On a particularly busy day on the offseason calendar, here are three things we’ll be keeping an eye on around the baseball world today:
1. Rule 5 deadline day:
One of the under-the-radar busiest transactional days of the baseball year, this is the final day for teams to set their 40-man rosters in advance of the Rule 5 Draft (which takes place on December 11). Plenty of clubs will be facing some tricky decisions on which eligible prospects will be protected from the R5 with roster spots, and creating that roster space will result in some DFAs, releases, or perhaps trades of players already taking up room on the 40-man.
Teams have until 5pm CT today to finalize their rosters, so expect a pretty big flurry of moves to come later this afternoon. Eligible players who aren’t added to the 40-man could find themselves changing organizations on December 11, and there’s risk for teams in potentially losing an interesting prospect for virtually nothing.
2. Qualifying offer decisions due:
The 13 players who received qualifying offers from their teams have until 3pm CT to officially decide whether or not to accept or reject the one-year, $21.05MM contract. Nick Martinez has already agreed to accept his QO and remain with the Reds, but it appears that he’ll be the only member of the 13-player class to take the deal. As per recent reports, Sean Manaea, Luis Severino, and Nick Pivetta are all likely to reject the qualifying offers in search of longer-term contracts in free agency. While there was perhaps a bit of question as to whether any of those pitchers could take the one-year payday, there is zero doubt that the other nine free agents issued QOs (Willy Adames, Pete Alonso, Alex Bregman, Corbin Burnes, Teoscar Hernandez, Max Fried, Anthony Santander, Juan Soto, and Christian Walker) will reject the offer and test the open market.
If a player turns down the qualifying offer, there are consequences for both his former team and his next team, assuming the player signs elsewhere. The free agent’s former team will receive a compensatory pick in the 2025 draft, with the placement of that pick depending on the team’s status as a revenue-sharing team or luxury-tax payor. Likewise, clubs that sign a qualified free agent face a penalty in the form of surrendering money from the international draft pool or giving up at least one draft pick. While the QO penalty won’t stop a team from signing a superstar like Soto, we’ve seen in the past how rejecting a qualifying offer can effect offers for free agents who aren’t quite at the top of the market, so it will be interesting to see which (if any) of this year’s class could be impacted.
3. Manager Of The Year announced:
Each league will announce the winner of the Manager of the Year awards tonight at 5pm CT. All three American League finalists come from the AL Central, as the Guardians’ Stephen Vogt, the Royals’ Matt Quatraro, and the Tigers’ A.J. Hinch all led their teams from losing records in 2023 to playoff appearances in 2024. The improvement was especially pronounced in Kansas City, after Quatraro lost 106 games in his first season as the Royals’ skipper. Hinch led a big turn-around just within the 2024 campaign itself, as Detroit went from also-rans to an ALDS berth after going 31-13 over its last 44 regular-season games. Vogt had big shoes to fill in replacing Terry Francona in Cleveland, but Vogt made an immediate impact as the Guards won the AL Central and then advanced all the way to the ALCS.
Over in the National League, Padres skipper Mike Shildt is looking to become a two-time winner of the award, as he previously won the MOY in his previous job as the Cardinals’ manager in 2019. In his first season in San Diego, Shildt brought the Padres to a 93-win performance and then to the NLDS, where the club lost a heartbreaking five-game series against the eventual World Series champion Dodgers. Carlos Mendoza took the Mets a step further to the NLCS in his first year as a big league manager, as the Mets won 89 games and narrowly secured a wild card berth in what was initially expected to be something of a rebuild year for the organization. Expectations were also somewhat limited for the Brewers in the wake of Burnes being traded, Brandon Woodruff’s injury, and Craig Counsell’s departure, yet Pat Murphy kept the ship on course in his first year as Milwaukee’s manager. The longtime Brewers bench coach stepped into the big chair and immediately led the Crew to another NL Central crown.
I’m so surprised Aaron Boone isn’t a candidate for manager of the year, yet again. Listening to the Yankees FO you’d think he was manager of the century.
Clip – Honest question, if he didn’t hit “the homerun” would he have been hired as Yankees manager?
I’m trying to pull a positive from a very bad 2003 memory for me. LOL
FPG, honestly, no he doesn’t even make it past the first round of interviews, imo. He also worked in the booth as a TV commentator covering Yankees games as well, which didn’t hurt.
