It was reported last month that the Giants were looking to scale back payroll relative to 2024 levels, but that may no longer be the case. Alex Pavlovic of NBC Sports reports that the club initially had planned on focusing more on player development in 2025 while taking a step back in terms of building the major league roster, but now seems to have changed course.
That tracks with the club’s behavior in recent weeks. They just signed shortstop Willy Adames to a seven-year, $182MM deal and are reportedly involved on free agent right-hander Corbin Burnes, who is likely to get an even bigger deal than Adames. At the start of the offseason, MLBTR predicted Burnes for $200MM over seven years, but basically every pitcher has been beating expectations this winter. Max Fried was predicted for $156MM over six years, notably below the prediction for Burnes, but got to $218MM over eight years. As such, it’s fair to expect Burnes to beat Fried’s guarantee by some margin.
If the Giants are ultimately successful in signing Burnes, it would put them pretty close to the competitive balance tax line. RosterResource projects their 2025 number at $208MM right now, which is $33MM below next year’s $241MM base threshold. The Giants crossed the CBT line in 2024 and the planned pay cut likely would have seen them stay below the line in 2025, but a Burnes deal would bridge most of that gap with still other moves likely to follow. In terms of pure dollars, they’re projected for $167MM next year, almost $40MM below their 2024 spending.
The pivot to a more aggressive winter bodes well for their chances in the upcoming season. Adames fills a clear area of need and Burnes would be a huge rotation upgrade if it comes together. In addition to the financial costs of those deals, there would be long-term consequences in terms of draft capabilities. The Giants gave up two picks in 2024, one each for signing Blake Snell and Matt Chapman, since each guy had rejected a qualifying offer. Since the Giants paid the tax in 2024, the penalties are higher this winter. Signing Adames means forfeiting $1MM of international bonus pool space and two picks, their second- and fifth-highest choices in 2025. Like Adames, Burnes also rejected a qualifying offer, which would mean forfeiting another $1MM in pool space and another two picks.
Given that the club’s plan was initially going to involve player development, that’s a notable part of the pivot. However, it’s possible that the Giants simply want to make something happen now, more so than in the future. Their stunning 2021 campaign is their only winning season of the past eight years, so perhaps there’s an appetite to get over the hump sooner rather than later. New president of baseball operations Buster Posey spoke in his introductory press conference about the club getting back into the memory-making business, which has seemingly spurred the club towards shopping at or near the top of free agency.
Whether the Burnes deal can come together or not, the club will also have to consider other moves. In a separate column, Pavlovic notes that veteran first baseman Paul Goldschmidt “has a lot of fans in the organization.” Separately, Andrew Baggarly of The Athletic suggests that Posey might be willing to sign veterans to short-term deals, floating Goldschmidt as a possibility alongside Max Scherzer and Justin Verlander.
Goldschmidt, 37, isn’t too far removed from winning National League Most Valuable Player in 2022 but his performance has declined in the past two years. He slashed .317/.404/.578 for a 175 wRC+ in his MVP season but he fell in 2023 and dropped even further this year. His 2024 batting line finished at .245/.302/.414 for a 100 wRC+, indicating he was exactly league average. His 7.2% walk rate and 26.5% strikeout rate were both career worsts, outside of his 2011 debut.
Whether he can bounce back in 2025 or not is a matter for debate. His age and recent decline don’t bode especially well, but there is arguably some confidence to be found in his strong finish this year. He hit just .230/.291/.373 in the first half of 2024 for an 87 wRC+ but then .271/.319/.480 in the second half for a 120 wRC+.
The Giants don’t strictly have a need at first base, with LaMonte Wade Jr. currently projected as their primary option there. However, they don’t have a clear everyday designated hitter at the moment. Jorge Soler and Michael Conforto got the most DH appearances in 2024 but Soler is now and Angel and Conforto a Dodger. Wilmer Flores could be in the mix there but he was dreadful in 2024 while battling knee problems and it’s unclear how much the Giants expect from him in 2025.
With the current roster construction, using the DH for some outfield overflow might make sense. The club has Heliot Ramos, Jung Hoo Lee and Mike Yastrzemski likely in three outfield spots but with Grant McCray, Jerar Encarnación, Luis Matos, Marco Luciano and others on the roster. Having Goldschmidt and Wade sharing the DH spot and first base would make it hard to find extra at-bats for that group, though perhaps the Giants are willing to live with that in order to take a shot on Goldschmidt for his veteran leadership. He also wouldn’t be able to command a lengthy deal on account of his age and recent performance. MLBTR predicted him for a one-year pact with a $15MM guarantee at the start of the offseason.
