There are a few players who are tough to predict during the preparation of the Top 50 free agents every year. Often, they're players whose reputation outpaces their statistical output, especially in their walk year. Pete Alonso is the best example this offseason.
We landed on a five-year, $125MM prediction that ranked him seventh in the class. That seems to be below market consensus. Other estimates of Alonso's earning power have landed in the $140MM to $170MM range.* Those align more closely with the Polar Bear's reputation as a star, putting him in the Freddie Freeman or Matt Olson bucket. Freeman landed a deferred $162MM contract from the Dodgers, while Olson's extension with the Braves guaranteed him $168MM over eight seasons.
Alonso likely expects to be paid similarly. Joel Sherman of the New York Post has reported that Alonso declined a seven-year, $158MM offer from the Mets in June 2023. That would have bought out his final arbitration season and six free agent years. Alonso collected $20.5MM for his last arbitration year, so the extension proposal can be considered akin to $137.5MM over six seasons. As recently as last summer, Alonso and his previous representatives felt he could do better. (He has since hired the Boras Corporation.) He'll need to buck some market trends for that to be the case.
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“The World May Never Know…At least non MLBTR subscribers. Ahahaha!
He won’t be getting as much as he thinks and don’t ever compare him to the legend Grand Slam Freddie.
How about Chris Davis?
Freeman was 2 years older when he signed that deal with the Dodgers than Alonso is now so in total dollars in today’s value Alonso is very likely to get more. $57 million of Freeman’s deal was deferred with no interest, making his contract worth $148 million In AAV Alonso probably does not surpass $27 million but should get close to the $24.66 million AAV that Freeman’s deal is worth.
Why not, Pete has more HR/RBI than FF since he came into the league with no one batting behind him. That’s comparable
Whats did mets offer last yr, 180mil? Rough reg season but great playoff run. Boras is looking for 200mil+ now i think
It’s in the article above (hopefully quoting this is allowed considering the subscriber thing) and broken down nicely considering the Arb year:
“Joel Sherman of the New York Post has reported that Alonso declined a seven-year, $158MM offer from the Mets in June 2023. That would have bought out his final arbitration season and six free agent years. Alonso collected $20.5MM for his last arbitration year, so the extension proposal can be considered akin to $137.5MM over six seasons.”
With that in mind, Boras is probably looking for $150 million. I think Pete signs for closer to $135 million.
That’s funny, i keep saying 6/135 gets it done
Is another option one of the Boras-4 type deals from last offseason/pre-season? I could see a Bellinger-type contract. Not what Alonso had hoped for in terms of length, but it would include an option to get out after a year.
Pete is gonna have a Bellinger type run through free agency. I bet he settles for 3/90 with opt outs.
@rct —I hope you’re right
@markbrunell: Here’s a wild idea: try actually reading the article before commenting on it
From the article,
“Joel Sherman of the New York Post has reported that Alonso declined a seven-year, $158MM offer from the Mets in June 2023. That would have bought out his final arbitration season and six free agent years. Alonso collected $20.5MM for his last arbitration year, so the extension proposal can be considered akin to $137.5MM over six seasons.”
All he needs to do is beat $137.5 million, and he is doing better than that contract.
My guess is he is asking for 7/180, a $5 million AAV raise over what he made in his final season of arbitration, and he will get something closer to 6/150 or 160.
He’ll be a full time DH in two years. No DH in the world (unless your name is Ohtani) is worth a 5 year 170 million contract.
Someone will be making a huge mistake. The Alonso you saw in the postseason is not the real Alonso.
7 years 175 Mets sign him. If they can give Severino 21 million a year they can certainly do 25 for Alonso even if it for 7 years.
A) they haven’t given Sevy anything but an offer
B) it’s for only one season, hence the high AAV
My point is there is no reason to think the Mets will be outbid for Alonso. None at all.
Severino isn’t worth anywhere near 21 million.
“My point is there is no reason to think the Mets will be outbid for Alonso. None at all.”
