There are a few players who are tough to predict during the preparation of the Top 50 free agents every year. Often, they're players whose reputation outpaces their statistical output, especially in their walk year. Pete Alonso is the best example this offseason.
We landed on a five-year, $125MM prediction that ranked him seventh in the class. That seems to be below market consensus. Other estimates of Alonso's earning power have landed in the $140MM to $170MM range.* Those align more closely with the Polar Bear's reputation as a star, putting him in the Freddie Freeman or Matt Olson bucket. Freeman landed a deferred $162MM contract from the Dodgers, while Olson's extension with the Braves guaranteed him $168MM over eight seasons.
Alonso likely expects to be paid similarly. Joel Sherman of the New York Post has reported that Alonso declined a seven-year, $158MM offer from the Mets in June 2023. That would have bought out his final arbitration season and six free agent years. Alonso collected $20.5MM for his last arbitration year, so the extension proposal can be considered akin to $137.5MM over six seasons. As recently as last summer, Alonso and his previous representatives felt he could do better. (He has since hired the Boras Corporation.) He'll need to buck some market trends for that to be the case.
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“The World May Never Know…At least non MLBTR subscribers. Ahahaha!
He won’t be getting as much as he thinks and don’t ever compare him to the legend Grand Slam Freddie.
How about Chris Davis?
Whats did mets offer last yr, 180mil? Rough reg season but great playoff run. Boras is looking for 200mil+ now i think
It’s in the article above (hopefully quoting this is allowed considering the subscriber thing) and broken down nicely considering the Arb year:
“Joel Sherman of the New York Post has reported that Alonso declined a seven-year, $158MM offer from the Mets in June 2023. That would have bought out his final arbitration season and six free agent years. Alonso collected $20.5MM for his last arbitration year, so the extension proposal can be considered akin to $137.5MM over six seasons.”
With that in mind, Boras is probably looking for $150 million. I think Pete signs for closer to $135 million.
That’s funny, i keep saying 6/135 gets it done
Is another option one of the Boras-4 type deals from last offseason/pre-season? I could see a Bellinger-type contract. Not what Alonso had hoped for in terms of length, but it would include an option to get out after a year.
@markbrunell: Here’s a wild idea: try actually reading the article before commenting on it
He’ll be a full time DH in two years. No DH in the world (unless your name is Ohtani) is worth a 5 year 170 million contract.
Someone will be making a huge mistake. The Alonso you saw in the postseason is not the real Alonso.
7 years 175 Mets sign him. If they can give Severino 21 million a year they can certainly do 25 for Alonso even if it for 7 years.
A) they haven’t given Sevy anything but an offer
B) it’s for only one season, hence the high AAV
My point is there is no reason to think the Mets will be outbid for Alonso. None at all.
Severino isn’t worth anywhere near 21 million.
“My point is there is no reason to think the Mets will be outbid for Alonso. None at all.”
There is every reason to think they will be outbid. There are a ton of teams without a good first basemen. I mean, even within the same city, the Yankees could use one. So could the Cubs or Nationals. And Mets have both internal (moving Vientos to 1B) and external (could sign Soto and move him to 1B) options. The Mets are not going to break the bank for Pete. They will offer him a fair deal. If someone offers more, he’s gone.
Also there is no planet on which the Mets would offer 7/$175. None at all. This has absolutely nothing to do with their *offer* of a QO to Sevy. Shorter deals = higher AAV. Sevy is not worth $21 million/year over a multi-year deal, but for a one year deal, most teams in baseball would do that. He got 1/$13 million last offseason despite being absolutely terrible in 2023.
Cubs don’t have room for a 1b. The Yankees have other concerns. Nationals make sense but are the Mets really going to let the Nationals outbid them for Alonso? I highly doubt it.
No other team in baseball would offer Severino 21 million in 2024. None. Mets messed up.
“My point is there is no reason to think the Mets will be outbid for Alonso. None at all.”
Maybe the Mets (and other teams) think Alonso’s best years are already behind him. Do you pay someone for what they’ve already done or what you estimate/hope they’ll do in the future? Annual production from these players isn’t a constant.
The Mets just gave Severino 21 million. When are his best years coming?
Free agents always get paid for what they have already done. That’s just how it works and most are overpaid. If someone is going to be frugal it won’t be the Mets with Alonso.
Severino is for one year. It’s not about being frugal; it’s about making intelligent baseball decisions so that you hopefully don’t end up with the next Chris Davis. And if Severino doesn’t
work out, the Mets won’t have him for three more years like the Phillies do with Taijuan Walker.
There is no reality where Severino is worth 21 million even for just 1 year.
Maybe Alonso doesn’t live up to the contract. The Mets can afford to be wrong.
I will say it again. There is no reason the Mets will be outbid for Alonso. He’s worth more to them because of his status on the team and in the community and they have plenty of money.
By all means please pick Alonso to sign with someone else. I want to win the contest.
So, do you think sentimentality for the past is more important than trying to put a winning product on the field?
Severino getting the offer was a surprise. It might be an unwise decision, but it’s for one year. If Alonso doesn’t live up to his contract, he remains on the payroll until the contract ends.
Why do you think Alonso doesn’t help them win? He sure helped them win in 2024. He’s helped them win in the past. Is he suddenly no good????
Alonso might outproduce his pay early in the contract. That’s typically how it works. And like I said the Mets can afford to be wrong even of it does go bad. So who cares?
If I were running a team, I would care. Alonso seems to be trending downward. The Mets organization sees him up close every day. Players don’t put up the same numbers every year. What if the Mets feel they’ve already seen the best of Alonso? He’s an extremely one-dimensional player.
You arent running a team. The Mets had a 400 million dollar payroll in 2023. You really think the Mets are looking under a microscope for reasons NOT to sign him?
I don’t know if it will be Alonso, but it is time for the Nats to make a splash. Alonso hits the bombs and rises to big occasions. That kind of charisma would be a welcome addition as the Nats work to reopen the window of contention. Alonso has lesser stats the last few years, but that is not a guarantee that he can’t bounce back.
I keep hearing walker to the nats which seems like a good fit
I think the Yankees will have a lot of interest in Walker. And honestly, he will be the better signing of the two.
How exactly do the Nationals complete against the Braves, Mets and Phillies with their pitching? It’s awful. They don’t have 2 decent starters, a closer, or any consistent set-up guys.
I don’t think Pete – or any position player – goes there as a FA for more than a one year make-good contract to re-enter the FA market.
Angels
$125M/5 is right imo, and he stays with the NYMs.
Full agreement with this. I think even Mets fans who don’t love Pete would be happy if he came back for 5/$125MM.