The Red Sox issued a qualifying offer to Nick Pivetta, reports Robert Murray of FanSided (X link). MassLive’s Chris Cotillo, who first suggested a Pivetta QO was possible, added that Tyler O’Neill will not receive the QO. Pivetta and his representatives at CAA have until November 19 to decide whether to accept.
Boston’s decision comes as at least a moderate surprise. Pivetta has been a consistent source of innings but has never quite managed high-end results. He doesn’t have a single season with an earned run average under 4.00. Pivetta consistently posts fantastic strikeout and walk numbers, but a propensity for hard contact and the home run ball deals a hit to his overall results.
The Sox have yet to quite unlock Pivetta’s full upside. They’re willing to make a significant one-year commitment to take another shot. If Pivetta accepts the offer, he’d rejoin a rotation that’ll also include Brayan Bello, Tanner Houck and potentially Kutter Crawford and Richard Fitts. The Sox should welcome Lucas Giolito back from injury in the season’s first half. There’s a decent amount of depth, particularly if Pivetta returns, though the group is still lacking a true #1 arm.
Boston neither paid the luxury tax nor received revenue sharing this past season. That puts them in the middle tier of QO compensation. If Pivetta walks, the Sox would receive a pick between the end of Competitive Balance Round B and the third round in the 2025 draft.
I might be outta the loop on this one but come again?
Big – Red Sox are banking on Pivetta declining, which he probably will because he can get at least $45M/3yrs on the open market.
As for O’Neill … told y’all.
Fever Pitch Guy – So by banking on a decline he is worth $21 Million in 2025 but he’ll be worth less after that? My confusion comes from the fact that in 2025, I didn’t see him worth $21 Million as arguably the 5th best SP on the roster assuming we get Giolito back. That would suggest the rotation’s cost should be $100Million or more (5X$20Million). I think the staff should actually cost more by adding both Snell and Bieber but without adding anyone, I think $100 Million is high. The staff should be either ACES or prospects earning arbitration type numbers. Unfortunately, Bello cashed in prematurely.
Who do you think would give Pivetta $15 for 3 years and is that what you would call SP5 money? In recent years guys like Giolito got more than he was worth as did several others and yet several got far less than one would expect. If we are riding with the current salaries of Bello and Houck and Crawford only they’ll get a small bump then it sure seems like our 5th SP should be a guy we get for less than market rather than more like all free agents under Bloom and Breslow. Isn’t time to stop over paying and jumping on guys like Lugo early so we get him below market value?
It seems like the front office has no idea how to calculate accurate pricing for contracts. I like Pivetta but not at $21 Million. and I hope someone offers him 3 for $45 Million. That we maybe we could finally get somebody under valued by jumping in early on an undervalued player.
Sag – Banking on a decline of the QO, not a decline of his performance.
Here’s why you and others are severely underestimating Pivetta’s status and value as a pitcher:
1) He has the 4th-best K/9 ratio in MLB over the past 2 years (min 250 IP) which places him behind only Snell and Glasnow and Sale.
2) He’s 48th in ERA
3) He’s 53rd in IP (despite pitching some in relief)
4) He’s 50th in WAR
5) He’s 8th in Appearances
6) He’s 18th in Strikeouts
7) He’s 5th in K% behind only Glasnow, Snell, Sale and Skubal.
8) He’s 5th in K/BB% behind only Skubal, Glasnow, Sale and Ryan.
I could provide plenty more, but I think you get the picture now ….. the guy is a #2 or #3 pitcher on most teams. Put him on a team with a better pitching coach, better defense and better relievers, and he could finally have that breakout season with an ERA around 3.00-3.50
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O’Neil…? we ALL told ya.
The Red Sox have 27 outfielders and a couple of them are cheap and a couple of them are potential or actual all stars and rookie of the year candidates and so they’re loaded.
21 million for 30 home runs and a .240 average makes zero sense. We all told ya.
Gary – Unfortunately plenty of people here and elsewhere thought O’Neill was a no-brainer to receive a QO. They looked at his power and nothing more.
Everybody expects Pivetta to accept the QO. While he could have probably seen a $45M/3yr deal without the QO tag, teams will be reluctant to part with a draft pick for a pitcher of that caliber. So he will be back with the Red Sox.
I see an argument for signing him to a $45M/3yr deal in place of the QO. If that happens, it will likely be in the next two weeks before players accept or decline the QO.
The Red Sox still need an ace. But the #2-#5 should be Houck, Bello, Pivetta, and Giolito. Because they’ll rarely all be healthy at the same time, Crawford will get his starts in — and he struggled physically with the demands of a full season so that isn’t a loss.
