Roki Sasaki’s impending move to Major League Baseball will have a big impact on the offseason pitching market, but plenty of shockwaves will be felt throughout the international signing market. Baseball America’s Ben Badler recently outlined how several other prospects will be affected if Sasaki’s 45-day posting window stretches beyond January 15 and the start of the next international signing period. If Sasaki doesn’t sign until after January 15, teams will have to use funds from their 2025 signing pools to sign him, rather than their 2024 pools. The 2024 signing period closes on December 15, further narrowing the window of time for Sasaki and an MLB team to finalize a contract.
Since it seems likely Sasaki will indeed still be unsigned by January 15, Badler observes that multiple teams could end up putting their plans for the next signing period entirely on hold until the right-hander makes his decision. This means that the many prospects already committed to these teams on unofficial deals will be in limbo, and the club that finally lands Sasaki is likely to walk away from those pre-existing handshake deals if it means landing the Japanese star. It would leave that team’s set of international prospects suddenly looking to land elsewhere, and potentially other clubs’ prospects might also walk away from their agreements if nothing is finalized on January 15. As Badler notes, teams that aren’t in the running for Sasaki could benefit in swooping in to sign some extra prospects in the aftermath.
The entire situation adds a lot of extra drama to what is normally a fairly routine day on the calendar, as clubs have had these deals with these young January 15th prospects worked out years in advance, sometimes when the players are barely teenagers. Needless to say, it creates a lot of disruption for the players, their families, and their trainers who helped arrange the signings, as what looked like safe pre-arranged windfalls might now be in question. As much as Sasaki may have a higher clear upside than an entire bonus pool’s worth of international prospects, abandoning a January 15th class could create some hard feelings for a team in their future int’l dealings.
More from around the baseball world…
- The meeting between Juan Soto and the Mets took place this past Saturday, with the New York Post’s Jon Heyman reporting that Mets owner Steve Cohen, president of baseball operations David Stearns, and manager Carlos Mendoza all in attendance to provide a “very detailed” presentation to the star slugger. Soto is set to next meet with the Yankees on Monday, and he has previously met with the Blue Jays and Red Sox in these early stages of his free agent adventure. It isn’t expected that Soto will be signing any time soon, as these initial meetings could be more about laying groundwork than putting any actual offers on the table.
- Orioles GM Mike Elias told reporters (including MASNsports.com’s Roch Kubatko) that Jorge Mateo is expected “to have a very full, if not a 162, something close to that season” in the aftermath of a UCL brace procedure last August. Kubatko’s impression was that the Orioles have Mateo in their plans for 2025, which lowers the possibility that the infielder could be cut loose in advance of the November 22 non-tender deadline. Mateo is projected for a $3.2MM arbitration salary, and fits as a non-tender candidate considering between his injury, subpar offense, and the crowded Baltimore infield picture. The O’s could be an interesting team to watch this week in advance of both the non-tender deadline and Tuesday’s deadline to set 40-man rosters in advance of the Rule 5 Draft, as Baltimore could potentially move an infielder or two off the roster in trades.
- With the Rays set to use George M. Steinbrenner Field as their home for the 2025 season, Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times looks at several details involved in the plan. A lot has naturally yet to be determined, though Topkin answers some questions ranging from team-centric issues like clubhouses and training amenities to fan-related details like how tickets and parking will be managed. One interesting wrinkle is the fact that the Rays are expected to host playoff games as per usual should the team make the postseason, which creates the awkward potential scenario of the Rays hosting the Yankees in the Yankees’ own Spring Training facility.
sasaki to the marlins, calling it now
Sounds fishy
Name that tuna.
I’m sure that where he’s angling to land.
@numberoneslayerfan
Sasaki has said numerous times he wants to be part of a massive rebuild that will take decades to complete, so Marlins or ChiSox seem like the best fit.
“sasaki to the marlins, calling it now”
I would love to see him go to a team like the Marlins, numberone, but why do you think that will happen?
