Ha-Seong Kim represents one of the biggest risk-reward plays of this year's free agent class. That didn't seem like it'd be the case in August. For most of the season, Kim's profile was built around stability. He wasn't a huge offensive threat, but his plus defense at shortstop and league average bat gave him a strong floor. Kim hadn't had a single injured list stint since making the move from Korea, so durability was going to be one of his biggest selling points.
That changed on August 18. Kim dove back into first base awkwardly on a pickoff attempt. He jammed his right shoulder and went on the IL. The Padres initially announced the injury as inflammation and expressed hope he'd be back within a couple weeks. Kim didn't return and eventually underwent a season-ending labrum repair.
Kim's return timeline is up in the air, as is his free agent value. It seems clear he won't be ready for Opening Day. There's not much known beyond that. Agent Scott Boras has said the 29-year-old will be ready early in the '25 campaign. Padres president of baseball operations A.J. Preller was more vague, saying last month that it could be anytime around "May, June, July." Forecasting Kim's market when there's such a wide variance on his return timeline is tricky. That's borne out in the extreme range of pre-offseason contract predictions.
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The key comment by Preller, Kim won’t start throwing at all until after the season starts.
Yup, let’s all believe what agent Scott Boras says
Curly’s Back!
I had to come back, I’m a victim of soicumstance
The Dodgers could use him in the minors.
That’s hilarious. The Dodgers have so many great players that they need to sign above average good players to cover their AAA depth roster. Holy smokes!
Back to San Diego on a one-year deal with a player option?
Maybe because Kim is at his low right now so why sign for a long time
If he has a breakout 2025 (say with his same defense and an 800 ops) then I could see him get close or up to 100 million
Kim is only supposed to play 3 months in 2025. Hard to have a breakout season when he is only playing half of it. Plus, that injury is one that effects both throwing and hitting. Kim is looking at a below par 3 months. Do you think teams are going to want to pay him for that without getting to have a season or two of him closer to his normal?
1 year at $12 million seemed extremely unlikely when I read it but I guess we’ll see
San Francisco Giants. 100%. The same way that Sasaki is a presumed Dodger because of their presumed Japanese audience, Koreans track the Giants for Jung Hoo Lee. Buster Posey isn’t getting money from ownership because they’re paying down all those dumb Farhan deals. If Posey can sell 2 million jerseys to Koreans, that tilts the budget a bit.
2-year deal in SF with a vesting option for a 3rd. Lock it in.
I think it’s the Giants but the offer has to appeal to Kim, not just that his best friend plays there.
I’d offer him a 5 year contract, front loaded with an opt out after 2 years.
He gets paid but if his performance diminishes due to injury he stays for the remaining 3 years albeit at a lower salary; if he performs he opts out and SFG gives him the Qualifying offer.
While Kim is convalescing I’d keep Fitzgerald at SS and play the hot hand at Second base; when Kim is healthy put him at 2B for remainder of 2025 so as to protect his arm.
Giants need to make him a 3-4 year offer unless they think Luciano can magically learn to play defense in one offseason (he can’t).
That’s the direction I’d go. Assuming SF is satisfied with the medicals, I’d offer him $20M * years, and deduct off $10M for missing the first three months. $70M in total, and I wouldn’t mind adding a 5th year option based on games played.
IMHO, too many teams play scared and wind up offering one year plus a player option, which almost never works to their advantage. If the medicals check, then you use the injury as leverage.