On the heels of last night’s surprise signing, here are three things we’ll be keeping an eye on around the baseball world throughout the day today:
1. Snell switches sides in Dodgers-Giants rivalry:
The first top-of-the-market domino fell last night when the Dodgers and left-hander Blake Snell agreed to a five-year, $182MM deal that includes deferred money that drops the net present value of the deal to the $160-165MM range. It’s the southpaw’s latest stop in what has become a tour of California in recent years. After winning the NL Cy Young award for San Diego in 2023, Snell found a disappointing market in free agency and ultimately settled for a two-year, $62MM deal with the Giants last winter. That contract, of course, included an opt-out this winter. The lefty dealt with injuries and struggled early in the season but was baseball’s best pitcher from July onward, prompting him to opt out and again test his fortunes.
With a deal for a front-of-the-rotation arm now in the books, what’s next for L.A. this winter? The outfield seems likely to be the next order of business in L.A. with Mookie Betts poised to return to the infield in 2025, leaving Andy Pages as the only full-time outfielder who currently figures to be on the club’s Opening Day roster (although Tommy Edman could very well be the club’s regular center fielder with Betts back in the infield). The club is known to be involved on at least some level in the Juan Soto bidding, and there’s mutual interest in a reunion with Teoscar Hernandez. Reuniting with longtime franchise face Clayton Kershaw once again appears to be on the docket, as does upgrading a bullpen that saw right-hander Daniel Hudson and fellow righty Blake Treinen become a free agent earlier this month.
2. Will any other major players sign early?
Between Snell’s deal last night and the pact between Anaheim and southpaw Yusei Kikuchi that broke on Monday morning, the hot stove has picked up in a hurry this week. Thanksgiving could slow the momentum a bit when it arrives tomorrow, but at this point it would hardly be a surprise if a few more significant pieces came off the board before executives arrive in Dallas for the Winter Meetings in the evening on December 8. The deals for Snell and Kikuchi took two of the top six free agent starters off the market, so it stands to reason that the markets for Corbin Burnes, Max Fried, Jack Flaherty, and Sean Manaea could start to heat up in the coming days as well.
It’s also possible that the market begins to thaw on offense, however. The Soto sweepstakes have dominated the headlines in that part of the market to this point in the winter, and it seems increasingly likely he’ll have landed somewhere at least by the time the Winter Meetings conclude, if not sooner.
3. Will Arenado change hands?
In the early days of the offseason, reports out of St. Louis indicated the Cardinals would be trimming payroll and taking a potential step back this winter as they focus on youth and development for the 2025 season. That led to plenty of rumors regarding the availability of three veteran players: catcher Willson Contreras, right-hander Sonny Gray, and third baseman Nolan Arenado. Contreras and Gray both appear to be reluctant to waive their no-trade clauses and depart St. Louis, with Contreras even poised to move to first base in 2025 to accommodate the Cardinals’ youth movement as catchers Ivan Herrera and Pedro Pages stand poised to take on larger roles.
Arenado, however, has at least kept an open mind to the possibility, and the Cards have explored the market for him. Given Arenado’s stellar reputation with the glove and declining numbers at the plate, it would be something of a shock if any team actually wanted him to move across the diamond to first base, but he’s reportedly open to such a move in the right setting. Will a deal come together?
The Cardinals should have been grateful someone would take on salary from them to help reset.
Nobody is going to take that contract, sorry.
Yes.
Eat the salary for prospect capital, cards can afford it. They could trade with reds and take candelario, his 30 mil owed, send them arenado and gray and another 20 mil
That’s worth 3 top prospects atleast. Collier arroyo and petty. Thats a massive return ! And a mega jumpstart to their rebuild
I think both players waive no trade clause in that case too. Gray has history w reds and arenado will thrive hitting 3rd behind de la Cruz in that ballpark
Dude
This aint MLB the Show
Why would any Team trade 3 Prospects for 2 aging overpriced players?