I mean, its not gonna happen, but… they’d be tied for the largest international bonus pool, Roki won the WBC in Miami, Ichiro loved playing in Miami, they’re good at developing pitchers, and he’d be somewhat out of the media
Marlins have had something in place with Andrew Salas for over a year; probably their highest profile IFA in a long time
Sasaki should realistically have zero effect on the singing plans or trading plans of nearly every team in the league. This is not a super mega deal with postings and high-octane money involved. This should be a cherry on top for teams, not something you put your needs on hold for.
Any team that is willing to watch the chips get swept from the table waiting for him to possibly go to one of the other 29 teams is inept.
Teams with little realistic hope of signing Sasaki would be unwise to forego any other prospects on their international shopping list, but teams in play for him have more difficult decisions to make.
Considering his low price and six years of affordable control, who are these teams with little realistic hope? This is not a slam dunk for a big market team. If the Cubs can sign Japanese players, any one can.
The teams that haven’t been scouting him actively. The ones that have an existing relationship and a better handle on his thinking are probably better positioned to sign him.
Did u read the article ? It has the potential to impact every team struggling on the international market. Sasuki will command the entire signing bonus of a franchise, that’s why he will wait. So there will be 15-20 top international players unable to sign due to large market teams waiting on sasuki to pick a suitor. Great opportunity for teams like Pittsburgh and Colorado and many more who typically miss out on top international talent to grab a few of these guys who aren’t signed as promised with these large market teams. Very intriguing !
It will affect probably 2 international free agents because most international free agent bonuses are 3-4 million for the higher end guys. Only one team is blowing their wad on Sasaki, that means the rest will just sign who they intended on signing and have hand shake agreements with already.
Signing a free agent who declined a qualifying offer effects a teams international signing bonus. That does and will affect the free agent market.
I’m sure you know that most free agents do not sign until the bigger, top end free agents sign. So if Burnes and Soto do not sign until after teams make their bids on Sasaki, then the rest will wait as well.
“…Soto, Soto, Matos…”
I’ve often thought the writers here could use a proof-reader. Apparently they also need a headline proof-reader.
(They’ll probably correct it, and then this post will look nonsensical.)
The copy editors were the first to go up against the wall in the revolution.
And, as predicted…
Neither “preexisting” nor “proofreader” gets a hyphen. For that matter, somebody got “copy editor” as opposed to “copyediting” correct.
alproof, Good to know. I’ll remember that.
If the Yankees and the Rays face off in the playoffs, they’re playing all games in NY bc that’s 30K+ extra seats to be sold at a premium. Who are we kidding?
Japan should have its own division. Four professional teams. They have the interest and economy.
Seven game sets and three week long oversea trips for visitors while one of the four Japan teams heads stateside for seven three game sets.
Does that math make any logistical sense? Probably not. But I’m willing to go to great lengths to blow up this LAD team Japan trend!
Imagine how bad teams would preform on that trip and returning from that trip. Nothing like 12 hour time difference and travel. Have you ever done it?
Yes, I served in Korea. But no, I was not expected to hit a 97mph shortly after arrival.
My comment was in jest as LAD seems to have a monopoly on premium Japanese players these days.
I don’t know about that. The Cubs have a couple, the Mets have Senga. The Dodgers paid a billion dollars for the two last year. I think people are assuming Sasaki is a Dodger. I think he wants a market to himself. Wouldn’t be surprised if he surprised everyone and went to a mid market team.
How is it a team like the Blue Jays can show interest in Soto, but the Cubs and White Sox are too broke to consider free agents at the top of the market. I’m pretty sure the Cubs have more money than the Blue Jays and White Sox combined.
You’d be wrong. The ownership of Toronto is one of the richest, and they have an entire country to broadcast to, not just one market.
Look at the local TV deals and it all becomes clear.
