Last week, MLBTR's Steve Adams ran through every team's chances of landing Juan Soto in a post for Front Office subscribers. In the wake of last night's Blake Snell deal, let's continue that exercise by examining where each club stands on the market's top pitcher.
With Snell off the board on a deferred $182MM deal, Corbin Burnes is the only remaining pitcher who might break the $200MM threshold. He just turned 30 and should be in line for seven or potentially eight years. Burnes hasn't been quite as dominant over the past two seasons as he was during the 2020-22 stretch. His strikeouts have trended down in consecutive years, settling at a slightly above-average 23.1% rate this past season. Burnes managed a 2.92 earned run average despite the drop in whiffs. He has an excellent durability record and has reached 32 starts in three straight seasons.
Burnes should at least easily beat the seven years and $172MM which Aaron Nola secured last winter. We predicted him for an even $200MM over seven seasons when we ranked him the top non-Soto free agent on our Top 50. Which teams are best positioned to make that kind of offer?
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Happy Thanksgiving Everyone!
NO U
Happy Thanksgiving to you as well
No me only me!
The best fit for Burnes is Baltimore obviously 😉
The Orioles don’t spend to get the top free agents. That’s why they traded for him last year instead of just signing someone.
Still pushing that outdated narrative despite all of the evidence to the contrary, I see.
What evidence to the contrary? They haven’t signed anyone to a big free agent deal since……well I don’t really know when……
Quit saying stuff that isn’t true. If the Orioles become big spenders this offseason for the first time since I can remember great. But it definitely hasn’t happened.
I have explained what has changed to you like 5 times now, I’m not going to type it all out again just for you to ignore it all again so you can continue pushing your tired narrative about things that clearly no longer apply.
Since Chris Davis?
Like I said when the Orioles become a big spending team who outbids others for top free agents then the narrative will change. But not until then.
That’s the last one I can remember. Alex Cobb i think got decent money but nowhere close to what top free agents are getting these days.
Recency bias and your lack of intimate familiarity with the franchise are affecting your ability to see things clearly here.
Or you just love your narrative and really don’t want to give it up.
Either way, I’m not going through all of this with you again, much in the same way I don’t feel like explaining in detail why Mayo and Basallo clearly aren’t blocked in Baltimore for the 5th or 6th time.
Dude when the Orioles start spending fine. But they haven’t done that. All that has happened is an old rich owner admitted he’s not going to live forever. As if it took him his entire life to realize he can’t take his money with him to the grave. And guess what? I bet he still tries lol.
Winning contending teams trade prospects. That’s what they do. They don’t hoarding them and let them learn on tue job while it costs them games they trade them. You don’t get it because the Orioles aren’t a winn9ng team but thats what contenders do.
The Orioles have traded a ton of good prospects over the last 2 years, but you don’t know what you are talking about when it comes to other Orioles-related matters, so you getting this wrong too shouldn’t come as much of a surprise.
They gave up a bunch of nobodies to get Flaherty at the 2023 deadline.
They gave up some meh prospects to get a nobody in Trevor Rogers.
They traded Ortiz for Burnes, probably because they didn’t want to pay for a top free agent last year.
And now suddenly you think they are going to become big spenders????
Ortiz, Hall, and Norby were all top 100 prospects. Stowers was a top 10 prospect in the most stacked farm system in baseball. Jackson Baumeister, Seth Johnson, and Moises Chace were three of the best pitching prospects in the Orioles system. Mac Horvath is another intriguing player and it doesn’t surprise me that Tampa Bay wanted him.
Just because you are unfamiliar with the Orioles system doesn’t mean they aren’t good prospects.
If Hall and Norby were top 100 prospects it was just barely and for a very short amount of time.
Stowers isn’t good. He was once considered a good prospect but he failed at the big league level he’s not good.
Those pitchers you named are all barely prospects.
You are stretching the truth or simply making things up.
Keep hoarding those prospects.
See, this is exactly why I’m not interested in explaining things to you anymore.
Your whole “I am going to ignore/disregard everything you said so I can keep pushing my narrative” routine is incredibly tiresome.
The FACT is Balitmore hasn’t signed any big free agents in years. That’s a fact you want to ignore because the owner said things that MIGHT lead to them spending. But that hasn’t happened yet. If and when it does fine but it hasn’t happened yet.
They have new ownership, a solid core of position players and a meh rotation. Re-signing Burnes makes total sense.
Burnes makes plenty of sense. But he’s the best pitcher available on the free agent market and Baltimore will have to outbid all the big spenders to get him. And I don’t think thats going to happen.
But I didn’t ignore it (previously).
I explained, in great detail, why we haven’t spent lately, how we have spent historically (both more recently and in decades past), how spending has differed between primary operators of the organization (specifically Peter Angelos and his son John), and what type of spending can reasonably be expected going forward, but you chose to ignore all of that information and spam “tHe OrIoLeS nEvEr SpEnD” ad nauseum and now I have a very hard time taking you seriously.
Dude the Orioles aren’t signing Burnes. If they were willing to pay a guy like Burnes they would have done it last year instead of trading for him when he wasn’t making tons of money.
Just wait and see.
Orioles signed Frabklin Barreto. That’s exciting right?