Fans here tend to underrate the Red Sox pitchers. They would look better with a stronger defense behind them, and in a friendlier park. Pivetta isn’t anything special, but he makes more sense than dropping a boatload of money on Flaherty or Kikuchi or another second-tier FA arm.
tff – Pivetta has pitched like a #2 over the past 2 seasons.
Gio pitched like number two his prior 2 seasons and he still got $39M guaranteed from the Sox!
I really, really think there’s zero chance of him accepting the QO.
We”ll see. I’m actually hoping they get him on a three year contract at a lower AAV, but one way or the other I expect him back.
tff – Me too, at a reasonable price.
Just keep in mind the injury he had earlier this year is often a precursor to major surgery. But I’m willing to take that chance.
tff – Just saw The Athletic projected Pivetta for even more than I did, $48M/3yrs.
I don’t usually disagree with the staff here, but all 4 projected he would accept the QO and that’s really surprising to me.
I agree that $42M-$48M/3yrs is plausible…
Thing is, he can take $21M now and then look for a deal to top $27M/2yrs next winter. That’s a pretty low bar unless he gets injured.
My guess is that teams aren’t going to want to give up $48M *and* a second round draft pick to sign Pivetta, so the comp will depress his market. They especially aren’t going to want to put an offer like that out early, when there are so many comparable pitchers around. Thus I don’t think he’ll get much definite interest (not in the range we are talking) before the deadline, and thus he’ll end up taking it. Or negotiating with the Red Sox for that three-year deal.
Starting pitching is so valuable that this is the right move.
Either they keep him for just one single year as an Innings eater and a number five starter who can flip back and forth to the bullpen and starting, or he rejects it. Great move.
If he rejects it they get a first round pick and he gets his 3-year contract.
It’s win-win. I don’t understand the statement above of hoping he’ll decline? But I love this move.
My fear with this is that if he accepts will they consider their job done in the rotation? Hope they learned last year.
Tang, you’re not wrong. I thought of that also. I wouldn’t be surprised. Fingers crossed it’s just a move to get a draft pick.
i don’t think it is a 1st rd pick but rather a sandwich after round 2 or 3. what team in their right mind would forfeit a 1st rd pick to sign Pivetta??
Randy – Three tiers of Draft pick forfeiture — based on the financial status of the signing team — are in place to serve as a penalty for signing a player who rejected a qualifying offer:
• Competitive Balance Tax payors: A team that exceeded the CBT threshold in the preceding season will lose its second- and fifth-highest selections in the following year’s Draft, as well as $1 million from its international bonus pool for the upcoming signing period. If such a team signs multiple qualifying-offer free agents, it will forfeit its third- and sixth-highest picks as well.
• Revenue-sharing recipients: A team that receives revenue-sharing money will lose its third-highest selection in the following year’s Draft. If it signs two such players, it will also forfeit its fourth-highest pick.
• All other teams: If a team does not receive revenue sharing and did not exceed the CBT salary threshold in the previous season, it will lose its second-highest selection in the following year’s Draft, as well as $500,000 from its international bonus pool for the upcoming signing period. If one of these teams signs two such players, it will also forfeit its third-highest pick.
And what some people don’t realize is if a team signs multiple players who have rejected qualifying offers, the penalties obviously decrease.
Yuck. He’s on ok pitcher he’s not worth 21 million.
Except you’re not giving anything but money should he accept. Assets kept for other trades or even dealing Pivetta and some money could be another plan. If ownership will give Giolito the deal they did and then trade Sale with $$ suggests to me they could do it again. Hopefully, the third time’s the charm…
It’s a LOT of money for a guy that under no circumstances has ever had a season worth 21 million. If you want back end starters they are out there and they don’t cost 21 million a season.
Starting pitching who can throw 150 Innings is extremely valuable in Major League Baseball right now.
And an era under 5 is sort of the thing today. 30 years ago it was an ERA under 4 for your 5th starter, but times have changed. I think this is a great move. Win-win.
It’s not that valuable……
Blackpink, yes it is.
There’s a couple counterpoints to all that…
1) you’re paying a premium to get it on a one year deal without having a player friendly option attached.
2) think about the quality of bostons defense the last few years… pitcher ability isn’t completely accurately depicted by era alone.
3) era+ ranks pivetta as slightly better than league average. Think that through to its conclusion regarding how many other pitchers must be worse than he is.
4) BOS needs more than one SP this winter, given the amount of recovering arms that had major surgeries.
So, although his accepting isn’t a given, BOS may use it as leverage to lower the price on a multi year deal with him anyways. We just don’t know.
But, I’m fine with the one year at 21m if he does take it, assuming the team continues spending
No it’s not. I bet this takes them out of the running for Burnes or Snell.