To compete. Reds need a bat in the middle of that lineup and this trade would give them the best rotation and probably staff in the NL central.
I’m not saying reds should do it, just making the point that gray and arenado have a ton of value if cards are willing to eat their salary. Prospects are traded for 2 years of control all the time
Nick Krall would slam the phone down on that offer and rightly so.
Krall is an unqualified clown that only has a job bc his buddy owns the team. He’s on his 4th rebuild coming off a disastrous season. How does he even have a job ?
The “thumbs up” say it all with this string.
No.
I’d like to see Arenado try his hand a pitching, even if as a BP piece. Could come in and close some games. Make himself another two-way player.
Don’t be ridiculous
What’s ridiculous?
@Johnny Devil
What’s ridiculous is the clown replies to me and then puts me on mute so I can’t reply to the clown.
Since the Red Sox missed on Snell, they shouldn’t sign anyone unless it’s Jack Flaherty. Every other free agent’s “Meh” strikeout rates aren’t going to play in front of Boston’s terrible Infield Defense. Signing Max Fried or Corbin Burnes is just replacing the deck chairs with more expensive ones. I don’t think rearranging deck chairs has been taught at Yale since 1724, so I have faith that Craig wouldn’t do something so stupid.
Flaherty could not even carry Burnes jockstrap!
cooperhill: Would he want to?
I like this take. I’m disappointed to see Snell come off the board. Flaherty may be the best value left.
Flaherty is predicted to get a 100M deal. He signed a 1/14M deal last year. I’d bite on the new and improved Sean Manaea and those locks of love for value.
Snell went from vastly underrated last offseason to overrated this one. Baseball and it’s what have you done for me lately mentality smh
Crazy mentality huh?? You get paid when you’ve done something good, but your value sinks when there is risk and doubt. Totally unlike the real world I know.
I don’t want any part of Jack Flaherty if I’m Breslow. I don’t see much difference between Pivetta and Flaherty except Flaherty is younger and is going to cost a lot more than Pivetta.
Agreed Bruin. Go after Burnes and Eovaldi. Then look to improve defense and righty bats be it free agency or trades.
It’s critical that Boston signs one of Burnes or Fried to front the rotation and I would be fine adding Eovaldi or Bieber on top of that. It’s really important that Boston gets that tor guy or this is all just BS again. It’s the only way that the fans are going to believe this ownership anything short of one of those guys and once again it’s just lip service by ownership.
Fried’s ERA will be 4.50 in front of that defense. Burnes would be around 4.00. I’m not paying Burnes just because he won a Cy Young Award 4 years ago unless he starts throwing 99 again instead of 95
Depends on if Story can stay healthy and if they move Devers off third and DH him while spelling the new third baseman. Even if they keep Devers at third a healthy Story changes the infield defense.
Burnes is a horse he limits hard contact and HRs and he posts he will be fine. Flaherty would get shelled in Fenway very similar to Pivetta. If Detroit signs Pivetta he will have a huge year due to the fly balls that will go to die in that outfield. I don’t want any part of Flaherty at the price he’s going to cost.
Troy, I think from a psychological standpoint it’s imperative that Boston signs one of Burnes or Fried or trades for tor guy. The fan base is very restless and imo anything short of a perceived tor guy will be looked as same old same old
That’s why pitching AND improving the infield defense are needed along with the righty bats.
Missing out (if they were even in) on Snell means the Sox had better do something and darn fast. I have to believe their fans are getting completely fed up with the dog-and-pony show. But I said last winter that they should have pursued Flaherty and/or Lorenzen. I’d pass on Burnes.
Having to give prospects plus pay over 70M, then devalue Arenado by playing him out of position at 1b doesn’t make sense. His value lies in his still excellent defense at 3b.
Sounds like an appeal to the Padres who need a 1B.
