Prospects in baseball aren't a sure thing, but they're fun to dream on. As fans, pundits and onlookers of all varieties -- heck, even for team employees -- it's easy to get swept up in what might eventually be. There's nothing more alluring than the idea of a potential star-caliber player, or even a solid regular, earning at or close to the league minimum with six or even seven years of club control ahead of them. The more players of this ilk on which a team can successfully convert, the more space there is to be aggressive in free agency, in extending homegrown talent and in acquiring players on notable salary in trades.
The flip side of that equation, however, lies in the moves teams sometimes decline to make. Trades are passed on and free agents looked over, as that promise of a better tomorrow looms on the horizon. "There's no such thing as a pitching prospect" (or "TINSTAAPP") is a common idiom in baseball circles. For every Juan Soto, Gunnar Henderson, Jackson Merrill and Jackson Chourio, there are ten others whose names fall to the wayside and eventually change hands via a minor trade/claim or pass through waivers entirely. Prospects are fun to dream on ... but more often than not, they're just that: a dream.
Every team is susceptible to this. Look up and down the league and you'll probably find at least one former top prospect among each club's crop of minor league free agents this offseason, along with several more who cleared waivers and were assigned to their clubs' top affiliate in hopes they reestablish something.
This isn't intended to be a knock on the Yankees in particular. Again, it's a common problem. But the Yankees currently have four out-of-options players who've yet to establish themselves and who have ranked among their top 10 prospects in the organization within the past three years. None has established himself, and now each is facing an uncertain future, particularly with the looming Nov. 19 deadline to protect players from next month's Rule 5 Draft. The Yankees have five open 40-man spots at the moment, so perhaps they don't feel a huge push to free up some space, but those vacancies will be filled by prospects, free agent signings and trade acquisitions -- all beginning within the next few days. Someone's going to have to get pushed off eventually.
Again, other clubs have this issue every year. But in 2024 specifically, there's no club with quite as many out-of-options players on the roster bubble as the Yankees.
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I’d like to see the Cards prospects looked this way also. I’m big into the Cardinals prospects so all info is welcome.
My O’s could buy low on all these fellas
The Yankee overrate adjustment factor (YOAF) is currently calculated as 1.165. So if their guy has an OPS of .800, he is seen as equivalent to any other team’s player with an OPS of .932.
Am I the only one who did the math and saw that with about 7 hits, one of which might be a home run, Peraza’s dismal MLB numbers would match superstar Volpe’s full season?
I wish I could cancel my subscription to the athletic and sign up for this instead.
The Yankees had very little success developing home grown hitters.the last home grown hitters who posted consecutive 2+ war seasons for the Yankees where judge and then torres.
The Yankees had minor league success and there have been reports that they have a good process and their minor league hitters have good metrics but really all they got where some flash in the pan hot half seasons like andujar, nobody sticked long term.
Hopefully the current prospect generation will do better as this lack of development success has hurt the franchise a lot, they were forced to rely on old, expensive, injury prone guys and when they got hurt the replacements where bad. A franchise like the Yankees shouldn’t have to put up with an 80 wrc+ replacement in an outfield corner when a starter goes down but that is what happened several times the last couple years.
I’ve been waiting for ‘The Martian’ for 2 years now.
Thought he would have burned up MLB the last half of 2024.
If MLB had anything close to fair revenue sharing, the Yankees under Hal Cashman would be like the Jets and Giants.
Prospects have a hard time making the Yankee teams because they want a sure thing.. Most of the time they trade or sign free agents to full almost every opening. When prospects come to the majors they are usually on a short leash
Yet, ironically, the ones they sign are injured and/or aging vets that can’t perform anymore.
Yankees seems to overhyped their prospects and various publications buy into it.
The Yankees overrate their prospects so they can trade them for established great players, prospect writers overrate Yankee prospects in order to placate or sell subscriptions to Yankee fans.
That narrative would work if they actually did that. But they don’t trade them, and when they do, it’s rarely, if ever, for great players.
Usually their prospects are so diminished by the time they trade them that it doesn’t make a difference.