The Tigers recently attempted to extend reigning AL Cy Young award winner Tarik Skubal, according to a report from Evan Petzold of the Detroit Free Press, but Petzold suggests the offer from Detroit was not competitive and the sides ultimately did not come close to hammering out a deal. It’s certainly understandable that Detroit would have interest in locking up their ace long-term, as they’re just beginning to enter their competitive window and have just two years of team control over the southpaw remaining before he can depart in free agency. With that being said, Skubal is a client of Scott Boras, who typically encourages his players to test free agency to maximize value, and the lefty certainly has plenty of leverage coming off a 2024 season that saw him win the AL Triple Crown and become the club’s first Cy Young award winner since Max Scherzer in 2013.
That’s not to say an extension is necessarily impossible, however. A handful of high-profile Boras clients, including Jose Altuve and Xander Bogaerts, have previously signed extensions with their clubs prior to testing free agency. And there’s certainly precedent for Cy Young-caliber hurlers signing extensions, as well. The Tigers famously signed future Hall of Famer Justin Verlander to two extensions across his 13 years in Detroit, the first being a five-year, $80MM contract that bought out his final two arbitration years and three free agent years prior to the 2010 season, and the second being a five-year deal signed prior to the 2013 season that covered the 2015-19 seasons and guaranteed Verlander an additional $140MM.
Verlander’s first contract stands as a fairly straightforward comparison point to Skubal given that the lefty is also two years away from free agency and Verlander had just finished third in AL Cy Young award voting prior to the deal being signed. However, that deal is a decade and a half old at this point and prices around the league have risen considerably in the ensuing years. Verlander’s second extension may serve as a more accurate point of comparison when discussing the possibility of another Cy Young winner extending his stay with the Tigers, given the high-end deals players such as Gerrit Cole (nine years, $324MM), Stephen Strasburg (seven years, $245MM), and Zack Greinke (six years, $206.5MM) have signed over the past decade.
Perhaps the best comparison for Skubal’s situation can be found in right-hander Jacob deGrom, who inked an extension with the Mets prior to the 2019 season that covered the 2020-23 seasons. The deal guaranteed him $120.5MM in new money and included a club option for 2024 that could have raised the total guarantee to $153MM over five years. More importantly, the deal afforded deGrom the opportunity to opt out following the 2022 season. That deal was inked in a very similar situation to the one Skubal and the Tigers find themselves in now; deGrom was just two years from free agency and had secured his first career Cy Young award on the heels of an otherworldly season that saw him post a 1.70 ERA and 1.98 FIP in 217 innings of work.
That season was even more dominant than the one Skubal posted in 2024, and deGrom at the time had a much less checkered injury history than Skubal currently does. While those factors may suggest that deGrom’s deal ought to be a target for the lefty to shoot for, he has one major factor on his side that could substantially boost his earning power beyond even that of deGrom: age. Skubal just turned 28 last week, but deGrom was nearly three years older than Skubal during his Cy Young-winning age-30 season back in 2018. In other words, Skubal is not only younger now than deGrom was at the time of his extension, but he’ll actually still be younger than deGrom was at the time of the deal when he’s slated to reach free agency following the 2026 season.
Being able to market an age-30 season in free agency is a huge boost to a player’s overall value on the open market, particularly for pitchers who teams are often hesitant to guarantee lengthy deals for. Cole’s massive nine-year deal with the Yankees came prior to his age-29 season, suggesting that a $300MM payday could be a stretch for Skubal, but Strasburg was a year older than Skubal will be upon reaching free agency when he secured his $245MM contract on the open market and even had a similarly checkered injury history to the southpaw. Strasburg’s deal wound up being among the worst contracts in recent memory due to subsequent injury woes, which could make clubs skeptical of replicating it, but it’s easy to imagine Skubal landing a deal north of $200MM should he reach free agency during the 2026-27 offseason.
That’s a hefty price tag for the Tigers to contend with, but it’s certainly feasible they could put a compelling offer on the table. After all, the club has just two players signed to guaranteed contracts for the 2026 season: Javier Baez and Colt Keith. Keith won’t make more than $5.3MM annually until and unless his club option for the 2030 season is picked up, while Baez’s $23.3MM AAV will drop off the books following the 2027 season. For a club that was able to afford hefty annual salaries to both Verlander and Miguel Cabrera a decade ago, it should be fairly manageable to commit an AAV in the $25-30MM range to Skubal.
