The Giants expect to reduce player payroll relative to this past season, writes Andrew Baggarly of The Athletic. The extent of the pullback isn’t clear, though the club’s 2024 spending was roughly $20MM higher than it had been in ’23.
That’s mostly a reflection of the late-offseason free agent pickups of Jorge Soler, Matt Chapman and Blake Snell. Cot’s Baseball Contracts calculated San Francisco’s Opening Day payroll this year in the $208MM range. They started the ’23 season with roughly $188MM in spending, Cot’s measured.
The Giants’ competitive balance tax number jumped north of the $237MM base threshold. They’ll pay the luxury tax for the first time in six years. The payment itself should be modest. Cot’s estimates the Giants went around $14MM over the threshold. They’re taxed at a 20% rate on the overage, so they should pay around $2.8MM. (MLB hasn’t released the official CBT calculations to this point.)
While a sub-$3MM tax bill is a drop in the bucket for a team that spent over $200MM on salaries, it comes with ancillary penalties. The Giants would be taxed at a higher rate if they surpass the CBT next season — starting at 30% for the first $20MM in overages with higher penalties beyond that. Luxury tax payors are also subject to bigger penalties for signing a free agent who had declined a qualifying offer from another team. The Giants would surrender $1MM from their international amateur bonus pool and their second- and fifth-highest picks in next year’s draft to add a qualified free agent.
That’s relevant in a winter when the Giants are expected to play for some marquee players. They’re long shots compared to the New York teams in the Juan Soto bidding, but they’re among the best on-paper fits for Willy Adames and Pete Alonso. President of baseball operations Buster Posey is on record about wanting to add a shortstop. Adames is easily the top option at the position. First base isn’t as clear-cut a weakness — especially with top prospect Bryce Eldridge moving quickly through the minors — but Alonso would bring a lot more power than LaMonte Wade Jr. A run at a top-end starting pitcher like Corbin Burnes or Max Fried also isn’t out of the question.
At least one top-of-the-market pursuit should be doable even if ownership wants a notable payroll cut. Some of the spending reduction has already happened. The Giants shed Soler’s salaries at the deadline. Snell and Michael Conforto hit free agency (though they still owe Snell a $17MM signing bonus that’ll be paid in January 2026).
San Francisco has $109.5MM in guaranteed contracts for eight players: Chapman, Robbie Ray, Jung Hoo Lee, Taylor Rogers, Jordan Hicks, Logan Webb, Tom Murphy and Wilmer Flores. MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz projects their four-man arbitration class of Mike Yastrzemski, LaMonte Wade, Tyler Rogers and Camilo Doval to account for roughly $25MM. Rounding out the roster with players on league minimum salaries would push them into the $146MM range. That’d leave them a little more than $60MM shy of last year’s Opening Day payroll and roughly $40MM below their ’23 spending level.
Posey will surely want to reshape the roster after taking over baseball operations once the team fired Farhan Zaidi. All four of the Giants’ arb-eligible players are realistic trade candidates, though they’d be selling low on Doval. A straight non-tender of Yastrzemski isn’t out of the question. San Francisco could welcome a chance to get out from under a portion of Taylor Rogers’ $12MM salary. (They unsuccessfully tried to dump Rogers’ entire contract via waivers in August.) Posey and his staff should have a fair amount of leeway even if they’re not going to run another $200MM+ payroll.
That doesn’t negate the heightened QO penalties. Reluctance about surrendering multiple draft choices for Adames is a potential reason that the Giants are among the early suitors for Ha-Seong Kim, the next-best shortstop available. Snell, Jack Flaherty, Yusei Kikuchi, Jurickson Profar, Nathan Eovaldi, Tyler O’Neill and Gleyber Torres are among the top free agents who did not receive qualifying offers. Soto, Burnes, Fried, Adames, Alonso and Christian Walker are among this year’s 13 QO recipients.
I could see why they want to be just under the CBT threshold to the-set and reload when the Dodgers and Padres are possibly less strong. Sounds like they might go HSK instead of Adames then. Sounds like Buster Posey came to mansplain the scaling back of spending, interesting.
The Dodgers won’t be less strong as long as they have Ohtani. He prints money they can go over and over and it won’t matter. Merch sales alone will cover tax penalty.
Ohtani = Los Angeles Federal Reserve.
Ohtani is huge, maybe the best in the game. But how many World Series did he win for the Angels? It takes many things to go well to win.
The Dodgers don’t need to win the world series every year. Just as long as they are competitive, which they have been for the last decade. While the Angels haven’t made the playoffs in the last decade.
