Red Sox brass have been signaling their intent to have an aggressive offseason, with president and CEO Sam Kennedy doubling down this week, per Michael Silverman of the Boston Globe. As they look to navigate the next few months, they apparently don’t view the competitive balance tax as a red line. “Even if it takes us over the CBT,” said Kennedy at the owners meetings, “our priority is 90 to 95 wins, and winning the American League East, and winning the division for multiple years.”
Those comments are in line with some that Kennedy made last month, when he also referenced the 90-95 win window as well as targeting a division title. It seems the club is planning to reverse course after several years of playing things a bit more modestly.
Looking at payroll data from Cot’s Baseball Contracts, the Sox were one of the top six spenders in each year from 2000 to 2020, a stretch in which they won four titles. But they have dropped themselves down to middle of the pack lately, including being 12th in each of the past two seasons. Perhaps not coincidentally, the results have dropped off, with the Sox finishing last in the American League east in three of the past five years.
Red Sox fans might roll their eyes after chairman Tom Werner’s “full throttle” comments last year didn’t lead to much, but that arguably makes it more notable that the Sox have been taking every opportunity to raise expectations again, as letting the fans down two years in a row would obviously be poor public relations strategy.
Chief baseball officer Craig Breslow spoke of looking to “raise the ceiling” in the rotation earlier this month. As mentioned, this is the second time that Kennedy has been forthright in stating that the club is planning to take a shot at the division, this time indicating that they might even get into tax payor status as they do so. They have already been connected to big-name free agents like Juan Soto, Blake Snell, Willy Adames, Max Fried and others.
“Is that possible? If that’s what it takes, yeah, absolutely,” Kennedy said of adding a mega deal to the club’s ledger. “We are investing more than we did last year. We intend to invest going forward. There is an extreme urgency internally to be competing for the American League East Championship and to set ourselves up for a deep postseason run in 2025 without question. The goal is to win 90 plus games to not be worrying about a wild card spot.”
Assuming the club is indeed willing to cross the tax line, that gives them a lot of spending power this winter. RosterResource currently calculates the club’s CBT number at $171MM for 2025. The lowest threshold of the tax will $241MM next year, meaning the Sox could give out contracts with about $70MM in terms of average annual value before getting to the line.
That might not even be the cap of their spending ability if they are willing to go beyond the base threshold. The Sox haven’t paid the tax since 2022, so they would be a “first-time” payor in 2025. That means they would be looking at a base tax rate of just 20%, with higher rates for going beyond the three further thresholds, each one being $20MM higher than the one before.
Soto is expected to land a historic deal, with many predictions suggesting he could get something in the window of $45-50MM annually. Theoretically, it’s possible for the Sox to sign Soto and still have money for other moves, if they are willing to go over the line. Or even without signing Soto, they could sign multiple players from the next tier of free agency.
Of course, saying that you’re willing to pay the tax and then actually doing it are two different things. It’s still entirely possible that the Sox are aggressive in ways that push the payroll towars the tax line without going over. That could mean less activity in free agency while being more active on the trade market, or perhaps not doing much in either sphere.
However it plays out, that gives the club a lot of possible options in terms of upgrading a team that went 81-81 in 2024. They have some strong core players like Rafael Devers, Jarren Duran, Tanner Houck and others. They have a lauded group of prospects which includes the “Big Four” of Kristian Campbell, Marcelo Mayer, Kyle Teel and Roman Anthony, who are all on the cusp of the majors. Those players could perhaps be used as part of a mega deal for someone like Garrett Crochet, or they could be kept as the Sox address their roster with free agents instead. “Everything and anything’s on the table for us,” Kennedy said. “Free agency, trades, promotions from the minor leagues.”
Well they got the talk the talk down…
You can almost see his nose growing.
Raise the ceiling!
John Stanton has entered the chat.
