3:06pm: The Red Sox have officially announced Wilson’s signing. Their 40-man roster is now full.
1:08pm: Wilson will earn $2.25MM with $750K of available incentives based on games pitched, Bradford further reports.
11:49am: The Red Sox and left-hander Justin Wilson have reached agreement on a deal, per Robert Murray of FanSided on X. Rob Bradford of WEEI.com reports that it’s a one-year, major league deal that’ll pay Wilson similarly to his 2024 contract with the Reds, when he earned $1.5MM with another $1MM available via incentives. Wilson is represented by ACES.
Wilson, 37, has a lengthy track record in the majors but has struggled with injuries in recent seasons. He returned from Tommy John surgery last year to pitch 46 2/3 innings for Cincinnati but was tagged for an unsightly 5.59 earned run average in that time. A good portion of those struggles were due to spikes in his average on balls in play and home run rate, the latter of which was directly influenced by the hitter-friendly nature of his home park in Cincinnati. Seven of the ten homers surrendered by Wilson last year came at Great American Ball Park, which has been far and away MLB’s most homer-friendly setting over the past three seasons, per Statcast’s Park Factors. (Boston’s Fenway Park is right in the middle of the pack at No. 16.)
Wilson’s run-prevention numbers were uninspiring, but his rate stats were far more encouraging. Both his 24.4% strikeout rate and 6.2% walk rate were better than league average. The 95.5 mph he averaged on his four-seamer was the second-best mark of his career, trailing only his 95.9 mph average in 2017. The 92.3 mph he averaged on his cutter was a career-high. Metrics like xFIP (3.99) and SIERA (3.41), which normalize a pitcher’s homer-to-flyball rate, both feel Wilson is a strong bet to rebound in 2025 if he can continue at his 2024 pace.
From 2015-20, Wilson was one of the most consistently effective lefties in the game. He appeared in 344 games between the Yankees, Tigers, Cubs and Mets during that span, totaling 291 innings of 3.41 ERA ball with a 28.2% strikeout rate and 10.8% walk rate. His command looked far better than usual in his ’24 showing with the Reds, and his ability to miss bats didn’t seem overly compromised. The veteran Wilson is no stranger to late-inning work, having picked up 142 holds and 20 saves in his 12 major league seasons.
Entering the offseason, Brennan Bernardino was the only lefty reliever who could be comfortably projected for Boston’s 2025 bullpen. Fellow southpaws Bailey Horn, Cam Booser and Chris Murphy are all on the 40-man roster as well. However, Murphy had Tommy John surgery last year and won’t be ready for Opening Day. Horn and Booser come with little to no big league experience of which to speak. Wilson will provide skipper Alex Cora with a seasoned veteran who’s still capable of missing bats and, if he can get back to pre-surgery levels of run prevention, could eventually emerge as a viable leverage option at a bargain price point.
Woo wee!
Reds – Who needs Tanner Scott to fill the lefty reliever need when they’ve got Justin Wilson.
I know, I know …. saving money for Soto – right?
Fever, to paraphrase Latrell Sprewell, Henry’d family has to eat…
This move does not stand in the way of signing Tanner Scott or anyone else as others have pointed out below.
Been a LONG road back for him, but he’s got serious arm talent. Good low cost (presumably) signing.
If the price is right it’s not a bad signing
Each signing requires a spot on the 40 man roster, and this guy has no future. I’m not sure it is a positive at any price.
Not every move can be made with the next 5 years in mind. If he pitches well and they are winning it’s a solid move, if he pitches well and they struggle they can flip him for a lotto ticket. If not, cut him. It’s a no-lose signing
He pitches poorly and the team loses games because of it.
It might be a no lose signing if his hometown Angels had signed him because they are going to be bad regardless. But Boston plans on winning games in 2025.
Do they? Very little evidence to suggest that Boston is going to spend to win. So far their plan is to play their young players and see what happens. If they win, great, if they lose, well, the young players will improve and 2026 will be our year!
Until Henry pulls out the checkbook in a real way, I’m not ready to say they plan to win games in 2025.
The GM or president or whoever it was said they were going to try to win in 2025. He didn’t use the words full throttle again but it sounded like that’s what he meant.
Rsox – I think Red Sox Nation is pretty much had it with the “take a flyer, hope for a bounceback season” type signing.