There’s also the possibility of signing Goldschmidt and then making Wade available in trades. It was reported last month that Wade and Yastrzemski were indeed available, as well as some other players, though it’s unclear if the club’s recent change in plans has altered the availability of such players.
Wade were surely draw interest from other clubs if the Giants wanted to move him. He doesn’t provide the pop that clubs usually look to get from a first baseman, but he gets on base and isn’t too expensive. Over the past two years, he has drawn a walk in 15% of his 920 plate appearances. Aaron Judge, Juan Soto and Kyle Schwarber were the only big leaguers with at least 900 plate appearances and better walk rates in that time. Wade only hit 25 home runs over those two seasons but his .258/.376/.401 batting line still translated to a strong 120 wRC+.
For his career, Wade has notable platoon splits, with a 120 wRC+ against right-handed pitchers and just a 64 wRC+ against lefties. He was much better against southpaws in 2024, though in a tiny sample of just 43 plate appearances. There are limits in his profile but MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz projects him for a modest $4.7MM salary in his final year of club control.
Goldschmidt seems perfect for a 1 year deal as a bridge player for basically any club in need of a first baseman and some raw power in the line up,
1 year/$15M seems like a no brainer deal for Goldschmidt and an immensely affordable contract for a reliable veteran at any position.
I think he’d be a nice temporary fit for the Giants.
Would be nice to have him mentor Eldridge during spring training as well.
Wade Jr would be a great fit for the Yankees. He’s not fast but gets on base for the big bats.
Bellinger would make sense for the Giants if the Cubs took Yaz. Belli could play 1st and OF.
You’d think Belli or Seiya are as good as gone with the Cubs adding Tucker. Both would be good fits in SF. But their contracts would also take them out of the market for Burnes most likely but it would help hitting and defense.
Bellinger would be a terrible fit for the Giants as his contract does not match his output, his lack of hard contact is glaring and there’s no reason to block Eldridge at 1b or one of the young outfielders (Matos, McCray, Meckler, Luciano).
Plus, as atuck_sfg has already mentioned, Bellinger’s contract would impinge on more important needs/deals.
I hear you. But Yaz is a year older and Bellinger can play first base.
I don’t think we can count on Wade Jr ever playing a full season healthy. As a part time player he’s got value and I don’t think another team will value him in a trade.
A straight up trade of Yaz for Belli makes the $27M salary hit easier; if the Cubs chip in more money all the better, even if SF has to throw in a mid level prospect.
As for Eldridge, I hope the team doesn’t consider him until 2026; he just turned 20 and needs a lot of work at first base. Belli won’t block him as he can play OF/DH.
I’m sure we all would have preferred Kyle Tucker but the cost was steep.
This is all mute anyways, probably doesn’t happen but Bellinger in a vacuum would help out SFG next year.
I don’t understand the enthusiasm for Bellinger. He’s expensive and inconsistent. The Cubs are obviously going for it in 2025, but want to move him?
Over the past 3 seasons he’s been only marginally better than Yaz, but makes over $18M more. Last season their OPS+ and bWAR were nearly identical, Bellinger 111 OPS+, 2.2 bWAR, Yaz 110 OPS+, 2.1 bWAR. Bellinger isn’t worth the difference for the extra money he would cost. The Cubs aren’t eating as salary to make it worthwhile.
The Giants don’t seem to think Eldridge needs a lot of work, since they’ve said a 2025 call-up is a possibility based on how advanced he is for his age. He wouldn’t be the first 20 year-old to force his way on to a ML roster.
Everything I’ve heard on Eldridge’s defense at First is he needs a lot of work.
I think the former regime pigeon holed him into first base, taking him away from his natural spot in the OF. I also believe asking a 20 year old to come be the Giants next savior is too much too soon. Nothing wrong waiting for 2026.
Calling him up is no where the same thing as asking him to be a savior. That’s overstating what a call-up would be.
And I think it’s a mistake to focus on his age. He was promoted to A-ball as an 18 year-old. As a 19 year-old he’s zoomed up through the MiLs to AAA.
It’s not age, it’s whether he’s ready. I don’t know if he’s ready or not, I’ll leave that to the professionals. If he’s not, I’m good with Wade/Flores until he is. I think signing a 37 year-old, who appears to be in decline, for $15M, is a move that costs the team flexibility, and whose production could likely be less than what they have in-house.
I don’t know what kind of defender Wade is but Goldschmidt is a good one. He would play the field most days wherever he signs.