In all seriousness IF fsg decides to flex financially there isnt a reasonable contract they cant match..i say reasonable because i still doubt they would get in a bidding war with someone like steve cohen who ive read will try and outbid others by 50 million…thats fine for a fan but hard to justify to a board of directors and shareholders because its not good business and a business is how the red sox are now being run..but aside from that..no reason they cant be in on anyone
“…thats fine for a fan but hard to justify to a board of directors and shareholders because its not good business and a business is how the red sox are now being run”
This line doesn’t really make any sense. Even the mega-rich franchises have a functional, practical limit on how much can be spent, and as in every sport overpaying any one guy too much will eventually limit what’s left to spend on others. So it is always in a team’s interest to draw SOME line for how much they are willing to dive in with any one player, even before considering what boards or shareholders want. That their desire (to not overextend too far relative to their team’s revenue) lines up with that COMPETITIVE reality is means that said desire isn’t really changing anything.
So where does this notion come from that this is “now” how Boston is being run? They’ve long been in the Tier 1.5 (not a NYY or LAD Tier 1, but more than Tier 2) spender, and even in recent years their exceptions have only been to make sure to finish short of the luxury tax, not to drop lower than that.
The fact is that the Yankees and Dodgers of the world most win the FA bidding wars because their “extra mile” on a revenue basis is bigger than that of others. Boston can extend further than most, but not to that level, boards/shareholders or not. Sure, they could at any time choose to blow away their spending/revenue ratio, but for whatever reason that’s rare among any of the bigger spenders.
Too much coffee man?
The two words in caps are meant for emphasis, not volume or gittery energy or something. Wish we had more tools available here to help make that clearer.
A huge part of the red sox revenue comes from nesn if they can’t put a good product on the field that streaming service is gonna lose subscribers. This I think will get henry’s attention.
red sox are a bit of an outlier because FSG ownership has become so watered down that multiple hedge funds could hypothetically exert pressure to maximize profit. the red sox are now one of several FSG revenue streams alongside (among others) real estate development and the PGA
The sox brass really need to stop talking. With the kind of resources they have, expecting 90 wins and challenging for the AL East should be a given. The fact that he said that’s “our priority” for 2025 confirms that it hasn’t been the priority the past 3 years (which was evident, but still not something they should publicize).
I really hope there’s a plan here and they’re not spending just to spend.
Well said, baron. It’s too bad the Sox had to dismantle a championship squad a few years back to arrive at this obvious conclusion.
They didn’t “have” to dismantle anything, and didn’t. The 2018 team was amazing, but for some reason folks don’t realize that Boston rolled out virtually the same team in 2019 and saw that a plummet to 84 wins with those guys on hand an a weak minor league system was not something that could simply be reloaded. Boston could have pushed to keep that group’s window open as long as possible until erosion led to a complete blowup (including multiple outright BAD seasons as a result) or else they needed to pull back as they retooled. The only move that really stings is the Betts trade, and at the time and ever since there was always a lot of reason to believe that Betts was going to leave Boston after 2020 and the franchise knew it. Otherwise, what non-sensible “dismantling” did the franchise engage in? Were they wrong to move on from Benintendi when they did? Wrong to not match the ridiculous overpay of Bogaerts by SD?
They needed to rebuild the foundation, and that Bloom took too long to do it is why he isn’t in Boston anymore. But that shouldn’t be treated as some massive screwup of general approach, especially with the franchise on paper having accomplished what they set out to do (with the MLB roster having a number of quality pieces and the minor league system ready to offer big help).
Your phrase “folks don’t realize” is telling. You are expressing your point of view, as I have expressed my point of view. It’s not a matter of “folks don’t realize,” it’s a difference of opinion. As for 2019, that was Cora allowing the starting pitchers to essentially skip Spring Training. Further, giving away a franchise, home grown talent such as Mookie is, by definition, dismantling the team. Chaim Bloom’s buy & sell (lost & found) strategy at trade deadlines is another glaring example of a franchise gone wrong. Players like Matt Barnes & Xander were openly critical. The ‘Mookie was leaving town’ excuse is tired – I simply do not agree. The Sox made several bad decisions since 2019 and now they, too, the Sox brass, appear to be acknowledging that reality.
A hypothetical that looks as bad as what actually was reality is not a great example. We can guess what would have happened if we kept spending and held on to an MVP after an 84-win season. I find it hard to believe that the consequences would have been two last place finishes and our high-water mark being 81 and 81.
90-95 wins isn’t a “given” for any team, and spending doesn’t guarantee getting to that point. That’s the thing many of the more vocally complaining Sox fans fail over and over to grasp the past few years.
