It was reported last month that the Giants were looking to scale back payroll relative to 2024 levels, but that may no longer be the case. Alex Pavlovic of NBC Sports reports that the club initially had planned on focusing more on player development in 2025 while taking a step back in terms of building the major league roster, but now seems to have changed course.
That tracks with the club’s behavior in recent weeks. They just signed shortstop Willy Adames to a seven-year, $182MM deal and are reportedly involved on free agent right-hander Corbin Burnes, who is likely to get an even bigger deal than Adames. At the start of the offseason, MLBTR predicted Burnes for $200MM over seven years, but basically every pitcher has been beating expectations this winter. Max Fried was predicted for $156MM over six years, notably below the prediction for Burnes, but got to $218MM over eight years. As such, it’s fair to expect Burnes to beat Fried’s guarantee by some margin.
If the Giants are ultimately successful in signing Burnes, it would put them pretty close to the competitive balance tax line. RosterResource projects their 2025 number at $208MM right now, which is $33MM below next year’s $241MM base threshold. The Giants crossed the CBT line in 2024 and the planned pay cut likely would have seen them stay below the line in 2025, but a Burnes deal would bridge most of that gap with still other moves likely to follow. In terms of pure dollars, they’re projected for $167MM next year, almost $40MM below their 2024 spending.
The pivot to a more aggressive winter bodes well for their chances in the upcoming season. Adames fills a clear area of need and Burnes would be a huge rotation upgrade if it comes together. In addition to the financial costs of those deals, there would be long-term consequences in terms of draft capabilities. The Giants gave up two picks in 2024, one each for signing Blake Snell and Matt Chapman, since each guy had rejected a qualifying offer. Since the Giants paid the tax in 2024, the penalties are higher this winter. Signing Adames means forfeiting $1MM of international bonus pool space and two picks, their second- and fifth-highest choices in 2025. Like Adames, Burnes also rejected a qualifying offer, which would mean forfeiting another $1MM in pool space and another two picks.
Given that the club’s plan was initially going to involve player development, that’s a notable part of the pivot. However, it’s possible that the Giants simply want to make something happen now, more so than in the future. Their stunning 2021 campaign is their only winning season of the past eight years, so perhaps there’s an appetite to get over the hump sooner rather than later. New president of baseball operations Buster Posey spoke in his introductory press conference about the club getting back into the memory-making business, which has seemingly spurred the club towards shopping at or near the top of free agency.
Whether the Burnes deal can come together or not, the club will also have to consider other moves. In a separate column, Pavlovic notes that veteran first baseman Paul Goldschmidt “has a lot of fans in the organization.” Separately, Andrew Baggarly of The Athletic suggests that Posey might be willing to sign veterans to short-term deals, floating Goldschmidt as a possibility alongside Max Scherzer and Justin Verlander.
Goldschmidt, 37, isn’t too far removed from winning National League Most Valuable Player in 2022 but his performance has declined in the past two years. He slashed .317/.404/.578 for a 175 wRC+ in his MVP season but he fell in 2023 and dropped even further this year. His 2024 batting line finished at .245/.302/.414 for a 100 wRC+, indicating he was exactly league average. His 7.2% walk rate and 26.5% strikeout rate were both career worsts, outside of his 2011 debut.
Whether he can bounce back in 2025 or not is a matter for debate. His age and recent decline don’t bode especially well, but there is arguably some confidence to be found in his strong finish this year. He hit just .230/.291/.373 in the first half of 2024 for an 87 wRC+ but then .271/.319/.480 in the second half for a 120 wRC+.
The Giants don’t strictly have a need at first base, with LaMonte Wade Jr. currently projected as their primary option there. However, they don’t have a clear everyday designated hitter at the moment. Jorge Soler and Michael Conforto got the most DH appearances in 2024 but Soler is now and Angel and Conforto a Dodger. Wilmer Flores could be in the mix there but he was dreadful in 2024 while battling knee problems and it’s unclear how much the Giants expect from him in 2025.
With the current roster construction, using the DH for some outfield overflow might make sense. The club has Heliot Ramos, Jung Hoo Lee and Mike Yastrzemski likely in three outfield spots but with Grant McCray, Jerar Encarnación, Luis Matos, Marco Luciano and others on the roster. Having Goldschmidt and Wade sharing the DH spot and first base would make it hard to find extra at-bats for that group, though perhaps the Giants are willing to live with that in order to take a shot on Goldschmidt for his veteran leadership. He also wouldn’t be able to command a lengthy deal on account of his age and recent performance. MLBTR predicted him for a one-year pact with a $15MM guarantee at the start of the offseason.
