The Tigers recently attempted to extend reigning AL Cy Young award winner Tarik Skubal, according to a report from Evan Petzold of the Detroit Free Press, but Petzold suggests the offer from Detroit was not competitive and the sides ultimately did not come close to hammering out a deal. It’s certainly understandable that Detroit would have interest in locking up their ace long-term, as they’re just beginning to enter their competitive window and have just two years of team control over the southpaw remaining before he can depart in free agency. With that being said, Skubal is a client of Scott Boras, who typically encourages his players to test free agency to maximize value, and the lefty certainly has plenty of leverage coming off a 2024 season that saw him win the AL Triple Crown and become the club’s first Cy Young award winner since Max Scherzer in 2013.
That’s not to say an extension is necessarily impossible, however. A handful of high-profile Boras clients, including Jose Altuve and Xander Bogaerts, have previously signed extensions with their clubs prior to testing free agency. And there’s certainly precedent for Cy Young-caliber hurlers signing extensions, as well. The Tigers famously signed future Hall of Famer Justin Verlander to two extensions across his 13 years in Detroit, the first being a five-year, $80MM contract that bought out his final two arbitration years and three free agent years prior to the 2010 season, and the second being a five-year deal signed prior to the 2013 season that covered the 2015-19 seasons and guaranteed Verlander an additional $140MM.
While Verlander’s first contract stands as a fairly straightforward comparison point to Skubal given that the lefty is also two years away from free agency and Verlander had just finished third in AL Cy Young award voting prior to the deal being signed, that deal is a decade and a half old at this point and prices around the league have risen considerably in the years since then. Given that, Verlander’s second extension may serve as a more accurate point of comparison when discussing the possibility of another Cy Young winner extending his stay with the Tigers given the high-end deals players such as Gerrit Cole (nine years, $324MM), Stephen Strasburg (seven years, $245MM), and Zack Greinke (six years, $206.5MM) have signed over the past decade.
Perhaps the best comparison for Skubal’s situation can be found in right-hander Jacob deGrom. deGrom signed an extension with the Mets prior to the 2019 season that covered the 2020-23 seasons. The deal guaranteed him $120.5MM in new money and included a club option for 2024 that could have raised the total guarantee to $153MM over five years. More importantly, the deal afforded deGrom the opportunity to opt out following the 2022 season. That deal was inked in a very similar situation to the one Skubal and the Tigers find themselves in now; deGrom was just two years from free agency and had secured his first career Cy Young award on the heels of an otherworldly season that saw him post a 1.70 ERA and 1.98 FIP in 217 innings of work.
That season was even more dominant than the one Skubal posted in 2024, and deGrom at the time had a much less checkered injury history than Skubal currently does. While those factors may suggest that deGrom’s deal ought to be a target for the lefty to shoot for, he has one major factor on his side that could substantially boost his earning power beyond even that of deGrom: age. Skubal just turned 28 last week, but deGrom was nearly three years older then Skubal during his Cy Young-winning age-30 season back in 2018. In other words, Skubal is not only younger now than deGrom was at the time of his extension, but he’ll actually still be younger than deGrom was at the time of the deal when he’s slated to reach free agency following the 2026 season.
Being able to market an age-30 season in free agency is a huge boost to a player’s overall value on the open market, particularly for pitchers who teams are often hesitant to guarantee lengthy deals for. Cole’s massive nine-year deal with the Yankees came prior to his age-29 season, suggesting that a $300MM payday could be a stretch for Skubal, but Strasburg was a year older than Skubal will be upon reaching free agency when he secured his $245MM contract on the open market and even had a similarly checkered injury history to the southpaw. Strasburg’s deal wound up being among the worst contracts in recent memory due to subsequent injury woes, which could make clubs skeptical of replicating it, but it’s easy to imagine Skubal landing a deal north of $200MM should he reach free agency during the 2026-27 offseason.
That’s a hefty price tag for the Tigers to contend with, but it’s certainly feasible they could put a compelling offer on the table. After all, the club has just two players signed to guaranteed contracts for the 2026 season: Javier Baez and Colt Keith. Keith won’t make more than $5.3MM annually until and unless his club option for the 2030 season is picked up, while Baez’s $23.3MM AAV will drop off the books following the 2027 season. For a club that was able to afford hefty annual salaries to both Verlander and Miguel Cabrera a decade ago, it should be fairly manageable to commit an AAV in the $25-30MM range to Skubal.
Skubal is projected by MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz for an $8MM salary via arbitration this year, and would presumably be in line for a healthy raise next winter as well. If the Tigers were willing to guarantee Skubal a combined $25MM for his final two trips through arbitration, then perhaps a seven-year, $175MM extension could make sense for both sides. Such a deal would guarantee Skubal a total payday through his age-34 season that approaches the $200MM guarantee he could hope to land in free agency, while allowing the Tigers to lock up their ace through his prime years. It’s also possible that Skubal could take a page out of deGrom’s playbook and sacrifice some total guarantee in order to get a second bite at the apple in the form of an opt-out, perhaps following his age-32 season in 2029.
