November 19: Severino is indeed declining the QO, tweets Tim Healey of Newsday.
November 16: Right-hander Luis Severino is “likely” to decline the Qualifying Offer extended to him by the Mets earlier this month, according to a report from Will Sammon of The Athletic. Sammon adds that Severino “loves” playing in New York but is now expected to attempt to land a multi-year deal in free agency this winter.
Severino, 30, is entering free agency for the second time this year. The right-hander entered the open market last winter coming of a disastrous 2023 season with the Yankees where he surrendered a 6.65 ERA in 89 1/3 innings of work and landed with the Mets on a one-year, $13MM deal. That deal went quite well, as he pitched to a league average 3.91 ERA (101 ERA+) with a 4.21 ERA in 182 innings of work. He struck out 21.2% of opponents while walking batters at just a 7.9% clip. Those are all solid but unspectacular numbers, but that mid-to-back of the rotation production can still earn a strong guarantee in free agency, as the likes of Jameson Taillon and Taijuan Walker have in recent years (albeit without the QO attached).
Given that, it’s perhaps not much of a surprise that Severino would look to beat the one-year, $21.05MM Qualifying Offer. MLBTR predicted a three-year, $51MM contract for Severino earlier this winter, after the Mets attached a QO to him. That guarantee is in line with what veteran right-hander Michael Wacha received from the Royals just before free agency opened, and Wacha was viewed as a similarly borderline candidate for a QO as Severino was. Of course, Severino wouldn’t necessarily have to reach that projection for declining the QO to be a worthwhile decision for him. Right-hander Nathan Eovaldi landed a two-year, $34MM guarantee with the Rangers prior to the 2023 season that afforded him a vesting player option for 2025, and even a similar deal would net Severino a larger overall guarantee than the QO while still affording him the flexibility to return to free agency in short order.
With Severino poised to decline the QO, the Mets will now need to either re-sign him in free agency or replace him in their rotation. The club’s rotation also stands to lose southpaws Sean Manaea (who received a QO as well but has long been expected to decline it) and Jose Quintana, leaving them with only Kodai Senga and David Peterson penciled into their 2025 rotation. It’s certainly possible that the club could look to reunite with either Severino or one of the other exiting free agent starters, although the Mets have plenty of financial flexibility and are coming off a surprise trip to the NLCS. That could lead them to aim higher in free agency this winter, with top free agent starters such as Corbin Burnes, Blake Snell, and Max Fried all expected to be available. It’s even possible that they turn to the trade market in their search for rotation upgrades, as they’ve been linked to White Sox southpaw Garrett Crochet already this winter.
Should Severino ultimately land elsewhere in free agency, him declining the QO means that the Mets would receive a compensatory draft pick after the fourth round of the 2025 draft as a club that paid the luxury tax in 2024. Meanwhile, interested teams would have to surrender a combination of draft picks and international bonus pool dollars commensurate with their status relative to the luxury tax and revenue sharing as laid out by MLBTR’s Mark Polishuk last month. Teams that received revenue sharing in 2024 would surrender just their third-round pick in the 2025 draft to sign Severino, while teams that paid the Competitive Balance Tax this year would surrender their second- and fifth-round picks in addition to $1MM in international bonus pool space.
Severino is not on the level of Wacha or Eovaldi. Similar to Pivetta I guess if he can get a 3 year 42 million deal or something like that he might be better off. But I think he’s a big risk unlike Pivetta and not sure a team would even go that high to get him.
Blackpink, I totally agree. I’m thinking he may “use” the declining of the QO to negotiate a multi-year deal with the Mets.
I could see that – something “team friendly” but still valuable to Severino.
Buyer beware on Severino, he has some of the worst mechanics I’ve ever seen, injuries likely to come, and I imagine that’s why he passed up the one year deal at a high AAV, even Severino knows that the likelihood of him hitting the IL in 2025 is high. Mets lucked out, should take the draft pick compensation and look elsewhere.
They would only receive a draft pick if he signs elsewhere.
Why would a team risk a multi year deal on a pitcher with erratic results who won’t bet on himself by being overpaid for a year before returning to the market?
Severino is betting on himself. He’s betting $20 million that he can get a multi-year deal.
The man was league average after being horrible. Why would he get more than 3/36? Take the overpay this year and get 3/36 next year if you believe you can perform.
@CardsFan57
All fine and dandy for an opinion. But that would be Severino NOT betting on himself.