GA: Yes. If Pivetta declines the QO and there is no interest in him because the signing team will lose a draft pick, then the Red Sox would have leverage to sign him to a multi-year deal at a lower AAV than the QO. Pivetta’s only other choice would be to miss most of the season and sign after the draft when the draft pick is no longer attached to him.
I want neither Burnes nor Snell anywhere near Boston. Those are losing propositions and everyone knows it.
Snell is an off and on performer. Pitcher of the year one season or half a season and then barely so-so the next or hurt. And Burnes is going to want the moon as the number one or two guy out there. Let’s go Max Fried or a guy like that.
Sale was an off and on performer. He’s your 2024 Cy Young winner.
Good point. Kind of hard to figure out what was going on there. What happened? He struggled the last three years in Boston and suddenly puts it together? My goodness a mystery. He was always capable and a quality pitcher but it’s like what the hell happened? Crazy crazy for sure.
In my mind we couldn’t get him out of town fast enough LOL. Sure backfired.
Sale got healthy is what happened. He was also a strong performer consistently up until around that extension contract. Then it was a mix of the arm torque catching up to him, the injury being allowed to linger while putting off the needed surgery, then a couple freak accidents bike riding and a comebacker breaking a finger.
Hahahahaha. You thought they were in on those two?
GaSoxFan = I love that you recognize the ERA and WHIP impact that happens to Red Sox pitchers because of the horse crap defense we play at 3B and other positions.
Trying to predict what ownership will do with their money is a waste of time. They behave with no rhyme or reason when it comes to money. The same can be said about Breslow. If Breslow low balled guys like Giolito and O”Neill then I would be optimistic that he might do it again in 2025 but he over paid for both guys so who knows what he’ll do. Uncertainty is a state of mind in Boston. That sucks for fans.
Blackpink, Sale was absolutely NOT “off and on”. He has always been a terrific pitcher, and since the injury bug first bit him he has been a combo of injury prone and snake bitten. Not remotely like Snell.
I’m with Gary, I want to see Boston add a notable arm, but not either of those. Burnes is terrific, but he’s going to get a ton of money and hints at trending down. A sure thing cost who isn’t just not a sure thing but is outright suggesting that he could end up a bad signing is not a good idea.
Snell comes and goes and is horrible when it comes to innings, someone you can deal with at a reasonable cost but not worth a big time price tag.
Gary = If it comes down to Fried vs Snell I agree I would rather have Fried because he’s highly likely to have a great bounce back season. I’m not sure how much money will separate the two but both are legit SP#1 pitchers.
A year ago Bieber was poised to have a huge come back year.and 21 innings into it he needed TJ surgery. At a reduced cost, I am betting we can get a comparable pitcher to Fried who is right handed for much less money AND he should be ready by the all-star break at the latest. The team will have excellent pitching depth with Pivetta, Fried and Bieber added to Houck, Crawford, Bello and Giolito.
Again, it comes back to money and that’s what makes it so improbable.
Blackpink – Sale was an ON performer for Ventura, Farrell and Snitker and an OFF performer for Cora and his 60 game clone in 2020.
His talent never varied, just his manager.
Gary = Got the wrong guy out of town!!! Farrell did great with Sale.
GA = Sale was healthy the majority of the time until Cora changed his mechanics in May of 2019 and it caused stress on his elbow and TJ surgery. Had he played for Farrell a few more years, he’d be a HOF SP with at least one Cy Young if not more. That’s on ownership for pretending to be concerned about their image as bigots. Hiring an uninspired player turned cheating bench coach was not a logical solution. Girardi was available. As much as I hate the Yankees, he’s 100 times better at managing than Cora.
The nightmare in Boston could have been avoided and a dynasty could have been reigning since 2017.
exactly what Henry wants
like Pivetta?
Health. I watched an interview where he said it was the first time in years that he not only felt healthy but had the full ability to pitch in the exact way he used to without any lingering issues or discomfort. That interview was in the off season.
Health is why arguably one of the best starters in the game pitched like a Cy Young.
Personally, I didn’t think we had a good rotation with him in it, but not because he was in it. I felt the rest was a collection of 4’s, 5’s, and shouldn’t be starting at all’s. If healthy we would have pushed one of those guys to the pen, and one terrible pitcher off the staff. If unhealthy, we would have had a bad staff. The rotation performed only slightly better than anticipated due mostly to it being uncharacteristically healthy. If we would have had another injury plagued rotation, we would have been a 16+ games out rather than 13.
In the end, the Red Sox showed they had no intention of building a playoff team, so I understand why they traded him. They didn’t address any of the most blatant holes on the roster, so Sale was a luxury healthy or not. I wanted Sale, but I understood they weren’t trying to win anyway.