Two completely different franchises.
I completely agree, the Dodgers have been very good since the McCourt era ended. My point is that Ohtani by himself cannot carry a bad team. And if the Giants build their foundation, scouting, drafting, everything from the ground up, they will be ready to pounce. But if I were them I would want to get just under the CBT for 2025. Adding both Soto and Snell would get the Giants past the Dbacks (subject to the Dbacks making their own big FA signings), but not the Dodgers and Padres unless multiple injuries occur.
The words Ohtani and maybe don’t belong in the same room. He is the best player in baseball. Period. Full Stop
Anyone with a differing opinion is wrong. Yes I said it your opinion is wrong if you think he isn’t the best player. Lindor gave him a run in WAR up until the last couple weeks. Without Ohtani pitching or playing defense. Not even close
He led the league in wins above replacement as a DH. He pitches soon. Not even close
and probably blows his arm out for a third and final time.
@MLB The Angels obviously made no World Series with Ohtani. That did not stop him from raking in by far the most endorsement $ the last few seasons there.
You speak as though MLB is not a business first, which it is. And Ohtani is currently the most marketable player in the game and brings in far more revenue then any other player.
But Ohtani wasn’t even the best hitter and that was his only job this year. I’d say it is appropriate to use “maybe” because it certainly isn’t clear. We also don’t have any idea what he’s going to be as a pitcher when he returns.
He definitely belongs in the conversation, however.
I dislike the Dodgers as much as the next Giants fan does but you have to respect their ability to “go to the well” as they seem to be able do so often. As much as we hope that the Giants are becoming a system as opposed to what they have been, we have to grudgingly admit the Dodgers are already there. There are signs the Giants are doing that though. Bailey, Ramos, and Fitzgerald are all Giants system products. When was the last time the Giants system produced 3 quality MLB players in less than 1 season’s time? I bet you’d have to go back to the 70’s.
Lincecum + Sandoval + Bumgarner 2009-2010
+ Posey
Sorry, but Ohtani may have been the best or one of the best batters in 2024, but he was not the best player. He contributed nothing defensively. I’m old school, the best players play both ways; offense and defense. No disrespect to Ohtani, just respect for all the guys who play both ways.
so he’s plays DH and any of the other 10 MLB ready arms take his spot? The Dodgers are playing chess. Everyone else playing checkers.
It’s almost comical that the rhetoric was “winning every year didn’t matter because they’re chokers” and it has quickly changed to “they win so much I hate them” just like that.
MLB Top 100 Commenter — Having Betts and Freeman isn’t exactly chopped liver.
I’d say Betts is the better all around player. And Freddie Freeman’s not too far behind.
Getting carried away with yourself after one World Series win aren’t you?
The lineup is stacked. MVPs @ the top. Lots of great players….
The same number Judge won with the Yankees
So he contributed nothing defensively and had the highest WAR in baseball above those who contributed defensively. Are you making my point or yours?
And if he does he goes 50/50 again like this year like no one else has ever done. Ever. what’s getting missed here?
And if he doesn’t he posts a 10+ WAR. Now that he’s with a grown up team. Yes Angels shot fired. You ruined Trout worse than my Mariners ruined Griffey and that’s a helluva accomplishment.
“reload when the Dodgers and Padres are possibly less strong”
Huh/
LA is a f-ing Winning Machine. Ownership that is absolutely invested in Winning. They will never be ‘less strong’
The amount of money they owe for future players that won’t be around is staggering. The Dodgers will have a nice 5-10 window and then will be sold for the amount of debt owed to past players. They will be in a financial bind when paying all these deferred contracts and trying to keep a competitive team on the field.
86 bro…..
Yes because 88 until 2020 was so different.
Some day….
Watching the Freeman granny on loop….
Mansplain the Chapman contract. Thanks.
Not sure why so much hate for the Chapman contract. It was a proper market deal for his skill set at the time. You can’t sign a guy worried about what he’s gonna do at the end. It sounds logical sure but that’s just not how that works. Players his age you want 3 productive years out of it then ship him with a prospect to someone to pay for it. Here’s the rub. In 3 years this could be a very appealing contract with the market moving north. If he slows a step DH him if he falls off the cliff trade like above (see Cano, Robinson) if he’s productive enjoy a great contract. 2 out of the 3 of those options (DH, productive) aren’t bad and the third (trade) is the price of doing business but you got 3 productive years
Think positively, it could be Rendon…. lol
Other than playing everyday and playing superb defense, Chapman offers not much at the plate. I’ve never seen a hitter swing and miss so much at fastballs down the middle. But he goes on streaks and can help any team. The contract is ridiculous but always keep in mind with all of these deals…., its not our money
bucsfan0004 — As a Giants fan that’s what I thought when they signed Chapman. But watching him everyday this past season, he’s worth every dollar in the new contract.