BITA — Wade is an excellent defender but the Giants still should sign Goldy for a year or two. He and Wade can platoon with Goldy also DHing. And Goldschmidt LOVES hitting in Oracle. (In 368 plate appearances over 84 career games at Oracle Park, Goldschmidt is slashing .334/.424/.591 with 15 home runs and 64 RBI.)
Adames should be talking to Burnes as well as they played together for 3 years.
He said at his introductory press conference that he was calling him afterward
Yes, he should tell him how great it is playing for the giants and living on San Fran…wait
Yeah, because Northern California isn’t a beautiful, desirable place to live? Maybe it’s a good idea to venture out of the neighborhood once in a while?
Right?!?! Telling, said ‘San Fran’
Simm probably lives in a Ryan home, driving 30 minutes each way to WalMart. Truly the American way.
True, but the deep state will use their mind control machines to turn your kids trans and make them hate you.
-Elon Musk
Which is why we’re pretty damn happy Musk up and moved to Texas.
I hope they get Goldschmidt and trade Wade or use him off the bench. I love Wade’s game but he just can’t stay healthy.
prob would benefit Wade to come off the bench and maximize production, while staying healthy
Spending a lot of money to finish 3rd or 4th
Spending a lot of money to make the Wild card in a deep NL Wedt, like they should.
So they should do nothing? That’ll help them win games…
Third in the NL West isn’t the insult you think it is. Very possible this team is better than another division’s first place.
Agreed. That division is just super competitive.
If third means the Giants win 90 games and get in the Postseason, then it’s money well spent.
1-year deal for goldschmidt is likely the yankees’ plan c if they don’t get walker or bellinger
Goldy wouldn’t have nearly the home run totals if if wasn’t for the Giants Big Time Timmy Jim.
He owes us so let’s do it!!
I’d rather get Carlos Santana for one year at half the price of Goldschmidt. He’s a SH, draws walks and is tough to K. Plus he’s an excellent defender having won a GG (and ranking high among Defensive Runs Saved and Outs Above Average).
Would ideally like Walker but don’t see Yankees wanting to give up their 3rd/6th picks and another 1M in international bonus. They already lost 2nd/5th picks and 1M for signing Fried.
I agree on Santana completely. I like him better as a one year option to bridge to Eldridge but Posey loves Goldschmidt and remembers him as a very tough rival so I think sentiment may dictate that decision a little bit if it does transpire.
It’s either/or for the Giants in each scenario. If they sign either Santana or Goldschmidt, it would be a good move.
But agreed, Santana is the better signing based on everything you said.
And I don’t know if this has merit, but adding another Dominican on top of Willy Adames might help Camilo Doval settle down? I don’t even know if that would work but it’s not far-fetched.
Fernando —
I repeat: In 368 plate appearances over 84 career games at Oracle Park, Goldschmidt is slashing .334/.424/.591 with 15 home runs and 64 RBI.
@Pete – That sounds good. Rather Giants take him than the Yankees.
Pete, Most of those 368 PAs came when he was much younger. He’s 37, turning 38 in September. Over the last 3 years his OPS+ has gone from 177, to 120, to 98. And his bWAR from 7.7, to 3.4, to 1.3.
Even the best hitters have down years, but when a guy in his late 30s shows such steep decline over 2 consecutive seasons, one has to think it’s age catching up, and not just 2 straight down years.
I could be wrong, but age seems like the more probable reason. If he could be had for $5M-$7M, instead of $15M, I’d say he was worth the risk. Otherwise I remain skeptical.
Goldy great mentor for Eldridge, Santana similiar to Wade so meh.
Get Burnes please he’s a west coaster. Go Giants! Never settle, Posey at the helm I like it.
One small clarification: a CBT payor loses $1m (instead of $500k) from international pool for signing the first qualified free agent but does not lose $1m for signing a second qualified free agent.
Baggs, 2 different trade rumors writers have written conflicting articles explaining the QO penalties. And I don’t believe either article is correct. Signing Burnes, after signing Adames, would cost $1 million in the upcoming signing period beginning Jan. 15 (not $2 mill). And theyd lose picks 2,3, 5, and 6. Correct?
correction: The $1mill penalty will be for the Jan15-Dec15 2026 signing period..The upcoming Jan15-Dec15 2025 signing period is when the SnellChapman $1 mil penalty kicks in. They were signed for 24 season. Adames is signed for the 25 season so the $1mil penalty for that signing comes in the 26 international signing period.
Hey Ange, say hi to Barney and Floyd for me, would ja? (GB here – shhh, don’t tell anyone.)
