The Mets are issuing the $21.05MM qualifying offer to both Luis Severino and Sean Manaea, reports Jon Heyman of The New York Post (X links). There’s no surprise in Manaea’s case, though Severino was more of a borderline call. The pitchers will have until November 19 to determine whether to lock in that salary. That’ll give their representatives just over two weeks to gauge the market.
Manaea is coming off one of the better platform years of anyone in the rotation class. He turned in a 3.47 earned run average while striking out a quarter of opponents through a career-high 181 2/3 innings. The southpaw had an excellent second half that coincided with a dip in his arm angle and an increased use of his sinker. He’ll probably be limited to three-year offers as he enters his age-33 season, though those could come at a comparable annual value to the QO price. He shouldn’t give much consideration to accepting.
Severino could have a more interesting decision. The hard-throwing righty worked to a 3.91 ERA across 182 frames spanning 31 starts. It was a nice rebound from his terrible final season with the Yankees. Severino improved his ground-ball rate to 46% but didn’t find the kind of bat-missing ability that made him a high-end starter during his early days in the Bronx. He fanned 21.2% of batters faced while getting swinging strikes at a well below-average 9.4% clip.
The lack of whiffs could lead to trepidation from some teams. Severino has plus velocity and good control, though, and he proved capable of shouldering a full workload for the first time since 2018. With Manaea virtually certain to decline the QO, the Mets were willing to risk bringing Severino back on a decent one-year salary. They’re likely to find themselves in the top tier of luxury tax penalization next season. That’d entail paying a 110% tax, potentially putting them on the hook for more than $44MM.
If Severino declines the offer in search of a three- or four-year deal, the Mets would be in line for modest draft compensation. As luxury tax payors, New York receives the lowest form of compensation for losing qualified free agents. They’d get compensatory picks after the fourth round if Manaea and/or Severino sign elsewhere. The prospect value of those picks is minimal, but it’d tack on a few hundred thousand dollars to next year’s amateur signing bonus pool.
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Severino is a surprise, I’d definitely expect him to take it. Between him and Martinez, seems like teams are much more aggressive issuing QOs compared to last year, when only the “obvious rejecting” candidates got one.
they have always been with middle of the pack SP. You can find a big league 2b that will not humiliate you for a few million, but a SP that will throw 140 innings of 4.5 ERA ball is going to run you 12 million, so the gap between Kyle Gibson and Severino is about 10 million
If I’m Manea, I take the QO. He has never performed this well and even with his “new” side sling approach, it wouldn’t surprise me to see him regress. If he truly performs in 2025, then —even at his age—he’ll get plenty of offers in 2026..
I agree Manaea could very well regress. Regardless of what you or I think, someone somewhere will probably give him 2+ years. So regress or not, he’ll already have the guaranteed money. Given his erratic career, he’s gotta take the biggest offer he can get now when his value is the highest its ever been.
Makes sense. Even if they overpay Severino a bit that’s better than heading to free agency with multiple homes in the rotation.
The Mets also could try to negotiate a 2-3 year deal with him for more money but a lower AAV.
I expect a little regression on Manaea, but the QOs were certainly expected
I think both should take the $21 million and try again next year without the QO attached.
Good point. But it depends on having a good 2025 season.
Severino should take it. Sign Manaea to a 3 year $60 million deal.
Neither are worth 21 million even if it is for just 1 year.
What are they worth?
Less
Yeah, no. They’re worth what someone is willing to pay for them. They’re worth the exact amount they got.
weak
Blackpink: By definition, any free agent player is worth what the high bidder is willing to pay and no less.
You have no objective criteria for judging a player’s value.
No it’s a free market and teams can overpay and teams can get good deals.
You can make a case for Manaea. But there is no way on the planet Severino is worth 21 million.
The Mets made the QO, which means they disagree.
I would beg to differ on 4th round picks being minimal. Rickey Henderson, Jeff Bagwell, Yadier Molina, Paul Oneil, Ozzie Smith, Cliff Lee, Shane Bieber and on and on. MLB players and superstars come from every part of the draft. Who knows what a talented high school player turns into.
you just named what 5 or 6 people over what about 4 or 5 decades?
How long a list do you need? I can be here all day.
@Flyby,
Decades?
Some Examples:
Paul DeJong
Willie Callhoun
Jordan Montgomery
Corbin Burnes
Shane Beiber
Spencer Strider
Christian Walker
Rickey Henderson 1976
Jeff Bagwell 1989
Yadier Molina 2000
Paul Oneil 1981
Ozzie Smith 1977 / 1976
Cliff Lee 1997
Shane Bieber 2016
lets see 1970s … yup thats a decade
1980’s … also a decade should i keep going
so what maybe 3 a decade … thats 15 players over 50 years. so yes keep going. my guess is there maybe at most 3-4 4th rounders per decade that were all stars or truly notable. over the last 60 or 70 years so out of what roughly 300 picks a decade maybe 3 so 1%.
You forgot Paul O’NEILL.
I assume Alonso will get one too unless they plan to re-sign him immediately. I know there’s goodwill about not handicapping someone but it’d be foolish to take a chance on him signing somewhere else and getting nothing.
I don’t think Alonso will get anywhere near the money and years he’s expecting. Wouldn’t be surprised he if re-signs with the Mets.
Probably true, but I think he is getting the QO and will reject it.