The Red Sox issued a qualifying offer to Nick Pivetta, reports Robert Murray of FanSided (X link). MassLive’s Chris Cotillo, who first suggested a Pivetta QO was possible, added that Tyler O’Neill will not receive the QO. Pivetta and his representatives at CAA have until November 19 to decide whether to accept.
Boston’s decision comes as at least a moderate surprise. Pivetta has been a consistent source of innings but has never quite managed high-end results. He doesn’t have a single season with an earned run average under 4.00. Pivetta consistently posts fantastic strikeout and walk numbers, but a propensity for hard contact and the home run ball deals a hit to his overall results.
The Sox have yet to quite unlock Pivetta’s full upside. They’re willing to make a significant one-year commitment to take another shot. If Pivetta accepts the offer, he’d rejoin a rotation that’ll also include Brayan Bello, Tanner Houck and potentially Kutter Crawford and Richard Fitts. The Sox should welcome Lucas Giolito back from injury in the season’s first half. There’s a decent amount of depth, particularly if Pivetta returns, though the group is still lacking a true #1 arm.
Boston neither paid the luxury tax nor received revenue sharing this past season. That puts them in the middle tier of QO compensation. If Pivetta walks, the Sox would receive a pick between the end of Competitive Balance Round B and the third round in the 2025 draft.
I might be outta the loop on this one but come again?
Big – Red Sox are banking on Pivetta declining, which he probably will because he can get at least $45M/3yrs on the open market.
As for O’Neill … told y’all.
Fever Pitch Guy – So by banking on a decline he is worth $21 Million in 2025 but he’ll be worth less after that? My confusion comes from the fact that in 2025, I didn’t see him worth $21 Million as arguably the 5th best SP on the roster assuming we get Giolito back. That would suggest the rotation’s cost should be $100Million or more (5X$20Million). I think the staff should actually cost more by adding both Snell and Bieber but without adding anyone, I think $100 Million is high. The staff should be either ACES or prospects earning arbitration type numbers. Unfortunately, Bello cashed in prematurely.
Who do you think would give Pivetta $15 for 3 years and is that what you would call SP5 money? In recent years guys like Giolito got more than he was worth as did several others and yet several got far less than one would expect. If we are riding with the current salaries of Bello and Houck and Crawford only they’ll get a small bump then it sure seems like our 5th SP should be a guy we get for less than market rather than more like all free agents under Bloom and Breslow. Isn’t time to stop over paying and jumping on guys like Lugo early so we get him below market value?
It seems like the front office has no idea how to calculate accurate pricing for contracts. I like Pivetta but not at $21 Million. and I hope someone offers him 3 for $45 Million. That we maybe we could finally get somebody under valued by jumping in early on an undervalued player.
O’Neil…? we ALL told ya.
The Red Sox have 27 outfielders and a couple of them are cheap and a couple of them are potential or actual all stars and rookie of the year candidates and so they’re loaded.
21 million for 30 home runs and a .240 average makes zero sense. We all told ya.
Starting pitching is so valuable that this is the right move.
Either they keep him for just one single year as an Innings eater and a number five starter who can flip back and forth to the bullpen and starting, or he rejects it. Great move.
If he rejects it they get a first round pick and he gets his 3-year contract.
It’s win-win. I don’t understand the statement above of hoping he’ll decline? But I love this move.
My fear with this is that if he accepts will they consider their job done in the rotation? Hope they learned last year.
Tang, you’re not wrong. I thought of that also. I wouldn’t be surprised. Fingers crossed it’s just a move to get a draft pick.
Yuck. He’s on ok pitcher he’s not worth 21 million.
Except you’re not giving anything but money should he accept. Assets kept for other trades or even dealing Pivetta and some money could be another plan. If ownership will give Giolito the deal they did and then trade Sale with $$ suggests to me they could do it again. Hopefully, the third time’s the charm…
It’s a LOT of money for a guy that under no circumstances has ever had a season worth 21 million. If you want back end starters they are out there and they don’t cost 21 million a season.
Starting pitching who can throw 150 Innings is extremely valuable in Major League Baseball right now.
And an era under 5 is sort of the thing today. 30 years ago it was an ERA under 4 for your 5th starter, but times have changed. I think this is a great move. Win-win.
It’s not that valuable……
Blackpink, yes it is.
