On the heels of an early-morning signing, here are three things we’ll be keeping an eye on around the baseball world today:
1. Rookie of the Year announced:
The four major BBWAA awards are being announced this week, and today things kick off with the Rookie of the Year announcement. In the NL, Pirates righty Paul Skenes and Padres outfielder Jackson Merrill are the leading contenders, with Brewers outfielder Jackson Chourio rounding out the finalists in one of the stronger rookie classes in recent memory. Meanwhile, in the AL, Orioles outfielder Colton Cowser is generally considered to be a slight favorite over Yankees right-hander Luis Gil and Yankees catcher Austin Wells for the award. The winners are set to be announced at 5pm CT this evening.
Today’s awards come with additional intrigue beyond the hardware itself, as well. Skenes did not receive a full year of service time in 2024 due to his debut being held off until mid-May, but he’ll earn that full year of MLB service if/when he finishes in the top two of Rookie of the Year voting. Meanwhile, the Padres, Orioles, and Yankees have a chance to earn Prospect Promotion Incentive picks. The Padres will be awarded a PPI pick if Merrill wins the NL award this evening, while the Orioles or Yankees would be awarded a pick if Cowser or Wells respectively win in the AL. Skenes, Gil, and Chourio are all unable to earn their clubs PPI picks for a variety of reasons: Skenes wasn’t rostered long enough to garner a full year of MLB service as previously mentioned, while Gil was not featured on two qualifying top 100 prospects lists and Chourio signed a pre-debut extension with the Brewers, rendering him ineligible for a pick.
2. QO Decisions looming:
The deadline for players to accept the Qualifying Offer is tomorrow, and this weekend saw a pair of reports regarding players on the bubble of the QO decision: Reds right-hander Nick Martinez is expected to accept the one-year offer, while Mets righty Luis Severino is expected to join Red Sox right-hander Nick Pivetta in rejecting the offer. That trio of players have generally been regarded as the three most likely to accept a QO among the players to whom it was extended. Obviously, top-of-the-market players like Juan Soto and Corbin Burnes are certain to reject the QO as they search for nine-figure contracts in free agency, but could a mid-level free agent such as Christian Walker or Sean Manaea surprise the baseball world and accept?
Even if all the remaining players intend to reject their QO and test free agency, the looming deadline could serve as a springboard for negotiations on a multi-year deal, either with their current club or a new one. Left-hander Tyler Anderson and first baseman Anthony Rizzo are among the recent examples of players who signed multi-year deals after being tagged with the QO but before the deadline to accept or reject it.
3. Soto to meet with the Yankees:
Speaking of Soto, the market’s most sought-after free agent met with a contingent from the Mets led by owner Steve Cohen over the weekend. That comes on the heels of Soto reportedly meeting with the Red Sox and Blue Jays. Today, Jon Heyman of the New York Post notes that Soto is scheduled to meet with the incumbent Yankees, where the reigning AL champs are set to make their pitch to Soto and agent Scott Boras on why he should stay in the Bronx alongside fellow outfield star Aaron Judge. These early meetings between Soto and clubs have seemingly been largely introductory in nature without formal offers being made or figures exchanged, though that may not be the case for the Yankees given the fact that Soto is already plenty familiar with the organization. Will today’s meeting get the market for the winter’s biggest free agent moving?
The Yankees shouldn’t make an offer. Request the standard respect given the most recent team of the opportunity to counter the final offer from other teams.
Not making an offer can come off as disrespectful.
Boras has done the opposite we with his recent free agents.
Not making an offer leaves Yankees at risk of not getting him.
Lord – That’s assuming all things equal, Soto wants to stay with the Yankees.
That was the case with Judge, but I don’t think it’s necessarily the case with Soto.
And as for negotiating tactics, a team stating “Final Offer” is never a good idea. It’s like an auction, let each bidder know the current high bid and leave it to them to drop out when it goes beyond their comfort level.
The belief is he wants top dollar, with that preferably coming from the Yankees. He’s mentioned he’s a bit tired of getting to know new organizations, teammates, coaches, etc. He genuinely loved being a Yankee, he’s already won over the fan base, he spoke glowingly of the clubhouse and teammates, just went to the World Series. He also wants the most money, which means he only leaves if Hal lets him leave.
To get the most money and from his preferred destination, Boras will go back to the Yankees to at least check in. That even happened when Cano left the Yankees. A different agent, but the Mariners had a huge offer, yet there was still a call back to the Yankees to see if they’d match. They said no because they only wanted Cano back at a specific, hard price. That’s not the case here. They want Soto. Boras knows that and he knows his client’s preference. That said, my belief all along is 55-45 Yankees or Mets with the Mets being the favorite simply because Cohen can make a ridiculous offer that can buy out Soto’s Yankee preference and high enough where Hal will let him go because he’s running a business.