That’s true Clip, but is there any worse award than Manager of the Year? There’s absolutely no way to accurately rate who is the best manager. Managing a mid-market or lower team gives an inside track. A surprise year, likely having nothing to do with the manager is another. And why are there so few back-to-back winners. Why don’t we see someone win it five straight years? Do they lose their great managing skills by winning it? It’s the one award show I tune out. Can’t even tell you who won last year. The next most useless award: Comeback player of the year.
Manager of the Year is pretty much “we thought this team would be bad but it wasn’t. There must be a reason why.”
Boone has the top payroll in his league by far. Those managers will never win the award.
Buck Showalter had that in 2022 and won.
“Manager of the Year” for choking away the NL East in the final week of the season, then getting smoked by San Diego in the wild card round.
ChuckyNJ: Settle down, Beavis. The manager can’t play for the players.
Of course, if you listen to Yankees fans (like me) we are pretty darn sure that Manager of the Century isn’t exactly applicable to Boone. Doesn’t even make the short list. Or the long list,
Is Vaughn Grissom Rule 5 Eligible? This would be the easiest way to move on and start clean. We know it was a misfire. Craig knows it. Move forward and make a serious run at Adames and have him play 2B until Story gets hurt
Troy – Grissom is on the 40-man roster therefore not eligible for Rule 5.
And he has far too much value right now to just let him walk. One injury-plagued season doesn’t mean you give up on a 23-year-old.
The Sox would have no problem trading him if they wanted to do so.
It’s the part where he had an honest chance at the 2B job but was more injured than Trevor Story (at age 23) that makes me want him long gone so he doesn’t convolute any plans
And thank you for answering if he is eligible or not. My wish that he was only works if Craig leaves him unprotected.
There is no age-restriction on injury. Young players get hurt all the time. Some older players rarely get hurt. Age has nothing to do with it. The only question is if it was a “freak injury” or he gets tagged with the dreaded “injury prone” label that will likely wreck his career.
Totally agree FPG it’s not time to move on he had leg injuries until close to the end of the season. Once he started to heal he looked like a different hitter in AAA Worcester and then briefly back up in the bigs. He’s got the inside track for starting 2nd baseman next year but he has to stay healthy which has proven difficult for him.
I bet the Red Sox will give him one more chance until Mayer is called up
I believe he would not be eligible for the rule 5 draft due to service time, but the Sox would first need to take him off the 40 man roster which would require a DFA – so teams could claim him there.
Honestly – hated the trade return when it happened, but it needed to happen. Sale being healthy is an anamoly and I love it, but if he was in Boston and got hurt again (most likely outcome, he would have gotten hurt in the weirdest way) then the team gets roasted because the extension was literally worthless.
His value is at an all time low, so the best thing to do would be play him, let him recoup some value, and then trade him freeing up spots for the younger, better players.
Even without Grissom, no reason to go after Adames. Spend that money on a true top of the rotation arm. The team has enough good position players, and they will not get back a pitcher like Burnes/Fried/Flahrety/Manaea in a trade without paying a kings ransom.
A lot of making room for suspects today. Who gets DFAed in the process?
christian Walker is underrated, he’s easily a top five 1st baseman in the league.
And b/c of his age, he won’t be paid like it. That should be attractive to just about every mid-market team and up that has a need.
I think he’ll get a high AAV and short term, something like $35M over two years. His bat plus defense on a short term limit risk while adding upside.
Its crazy, I think Walker has aT least 3 years left maybe 2, sign him to a 2 year deal with an option for a 3rd year if he does well.
He has amazing defense as well as great hitting….yet…nobody seems to be super interested.
they will be- but this is his only real run through FA- so i can see him pushing for as long of a contract as possible. I can see 3 at 20m per (60m total) as a high end for him, if you get past that, the extra years are going to have almost no value.
The other half is that 1b is not where smart teams spend anymore. Finding a decent 1b is not hard, and many 1b that should be in the bigs are non tendered every season
As long as Walker gets out of the NL West, I will be satisfied. Did you know that he has hit the more homers against the Rockies than any other active player. 25 homers in only 88 games against Colorado. Hopefully he signs with the Yankees or some other team that they’ll only see 3 times a year.
You just made a serious case for COL signing him, if nothing else b/c of the run differential.
It seems like Walker homers every night at Dodger Stadium. send that dude to the A.L.
Yeah he actually 27 homers against the Dodgers too. The guy has 147 career homers and almost 40% of them are against just two teams. Really weird thing is that he has only hit 6 career homers against the Giants in about the same number of games. That is just weird.
All good choices. I like Vogt in the AL & Murphy in the NL.
This award is almost as much of a farce as the gold glove.