There’s a couple counterpoints to all that…
1) you’re paying a premium to get it on a one year deal without having a player friendly option attached.
2) think about the quality of bostons defense the last few years… pitcher ability isn’t completely accurately depicted by era alone.
3) era+ ranks pivetta as slightly better than league average. Think that through to its conclusion regarding how many other pitchers must be worse than he is.
4) BOS needs more than one SP this winter, given the amount of recovering arms that had major surgeries.
So, although his accepting isn’t a given, BOS may use it as leverage to lower the price on a multi year deal with him anyways. We just don’t know.
But, I’m fine with the one year at 21m if he does take it, assuming the team continues spending
No it’s not. I bet this takes them out of the running for Burnes or Snell.
GA: Yes. If Pivetta declines the QO and there is no interest in him because the signing team will lose a draft pick, then the Red Sox would have leverage to sign him to a multi-year deal at a lower AAV than the QO. Pivetta’s only other choice would be to miss most of the season and sign after the draft when the draft pick is no longer attached to him.
I want neither Burnes nor Snell anywhere near Boston. Those are losing propositions and everyone knows it.
Snell is an off and on performer. Pitcher of the year one season or half a season and then barely so-so the next or hurt. And Burnes is going to want the moon as the number one or two guy out there. Let’s go Max Fried or a guy like that.
Sale was an off and on performer. He’s your 2024 Cy Young winner.
Good point. Kind of hard to figure out what was going on there. What happened? He struggled the last three years in Boston and suddenly puts it together? My goodness a mystery. He was always capable and a quality pitcher but it’s like what the hell happened? Crazy crazy for sure.
In my mind we couldn’t get him out of town fast enough LOL. Sure backfired.
Sale got healthy is what happened. He was also a strong performer consistently up until around that extension contract. Then it was a mix of the arm torque catching up to him, the injury being allowed to linger while putting off the needed surgery, then a couple freak accidents bike riding and a comebacker breaking a finger.
Hahahahaha. You thought they were in on those two?
GaSoxFan = I love that you recognize the ERA and WHIP impact that happens to Red Sox pitchers because of the horse crap defense we play at 3B and other positions.
Trying to predict what ownership will do with their money is a waste of time. They behave with no rhyme or reason when it comes to money. The same can be said about Breslow. If Breslow low balled guys like Giolito and O”Neill then I would be optimistic that he might do it again in 2025 but he over paid for both guys so who knows what he’ll do. Uncertainty is a state of mind in Boston. That sucks for fans.
Blackpink, Sale was absolutely NOT “off and on”. He has always been a terrific pitcher, and since the injury bug first bit him he has been a combo of injury prone and snake bitten. Not remotely like Snell.
I’m with Gary, I want to see Boston add a notable arm, but not either of those. Burnes is terrific, but he’s going to get a ton of money and hints at trending down. A sure thing cost who isn’t just not a sure thing but is outright suggesting that he could end up a bad signing is not a good idea.
Snell comes and goes and is horrible when it comes to innings, someone you can deal with at a reasonable cost but not worth a big time price tag.
Gary = If it comes down to Fried vs Snell I agree I would rather have Fried because he’s highly likely to have a great bounce back season. I’m not sure how much money will separate the two but both are legit SP#1 pitchers.
A year ago Bieber was poised to have a huge come back year.and 21 innings into it he needed TJ surgery. At a reduced cost, I am betting we can get a comparable pitcher to Fried who is right handed for much less money AND he should be ready by the all-star break at the latest. The team will have excellent pitching depth with Pivetta, Fried and Bieber added to Houck, Crawford, Bello and Giolito.
Again, it comes back to money and that’s what makes it so improbable.
Blackpink – Sale was an ON performer for Ventura, Farrell and Snitker and an OFF performer for Cora and his 60 game clone in 2020.
His talent never varied, just his manager.
Gary = Got the wrong guy out of town!!! Farrell did great with Sale.
GA = Sale was healthy the majority of the time until Cora changed his mechanics in May of 2019 and it caused stress on his elbow and TJ surgery. Had he played for Farrell a few more years, he’d be a HOF SP with at least one Cy Young if not more. That’s on ownership for pretending to be concerned about their image as bigots. Hiring an uninspired player turned cheating bench coach was not a logical solution. Girardi was available. As much as I hate the Yankees, he’s 100 times better at managing than Cora.
