Right-hander Luis Severino is “likely” to decline the Qualifying Offer extended to him by the Mets earlier this month, according to a report from Will Sammon of The Athletic. Sammon adds that Severino “loves” playing in New York but is now expected to attempt to land a multi-year deal in free agency this winter.
Severino, 30, is entering free agency for the second time this year. The right-hander entered the open market last winter coming of a disastrous 2023 season with the Yankees where he surrendered a 6.65 ERA in 89 1/3 innings of work and landed with the Mets on a one-year, $13MM deal. That deal went quite well, as he pitched to a league average 3.91 ERA (101 ERA+) with a 4.21 ERA in 182 innings of work. He struck out 21.2% of opponents while walking batters at just a 7.9% clip. Those are all solid but unspectacular numbers, but that mid-to-back of the rotation production can still earn a strong guarantee in free agency, as the likes of Jameson Taillon and Taijuan Walker have in recent years (albeit without the QO attached).
Given that, it’s perhaps not much of a surprise that Severino would look to beat the one-year, $21.05MM Qualifying Offer. MLBTR predicted a three-year, $51MM contract for Severino earlier this winter, after the Mets attached a QO to him. That guarantee is in line with what veteran right-hander Michael Wacha received from the Royals just before free agency opened, and Wacha was viewed as a similarly borderline candidate for a QO as Severino was. Of course, Severino wouldn’t necessarily have to reach that projection for declining the QO to be a worthwhile decision for him. Right-hander Nathan Eovaldi landed a two-year, $34MM guarantee with the Rangers last winter that afforded him the opportunity to opt out following the 2024 season, and even a similar deal would net Severino a larger overall guarantee than the QO while still affording him the flexibility to return to free agency next winter.
With Severino poised to decline the QO, the Mets will now need to either re-sign him in free agency or replace him in their rotation. The club’s rotation also stands to lose southpaws Sean Manaea (who received a QO as well but has long been expected to decline it) and Jose Quintana, leaving them with only Kodai Senga and David Peterson penciled into their 2025 rotation. It’s certainly possible that the club could look to reunite with either Severino or one of the other exiting free agent starters, although the Mets have plenty of financial flexibility and are coming off a surprise trip to the NLCS. That could lead them to aim higher in free agency this winter, with top free agent starters such as Corbin Burnes, Blake Snell, and Max Fried all expected to be available. It’s even possible that they turn to the trade market in their search for rotation upgrades, as they’ve been linked to White Sox southpaw Garrett Crochet already this winter.
Should Severino ultimately land elsewhere in free agency, him declining the QO means that the Mets would receive a compensatory draft pick after the fourth round of the 2025 draft as a club that paid the luxury tax in 2024. Meanwhile, interested teams would have to surrender a combination of draft picks and international bonus pool dollars commensurate with their status relative to the luxury tax and revenue sharing as laid out by MLBTR’s Mark Polishuk last month. Teams that received revenue sharing in 2024 would surrender just their third-round pick in the 2025 draft to sign Severino, while teams that paid the Competitive Balance Tax this year would surrender their second- and fifth-round picks in addition to $1MM in international bonus pool space.
Severino is not on the level of Wacha or Eovaldi. Similar to Pivetta I guess if he can get a 3 year 42 million deal or something like that he might be better off. But I think he’s a big risk unlike Pivetta and not sure a team would even go that high to get him.
Why would a team risk a multi year deal on a pitcher with erratic results who won’t bet on himself by being overpaid for a year before returning to the market?
Severino is betting on himself. He’s betting $20 million that he can get a multi-year deal.
The man was league average after being horrible. Why would he get more than 3/36? Take the overpay this year and get 3/36 next year if you believe you can perform.
@CardsFan57
All fine and dandy for an opinion. But that would be Severino NOT betting on himself.
@ CardsFan57 Your speaking to a personal bias and not the realities of the recent pitching market. Consistently average pitchers are getting $20 mil a year these days,. Pitchers coming off of bad years are getting $13-$14 Mil. So an inconsistent one coming off of a good year can get $15M plus for more than a year. Plus, he made $13M last year he’s going to expect a raise off of that. And someone will give it to him. Maybe he gets only 2/$30 or $32. But he’s not settling for $12 a year and no one would bother to insult him with that.
He blows out his arm. He gets zilch.
