Jeff Hoffman’s breakout as an elite reliever in the Phillies’ bullpen over the past two seasons played a huge role in the team’s success, but now that he’s a free agent it’s possible he’ll sign in a completely different role. ESPN’s Kiley McDaniel reported within his ranking of the offseason’s top free agents that some clubs have considered pursuing Hoffman as a starting pitcher. The Athletic’s Matt Gelb backs that up in his own report, further pointing out that Hoffman is represented the same agency (CAA) that represented Reynaldo Lopez during his own switch from the bullpen to the rotation last winter.
Hoffman, 32 in January, has quietly been a dominant force in the Philadelphia bullpen since signing a minor league deal early in the 2023 season. Recency bias might conjure up the unflattering memory of the right-hander’s NLDS meltdown against the Mets, but from 2023-24, Hoffman compiled 118 2/3 innings of 2.28 ERA ball while punching out a gaudy 33.4% of his opponents against a 7.4% walk rate. This postseason’s pair of regrettable outings against the Mets isn’t an ideal final memory, but Hoffman also snapped off six shutout innings of relief with eight strikeouts and no walks during the 2023 NLCS.
Excellent as Hoffman has been in relief, there’s reason to believe he could succeed in a lengthier role. First and foremost, the former No. 8 overall draft pick was a starter in his college days at East Carolina University and began his pro career in a rotation role. He started 11 big league games as recently as 2021 with Cincinnati and didn’t move to a full-time relief role until his 2022 season with the Reds. Hoffman has appeared in 361 professional games (majors and minors combined); 145 of them (40%) have been starts.
Beyond his familiarity with the role, Hoffman still uses a four-pitch repertoire even when working out of the bullpen. Many relievers who were once starters narrow their arsenal down to two pitches when they move to a short relief role. Hoffman still threw four pitches at least 8% of the time in 2024: a four-seamer (39%), slider (40.8%), splitter (12%) and sinker (8.2%). He averaged a fiery 96.6 mph on that four-seamer and 96.7 mph on his sinker. Those numbers would surely go down were Hoffman to begin working five, six and seven innings at a time, but even with reduced life on his fastballs he could still have average or better velocity. The league-average starting pitcher in 2024 sat 94.2 mph with his four-seamer, per Statcast.
Among those four pitches, Statcast has ranked them all as plus offerings over the past two seasons. Hoffman’s slider has easily been the best of the bunch, producing a huge 20.6% swinging-strike rate and limiting opponents to a .160/.201/.215 batting line when finishing off a plate appearance with that offering (dating back to Opening Day 2023). Again, whether he could sustain that level of dominance when facing opponents a second and third time through the order isn’t certain, but Hoffman’s wipeout slider has played an enormous role in his breakout since signing with the Phillies.
There are health and performance risks when taking a reliever and stretching him out. Hoffman hasn’t reached even 100 innings (majors and minors combined) in a season since 2019. Even among the reliever-to-starter experiments that panned out nicely in 2024, no one from the bunch worked what could be considered a full workload.
Garrett Crochet came the closest, compiling 146 innings across 32 starts, but the White Sox didn’t allow him to pitch more than four innings in a start after the calendar flipped to July. The aforementioned Lopez reached 135 2/3 innings but had a pair of IL stints owing to forearm and shoulder inflammation. Angels righty Jose Soriano went from 65 1/3 innings in 2023 to 113 in 2024 but was shut down for the season on Aug. 17 due to arm fatigue. Giants righty Jordan Hicks thrived in the rotation through late May before stumbling to an ERA over 6.00 in the early summer and being dropped back to the ’pen in mid-July. He finished at 109 2/3 innings with a 4.10 ERA. Seth Lugo is perhaps the best recent example of success in this transition. He jumped from 65 innings with the 2022 Mets to 146 innings with the 2023 Padres and 206 innings with this past season’s Royals.
Notably, McDaniel opines that Hoffman is still likelier to sign as a reliever. It’s the role in which he’s dominated over the past two seasons, and while he’s not the No. 1 reliever in this offseason’s free agent class — most publications, including MLBTR, assigned that honor to lefty Tanner Scott — Hoffman has a case to be considered the No. 2 or No. 3 bullpen arm on the open market this winter.
Gelb suggests Hoffman may prefer the relief role, though logically speaking, one would imagine he’d simply take the best offer possible. This is Hoffman’s first real crack at a notable MLB contract. He took home a signing bonus of just over $3MM in the draft but was non-tendered throughout his arbitration years and earned a relatively modest $2.2MM this past season in his final arb season. Even with that draft bonus, Hoffman’s career earnings fall shy of $8MM. He’ll presumably prioritize top dollar, regardless of location or role.
Spotrac has Hoffman at $9.3 million for career earnings. But what the hey, a million here, a million there…
He’d get more money as a starter, so I’m sure he’d jump at the chance.
People seem to forget how he bombed as a starter, which is why he is a relief pitcher now. Why anyone thinks that would change is beyond me.
Came here to say the same. There’s a reason he’s a relief pitcher now. Don’t think he has the arm to go beyond 3 innings consistently before getting tagged.
