The Phillies are no strangers to big spending, as the last four seasons have seen the club post the four highest Opening Day payrolls in franchise history. It looks as though the payroll ceiling will continue to rise heading into 2025, as team chairman John Middleton told Scott Lauber of the Philadelphia Inquirer earlier this week.
“Given where we are in contract cycles and minor league people coming up, I expect the player payroll to be higher [than this year] rather than lower,” Middleton said. “I’d be surprised if it’s the same, and I’d be stunned, very stunned, if it’s lower. I don’t see it being lower.”
According to projections from Cot’s Baseball Contracts and RosterResource, the Phillies have roughly somewhere between $259MM-$270MM already committed to their 2025 payroll in terms of pure dollars. The luxury tax number is even higher, with Cot’s projecting an approximate tax number of $281.5MM, and RosterResource has a rough estimate of around $288.4MM.
In either case, the Phillies are already slightly or well beyond the third tax penalty tier of $281MM. While the Phillies have paid the tax in each of the the last three seasons, the third tier has been something of an unofficial internal limit for the Phils during the Middleton era, though he has said in the past that it is by no means a hard cap. Middleton reiterated as much to Lauber, saying that “for the right player, I have a high degree of confidence that [president of baseball ops Dave Dombrowski] and I would go over the third limit.”
As Middleton noted, a spending increase was already baked into the Phillies’ plans due to internal raises alone. Zack Wheeler’s extension kicks in this winter, so he’ll go from a $23.5MM salary in 2024 to $42MM in each of the next three seasons. Philadelphia also has a pretty large arbitration class, and might save only around $8.7MM if Austin Hays, Kolby Allard, and Garrett Stubbs are all non-tendered as expected.
Dombrowski could find some creative way to move some larger contracts (say, the money owed to Nick Castellanos and Taijuan Walker) off the books to give the Phils a little more breathing room on the payroll front, though such swaps are much easier said than done. What Middleton didn’t address was whether or not the Phillies would be willing to top the fourth and final spending tier of $301MM in order to add another big-ticket talent on top of the Phils’ pre-existing core.
An owner that doesn’t meddle with the baseball front office and is willing to spend money when the team is in win now mode. As a White Sox fan, I can appreciate having this kind of owner…
I interpret Middleton’s quotes as meaning the Phillies will go all-in on Juan Soto. That’s not wishful thinking as I am not a Phillies fan (I’m a Dodger fan). Their window is now, and they need to be willing to pay whatever it takes to land “the right player.”
I see
Burnes
Snell
O’Neil
Scott
I think they put Soto money elsewhere on the roster.
I concur. Phils should start at 655/13. Make a statement.
They ain’t outbidding the Mets/Yankees for Soto. That’s a pipe dream
Middleton’s cigars can outlast the pipes if he wants.
I bet they would , If the yankees & Mets offer more. I think he would take the phillies. I feel like the mets & yankees lack the leadership presence in the clubhouse. Like a true leader not just a captian.
The Phillies can outbid anyone, and it’s a fact they offered Yamamoto the same dollars as the Almighty dog ears,just as it’s a fact Juan enjoyed his plane trip back to Philly, while a Padre. That no pipe dream.
That’s a statement in CAPS.
Captain Dunsel, I absolutely love your handle. Most here won’t get it. I do!
Thank you for the Ultimate compliment.
That’s exactly what it sounds like to me, but that’s not the direction I would go. They still likely need a #5, a closer, and a setup guy. Add all four and Philly will be at about $350M.
By July the number 5 will be Painter.
My first thought too.
Realistically, Soto won’t move the needle. The Phillies lineup *should* be enough to make them a serious contender, but they all seem to go cold when it matters most.
“Soto won’t move the needle.”
I’ll gives you points for your unique take but subtract many more for being so utterly incorrect.
I still believe Castellanos and Walker for Kris Bryant and maybe a prospect makes sense. The Phils would pay more money over the long haul, but would pay $11 MM less over each of the next two seasons, I’d think they could use that to get a better pitcher than Walker. And reuniting Bryant with his old buddy Bryce Harper might reinvigorate him as well.
For the Rox, Walker could eat innings. He always pitched pretty well at Coors with Arizona, so maybe going back west could help him too. Castellanos would be a bit of a weird fit, but he could always be flipped again either during the off season or kept until the deadline hoping he hits well.
Bryant would do nothing to impact the Phillies. I doubt he’s the type of player Middleton was referring to.
I would take Bryant over Castellanos. At least Bryant MIGHT be good.
Bryant has hit like a backup catcher for the last 2 years. Castellanos has still been above average offensively. Nothing suggest Bryant has anything left.
Castellanos has been healthy but he can’t play defense at all. And since Schwarber is around he’s forced to play defense.
Bryant might be toast. But still least maybe he could be good. Castellanos I don’t think ever will be.
Not much impact. The “right” player is Soto. The Phillies need to make the best offer without flinching and reunite him with his Nats teammates Harper and Turner and his personal batting guru Kevin Long.