Well said, GA, a one year deal allows them the flexibility to replace him in 2026. Maybe Priester steps up, or maybe they go for a better FA then.
I usually figure 40% to 45% of the value in a three-year deal is attributable to the first year anyways. If you like him at $45M/3yrs, then you like a one year deal at $18M-$20M. The QO is at most a slight overpay.
They still need an ace. Burnes or Snell or Fried, or a big trade for a younger arm. Flaherty has injury red flags and is not an ace.
If the Red Sox had kept Sale they would have had a playoff team. That 1 decision was the difference.
You think Sale would have made a six game difference? Possible, but hardly certain. And even if they did slip into the Wild Card, how far would they have gotten? Sale didn’t pitch in October, and the rest of their starters were spent.
That said, an ace pitcher makes a big difference. They finally have the rest of the pieces in place and need to take that last step.
It was Giolito instead of Sale. Giolito missed the whole year Sale is gonna win the Cy Young. Yes that’s a 6 game difference.
No, Giolito didn’t pitch, so if Sale filled his shoes then he would have contributed zero. Sale’s innings would have replaced the innings of guys who did pitch. Possible that Houck would have been bumped to the pen out of Spring Training (that is Fever’s theory). Criswell would have seen fewer starts. And so on…
I agree that it could easily be a six win difference, but if the wrong guys had been bumped from the rotation it could also have been much less.
I still think they would have washed out in the WC round. The team was absolutely decimated by the end of the year.
He better accept that as quick as possible.
I find that shocking for a guy whose lifetime ERA is 4.76 and has never dipped below 4.04. But I guess the k’s and 145 innings is enough now to make over $20M a year.
Always need starters, and he’s put up decent numbers.
Acoss – He will get at least $45M from some team.
Fever, I’m not so sure in a guaranteed deal unless it’s four years. I’m thinking he takes it.
Is the free agent group this year that bad? On the other hand, does Pivetta take the $21 million for a year and figure he can still get 3 years and $45 million next year or maybe more if he has a big year? This seems like a lot for what the Sox get from him. Makes me wonder if they are worried none of the free agents are willing to come to Boston for what Henry is willing to pay.
I think I would rather try to work out something with Eovaldi since he declined his option with Texas than have Pivetta again.
Nothing about pivetta’s QO precludes any move with eovaldi. The 1 year deal does nothing to block long term, and there’s plenty of money available, it’s just a question of willingness to spend it.
Very true and unfortunately the recent past is not a good indicator that they are willing to spend.
Idk pivetta is, I believe, a little younger and more durable. On a 1 year deal, I think it’s closer than you think.
I bet you’d be less shocked if you could throw 94 miles an hour
He’s not fantastic, but he’s durable. Have you seen how durable Red Sox pitching has been the past two years?
But I agree, still kind of an overpay
It’s not $20M AAV. The idea is a one year overpay because it enables avoiding longterm commitment.
There were only 126 pitchers in the majors who managed even 100 innings last year. Pivetta was #77.
He’s a #3 pitcher on an average team or a #4 pitcher on a playoff team. Right now the rotation is Houck, Bello, Pivetta, Giolito, Crawford. They really need a true ace to put on top of that group if they want to be competitive. Pivetta is solid mid-rotation depth, but he isn’t a guy you want starting in the playoffs.
I don’t expect giolito to be ready for the start of the season let alone spring training. He went under the knife March 12.
Considering that, and the fact he’s going to have almost 2 years of rust to knock off after missing ST and the season that just happened, he should almost be looked at as a trade deadline addition for depth when considering your roster construction, not penciled as your years starting 5.
Everything I’ve read has suggested that he expects to be ready for the start of ST. I’m with you, though, the recovery year from TJ is rarely that easy.
In that case Crawford sticks as the #5.
tff – Except Gio didn’t have TJS …. he had internal brace surgery, which typically results in a shorter recovery time.
Yes, I understand. We’ll see how it goes… Pitchers are injured so often anyways, I don’t ever expect everybody to be healthy at the same time.
tff – It’s kinda weird we never hear much about Whitlock. I’m rooting for him, but I want him back really contributing …. not pitching just an inning a week. Let him ramp up in AAA, don’t rush him back like they did with Hill.
I don’t have any inside information, but I like him as a relief ace.
If you read through the lines Whitlock hadn’t been talking about wanting to be a starter the way he had in seasons past. Now the chatter has been about being open to whatever role helps him stay healthy and contribute the most by staying on the field.
That makes me agree he’s a successor to the back of the bullpen as opposed to a potential starter
And they are not giving one to ONeill???
Good gosh Red Sox what are you thinking????
You clearly have little idea of the Red Sox strengths and the value of any modicum of quality pitching on the open market
Pivetta isn’t worth 21 million on the open market. That’s simply false.