@ CardsFan57 Your speaking to a personal bias and not the realities of the recent pitching market. Consistently average pitchers are getting $20 mil a year these days,. Pitchers coming off of bad years are getting $13-$14 Mil. So an inconsistent one coming off of a good year can get $15M plus for more than a year. Plus, he made $13M last year he’s going to expect a raise off of that. And someone will give it to him. Maybe he gets only 2/$30 or $32. But he’s not settling for $12 a year and no one would bother to insult him with that.
He blows out his arm. He gets zilch.
Kyle Gibson wants to live in your world. He especially wants to live in your world with so many teams planning to cut payroll. Let’s see how my personal bias plays out. I’m not even sure what that means but I’m willing to watch it play out.
Cards – Why would you think you know what teams have offered him?
Why would you think he wouldn’t know?
Why do you still ignore the possibility of an opt out after 1 or 2 years?
You have no concept of the pitching market. The Sox last year gave $39M to a guy who had a 5 ERA each of the two prior seasons … doesn’t that tell you anything?
CardsFan57 — I assume your comment reflects the reality that Kyle Gibson has never been anything but a poor #5 pitcher, something—apparently—that John Mozeliak didn’t know.
He’s been just as good as Severino the last few years
Kyle Gibson is the smartest man on the planet. He gets paid to eat innings. 6 innings per start, 3 runs per start. 30-33 starts a year. 400k per start. He doesn’t overpitch and blow out his arm. He is gonna do this 5-7 more years. COLLECT ANOTHER 60M dollars. His stats aren’t great, but they aren’t bad. He was a steady influence on the 2023 O’s.
Two years 25M is about right for Severino.
He already bet on himself by taking a one-year $13M deal with the Mets. Severino won and he’s going to paid for it.
Even two years is still “multi-year”, and someone will pony up for at least that much. Pitching is that scarce that even an erratic history is better than one with no history of success.
Cards – That’s the exact same nonsensical lack of logic you used when you insisted Pivetta would/should accept the QO.
They both have been fielding offers obviously. They both know the market. They also both know the value of multi-year security.
And obviously both the Sox and Mets correctly predicted they would get compensation by offering the QO.
Erratic results? He’s had 1 bad season coming off of his surgery. I wouldn’t call that erratic. That’s part of the process of returning from TJ surgery.
I think Sev made a mistake with this move.
How is it a mistake? He’s certainly earned a raise over the $13 mil he made in ’24, and he’s earned a 2-yeat deal. Someone somewhere will give him at least 2 years, $30+ million. And while that is a lower AAV, it is still more dollars and security than he had this past season, and more than he would have if he took the QO.
That I think is the problem. Mets way overpaid him.
Based on what criteria?
1 yr., $13 mill. for 182 innings of average starting pitching was a good deal for the Mets.
Blue – Pretty sure he has no criteria. Doubtful he took any time to do any comps. He obviously didn’t look at Gio’s contract.
The mets underpaid. Now this pitcher will be overpaid by a pretender.
I am talking about when they signed him. He made 40 starts from 2019-2023. Coming off a really bad season. I am sorry you need back to back quality seasons to earn a multi year contract imo.
Nosferatu: That’s your opinion, but your opinion doesn’t set the market, and the market objectively determines what earns a multiyear contract.
Nos – It’s important to dive deeper into the player, as every situation is different.
The Braves gave Sale a multi-year contract despite him not having a good season for 5 years!
Who is giving up a QO pick to sign a #3 starter on a 2 year deal? That’s what hurts Severino. His track record doesn’t warrant a 4 year deal, and the QO being attached to him means teams are unlikely to be interested in a short term deal.
That was probably part of the Mets’ though process in offering him the QO in the first place. That said, Its only a team’s second-highest pick. After the 30 first round picks, and the compensation round, a late 2nd rounder is something like a 65th or 70th pick overall. For a team like the Dodgers or Phillies that just needs to fill in the M to BOTR depth, this is doable.
Cleve – Track record? Seriously?
So you obviously didn’t look at his numbers from 2017 thru 2019 until the injury.
A team that has already lost picks for signing a QO-rejecting free agent can sign guys like Severino and Pivetta and lose lower value lower round picks. The penalty gets less as you sign more QO-rejecting free agents.
Completely different version of Severino. He was a primarily fb/SL pitcher with a high fastball usage.