Take a look at his batting line (with no protection mind you). Chapman is a complete player and even if he tails off at the plate, he’s going to contribute mightily with that glove and arm. The guy is a virtuoso.
Absolutely correct Pete’sView. Watching him daily is the only way to appreciate just how much value he has as an all around player. Perfect fit for this team and has become a clubhouse leader. He’s a complete pro who also loves being here. I watched the defensive wizardry of Brandon Crawford for years and Matt Chapman is even better. After watching him for a full season now I’m ecstatic they extended him. Great move by the Giants.
@bucsfan0004
“always keep in mind with all of these deals…., its not our money”
Some of it is… those ticket prices keep going up.
I don’t necessarily think the Chapman deal is bad, but I’m nervous about it because of how it got done.
Obviously teams have alot more data on players, and some very smart people to look at said data.
Farhan had his flaws, but for Posey to do an end around him and his staff to sign him makes me nervous about how much input he got from the people they pay to do valuations/risk management/etc.
Posey also was a big proponent of the nixed Correa deal which would already be looking like a disaster. He was so upset they didn’t get it across the finish line that he went crying to the media. Dude just seems like the type of know it all baseball guy that went extinct for a reason
Giants can’t afford to miss out on Adames, even with the QO. He fills so many needs for SF which Kim does not.
Adding Adames, Goldschmidt (to platoon with Wade till Eldridge arrives) and another solid starter (Sasaki?) makes the Giants much stronger than they were in 2024. Still behind the Pads probably, but if SF’s young pitchers continue to grow, the Giants could be in the 88-89 wins territory.
Serious question here because I don’t see either one enough to know. If healthy how does Kim’s glove compare to Adames? Also has Goldschmidt’s glove also declined in the last year or two?
Up until 2024, their glove work was fairly equal, but Adames had a statistically, very poor, 2024 . No one knows if this was some sort of anomaly or not.
Goldschmidt hasn’t been the fielder he was in 2015-17, when he was exceptional, for awhile. He’s not a bad fielder now, about average to maybe slightly below.
Thanks Jean
You’re not getting Goldschmidt my Mariners are so he can hit .208 and end his career in flames.
Giants are at $174 million in CBT payroll. They could spend $66 million this offseason and still be under the CBT threshold and $10 million under 2024. The question is how much do they want to cut payroll?
So much for them chasing Soto!!!
Wouldn’t it be interesting if about 25 teams, cut back on salary. I’d love to see it.
Why? What’s it to you?
Dogbone, you know those cuts wouldn’t reduce ticket prices, right?
LAD, NYY, NYM all likely to meet or beat any outsized offer the Giants could come up with. And Soto doesn’t want to spend the rest of his career hitting at Oracle Park, so it’s possible that none of those teams would even have to entirely match a hypothetical Giants offer anyway.
Even another spending spree in SF was never going to net them Soto.
Hard pass on Soto and his fake birth certificate. Stay clear of that bidding and get Kim AND Adames wrapped up quickly.
so they can play SS simultaneously?
Kim is unnecessary.
Ever heard of second base ?
Kim got gglove for utility. 2nd andshortstop
Kim won’t play until June or July. Adames will cost $30 million AAV because he is the only healthy SS on the market. He is a 3 WAR player and is also from the Dominican Republic so if Soto;s birth certificate is suspect, so is Adames’. $30 milloin for 3 WAR or $43 million AAV for 7 WAR.
goob — With the revised fences Oracle Park plays pretty neutral and plenty of hitters have thrived there (some, unfortunately, from other teams).
Thanks Pete. You got me wondering about about Soto’s HR pattern, so I looked it up. I saw that only 28% of his dingers have been hit to his pull side (where the right-field “fence” remains a challenge to all HR hitters, of course). So he might not be as relatively-disadvantaged at Oracle as I’d assumed.
I still don’t imagine he’d give the Giants serious consideration though, and now it appears to be kind of a moot point.
Giants park is 26th in MLB. a pitcher’s haven.
baseballsavant.mlb.com/leaderboard/statcast-park-f…
Soto is lost as a defensive outfielder, let alone right field at Oracle. Giants wouldn’t be able to outbid aforementioned teams anyway. That said his bat would have been amazing with all of the gaps/triples alley at Oracle Park.