If Bernardino and Wilson are going to be the only two lefty relievers on the team (how often do they have three?) then that means no attempt at making it a 2-Tanner team.
So in that respect, it is definitely a yes-lose signing.
Oh look. Someone wrote full throttle.
He pitches poorly and the team loses games because of it.
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Or he pitches well, right? And isn’t that the same with every player?
Sure it is. I was replying to the guy saying it was a no lose situation. It’s not its simply a gamble.
There is almost always no such thing as a ‘no lose proposition. It is marginal benefit/marginal gain. We could sign Snell and trade for Crochet, and wind up being in far worse shape.
Tff17 – He is better than Bailey Horn!!!!
just surprised they didn’t finalize this AFTER the Rule V draft. Maybe they are doing that.
Dewey – I get where you are coming from, but whoever gets added before Rule 5 does not change this add. Horn, Mata, Shugart, and other will have to be DFA as more signings happen. There are plenty of boarder line useful players who will be upgraded. They all can not be kept.
A trade of Abreu, Crawford, and minor league top 20 prospect for Garrett Crochet (3 for 1) would also open up a 40 man spot…..
Better to expose someone to the Rule 5 draft where they might be picked than to add to the 40 man knowing they will be DFA’d later.
All in the suit is right.
MLB – I just expected a trade or two before the draft. I guess in reality, there’s little interest in those players
I’m not sure that’s the way to look at it.
First, we have 47 guys requiring a spot on the 40.
Secondly, we have FAs that won’t be replaced (which means I am not counting guys like Danny Jansen. And players that simply will not be added.
So that list includes (probably) Penrod, Shugart, Garcia, Horn, Sims, Garcia, Paxton, K. Jansen, maybe Booser, Gasper, possibly Mata, and maybe Valdez.
So when the deadline comes there might be as few as 35 guys, plus a few 5-year guys. It’s too early to determine whether Wilson is taking the place of a prospect that we should be keeping.
Full throttle 2024.
Give it a rest.
Not a chance. How about they actually do something that moves the needle instead of these dumpster-dive guys?
Boston – Their 300-person analytics department spent a week creating several calculations that determined 1 out of every 9 of these type signings end up working out.
So why spend on proven talent? As John Henry said, players are expensive.
How does SIERA and xFIP “normalize” the flyball to HR ratio? If you give up bombs then you give up bombs. There is no way to nuance HR allowed. So if Wilson pitched at T-Mobile instead of Great America, he would have only surrendered 2 homeruns instead of 10 ?
Oh you’re so clever.
36 year old reliever coming off a season with 60 games pitched in and an era north of 5.5. This is going to solve Bostons bullpen issues. I can feel it in my bones.
First time pitching in like 3 years, coming back from multiple injuries. He’s really good when he’s right.
Yay another pitcher who is really good when they’re healthy and has struggled with injuries. I’m so glad yet another one signed with Boston.
Smart signing. If he gets hurt, no loss. If he stays healthy, he’s a rock in that pen.
The move just screams more of the same from the Red Sox. Instead of opening their wallets and signing actual competent players, let’s keep signing recliminaton projects.
Next up: Buehler and Bieber to help out the rotation!
Hey, I want Buehler on the Mets. Stop that.
Getting hurt is fine. But he could be healthy and pitch poorly. That would be a poor outcome for the Red Sox.
Joemo
The move just screams more of the same from the Red Sox.
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$2M for a lefty RP doesn’t scream out anything. Wait until they start spending real money for a guy in the rotation. That’s when you’ll know.
That would be a poor outcome for the Red Sox.
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Of course, And if he pitches well, that will be a good outcome for the Red Sox.
You mean like Nick Pivetta?
I kid i kid
Like the gamble here. Won’t prohibit any other moves.
Sure it will. He takes a 40 man spot. That prohibits exactly one move.
Solid move. Sleeper team.
I for one can barely contain my excitement…
I mean you’re always whining about something.
See, the Red Sox are back, baby!!!!! Dumpster diving for reclamation projects. The Mayor of Boston will probably have to call in the National Guard for crowd control with the masses showing up at Fenway to buy season tickets……….
Next up: Sox sign Buehler and Bieber to bolster the top of their rotation.
