Here are three things we’ll be keeping an eye on around the baseball world this weekend:
1. Deals to avoid arbitration:
The non-tender deadline is one week from today, and last night saw the first player of the winter look to avoid the arbitration process entirely and sign with his club early. In this case, the Angels avoided arbitration with recently-acquired utilityman Scott Kingery, though the financial details of that deal are not yet known. The days leading up to the non-tender deadline are typically rife with similar deals signed by players on the non-tender bubble, often referred to as pre-tender deals. Mets DH DJ Stewart and Rockies southpaw Jalen Beeks were among the players who signed such agreements a year ago. Pre-tender deals often fall shy of expectations/projections, as the alternative to accepting that lower salary is typically a non-tender.
2. 40-man roster moves looming:
Even sooner than the non-tender deadline is the deadline for teams to protect prospects from the Rule 5 Draft, which is scheduled for this coming Tuesday at 5pm CT. While many teams have a handful of 40-man roster spots available for prospects that need protection, that’s not true for every club, and even some clubs with roster space available will have more prospects to protect than openings. Most clubs will wait until the final hours leading into the deadline to announce these moves, but some could get a jump on clearing roster space this weekend.
The Red Sox stand out as one particularly interesting example of a club in need of roster space. Not only do they have a full 40-man roster, but they also have a player in need of protection who isn’t a typical prospect: right-hander Michael Fulmer, who signed with the club on a two-year minor league deal last winter while rehabbing Tommy John surgery. If not added onto the club’s 40-man roster by Tuesday, Fulmer will be a rare established big leaguer available in the Rule 5 draft and for that reason would stand a strong chance of getting selected away from Boston during the Winter Meetings next month.
3. The Hernandez market:
Juan Soto has understandably dominated headlines for major free agent hitters this offseason, particularly with him taking individual meetings with interested teams over the course of the past week. Many top-tier free agents will want to wait for Soto’s decision before signing, as the teams that miss on Soto will be motivated to pursue alternatives more aggressively. One possible exception? Teoscar Hernandez, who just won his third career Silver Slugger Award. ESPN’s Jeff Passan suggested earlier this week that Hernandez may not wait for Soto to sign and could be one of the first big-name free agents off the board this winter.
Hernandez sat on the market for more than two months last offseason awaiting a three-year offer that never materialized. He eventually signed a one-year deal with the Dodgers in January. Given that lengthy stay on last year’s market, it’s understandable that he’d prefer a quicker turnaround this winter. The Dodgers, Orioles and Red Sox have all been connected to Hernandez thus far. He slashed .272/.339/.501 with a career-high 33 homers and tied a career-high 12 steals with L.A. in the regular season, then went on to hit .250/.352/.417 with three home runs during the Dodgers’ postseason run to a 2024 World Series crown.
Hernandez is putting pressure on the teams most likely to offer Soto a deal. Miss out on Soto, there isn’t likely to be Hernandez waiting for them.
agree with this, just see him taking a couple years high AAV to stay with the dodgers.
someone is welcome to pay him like a star and hang their offseason (and following season or two) on him, i think they’ll be hugely disappointed. and i’m not sure teoscar even wants that. i have no inside information, maybe he does want the pressure of the big contract offensive guy, but i think he was happy in LA, they won’t care if he strikes out 210 times because he’s like their 5th offensive option, a different fan base may jump down his throat for a low production high K month. i’d be surprised to see him leave.
To echo that idea, I think Teoscar had a hard time in Seattle dealing with the lofty expectations of being the team’s primary slugger. In LA, he’s one among many.
Hernandez didn’t struggle dealing with the expectations in Seattle, he struggled with their absolutely atrocious batters eye.
Drasco – Yep, the most pitcher-friendly park in MLB.
i agree, and that’s the fear, getting the pressing SEA Teoscar that was meh and (i don’t know) probably drew ire that year. i know stats are park adjusted, and he excelled in LA, but he really excelled in cozy TOR. Like i said, i’d take him, but i don’t want to pay him what he can likely command, i’d always be wondering about that.
factors to consider when designing a ballpark: 1. can the hitters see, any time of day, with a nice backdrop. 2: can the position players see, plan mostly for night games, use common sense. 3: best case youre in the playoffs with god awful start times. be aware of them and the shadows. they’re the most important games of the year, why we play them at different times than we played the other 162 is beyond me…but you can plan it out
I think it was the hitting environment of Seattle that was the problem for him and so many others.