San Francisco Giants ownership has taken a once proud successful franchise and ran it into the ground.
Only 1 winning season since 2016. They fire Frahan Zaidi and they’re best idea is to hire an ex MLB catcher with zero experience running an organization. A fan favorite who will be void of criticism and media accountability……And now they are cutting payroll.
This franchise is screwed for the next 5 years
Another TonyGwynnSD619/27champyankees/TheBull alt?
Pretty sure another team in the Bay Area hired a GM with zero experience and they’ve been to the Super Bowl 2 times since he took over so… Give the dude a chance
Giants’ ownership probably wants to go a completely different direction after watching Zaidi fail miserably the past few years
Giants main goal this off season should be to trade Logan Webb to the Braves
Why specifically the Braves?
Because he’s a Braves fan.
metsin4, Wrong. Webb grew up in Rocklin, CA, near Sacramento, and rooted for both the Giants and the A’s, but was actually more of a fan of the A’s fan than the Giants.
metsin4, Ignore my previous post. I read yours as saying Webb was a Braves’ fan. Obviously you meant @TradeAcuna.
What players do you think Giants should get in exchange?
Anybody other than SS and Baldwin.
TradeAcuna — That’d be a stunner and probably only in your dreams.
He dreams of Orange
The Giants are trying to play moneyball with a twist—keeping enough cash in their pockets to buy coffee for the entire front office while still pretending to be in on Juan Soto.
I think you’re wishful-thinking there PJ. But if that’s what you really believe, I think you’re going to be in for a surprise, if not this year, then a whole lot sooner than 5 years from now. Cheers.
Buster Posey President of Baseball Operations?
I’ve never seen a more brazen PR move by a team. Dude was a great player. But in way over his head. Competing on the field and competing and 29 other MLB POBs is a whole other world.
Stearns, Friedman, Dombrowski, Neander, Cashman are gonna slaughter Posey.
But Don’t tell Giants fans this. They live in this insular bay area bubble and are terribly low information baseball fans. They’ll defend ownerships wildly stupid decision to hire Posey and ride this thing till they burn it to the ground.
so spend spend spend? Is that over your head? Get a clue
You’ve never seen a more brazen PR move? Aaron Boone is a manager because of one home run he hit.
And there are a number of ex-players who are front office guys (Fuld, Young, Breslow, etc.). Posey’s a smart guy, let’s see what he can do, He can’t do worse than Farhan.
Stanford, Princeton, Yale. Not sure FSU is in the same category.
Zaidi’s overall win-loss couldn’t have anything to do with fact that payroll was cut from 3-4th in MLB to 12-18th and was never higher than 8th could it ?
107 wins in Zaidi’s 3rd season is a Giants franchise record, right?
Posey locked down Chapman when Zaidi couldn’t get it done.
It would be more accurate to say Posey locked down Chapman based on essentially gut feel at a number higher than Zaidi and a team of IVY league graduates thought prudent.
Posey also went crying to the media when the Correa deal fell apart. This could Tony LaRusa diamondbacks tenure bad.
I don’t know why SF spent so much money on Chapman.
He is getting older and his defense will decline and he has had back/hip problems.
I’m confused! they should have fired Farhan 2 years ago. they failed! then at Posey’s press introduction Johnson junior stated that they will spend even going over the luxury tax. then Posey states how he wants to bring the giants back to the glory days. that will cost money! now they need to scale back payroll. what a ******* circus! Johnson’s need to sell the team!
The Johnson’s are not only bad for the country, they’re awful for the Giants.
The level of Giants hating on this site is truly fascinating. It’s almost contagious.
The Giants deserve the hate for the past 5-6 years of lousy baseball and lousy front office decisions. The prevent offense.
Most sane people would give Posey a chance before the stupid comments, but mlbtr baseball experts need to assert themselves.
I’d be willing to give Posey some time if he didn’t undercut Farhan at every turn. In no functional organization is anyone signing a massive extension without heavy input from the POBO. That is next level hubris.
‘Scale back payroll’ = no one wants to play for us cause of the SHole city we play in.
Old narrative, half the big city’s are full of crime and homeless people. You’d see how nice most of the city is if you actually go there
I guess the Mariners are history because Seattle is much worse a city than SF is. And Los Angeles along with SD have the same troubles SF has. You’re right about “old Narrative” but it’s convenient for Giant’s haters
And “The McNasty1” repeats the same uneducated drivel post after post.
