Left-hander Sean Manaea will reject the $21.05MM qualifying offer that was extended to him by the Mets, per Alden González of ESPN (X link). The southpaw was one of 13 players who received a qualifying offer this year, with the deadline for decisions tomorrow at 3pm Central.
As noted by González, the news doesn’t come as a surprise, as Manaea never really seemed like a candidate to accept the offer. He has a lengthy track record of major league success, with an earned run average of 4.00 in almost 1200 innings, and is coming off one of his best seasons.
Manaea signed with the Mets last offseason, a two-year deal with a $28MM guarantee but an opt-out midway through. The lefty would make $14.5MM in 2024 and then have to decide whether or not to walk away from a $13.5MM salary for 2025.
He eventually made 32 starts for the Mets in his age-32 season, logging 181 2/3 innings with a 3.47 ERA. As noted by MLBTR’s Steve Adams earlier this month, Manaea had altered his arm slot and pregame workout midseason, which seemingly made him even stronger as the year went along. Over his last 20 starts, he posted a 3.05 ERA while pairing a 26% strikeout rate with an 8% walk rate. He also made four postseason starts with the Mets as they pushed as far as game six of the NLCS.
That strong performance made it an easy decision for Manaea to opt-out and return to free agency in search of a larger guarantee. It also wasn’t tough for the Mets to issue the QO, knowing that Manaea could reject it and still have plenty of suitors in free agency. MLBTR predicted Manaea for a $60MM deal over three years, even with the QO attached.
The Mets will now be in line to receive modest compensation if Manaea eventually signs with another club. As competitive balance tax payors, they will receive a pick after the fourth round of the upcoming draft. The signing club will also be subject to a penalty, though the specifics of that will depend upon whether the signing club was a tax payor or revenue sharing recipient.
manea, severino, quintana, alonso all rejected QO
does this mean mets receive 4 xtra picks? (in the 5th rd or something?)
I believe they will get the four picks after the fourth round:
Competitive Balance Tax payors: If the team that loses the player went over the CBT threshold, the compensation pick will be placed after the fourth round has been completed. The value of the player’s contract doesn’t matter in this case.
mlb.com/glossary/transactions/qualifying-offer
mayb the xtra picks will balance out all the drops in the draft order mets are forced to make bec of their payroll last couple of yrs
Not an accurate comparison. First off, the only pick that drops for the Mets is the 1st rounder. Other picks remain in their original place. Given where the Mets finished, they will essentially not have a 1st round pick, as that pick will drop to number 37 or 38. Comparing 4th round picks to a first rounder is apples to oranges in terms of the caliber of player and chances of being major league regulars.
You’re also forgetting that the Mets will lose picks if they sign any QO players. The wat=y the penalty is set up, they will lose their second and fifth picks, which is a lot more than they get back for losing a QO player.
@johncoltrane I’m pretty sure Quintana didn’t get a QO
Yeah cause Quintana would have easily accepted. Not worth that cash and probably doesn’t fit in club plan for 2025
@lfgmets
you’re right
i swore i read he received 1
a little surprised he didnt
solid 2 yrs in queens. same #s as severino
mets have nobody in their rotation for 2025. mayb coulda used quintana for 1 more season?
Quintana declined to a QA?!?! Are you sure? That seems like a no brainer for a guy at his age. No one will pay him more AVV than what the qualifying offer would have. Maybe he wants out?
No QO for Q.
More Austin Troesser picks!!
Good luck beating that.
He probably should have taken it..
It was the right choice.
Nah. In this market, he’ll beat that.
I guess he can get a multi year deal but it won’t be for 21 million a season. This is the kind of guy that probably isn’t going to outplay his contract and has a decent chance he won’t perform up to it. These mid tier free agents are guys teams need to stay away from.
He’s probably betting he gets a bigger total dollar package, not necessarily higher AVV…3/$55M maybe?
Manaea is better than some turning down the QO. He has been consistently good for 4 years.
He’s been consistently inconsistent. Now he seems to have elevated his game.
Sean Manaea was actually really dang solid this year and it seems to built around pitch arsenal changes (although also some arm angle stuff), so I’m much more inclined to believe in the performance improvements. I’d say he’s around a 3.75 – 4.00 ERA kind of arm with solid K-rates, That doesn’t sound super tantalizing, but it’s a lot better than what he did the two years prior to this.
I don’t think it’s enough to beat the AAV of the QO–but he should be well-poised to get something like a 3 or 4-year deal in the neighborhood if $18m+ AAV IMO. That’s pretty good value as a mid-rotation piece.
I agree about the deal he will likely get.
The QO system–for all of 13 players–is idiotic. It’s been gold for the Owners in CBA negotiations, since MLBPA seems more concerned about FA than the rank and file baseball player. They just make a “concession” and get something bigger back in return..
@Mikenmn Oh No! The poor players! Whatever shall they do?! They ONLY got offered a 1 year 21 MILLION dollar deal! Say it ain’t so! I hope that they’ll be able to feed their families
No wonder why you’ve banned for being a “baseball expert” you’re insufferable as all hell can be.
How will the market play out for Manaea and Severino with QO attached?
C’mon Pivetta.
Just say no.
I believe earlier it was reported that he was leaning no. He’s one of the ones that should take it.
I agree it’s definitely in his best interest to accept.
My best interest is freeing up money to secure Burnes and/or Fried.
Now is probably not the time to leave the Mets and look elsewhere.
But of Course Darling….he rejected it
You could hear him saying all the wa in Pennsylvania….SHOW ME THE MONEY!!!!!
I’m surprised he rejected it. One of the types of pitchers that could fall through the cracks in a loaded SP market.