The nightmare in Boston could have been avoided and a dynasty could have been reigning since 2017.
He better accept that as quick as possible.
I find that shocking for a guy whose lifetime ERA is 4.76 and has never dipped below 4.04. But I guess the k’s and 145 innings is enough now to make over $20M a year.
Always need starters, and he’s put up decent numbers.
Acoss – He will get at least $45M from some team.
Fever, I’m not so sure in a guaranteed deal unless it’s four years. I’m thinking he takes it.
Is the free agent group this year that bad? On the other hand, does Pivetta take the $21 million for a year and figure he can still get 3 years and $45 million next year or maybe more if he has a big year? This seems like a lot for what the Sox get from him. Makes me wonder if they are worried none of the free agents are willing to come to Boston for what Henry is willing to pay.
I think I would rather try to work out something with Eovaldi since he declined his option with Texas than have Pivetta again.
Nothing about pivetta’s QO precludes any move with eovaldi. The 1 year deal does nothing to block long term, and there’s plenty of money available, it’s just a question of willingness to spend it.
Very true and unfortunately the recent past is not a good indicator that they are willing to spend.
Idk pivetta is, I believe, a little younger and more durable. On a 1 year deal, I think it’s closer than you think.
I bet you’d be less shocked if you could throw 94 miles an hour
He’s not fantastic, but he’s durable. Have you seen how durable Red Sox pitching has been the past two years?
But I agree, still kind of an overpay
It’s not $20M AAV. The idea is a one year overpay because it enables avoiding longterm commitment.
And they are not giving one to ONeill???
Good gosh Red Sox what are you thinking????
You clearly have little idea of the Red Sox strengths and the value of any modicum of quality pitching on the open market
Pivetta isn’t worth 21 million on the open market. That’s simply false.
ONeill is probably looking st a 5 year 80 million dollar deal assuming Boras doesn’t f it up. ONeill would have declined the offer and even if he accepted he’s a very talented player. Pivetta is ordinary.
For one year its an over pay but he is solid and if they truly are spending its only one year…good investment
O’Neil is not getting a five year deal based on his injury history. He could get a higher than anticipated short deal with an opt out.
Considering it’s Boras ONeill will probably end up signing in April with silly opt outs. But I would give him a 5 year deal and factor his injury problems into the deal like the Twins did with Buxton.
Any team that gives O’Neill a 5 year deal is stupid. I’d rather take Pivetta at 21M$. O’Neill was a sub .700 hitter against righties (which account for 70% of the pitchers he faces).
O’Neill will not get 5 years. He’ll be lucky to find 3 w/ an opt out. Too many injury concerns and K issues to make a LT commitment.
I’d have Q0’d him but the RS have outfielders.
Even when ONeill is a sub 700 OPS hitter, and I will assume it’s barely under 700, he still contributes in other ways. 2 time gold glover. He’s one of the fastest players in the league. At ONeils best he’s a superstar. At Pivettas best he’s not worth 21 million.
Oneill is nowhere near the fastest player in the MLB. His speed is declining and that’s not going to get better with age
He’s very fast. His speed isn’t necessarily declining i just think he’s worried about getting hurt.
Tyler had a negative dWAR this season, and his sprint speed ranked him 259th best out of 556 eligible players this season.
Again I think he was worried about getting hurt. The question is can he play without being worried.
Sox have outfielders up the ying-yang. Pitchers not so much.
Then make a trade. Don’t overpay Pivetta.
Why? money they have plenty of no matter what henry and company say..good prospects are much harder to obtain
Yikes! Pivetta would be stupid not to accept that. I was thinking he get 3/40 or 3/45 this offseason. Now he can get $21M for 2025 and should be able to beat 2/19 or 2/24 next year.
Dotty – $45M/3yrs with an opt-out, it’s the best of both worlds.
Fully agree Dorothy. Not only that but suppose everything clicks. He then returns to the market without a QO.
I’d take the 3/45 and I assume he would as well.
For the uninformed….amazing pitching is almost nonexistent….great pitching is rare….and goood pitching is very valuable!!!!! Pivetta is good enough to be valuable to somebody!!! Breslow can use the asset somehow l!
He has an ERA and FIP over 4 and his career numbers are even worse than that. He’s never been a guy worth 21 million a year. Never in his career.