I don’t recall a WR getting shot in a robbery attempt happening in my Seattle but ok we’re worse than Frisco. And god speed Ricky Pearsall congrats on your first NFL TD. Seattle fans can appreciate the opponent. So much worse than SF lol
Yeah, this is the narrative coming from those living in the middle of nowhere; i.e., the exurbs or beyond. Hillbillies and rubes who have never stepped foot in a city, much less lived in one.
McNasty has never left mom’s basement. She has the forever plan for his cellphone.
Giants have some nice pieces, Ramos and Eldridge could be nice and Wade Jr. .380 OBP plays well at the top, Harrison and Webb are nice at the top of the rotation and the bullpen has some nice arms. But the Dodgers and Padres are all in every season, and the Giants are developing talent, they will need to keep their strong rotational pieces and hope one or two starters on the farm develop. Resigning Conforto would be big. Luciano still has upside, and their catcher is a first round pick too. Bottom of the order is where they need to pick up some pieces, hitting at the bottom of the order has become one of the biggest areas where a team can put together a competitive advantage in my opinion.
Not if you consider resigning Conforto.
Giants, just do something !!!
I don’t get why exposing this is good for any team. Keep this to yourself within your organization. What player would want to join a team that’s states this somebody?!
The qualifying penalties are harsh. Stay under the tax threshold and build from within. Pitching and defense with that park. Still $ for good free agents
No on Conforto.
I like Conforto’s lefty bat and potential for modest improvement in both his power numbers and his .OBP, problem is that some team will over pay for it but at the right price he is exactly the kind of player you’d like to have in the seven hole if you can sign him for say 2 and 15M.
I have no idea what you see in Conforto. The Giants paid him $36M for 2 seasons that were only 8% better than league average. With the Giants wanting/needing to reduce salary, he’s the first guy they should let walk.
Yaz was 12% better than league average over the last 2 seasons, and more consistent, for $22M less. And even he’s being debated as being non-tendered to save salary. They can find the level of production they got from Conforto for a lot less.
Jean Matrac — Of course the Giants aren’t resigning Conforto for all the reasons you stated. A waste of money.
Biggest problem with Conforto is injuries. When he was in the lineup he was a pretty good bat. I think with the outfielders already on the roster there might not be room for him next year.
I’m with Jean on this.
Conforto is in decline, not great in the field and usually displays warning track power. His hot streaks were good, but not enough to have him in future plans. Grant McCray looks to be a better plan unless a better bat is added.
mab51357 — Conforto is awful. Haven’t you watched him the past two years.?And it isn’t injuries.
Hi Pete’sView. Wasn’t advocating for Giants keeping Conforto at all. I’ve watched all but a handful of Giants games for years. Conforto is very streaky and it seemed like everytime he would start a warm streak he would pull some damn muscle, hammy or the like. He’s never been a steady lineup piece. As far as his defense goes, I know the numbers are probably not good but if you compare this year with last year I think he looked a lot better this year. Doesn’t mean I think his defense is good but relative to him last year it was passable. He’d probably make some team a decent DH platoon. Take care.
So the Giants will not contend if they don’t spend money.
With the A’s leaving, it makes sense the Giants have a window to tear down and rebuild. There is no core to build around to go “all in”.
I had them as a dark horse for Soto last year since they missed out on Correa and Judge so I guess they’ll be out of play for him.
Please.
The Giants should trade for Javy Baez to play SS. Wouldn’t cost them much, could probably get Baez and a prospect for a box of chocolates.
Nope. Maybe a full cat box, but there would not be chocolate in it.
The Tigers would take that.
LeylandsLung — Why in hell would you want Baez on your team . . . and at that cost? The Giants already strikeout too much.
LeylandsLung, You’ve got to be a Tigers fan. Sorry, but it’s highly doubtful that they’ll find any team to take Baez off their hands. He’s owed $73M, and all the Tigers have gotten from him so far is production 29% below league average. Teams are too smart to repeat an obvious mistake like that.
I thought that the fact of my fandom was pretty obvious. lol
Yes, it is. I just copy pasted. I think I might have missed the sarcasm as well.
Not Baez. Horrible player and very toxic to a team. I guarantee he’s not someone Posey would want.
Perhaps a deal for Robbie Ray might get the Giants Javier Baez. The Tigers will likely just keep him on the bench.
So if the Giants are still going to penny pinch and not try to sign any major players then why fire Farhan Zaidi( not that I was a fan of his and I am glad he is gone) Zaidi did get lucky with some players. Posey don’t really need Juan Soto but some decent pitchers and above average players would be good. I understand the park is for pitchers but at least bring in the fences 10-15 feet.
Also tell the city to clean up the area around the park or start looking elsewhere to play.