Kyle Gibson wants to live in your world. He especially wants to live in your world with so many teams planning to cut payroll. Let’s see how my personal bias plays out. I’m not even sure what that means but I’m willing to watch it play out.
He already bet on himself by taking a one-year $13M deal with the Mets. Severino won and he’s going to paid for it.
Even two years is still “multi-year”, and someone will pony up for at least that much. Pitching is that scarce that even an erratic history is better than one with no history of success.
I think Sev made a mistake with this move.
How is it a mistake? He’s certainly earned a raise over the $13 mil he made in ’24, and he’s earned a 2-yeat deal. Someone somewhere will give him at least 2 years, $30+ million. And while that is a lower AAV, it is still more dollars and security than he had this past season, and more than he would have if he took the QO.
That I think is the problem. Mets way overpaid him.
Based on what criteria?
1 yr., $13 mill. for 182 innings of average starting pitching was a good deal for the Mets.
Who is giving up a QO pick to sign a #3 starter on a 2 year deal? That’s what hurts Severino. His track record doesn’t warrant a 4 year deal, and the QO being attached to him means teams are unlikely to be interested in a short term deal.
That was probably part of the Mets’ though process in offering him the QO in the first place. That said, Its only a team’s second-highest pick. After the 30 first round picks, and the compensation round, a late 2nd rounder is something like a 65th or 70th pick overall. For a team like the Dodgers or Phillies that just needs to fill in the M to BOTR depth, this is doable.
He will probably get 3-54
No one is giving an injury prone pitcher almost 20 million a season for multiple seasons lol.
@ DarrenDreifortsContract You may be right. But someone will give him multi years at $15-$17. And that is still a win for him over accepting the QO.
Ummm remember Darren Dreiffort
Red sock
Opportunity to overpay ? Angels perked up !
Nah. He’s too good. Doesn’t fit the anonymous journeyman profile preferred by Minasian. Signing Severino would run counter to their plan to field the all-time least watchable team in 2025.
This could come back to bite him if he doesn’t sign early, but with his history of lat tears and diminishing velocity, I can understand going for a 3 year deal.
Hard to argue strongly in either direction, but I think it’s the smart move to decline. But if he ends up under 100 IP again or has his ERA creep towards 5, he’d be in the 1 year for 8 mil range next off-season.
Gone baby gone love is gone
Aside: are notifications broken for anyone else? Haven’t gotten any for the past day.
Notifications do seem to be broken
Lol I thought they were messing with me because I told some guy off. Glad to hear it’s not just me.
@Informed: Yep. I emailed them this afternoon about it but haven’t gotten a response back yet.
What players are thinking is 3/40 is better than 1/21. He blows out his arm. He still gets 40 Million instead of 21.
Still has an opportunity to return. He knows he’s not get 20 mil per year over multiple years, but obviously wants the job security for more than one. My guess is the Mets will give him 2 years, 36 million range, with an option.
The Mets need starting pitching. My guess is they let Severino go out and test the market and if he can’t get a multi year deal Stearns signs him to a one year deal at roughly what he gave up in a QO.
No other team is signing Severino to a 1 or 2 year deal and giving up a QO. So either someone shells out 3-4 years for him or he stays a Met.
BClev is exactly right.
Guys like Severino and Pivetta are boxing themselves into a corner.
From the player’s perspective, they now need at LEAST the $20 mil they bypassed, which means a multi year offer. However from a team’s perspective, both players’ track record make them questionable investments to justify the draft pick compensation on a two year $30 mil deal or a contract of $40mil over three years. Moreover, for those posters who just expect their most recent team to circle back and sign them, those teams have an added incentive NOT to sign the player: they’ll net themselves the draft pick compensation if they sign elsewhere, for a player hardly guaranteed to even duplicate his 2024 season.
He will either resign with the Mets for 2/30 or similar or be unsigned until Spring Training when someone gets desperate after an injury. Nobody else giving him a multiyear deal and losing a pick. I really think him rejecting the QO is strictly a negotiation tactic with the Mets FO to give him a 2 year deal, I doubt he has significant interest from elsewhere under these circumstances.
My guess is three years $49 million back to the Mets, no opt-outs
Thank god hes declining it. He was a fourth starter level and I doubt that he is ever going to replicate this season ever again. Hes always hurt as shown with his time with the Yankees. This is a big win for the Mets