ONeill is probably looking st a 5 year 80 million dollar deal assuming Boras doesn’t f it up. ONeill would have declined the offer and even if he accepted he’s a very talented player. Pivetta is ordinary.
For one year its an over pay but he is solid and if they truly are spending its only one year…good investment
O’Neil is not getting a five year deal based on his injury history. He could get a higher than anticipated short deal with an opt out.
Considering it’s Boras ONeill will probably end up signing in April with silly opt outs. But I would give him a 5 year deal and factor his injury problems into the deal like the Twins did with Buxton.
Any team that gives O’Neill a 5 year deal is stupid. I’d rather take Pivetta at 21M$. O’Neill was a sub .700 hitter against righties (which account for 70% of the pitchers he faces).
O’Neill will not get 5 years. He’ll be lucky to find 3 w/ an opt out. Too many injury concerns and K issues to make a LT commitment.
I’d have Q0’d him but the RS have outfielders.
Even when ONeill is a sub 700 OPS hitter, and I will assume it’s barely under 700, he still contributes in other ways. 2 time gold glover. He’s one of the fastest players in the league. At ONeils best he’s a superstar. At Pivettas best he’s not worth 21 million.
Oneill is nowhere near the fastest player in the MLB. His speed is declining and that’s not going to get better with age
He’s very fast. His speed isn’t necessarily declining i just think he’s worried about getting hurt.
Tyler had a negative dWAR this season, and his sprint speed ranked him 259th best out of 556 eligible players this season.
Again I think he was worried about getting hurt. The question is can he play without being worried.
Sox have outfielders up the ying-yang. Pitchers not so much.
Then make a trade. Don’t overpay Pivetta.
Why? money they have plenty of no matter what henry and company say..good prospects are much harder to obtain
Pool = The trick is to deal the over hyped prospects and keep the ones heading toward an all-star career. The problem is Boston doesn’t have any good talent evaluators, they have politicians protecting the rear ends from bad draft choices.
You could trade at least 10 pretenders and hang on to 5 real deal guys and make this roster a lot stronger. Unfortunately, like I said, the talent evaluation in this program sucks. This is the farm system that loved Swihart not Mookie. It’s the farm system that said Jeter Downs was a great pick up at #44 prospect. It’s a system that watches Abreu and Verdugo and thinks they are good right fielders in Fenway where they are afraid of running into the wall.
Breslow’s next job is to get a qualified talent evaluator as his assistant GM. Someone who reads the stats, watches the players and learns the make-up of the players. Also, someone who speaks their mind so the urgency of moving Devers is better comprehended by all.
Lets get Henry to open his purse for smart choices and to get Breslow to deal modern day versions of Moncada, Kopech and Espinoza to other teams for pieces we are missing like a lefty quality reliever.
Yikes! Pivetta would be stupid not to accept that. I was thinking he get 3/40 or 3/45 this offseason. Now he can get $21M for 2025 and should be able to beat 2/19 or 2/24 next year.
Dotty – $45M/3yrs with an opt-out, it’s the best of both worlds.
Fully agree Dorothy. Not only that but suppose everything clicks. He then returns to the market without a QO.
I’d take the 3/45 and I assume he would as well.
For the uninformed….amazing pitching is almost nonexistent….great pitching is rare….and goood pitching is very valuable!!!!! Pivetta is good enough to be valuable to somebody!!! Breslow can use the asset somehow l!
He has an ERA and FIP over 4 and his career numbers are even worse than that. He’s never been a guy worth 21 million a year. Never in his career.
He’s averaged 150+ innings and a 102 ERA+ over the past 4 seasons, that’s fairly rare. He’s going to make some money from some one.
That’s not that rare…..
Only 32 pitchers in MLB have averaged 150+ innings per year over the past 4 seasons. That is RARE!
Ok well that is worth something. But not 21 million a year.
The 20MM would have been much better spent on an actual top of the rotation arm.
The rotation of: Houck, Bello, Giolito, Pivetta, and Crawford is not what the Sox need to push into the playoffs in 2025. As the article mentions, the Sox still lack a true ace. Let’s hope that each and every pitcher can make a big improvmeent on the previous season (again) and hope the bullpen isn’t exhausted by June because the starters don’t go deep… Yay…
Joemo – What about Sale? Oh yeah, we paid $17Million to ATL to have him win a Cy Young. Yep, I trust the front office to do the right thing!!! ha
As much as we all know we have needed two elite SPs since both Price and Sale got hurt, we’ve never once gone out and even attempted to get one. That’s the rub. What’s changed? We now have less 2018 all-stars but we have some great young prospects that have started to replace the all-stars (at Houck and Duran did). So why is ownership motivated to do more with respect to pitching.