The issue I have with Arenado (and other players) is that he is only concerned with winning now that he got paid. He chose to take money over signing with a perennial winner (and that’s perfectly fine – it was his choice though), and now is whining about not being part of a winning team.
Oftentimes players need to choose between getting the most money or being part of a win-now franchise – but don’t cry about losing when you could’ve taken slightly less immense wealth to win.
I don’t think he’s whining. The Cardinals went to him about a possible trade, not the other way.
Hm, okay, fair enough then. Thanks for clarifying that.
Oh he’s whining. Dude’s a whiner through and through. Completely self-obsessed.
Evidence? I often hear fans characterize the personalities of players, as if they know them. But since they don’t, these opinions are based on what, exactly?
STLKen maybe not with the Cards but he certainly did while with Colorado. That’s how he wound up in StL.
Who wouldn’t whine to get off of the Rockies.
If any needs a reset, it’s the Rockies.
Colorado was a contender when Arenado signed the contract in Colorado. As I understand it, he was given assurances they would take the steps necessary to win when he was negotiating the contract. Not long after that, the team switched gears and started a fire sale.
The same can be said about his opting into this current contract. He could have easily made $100 million more by opting out. MO flew to his home and gave him assurances the Cardinals would do what it took to be competitive. Now here we are again with the team shifting gears.
I don’t get the hate towards a player who has shown himself to be loyal as long as the team is trying to win. What 32 year old wants to part of a 5 year plan to winning?
Yankee Clipper
He chose to take money over signing with a perennial winner
===============================
The Cardinals are not a perennial winner?
Starting with 2000, they have been > .500 in 23 of 25 seasons, in the playoffs in 16 of 25 seasons, and have been in the WS 4x, and won the WS 2x.
JoeBrady: I was referring to the Rockies, and but if the Cards are a perennial winner, why would he want to go to a “winner” as many reports (by reputable folks like Ken Rosenthal) read.
Arenado and Helsley to Boston Yoshida, Cespedes (#7 BOS prospect) and another lower prospect would seem to work
probably not for the red sox.
Don’t think they would want Yoshida and his salary.
I don’t believe the Cardinals would be interested in swapping the Arenado contract for the Yoshida contract. The Yoshida contract calls for Yoshida to be paid $18 million per year in 2026 and 2027, while the Arenado contact calls for Arenado to be paid $16 million in 2026 and $15 million in 2027. The only savings for the Cardinals would be 2025, where the Yoshida contract calls for Yoshida to be paid $18 million, while the Arenado contract calls for Arenado to be paid $21 million. Then there would be the problem with the way Marmol uses the DH position. Yoshida is known to be a below average defensive outfielder, which makes him primarily a DH. Marmol is known to use the DH position to give the regular players a day of rest from the field, while still giving them at bats. If Marmol would change his strategy and use the DH position as a full time position for a player, it would likely be for Contreras in the event Contreras does not adapt well at the 1st base position.
Go wasn’t familiar with the front loaded contract for Arenado so if you aren’t getting any true salary relief trading Arenado for Masa it doesn’t make much sense from a Cardinal point of view. It made a lot more sense if they could save 12 million per year for the next three.
Arenado has more utility but comes at higher price tag than Masa. If Boston does trade for Arenado then they have to commit to moving Devers to 1b or DH. I’m not convinced Devers can play 1st. Bloom knows the farm like the back of his hand so maybe something can be worked out. I’m not trading any of the top 4 but Cespedes and another top 30 prospect might have some legs. It’s essentially a 12 million savings for the Cardinals for the next 3 years and we already know Bloom loves Masa. I could see this deal coming together.
Bruin: I don’t see the sox trading Cespedes in a deal even with Yoshida for one year of Helsley and a declining Arenando.
It only makes sense if they are going to put Arenado defensively at third and either move Devers to DH or 1B. I don’t really like moving Devers to first but if they traded for Arenado Devers isn’t going to be the third baseman. I think it would actually take more than just Cespedes since there isn’t any real money savings for the Cardinals due to the from loaded nature of Arenado’s contract.