You might be GB cuz thats something GB would say. I say GOLLLLLY! Shazam!
Mr. McDonald, both you and Mr. Deeds need to get your QO penalties straight. You’ve both been incorrect in your reporting. Why do other sites get it correct and neither of you can? Does Tim Dierkes (Sp?) review writers’ stories?
Goldschmidt to the Angels for 1 year would be great. He could help develop Schanuel and the other young guys while adding solid 1st base.
Question: What the hell is a “vampire breast lift”?
Answer: Well, I don’t know but if it involves sucking, I’m in.
(This is a PG-rated joke, that’s strictly about vampires and nothing else, so please don’t delete. Thank you.)
lol i remember when having a $200 million dollar payroll was considered crazy
I remember when Juan Marichal held out for $100K and everyone thought the Giants were crazy for paying that much.
They’re still waiting to see how things play out. Signing Burnes would be the biggest apple for sure. Then adding a Verlander or Max to the rotation would be huge. Then adding Goldy and a few other vets for the bench, Another catcher for sure. And the G’s are looking like a wild card contender quickly.
– Sign me up me, I’ll be at Fanfest this year for sure. Interest is back baby !!!
Dude, you are clueless.
You sound like you’re at a buffet. Signing Burnes ends your shopping spree knucklehead. No Verlander/Scherzer. Maybe Goldschmidt. They have a backup catcher already. And “a few other vets for the bench”? You’ve proven over the past to be a frontrunner, bandwagon Giants fan. Find another team to follow cuz you certainly have zero clue about how a team is put together.
Lol
A healthy Flores only helps the Giants in 2025. Dude played hurt when not on the IL. Same with Estrada. Kinda feel bad they let him go because you could tell he wasn’t physically right but tried to play through it. I think Estrada plays well next year for whoever signs him
He’s in Colorado now. I see a resurgence in him this year with big power numbers.
.270 and 20/25 Hrs if he gets regular playing time. Perfect spot for a comeback.
If ChatGPT is correct, Goldschmidt has been exceptional hitting at Oracle Park. Which is unusual. I’d sign him for sure. This is what it said:
“Paul Goldschmidt has demonstrated exceptional performance at Oracle Park in San Francisco:
• Batting Average: .331
• Doubles: 26
• Home Runs: 15
• RBIs: 62
• Games Played: 82”
DEKE –
Minor corrections to the stats you showed for Goldy:
In 368 plate appearances over 84 career games at Oracle Park, Goldschmidt is slashing .334/.424/.591 with 15 home runs and 64 RBI.
Pete, I don’t see his record at Oracle as being very illustrative. Again, 297 of those PAs, were when he was age 29 or younger. Since he signed with the Cards in 2019 at age 30 he has only 71 PAs. In the last 2 seasons he has only 25 PAs which is a small sample.
Fair point. However it’s unusual for players to have better numbers at Oracle, so I think he’s worth a shot.
Worth a shot at $15M? If they could get him for half that, or less, I’d be in favor of it. Evan Longoria at the same age, coming off a better year, 116 OPS+, was bought out by SF, and signed with AZ for $4M. Goldschmidt had a 98 OPS+ last season. It’s great for him if he can get the $15M predicted, but I think that’s based on his production from 3 years ago and earlier, and aren’t accurate predictors of future performance
ChatGPT is not to be trusted! Thanks for the correction Pete’sView
Yaz and Wade are not the long term solution for the Giants and not good enough to start IMO so trading them would be prudent as they are on expiring contracts.. I very much wanted Tucker or Robert Jr last year. Robert Jr would not cost a lot in terms of dollars just prospects and would be a nice add to Lee/Ramos. Goldy would be a decent 1 year gamble. The Giants have a lot of young quality pitching to deal especially if they get Burnes. Black/Whiteside/Whitman/Crawford to go with Beck/Roupp/Winn/Beck they can’t possibly use them all. i would target good players who are about to become too expensive for small market teams.
Agreed, Yaz and Wade are not long-term solutions, but are better ones than the alternatives. Goldschmidt has had 2 straight seasons of sharp decline. Not a good sign at 37. Last season he had a 98 OPS+, and 1.3 bWAR. Wade had a 120 OPS+, and 2.1 bWAR. Wade is projected a $4.7M arb raise. Goldschmidt is predicted to get $15M, more than 3x Wade’s salary.
Robert will cost a steep price in prospect capital.
Last season they appeared to have an abundance of pitching as well. Injuries to Snell, Harrison, Winn, Beck, and Cobb, as well as performance issues with Hicks, Black, and Winn when he did pitch, and that abundance evaporated.