Oh my God! A minor league depth signing like every single team makes a bunch of every single offseason? Dave lied to us! He’s no different than John Angelos!
(lol, lmao)
Winning contending teams trade prospects? Omg what a foolish remark. Probably the most foolish remark ever written. CONTENDING TEAMS TRADE PROSPECTS!!! WINNING TEAMS. Bwaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaa gulp bwaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaa
They have new ownership. What past owners have done is absolutely irrelevant. The new group had noting to do with the past ownership or their decisions.
And FYI those players were Top 100 prospects. Saying “meh” doesn’t change that….
I’d love to see Rubenstein open his wallet for Burnes, but I can’t see the Orioles under any owner going from zero to one hundred in regard to spending. I’m praying to God that the penny-pinching days are over, but I just don’t see any dazzling contracts this winter.
It would definitely be nice to have Burnes back next year but I’m not going to start caterwauling about the owner being an evil cheapskate if he ends up signing elsewhere because I understand that there are a multitude of factors at work in any given free agent’s signing process.
As long as Mike and Dave follow through on their declared intent to add a frontline starter of some sort to the rotation (and there is presently no good reason to think that they won’t), I’ll be pretty satisfied.
What if they trade for Crochet? You gonna be mad? I think you will…….
If the return for Chicago is reasonable, I’ll be perfectly happy with Crochet, but I don’t see Getz settling for “reasonable” and we’re probably just going to sign a free agent anyway since payroll is going up, so it’s all just pie in the sky anyway.
This is a no-brainer … the best fitts can be found with just one team, Richard with the Red Sox!!
My Richard doesn’t fitts in there anymore can someone make my Richard fits better
Just paid for a year subscription to support. I assume it’s mostly between the O’s and Red Sox at this point although my dark horse from Day 1 was the Giants. I think he wants to be out west with ST’s in Arizona, not to mention he seems like a logical fit for Giants and someone Posey would target. Expect an opt out if he signs with an east coast team.
Can you please advise as to how much a 1 year subscription is?
Less than $30 a year or you can go with $3 a month.
Thnx
mlbtraderumors.com/membership
Gotta say Mets for Burnes. They need an ace and have the money and will to outbid everyone else for what should be the biggest pitching contract this offseason, at least annually.
They will have to offer more than anyone else IMO which may not be the case if they get Soto. Just speculation after following him fairly closely, but I don’t think he wants to be in NY
The Mets will have to outbid the Yankees for Soto.
I am pretty sure outbidding other teams isn’t a problem for the Mets. They have done it for 2 offseasons now.
I think Burnes’agent is Boras and that means he’s chasing the money.
We’ll see. That’s why I said “may”. Could be hard to stomach offering much more than other teams for a pitcher that doesn’t seem to want to be in NY in the first place and just signing Soto for $45m+ AAV
You have no evidence whatsoever Burnes doesn’t want to play in New York. And I believe the Yankees will sign Soto.
We will see.
He really likes the outdoors, fishing, and generally a less congested place to raise his family. I mean that’s not zero evidence. I’ve been a fan of him for years and then listened to every interview of his the past 2 years since the arbitration fiasco
Paywall
what gave it away?
The wall that told me to pay
With LA and SD seemingly the teams to beat in the NL West, and with AZ recent WS trip, I think the Giants might overpay to get Burnes to pitch his home games at Oracle Park.
I agree it makes a lot of sense. The only reason I consider them a dark horse is because the Giants said they weren’t going after any big names. But why would they not after dropping $150m on Chap?
The Dodgers are obviously the best fit.
$8 per inning pitched and $40m per year to his first born redheaded grandchild who can answer three riddles.
What is the air speed of an unladen swallow?
Domínguez. Judge and Soto outfield, Arenado 1rst and Bergman 3er is the only way to be the Dodgers…the sure champions again
Burnes has been healthy starter so that rules out a dodgers or Mets signing. I could see giants or padres signing to compete with the dodgers or even the Yankees.
Thank you for your aggressive ignorance.
not only hasn’t the Bucs signed a player for $100 million; their payroll for next year won’t be $100 million
Reynolds 8 years/$106.75 million
Burnes declining strikeout rate should concern interested teams which is why I’m happy that LA went with Snell.
Happy Thanksgiving to all of you and especially to Corbin Burnes. Snell’s deal just gave him a huge raise. He just got $50 million more than anyone expected. 7/252?
@Pads Fans I disagree, Burnes’s periphials have been decreasing since his CY Young season. Snell has shown better consistentcy these past 3 years then Burnes. I do still think Burnes is a better pitcher. I’m thinking hes going to go for around 6 years 200 million which evens out to about 34 million a year which is more than fair
Yeah, no. Burnes has been one of the most consistent and most durable starters in baseball. All the articles about it say that Burnes just got a huge pay raise thanks to the Dodgers signing of Snell. He will get the same $36 million AAV and probably without the deferrals. This site said 7 years. Some have said 8.
The typical pump from you.
Snell’s PV value in the $160-165MM range is exactly in line with predictions.
Giants are the logical choice they have to respond they can’t fall to 4th place again
I had Burnes going to the Mets. Given that I’m already 2 for 3 in my predictions, there’s a 67% chance he signs with the Mets.