Spoken like someone who hasn’t been to San Francisco recently if ever.It’s really nice by the stadium now, a lot of new finished construction, Chase Center right down the street, hotels, restaurants, bars, etc. Maybe take a little trip and see for yourself.
atuck_sfg, Yup. Clearly @Breck68 has zero knowledge of what he’s talking about. The obvious big mistake is his point about them moving if the city doesn’t clean up the area around the park. He’s totally clueless to the facts that, one. it’s a developed area with million dollar condos, and an active street life with bars and restaurants, and two, that the team owns the stadium outright, which is a huge cash cow. And it’s not only the stadium, but a lot of the area around the park that is owned by the Giants and has been developed by them, creating even more revenue. There is zero chance the team would even threaten to play elsewhere let alone actually do that.
As someone who lives in the East Bay for 40+ years, you are correct. They cleaned up Mission Bay. Looks like downtown Walnut Creek. However, go to Powell Street and further down, you are incorrect. It’s a urinal
BREAKING: MAJOR U.S. CITY HAS GOOD NEIGHBORHOODS AND BAD NEIGHBORHOODS. MORE AT 11
Interesting and good info to have for the free agent contest, though as always it may not end up 100% on the…erm…money.
San Francisco is a shithole.
San Franshitshow. Ahahahaha!
shaft — You have no freakin’ idea what you are talking about. It only makes your posts sound uneducated.
Good morning Mr. T rump.
The most realistic scenario, truth be told. This is not a team that warrants becoming a repeat tax offender. I think it’s also an acknowledgement that Soto was never going to sign here…not that this team is one player away from contending…and more of a focus on building a solid team. First need is a SS and I could see them going for Kim over Adames if the docs think the shoulder is ok. I could see them trading a couple of young arms for a power bat, like Josh Naylor. And then spend the rest on a front line SP, whether Snell or someone at that level. There are ways to get better and stay within a budget.
I’ve never thought that it was realistic for Soto to sign with the Giants. They get mentioned as a dark horse, but only because they’re one of the wealthiest clubs in MLB.
If they could sign him though, they should. I don’t think the argument that they aren’t one player away is a good reason. They aren’t, but that’s irrelevant. Soto is a generational talent that will probably sign for a minimum of 13 years. he should be highly productive for 8-10 years. He isn’t going to win any team more than one player away a WS, but might in the next few years.
I still prefer Adames due to the better bat and Kim’s health. I think it’s possible they could sign Adames and still reduce payroll.
I like Josh Naylor, but a couple of young pitchers for one season of him would be a huge overpay. I’d say one pitching prospect not in their top 10.
Yeah Jean, I was thinking someone in the Mason Black/Trevor McDonald range.
Soto could be productive for 4-6 years since he is probably older than he states. Naylor is terribly over weight and Adames doesn’t want to play SS. They need a starter and a rh slugging OF.
Non Roster Invitee, I think you’re off base assuming Soto is older than he says. Sure it happened a lot in the past, and continues now occasionally. But when was the last time a player of the stature of Soto proved to be older than reported? Teams got a lot wiser about the practice when it happened in the past. No team is going to offer $550M -$600M, or more, without knowing for sure what his true age is.
And Adames never said he didn’t want to play SS. You’ve misconstrued what he said. Just like Bregman saying he was willing to move off 3B, Adames and him are simply selling themselves to teams on positional flexibility. It potentially opens their market to more bidders who have no need for a SS, or 3B, but could upgrade at 2B.
Plus why bring in a tank like Naylor and at that cost, whatever it will be? Especially with Eldridge on his way.
Because if I can get a 30HR, 100RBI hitter for a mid-level prospect or two I’d do it every time, even for a rental. Have him DH and hit cleanup. Makes more sense to me than counting on a barely 20yr old with a year and a half of pro ball to carry the club. Don’t think rushing the kid is a good idea.
There are a several things I I like about Naylor. He has power and would hit probably 25 HRs at Oracle. With only one year of control his value isn’t high, and could be acquired at a reasonable cost. He could be flipped at the dead line. And he’s a FA at the end of the year, so he wouldn’t block Eldridge.
The only thing I don’t like is that he’s a LHH so there would be no platoon with Wade at 1B. But he could be slotted in at DH.
I don’t love it, but I’d like Naylor a lot more than I would Alonso. The Giants would pay out the nose for Alonso, and be stuck with him for multiple years, and he would block Eldridge.
Headline: “GIANTS PLAN TO SCALE BACK PAYROLL!”
Article: “HERE’S ALL THE FREE AGENTS THE GIANTS MIGHT BE INTERESTED IN!”