He’s lost some velo and he’s now throwing 5 pitches with much less reliance on the heater. You’re not getting the 2017-2019 version again. They have the same name on the back of the jersey but he’s much different.
BCleveland3381 —
Yes but—as other posters have commented—MLB contracts (especially for half-decent pitchers) are absurd. Severino will get a multi-year and therefore will create more than the QO could offer. I wouldn’t be surprised if the Mets make that offer.
The team that signs him only loses draft stock if the contract is in excess of 50M.
geofft: Not necessarily. MLB has had many good and great players who were drafted after the top 65-70 picks.
@ Blue Baron. That is certainly true. You just never know with any prospect. But the odds are much lower, and they usually take longer to develop.
I was responding to a question, and I’m just saying that teams, especially deep teams that are contending now, could be willing to give up a 65th or 70th pick for a MOTR pitcher who can help them win now.
geofft, I think you are right about that. This site has him signing for 3/51.
I don’t think he gets near that, personally.
He’s publicly stated the pitching lab , physical trainers , and dietitian are the reasons for his success. If he goes to a smaller market team that doesn’t have those facilities the results won’t be as good. He blamed the Yankees org for not being as elaborate as the Mets. He never saw a dietitian until he was in Flushing.
Smaller markets do not necessarily lack those facilities. In fact, some of them have been using those things as resources before the big markets jumped on board. Stearns himself used pitching labs for years in Mil and brought over some of those people from the Brewers.
bjhaas1977: Based on what information?
Newsflash: Severino and his agent have more market data and information than you do.
Where the hell does MLBTR recruit these people from? What a bunch of maroons! Ahahahaha!
He will probably get 3-54
No one is giving an injury prone pitcher almost 20 million a season for multiple seasons lol.
@ DarrenDreifortsContract You may be right. But someone will give him multi years at $15-$17. And that is still a win for him over accepting the QO.
Ummm remember Darren Dreiffort
Rodon and the NYY disagree with you.
Rodon has flawless pitching mechanics, uses his entire lower body in his motion, completely connected. Watch Severino throw the ball, he heaves it from his shoulder, gets a nice push from his drive leg, but doesn’t stay connected or follow through well, all upper body, he is suited for the bullpen. Great stuff though, a two year deal could be viable.
Jacob Degrom says hi
Let’s not compare Severino to Degrom though. Two different stratospheres when healthy.
DarrenDreifortsContract: Unless, of course, they do.
Red sock
Opportunity to overpay ? Angels perked up !
Nah. He’s too good. Doesn’t fit the anonymous journeyman profile preferred by Minasian. Signing Severino would run counter to their plan to field the all-time least watchable team in 2025.
But it would cost us a needed draft pick to sign an oft injured guy.
That’s the true Angels way.
This could come back to bite him if he doesn’t sign early, but with his history of lat tears and diminishing velocity, I can understand going for a 3 year deal.
Hard to argue strongly in either direction, but I think it’s the smart move to decline. But if he ends up under 100 IP again or has his ERA creep towards 5, he’d be in the 1 year for 8 mil range next off-season.
Gone baby gone love is gone
Where she is now I can only guess.
Have me a woman that is unkind
Smoked all my stuff and drank all my wine
Made up my mind to get a new start
Goin to California w/ an ache in my heart
Aside: are notifications broken for anyone else? Haven’t gotten any for the past day.
Notifications do seem to be broken
Lol I thought they were messing with me because I told some guy off. Glad to hear it’s not just me.
@Informed: Yep. I emailed them this afternoon about it but haven’t gotten a response back yet.
Nash – Might be a subscriber-only perk now.
$3 per month
@Fever—-I hope not
It is broken for subscribers too.
Flan – The Like notifications are not a big deal, but Reply notifications drive quite a bit of traffic.
I agree
It’s working this morning Fever.
Jeff – Thank you!
What players are thinking is 3/40 is better than 1/21. He blows out his arm. He still gets 40 Million instead of 21.
Still has an opportunity to return. He knows he’s not get 20 mil per year over multiple years, but obviously wants the job security for more than one. My guess is the Mets will give him 2 years, 36 million range, with an option.
They better not go that high. 2/30 max
The Mets need starting pitching. My guess is they let Severino go out and test the market and if he can’t get a multi year deal Stearns signs him to a one year deal at roughly what he gave up in a QO.
