The Diamondbacks have officially announced their signing of Corbin Burnes to a six-year free agent deal. Burnes, a client of the Boras Corporation, is reportedly guaranteed $210MM and can opt out after two seasons. He’ll collect a $10MM signing bonus up front and is due $30MM salaries in the first two years. He’d need to weigh whether to leave the remaining four years and $140MM on the table after 2026. The contract reportedly includes roughly $60MM in deferred money and varying no-trade protection over the course of the deal.
The news is a shocking turn of events, as Burnes had garnered plenty of interest in free agency but had not been connected to Arizona at any point in the offseason. While some rumored suitors for the right-hander’s services such as the Yankees and Red Sox turned to alternative options for the front of their rotations by signing Max Fried and trading for Garrett Crochet respectively, a number of known interested parties remained in the mix. That included not only the incumbent Orioles but also the big-market Giants and Blue Jays, both of whom USA Today’s Bob Nightengale reports offered Burnes a higher guarantee.
However, Burnes lives in Scottsdale, and playing close to home seems to have inspired the right-hander’s decision. According to Nick Piecoro of The Arizona Republic, Burnes was the one who approached the Diamondbacks “expressing a desire to pitch in Arizona.” John Gambadoro of 98.7FM Arizona Sports radio (multiple links to X) reports that the deal came together quickly, as talks between Burnes’ camp and the Snakes only started within the last three or four days. Diamondbacks chairman Ken Kendrick viewed signing Burnes as “too good of an opportunity to pass up,” as a source told Piecoro, and thus Kendrick okayed the biggest contract in franchise history.
Gambadoro writes that the contract contains “a significant amount of” deferred money, and a full no-trade clause covering just the 2025-26 seasons. If Burnes doesn’t opt out, Nightengale notes that Burnes’ no-trade protection is then limited to 14 teams over the final four seasons of the deal. Piecoro, meanwhile, goes into further detail regarding the deferred money. Per Piecoro, Burnes’s contract includes “a little north” of $60MM in deferred money, or between $10MM and $11MM per year deferred. Should Burnes decide to opt out following the 2026 campaign, the more than $20MM in deferred money accrued during the first two years of the deal would then need to be paid out within the following year.
Earlier this offseason, Blake Snell landed a $182MM guarantee from the Dodgers ahead of his age-32 season, and a look at MLBTR’s Contract Tracker reveals that Zack Greinke, Max Scherzer, and Jacob deGrom have all signed free agent contracts that guaranteed nine figures ahead of their age-32 campaigns or older. Burnes’ deal falls short of his previously-reported goal of matching the $245MM guarantee the Nationals offered to right-hander Stephen Strasburg during the 2019-20 offseason.
By total guarantee, Burnes’ contract lands close to the seven-year, $200MM prediction that MLBTR made at the start of the offseason as part of our annual Top 50 MLB Free Agents list, where Burnes ranked second in the class behind only Juan Soto. A closer look at the deal reveals that Burnes followed in the footsteps of virtually every other pitcher this winter, however, and landed a deal that exceeds expectations. The $35MM average annual value of the deal dwarfs the $28.57MM AAV predicted by MLBTR and even matches Strasburg, while the opt-out opportunity provides its own value in the form of flexibility.
For the Diamondbacks, it’s a massive financial outlay that beats out Greinke’s aforementioned six-year, $206.5MM deal for the largest guarantee in franchise history. Setting a club record for total guarantee in free agency would be noteworthy for any club, but it’s especially surprising coming from an Arizona team that previously indicated that they planned to run a payroll for 2025 that more or less matched their 2024 figure. As noted by RosterResource, Arizona spent just $173MM on payroll in 2024 and after signing Burnes are projected for a $194MM payroll in 2025. That hike of more than $20MM brings payroll to a completely unprecedented level for the franchise after setting a record for payroll just last year. It’s hardly a secret that the club is trying to move on from left-hander Jordan Montgomery on the trade market this winter, but even if the club manages to shed the majority of his salary they’ll have still put themselves into uncharted territory financially by signing Burnes.
That’s not to say the risk is a poor one to take, of course. Burnes established himself as among the league’s very best starters with Milwaukee during the shortened 2020 campaign, where he broke out to finish sixth in NL Cy Young award voting. He followed that performance up by going out and winning the award the following year, and the four-time All-Star has been on the shortlist for the game’s top rotation arms ever since. Over the past five seasons, Burnes ranks fifth among qualified MLB starters in innings pitched, second in fWAR, fourth in ERA, sixth in FIP, and third in strikeouts. Of course, much of that is due to a dominant 2021 season that saw Burnes lead the sport in ERA (2.43), FIP (1.69), and strikeout rate (35.6%).
Some red flags have emerged in the right-hander’s profile since then, as he’s started to go deeper into games at the expense of rate-basis dominance. His fastball velocity isn’t quite at the level it was during his Cy Young-winning campaign, and his strikeout rate has declined in each of the past five seasons until it ultimately fell to a roughly league average 23.1% this year. On the other hand, that relatively pedestrian figure started to tick back up towards the end of the season, when he struck out 27.7% of opponents faced in September. While he’s not quite matched the dominance of his otherworldly 2021 campaign in the years since, his 3.08 ERA and 3.49 FIP in 590 innings over the last three seasons ultimately still cast him as a starter who is clearly capable of fronting a playoff-caliber rotation.
He’ll be tasked with doing exactly that in Arizona this year, as the Diamondbacks appear to be all-in after narrowly missing the playoffs in 2024 despite winning more games than the 84-win 2023 club that managed to secure the NL pennant. Burnes will pair nicely with longtime club ace Zac Gallen at the front of the rotation, with veterans Merrill Kelly and Eduardo Rodríguez bringing up the middle. Brandon Pfaadt and Ryne Nelson represent intriguing options at the back of the club’s rotation, as will Montgomery if he’s not traded before the start of the season. Overall, the club’s rotation mix is among the most robust in the league at the moment on paper and should help to support an offense that lost both Joc Pederson and Christian Walker to free agency this winter. The front office swung a trade to land first baseman Josh Naylor in hopes of helping to plug that hole, but the club nonetheless seems likely to lean heavily on its internal youngsters like Corbin Carroll, Geraldo Perdomo, and top prospect Jordan Lawlar at the plate in 2025.
It’s unclear what’s in store for the Diamondbacks going forward this winter given their unprecedented current payroll commitments. The club has long been known to be pining after help at the back of its bullpen this winter, with a trade for Ryan Helsley or signing Kirby Yates among the potential options the club has reportedly considered. Another hitter would also make sense for the club after losing both Walker and Pederson to free agency, preferably a right-handed bat to complement a heavily left-handed lineup. With that being said, it’s entirely possible that the club won’t have room to make additional moves of significance without first shedding salary in the form of Montgomery or another potential trade candidate.
Because Burnes turned down the Orioles’ qualifying offer, Baltimore will receive a compensatory pick after the first round of the 2025 draft. Gaining what currently stands as the 30th overall selection isn’t a bad consolation prize for the Orioles, but since they had designs on retaining Burnes themselves, the O’s are still on the lookout to add more frontline pitching to their rotation.
Jon Heyman of the New York Post first reported the D-Backs were signing Burnes to a six-year, $210MM deal with an opt-out after year two. USA Today’s Bob Nightengale reported the signing bonus and the salaries for the first two seasons.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images
