The market for starting pitching this winter has moved a bit more rapidly than the rest of free agency so far, with lefties Blake Snell and Yusei Kikuchi both having already found new homes with the Dodgers and Angels, respectively. This year’s pitching market is characterized by the depth of quality arms available, however, and plenty of solid pitchers still remain available. One quirk of this year’s class is that the vast majority of top-tier, and even mid-tier, starting pitchers received Qualifying Offers. Snell and Kikuchi were both exceptions to that, and other exceptions such as Jack Flaherty and Nathan Eovaldi remain on the table, but the majority of mid-rotation or better arms available this winter are attached to draft pick compensation.
The volume of QO pitchers is helped by the fact that three somewhat surprising arms were extended the QO this winter. Those three pitchers are Luis Severino, Nick Pivetta, and Nick Martinez. While Martinez opted to accept the QO and stick with the Reds on a one-year deal worth north of $21MM, both Pivetta and Severino opted to reject the QO in search of a multi-year deal in free agency. As both pitchers are already on the wrong side of 30, that’s a defensible decision for both as this winter may represent their best opportunity to land longer term guarantee in free agency. Both pitchers have considerable upside and could provide solid value for their new club if they pitch to their potential, but both also have noticeable red flags in their profiles that could give teams pause.
Severino is no longer the pitcher he was in his early 20s, when he made two All-Star teams and asserted himself as the ace of the Yankees rotation with a 3.13 ERA and 2.99 FIP across 66 starts from 2017-19. Since that peak performance, the right-hander missed nearly three full regular seasons thanks to a lat strain that cost him the majority of 2019 followed by Tommy John surgery, which wiped out 2020 and almost all of his 2021 campaign. His next two seasons also saw him wind up bitten by the injury bug, as he suffered another lat strain in 2022 and an oblique strain in 2023. While 2022 saw him look mostly like himself when healthy enough to take the mound with a 3.18 ERA in 19 starts, 2023 saw his performance take a nosedive. In 89 1/3 innings in his final year as a Yankee, Severino was torched for a 6.65 ERA and 6.14 ERA. That production was 35% worse than league average, and left him to enter free agency last winter surrounded by plenty of question marks.
The right-hander generally answered those questions after taking a one-year deal with the Mets last winter. He enjoyed his first fully healthy season since 2018, making 31 starts and throwing 182 innings. With that said, his results were clearly diminished relative to his peak as he posted a 3.91 ERA (101 ERA+) and a 4.21 FIP that cast him more as a league average pitcher than one capable of fronting a rotation. After striking out 28.8% of opponents from 2017 to 2022 and walking just 6.6%, both figures trended in the wrong direction this year as he punched out batters at a 21.2% clip and allowed free passes to 7.9% of hitters. He made up for that somewhat by posting his strongest groundball rate in years, however, with a 46% figure that ranked 14th among qualified starters this year. Severino’s fastball velocity isn’t far off from where it was at his peak, which could provide optimism for a rebound, but it seems more likely that Severino will continue as a quality third or fourth starter going forward.
Pivetta, by contrast, has been regarded all throughout his career as a high-potential arm with electric stuff. That hasn’t changed even as he’s gotten into 30’s, but he’s still yet to put up the type of quality, front-of-the-rotation production that stuff models have projected for him all throughout his career. The righty had a season in 2024 that’s become typical of him during his years since being shipped from the Phillies to the Red Sox. In 145 2/3 innings of work, he posted a 4.14 ERA with a 4.07 FIP despite striking out 28.9% of opponents and walking just 6.1%. Those ratios are actually even better than Severino’s numbers throughout his peak, but Pivetta is held back by a proclivity towards allowing homers.
He’s never allowed less than 20 long balls in a 162-game season with 102 allowed over his four years as a regular in Boston. That’s tied with Kikuchi for the fifth-most in the league over that time, behind only Patrick Corbin, Jose Berrios, Aaron Nola, and Jordan Lyles. Severino allows his fair share of home runs as well, but when accounting for the fact that he threw nearly 40 more innings than Pivetta, the difference between his 23 homers allowed this year and Pivetta’s 28 is stark. With that said, it’s undeniably that Pivetta’s high-octane stuff offers more upside than Severino at this point in his career; if a club has a pitcher-friendly ballpark or a plan to help Pivetta control his homer-happy tendencies, it’s easy to see why they’d be tempted to roll the dice on the 31-year-old’s upside.
