Here are three things we’ll be keeping an eye on around the baseball world today:
1. MVP winners to be announced:
Award season is set to wrap up at 5pm CT this evening with the unveiling of MVP results in both leagues. There isn’t much suspense regarding the winner in either league, as the AL saw Yankees outfielder Aaron Judge establish himself as a heavy favorite with an eye-popping season that edged out his 2022 campaign (when he set a new AL record for home runs in a season) in both wRC+ (218) and fWAR (11.2). Royals shortstop Bobby Witt Jr. and top-of-the-class free agent Juan Soto had incredible seasons of their own to earn their spots as finalists, but Judge’s .322/.458/.701 slash, 58 home runs, 122 runs scored and 144 runs batted in will be nearly impossible to overcome.
Meanwhile, the NL field was regarded as crowded for most of the season, but Shohei Ohtani began to pull away from the pack late in the year as he became the first player in history to post a 50-50 season and ultimately finished with 54 homers and 59 stolen bases — all while hitting .310/.390/.646. Assuming Ohtani wins over fellow finalists Francisco Lindor and Ketel Marte (whose case was dinged by a late stint on the injured list), he’ll become the first full-time DH to win the award in MLB history.
2. Are more pre-tender deals on the horizon?
With the non-tender deadline looming tomorrow, the A’s and first baseman/outfielder Seth Brown got a head start on the type of deal that will surely be seen frequently all across baseball over the next day and a half by avoiding arbitration. “Pre-tender” deals like these often see the player sign at a figure lower than their expected value in arbitration in order to secure a roster spot, knowing the alternative is a non-tender into a crowded free agent pool. Brown, who was outrighted off the A’s roster in June but hit his way back to the majors, agreed to a one-year, $2.7MM deal that fell well shy of the $3.8MM salary projected in MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz’s algorithm. Several more deals along these lines could unfold between now and tomorrow afternoon’s deadline.
3. Which players are non-tender candidates this year?
Ahead of tomorrow’s non-tender deadline, MLBTR will be publishing a list of potential non-tender candidates later today. While it certainly won’t be the case that every player listed gets non-tendered (and it’s quite unlikely that even most of them will), the list features a broad group of plausible candidates who could be non-tendered given their projected arbitration price and a confluence of factors including their expected production, injury situation, and/or the financial situation of their team. Some players from the list could also look to sign a pre-tender deal with their team or even be traded in advance of the deadline. MLBTR’s Anthony Franco took a look at a selection of arb-eligible players who could be trade candidates in the run-up to tomorrow’s deadline in a post for Front Office subscribers yesterday.
Judge’s performance over the past 3 seasons has been pretty remarkable. If he wasn’t injured last year, he’d probably be looking at 3 consecutive MVP trophies.
Only Barry Bonds has won more than 2 in a row, he won 4 straight from 2001-2004.
Judge should have won in 2017.
Barroid the cheat.
The 2002-2004 Albert Pujols would like a re-count.
Sonetimes I wonder if he could have been putting together an even better career of he had started earlier, but maybe he wouldnt have been ready.
Either way, we are witnessing some awesome times with Judge and Ohtani.
Even if healthy i dont think he would’ve won in 2023. Awesome year, but ohtani was better in every facet when both were healthy.
I still cant believe he didnt win in 2017.
Ohtani should be the unanimous winner in both the NL and AL.
He will get 0 votes in the AL, per how leagues work.
@Shawn
you seem fun at party’s.
‘parties’
I don’t think you grasped what he was really saying.
Lmfao get off the drugs as Judge destroyed Ohtani in majority of categories playing a premium position to boot.
I get the feeling someone will vote for Lindor on the premise of “DH’s can’t be MVPs.”
Judge is already a top 5 outfielder of all time.
IMO ofc.
You can’t be serious
1. Willie Mays
2. Babe Ruth
3. ted Williams
4. Griffey jr
5. Aaron judge
The fact judge is facing pitchers consistently throwing 100+ and if you look at his career stats, the fact he’s done THAT MUCH in such little time is simply just elite. But this is obviously my opinion.
Fem, that makes him maybe a top 10 offensive player not a top 5 outstanding outfielder.
@jays
Like I said, this is my opinion.
he is a top 5 outfielder all time.
he consistently puts up bad defense numbers and still manages to put up an over 6.0 WAR a season with three seasons above 8. the only MLB player To do something like that was babe Ruth. Not to mention he’s done all this while being injured so much as well.
He’s not even better than Mike Trout (he’s also not even a full year younger than Trout too).
Trout has 5 seasons above 8 WAR. 9 Seasons above 6.
It’s very hard to compare given that both the ball and bat have changed. Interesting argument to compare Judge to Mantle and Joe D when his body of work is complete.
@RodBeck
Trout has also played 3 more seasons, and came into the league earlier.
Judge is also the active leader in OPS, and SLG….and judge also has a higher OPS+ than trout in his career.
not to mention in this past 5 seasons, trout has only put up a WAR of 2 or more, only 2 times.
judge also has three seasons of 50 plus homers…trout does not.
I would rather have judge on my team rather than trout.