Since the Phillies are an older team, Soto would help make them younger. When Harper and Turner are 36, he’ll only be 30. They need a star outfielder. The likes of Bryant and Castellanos don’t give them that. They don’t need a player who “might” be good. They need the right player.
How many DHs do the Phillies need? They don’t need Soto.
The Phillies don’t need a generational hitter? Schwarber has one year, $20M left on his deal; Castellanos has two years, $40M. Those guys shouldn’t keep the Phillies from signing Soto to a long-term deal. They could probably trade one or the other. In the meantime, they will have Soto for a long time.
Every team could use Soto. Especially the ones that are trying to win.
I don’t think Soto is leaving the Yankees to play for the Phillies. That would be like leaving Top Chef to compete on Hells Kitchen. It’s a step down….
Nobody thought Bryce Harper would sign with the Phillies. Philadelphia is not a bad place at all. It’s a fun city. And the Phillies with Soto would be better than the Yankees with Soto.
Soto’s opening offer 655/13. Trade Walker for Montgomery.
I kinda like the Walker for Montgomery idea. Maybe Phillies add a little money but yeah makes sense.
Philly would be out of pocket for $32M if my calculations are correct, and even though I don’t like Walker or Casty, I’d still bet that they have a higher cumulative WAR than Bryant.
El Kabong
The Phillies don’t need a generational hitter?
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#5 in RS and #11 in RA. That suggests they need some pitching.
NY is the center of the universe. Philly is just the capital of Democracy, if any of that matters to anybody.
$655/13 matters to everybody.
Why would any team want Kris Bryant?
Blackstink is the smartest poster on mlbtr because he has the most irrational posts on mlbtr.
Is that a compliment?
Why wouldn’t PHI just pay the Castellanos and Walker contracts down to $11 mill/yr total and trade for fringe prospects? If Walker is any healthier going forward a replacement level bat and 5th starter are more helpful than $54 extra million for someone who hasn’t played more than 80 games since 2021.
Who are they trying to catch up to, the Vatican?
Worse yet……
The Mets.
Phillies could look to make a big trade but I don’t see that happening based on those comments and just looking at their prospects. It appears all of their prospects will have a place to play when they are ready st least the top 5 or so.
Sign Bader for center and get a closer like Yates or Sewald. That should improve the team from last year. They aren’t losing much. Maybe they need another starter but thats not a big priority imo.
Those moves wouldn’t improve the team. Go re-read Middleton’s comments in this article. And the ones a couple of months ago where he said he wants to bring a World Series championship to Philadelphia. Phillies fans would be rightfully livid if all they did were bring in someone like Bryant, Bade, Yates, or Sewald. They need to make a big move — THE big move.
You add Bader and Yates without losing anything at all. That definitely makes the team better.
Soto isn’t signing in Philly.
You want to sign a 38 year old closer?
Who else would you sign to close games?
Red Sox need a closer. Who would you sign?
I don’t see that happening based on those comments and just looking at their prospects.
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Yup. The big prize is Painter, and unless DD suspects his comeback is going worse than expected, I cannot see him trading Painter.
What prospects can they trade for Helsley?
Castellanos is the last player the Phils should try to trade in the name of creative finance management. He was one of the few players who looked like a pro on the field during the final months of the regular season and few days of the playoffs. He is a consistent hitter and a highly underrated defensive outfielder. His arm is one of the best outfield arms in baseball. The Phils lost Walker in 2023 when Thomson failed to use him in the playoffs. It’s been all downhill since. So, he’ll be moved before the season starts. If the Phils really want to save some money to put toward free agents, they should think about trading the $20 million a year Schwarber and $23 million a year Realmuto who will both be free agents after 2025. Schwarber can hit home runs as far as anyone but he doens’t hit them often enough to be given exclusive rights to the Phils’ DH spot. He is a perennial strikeout leader with a mediocre batting average and inability to play any defensive position. In 2023 when he played the outfield, he was rated the absolute worst defensive outfielder in baseball. His stats are misleading. He may have hit more leadoff homers than anyone else in baseball, but in games when he homers, most of the other Phils also hit very well. As the playoffs clearly showed, Schwarber cannot hit good pitching and is a poor hitter in clutch situations. Schwarber still has trade value, and the Phils could put their DH spot to much better use by making it a DH by committee. Realmuto’s best days are behind him, but he still has trade value. What’s more, the Cards are putting most of their team on the trade block. That includes their catcher Contreras and closer Helsley. With their available young players, the Phils might be able to swing a deal for both players. The Phils could also promote minor league catcher Marchan, who briefly played very well for the Phils last season, to share catching duties with Contreras. Another team with many players on the trade block is the White Sox. The Phils could also possibly trade for their starter Crochet and centerfielder Robert Jr. The Phils can save some big money by trading guys like Schwarber, Realmuto and Walker who are all replaceable and make optimal use of several of their young major league players and minor league prospects in trades that could actually improve the team. Castellanos should not be traded.