Skubal is projected by MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz for an $8MM salary via arbitration this year, and would presumably be in line for a healthy raise next winter as well. If the Tigers were willing to guarantee Skubal a combined $25MM for his final two trips through arbitration, then perhaps a seven-year, $175MM extension could make sense for both sides. Such a deal would guarantee Skubal a total payday through his age-34 season that approaches the $200MM guarantee he could hope to land in free agency, while allowing the Tigers to lock up their ace through his prime years. It’s also possible that Skubal could take a page out of deGrom’s playbook and sacrifice some total guarantee in order to get a second bite at the apple in the form of an opt-out, perhaps following his age-32 season in 2029.
A hell of a lot of money, biggest in history if I had to guess
Except he’s already had more major surgeries than fully healthy MLB seasons. Idk if I could be the one to hand him a 10 year deal
Yeah I doubt he lands the longest term deal but he will definitely get the highest AAV
Maybe like 45 mil a year to pass scherzer and verlanders deals a few years ago
The Tigers were in this situation before with Max Scherzer. They chose to sign Zimmerman instead. How did that work out for Tigers and how about for the Nationals?
The Tigers better do what they can to sign Skubal long term. They have one of the lowest payrolls right now (even with Baez on the roster).
Yeah, that Zimmermann move was idiotic.
The difference between idiocy and genius is success. If Zimmermann was successful, people would laud the move as genius.
@hiflew. “If Zimmerman was good, it would be a good move”. Move over Socrates.
Zimmermann was good, just not with Detroit.
Zimmerman, through his first 11 starts with the Tigers, was destroying the league. Then the injuries started and they never stopped. Sucks, AND, yes, Throwing The Bag at Max was the right move ( they did make a big offer but not big enough)…so yeah it didn’t work. But Zimmerman all of a sudden after 5 very good seasons and the 2 months of lights out starts didnt just forget how to pitch
Tigers wanted to sign Scherzer to a long term deal.
Boros nixed that.
Boros prefers to take his clients to the free agency auction.
Tigers offered Scherzer a record team contract at that time.
Scherzer/Boros turned it down flat
Big mistake Tigers made was in not trading Scherzer for a handful of top young players and almost major league ready prospects coming of his Cy Young Year.
(I was in favor of trading Scherzer at the time).
Instead, they settled for him walking and a draft pick.?!
That is why the Tigers have had such had such long rebuild process(es) from their last 2 windows of contention.
They frequently hold on to their valuable assets too long and then get stuck with those bad veteran contracts that are on the express elevator towards the basement and parking garage lol!
If I were him, I would load it full of opt-outs so I don’t get stuck in Detroit.
@damnyankees. Haven’t been to Detroit recently huh? If you don’t believe the fear mongering and visit the place, you’d see it’s really turned a corner.
Don’t care about the city or what good of shape it’s in. Their baseball team has been garbage for most of the last several decades. I wouldn’t want to spend my entire career there if I wanted to win.
You are the definition of a misinformation troll…
How am I misinformed? Most seasons they’re in the basement or close to it. Put your loyalty aside.
What does the current group of players that made the playoffs have to do with past results?
@Damn Tigers were pretty good most of 80s then for almost 10 yrs starting in 2006. They were bad in the late 90s early 2000’s. Not exactly “decades”.
As for the opts out, Skubal still has a few yrs of team control and a questionable history in regard to injury. The Tigers would not extend him with opt outs unless it’s 3 to 4 yrs into his free agency. He does not have the lever age at this point to get opt outs for each yr that’s not team controlled.
If he wanted out of Detroit, why would he sign an extension?
Maybe because he wants to get paid big while the Tigers still have two years of control.
He signed him to enjoy being here so far and fits right in with the young core. He has mentioned the teams chemistry I interviews as have quite a few others.
What would it take? Only Skubal can answer that question. It takes the team offering a contract and Skubal accepting it. Any else is just mindless speculation and time filler until Spring Training begins.
Did you come here in November looking for relevant cold hard facts?
Hey it’s not like the site has the word rumor in it’s name……
No, just had a bad morning and was very crabby. My apologies for the attitude.