Which is it, man???
Dog one
Unilateral disarmament rarely is effective
“cutting back” when the team was nearly $20 mil above the tax threshold, and finished under 500, makes sense. “cutting back” does not mean they’re not going to spend. It sounds to me there’s going to $spent but not exorbitant $ spent. So many of you posters need to calm down. Don’t expect a Snell signing. But maybe a Flaherty and or a Buehler or bieber. No Adames either or any other QO player. With Sasaki becoming available, and international pool $ getting taken away by signing a QO player, it’s too risky. They lost 2 picks last year and $500k by signing 2 QO players (Snell Chapman). Signing one because they exceeded the tax threshold last year will this year cost $1mil and 2 picks. Signing a 2nd QO player would cost another 2 picks. Posey and Giants only want to be more judicious IMO. For God sakes, they’re not planning to bail on spending like many doomsayers are saying with these posts. Everyone, take a breath and calm down.
My wish list (who cares, right?)
Kim
one of Flaherty, bieber, buehler, eovaldi
goldschmidt
tanner scott
tyler oneill or profar
or try to trade for an outfielder
If there are takers, try to trade Murphy, taylor/tyler rogers, Luciano, Matos, Ragsdale or whisenhunt,
Here are Trade Rumors projected salaries
Flaherty $23mil
Scott $14
Profar $15
Eovaldi $22
Oneill $14
Goldscmodt $15
Buehler $15
Kim$12
Bieber $12
Sugano $12
So let’s take Kim @12. goldschmidt@15
oneill or profar @14.5
scott@14 and bieber or sugano @12. Total is $67 mil. Sign Sasaki for about $8mil and the Venezuelan shortstop number 1 ranked international player. Both should be gettable this signing period (ends Dec 15) and/next signing period (Jan15 2025 to Dec15 2025). Spotrac says they have $70+ available to stay under threshold. Prudent yet not exorbitant. Anyone please comment to say if my numbers or players make sense.
CLAUDE — I know you’re a Giants fan like me, but some of your GM takes scare me.
Let’s go Adames, Goldschmidt, Sasaki (or Bieber/Eovaldi).
The minute you sign Profar he’ll turn into a pumpkin, a mushy one. Let the Pads hold on to him.
I don’t think the Padres are going to let Profar go but if he does leave, whoever he signs with is not getting near the player he’s been with the Padres. He’s a great fit with the Padres so I doubt he goes anywhere.
@claude “Goldscmodt” Excellent typo! Tricky to pronounce, though.
my bad, the shortstop is Dominican. Josuar de Jesus Gonzalez (Dominican Republic). Giants are favored to sign him 1.15.25. He’s the number one rated international prospect
Sure, but he’s years away from the bigs.
My reason for mentioning the Dominican is to point out the need to save pool money. Signing Adames and/or other QO players costs pool money. They need to protect that $
Claude, I have to disagree on some of the guys on your wish list, and some of those you suggest for trade.
Flaherty scares me; a potential landmine given the years he’ll want.
Big no on Goldschmidt. I was a huge fan, but he isn’t anywhere near the guy he was. His numbers have declined for 2 straight seasons. Going into his age 37 season, it’s likely that time is catching up. I think hoping for a bounce back from just a down season is hoping against logic.
Another big no on O’Neil. I don’t understand what people see in him. He’s a total trick or treat player. He’s wildly inconsistent, often injured. and only a so-so fielder. He strikes out a lot. He Ks in nearly 1/3 of his ABs, while his walk rate is only slightly above average. In his 7 seasons all he’s been able to accrue is 12.6 bWAR.
And I wouldn’t sell low on Matos, Luciano, or Whisenhunt. Matos was a 55 FV, and Whisenhunt is a 50 FV. Due to his injury we haven’t yet seen what Whisenhunt brings. Plus I wouldn’t trade any pitching. Matos and Luciano are 2 years younger than Ramos. Two years ago, a lot of people thought Ramos was a bust and that they should move on from him.
Do you think that signing Sugano would help getting Sasaki? Japanese players like having familiar faces around
claude, Signing Sugano might help signing Sasaki, but then it might not. Some Japanese players don’t want to go to a team with other Japanese players. Some want to be the first and not be overshadowed by another guy. Not that Sugano would overshadow Sasaki.
Plus IIRC Sugano is at least 10 years older than Sasaki. That means nothing of course. It all depends on how Sasaki personally feels about Sugano. Maybe he was ome of his heroes, and maybe he’s ambivalent about him. They played for different teams.