@Ken – I agree, 90 games isn’t a given. That’s why I said they should “expect” to win 90 games every year. Whether they do or not isn’t a given. But they should spend to a level that puts a team on the field that’s capable of winning 90 games. That should be the expectation. 90 wins is 9 games above .500. That’s not exactly a high bar with the amount of revenue they generate.
What they’ve been doing is spending in the middle of the pack and not being aggressive to fill clear holes in their roster. All of this while sitting on the cash they generate through their own TV network and the most expensive tickets in the league. If they were spending in the top 10 in the league and were just unlucky, I feel like the fans would understand. But these past 3 seasons, they haven’t even tried to compete for the AL East in a real way.
I don’t think that’s realistic for a Boston. The difference between a Yankees/Dodgers and the next group of spenders is that those two teams can expect to win 90+ games every year and have the financial margin of error to mostly fulfill that without risk of setbacks large enough to cause medium-term damage. The Bostons of the world when run by strong front offices can do the same, but under more ordinary management pushing for at least that most every year without break will eventually lead to enough damaging moves that it starts to drag on things. At that point, they could leverage spending to avoid sliding into bad seasons, but it would likely come at the cost of ceiling, basically killing the ability to put out a championship “favorite”.
The Bostons of the world should be able to “pull back” without being noncompetitive or spending ordinary money or less on payroll, and the fact is that the franchise has indeed avoided both of those. They’ve only pulled back spending to the point of avoiding needless tax penalty seasons, and especially in the ridiculously competitive AL East they have put forth competitive rosters (though only that) even as they have been holding back. If anything, that is exactly what a franchise at Boston’s market level should be doing when it reworks its entire process.
If you don’t spend, you’re not going to get to that point.
With all due respect, the Yankees have a floor of 85 wins baked into the roster with the expectation of 90-95 based on payroll and the caliber of talent. If it clicks, they go higher.
It is the reason why even during all those years they failed to win a ring, they still held the best record in all of baseball during all those years overall. If you make a concerted effort to compete every year and bring in the best available talent you will win consistently. Doesn’t mean a ring, but it does mean you will contend every year for the playoffs barring catastrophic injuries (look at the handful of years they underperformed, and you can see exactly why with little guess work). They will more than likely make a majority of playoffs, and each time they do they have a chance at a ring.
There is your difference. The Yankees don’t take a few years off. Their rebuilds are jettisons, rookies and signings to replace talent. They are trying to make the playoffs every year regardless of results. Were we?
It wasn’t the priority because the roster wasn’t in position to do it. They hired DD to take a strong talent base and turn it into a champion, and he did just that. Mission accomplished. After the 2018 championship and hard drop in 2019, their system was weak and their MLB roster was already starting to erode from injuries (e.g. Sale) and premature decline (Benintendi) and if they wanted to present a truly strong roster annually for decade-long lengths they needed to reset things first. DD wasn’t the right guy to oversee that, so they hired Bloom to build things back up, figuring they had earned enough good will (especially with another ALCS appearance in 2021) to do the job right rather than halfway.
Bloom took too long and made enough mistakes that he’s gone now, but hey presto, the talent base has indeed been built back up. As long as they follow it up with the appropriate push, it’s a sensible approach to have taken.
Ironically, you worry about “spending just to spend”, but that’s literally all the Red Sox could have done more the past few years. Go back to write-ups from each of the past offseasons highlighting which additions people thought the franchise should target (realistically, rather than just pie in the sky), and you’ll see a minefield of potential signings that would have gone wrong. Even the biggest move the team actually made (Story), seemingly to throw the fans a bone, has been a major negative.
The brass doesn’t need to stop talking – we just need an end to the clickbait portion of the media knowingly stoking up fan ire (for a franchise that for the past quarter century has done GREAT overall work) by painting a BS picture of “they should be spending a lot more and that they aren’t means they don’t care about winning”. Boston has never been a franchise that never suffers a hiccup here and there, so why should it suddenly be immune to pulling back relatively lightly while building things back up? Why do you suppose the media frauds knowingly would exclusively highlight “last place” finishes for teams that were essentially average and competitive? They just want to drive engagement by pissing fans off, no matter the negative cost to fan enjoyment and the ability of the franchise to stay the course.