$1 Billion with an opt out in year in 2046
And Tax Defferals with a 401K Plan
1000 Bitcoin
DR Evil aka Old Man Boras…One Million Dollars!!!
I would be skeptical about negotiating a contract after he’s had a career season like this. If he repeats 2024 in 2025 then it isn’t really a career year. I would want to see him do that prior to working out a deal. And with Boras as an agent he probably won’t be signed until June of 2027.
ERA+ was slightly lower in 2023 than 2024, but all the other peripherals were actually a little better. Smaller sample size with less innings obviously, but it’s not like 2024 was out of no where.
Still, with his injury history, I wouldn’t do it.
I wouldn’t say out of nowhere but still it’s a career year.
He had a couple bad stretches in 2021 but otherwise showed some promise. 2022 prior to injury he started to show he was a special pitcher. He pitched rather well in 2023 as well.
Yes it was the best overall season of his young career, but it did not come out of nowhere. Trying to paint 2024 as an anomaly by stating it was a “career year” in such a context is simply false. He has showed top of rotation talent the past few seasons which is pretty close to his entire career.
8 years and $250M is probably what it will take for Skubal to forgo free agency. If he hits free agency healthy and still pitching well, a 6 year deal would be pretty likely. So add 2 years for his last arb years. He probably could get close to that if not more if he were on the open market right now. And Bora$$ isn’t going to advise his client to sign at this point unless it is at market or above.
If he hit free agency today he might get more than 6 years. A 34/35 year old Jacob deGrom got 5 years I’m sure a desperate team or two would jump at the chance
He is not signing an extension unless it is in free agency.
That is why players hire Boras to test the maximum amount of money available in free agency.
Some of those players got burned last year when the market was less than they anticipated. Some even dropped Boras as an agent.
If I were the Tigers, my first offer is what the Red Sox gave Chris Sale in 2019 (5 years, $145 million). Skubal doesn’t have the track record that Sale did entering that extension but is younger. He’s only had 1 season throwing 150 innings but if he bet on himself and was at the top of the Cy Young race in 2025, he’s going to get offers closer to what David Price got from Boston (7/$210M).
your mistake is using red sox pitchers’ contracts as comparison points. skubal is at a different point in his career than either of those guys were at that time, and will land more money than sale, and probably a higher AAV than price. i wouldnt hate offering him 6/150, and if tangible interest is there stretching the budget to get it done.
With all his surgeries, they should be looking to offload him before he comes down to reality.
This is the best answer. Very few pitchers have longevity. If you sign a starter to an 8 year deal, you are likely going to not have him available for the equivalent of 2 of those 8 years. Sure it COULD work out, but the risk is way too high for the amount of money required.
Been saying that myself for years. I wouldn’t offer a starting pitcher more than 5 years except in a really unusual situation. Too many TJS these days.
i think buying out two years of arb and four of FA would be worth moving past a five year limit for. this offseason is essentially decision time for skubal, what with the shelf life of pitchers. two years of club control, but realistically how many innings?
i do think this guy is on the plane of degrom, scherzer, where if they can pitch they will be dominant but buyer beware. maybe he got all of the major injuries out of the way early, though.
If I were an Illitch, I’d tack on an extra $1 on all Hot-n-Readys through the duration of the contract and call it the Tarik Tax.
Ok. Now that the press says they failed to sign him, the next article will be what will it take to trade for Skubal.
6/200
Skubal had a tremendous yr
But look @ all the pitchers mentioned here with huge contracts- grienke cole strasburg degrom
None of them lived up to their deals, strasburg retired early, degrom has thrown 40 innings in 2 yrs . Glasnow is another guy with a big contract and always hurt. Buyer beware
This is exactly why Skubal would want to sign an extension. Going 2 more arb years for a 9th round pick means he may never see a life changing payday. A 4 or 5 year deal provides security for his family while still giving him a shot for another big FA contract. Also gives the Tigers 4-5 yrs to compete.
Tigers should just go year to year with him, signing a pitcher at this age is usually a disaster.
At 28? No it is not. JV’s 5 year st this age was fine. He won’t sign a 10 year deal, it would be his remaining arb years and and 1 or 2 FA years.
Comparing someone who’s had one good year by the age of 28 with a HOFer doesn’t really accomplish much.