Castellano is consistently one of the worst MLB defenders (-8 OAA) and is bottom-third in arm value and strength. Trading Schwarber (3.5 bWAR, 120 wRCS+) instead of Castellanos (0.8 bWAR, 109 wRCS+) is a wild take.
Yankee, If you watched the Phils as much and as closely as I do and have done for many seasons, you’d realize Castellanos is an underrated player, offensively and defensively, regardless of any diagnostic stats. Trust me when I say that, when the game is on the line, you want Castellanos, rather than Schwarber, at the plate and in the field. Schwarber may be able to hit the ball farther than Castellanos but Castellanos hits the ball a lot more often, especially in clutch situations. As far as defense is concerned, there is no comparison between the two players. In 2023 when he was still getting playing time in left field, Schwarber was rated the absolute worst defensive outfielder in baseball. If you watched Castellanos more often, you’d appreciate his value to the Phillies.
Castellanos has an average bWAR of 0.8 with the Phillies. I wouldn’t worry too much about someone else trading for him.
That was interesting. Too many machinations to be plausible. IOW, not gonna happen. Nice to speculate though.
My never will happen but Id love to see it trade for (both ) teams
Trout (waives NTC goes back home) fpr Cast and T Walker
Monies exactly the same first 2 years 38 mill then Philly takes on the extra 4 yrs of Trout at end– No other players involved a straight 2 for 1 ….Idk who says yes, maybe nobody but It be cool to see
After reading your post, I wasn’t sure if I should call an eye doctor or a shrink. Let’s just say that I agree with your giving Marchan a chance. You watch the game differently from most folks.
Hoffman should and can be brought back. Adding Yates is fine in a deep pen. Helsley could be a fallback if prospects like Saltiban and Anthony can secure him.
No one wants Castellanos. Even his best personal friends wouldn’t describe his offense and lavishly as you do. Schwarber and Realmuto are going nowhere, for a host of reasons that most people and all GM’s understand. Middleton’s statement about being willing to spend money should be seen as an acknowledgement that the Phils don’t have much to trade in order to get to where they want to go.
flea, I do watch the game differently from most folks, probably because I’ve been doing it a lot longer than most folks. I have especially watched the Phillies from their days at Connie Mack Stadium. So, I have some insight into the organization, their history and fans, that most onlookers lack. I agree that Marchan is ready from prime time and Hoffman should be retained. You say, “No one wants Castellanos.” And you know this – how? Have you surveyed “every one” to arrive at your conclusion? After all, “no one” covers a lot of territory. I’ve watched Castellanos his entire career – and he’s a true player. With a few exceptions, I watched every Phillies game Castellanos has played. His defense is highly underrated and his bat is a clutch as anyone else on the Phils team, not named Harper. Conversely, Schwarber is a high-priced transmission with no clutch, and Realmuto a transmission with a clutch that’s about to wear out. You’re probably right that Schwarber and Realmuto are going nowhere this year. That says a lot because, if the Phils fail to trade both players while they still have some trade value and are in their free agency season and the team has so many deficiencies, the Phils will once again fail to win a world championship in 2025. The bottom line is that the Phils have too many stars who are actually dragging their team down by their inconsistency. It doesn’t show that easily because they’re in a limelight filled with distractions. Be it a Schwarbomb at the park’s concession stands or a Schwarber hoagie at Wawa, the guy gets much more publicity and has a much bigger following than someone like Castellanos who is just a hard-nosed, all-around ball player with no fluff and no fanfare. Schwarber and Realmuto may stay with the Phils yet another season, and either or both may jump ship and join other teams that will pay them more than the Phils in 2026 and beyond. This would be consistent with Phillies history, as are the team’s predictably disappointing outcomes. Live and learn, young flea. Live and learn.
…OTB… I agree w/ your take on Casty.
He is the punching bag on this team. And that is just his role I guess. When it’s all said and done it is “kinda” like Von Hayes.
Not comparing players stats, just what the fans gave them at the time of their playing days….
What I mean is that his worth won’t be known until long after he’s gone. He demands to play, puts up good numbers, has a virulent-esque sense of humour that should resonate w/ Philly and he’s a good clubhouse guy….
Appreciate the “grass-hopper” type quote…
Realmuto has no trade value. The Phillies got nothing back when they traded away Daulton and Ruiz, their other high priced washed up former star catchers
did I read that right??? wheeler goes from 23 to 42m a year? wow… talk about a pay increase.
Wheeler was grossly underpaid the last couple years.
Well not grossly underpaid per se. He out performed a contract which at the time “seemed” a risk.
Total Wheeler backer here btw
The Phils would be better served throwing the big money at Adames, then moving Turner to LF, DFA’ing Hayes and sliding Marsh into a CF platoon with Rojas.
Why do some people think moving Turner to the outfield, a position he hasn’t played in about 10 years, is such a great idea?? This isn’t little league – just throwing players wherever
Not many people are suggesting Soto to Philly, but he fits the exact player profile that they’ve been enamored with for years now. They’ve been in on the top guys for a while now and then this from Middleton. No doubt they at least kick the tires. At worst, they bring up the cost for rival Mets.