There is every reason to think they will be outbid. There are a ton of teams without a good first basemen. I mean, even within the same city, the Yankees could use one. So could the Cubs or Nationals. And Mets have both internal (moving Vientos to 1B) and external (could sign Soto and move him to 1B) options. The Mets are not going to break the bank for Pete. They will offer him a fair deal. If someone offers more, he’s gone.
Also there is no planet on which the Mets would offer 7/$175. None at all. This has absolutely nothing to do with their *offer* of a QO to Sevy. Shorter deals = higher AAV. Sevy is not worth $21 million/year over a multi-year deal, but for a one year deal, most teams in baseball would do that. He got 1/$13 million last offseason despite being absolutely terrible in 2023.
Cubs don’t have room for a 1b. The Yankees have other concerns. Nationals make sense but are the Mets really going to let the Nationals outbid them for Alonso? I highly doubt it.
No other team in baseball would offer Severino 21 million in 2024. None. Mets messed up.
“My point is there is no reason to think the Mets will be outbid for Alonso. None at all.”
Maybe the Mets (and other teams) think Alonso’s best years are already behind him. Do you pay someone for what they’ve already done or what you estimate/hope they’ll do in the future? Annual production from these players isn’t a constant.
The Mets just gave Severino 21 million. When are his best years coming?
Free agents always get paid for what they have already done. That’s just how it works and most are overpaid. If someone is going to be frugal it won’t be the Mets with Alonso.
Severino is for one year. It’s not about being frugal; it’s about making intelligent baseball decisions so that you hopefully don’t end up with the next Chris Davis. And if Severino doesn’t
work out, the Mets won’t have him for three more years like the Phillies do with Taijuan Walker.
There is no reality where Severino is worth 21 million even for just 1 year.
Maybe Alonso doesn’t live up to the contract. The Mets can afford to be wrong.
I will say it again. There is no reason the Mets will be outbid for Alonso. He’s worth more to them because of his status on the team and in the community and they have plenty of money.
By all means please pick Alonso to sign with someone else. I want to win the contest.
So, do you think sentimentality for the past is more important than trying to put a winning product on the field?
Severino getting the offer was a surprise. It might be an unwise decision, but it’s for one year. If Alonso doesn’t live up to his contract, he remains on the payroll until the contract ends.
Why do you think Alonso doesn’t help them win? He sure helped them win in 2024. He’s helped them win in the past. Is he suddenly no good????
Alonso might outproduce his pay early in the contract. That’s typically how it works. And like I said the Mets can afford to be wrong even of it does go bad. So who cares?
If I were running a team, I would care. Alonso seems to be trending downward. The Mets organization sees him up close every day. Players don’t put up the same numbers every year. What if the Mets feel they’ve already seen the best of Alonso? He’s an extremely one-dimensional player.
You arent running a team. The Mets had a 400 million dollar payroll in 2023. You really think the Mets are looking under a microscope for reasons NOT to sign him?
Any good organization carefully examines all aspects of a transaction before making one. All business people do that. Do you think the Mets owner, whose primary goal is to build a Casino on his ballpark’s land, is looking to throw money away? What if his baseball people advise him to go in a different direction?
From what I have seen from their owner i think he’s willing to spend money. Plenty of money.
You really have no idea what you’re talking about. Pete’s contract has absolutely nothing to do with a one year offer to a SP.
Stearns is running the show. I could see him going elsewhere. Seems like a Mike Rizzo move to Washington. If the Mets don’t land Soto—I think that increases the odds he heads back.
I think Stearns likes Vientos as the 1B option.
Blackpink: Why do you have such a hard-on for Severino? He’s worth what the market will bear, not what you think in your vacuum.
Not worth 21 million. Not even close.
He is if a team offers it. You have zero basis for your argument.
@Blackpink/Joel First the Mets signed Severino to a $13M AAV deal. That deal was also only for 1 year.
That might mean something if he even was paid $21M.he was paid $13M on his one year deal tho….
“There is no reality where Severino is worth 21 million even for just 1 year.”