No other team is signing Severino to a 1 or 2 year deal and giving up a QO. So either someone shells out 3-4 years for him or he stays a Met.
BClev is exactly right.
Guys like Severino and Pivetta are boxing themselves into a corner.
From the player’s perspective, they now need at LEAST the $20 mil they bypassed, which means a multi year offer. However from a team’s perspective, both players’ track record make them questionable investments to justify the draft pick compensation on a two year $30 mil deal or a contract of $40mil over three years. Moreover, for those posters who just expect their most recent team to circle back and sign them, those teams have an added incentive NOT to sign the player: they’ll net themselves the draft pick compensation if they sign elsewhere, for a player hardly guaranteed to even duplicate his 2024 season.
Dev – And you are totally oblivious to the fact they’ve been fielding offers because?
Hint: If they haven’t been receiving better multi-year offers, they wouldn’t decline the QO.
He will either resign with the Mets for 2/30 or similar or be unsigned until Spring Training when someone gets desperate after an injury. Nobody else giving him a multiyear deal and losing a pick. I really think him rejecting the QO is strictly a negotiation tactic with the Mets FO to give him a 2 year deal, I doubt he has significant interest from elsewhere under these circumstances.
30 teams need starting pitching and 30 teams need innings.
2/30 is very light for Sevy. He’s going to get way more than that.
I actually don’t see that. 2/30 feels right, and may even be a little higher than I’d expect. His underlying numbers were just okay, and he’s not a swing and miss guy anymore. Plus the injury history is there. We’ll see
2/$30 is very low for an pitcher coming off of a solid year. Thats probably the floor of his range right now. Closer to 2/35 seems right. That might come in the form of 2/30 or even 2/28, plus a 3rd year club option with a $4 to $6 million buyout attached. But the money will exceed $30M, IMO.
Thats not necessarily what I think he’s worth. Its just what the market seems to be paying for SPs these past few years.
I could see it playing out that way
My guess is three years $49 million back to the Mets, no opt-outs
Thank god hes declining it. He was a fourth starter level and I doubt that he is ever going to replicate this season ever again. Hes always hurt as shown with his time with the Yankees. This is a big win for the Mets
Can you generate any thoughts without overly negative hyperbole?
Make that 3.91 ERA, 4.21 FIP
If he accepts the QO the Mets will be paying him $34M for 2 years. So why shouldn’t he try to leverage that $17M per year into a longer contract?
Soto on Red Sox, maybe
Soto on dodgers, so many stars already
Soto in Toronto, maybe
Who cares anyway
Who cares about silly baseball
How can you trust a sport after watching the fifth inning of the give away World Series to the dodgers
Hard to beat the fix
You might have divine intervention, but it’s almost impossible to beat a 7 game fix
Players are actors
Would you trust an actor
Would you trust a politician
If you knew who the minister was sleeping with, you wouldn’t go back!!
Believe half of what you see and nothing you hear
Severino believes he can get a total amount of guaranteed money beyond the 21M QO offer. Probably a contract of 2 or 3 years.(I doubt a team offers him 4 years) maybe a small option for an additional year (Possibly with incentives, a partial no trade clause, maybe a signing bonus etc.)
I think he will be successful
3/45 should be an easy get for him. Being over 30 now, with major injuries in his recent past, if getting more than $21 mill guaranteed is his aim then he made the right decision.
Even with a rebound season, he was still only slightly above league average, is a fraction of what he was at his peak with the Yankees years prior, and has a history of injuries. Couple that with a compensation pick, and many teams will hesitate. I wouldn’t give him much more than a 3/33. He should take the $20MM+, remove the comp pick, and go for a multi-year deal post 2025. Maybe he doesn’t think he can stay healthy?
I don’t think he gets 3 years straight up. 2 or maybe 2 plus a club option seems more likely to me unless some team is in love with him.
1) Slightly above average pitchers make 18 to 24 million these past few years. I’m not saying he gets that high. He should get less based on the injury factor and previous down years,. But he certainly won’t be down at $11M.
2) How can you expect him to take a lower AAV now, coming off of a “slightly above average” year, than he did a year ago when he was basically on the scrap heap???
2/33 seems more likely.
.
Be interesting to see how this plays out.
To get to $51 million over 3 years as MLBTR predicts, he’d need to basically land a 2 year $30 million deal after 2025 has he taken the QO.