I see another couple of projects lining up like Giolito and O’Neill who haven’t played well recently and Breslow can try and get them by paying full price or more without much competition for them. Weird philosophy demonstrated by Breslow last year. Let’s see if it improves in 2025 and legit aces are purchased.
WTF
I view this as a shrewd move if he accepts they get a solid mid rotation piece for the year sure its an overpay but who cares its 1 year and not our money
Poolhalljunkies;
You should care i you’re a Red Sox fan Every franchise has a budget for their player payroll. If a FO overpays a player, that limits what they can spend on other players.
In today’s MLB the most important positions are now those in the bullpen. Starting pitching is far riskier, because it’s far more expensive. The Rays have taught teams that a strong bullpen can be had for far less money. So what if it takes more pitchers to cover 9 innings? Teams have very good bullpen pitchers making $3m a year and less. How many bullpen pitchers does a team go through in a year. It’s far more than 15. They bring guys up from the minors, acquire bullpenners during the season.
Pivetta pitched 145 innings last year. So? They can get 3-4 bullpenners covering that – a few of whom will making less than $2m Then you have the injury risk – injuries are epidemic in MLB today – especially with pitchers.. So if one or two of the cheap pitchers go down…..OK you’re out their small salary. But if a $21m starter goes down…..
Finally, teams are realizing that batters have problems hitting a pitcher they seldom see – or have ever seen. They needs 2=4 PA’s against him to get accustomed to the pitcher. Most starting pitchers today don’t get through the opponents batting order more than twice for this reason.
I haven’t see Pivetta pitch much. Apparently the Sox FO feels he can be one of 2-3 primary starting pitchers which MLB is now evolving to. It’s their call.
Yea i disagree .starting pitching is and always will be the top commodity in mlb…it is an overpay but hes been very reliable the past 3 seasons..maybe you should watch the man pitch before you make such a well articulated judgement on the contract he was offered
Agreed that overpaying for one year is not a big deal. I’m guessing he will turn it down.
All= The acceptance of this contract is a family matter. If he wants to live in the same town for 3 to 5 years where he has family or other attractions then he will likely look for a longer deal. If he likes Boston, I’m guessing he bets on himself and thinks he can prove he deserves a longer contract in the future. He’s got a great attitude and his stuff has proven to be much better than originally thought.
So much for signing an ace this off-season. Drats! We better at least upgrade the bullpen
Seriously. The Cardinals signed Sonny Gray to a backloaded 3 year 75 million dollar deal last year. And he was the Cy Young runner up. These qualifying offers to guys like Severino and Pivetta are insane. What are they thinking?
This is a statement about the quality of the free agent market as much as Pivetta.
Nonsense. This is a statement about organizations not knowing how to value talent.
I’d definitely take Kyle Gibson and expect the same performance for less money.
Yeah as a Cardinals fan I am fine with them letting Gibson go because the team has a lot of potential back end starters that deserve a shot. But for most teams yeah he’s solid and he’s probably gonna cost less than half what Pivetta costs.
As an Angels fan I’d love to add Gibson. A consistent veteran to balance out all the young guys a bit.
No brainer. Accept the QO.
He might not. Starting pitching is Pretty Tough find out there right now. It’s like Bullpen games are a thing now LOL
As others have pointed out, he can probably get a 3 year deal. Might be his last contract at his age if he can’t fix his inconsistency issues.
Pivetta would be stupid to turn it down. Tough to see a team signing him for what he wants with a pick attached.
That being said, I am losing hope for the 2025 season already. Not excited for a rotation still lacking the true top of the rotation arms. Could have invested that 20MM in a different guy. Breslow attacks the pitching issues without the right intensity. I learned from the lackluster deadline acquisition of only Paxton, I won’t be holding my breathe for any meaningful additions to the rotation. What a joke of a move.
He’ll be signing that QO ASAP.
Maybe Pivetta would have found a $45m/3yr contract if there wasn’t a QO. But with the loss of a draft pick attached, I doubt he’ll find more than $28mm/2
Bc – It’s slim pickings for pitchers this offseason, some team will give him $45M.
Here’s the thing about Pivetta he strikes a lot of guys out and he doesn’t walk a lot of guys. He’s an extreme fly ball pitcher that would benefit from a park like Detroit, Kansas City, Seattle, San Francisco. I could see a team in one of those parks giving him 45/3 very easily.
3/45 was very doable. But now do teams value him enough to go 3/45 and forfeit their second round pick and IFA signing money?
Teams value that stuff a lot more now a days.
Don’t get me wrong, I like PIvetta, I think he’s a decent pitcher. I just don’t love that the Sox potentially have 20MM tied up in him.