I don’t believe any other team has a shot here. It’s one of the two NY teams. My view on the offer and waiting is you don’t want to be bidding against yourself at the very high end. That said, someone has to make the initial offer to set the wheels in motion.
Lord – Why would Boras promise either team last offer though?
Let’s say you’re right and only the NY teams remain with Mets having the top offer of $600M.
Boras asks the Yanks if they will beat it. Yanks say yes $625M.
Why wouldn’t Boras go back to Mets and ask them if they will go higher?
Sorry but everything Soto said sounds like a negotiating ploy. He doesn’t want to change teams again? Once he signs, he won’t have to change again for at least 12 years … but I wouldn’t be surprised if he gets opt outs. Lol
I’m not sure we’re that far off in what we’re saying. Mine is that he has a preference, and then the two sides sit down and hammer out the agreement. They’re not mutually exclusive. I’ll use Gerrit Cole as an example, another Boras client. He wanted to be a Yankee and to also get the most money. The two came together because at the end, the two sides sat down to make it happen. I would say normally that’s guaranteed to happen here except for the Cohen money that can change everything.
I’ll stick by my belief that this is a two-horse race by the two NY teams. Now, is Soto/Boras after the absolute last dollar? To that I’ll say no. They’ve admitted such. If The Mets offer $625 and the White Sox offered $650, they’ll take the Mets offer.
So who in the end is promised the last chance to match or beat the others BFO? If I were Hal, I would ask them both on a handshake to get one final chance. If Boras and Soto do not oblige, that will speak loudly on whether he wants to go back or not.
Yes. If I understand what you’re saying correctly, if they don’t agree to check back with the Yankees, then he doesn’t want to return.
Lord – Or he does, but without leaving any money on the table.
Shouldn’t have to? Thats crackerjack logic. Why exactly shouldn’t they?
What’s up with the site lately? I click on the bell notification, which shows 9+ notifications and it just takes me back to the top of the website.
@Old York: It’s working for me now York.
York – Notifications began working again sometime since yesterday, but it’s been many months since clicking on them took me to the post.
Have you muted anybody? You won’t see a Reply if you muted the person being replied to.
@Fever: Wonder why clicking on them hasn’t been taking you to the posts. I’ve never had that issue (until the site wide shutdown over the weekend.) Are you using the app on your phone? I’m on a laptop that I use as my desk top. I’ve never tried to access the site via my phone.
Jeff – It was working fine for me until they started grouping messages …. I think about a year ago? I’m almost always using a PC, no way I could type this much on my phone. LOL!
I’m guessing my browser may have something to do with it, but it blocks ads so I ain’t changing it. LOL
@Fever: Yeah, typing on a phone blows, lol. Not sure which browser you use, but I’m on Chrome. Also use Adblock Plus. Zero problem w/ads. Have you cleared your cache and cookies lately? Try that if you haven’t.
Jeff – I will give that a try, thank you!
@Fever Pitch Guy
No, I don’t mute users. I don’t even mute users like you who are more intelligent and witty to make fun of me… 😀
York – You have to admit, I’ve given you more thumbs up than Elaine on the dance floor! (Seinfeld reference)
@york
Site was def acting weird all wk
Since there is no one truly worthy of the award in the AL, they should let Skene and Merrill take both league ROY awards. That will not happen, of course, but both are worthy in the NL while no one jumps out from the AL class, though Cowser will win the award.
@rememberthecoop
Why can’t they have multiple ROY? It’s been shared twice before in MLB history.
Sure, they could. But not across leagues like I’m suggesting.
You’re suggesting an NL player be awarded the AL ROY? Or are you suggesting only a single MLB ROY?
Sure, they could tie for the award but I was (jokingly) suggesting to not do an SL award.
SL? AL. Can’t type this morning.
That’s because Abreu isn’t in the top three. He’s getting hosed big time.
couldn’t agree more. very solid offensive year, and his defense was very good, one might even say gold glove level defense
There should be a ROY pitcher award and ROY hitter award.
Well – I think they already have too many awards.
Basically everyone feels the AL doesn’t have any worthy ROY candidates at all, and you want there to be 2 AL ROY?
That is true but Skenes and Merrill are both really really good players yet only one will win that award. There should be 2 because pitcher and position players are different. I don’t really know, I just think there should be one for the pitcher and one for the hitter. Makes sense to me.