I wouldn’t mind them signing Sugano even if it didn’t help with Sasaki. He won’t be expensive, and there won’t be a lot of years on the deal, so it should be somewhat low risk.
They might try to dump some bad players they’re paying and then go spend money on hopefully better players. Only way I see them cutting back the payroll and still giving off the illusion that they’re a contender.
How do they “dump” bad players? If they don’t want them who will? The players I listed as trade candidates are desirable by other teams. What “illusion” are you referring to? Do you really think that Posey et al are simply trying to fool you? But again, you’re one of these posters that thinks if you don’t want a player, you just “dump” them. And money gained.
Giants can move Yaz, Wade, Murphy, Matos, Doval, Black, Luciano. Not saying they should rid themselves of all of them, but they all have some value. I’d wager some are not on next year’s Giants.
In absolutely unrelated news the team across the Bay moved to Sacramento.
Watching the Giants lose @ Oracle while devouring multi Crazy Crab’z sandwiches is epic….
Giants need to blow it up; there is no point in challenging the Dodgers.
In case you hadn’t noticed, teams are moving away from the “blow it up” and tank, rebuild model. Doing that means too many seasons at the bottom of the standings with the draft lottery removing the guarantee of a top pick.
The Giants are a young team with some promising youngsters. Sure they aren’t challenging the Dodgers now, but the Dodgers aren’t going to be perennial contenders forever. What if they lose Teoscar to free-agency this year, or Tommy Edman next? How good is Freeman going to be in his age 36, 37 seasons? Pages, and Outman are nice young players, but are they enough going forward? Is an OF of them and Chris Taylor that scary to other teams?
Right now they’re top of the mountain, like the Braves were two years ago. But fans forget that change can happen quickly. Look at the WS finalists from last season; neither team even made the postseason. What were the preseason predictions for the Royals, Phillies, and Met’s? A lot of fans think that the way things are today is exactly how things will be, and they’re usually wrong.
New list. First, no QO players. Sorry Adames. Must leave bonus pool alone. Get Sugano and hope for Sasaki. Get Goldschmidt. Loves hitting at Oracle and the former gglover can mentor Eldridge. If profar oneill doesn’t move the needle, trade for Robert. Doval, Luciano, Matos and Whisenhunt or Ragsdale. Wade also.Yaz maybe in trade for Robert. Lefty reliever. Scott or Yates. Kim. Gglove, speed, high on base. Power outfielder? Hmm. Not Santander. Bad glove and QO. Trade then is a must because all of the Profar Oneill critics have me convinced. Kim, Sugano/Bieber, Goldscmidt, Scott/Yates, Sasaki (pipedream?) and OF in a trade.
claude, I’m sorry but I absolutely hate your new list. Sasaki is a long shot to begin with. $500K is not going to be the difference between getting Sasaki or not. Betting on a more sure thing like Adames, even with the QO, is better than simply hoping against odds that they get Sasaki,
I think Goldschmidt is showing age-related decline. Last season he had a 98 OPS+, a bWAR of 1.3 and an oWAR also of 1.3. Wade had an OPS+ of 122, a bWAR of 2.1, and an oWAR of 2.0. Why in the world would you want a 37 year old Goldschmidt over Wade on the hope that he’ll be the same player he was in 2022?
And you’re severely underrating the value of team control. Trading Doval, Matos, Luciano, and Whisenhunt for Luis Robert is trading 20 years of team control for 2 of Robert. That’s a huge overpay. And what if Matos breaks out this season or next? With his tools he has a chance to be better than Ramos. Robert had an 87 OPS+ last season. No way I’d trade those guys for Robert.
Unlike your O’Neil idea, I actually don’t mind your Profar suggestion. Everyone is looking at his career. But he’s not the same player since he revamped his swing. He could be productive, but I’d be wary of the number of years.
$500k? It’s $1mil. Sasaki is a goal and the Dominican is too. Spend spend spend. Doesnt work. Adames isn’t the future. Posey isn’t planning to ruin the future.
You’re right, it is $1M, but the point stands. Every team is limited to what they can offer. No matter where Sasaki signs, it won’t be a big money deal. Just like Ohtani, his decision will be based on the team, and where he wants to play, not the money. If he signs with SF, it will be because they were able to convince that it’s the best place for him, not an extra $1M on the offer.
The greatest need is SS. Adames is the best SS available. Spending doesn’t work? Tell that to the Dodgers. Not spending doesn’t work either. A balance between home grown players and FAs is what does work.
How can you say you want to drop salary than claim to be a player on all the top free agents?
No.