He’s averaged 150+ innings and a 102 ERA+ over the past 4 seasons, that’s fairly rare. He’s going to make some money from some one.
That’s not that rare…..
Only 32 pitchers in MLB have averaged 150+ innings per year over the past 4 seasons. That is RARE!
Ok well that is worth something. But not 21 million a year.
The 20MM would have been much better spent on an actual top of the rotation arm.
The rotation of: Houck, Bello, Giolito, Pivetta, and Crawford is not what the Sox need to push into the playoffs in 2025. As the article mentions, the Sox still lack a true ace. Let’s hope that each and every pitcher can make a big improvmeent on the previous season (again) and hope the bullpen isn’t exhausted by June because the starters don’t go deep… Yay…
Joemo – What about Sale? Oh yeah, we paid $17Million to ATL to have him win a Cy Young. Yep, I trust the front office to do the right thing!!! ha
As much as we all know we have needed two elite SPs since both Price and Sale got hurt, we’ve never once gone out and even attempted to get one. That’s the rub. What’s changed? We now have less 2018 all-stars but we have some great young prospects that have started to replace the all-stars (at Houck and Duran did). So why is ownership motivated to do more with respect to pitching.
I see another couple of projects lining up like Giolito and O’Neill who haven’t played well recently and Breslow can try and get them by paying full price or more without much competition for them. Weird philosophy demonstrated by Breslow last year. Let’s see if it improves in 2025 and legit aces are purchased.
WTF
I view this as a shrewd move if he accepts they get a solid mid rotation piece for the year sure its an overpay but who cares its 1 year and not our money
Poolhalljunkies;
You should care i you’re a Red Sox fan Every franchise has a budget for their player payroll. If a FO overpays a player, that limits what they can spend on other players.
In today’s MLB the most important positions are now those in the bullpen. Starting pitching is far riskier, because it’s far more expensive. The Rays have taught teams that a strong bullpen can be had for far less money. So what if it takes more pitchers to cover 9 innings? Teams have very good bullpen pitchers making $3m a year and less. How many bullpen pitchers does a team go through in a year. It’s far more than 15. They bring guys up from the minors, acquire bullpenners during the season.
Pivetta pitched 145 innings last year. So? They can get 3-4 bullpenners covering that – a few of whom will making less than $2m Then you have the injury risk – injuries are epidemic in MLB today – especially with pitchers.. So if one or two of the cheap pitchers go down…..OK you’re out their small salary. But if a $21m starter goes down…..
Finally, teams are realizing that batters have problems hitting a pitcher they seldom see – or have ever seen. They needs 2=4 PA’s against him to get accustomed to the pitcher. Most starting pitchers today don’t get through the opponents batting order more than twice for this reason.
I haven’t see Pivetta pitch much. Apparently the Sox FO feels he can be one of 2-3 primary starting pitchers which MLB is now evolving to. It’s their call.
Yea i disagree .starting pitching is and always will be the top commodity in mlb…it is an overpay but hes been very reliable the past 3 seasons..maybe you should watch the man pitch before you make such a well articulated judgement on the contract he was offered
Agreed that overpaying for one year is not a big deal. I’m guessing he will turn it down.
So much for signing an ace this off-season. Drats! We better at least upgrade the bullpen
Seriously. The Cardinals signed Sonny Gray to a backloaded 3 year 75 million dollar deal last year. And he was the Cy Young runner up. These qualifying offers to guys like Severino and Pivetta are insane. What are they thinking?
This is a statement about the quality of the free agent market as much as Pivetta.
Nonsense. This is a statement about organizations not knowing how to value talent.
I’d definitely take Kyle Gibson and expect the same performance for less money.
Yeah as a Cardinals fan I am fine with them letting Gibson go because the team has a lot of potential back end starters that deserve a shot. But for most teams yeah he’s solid and he’s probably gonna cost less than half what Pivetta costs.
As an Angels fan I’d love to add Gibson. A consistent veteran to balance out all the young guys a bit.
No brainer. Accept the QO.
He might not. Starting pitching is Pretty Tough find out there right now. It’s like Bullpen games are a thing now LOL
As others have pointed out, he can probably get a 3 year deal. Might be his last contract at his age if he can’t fix his inconsistency issues.