A) yes, there is. This one. Noah Syndergaard got one year and $21 million back in 2021’s offseason, coming off of pitching only two innings over the previous two seasons combined. And in his last action prior to that (2019), he was not as good as Sevy was this year. I guarantee you that if Sevy were a free agent right now without a QO attached, and he told teams that he would sign a one year, $21 million deal, half the teams in baseball would offer it.
B) please stop bringing Severino up. His QO offer has literally nothing to do with how much Alonso will get paid.
C) you clearly do not know anything about the Mets. If any team offers Pete a contract north of $150 million, they absolutely will *not* match it. They didn’t offer him anything near that last year and won’t this year.
“The Mets had a 400 million dollar payroll in 2023.”
Because of a couple of ill-advised signings by Billy Eppler, who is no longer the Mets’ GM. They’re not in the business of just throwing money at everyone anymore. They’re trying to be smarter about it.
“Cubs don’t have room for a 1b. The Yankees have other concerns. Nationals make sense but are the Mets really going to let the Nationals outbid them for Alonso? I highly doubt it.”
Cubs absolutely have room for a 1B. Who is their 1B? Michael Busch? They could slide him to 3B. The “Yankees have other concerns”. Like what? They literally do not have a 1B right now. And if the Nationals offer more than the Mets, they will not match it. They are *not* going to get into a bidding war with anyone.
“No other team in baseball would offer Severino 21 million in 2024. None. Mets messed up.”
Half of the teams in baseball would take Sevy at one year and $21 million. You are ridiculously out of touch with how much starting pitching costs. Taijuan Walker got 4/$72MM coming off a season not much better than Sevy’s. Tyler Glasnow got over $100 million despite never pitching more than 120 innings in a season. Jordan Lyles got a multi-year deal at $8.5 million per despite being the worst pitcher in baseball. Get a clue.
I hope my little brother hits 50 dingers next year (never played in his life). If you’re paying on hope, I’ll let him go for 3/90. Of course you’re paying on previous production. Then you’re usually losing your a$$ and $$$ by the 3rd year.
“Mets messed up.”
Well, seeing how pitching is rather expensive and has been recently, you think it’s a stretch to offer a pretty good 2/3 type pitcher a one year deal at $21MM? There are reasons players barely ever accept the QO: stuff happens and they want security and it’s not $21MM they are dreaming about. It’s 4-5 years at $18-$20 per year. For example, last year off of a couple of “not good” years, Lucas Giolito got 2/$38MM with incentives, then immediately got hurt. Now, that becomes a one year (at best) $38 contract. If he had been given a signed a $21MM contract, after his injury this year he would be looking at a pretty low contract to reset a list value, like $5MM. Hence, he loses $12MM, at least. That’s why Severino would not be keen to jump at it. Mets didn’t mess up.
Go rct. Lay. It. On. There’s Blackspam in the Area.
I don’t know if it will be Alonso, but it is time for the Nats to make a splash. Alonso hits the bombs and rises to big occasions. That kind of charisma would be a welcome addition as the Nats work to reopen the window of contention. Alonso has lesser stats the last few years, but that is not a guarantee that he can’t bounce back.
I keep hearing walker to the nats which seems like a good fit
I think the Yankees will have a lot of interest in Walker. And honestly, he will be the better signing of the two.
Positively Half St;
How exactly do the Nationals complete against the Braves, Mets and Phillies with their pitching? It’s awful. They don’t have 2 decent starters, a closer, or any consistent set-up guys.
I don’t think Pete – or any position player – goes there as a FA for more than a one year make-good contract then re-enter the FA market.
Pete plus Arenado.
Garcia/Abrams
Packed outfield with youth and speed and power.
Buy or trade for a couple of veteran SPs.
They are close. They have more young offensive talent than Cleveland or KC.
Washington is close.
Arenado is washed up.
Herz, Parker, and Gore are all solid SP’s. Nats don’t have a frontline starter but they certainly have some pitchers.
They’re not there yet but they aren’t very far off. I think 2026 they’re a postseason club.
Angels
$125M/5 is right imo, and he stays with the NYMs.
Full agreement with this. I think even Mets fans who don’t love Pete would be happy if he came back for 5/$125MM.