Cespedes is a guy that Boston should look to trade he’s probably not a shortstop he might not even be an infielder. He hits the ball really hard but he hasn’t even played full season ball. I’m fine with trading him. Boston has a ton of prospects and some are going to have to be traded to address needs on the Red Sox roster. IMO Devers as a DH, Arenado as a third baseman reunited with his buddy Story on the left side with Casas at first and Grissom/Meidroth/Campbell at 2nd is a decent infield and the outfield should be elite defensively.
I’m just hopeful that Bloom wants his pet Masa back and something could be worked out within reason.
I don’t think I’d do that if I were the Cards, but it probably isn’t too far off, depending on the lower prospect.. Maybe a little bit of cash seals the deal?
But I like the structure a lot.
In my opinion, in the next CBA, deferals should be retoractively counted against the team’s payroll for luxury tax purposes.
The LA Dodgers are circumventing the rules in order to avoid larger tax bills.
Do you think dodger fans are critical of Trump when he does that ?
Aww, are you scared of mean orange man @big whiffa?
Do you think dodger fans are critical of Trump when he does that ?
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If Trump is running the Dodgers, then congratulations are in order.
@JoeBrady
ROFL!!!
@Doron
Get rid of any spending limits. If your team is too cheap to pay for talent, maybe they shouldn’t exist in the first place. I’d like to see a drop in the number of teams to bring back quality to players in the league. I feel like we’ve hit a point where the quality is in decline. Yes, there are some elite players but we’ve come to a point where teams are fielding AAA players. No one wants to pay MLB ticket prices to watch AAA players play.
When there’s such drastic imbalances in revenue there needs to be some limiting factor on payroll.
LA took in 6 times more TV revenue than NL Central champion Milwaukee. If we allow them to have 6 times the payroll that’s a ridiculous advantage that makes all but a handful of teams guaranteed feeders for the 3 or 4 teams capable of annually buying the right to compete for a title.
The leagues need a strict salary floor and a strict salary cap. Until this is accomplished the spending gap will continue to widen and deteriorate the competitiveness of the game. Many fans feel that they don’t have a chance for their team to be successful. MLB needs the young fans to have interest in the game and the current rules will push them away forever.
The MLB model is what it is. And it looks like the Dodgers are playing by the rules. Nothing unfair here.
To me, creating something like a salary cap or having a floor and or ceiling seems unlikely. IE the establishment folks part of the model are content/happy.
Looking for a league that values everyone competing on a level playing field? A start up league that would be based on an even playing field model to compete for the MLB dollar is probably the answer. But, geez, MLB is such a huge monopoly, I can’t fathom that happening.
@ Old York
What you are suggesting is more like contraction of the Majors.
I am for it.
There are 4-5 teams that have no business being Major League teams as far as spending is concerned, and they are essentially Billionaire welfare recipients.
There HAS to be a limit, and the limit needs to be sent down to the players.
I think that the salary demands of players nowadays is insane.
15-18 million for #4 starters, $16 million for closers without a 5-6 year track record of excellence. (I wonder what Salary a Prime Mo would command right now)
There is only so much money to go around, and the bow will break, and the cradle will fall.
There needs to be a floor and a stricter tax system. Nutting pocketing tens of millions of revenue sharing money each year is egregious.
Let’s not pretend that all teams having rich owners means that all teams generate the same revenue
For on
You need to examine the history of baseball deferral contracts. Goes back decades and decades. No one is circumventing the rules. They are using the rules that are there for all teams.
I agree but there should be a rule on the percentage allowed for deferrals. I’m not sure what that percent should be, but deferring 68M of 70M value is way too much.