I think Breslow knows if he manages to convince any of the top pitchers to come to Boston he loses that draft pick. If Pivetta gets signed by another team which I think is very likely then he kind of gains that pick back just maybe a little later in the draft. The Red Sox have done well in the draft on compensatory picks. In 2022 they added Anthony as the compensatory pick for Eddie and 2023 they added Campbell for Bogey.
Bruin – Don’t you think Atlanta would be a perfect place for him? He’s one of the best strikeout pitchers in the game, has really good control, just needs to cut back on the homeruns. I’ve always said he’s one of the most volatile pitchers in the game, seems like he is capable of either a no-hitter or a 6-run drubbing …. not many games where he is just so-so. Braves could probably fix him, and his BFF Sale would love to have him as a teammate again.
For some reason, I seem to be in the minority when it comes to trusting data more than anecdotal evidence and the “eyeball test”.
Anyone claiming that Tyler O’Neill offers high end base running skill is completely ignoring measurable data, as available to any and all of us, on MLB’s own Baseball Savant reference site.
According to this year’s data, O’Neill was in the 55th percentile among all base runners this year, which means that 55% of all major league baseball runners were as fast as, or slower than O’Neill, or, conversely, that approximately 45% of all runners were faster. Any way that you prefer to look at it, ranking in the 55th percentile means that O’Neill is pretty much an average runner – and that almost half of all players were faster in 2024.
Using the same site, you can track O’Neill throughout his entire career, beginning in 2018, with the Cardinals. Up to, and including the 2022 season, he was, in fact, a burner, ranking 17th, 8th, 7th, 16th and 16th, but, beginning in 2023, injuries appear to have taken a significant toll on O’Neill’s foot speed. After a 16th fastest showing in 2022, he dropped to a 122nd fastest rank in 2023, and in this most recent season, he was ranked as the 253rd fastest runner in the game.
It’s fair to believe that an injury free year in 2025 might give Tyler O’Neill an opportunity to showcase his former speed, but until then, he can’t fairly be counted as a blazer on the base paths at age 29.
More interesting data on the page raises concern that O’Neill is becoming a more extreme fly ball and pull hitter, and that opposing pitchers are getting him out with a steady diet of off speed pitches.
The data shows that his fielding range is almost non-existent, ranking among the worst in baseball, and that his strikeout rate is horrendous.
Argue that his 2024 season was unrepresentative, but don’t use this most recent campaign to tab him as an elite hitter, fielder, or base runner. His 2024 performance attests to none of those qualities. He looks the part of a hard-nose competitor, but he’s not currently performing like a star.
Kidding – Anybody who thinks O’Neill is a great hitter, fielder or runner either didn’t watch this year or is living in the past.
He WAS all those things for just one season, three years ago.
Fever Pitch Guy
The Red Sox need to avoid players with high strikeout percentages of 30+.
O’Neil is one of them and his bat with RISP was bad in 2024.
As I said before, the Red Sox’s strength in 2024 was speed – Duran, Hamilton, Rafaela were terrors on the base paths.
Imagine, if Campbell or Anthony cracked spring training and Story was healthy in 2025.
Duran, Hamilton, Rafaela, Story, Anthony (Campbell) will terrorize the pitchers and catchers of other teams.
bogie – I mostly agree with your post, except for two things:
1) Romy was excellent on the basepaths with 11 SB’s in 14 attempts.
2) Rafaela sucked on the bases because he is not very bright and doesn’t have good baseball instincts. Remember when he got tagged out at 3B for standing on the grass while he was having a conversation with the 3B coach?
Speed doesn’t necessarily translate to a great baserunner. Some guys such as Tek were slow runners who had good success on the bases because of their intelligence and instincts.
Then you have Rafaela who got caught stealing an unbelievable 10 times out of 29 attempts. What the hell is Cora doing giving him the green light?? Rafaela needs to either play smarter or stop trying to steal bases, especially with a great hitter like Duran batting behind him.
Fever Pitch Guy
Of course, there is also Romy, but he isn’t the main player, but even in those moments when he plays he is a threat.
As I recall, Rafaela had a streak in 2024 where he stole 7 or 8 bases in a row without getting caught.
Ceddanne is quite young and don’t forget that this is his first full season in MLB.
I expect his game to improve, both offensively and on the base paths, next season.
bogie – I hope you’re right because they will have Rafaela for a long, long time!
Interesting postscript:
One of the players that Baseball Savant has rated as most similar to Tyler O’Neill (based on stats) is Rockies’ first baseman, Michael Toglia, who is 3 years younger (26) and providing his similar numbers as a pre-arbitration player, earning $742,000.
Paying Tyler O’Neill $21 million for a firm jaw, ripped abs, a steely-eyed gaze and a Marine Corps haircut doesn’t seem like a good trade.