I do agree with you about the AL having no worthy candidates but still
Well – I get what you’re saying, but with every award you’re always gonna have situations where more than one deserves it.
So I guess you feel pitchers shouldn’t be eligible for MVP?
And you feel there should be two Comeback Players of the Year in each league?
Yeah, that’s true. I think there should be a pitcher MVP and hitter MVP but that would just make things more complicated and way more awards, like you said, so I guess you’re right.
Well – I kinda view the Cy Young as a Pitcher MVP award ;O)
True
Yankees will make their pitch and if they sense Boras or Soto really all about just money I expect them to pivot signing at least 1-2 free agents to fill their other needs and perhaps Soto feels a sense of urgency to react sooner rather later before the Yankees shut the door on him cause if Yankees drop out I expect his value to somewhat plummet knowing that the richest franchise is out of bidding. He will be PAID but removing Yankees will no doubt lower his contract demands
Anthony, of course with Boras and Soto, it will be all about the money.
He already has a 660 million dollar offer. It’s not going down because the Yankees can’t afford him. The Yankees aren’t even close to being the richest team.
I wonder if a team like the orioles , cubs or tigers might offer Soto a 6 year $300 million deal. Soto would be free agent at age 32 instead of being tied to a team for 10-15 years.
Other team will offer him a lot more long-term guaranteed money with opt-outs.
No chance Soto sells his six prime and closest post-prime years, by far the most valuable thing he has to sell, for a $50m AAV when most expectations are that he’ll get something close to 14 years at a 45m AAV.
He’s also just a two-tool hitter. A great one, but in the cases of Dick Allen, Miguel Cabrera, and peak Duke Snider, such players were done at ages 32, 33, and 30. Why would Soto sell himself at 6/300m when he may well be in significant decline by the time those six years are over?
He’ll get himself an opt out opportunity in probably year 3 or 4 of the 10+ year deal he’s going to sign.
Pour one out for Jackson Merrill tonight. If there’s any justice in the world, he gets the Skenes 1-1 Topps Chrome Update card.
I looked on Google News for stuff about Skenes and got a lot of pictures of him and his girlfriend at the Steelers game. Not to mention the girlfriend’s yellow lab. The dog and the girlfriend are both cute.
Color me shocked.
Wilyer Abreu is a better hitter, fielder, base runner, and get-out-of-the-way-er of up-and-in pitches. How is Colton Cowser the favorite, let alone a finalist over Abreu?
Fair question.
Jack – Agreed, I believe Abreu is getting penalized for Cora using him mostly against only RHP.
Been saying this since day one. Er after day 182.
Funny to hear conjecture that Cowser will walk away with the AL award… and his numbers don’t hold a candle to Merrill’s fire. Let’s go Jackson Barrel! While Skenes is worthy, give me the kid that played all year to win the hardware.
Punish Skenes, clearly more valuable and over a shorter period, because the Pirates brought him up later?
Interesting thesis, especially from a Padres fan…
Jack – Skenes is a lock to finish Top Two, which means he gets his full year of service time.
That’s deserved punishment for the Pirates ;o)
I’m not clear on the new rules… So is Skenes a super-two now or a free agent a year earlier? (Just need to mentally grasp when the Bucs will trade him)
bucs- Skenes only had 5 more years of control after being awarded a full service year for ROY. I would tentatively speculate that he’s traded in the ’27-’28 Offseason.
Gwynn – Put me down for Skenes signing an extension with the Pirates ….. they hafta keep SOMEBODY longterm, even the Rays gave a huge extension a couple years ago (of course we all know how THAT ended).
I’m marking my calendar for March 27, 2028. ….
Agreed, Jack doesn’t know what he’s talking about in terms of being valuable.
one team made the postseason, one didn’t….tell me which one was more valuable to their team.
lmao.
Skenes and Gil should win the ROY tonight! Last time that happened was in 81 Fernando an Gator!
slider – Gator finished 4th for ROY in 1987 ;O)
Toronto having a meeting with Soto with no extension for Vlad in place Seems like a giant waste of time. “Good afternoon Juan. Our franchise has no direction moving forward”
Skenes gets the full year of service time, and the Pirates don’t get the PPI Pick. The rule was made specifically to avoid this situation, and they still messed it up.
I hate this management team. I really, really hate them.
Yeah, that stinks. It seems like that rule is going to really hurt pitching prospects like Skenes where they need to worry more about load management making the transition for the first time, less likely to have ’em up from the start. Merrill really benefited from that extra time.