The Red Sox need to trade for Garrett Crochet. They have the position players to do so. I’d love it if Chicago would accept Casas, Abreu and a couple of lower-level prospects for him, but I believe the White Sox will want Casas, Mayer and a couple of wildcards to get the deal done (I’d still do it).
If they acquire Crochet, I like Joemo’s idea of signing Walker Buehler to a one year, “prove it” deal. I’m thinking Buehler would take a $14-$15M base with extra incentives based on IP. He’s looking to rebuild his value post TJS in 2025 and if all goes well, sign a big, multi-year deal in 2026.
If the Sox can pull this off, they’ll have plenty of money to build up the bullpen (Tanner Scott would be a great start) and also sign a big RHH bat. Pete Alonso would fit the bill if Casas gets traded. Lastly, they need to find a way to move on from Yoshida. They’ll either have to eat 60-70% of his salary or trade him for another bad contract.
If Boston can pull all of this off, they will become an instant contender in the AL. IMO, they shouldn’t trade Roman Anthony or Campbell, but everyone else, including Teel, could be made available for the right win-now player(s).
Let’s Go Sox!!!
I wouldn’t trade Casas and Abreu for Crochet. I just feel like there will be regression after a drastically increased workload. Add in that he wanted a guaranteed extension to pitch in the playoffs and i feel like something is off
Casas and Abreu is a MASSIVE overpay for Crochet.
I don’t know why the Red Sox fans are obsessed with him. No reason to break the bank to sign a guy like that who has one good season. He was also used as a reliever throughout college and the minors, so there’s no track record of him starting games year over year and he already had TJ.
There’s a strong chance Buehler will return to the Dodgers on a multi-year deal with opt-outs. The franchise rightfully values his legacy and contributions to the team. So, expect him back in Los Angeles pitching alongside his buddy Kershaw.
Until they sign a real player, I think we simply look at this off season like the last three. They will kick the tires on everyone, and sign no one healthy or helpful.
Worth noting that Bernardino could have been MORE comfortably projected for the 2024 bullpen than the 2025 bullpen, but they surprised by optioning him to begin 2024.
rhs – That’s because in their infinite wisdom they felt Joely was worth having on the roster more than Bernardino.
Joely, the guy with the 6.20 ERA over his 2 seasons combined in Boston.
Joely, the guy whom the Red Sox graciously gave $4M for the aforementioned 2 seasons of 6.20 ERA pitching. LOLOLOL!!!
Never really understood why Bailey Horn can’t seem to ever get a shot. He has been good with the Cubs and Whte Sox and Breslow knew that and obviously brought him to Boston. now it seems he’s in the same boat as always. The invisible man. I hope he gets a shot somewhere, Sometime because I have a feeling he’ll prove me right.
Unclemike1525 – Bailey Horn:
WHIP – 1.78
BA against – 2.93
In 18 innings he allowed 5 HRs
That sucks !!!!
Uncle – Maybe it was Bailey/Cora’s fault, but Horn was God-awful in his 18 games with the Red Sox ….. 6.50 ERA and 1.778 WHIP.
I actually had him circled as a depth lefty (in case Bernardino’s arm injury is more significant than we realize) so I don’t hate the player…but I do hate that it’s a major league deal! He shouldn’t guaranteed a roster spot after the last few years. More dumpster diving. They really only need to add 2-3 premium relievers (and lord knows they have the money to do it) not more of this.
The Sox need to sign top 5 free agents out there.Snell,Buehler,Soto must lead the signings.That will get fans in a positive mood.We need tickets sales.Need to fill the stadium and buy more merchandise.Taking soto away from the Yankees will move them ahead.No more bottom feeding.must spend and spend.
No, no and no. Snell is too mercurial as well as Buehler to a lesser degree and Soto is a terrible fit. LH bat and questionable defense.
lolwhy
Why not?
Seems like a low risk signing. If he gets hurt or remains ineffective, it costs the Red Sox $1.5 mill. If he returns to form, it will be a bargain.
Love playing the cheaper long shots it seems. Hope it works out!
Sox need to sign fried and trade for crochet. rotation should be fried crochet Bello houk Crawford. then invest in veteran relievers and a right handed bat. preferably id trade for arenado to get raffy off 3rd.
Honestly I don’t hate this. He’s been a solid lefty reliever when healthy and we definitely could use one of those. For that low of a price tag I’ve got no problem taking a look to see if he can return to form. As long as this doesn’t preclude real moves – it shouldn’t – I’d call this a worthy dart throw.
