Last week, MLBTR's Steve Adams ran through every team's chances of landing Juan Soto in a post for Front Office subscribers. In the wake of last night's Blake Snell deal, let's continue that exercise by examining where each club stands on the market's top pitcher.
With Snell off the board on a deferred $182MM deal, Corbin Burnes is the only remaining pitcher who might break the $200MM threshold. He just turned 30 and should be in line for seven or potentially eight years. Burnes hasn't been quite as dominant over the past two seasons as he was during the 2020-22 stretch. His strikeouts have trended down in consecutive years, settling at a slightly above-average 23.1% rate this past season. Burnes managed a 2.92 earned run average despite the drop in whiffs. He has an excellent durability record and has reached 32 starts in three straight seasons.
Burnes should at least easily beat the seven years and $172MM which Aaron Nola secured last winter. We predicted him for an even $200MM over seven seasons when we ranked him the top non-Soto free agent on our Top 50. Which teams are best positioned to make that kind of offer?
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Happy Thanksgiving Everyone!
NO U
Happy Thanksgiving to you as well
The best fit for Burnes is Baltimore obviously 😉
The Orioles don’t spend to get the top free agents. That’s why they traded for him last year instead of just signing someone.
Still pushing that outdated narrative despite all of the evidence to the contrary, I see.
What evidence to the contrary? They haven’t signed anyone to a big free agent deal since……well I don’t really know when……
Quit saying stuff that isn’t true. If the Orioles become big spenders this offseason for the first time since I can remember great. But it definitely hasn’t happened.
I have explained what has changed to you like 5 times now, I’m not going to type it all out again just for you to ignore it all again so you can continue pushing your tired narrative about things that clearly no longer apply.
Since Chris Davis?
Like I said when the Orioles become a big spending team who outbids others for top free agents then the narrative will change. But not until then.
That’s the last one I can remember. Alex Cobb i think got decent money but nowhere close to what top free agents are getting these days.
This is a no-brainer … the best fitts can be found with just one team, Richard with the Red Sox!!
Just paid for a year subscription to support. I assume it’s mostly between the O’s and Red Sox at this point although my dark horse from Day 1 was the Giants. I think he wants to be out west with ST’s in Arizona, not to mention he seems like a logical fit for Giants and someone Posey would target. Expect an opt out if he signs with an east coast team.
Can you please advise as to how much a 1 year subscription is?
Less than $30 a year or you can go with $3 a month.
Thnx
mlbtraderumors.com/membership
Gotta say Mets for Burnes. They need an ace and have the money and will to outbid everyone else for what should be the biggest pitching contract this offseason, at least annually.
They will have to offer more than anyone else IMO which may not be the case if they get Soto. Just speculation after following him fairly closely, but I don’t think he wants to be in NY
The Mets will have to outbid the Yankees for Soto.
I am pretty sure outbidding other teams isn’t a problem for the Mets. They have done it for 2 offseasons now.
I think Burnes’agent is Boras and that means he’s chasing the money.
We’ll see. That’s why I said “may”. Could be hard to stomach offering much more than other teams for a pitcher that doesn’t seem to want to be in NY in the first place and just signing Soto for $45m+ AAV
You have no evidence whatsoever Burnes doesn’t want to play in New York. And I believe the Yankees will sign Soto.
We will see.
Paywall
With LA and SD seemingly the teams to beat in the NL West, and with AZ recent WS trip, I think the Giants might overpay to get Burnes to pitch his home games at Oracle Park.
I agree it makes a lot of sense. The only reason I consider them a dark horse is because the Giants said they weren’t going after any big names. But why would they not after dropping $150m on Chap?
The Dodgers are obviously the best fit.
$8 per inning pitched and $40m per year to his first born redheaded grandchild who can answer three riddles.
What is the air speed of an unladen swallow?
Domínguez. Judge and Soto outfield, Arenado 1rst and Bergman 3er is the only way to be the Dodgers…the sure champions again
Burnes has been healthy starter so that rules out a dodgers or Mets signing. I could see giants or padres signing to compete with the dodgers or even the Yankees.