Hi rct. That would be me. I don’t like one dimensional low batting average players. But yeah, at 5/$125, that’s a deal we can almost all live with. I think he signs for more in Washington DC.
The George Springer 6 years thing all over again. Don’t go past 5 years.
I wouldn’t give Pete a penny over what Schwarber got. Below average defense and hes too streaky with the bat. Not clutch at all outside of that homerun agaisnt the Brewers. Strikes out way too much for my liking. Highly overated by the fans. Hes been going downhill since hes rookie year
Over the last 4 seasons Alonso is slightly above average on defense. A 6 DRS. He was a -3 DRS in 2024, so slightly below average. In OAA he is below average, but that only takes into account balls hit in play that the 1B gets to, not the rest of the things a 1B does on defense like catch balls thrown from other positions. Alonso was the best in baseball at that with 39 Scoops or offline throws scooped out of the dirt. 2nd best was 26 Scoops and average was 15 Scoops.
You can find that stat on Fangraphs and Baseball Prospectus. What that means Alonso saved 39 errors by other Mets infielders and 24 errors more than the average 1B. 39 errors is just over 4 wins based on run expectancy. If you were a Mets fan, you would love that stat and Alonso’s skill at scooping balls out of the dirt.
Ha. I just thought of this past season’s Mets’ “Kidcaster Contest” winner, 9-year-old Kingston Nahm-Korn. In his half-inning of play-by-play during a Mets’ game, he commented on the Polar Bear’s speed by saying, “He’s not too fast, but he’s faster than a real polar bear.”
This will always be part of Alonso’s legacy as a Met.
Funnier still, the poor kid wasn’t even right.
Polar bears can top out at 40 km/hr (25 mph)
Usain Bolt topped out at 43.99 km/h but that was for 100 meters. At about 150 meters, the polar bear would be having Bolt kabobs.
A real polar bear is far faster then Pete.
Those contract comps are brutal. This reads like is an aggressive Alonso hater account.
The couple of teams that can afford what Boras is asking are prioritizing spending at other positions. Signs later at a lesser deal with opt outs after each season.
Alonso had a .788 OPS last season. And he’s a terrible right handed 1B, that can’t run, heading into his age 30 season, attached to a QO. He’d be lucky to get a Bellinger offer. Bellinger was 28 and could play good CF & run coming off .881 OPS – Yes, he was a huge injury risk – He went back to the Cubs 3/80 with opt outs every year. – Alonso MIGHT get that from the Mets but any other team would be dumb to do that.
@jade 2 No way the Mets would offer 3/80m with player options, guaranteeing they’ll have to pay Alonso $80m if his performance declines as every projection system expects.
I’d be surprised if they offer a flat 3/80m, no opt outs. There’s just no place for Alonso, who may well never be worth a regular slot again. His 2024 season clocked in at a borderline 2.1 fWAR. With age-related decline factored in Pete rates to hit 28 HR in 2025 with a .305 OBP. Could he do better? Sure. He also might fall off the cliff.
Anything more than 3/$75 is an overpay, be it years or dollar amount (unless he signs for like 8/$100)
He is going to remain a Met and it’s just that simple
I’m not sure it’s simple. The Mets should pay a bit more than what other teams are willing to pay as the Mets don’t lose any QO pick or cash by signing him, and they know he’s a good fit with his teammates, media and fans. If Pete overplays his hand I think the Mets are capable of letting him go. See DeGrom, although the Texas contact for Jacob was extra stupid.
Well, your post is just that simple.
Is that what you meant?
“Those align more closely with the Polar Bear’s reputation as a star, putting him in the Freddie Freeman or Matt Olson bucket.”
A star? In what sense?
Pete’s not in Freeman’s zipcode as a hitter or a fielder. He’s turning into Dave Kingman, a one-dimensional slugger who doesn’t get on base and shouldn’t play the field. As for Matt Olson, he was 28 when the Braves dealt for and extended him, Since then he’s put up 3.3, 7.0, and 4.0 WAR seasons. The chances Pete is half that good over the next three years are just about zero.