I agree. They are all worthy of winning the award. I would choose Mendoza and Quatraro as their teams were the most surprising to me
I’d pick Vogt in the AL and Mendoza in the NL. But plenty of good choices this year.
This award is the only one where I could see ANY of the choices being a good one. I would pick Quatraro and Murphy personally, but I honestly wouldn’t be upset with any of the other choices. Except for Shildt, but that is just because I am conditioned to not want the Padres to win anything.
Hinch should get it. Vogt inherited a good roster when Francona (temporarily) retired. Hinch took a team nobody thought was going anywhere and put together a solid run.
Dave Roberts should be MOY in the NL. His unorthodox strategy in the playoffs of resting his top relievers in some games even if it meant taking a loss is a big part of what won them the World Series. How often can you say a manager had that much of an impact? So Shildt is a finalist because his team added an ace and some other good players and got 11 more wins? How does that have anything to do with the effectiveness of the manager?
This was Roberts’s easiest regular season, IMO. Historically, his biggest challenge is getting players on a team with a surplus of talent to individually accept smaller roles because of the front office’s emphasis on platooning. This season he had 7 full time position starters to plug and play. Yes there were pitching issues but that was solved mainly by the front office providing layers of MLB-quality depth.
Postseason has NOTHING to do with the award.
The playoffs don’t factor into the award voting, I believe the ballots are due before it starts.
And I don’t really think Roberts is worthy of manager of the year, by all accounts the team underperformed in the regular season. I believe most places had them projected to win more games than they actually did. And yes they had injuries, but so did everyone else. When you spend $1+billion in one off-season, your team should be able to handle the injuries.
Watching for the Cubs moves today. Caissie and Aliendo have to be sure fire guys to be elevated to the 40 man. Cowles is on my above 50/50 list and BJ Murray is a definite maybe.
Big collection of guys that can be DFAd or non-tendered ahead of Friday’s deadline for that (Davis, Wingenter, Madrigal, Mastro, Wisdom, Mervis, Tauchman, Hollowell, Alzolay) to make room for any additions.
At 40 now so need at least a one for one swap.
Wisdom and Madrigal continue to get roster spots, Hoyer loves those guys…
when the crunch includes Mervis, i am not so sure. I loved Madrigal as a prospect, but he basically showed all of the risks in that profile (basically Dustin Pedrioa if everything pans out). Never got anything more than a slap hitting, defensively limited player.
I think Cowles gets Madrigal’s spot. Mastrobuoni and Tauchman get offered arbitration. I hope that they reach an agreement with Alzolay for a minor league deal with an opt-out so they can keep him off the 40-man procedurally until the 60-day IL opens in spring training.
More importantly, who we got for Not-Manager of the Year Award? Pedro Grifol (formerly CWS) and Oli Marmol (STL, still somehow)?
Rule 5 scurrying around is always fun…the weird, quiet trades, the distant hopes, and once in a while the “shrewd pick”.
As for the QO, ugh. At least a few of these guys should seriously think about taking the high AAV-for-one-year and get back in the FA market next year without the QO drag. Is 2/$32M better than one at $21.1 and back into the market? I guess it depends on age.
Rule 5 is exciting for rebuilding teams. Anthony Santander is the prime example right now, but there have been countless others over the years. You may steal a mid rotation arm or a middle of the order bat that will be ready when your team is turning around.
The QO stuff, it depends. for a lot of guys, there is safety in that 2nd year. The fringe guys, it is using this as their platform year. They may never have another platofrm year like this. Many also a minor injury away from being out of the league- so that 2nd year is very meaningful to give them some leash. I think that is pretty much the floor of the alternative deals these guys would pass on a QO for (2 years 35ish million), at that point the draft pick is likely only costing them a few million. For those guys this may be their only big contract.
I’ll get booed for this, but none of these guys did a better managerial job in the N.L. than Dave Roberts, who held the Dodgers pitching staff together with chewing gum, paper clips and a prayer. by the end of the year, the Padres were the better team. He especially managed his butt off in the postseason, with only three healthy starter arms from which to choose. They used 40 pitchers this season. Incredible. Tip of my cap.
Steve – i am not booing you, but a manager that has Ohtani, Betts,…. will NEVER win mgr of the year. Francona should have won in 2004, but he had Manny, Ortiz, Pedro, Schilling….
The Dodgers not winning the World Series this year would have been almost mgr malpractice.
Dave mentioned during one of his interviews that, he implied, he wasn’t going to manage like he had in the past. I think he meant using just analytics, and it showed, he has a championship.
BREAKING NEWS: There will be at least one Soto article today.
That damn Mario Soto always looking for the spotlight!!!