When? When has he been a solid lefty? 2020? That’s not last year that’s almost 5 years and multiple injuries ago. He pitched his most innings since 2018 last year. 5.59 ERA. looking for a “return to form” on a 37 year old seems wishful at best. His fastball speed was his second highest in like 8 years. He’s not coming off injury he’s off injury and the result he gave is what Sox should expect.
Dirty – So no Tanner Scott because they’ve already got Wilson, Bernardino, Booser, Horn, Murphy, Penrod?
If they truly plan to contend next year, they need a proven closer.
Liam, Whitlock, Slaten …. none are proven to be experienced and/or healthy.
Better than signing with the White Sox.
Wilson is the clear winner on this deal.
Welp, it was a nice rivalry while it lasted.
With a move like this, I see the Red Sox are once more resigned to having their team and fan base again play the role of spoilers.
Im not sure where you got the high horse from as in recent years like this century the red sox out number the yankees in titles 2-1 own thier current “ace” and were only 7-6 head to head last year..go away troll lol
By all means, read all the old newspapers and watch past Red Sox glories on YouTube. There is obviously nothing with the current team worth watching.
But then you know that already, thus the weak response is hidden behind an even weaker lol but then you should try to find laughter while you can because there is a lot of crying ahead of you.
Lol.at you
More Analytical dumpster diving. If I hear “his underlying metrics are great” I’m going to throw my computer out of the window.
Please address some meaningful holes on this roster. Second, or third, lefty out of the ‘pen is a First Place team’s priority.
It’s like lighting $3mm dollars on fire.
SadSack – The season does not start for 4 1/2 months…..LOL
Results matter but the underlying numbers matter too. They help ascertain whose results appear to be repeatable and whose don’t. If you think it’s so preposterous to say a guy who struck out a lot of batters and walked comparably few – but had ugly top line results because he got bombed in the most homer-friendly park in the league – represents a good bounceback candidate now that he’s out of Cincinnati, please enlighten us on what criteria to look for instead.
DirtyWater – Those are all excellent points. Getting out of Cincinnati will help Wilson. In the same thought, I am usually skeptical of any pitcher acquired from Seattle or San Diego, because their numbers explode once they arrive in Boston…..park matters…..and how they are deployed matters….
Dirty – 5.11 ERA away from Cincy this year.
It’s a very risky signing.
Justin of the 5.59 era last year.
hmmmmm
We have spent 4 plus years watching mediocrity in the front office. This move fits. Will it win a world series? NO. Will it cost us games? Maybe if better alternatives were available and affordable in the minds of the people making all the bizarre choices. I’m actually surprised we didn’t get more dumpster diving reactions but maybe that too is getting too mundane to even mention. The souls of the fan base are now callused so seeing a pretty worthless pick-up for next to no money is a fairly routine event.
It’s moves like this one that make me so impressed with the fans who still believe something good is going to happen. You really have to have faith when you watch nearly a half decade of bad choices and still think the next one is going to be the one that turns things around. I admire your faith but I’m just to pragmatic to buy into it. Until something good actually happens, I expect more mediocrity. No all-star signed since JD Martinez says everything about the actions of the owners and front office. At this point it doesn’t even matter who is to blame, without change there is no progress just a bunch of improved farm system guys wishing they were joining a roster with all-star throughout it, like the teams they are competing against.
Apathy my friend apathy
If you’re going to go fishing for help, you might as well do it on a guy named Justin Wilson.
Here we go
Nice. Yankees can’t hit LHP so this will help the Sox keep the Yanks in check.
Should they have waited until after the Nov 19 rule 5 draft and put someone on the 40 man to protect?
Of course they could/should have. There was no courting war for this guys services, so singing him even a week before spring training may have been doable.
Middling reliever with poor command in and out of the strike zone. I wouldn’t have minded landing him a decade ago when he was a promising arm instead of now when we know this pick up has close to zero value (except for that fat check he gets). Anyway solid arm if he stays in the minors, if he makes the team he can’t be trusted in nearly any pressure spot where being able to hit your spots against a disciplined hitter matters. Enjoy
Don’t care either way about the player, but the 40 man being filled already poses some interesting questions I’d imagine.