You’re showing your ignorance when you say he’s had one good year. Just because a lot of people only learned about him this year doesn’t mean that’s when he started pitching well.
2.80 ERA last year. 3.52 ERA two years ago. Absolutely LIGHTS OUT numbers in the minors that lead to him being considered one of the best pitching prospects in baseball before his MLB debut (#20 ranked prospect according to Baseball America), despite originally being a 9th round draft choice which makes it harder to get prospect buzz. And then a year so dominant this year that it blows away what is typically good enough to win a Cy Young.
He’s not a guy that’s come out of nowhere. #1 in most pitching stats over the past two+ years across both leagues. He’s the real deal and will stay that way, as long as he stays healthy. (Which of course is always a big “if”)
You can’t. After puberty, your growth plates stop making new none. He’s plenty tall enough as it is anyway…
I wrote something about this a few days ago….so this is Boras as an agent, you are going to have to start stupid high with what Boras is asking for….Boras is, from what I can guess from his FA history, is ASKING anywhere from $50–70M per and something like 12-15 years. This does not mean that is what Skubal will get, but Boras likes to set that bar so high right off the bat….it’s easier to work down than up when negotiating contracts.
So, going off of previous FA deals involving Boras, it is probably going to be something like 10yrs @$35-45M per… If this wasn’t Boras we were dealing with, I would have a more sane outlook, but Boras is asking 10 years $350M for Bergman who is 30….so you have to figure he’s looking for a longer contract for more money for someone who is 2 years younger and is one of the best lefty power pitchers in the game.
You guys are thinking too low, I believe. X # of years for $400 MM. That seems the correct figure to me.
He can probably land a similar Gerritt Cole deal if he replicates last season. He’s not surpassing JV and Max in AAV.
Ilitch has the money so just pony up and really show the fans that they will keep homegrown talent. They signed Keith and need to sign Greene and Carp too and fill the other gaps. The competitive window is NOW!
Chris Illitch will not be spending like his father Mike Ilitch that seems certain from his words and actions.
This Era of Tigers teams will be primarily built and developed with the farm system, a few trades and some judicious mid level and lower level free agent signings.
The Era of the Tigers spending like the NYY, Dodgers etc on free agents and team extensions was over once Mike I passed.
His son Chris is more like an MBA business manager type
who does not have that passionate love for the game and team that his father Mike I had.
It would not surprise me if Mike I were to sell that team at some point after the rebuild is solidly over.
i meant: It would not surprise me if Chris Illitch sold the Tigers..
ONLY if he spends the family money like his dad did. The team itself does not have the money.
Chris’s words and actions lead me to c0nclude that he has scaled back team spending from his father Mike’s “Top 5 spending levels
to the middle or lower half of the pack for MLB teams.
Before looking at Skubal’s age I thought Witt Jr’s deal seemed to be a good comp for what it would take to lock up Skubal. 11-12 years and $280-300 million. Maybe as large as Yamamoto’s deal.
Now I am thinking 8-9 years and $240-270 million. At the end of the deal he would have just finished his age 36 season.
If its only 6 years then I would guess over 200 mil fairly easily.
I would think the Aaron Nola deal (7/$172) would be the right frame work if we are talking long term. However, if we are only looking at buying out arb years and maybe a year or two of free agency than something in the 3-4 year range worth around $48-60 if its 4 years and between $36-45 if it’s 3 years
7/172 seems way too light. He’s gonna clear 25mil AAV on any deal.
I cant see 7 years being under $210MM. My guess is either 6/200 or 8/240.
Thing is though is that he’s had one (1) healthy elite year. This past season could be either a preview of things to come or an outlier. Paying him like a prime Justin Verlander would be foolish because Verlander was much more accomplished when he got the big payday
I dont disagree with your logic, but teams dont always spend with a logical wallet.
Detroit knows they will likely have to overpay to keep him there, too.
I don’t think the Tigers are going to pay him. Two years from now, I see them being very deep at SP. They’ll have to ask themselves if a few extra wins is worth $25 million. They could trade him for a fine prospect or make the QO and get a compensatory pick. That’s a very plausible scenario.
A contract/money?
A massive life-ending heart attack for Scott Boras?
6/180mil
30mil aav
Potentially can reach 210 mil with incentives. Cy Young winner. Top in 3 in Cy Young voting for 2 oe more consecutive years. A Potential injury does not affect this incentive bonus .