He’s literally on record saying it’s the worst batters eye he’s ever seen
Take a minute on that he’s Dominican. He’s seen batters eyes made of painted plywood and used tires and he’s saying Seattle is the worst.
avenger – I am quite confident Teo stays with the Dodgers. He’s a great fit there, he really enjoys it there, and winning is a priority for him.
As for the Red Sox having a 40-man crunch, I’m not surprised. They’ve taken more flyers than the NHL team in Philly. And now they will probably push hard for a bad trade just to free up space. Idiocy.
Fever, Hernandez to me possibly signing early will set the Sox winter. If Henry is going to spend, make Hernandez an offer that the Dodgers will not match. While money doesn’t seem to matter to them, the excess they will owe adds up quickly. As for the 40 man, it’s why I was surprised they signed Wilson when they did. I’m guessing Breslow has trades already pending.
dewey – Are you saying the Sox aren’t really interested in Soto? Because if the Sox sign Teo early, Soto would be out of the question …. unless you expect them to trade BOTH Duran and Abreu?
Not that I expect the Sox to sign Soto, obviously.
As for Wilson, I would hope Breslow has trades that are done deals …. otherwise he’s given other teams leverage in trade negotiations.
Fever, I said it previously, they met with Soto as a favor to Boras as having them in the bidding only increases the cost to the NY clubs. in return other Boras clients could end up in Boston assuming the money is on par with other clubs. Soto is young but a DH. How he was a finalist for a gold glove is mind boggling. If he does somehow find his way to Fenway (me wrong? lol), it means two of Duran, Abreu and Yoshida are traded. I’m in the minority but I still love Yoshida’s bat. That said this team HAS to build on defense and pitching. I’ve said it so many times…
Soto was a GG finalist probably because he led the league in fielding pct at his position this year. That number has no value to me, but maybe to some old-timers…
More likely theyd trade Abreu and Yoshida. Soto and Hernandez can split LF and DH. They could even move Rafaela back to the infield (everyday at 2nd or even at 3rd if the want Devers to DH) and have Teo in RF Soto in LF and Duran every day in CF.
dewey – Absolutely no chance the Red Sox or any other team will give more than half a billion to a 26-year-old so he can be moved to DH …. a player who just got nominated for a GG.
Especially the Red Sox, who will likely need to move Casas or Devers to DH a few years down the road
Yoshida has absolutely nothing to do with Teo or Soto.
As for how Soto became a finalist, he was statistically the third best RF in the league. .
Cal – He was 3rd in DRS.
fangraphs.com/leaders/major-league?lg=al&qual…
Fever, any team wins because of Soto’s bat but they could equally lose because of his glove or base running. stats sometimes are misleading. You don’t want Soto in the OF long term.
Soto was dead last among RFers in UZR, a much more developed stat. He was in the bottom 38th percentile by fielding run value, according to statcast.
Soto’s range by OAA was in the bottom 14th percentile.
He’s slow, a bad baserunner, a poor fielder, a weak albeit accurate arm. The complete package of the typical two-tool player.
You probably don’t want Soto himself long term. His closest comps are Dick Allen and Miguel Cabrera, maybe Duke Snider as well, going by Snider’s peak four seasons. Those three were done at 32, 33, and 30, respectively.
Would be crazy if the Yankees jumped in right now and signed Teoscar Hernandez.
Other than Crochet and Robert, anyone care to name the 38 players the White Sox will protect? Does it even matter?
@avenger the White Sox have a couple ok players but the team is in a miserable position. It will easily be another 100 loss season. If Willie V can get them even to 65 wins he needs to be named manager of the decade. A total ground up rebuild is needed.
Texas – 10D put up an .830 OPS in the second half of this year, I wouldn’t write him off just yet.
Texas: Without Crochet and if Robert has another down year, I find no reason to watch them play. However, since Reinsdorf and Blackhawks owner got together to form a new station broadcasting those teams plus the Bulls that no one other DirectTV owners or those who spent $40 on an antenna that rarely works, watching the Sox won’t be an issue. Oh, and if you cough up $19.95/month, you actually can get to see one of the teams mentioned above, $29.95 for all three. No thanks.
@ Texas outlaw
A total ground up rebuild is already in progress. Anything healthy that was worth anything got traded. The few remaining players who have had success in the past will have to rebound, then they will be gone as well. Only Crochet has current value. This team is 6′ under, and has to reach ground level as a first step.