A hell of a lot of money, biggest in history if I had to guess
Except he’s already had more major surgeries than fully healthy MLB seasons. Idk if I could be the one to hand him a 10 year deal
Yeah I doubt he lands the longest term deal but he will definitely get the highest AAV
Maybe like 45 mil a year to pass scherzer and verlanders deals a few years ago
The Tigers were in this situation before with Max Scherzer. They chose to sign Zimmerman instead. How did that work out for Tigers and how about for the Nationals?
The Tigers better do what they can to sign Skubal long term. They have one of the lowest payrolls right now (even with Baez on the roster).
If I were him, I would load it full of opt-outs so I don’t get stuck in Detroit.
@damnyankees. Haven’t been to Detroit recently huh? If you don’t believe the fear mongering and visit the place, you’d see it’s really turned a corner.
What would it take? Only Skubal can answer that question. It takes the team offering a contract and Skubal accepting it. Any else is just mindless speculation and time filler until Spring Training begins.
Did you come here in November looking for relevant cold hard facts?
Hey it’s not like the site has the word rumor in it’s name……
$1 Billion with an opt out in year in 2046
And Tax Defferals with a 401K Plan
1000 Bitcoin
DR Evil aka Old Man Boras…One Million Dollars!!!
I would be skeptical about negotiating a contract after he’s had a career season like this. If he repeats 2024 in 2025 then it isn’t really a career year. I would want to see him do that prior to working out a deal. And with Boras as an agent he probably won’t be signed until June of 2027.
ERA+ was slightly lower in 2023 than 2024, but all the other peripherals were actually a little better. Smaller sample size with less innings obviously, but it’s not like 2024 was out of no where.
Still, with his injury history, I wouldn’t do it.
I wouldn’t say out of nowhere but still it’s a career year.
8 years and $250M is probably what it will take for Skubal to forgo free agency. If he hits free agency healthy and still pitching well, a 6 year deal would be pretty likely. So add 2 years for his last arb years. He probably could get close to that if not more if he were on the open market right now. And Bora$$ isn’t going to advise his client to sign at this point unless it is at market or above.
If I were the Tigers, my first offer is what the Red Sox gave Chris Sale in 2019 (5 years, $145 million). Skubal doesn’t have the track record that Sale did entering that extension but is younger. He’s only had 1 season throwing 150 innings but if he bet on himself and was at the top of the Cy Young race in 2025, he’s going to get offers closer to what David Price got from Boston (7/$210M).
With all his surgeries, they should be looking to offload him before he comes down to reality.
If I were an Illitch, I’d tack on an extra $1 on all Hot-n-Readys through the duration of the contract and call it the Tarik Tax.
Ok. Now that the press says they failed to sign him, the next article will be what will it take to trade for Skubal.
6/200
Skubal had a tremendous yr
But look @ all the pitchers mentioned here with huge contracts- grienke cole strasburg degrom
None of them lived up to their deals, strasburg retired early, degrom has thrown 40 innings in 2 yrs . Glasnow is another guy with a big contract and always hurt. Buyer beware
Tigers should just go year to year with him, signing a pitcher at this age is usually a disaster.
You can’t. After puberty, your growth plates stop making new none. He’s plenty tall enough as it is anyway…
I wrote something about this a few days ago….so this is Boras as an agent, you are going to have to start stupid high with what Boras is asking for….Boras is, from what I can guess from his FA history, is ASKING anywhere from $50–70M per and something like 12-15 years. This does not mean that is what Skubal will get, but Boras likes to set that bar so high right off the bat….it’s easier to work down than up when negotiating contracts.
So, going off of previous FA deals involving Boras, it is probably going to be something like 10yrs @$35-45M per… If this wasn’t Boras we were dealing with, I would have a more sane outlook, but Boras is asking 10 years $350M for Bergman who is 30….so you have to figure he’s looking for a longer contract for more money for someone who is 2 years younger and is one of the best lefty power pitchers in the game.
You guys are thinking too low, I believe. X # of years for $400 MM. That seems the correct figure to me.
He can probably land a similar Gerritt Cole deal if he replicates last season. He’s not surpassing JV and Max in AAV.
Ilitch has the money so just pony up and really show the fans that they will keep homegrown talent. They signed Keith and need to sign Greene and Carp too and fill the other gaps. The competitive window is NOW!
Before looking at Skubal’s age I thought Witt Jr’s deal seemed to be a good comp for what it would take to lock up Skubal. 11-12 years and $280-300 million. Maybe as large as Yamamoto’s deal.
Now I am thinking 8-9 years and $240-270 million. At the end of the deal he would have just finished his age 36 season.
If its only 6 years then I would guess over 200 mil fairly easily.