Kidding Right? = The elephant in the room with O’Neill is his inability to stay healthy. Before you start evaluating skills you must ratchet down the games played to 120 per year. That brings forth the question of who plays the other 40 games and at what additional cost.
Now add to all the uncertainty of how often he plays to the fact that we have an all-star outfielder in Duran, a platoon outfielder who inexplicably won a gold glove, a speedster acrobatic outfielder who is completely disrespected by Cora despite having a talent level comparable to where Duran was two years ago, two stud hitters in AAA who both COULD play outfield and a DH/OF who is more DH than OF but is yet another player in the running for a starting spot. All this considered, nobody should be mentioning O’Neill for 2025 BUT don’t be surprised if Breslow does since he was about the only person in Boston who thought it was smart to sign him in 2024.
Over the course of two seasons the Red Sox will have spent close to $100m for Sale to win a Cy Young with the Braves and Giolito and Pivetta. Ouch.
And just before those moves, the great Paxton signing and trade!
What am I not seeing in Pivetta?
I think he’s a reliable fifth starter that can eat innings. In my opinion the whole thing is that the starting pitching Market is so thin right now. It’s like Bullpen games are a thing currently, even in the playoffs lol.
So if you can get a guy that’ll give you 150 innings and less than 5.00 era you’re okay.
It’s kind of a high dollar amount at 21 million but it’s only one year and probably worth it at this time. If he leaves you get the draft pick or he comes back around and signs for 2 years and less annual money.
He’s not a star but he’s reliable and won’t complain if you put him in the bullpen as a long man too. Just my opinion.
Tough to find starting pitching is the bottom line. Here’s a guy who’s pitched in the American League East for the last 4 years. That means something also.
Gary – Sorry but calling Pivetta a 5th starter is beyond devaluing him, look at his 2023-2024 numbers i just posted up above.
I always felt Pivetta was going to get a QO, and as usual that “insider” who reported he wouldn’t was full of crap.
Fever, makes sense. Thank you. I was just thinking that 4 to 5 era wasn’t really 3rd starter material. But I should give him more credit, especially if I’m all over this signing for one year.
Gary – Basically a sub-3.50 ERA is an ace, 3.50-3.99 is a #2, 4.00-4.49 is a #3, 4.50-4.99 is a #4 and 5+ ERA is a #5.
Over the past 2 seasons combined, no qualified pitcher has had a sub-3 ERA and only 10 have had a sub-3.50 ERA.
Pivetta’s 4.09 ERA over the past 2 seasons combined is 2nd-best on the team behind only Houck’s 3.83 ERA.
Crawford is 4.23 and Bello is 4.37
BTW – Giolito is 4.89 over his last two seasons and he got $39M from the Red Sox!!!
Great points Fever. Times have changed for sure.
Giolito went through a divorce in 2023 which likely had a big effect on his numbers.
Gary – They sure have. In fact with starters pitching so few innings these days, MLB may need to reduce it’s qualifying innings for awards and whatnot. Maybe lower the ERA title down to 140 innings minimum?
Fever – I’m fine with leaving the 162 IP cutoff where it is.
Think of it like this. If a pitcher made 28 minimum starts, or in other words was relatively healthy, and, he made it 6IP on average that alone was 168IP.
I don’t think it’s unreasonable to expect the title winner to either have been healthy, or put up a large number of quality starts.
In a perfect season you’d see roughly 32 turns through the rotation so there is an ability to be banged up a little or have a clunker here or there.
GASox – Personally I don’t care what the minimum is because it mostly affects just the ERA crown, it doesn’t affect the Cy voting or anything else.
But when you look at the number of pitchers who have tossed at least 162 this season, it’s a real eye opener. Not many at all were able.
Red Sox just peed into Pivetta’s free agent pool. I imagine other teams won’t give up a pick to sign Pivetta, so he’ll be stuck negotiating with the Sox alone.
Now, I think most recognize $21 might be slightly above market for Pivetta; however, this is a gambit by the Sox. Pivetta can accept and forgo security or if he wants more seasons, he’ll have to play ball with the Sox, who will proceed to give him lower offers.
If I were Pivetta and I trusted my arm and health, go for the QO and attack ’25 like a moose in rut. Call Red Sox out and find a better opportunity.
This is a good deal. One less pitcher to worry about. If we had to go out and replace him, then would have to give up multiple years and options and all that happy horsesh*t. If he screws it up, we don’t have to deal with it next year. If he excels, then it’s a bargin.
Nick should consider stay with the Sox and transform is career by becoming a closer. With his plus stuff I can envision him in a Dennis Eckersly like career resurgence and a lengthy ride.