Agreed. The Rox originally traded Tulo to the Jays for him in the hopes he was their answer in the rotation. He bombed.
The Reds thought to do the same and traded for him. He bombed.
A stop in Minny didn’t help. Then he developed in a very solid reliever with the Phillies.
I don’t think he’s the answer to anyone’s rotation.
Hoffman isn’t better than Minter, its not even close. The author of the article is 100% incorrect in calling Hoffman the number 2 reliever on the market
You might be a little bias because the Mets creamed Hoffman in the playoffs, but Hoffman’s numbers are actually better than Minter’s. Lower ERA in much more appearances.
Agreed….and I don’t take anyone seriously the adds “BannedForBeingABaseballExpert” to their screen name.
Hoffman has had a better last 2 years, if factoring in Minter abnormally a couple of months last season, but Minter has had a much better career at a higher rate than Hoffman, who seems to have turned a corner last 2 seasons. Question is: can he keep it up? There’s a lot higher floor on a southpaw with a good track record and healthy K-rate who can get an occasional save, like Minter.
@RunDMC Now this is a post I can agree with. LFG was just spouting nonsense.
Well, the name should have been the first indicator, much like anyone that puts the body of an email in the subject line.
That’s all he ever does
At this point in their careers Hoffman is most definitely better than Minter.
Definitely found some special sauce in Philly. Guy had a high 4 to low 5 SIERA his whole career and all of the sudden it’s down around mid to high 2. SIERA.
Buyer beware.
He was in Colorado and he didn’t have a defined role. I actually think Hoffman is going to be a very solid reliever for the next few years. I don’t know about this starter business though.
@VonPurpleHayes
SIERA is park-adjusted so Coors or Petco don’t matter.
Oh cool. TY. I missed the point about SIERA. You may be right, but I think he really turned a corner the last 2 years.
Pitches move differently in Colorado.
Hoffman has never had a friendly home pitching venue.
@jbigz12
SIERA is park-adjusted so Coors Field doesn’t matter.
I don’t think you understand. Pitches move differently in Colorado. Some guys do not work there for that reason.
Park factor isnt the concern. It’s not like pitching in Cincy v. Detroit. It’s the air.
Hoffman is one of the better relievers in baseball. He’ll be a good signing for whoever winds up with him
Bad idea. He had an ERA of over 6.00 as a starter for the Rockies. The guy is only effective across 1 inning outings. Leave him be.
Yeah. This seems odd to me. The guy has been an elite reliever over the past two seasons. Why would anyone mess that up?
To be fair, every Rockies starter ever has had an ERA over 6.00, I think
Isn’t that true for many Rockie’s starters?
Remember Mike Hampton, Darryl Kile, etc..
He bombed as a starter for the Reds too. It was not just in Colorado.
These Ivy League GMs trying to outsmart themselves again
These Ivy League GMs are a lot smarter than the beer-swilling good-ole-boy GMs of years gone by.
Crochet goes to the Yanks
Cole goes to the Mets
Gerrit Cole to the Mets?
Watch the Braves sign Hoffman and put him in the starting rotation and he goes 19-3 with a 2.25 ERA
You said it, brother.
If he became a successful starter, it wouldn’t be the strangest career arc we’ve seen, but it’d be up there.
Come on Perry open Artes wallet. 5 years for $60 mil. Can try as a starter if needed for a year or so. You’ll lose a year like all Angels pitchers to an injury at some point then bullpen the rest. But for it to be a typical bad Angels contract Arte would probably do 5 years for 100 mil.
Even as a Hoff fan, I’m gonna say I don’t see it. Then again, I had my doubts about Lorenzen, Reynaldo, and Lugo and two were All Stars this year and the other threw a no-hitter before my own eyes in 2023. So what do I know?
Good luck with that. Really like Jeff, had an opportunity to speak with him at the game that phans were allowed on to the field. One of the diamonds in the rough that really helped the Phillies the past couple of years. But he works deep counts, tries to get guys to chase out of the zone, max effort from a velocity stand point. He should be looking for a 3 year deal in the 35 million range where he’ll have a chance to close games. Last thing I said to him was, “you’re gonna get paid somewhere.” And he smiled ear to ear.
Interesting free agency, Hoffman’s market is what it is as a top flight with a good four pitch mix that could potentially translate well in a starting role. With Lugo, Crochet, Lopez and others to a lessor extent having big success in moving into the rotation, teams have to be looking closely at players like Hoffman, because if he does find similar success in a starting role and can be signed on a three to four year deal at a relief pitchers base, well that’s a bargain for a ball club. As Hoffman’s agent, you have to be looking for something like two years 35M, with a team option. As a ball club that’s a nice gamble too, even if he doesn’t work out as a starter, move back to the bullpen likely proves serviceable. A lot of interest in a player like this I’d imagine, should be ripe for a nice contract in a team with a hole in their rotation.
God, fire this Adams guy. He can’t write. “Excellent as Hoffman has been in relief” is NOT PROPER ENGLISH. You can’t just leave “as” out at the start of the sentence. It isn’t optional, and neither is correct grammar for a professional writer who works for MLBTR.