Pivetta would be stupid to turn it down. Tough to see a team signing him for what he wants with a pick attached.
That being said, I am losing hope for the 2025 season already. Not excited for a rotation still lacking the true top of the rotation arms. Could have invested that 20MM in a different guy. Breslow attacks the pitching issues without the right intensity. I learned from the lackluster deadline acquisition of only Paxton, I won’t be holding my breathe for any meaningful additions to the rotation. What a joke of a move.
He’ll be signing that QO ASAP.
Maybe Pivetta would have found a $45m/3yr contract if there wasn’t a QO. But with the loss of a draft pick attached, I doubt he’ll find more than $28mm/2
Bc – It’s slim pickings for pitchers this offseason, some team will give him $45M.
Here’s the thing about Pivetta he strikes a lot of guys out and he doesn’t walk a lot of guys. He’s an extreme fly ball pitcher that would benefit from a park like Detroit, Kansas City, Seattle, San Francisco. I could see a team in one of those parks giving him 45/3 very easily.
3/45 was very doable. But now do teams value him enough to go 3/45 and forfeit their second round pick and IFA signing money?
Teams value that stuff a lot more now a days.
Don’t get me wrong, I like PIvetta, I think he’s a decent pitcher. I just don’t love that the Sox potentially have 20MM tied up in him.
For some reason, I seem to be in the minority when it comes to trusting data more than anecdotal evidence and the “eyeball test”.
Anyone claiming that Tyler O’Neill offers high end base running skill is completely ignoring measurable data, as available to any and all of us, on MLB’s own Baseball Savant reference site.
According to this year’s data, O’Neill was in the 55th percentile among all base runners this year, which means that 55% of all major league baseball runners were as fast as, or slower than O’Neill, or, conversely, that approximately 45% of all runners were faster. Any way that you prefer to look at it, ranking in the 55th percentile means that O’Neill is pretty much an average runner – and that almost half of all players were faster in 2024.
Using the same site, you can track O’Neill throughout his entire career, beginning in 2018, with the Cardinals. Up to, and including the 2022 season, he was, in fact, a burner, ranking 17th, 8th, 7th, 16th and 16th, but, beginning in 2023, injuries appear to have taken a significant toll on O’Neill’s foot speed. After a 16th fastest showing in 2022, he dropped to a 122nd fastest rank in 2023, and in this most recent season, he was ranked as the 253rd fastest runner in the game.
It’s fair to believe that an injury free year in 2025 might give Tyler O’Neill an opportunity to showcase his former speed, but until then, he can’t fairly be counted as a blazer on the base paths at age 29.
More interesting data on the page raises concern that O’Neill is becoming a more extreme fly ball and pull hitter, and that opposing pitchers are getting him out with a steady diet of off speed pitches.
The data shows that his fielding range is almost non-existent, ranking among the worst in baseball, and that his strikeout rate is horrendous.
Argue that his 2024 season was unrepresentative, but don’t use this most recent campaign to tab him as an elite hitter, fielder, or base runner. His 2024 performance attests to none of those qualities. He looks the part of a hard-nose competitor, but he’s not currently performing like a star.
Interesting postscript:
One of the players that Baseball Savant has rated as most similar to Tyler O’Neill (based on stats) is Rockies’ first baseman, Michael Toglia, who is 3 years younger (26) and providing his similar numbers as a pre-arbitration player, earning $742,000.
Paying Tyler O’Neill $21 million for a firm jaw, ripped abs, a steely-eyed gaze and a Marine Corps haircut doesn’t seem like a good trade.
Over the course of two seasons the Red Sox will have spent close to $100m for Sale to win a Cy Young with the Braves and Giolito and Pivetta. Ouch.
And just before those moves, the great Paxton signing and trade!
What am I not seeing in Pivetta?
Red Sox just peed into Pivetta’s free agent pool. I imagine other teams won’t give up a pick to sign Pivetta, so he’ll be stuck negotiating with the Sox alone.
Now, I think most recognize $21 might be slightly above market for Pivetta; however, this is a gambit by the Sox. Pivetta can accept and forgo security or if he wants more seasons, he’ll have to play ball with the Sox, who will proceed to give him lower offers.
If I were Pivetta and I trusted my arm and health, go for the QO and attack ’25 like a moose in rut. Call Red Sox out and find a better opportunity.