7 years/$210 million is possible the best contract offer I’ll give him. For his age and length.
The Tigers had the same situation with Max Scherzer and Boras.
Scherzer/Boras turned down a very generous offer from the Tigers in record territory and insisted on going on the auction block in free agency.
That is Boras’s “MO”.
Tigers biggest mistake, which I stated at the time, was to keep Scherzer that last year when Scherzer and Boras had already rejected Mike Illitch’s best contract extension offer.
The Tigers could have landed a large return for Scherzer who was coming off a Cy Young season for the team and had one year left of team control.
This is Scherzer 2.0
Boras won’t budge.
He wants Skubal to go into free agency to go on the auction block.
The sooner the Tigers realize this fact, the better they will be.
The Tigers should trade Scherzer at “peak value”
for a handful of top young players and prospects including
at least two top young impact hitting position players and
at least 2 great young arms to position the team for a long term pennant contending run.
Or pitch Skubal for 2 years in pennant races and let him walk like they let Scherzer walk away in free agency.
You’re right, but I don’t think Mike’s offer was record territory. I think it was about $50 million off what he actually signed for.
Nevertheless, I agree with everything. I think if they don’t extend him prior to his last season, he should be traded before the start of the season to maximize the return. Yes, prices are high at the deadline, but I think we could do better by giving the destination team an entire season instead of 2 months.
The free agent bidding war lead to the higher price for Scherzer.
If Scherzer wanted to stay, then he could have stayed.
But, the writing was already on the wall for that aging Tigers team that was loaded with aging veterans with big contracts already.
Then, they traded their future star shortstop prospect for a short
stint of David Price?!
Like Cabrera said to the rookie Adames, “We need a shortstop badly. You would have fit on this team. I don’t know why they traded you”
Even if Scherzer is traded, when their rotation is healthy, the Tigers have a great young rotation with more on the way from the farm:
Reese Olson
Andrew Mize
Jackson Jobe
Keider Montero
and more on the way.
The Tigers could sign another starter to replace Skubal if traded.
Or keep Skubal 1 extra year, trade him for a little less
and still have the other free agent starter for more years.
Corbin Burnes would be one option and less expensive than what Skubal and Boras will want in free agency and years of contract.
I meant even if Skubal is traded.
At the end of the day it’s up to the player to stay or go. I;m still going to be a Tiger fan either way. Soros goes for the money, and that is that. Unless the player overrides it, it’s going all the way.
The Tigers have so many needs it’s no problem to wait. First, third, short, and catcher. Too many issues to hung op oh a Boras guy. I;ll enjoy the next two years anyway it goes down.
Baltimore or some other team loaded with highly rated almost major league ready and young major league talent would be a good move for the Tigers.
Highly rated starting pitcher Jackson Jobe is almost major league ready too.
Caution with a long term extension. 2 seasons left gives you time to go for a WS trophy.
They need more young impact hitters.
105 years for a sextillion billion dollars
What would you do for a Klondyke bar?
Opt out city. Players are being allowed to have their cake and eat it too.
If I had to guess, an 8 year deal with opt outs after year 3 and 5.
Never gonna happen.
There shouldn’t be a comma before “as well.”
MLB Teams With Highest Payrolls in 2025
RANK TEAM TOTAL PAYROLL
1 Phillies $225,707,617
2 Yankees $193,226,666
3 Braves $182,500,000
4 Dodgers $174,201,666
5 Angels $150,458,094
6 Padres $150,385,453
7 Astros $146,433,333
8 Cubs $143,825,000
9 Rangers $143,010,000
10 Blue Jays $125,564,285
11 Mets $123,250,000
12 Giants $120,249,999
13 Red Sox $109,944,847
14 D-backs $107,025,000
15 Cardinals $105,166,667
16 Twins $99,476,190
17 Mariners $97,283,334
18 Rockies $96,499,285
19 Royals $82,727,070
20 Brewers $70,800,000
21 Reds $59,033,333
22 Guardians $52,708,428
23 Rays $50,921,212
24 Pirates $42,161,500
25 Tigers $41,893,333
26 Orioles $41,200,000
27 White Sox $40,350,000
28 Nationals $32,216,429
29 Marlins $31,550,000
30 Athletics $4,500,000