I think instead of this there should be limits on the top market/revenue teams to use deferred money or they should be restricted from using it at all. Teams like the Dodgers, Yankees, Mets, Phillies, and Red Sox don’t need it. A team like Cleveland should be able to use it to keep stars like Jose Ramirez or the Pirates with Skenes should. Allow deferred money as a tool mid to low market teams can use to compete with the top ones.
@Fernando P.
Here Here.
I’m not sure everyone understands what the deferrals are. They see big numbers, but that doesn’t matter at all. The A’s could sign me tomorrow and defer 50% of my salary to 2025 and pay me 4.3% on the deferral.
Everyone can do it.
Doron: Those are the terms both sides agreed on. In the next CBA negotiations, it will be interesting to see which side is for deferrals counting for luxury tax purposes and which side is not.
It won’t even be an issue.
The true cost of the contract is being used to calculate CBT payroll. The cost of money is a real thing. Would you give someone $1 million today as long as they give back $1 million in 20 years? Of course not. You’d need 3 times that much just to break even on that loan.
I wonder what arrenado would look like at 2B
Would his defense still be elite?
Cause if he can switch from 3B to 2B and provide as much range and defense he does at 3B at 2B I’m sure there’d be quite a few teams interested if he can somehow show or display elite defense at 2B during workouts or something for team.
In any event I think arrenado makes his way to Philly. They’re discussing moving Bohm and he’d provide excellent defense for them at 3B
Are Andy and Pedro Pages related?
One is from Cuba and the other from Venezuela so I’m guessing not, or at least not closely.
But does one of them have a brother named Yellow?
Yellow is a full blooded American!
you can count on the Pirates not signing anyone of talent, they will wait until the dumpster diving starts and brag about signing players no one else wanted
Is it just me, or is this off season more exciting with a greater number of interesting stories than in the past several years? Maybe it just because my team (Boston) appears to actually be involved this year.
It’s just you
Let’s see the Dodgers saved about 3 or 4 M a year by giving Snell deferred payments. That’s still $32M a year that less wealthy clubs wouldn’t think of giving him..
The Dodgers are willing to spend for what they want. Can’t fault them for that.
Is it fair? Were the Yankees fair when they were doing the same thing?
I don’t know.
Aren’t the Rockies still paying part of Arenado’s salary?
After some thought, I don’t understand the appeal of a No-Trade-Clause. The team doesn’t want you and you want to stay? Awkward. More appealing would be a Trade-Me-Clause. Cal Raleigh shouldn’t talk to the Mariners unless he has a TMC in his contract
Arenado to the Padres actually works! Flexibility with Manny moving to DH, as he gets worn down. Both can platoon at third, Sounds crazy but it could work.
Alleviate some injuries for both players north of 30.
3/70 for Arenado who actually plays, has a great glove, and league average bat looks like a bargain next to the 2/76 owed Rendon who does none of those three.
Anyone have a plan for convincing the players to accept a salary cap in the next CBA? Other than offering a salary floor, which is not a real plan because they have already rejected it. No one needs a salary cap except for miserly owners.
I think it’s hilarious how Boston fans think you’ll get Arenado for Yoshida. gtfo. Why in God’s name would they trade a perennial GG third baseman for a DH that is an average bat, coming off an injury? If Arenado is done, so be it, but I don’t think he is. I get that you would rather have Arenado than Yoshida… guess what, so would St Louis. I hope St Louis keeps Arenado. But if they don’t, they sure as hell won’t trade him for Yoshida.
As usual, someone is going to be left on the outside looking in the bag. RedSox have been there three years running now, but to be fair, they have paid so many that forgot to show up
Arrenado had some great years for STL, but that is how these Ks work. Euphoria early with the pain and required medicine at the end. Redbirds don’t have much of a choice w/ Arrenado in his 34,35,36 yr old seasons. Eat money to move him for a small return or enjoy his death march the next few seasons. I subscribe to the what will be done eventually, must be done now theory. I would move him now for whatever is deemed the best offer before ST starts. It can always get worse.