Aaron judge is a better offensive mike trout with worse defense.
The fact judge put up a 0ver 10 WAR this season with a -6 OAA is just elite.
Mike Trout career WAR 86.2 vs Judge’s career WAR 52.2
You’re ranking their whole career as you put Judge up to 4 other guys who have completed their career. Again Judge is less than a year younger than Trout…the point being he isn’t going to pass Trout unless Trout just can’t play any more after this season.
Judge is building towards a HOF career, but he is only inner circle if he reaches something like 700 HR. He is a great OF, and easily on that path, but calling him MT Rushmore of OF now is just silly.
Lol. I appreciate this brand of crazy. So Aaron Judge is better than Hank Aaron? Smh. Truly wild takes this morning.
@james
Mt Rushmore only has 4 heads,
I put four outfielders above judge.
Judge is not in my mt Rushmore.
Trout likely stays ahead even if he retires tomorrow. You have to remember that for a “run of the mill” HOF OF you are looking at 55-65 WAR. So Judge is already bubble HOF if he blows out his knees tomorrow. Trout is 30 WAR past that. Judge is a great player, but getting older already- so thinking another 5 years for 5 WAR is a high mark for him to reach. He would still be several WAR away from Trout (but if he does that he likely has enough in the tank to limp another few 1-2 WAR seasons after).
Trout is all time great that is boarderline inner circle HOF already. Judge needs a lot more time, and he got called up sort of old, so he is never getting those years back
We do not look at what guys may have done before they got called up. Ryan Howad (who was not a big league regular until about 25) would have been a possible HOF if he had 4 years in his early 20ies putting up bombs- but that is not what happened
Aaron, Cobb??
I know Judge isn’t going to pass Trout in WAR, that was my point by highlighting there is essentially no age difference. There could be an outside chance if Trout doesn’t play anymore past this year that Judge does pass him in some counting stats.
Judge was called up late as the Yankees had a lot of outfielders at the time, and his numbers were good, but not great in the minors so he wasn’t exactly forcing their hand.
Judge can make the HoF with 500+ if he keeps winning MVP trophies along the way. Unless he averages 50+ HR’s per season for the next 6 seasons given his age 700 is probably not likely
Trout if he stayed healthy would have been the greatest player in mlb history!!!
Judge is getting older already? He’s coming off an MVP season. He’s not young but he’s at the absolute top of his game right now
His defense was pretty good in RF.
Trout will likely stay ahead but not if he never played another game. It’s quite reasonable for Judge to put up at least 25 WAR over the next 4 years and then compile the last bit.
No doubt that Trout is in the convo as the best if he had stayed healthy. It’s a damn shame… I feel like people are starting to forget how dominant he was.
500 seems likely. I think 700 is nearly impossible.
He will be in the mix as a first-ballot HOFer when he’s done imo.
“not to mention in this past 5 seasons”
I thought we were talking about all-time? That would imply you look at their entire career. In that case, Trout is clearly better. But sure, Judge is better RIGHT NOW. Judge is also better than Babe Ruth right now. For that matter, so is Alex Verdugo.
So we’re gonna pretend like Ty Cobb, Hank Aaron, Stan Musical, Mickey Mantle, and Frank Robinson (I could go on) don’t exist?
I’m assuming you started watching baseball in 2020?
I started watching in 2014.
Fem – Off the top of my head Judge is behind Bonds, Ruth, Williams, Mays, Cobb, Aaron, Speaker and Musial.
That’s fine, thats your opinion, and I respect it.
@Fever
I just think judge is a top outfielder all time, I would comp him to babe Ruth….but a dollar store version
Puts up bad defense numbers every year, but constantly puts up a high WAR due to such crazy offensive numbers.
Fem – I respect your opinion, it’s always fun to debate all-time lists.
The problem with Judge, he played in only 572 games prior to Age 30.
By comparison, Soto has played in 936 games already and he just turned 26!
Judge would have to play a minimum of 155 games annually for 7 years to possibly get into the Top 5 list.
Judge is obviously a stud but with so many LONG HRs now hit, I think the maple bat and ball that is made by MLB have distorted stats the same way PED usage did.
dewey – Don’t forget the higher the pitch velocity, the farther the ball can be hit.
All the hard throwing pitchers is definitely a factor.
I’d even add (Frank) Robinson, Clemente, Mantle and Kaline to the list ahead of Judge. All Judge does is hit home runs, he doesn’t play spectacular defense or run particularly well, so how does a one dimensional player wind up being top 5 (or even 10) all time?
@Motown
I’ve already explained in my other comments why I think he’s a top 5 outfielder.
That’s your opinion, yours is obviously different from mine.
I think judge is top 5, you don’t. There you go.
That’s fair, but you may want to read up on the history of baseball as there have been lots of players like Judge but not as good as those other mentioned. To take it one step further, Judge reminds me of a modern day Reggie Jackson who played in the 60’s, 70’s and 80’s. Jackson was a huge HR hitter and limited defender, like Judge but not all time great
@motown
I would agree, but Reggie is nowhere close to being as good offensively as judge.