Of course, all this changes if the franchise keeps holding back even with the table now set well. But if they take this “ready to push” position and follow it up by actually pushing, everything would essentially unfold as the franchise basically outlined when Bloom was hired and held to throughout that Bloom era. We’re at the key moment, so we wait to see what actions are taken!
@Redsox – ok, this is all very well written, and I’m excited they’re (hopefully) going to make a push to compete with all the new prospects coming up, but I don’t buy in to the myth that they need to bottom out after each championship. I’m not going to go back and parse every single free agent deal, but the fact that Story was their biggest signing in the last 5 years illustrates exactly what I’m saying. The past 2 offseasons at least, they’ve needed better starting pitching and a first baseman. They did next to nothing to address this, to the point where they even traded away the NL Cy Young winner for a bag of balls.
Why do the Red Sox need years of noncompetitive baseball between playoff appearances? Why is it ok for this billion-dollar organization to just press pause for a few years while telling us that these 18-20 year olds will be great someday, just trust us? They could have put a better product on the field in the meantime.
I’ll bet they land Snell and Fried
They could and then use propects to trade for vladimir guerrero junior and relief pitching.
Why would Toronto trade Vlad Jr, and more importantly why would they trade him in the division?
Teams don’t typically trade their homegrown superstars.
They haven’t signed him and red sox have one of the best farm systems
Ok, how often do superstars get traded inside a division?
Do the Red Sox have a need at 1B that would require them trading a good chunk of their good prospects for?
It makes literally no sense.
crochet will be the target in my humble opinion because he is inexpensive. this will give the sox more money to spend on free agents
That’s nice when one of the wealthiest teams in the sport is willing to pay a minor tax. They should be paying one pretty much yearly.
Sam Kennedy earlier this off-season: We don’t talk publicly about what we plan to do with our payroll, not because we’re trying to hide anything from the media, from the fans, we just don’t like to talk publicly about our payroll pans because we see it as a competitive advantage in the American League East,” Kennedy said when asked about payroll.
So which is it Sam. Getting real tired of this.
Guy flip flops so much he should get into politics.
I’ll believe it when I see it but this is probably the position the Red Sox brass have been waiting for. Payroll flexibility + stocked farm system with big league ready talent.
Next time I play poker can I have these guys at the table with me? Not exactly playing it cool are they?
“hey we have heaps of cash and we are determined to overspend d*mmit!”
I really hope it’s true. I would love for them to land 2 starters, spend the $60 mil per year and land 2 of the 3 top guys; why not? Go for it I reckon as the last couple of years have been just rubbish.
Needless to say, we all have reason to be sceptical…..
“…the Sox were one of the top six spenders in each year from 2000 to 2020,..but they have dropped themselves down to middle of the pack lately, including being 12th in each of the past two seasons”.
What’s with the weird 2 year hole in that data citation? In 2021 and 2022 the Red Sox were either 5th or 6th in both payroll and luxury tax spending…the actual high-spending window is 2001-2019, with a quick reset in 2020 followed by two more big spending years in 2021 and 2022.
In other words, this claim of “lately” is a lie. In reality, Boston did what even top spenders will occasionally do and targeted a tax penalty reset here and there, first in 2020 and then in 2023, when the team wasn’t winning anything. Nothing wrong with that. What then appears to have happened is that the franchise considered a number of potential signings last offseason, but prices a year ago were crazy (including the demands of guys who didn’t get what they wanted and signed late one-year deals) and Boston couldn’t convince the limited number of worthwhile signings to choose them. You don’t think they would have happily paid Yamamoto? That just wasn’t in the cards. So, rather than *spend for the sake of spending* (which is what a lot of media people and fans seem to demand, and is a really dumb thing to push for) for the next Trevor Story bad contract, they held the cards back for a year knowing they could make in-season moves if justified (they never quite got justified).
A year ago, the MLB roster still lacked much of an identity and the minor league system still needed to show more growth. Now, the team has presented more keepers and identity, plus the system looks primed to offer reinforcements via promotion and/or trade. Even if the signings aren’t ideal, there is no excuse if they don’t spend this time around, and if they do that would further prove that the blips down in spending were just that – temporary tax resets on the way to jumping right back into the spending pool.