Skenes was pitching at the beginning of the season but it was in the minors. It may have legitimately been related to his continued development. But it doesn’t seem like that would have been with an eye toward load management.
So there’s no difference b/w pitching in the minors and MLB?
“C’mon Willie!”
It was load management and development. They probably wanted the extra year of control too but he had only thrown 6 minor league innings before this year.
He made 7 minor league starts and tossed 28 innings. He wouldn’’t have been making 4 inning ML starts.
The Twins should offer Soto majority ownership of the team to secure his services. Then they will be renamed the “Minnesoto’s”
That’s all I got, my shoulder hurts and I’m out of Ibuprofen.
I am confused why Mason Miller wasn’t a finalist for AL ROY. Several other outlets named him their AL ROY winner and he was clearly the most deserving American League rookie. I know he pitched in 2023, but he only pitched 33 innings.
Anything under 50 innings means you retain your rookie status according to MLB rules.
It wasn’t anything about eligibility, Wells was just valued more than Miller. Wells had a higher bWAR and fWAR than Miller, fwiw.
The fact that I still see people saying chourio is better than Merrill is just insane to me.
I guess you haven’t seen the 20 year old Chourio play. He will have the better career.
Well, you don’t know that do you?
Were also talking about RIGHT NOW not in the future, not in the past, were talking about right now, who’s the better player? and its easily Jackson Merrill.
and no, I don’t need to watch a player play, I have plenty of stats to tell me who’s better and who isn’t.
My dad is a padres fan and I’m a jays fan, so if were basing it off of that like you said, then Merrill is the better player since I watched him, and not chourio.
Of course none of us know that. Your opinion is mute. I think it’s insane to comment on players who you’ve never seen play. Merrill had vastly more protection in his lineup and often saw fastballs. Chourio was the second best player on a team that was predicted to finish bad. Don’t get me wrong. Both players are really good but I wouldn’t go s far to say Merrill is clearly better then Chourio.
@metsin4
ALSSSOOOOO
Merrill never played a game in the outfield before this season, crazy isn’t it?
He put up a 12 OAA!!! as a shortstop in the outfield!
Chourio? well…he’s a career outfielder…and…
a 5 OAA?…yeah its not even close…Merrill is so much better than chourio….
I could go on but…I wont!
Great every player on the Padres was a shortstop. I’m sorry, is there something wrong with being a career outfielder? 7 expected outs on the year really isn’t much. It really didn’t change much since Chourio lead a less talented team to a better record.There is a reason Chourio already has a long term contract and Merrill doesn’t.
Soto is a terrific player and be paid enormous amounts of money…since he can pick and choose, he’s going to prioritize playoff opportunities. Yankees are a bit unstable right now, Mets might be a good fit. Red Sox–if they really want to spend, would probably get them back to the post season. Toronto may be kicking times. Dodgers always in the chase for the best talent. I wouldn’t be surprised it the Yankees max out at some point. The Cole episode was interesting, maybe telling.
Why was Teo Hernandez left off this list of pending QO decisions? He hasn’t accepted or rejected his.
Seriously, it’s the most intriguing one of them all….
That’s tough, Skenes and Merrill were really good, I’d say give it to them both.
Looking over the previous ROY NL award winners and Merrill would have finished 2nd almost every year. He definitely would have beat out India and Williams. It would have been a toss up with Harris. Everyone else beats him in the last 10 plus years.
We get it, you’re just a hater. On that note, let us know which Barbies you get for Christmas!
Gwynning, nice comeback because you looked and realized I am right. Maybe I’ll order you a Ken doll in a Padre uniform crying.
$660 mil for soto
Lfg stevie
No enough.
In my opinion, Jordan Westburg deserves AL Roy over everyone else mentioned. He was consistent all year
That would be a good thought except he wasn’t a rookie.
@metsin4 I stand corrected. He passed the threshhold last year. Thought he had a shorter stint then what he actually had
Jackson Holliday will not be eligible for ROY, the Orioles should have sent him back down before he crossed the threshold..
Its funny all these awards are gonna be sold either by the player in old age or their kids at some auction 1 day
Its kinda sad & makes it meaningless who wins
Gonna end up in some rich ahole’s penthouse living room some day
I propose two surprises for this evening: (1) the AL award goes to someone not nominated, either Miller or Abreu, and (2) the NL award goes to two players: Skenes and Merrill.
They knew the winner when they announced the finalists. It will be one of the three.
How is Colton Cowser the favorite to win ROY over Gil and Wells? Lol this is the first article I’ve read that suggested that?
They are talking a lot of money for a guy who hasn’t pitched in 35 years. I know pitching is at a premium, but really…