If you were looking to sign a mid-rotation righty to a multi-year deal this winter, would you prefer to lock down Severino’s volume and quality mid-rotation production despite his lengthy injury history? Or would you rather roll the dice on Pivetta’s upside and more consistent health track record despite a lack of volume and inconsistency brought on by frequent homers?
Gotta hand it to stearns & mets pitching coach hefner
They took a washed up banged up veteran nobody wanted & turned his career around in 1 season
“Gotta hand it to”…Surely the Mets are to be congratulated for their use and handling of Luis Severino. But, to describe him as “washed up” is a bit much, since he was still in demand enough to command a $14M contract. Not many “washed up” pitchers will ever command that sum.
“Banged up” is more accurate since Severino was coming off an arm injury that often takes 14-24 months from which to fully recover. In my opinion the Met’s biggest decision was whether Sevi was a good bounce back candidate to his years of being a TOR guy(or close to one) with the Yankees. It turns out that he was and rewarded the Mets for their bold confidence.
I didn’t think he’d ever have a good season again. Still might not after this, of course.
He didn’t have a good season in 2024. The Mets offering him 21 million was insane and him not taking it was also a bit crazy.
Cue the “Padres can’t afford it” BS narrative.
That’s BS and a quick way to lose a fanbase.
Don’t invest in a team and ownership can quote Kevin, in honor of the Christmas season “I made my fanbase dissappear”
It will happen quick, believe you me.
Dude what does that have to do with Severino and Pivetta?
The fact that Padres fans will be told “they are too expensive”.
Padres fans are being conditioned to accept a firesale of sorts.
It starts with every FA ‘is too expensive’ then progresses to ‘finding a way to compete’ and then ‘offloading a large contract’ to be able to sign middling FA’s.
The team then will hover around .500 for several years and then fall back into oblivion.
Fans will complain about the need for a salary cap because the team just can’t afford to spend.
All by design.
Stick to basketball, towinagain.
You mean the sport that actually gets it, structure wise?
MLB should look to the NBA as an example.
And hey, there is only one professional sports team in SD.
I have no choice.
The Padres have been more aggressive and bigger spenders than most teams. I understand that you’re in the same division as the Dodgers but most fan bases would be thrilled to have San Diego’s ownership, management and commitment.
Troy – Lot of people here believe once a player is bad they will never get good again. It’s a common stance here but stupid, especially when health is not taken into consideration. Chris Sale is just one example.
Pivetta, easily. His start-to-start inconsistencies overshadow how remarkably consistent he is on a yearly basis. He also has a far healthier arm than Severino, who has never recovered from being overused in the first half of 1018.
Reading this post makes me think both of them should have taken the QO. Could they both end up signing a deal like Montgomery did this year?.
“Should have taken the QO”..I don’t watch Boston as much; only a couple times a week so I won’t comment on Pivetta.
But, I do think Sevi has set himself up for a nice 3 yr $45M-$50M payday, even with the weight of a qualifying offer attached. So, I do believe he made the right decision for him and his family.
Montgomery was a good pitcher up until 2024. These 2 are back end starters.
This is a would you rather drown or burn to death, both of these guys should of accepted the QO
He has never allowed *fewer* than 20 long balls.
Severino only shows up in contract years
Well then sign him to one year deals.
Severino has had two contract years. The first was awful which is why the Yankees didn’t bring him back. This past year was a good bounce back year.
Allowing home runs is not a problem if they are solo home runs. It’s way better to look at the number of runs allowed on home runs rather than just the count.
Severino was good, but inconsistent, this season. He’d throw 2-3 good games and then a real clunker. He was also gassed by the end of the season, and that really showed in September and October. But that was understandable given how many more innings he pitched this year. If I were Stearns I’d bring him back on a 3 year deal as he has shown that he can pitch under the pressure of NYC. His relationship with Mendoza from their Yankee days together may have also helped.
I would gladly sign Pivetta.