The only people the Sox won’t trade are their prospects like Montgomery or their young pitchers
Crochet is going to get moved this winter Robert is probably 50/50 either this winter or at the trade deadline when he has a better season
Sox should have traded Vaughn and Robert two seasons ago, Robert had a very team friendly deal in place and was coming off a gold glove season, could have signed Bader that season, and would have gotten a nice return for Robert. Vaughn’s stock was high at the time too, and Sheets could have been a good fit at first base, a 6’5 lefty over at first as opposed to Vaughn he looks like he barely clips 5’10, I don’t know what the hell the Sox are doing, liked the Cease trade though, got a couple decent prospects. Have to trade Crochet, think goodness Moncada is off the books. Be interesting to see if Sox keep Montgomery at SS or move him over to 3rd. Benintendi can stick around.
Teo will be a Dodger, bank it, he’s not going anywhere!
@Terry B
That’s where I predicted he would sign with.
York – Me too! Great minds ….
It’s going to be a test of his stated desire to remain with the Dodgers. I’m not a big believer in hometown discounts, but likely he will get a few similar offers, with the main difference between them being where he wants to play. The Dodgers also have the edge of the QO.
I’m not a big believer in hometown discounts,
=======================
If I were Teo or Soto, I’d give the LAD and NYY a small discount. There is a lot more to life than just more money.
In the past we’ve seen that when players get multiple offers, most of them are in the same neighborhood with each other. One team might offer an option year, an opt-out, or some other teaser with value, but typically the AAV between them is not wildly different, and the decision comes down mostly to where the player wants to be. The Dodgers have a discount more or less built in, due to the QO.
Signing a 32 year old coming off a career year? The Dodgers may not even be close to his highest offer but for the QO, which knocks his value down to any other team by $6-10m, depending on where the pick falls.
Still, he projects to roughly 2.3 then 1.7 fWAR over the the next two years. Someone desperate for OF punch will probably offer him three years, hoping they can tuck him in to the DH slot sooner rather than later given his abysmal OF defense in 2024, and it’s not likely to be LA.
We shouldn’t be particularly surprised if LA doesn’t make him an offer beyond the QO.
Sorry, he’s headed to clam city!
Teoscar would look good in a Reds jersey. Hit behind Elly to discourage pitch arounds. Would easily have 100 ribbies with Friedl, McLain, India and Elly batting in front of him. Reds can definitely afford him. Up and coming team with an established manager.
But from Teo’s point of view, why would he sign there? He’ll have good offers from teams who are legit playoff teams. Going to a mid-market team who hopes to be in the playoffs is probably very low on his list.
They would likely have to overpay considerably to get his attention and an overpay like that never works out for lower and mid range franchises. They can’t take a hit like that if it goes bad.
Santander would be a better target. Couple years younger, similar profile. Might be more attainable.
Teoscar would be a nice RH power bat to replace O’Neill in Boston but will come at a higher price tag. I see him staying in LA, especially if the Dodgers are bent on keeping Mookie in the Infield
Why wouldn’t the Red Sox just bring ONeill back?
I didn’t say they wouldn’t. However Teoscar doesn’t have the durability issues O’Neill has, so that coupled with whatever O’Neill is asking for could be your answer
Why didn’t the Red Sox wait to sign Wilson with the known 40 man roster crunch. I think Wilson still would have accepted the offer next week.
I am reading all the comments here and it seems that no one is really thinking that Teoscar could wind up in Baltimore. He would be an idea replacement for Santander if he moves on. I could see Elias and company having a great interest in him. He would be a great addition to the roster and the clubhouse.
If you had that type of money to spend, why wouldn’t you just keep Santander?
I think Teoscar signs with the SFG on an overpay. I think Posey wants to do what he can to show the fan base he is going to do something for that team right out of the gates. It still keeps Teoscar in CA as well which he enjoys. Brings him back to play with Chapman.
Overpays are a funny concept, if only because in general players go to the teams that are willing to pay them the most.
I think the idea of an overpay is relative to the market. If a bunch of outfielders with similar profiles are getting $100m each and then a similar guy gets $175m for the same term, that would be seen as an overpay. The team spent more then others did for the same production/term.
How much a player gets paid is the market, by definition. Essentially, this is an auction. The person in the room who is willing to bid the most gets the item. Pretending to know what the items is “actually” worth is a misconception, because the market just told you what it is worth, and no better way of valuing that item exists.