P.S. What this article leaves unmentioned is that the supposedly “middle of the pack” 12th ranking in luxury tax spending is in reality close to the MAX a team can spend in a non-“push” year without foolishly edging over the tax limit (and thus logging a year of penalty that would grow with increased spending the following year). In other words, the Red Sox didn’t spend in the middle, but rather spent as much as made sense while waiting for a riper opportunity for a push. It would have been one thing for them to have a $200M or less tax payroll, meaning they easily could have spent quite a bit more while saving the tax penalties for when the time is right, but…they didn’t do that. There is a HUGE difference between reining in spending to just a bit below the tax and spending an ordinary amount on payroll.
Sam Kennedy is that you?
As I said, whether my view of the recent reduced spending is right or not, they are now in a position to have *no excuse* to not push. I expect them to push, and if they don’t I will be critical of them…which would be a weird thing for a Sam Kennedy to do.
P.S. Try to engage with people without resorting to logical fallacies…we’re all better off, in that case.
The ” weird 2 year hole in that data citation” can be found by clicking on the link in the article and seeing that in 2020 they were $180,147,694 ( 8)
The “2 year hole” he was referring to was 2021 and 2022 when they were 6th and 5th respectively in CBT payroll.
redsoxu571: Great posts! Please keep posting!
“[….if soto takes a little less to join us]”
I assume he mumbled that part at tend
“Our priority is 90 to 95 wins, and winning the American League East, and winning the division FOR MULTIPLE YEARS.”
These last three words personally give me pause. I read that as saying the Red Sox won’t sign a headliner big money starting pitcher who’s 32 years old and known as somewhat of an injury risk. I think they’ll make moves but it will be for younger guys.
Henry et al have spent too much time doing propaganda for me to trust them ever again. I’m going native and will only be getting mad at anything they do. Only until there is a title will there be acknowledgement of credit.
I can’t be the only fan who believes trading Jaren Duran now is the biggest no-brainer in the history of mankind.
The Red Sox have outfielders coming out of their ears and specifically they have a replacement you can plug into center RIGHT NOW.
Duran is a guy you need to sell high on today and try and acquire a nice young starting pitcher. I think it’s an absolute must decision.
Yes he’s a great player, yes he’s an All-Star, yes he’s improved his attention span out in the field lol, but because also he’ll be due for big money soon, I think you trade him now at the height of his value.
Who are you suggesting they trade with?
They might be able to bring back someone like logan Gilbert. That trade matches up well for both.
Blackpink that’s the next question. I don’t have an answer on the top of my head but there’s plenty of teams that could use an All-Star center fielder.
With your comment are you suggesting it would be difficult to find a taker who will give up what the Red Sox need?
No i just wanted to know exactly what you had in mind
That’s like saying they should trade Mookie Betts, without price being a problem. Duran is what got us a ton of wins. I wouldn’t touch him. Trade the young unproven guys instead.
Betts was about as safe a long-term bet as it gets. Heck, I’d like to see Boston sign Soto despite a LHH OF being their last need precisely because he would be one of those too. That makes them a different class of roster asset, IMO.
Duran has been excellent the past two seasons, but it would not shock to see that level of performance not hold up for long. If Boston agrees, AND if Duran could be leveraged the right way, good arguments can be made to move him. I’m not personally leaning that way, but it’s a reasonable consideration
I suppose, but it’d have to be a great return
They won’t win a championship unless they get 95+ wins. Getting to 90 only gets them in the playoffs. It’s hard to go from 81 to 95+ in one year but it won’t surprise me if they win it all next year. Because they are the best organization in baseball. And they can bury everyone if they want to, they have proven that over the past 24 seasons. Don’t let the last place finishes fool you, when they’re ready to win, they will.
Number of regular seasons doesn’t mean anything.
They just need to make the playoffs and then anything is possible.
Just grabbing some at random.
2023 Ranges – 90 wins
2021 Braves – 88 wins
2019 Nationals – 93 wins
2014 Giants – 88 wins
95+ wins doesn’t mean anything.
It does for the Red Sox.
More than 95, 4 championships. Less than 95, 0 championships.
Put up, or shut up.
Yeah them and the Sacramento Athletics both.
They should trade for Chris Sale, what do you think the Braves will ask for in return, more than Grissom ?
Grissom would be fine. Just the Grissom red sox fans thought he was not the actual Grissom.