There’s also the possibility of signing Goldschmidt and then making Wade available in trades. It was reported last month that Wade and Yastrzemski were indeed available, as well as some other players, though it’s unclear if the club’s recent change in plans has altered the availability of such players.
Wade were surely draw interest from other clubs if the Giants wanted to move him. He doesn’t provide the pop that clubs usually look to get from a first baseman, but he gets on base and isn’t too expensive. Over the past two years, he has drawn a walk in 15% of his 920 plate appearances. Aaron Judge, Juan Soto and Kyle Schwarber were the only big leaguers with at least 900 plate appearances and better walk rates in that time. Wade only hit 25 home runs over those two seasons but his .258/.376/.401 batting line still translated to a strong 120 wRC+.
For his career, Wade has notable platoon splits, with a 120 wRC+ against right-handed pitchers and just a 64 wRC+ against lefties. He was much better against southpaws in 2024, though in a tiny sample of just 43 plate appearances. There are limits in his profile but MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz projects him for a modest $4.7MM salary in his final year of club control.
Goldschmidt seems perfect for a 1 year deal as a bridge player for basically any club in need of a first baseman and some raw power in the line up,
1 year/$15M seems like a no brainer deal for Goldschmidt and an immensely affordable contract for a reliable veteran at any position.
I think he’d be a nice temporary fit for the Giants.
Would be nice to have him mentor Eldridge during spring training as well.
Wade Jr would be a great fit for the Yankees. He’s not fast but gets on base for the big bats.
Bellinger would make sense for the Giants if the Cubs took Yaz. Belli could play 1st and OF.
You’d think Belli or Seiya are as good as gone with the Cubs adding Tucker. Both would be good fits in SF. But their contracts would also take them out of the market for Burnes most likely but it would help hitting and defense.
I don’t know what kind of defender Wade is but Goldschmidt is a good one. He would play the field most days wherever he signs.
Adames should be talking to Burnes as well as they played together for 3 years.
He said at his introductory press conference that he was calling him afterward
I hope they get Goldschmidt and trade Wade or use him off the bench. I love Wade’s game but he just can’t stay healthy.
Spending a lot of money to finish 3rd or 4th
Spending a lot of money to make the Wild card in a deep NL Wedt, like they should.
So they should do nothing? That’ll help them win games…
Third in the NL West isn’t the insult you think it is. Very possible this team is better than another division’s first place.
Agreed. That division is just super competitive.
1-year deal for goldschmidt is likely the yankees’ plan c if they don’t get walker or bellinger
Goldy wouldn’t have nearly the home run totals if if wasn’t for the Giants Big Time Timmy Jim.
He owes us so let’s do it!!
I’d rather get Carlos Santana for one year at half the price of Goldschmidt. He’s a SH, draws walks and is tough to K. Plus he’s an excellent defender having won a GG (and ranking high among Defensive Runs Saved and Outs Above Average).
Would ideally like Walker but don’t see Yankees wanting to give up their 3rd/6th picks and another 1M in international bonus. They already lost 2nd/5th picks and 1M for signing Fried.
I agree on Santana completely. I like him better as a one year option to bridge to Eldridge but Posey loves Goldschmidt and remembers him as a very tough rival so I think sentiment may dictate that decision a little bit if it does transpire.
Goldy great mentor for Eldridge, Santana similiar to Wade so meh.
Get Burnes please he’s a west coaster. Go Giants! Never settle, Posey at the helm I like it.
One small clarification: a CBT payor loses $1m (instead of $500k) from international pool for signing the first qualified free agent but does not lose $1m for signing a second qualified free agent.
Baggs, 2 different trade rumors writers have written conflicting articles explaining the QO penalties. And I don’t believe either article is correct. Signing Burnes, after signing Adames, would cost $1 million in the upcoming signing period beginning Jan. 15 (not $2 mill). And theyd lose picks 2,3, 5, and 6. Correct?
Hey Ange, say hi to Barney and Floyd for me, would ja? (GB here – shhh, don’t tell anyone.)
Mr. McDonald, both you and Mr. Deeds need to get your QO penalties straight. You’ve both been incorrect in your reporting. Why do other sites get it correct and neither of you can? Does Tim Dierkes (Sp?) review writers’ stories?
Goldschmidt to the Angels for 1 year would be great. He could help develop Schanuel and the other young guys while adding solid 1st base.