I would be right. The Cubs are third in revenues ($506MM) for 2024, behind the Yankees and Dodgers. So my question stands about the Cubs (who have no elite players) not being involved with Soto.
There’s no direct correlation between how rich the majority owner is and how much money an MLB team spends. If it were, the Braves, Nats, Giants and Guards would be outspending everybody. So let’s put that (wrong) excuse to bed right now. There is no logical argument to be made when it comes to spending in the MLB, especially if you’re a Chicago sports viewer (3rd largest media in North America).
It is about what the baseball business brings in, not about how rich the owner is. They didn’t become rich by running their businesses at a loss.
Understand about the Cubbies though, they seem to be bringing a lot in. Maybe those Wrigley renovations put them more in the hole than anyone knows.
That’s what I’m saying.
A lot of people confuse how much a team makes with how much an owner makes.
Since you mentioned the Cubs, everyone talks about the Cubs making a ton of money because of X,Y and Z but X and Y is Tom Ricketts making money, separate of the Cubs and him allotting money based on Z, which is money directly tied to the team.
Well that’s odd. Cohen has been putting his own money in at about 100 mil a year. Big difference when an owner has 20 billion+ net worth and is really just a fan with unlimited resources to throw at it.
The Cubs self funded their billion dollar renovation so there is that to deal with.
Soto said winning is a priority for him which would rule out the White Sox.
The Jays are owned by the second richest owner, Steve Rogers, at 11.5 billion dollars, they play in the 4th largest city in North America and they own their entire media market.
Captain America is worth more than I thought. But why does he own a team in Canada?
He was demoted to Corporal Canada after “the snap”
These Soto talks are kinda making me sick. Some of these star players have a very easy decision to make. You either want money and a ring, or you want money and no ring. I mean, to me, it’s a very simple and easy decision. Perhaps they have a different perspective and think every team has talent and a chance to win the world series, but they’re living in a fantasy world. The Dodgers have won 2 rings in the last 5 years, and in the next 5 years, will win at least double that, if not 5. And in 10 years, at least quadruple that, if not 10. So, do you want a hall of fame career, with enough rings to fill both hands, and more money than God? If so, sign with the Dodgers. It blows my mind, as to how simple it all is. And the Mets put together a huge presentation for Soto. lol Mets. That’s cute.
I can see why you’re sad if you’re giving most of the next 10 World Series titles to the Dodgers. It’s unrealistic, but I’d be sad too if I thought that’s what was going to happen.
An M’s fan who’s gonna take a dig at the Mets, you guys had a great playoff run this year. If Cohen wants Soto bad enough he’ll get him.
So signing with Texas was just for the money? The rings were just an unexpected perk?
Mateo, you can’t steal 1st base!
If catchers can steal balls & strikes, and umpires ‘mistake’ balls & strikes…maybe Mateo can steal ball 4!
….nah, you right. Sigh
Sasaki to the Mariners Seattle they are basically the team that really began to bring japanese players over its the closest city to Tokyo in MLB and they have the best pitching development organization in baseball
So, based on this post, potentially, the Rays will host the Yankees in the ALDS and then go onto face the A’s in the ALCS, according to numerous MLBTR members. Should be an interesting season!
The Rays/Yankees prognostication is one of the most premature I’ve seen. Considering the strength of the division, I wouldn’t even bet the Rays make the playoffs.
@Jim Carter
Not a lot of goods teams in the ALE or the AL in general. Jays, Rays & Sox are all terrible teams that should be demoted to a lower league. O’s and Yankees are just lucky that they get extra games against trash teams like this.
Badler observes that multiple teams could end up putting their plans for the next signing period entirely on hold until the right-hander makes his decision.
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I’m not sure why any team would do that. If the RS sign Snell, and trade for Crochet, they are in great shape. But if Roki wanted to sign on for $6-7M in int’l money, I wouldn’t think twice. No one should.
$660 mil to soto
Lfg stevie