I honestly can’t see this happening and won’t until it happens. Unless they’re willing to spend until they get outbid by every team who wants to pay more.
“Cant see this happening”
They’ve spent in FA for something like 20 years. They didnt for a few years while they rebuilt. Now they have the best or one of the best farm systems in the league and plenty of salary space. Why wouldnt they supplement that inbound accumulation of youthful talent with veterans?
Have you heard their press conferences and the whole “full throttle” before this year? They’ve done a complete 180 in how they operate
I don’t trust anything Sam Kennedy says
What does “full throttle” mean? Can you translate that to a dollar amount?
It shouldnt have been said last year, I completely agree. But, it was probably said in the spur of the moment. And to continually bringing up that one soundbite a year later is a little ridiculous.
I just have to see it to believe it. The last three years the Sox (in my opinion) have not had a clear direction. They went halfway with stocking up young talent and halfway with trying to compete. If we were really rebuilding, then Jansen, O’Neill, and several others would’ve been traded at the deadline. We wouldn’t have needed to even sign O’Neill… Story, Devers, and Yoshida were “big acquisitions” that had nothing to do with rebuilding but competing now. Sox were trying to compete with a small payroll, despite people claiming “rebuild,” so why will it be different now? I can’t imagine until i see it.
The last 3 years have 100% been a clear direction.
Build a youthful minor leagues, while freeing salary space to complement that youth movement when the time comes. Its just taking a little longer than expected.
Inconsistency comes from fans with ridiculous demands like ‘compete every single year’. So the team frequently makes moves they shouldnt to appease fans. They need ticket sales and views on NESN to further their product. So, sometimes they have to make decisions that are inconsistent with their main objective.
“Build a youthful minor leagues”
Lol. I meant ‘talent heavy’
I Believe It Means All Gas Pedal, No Brakes
a NY Jet crash landing.
Ceddanne Rafaela wasn’t mentioned in this article, and he has an 8 year contract with the Red Sox. He scuffle at the end of his first year but will develop very well in the future years of his contract while playing CF/SS. He wore down in year one but will improve!
I hate Rafaela at the plate, but I do think the trajectory is improvement. It would be hard to be less disciplined and give away at bats at his pace without figuring at least a couple of things out about how he gets himself out.
But wait, I thought the Red Sox publicly stated they werent going to spend any money until their four big prospects were in the majors?
At least thats what Ive read many times here from one poster. Lol.
Awful move. They are still 3rd 4th 5th in attendance like always. Their fans will literally watch any product. No reason to go over luxury tax. Sounds like fans don’t believe they will so even more reason not to.
Instead of Snell how about Perez Quintana? Did I hear Rich Hill still wants to play?
As Jerry McGuire said famously, “Show me the money”! They need TOR pitching above anything else. Personally I wouldn’t go after Soto, if I didn’t care much about the money I’d just re-sign Tyler O’Neil. He’s an athletic 30 Homer 100 RBI guy when healthy. We have young capable outfielders to handle minor injury stints. If the piggy bank is broken and we can go on a spending spree why not get Snell and Freid? That’s what I’d do instead of chasing Soto.
Wait for it. Kennedys nose is starting to grow.
trade for crochet sign snell, sign hernandez, sign scott and another middle reliever.
Remember that snell did not receive a qualified offer, so the sox have to give up nothing to sign him.
Crochet has a very very small salary.
Tanner scott is the closer.
Hernandez is right-handed power.
I would pass on Soto. I know how good he is, but the Sox could sign Teoscar Hernandez and Willie Adames and maybe one more free agent for the same amount of money. They have a surplus of good young outfielders, especially left handed hitters. Trade some prospects for Crochet and sign Evoldi.
Redsox have set themselves up perfectly. Smartest organization in baseball. Tremendous youth with deep pockets
and Theo Epstein is back!
i agree
big window coming
if i were a red sox fan i’d be pumped
It’s not just about cutting big checks. They need to do what Dodgers do in evaluating their needs, assessing who’s available, determining what’s aquisitions are best for their team, and then be creative n do what u have to do to sign those free agents. Need to spend that capital wisely so as not to take on over the hill big names or players w/too many red flags (injuries, waning performance, older age, team 1st attitude, etc.). Dodgers don’t just give away money there is a detailed process involved to finding the gems amongst the fodder.