Moving Gilbert or Miller
I’d be fine with Castillo as a true #1 with Crochet/Giolito/Houck/Bello rounding out the rotation
Burnes going to exceed Cole with the yanks in contract terms ?
Cole was a year younger. Got 9/324. I’d love the G’s to get this guy. Front line starter to pair with Webby now were talking. F it, Go big or go home. 9 years might be the number. Above Cole’s Contact.
Lots of talk in the local media that Burnes has indicated a preference for the Giants. Could be smoke but he is a California kid who went to college in the Bay Area. Don’t know how much stock I read into the cutting payroll comment. Haven’t heard anything about it except the one report.
you mean he could be using the Blue Jays to drive his price up???
why haven’t other players and agents thought of that?
Boras would blow smoke? Ya think?
Meanwhile in Baltimore…