That’s not that difficult to do these days, but with his injury history I can see him preferring more security.
I can also see many clubs losing interest in him.
Is there a date that these QO’s need to decided? Surely teams, and players alike, need to know where they stand with winter meetings are just around the corner.
November 19.
Surprised he didn’t take it and run.
He is not getting close to that elsewhere, and putting up another good season couldn’t do anything but help him. If not, he has 21 million.
Shoot, and I thought the Mets were nuts for offering him a QO.
Mets are long in the tooth, they should be all in acquiring starters this off season, and that should have them resigning Pete Alonso and forgetting about Juan Soto.
Manaea declined his player option and he is looking for a long term deal probably similar to Jameson Taillon, 4 years / 75M, I’d sign him. I’d also be looking at signing Frankie Montas to a similar deal and would let Severino walk, unless he wanted to sign a two year deal. I’d also be all in on Garrett Crochet, Mets have the prospects to get that trade. Ronny Mauricio, Carson Benge and Eli Serrano III are the players Id like back as a White Sox fan, and I think that’s a good trade for the Mets. We’ll throw in Luis Robert for Blade Tidwell straight up. That’s a blockbuster trade that is good for both teams.
Mets would have a rotation of Crochet, Sengai, Manaea, Montas and McGill, move Peterson to the bullpen, move Blackburn to the bullpen too. Two decent swingman and Sproat to fill in any injuries, added a proven center fielder on a decent contract. Avoided overpaying for Juan Soto. Best case scenario for the Mets in my opinion.
There’s no reason the Mets couldn’t do that and still go after Soto (instead of re-signing Alonso). While Steve Cohen has said he cannot keep spending like he has indefinitely, as that is not sustainable, he also (and more recently) said he does not feel that he has to get under the CBT this year. Keep in mind that the Mets are losing their DH. And while JDM plummeted from August on, he was very hot and triggered/spearheaded their offensive surge in June and July, and they added Winker to pick Martinez’ late season slack.
I wouldn’t give him more than two years with 12 million AAV. He needs another year to prove he’s not going to break down again.
And you may be right about what he is worth. But you’re not in line with the market reality. He’s not going to take a lower AAV than he had last year. And the idea is so far from reality that no team will even bother offering him such a low number.
That like accepting a $21M Q.O. and then signing a 1/$3M extension for ’26. The Mets would’ve gladly gave him that.
Don’t think this changes much. I’d guess he resigns with the Mets for either 1/20 or 2/32.
It means he won’t be signing a 1/21 contract.
If all he wants is a 1/20, then he should have taken the 1/21 with the QO!
I think he and the Mets probably have a test the waters but if all else fails safety net in the neighborhood of the QO for Sevy. The draft pick, lat issues and diminishing velocity make a multi year pact far from a sure thing.
The risk there for Severino is if the Mets miss out on Soto and sign multiple of the top tier of SP, that sort of soft agreement might fall through.
You’re underestimating the demand for Sevy. Free agency began on Nov. 4. Sevy has had two weeks to listen to early offers. The Mets didn’t simply offer him a take it or leave it Q.O. They’ve spoken with him about extensions just like other teams have had with their respective Q.O. free agents. There’s no cat-and-mouse game here between the Mets and Sevy.
We’ll see. Again, I mentioned friendlier terms with the NYM than cat and mouse games. I think the reality is Stearns knows there are limited teams willing to spend on Sevy, but they respect him enough to offer the QO. Could be a win-win.for club and players. Go get that 3 year lower AAV offer that might be out there, otherwise comeback to Queens and we’ll compensate you for 1 or 2 years with our admittedly inflated pockets.
Last season was his first healthy effort in five years. 200 IP in 5 seasons is James Paxton, yikes territory. The ERA estimators had him at slightly above 4 with a noted drop on velocity. Odds are he throws under 100 IP and/or his outcomes are worse than 2024.
I also remember fondly of his 2010’s but I don’t think he’ll be paid more than a risky no. 4.
More greedy players.
Taking the $21MM and entering free agency next year would like be the most profitable move, but with his injury history, I can understand trying to get more guaranteed money now.
Hopefully the Mets let him walk because he won’t be getting any better.
So either he signs a multi year contract soon with the Mets or signs late with a desperate team…?
Not sure where the money lands 15 AAV is my guess but if I’m a front office about to lose a pick to sign this guy I’d for sure want more than one year for that pick.