Clemente wasn’t a power hitter but he led the league in batting average 4 times and won 12 Gold Gloves
I think the whole fall down is that you are only looking at peak, and have a massive recentcy bias.
Judge has had a monster peak- i will not deny that his peak may be top 10 all time…. but once you zoom out, you have a late bloomer who will likely break down before he can play enough to compete with the guys who were elite for 10-15 years. The chances of making the HOF were already slim for a player who barely played until he was 25. his 7 year span has been amazing, but at 32, i suspect he is going to start to lose a little. If he is the 2023 version of him for the next 5 years (so until 37) he is still about 12 WAR shy of where Trout is right now (and trout is only a year older).
Everyone breaks down in their early 30ies. Judge is going to break down just like everyone else. He does not have enough time left to reach the milestones to be an all time great. 500hr is not even a given for him (as power is his calling card). He only has 315. He would need 50 per year until he is 36 to reach 500. 500 is also not the benchmark it once was (there are 500 HR players not in the hall with no major blemish on their record). 600 has almost become the milestone for all time power hitters- and Judge getting there would be doing 50 per year until 36, and then 30 per year from 37-40. Is it possible, yes. It is likely – no. If he follows any normal aging curve, he is leaving his prime between 29-32, so with the lastest normal prime seasons- he is out of his prime seasons.
For judge- when the power goes- he is basically done.
@james
Just imagine if the Yankees called him up sooner, like trout…
around 20-21, and he had 3-4 extra seasons of these stats.
Fem – I agree, Judge’s OBP is quite a bit higher.
But this is another example where Judge needs to play a lot more games to be compared to all-time greats, Reggie has played in 3 times as many games as Judge.
Femboy I think you mean he’s the 5th best Yankees outfielder of all time. I love Judge but he’s definitely behind Ruth, Mantle and DiMaggio. So I guess he’s the fourth best though not as far ahead of Bernie Williams as one might think.
Joe – Little known fact, Bernie is one of my all-time favorite Yankees. Super nice guy that plays a mean guitar.
The only reason to watch is to see if Ohtani and Judge fein suspense and excitement or if they’re already celebrating during the pre-announcement interviews. Will the hosts be able to keep a straight face? The suspense is palpable.
avenger – The only reason I’ll watch is to see if Decoy wags his tail, I’ve got a wager riding on it.
Most likely going to be Judge but if you look at overall skill, I think it should be Bobby Witt Jr. He had great offensive numbers and was a plus-defender (something Judge is not). He also has speed, which is an important part of being a well rounded baseball player.
judge leads Bobby Witt Jr in the following:
WAR (he put up a 10.8 WAR despite having a -6 DRS, and Bobby has a 9.1, even with his defense and base running.)
HR’s
RBI’s (he was more valuable to his team this way)
OBP
SLG
OPS
OPS+
Judge is definitely MVP and its not even close IMO.
BTW, the website version is still all messed up. Not sure what the issue is. Maybe just my computer?
Old York, I am on the website version and do not/ have not had any issues
York – Have you tried the website version using something other than AOL Dial-Up?
Come on man, he’s using DSL now…
Where I’m from, only hot chicks with botox injections have DSLs…
@Fever Pitch Guy
Yeah, hard to get phone calls when I’m on the internet. But I can’t give up the old technology. New technology always breaks every other day. They don’t make things like they used to, just like they don’t play baseball like they used to!
York – In all seriousness, I am still using laptops that are older than some commenters here. Why not? Still works, and it has the disk drive for burning/ripping CD’s and DVD’s which I do often.
The more technology, the more that can go wrong …. like I stay away from touchscreen because there are often malfunctions with it.
Meanwhile in Toronto the Bad GM shapiro and his lackie atkins, have done nothing …!!
The 2 Cleveland Clowns have got to go !
To be fair, other than Minasian and the Angels pretty much no team has done much of anything yet
I love possible non tenders- there are always diamonds in the rough. Rule 5 has more upside but the timeline is just silly long for most of those guys to reach their ceiling…. but trading for a non tender guy who has a few tweaks and is great is always fun to see.
I wonder if you looked historically at the two, which has produced better results. Of the last decade, Anthony Santander & Garrett Whitlock are the best rule 5 picks, arguably. I feel like your hit rate on non tender guys has gotta be higher because you’re getting a lot more proven players who are either coming off down years or are former top prospects who haven’t hit their potential.
I think Lindor will do better than people expect even if he doesn’t win it. Ohtani is a DH and stealing 50 bases is nice but it’s 20 more than Lindor and doesn’t lead to much if any additional run creation. Lindor plays a great SS and is the leader of the team and without him they go nowhere. Without Ohtani the Dodgers are still a playoff team, he doesn’t play in the field and Mookie is the leader of that team. If we’re talking most valuable offensive player it’s Ohtani but overall I think it’s Lindor.
Judge is a fascinating player to watch. When he’s right, he’s nearly at Bonds level. When he’s out of sync, he’s totally lost. The aggregate product is exceptional. But I’d love to see an article that identifies players like him–high ceiling streakiness, awful downtimes.