Almost every FA is an overpay. They usually sign for the most dollars. That means 29 other teams refused to pay that much. Hence, Overpay!
I hope you are joking.
Teo to Boston or back to the Dodgers. Nice RH bat to put between Devers and Casas.
Good bat, but where would he play?
LF… he replaces O’Neill. If Story is healthy, he plays SS. Rafaela to 2B, Duran in CF, Abreu stays in RF.
1. Duran CF
2. Story SS
3. Devers 3B
4. Hernandez LF
5. Casas 1B
6. Yoshida DH
7. Abreu RF
8. Wong C
9. Rafaela 2B
Lefty-heavy, but the best pitchers in the division are right handed for the most part.
Red Sox and John Henry low-balled Teoscar so badly last off season that Hernandez even went public with the fact he was offended.
Business is business, and if they blow him away with an offer he’ll sign, but odds are he isnt coming to Boston.
Sad – Great post!
And not only did Teo talk about the lowball offer, he also made it clear he knew the Sox weren’t interested in winning.
I had Teo staying in LA, but if he’s being aggressive in not wanting to wait that might hurt that reunion. LA isn’t doing anything major, hitting wise, until Soto is spoken for.
So far as we know, the Dodgers haven’t even met with Soto. Seems more likely Hernandez is waiting out the Soto market as it sets a benchmark for his value.
7 of the top 12 predicted free agents are Boras clients including the top 4. I got a feeling this offseason is going to drag on like last years.
It might be like last year, but you have to wonder after last year if some of his clients might push for earlier signings. At the end of the day, the player makes the call, not the agent.
Canuckleball: If you listen to Jordan Montgomery, the agent ( Mr. Boras ) had a lot to do with him not signing early nor with the team he would have liked to sign with.
Let’s be real here.Scotty Boras’s commission is based on the dollars the player gets. He has made many mistakes in advice that have cost various players money and years. It is because he holds the player out until the last possible minute. And usually doesn’t re-sign with the team his player was with before.
That is his Modus Operandi, and he has burned some players. But he does get them money, and gets large commissions.
Just follow ALL the money. .
PS- and I submitted my predictions for free agent signings and I wrote “Mystery Team” for each one of Boras’s free agents.
I figured if I don’t get it right, at least my predicted “team” is in the running right up until pitchers and catchers report, or even after.
Just like Montgomery and JD Martinez and Blake Snell last year. Boy, I was so close to getting them right (lol).
let the signing start!
I have Teoscar staying with the Dodgers in the free agent contest.
i think breslow might take a real swing. teoscar is perfect for a young team on the cusp and i assume his batted ball profile is a great match for fenway. not the best defender but no one could be worse than yoshida
But again, who does he replace. We currently have three good OFs in Duran, Rafaela, and Abreu, Anthony will likely be up sometime in 2025, and Campbell might wind up in the OF.
Boras (and his group) will get the headlines, but I wonder if this isn’t a good time for non-Boras FA and their agents to be opportunistic. Good deal in $ and length, take it instead of looking for more, preferably before the Boras starts to take up all the air.
I dont know bout ya’ll
I only care where soto & roki ends up
Everything else means nothing
If my RS sign Snell & Bieber, I’ll be pretty happy. I’d like Roki, but that’s not the end of the trail.
snell’s jekyl & hyde
and bieber’s talent has gone way downhill since his cy young
buyer beware
Bieber’s FIP since the CY is 3.12. IMO, it is more a question of how well he recovers from his injury. But that’s also he won’t be getting Snell money.
Stupid Mariners. Why doesn’t Teo just sign with the Dodgers again? He does well there and will keep winning rings. Plus, they need all the outfield help they can get.
Why do people think Teoscar, a 32 year old whose last three seasons have been worth 2.9, 1.9, and 3.5 fWAR is such a prize? He has the QO attached, and with the age-related decline penalty projects for around 2.3 fWAR, then 1.7 in 2026. On the FA market that’s in the neighborhood of 2/36m, or 2/30m for 29 teams given the pick penalty. He’s fine on a short deal if you need punch, but he’s nothing special and has real drawbacks.
His defense also fell off a cliff last year. –11 OAA put him in the lowest 2% in MLB, meaning teams with the DH slot occupied probably can’t use him. Signing him to three years when you may well regret the second year isn’t good baseball.