TODAY: The Yankees’ deadline to decide on Cole is 4pm CT on Monday, according to MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand (X link). The New York Post’s Jon Heyman reported earlier today that the deadline was on Monday, rather than tonight.
NOVEMBER 2: Right-hander Gerrit Cole has triggered the opt-out in his deal with the Yankees, per Kiley McDaniel and Jeff Passan of ESPN on X. However, he is not yet a free agent, as the club has a chance to void the opt-out by tacking on an extra year at the same $36MM salary as the rest of the contract.
Cole’s original deal with the Yanks was for $324MM over nine years with even salaries of $36MM in each season, starting in 2020. Per that deal, he could opt out after five years, walking away from the final four years and $144MM. The Yanks could then tack on another $36MM for 2029 and negate the opt-out. Now that Cole has triggered his opt-out, the Yankees now have to effectively decide if they want Cole back for $180MM over the next five years. If not, Cole will return to free agency.
For the first few years of the contract, Cole continued to pitch to his usual excellent standards. From 2020 through 2023, he tossed 664 innings, allowing 3.08 earned runs per nine. He struck out 31.1% of batters faced, limited walks to a 5.9% clip and got grounders at a 41.1% clip. He racked up 15.4 wins above replacement in that time, per the calculations of FanGraphs, fifth in the majors behind Zack Wheeler, Corbin Burnes, Kevin Gausman and Aaron Nola. He won the American League Cy Young last year by posting a 2.63 ERA over 209 innings.
Throughout that time, it seemed quite obvious how the contract situation would play out. Cole would make the no-brainer decision to trigger his opt-out while the Yanks would make the equally-easy decision to add on the extra year, bringing their total commitment to $360MM over 10 years.
But the road ahead became a little less certain as things developed in 2024. Cole dealt with some elbow inflammation during spring training and was shut down for a while. No structural damage was found but he was sent to the 60-day injured list as he underwent his non-surgical rehab. He was eventually able to get back on the mound, making his season debut in the middle of June.
He was a little shaky at first, with a 6.75 ERA through his first four starts, but his numbers were far more Cole-like from there. He posted a 2.67 ERA in his final 13 starts of the year. His 25.7% strikeout rate wasn’t quite all the way back to his usual level but his 6.8% walk rate was still quite strong. He made another five postseason starts with a 2.17 ERA, helping the Yanks reach their first World Series since 2009.
While Cole has seemed like his old self for months, the Yanks may still have to think about this one. As seen in MLBTR’s Contract Tracker, the largest deal for a pitcher aged 34 or older was the five years and $185MM that the Rangers gave to Jacob deGrom. That deal hasn’t gone well so far, as deGrom required Tommy John surgery and hardly pitched for the Rangers in the first two years of that pact. The Yankees would have to essentially match that deal to prevent Cole from getting away. As mentioned, tacking on the extra year would mean committing to paying Cole $180MM over the next five years, just shy of the deGrom deal.
Cole’s record of durability is far better than deGrom’s. Cole has thrown almost 2,000 innings to this point in his career while deGrom was just over 1300 when he signed with Texas. Still, Cole is just recovered from a notable absence related to his throwing elbow. Most of the other pitchers in this age bracket signed shorter deals with higher average annual values, with Wheeler’s recent extension with the Phillies coming in at $126MM over three years. Max Scherzer’s deal with the Mets was $130MM over three, though he was a few years older, starting that deal at age-37.
The Yankees are facing the prospect of Juan Soto hitting free agency and Cole is potentially a second superstar departure. Some have argued that the Soto situation should motivate the Yanks to keep Cole, just to stave of that possibility of losing two stars on the heels of a frustrating World Series loss. On the other hand, some have suggested that the Yanks might welcome having an extra $36MM of payroll space to use on luring Soto back to the Bronx.
The latter line of thinking would leave a big hole in the rotation, but it wouldn’t be an awful group without Cole. The projected rotation would still include Carlos Rodón, Luis Gil, Clarke Schmidt, Nestor Cortes and Marcus Stroman. If the Yanks let Cole go, they could focus on Soto and circle back to him later or pursue some other starting pitchers. They had reported interest in Blake Snell last winter and he is opting out of his deal, becoming a free agent again. The market will also feature Burnes, Jack Flaherty, Max Fried and plenty of others. Garrett Crochet, Erick Fedde and dozens of other could be available in trade.
It’s one of the more interesting decisions of the offseason. Most free agent contracts bring back the best returns in the early years and get more painful as the deals go along. The Yankees have a chance to walk away after the best years and perhaps avoid the downside. But doing so would mean letting one of the best pitchers in the league slip through their fingers. They have until Sunday evening to decide, per Bob Nightengale of USA Today on X.
Honestly? Let him walk. Go after Burnes.
Sometimes you have to let the bigman go away. When Cannibal Corpse kicked out Chris Barnes and replaced him they never looked back while Barnes became a living meme.
Sweet – Agreed! Cole has proven to not be a big game pitcher.
He should make a new sign:
“Yankee pitcher who can’t be bothered to cover first base
Today
Tomorrow
Forever”
@Fever That’s beautiful baby, beautiful, f#€\ Cole!!
Better yet:
YANKEE FAN TODAY TOMORROW FOREVER
(AS LONG AS YOU GIVE ME ANOTHER 36 MILLION DOLLARS)
I think it’s a little unfair to single out Cole for that one mistake. Yes, it was a huge mistake, but his defense had already given the Dodgers two extra outs. If Volpe OR Judge makes their play, then Cole strikes out Ohtani to end the inning and the narrative is very different.
He also went two solid innings after the 5th to keep the Yankees in the game.
As a Dodger fan, I’ll admit that I literally laughed out loud with joy and relief when Mookie reached first. The Yankees also might be wise to let Cole walk. But putting that 5th-inning collapse all on Cole is a bit harsh.
what was he (not) thinking! no runs in until that gaffe and in the world series! an albatross upon him forever…
Fever, you’re better than that. Despite the huge error, tell me if he becomes a free agent, you wouldn’t want him anchoring the Sox in 25.
Weller – Who gave up the 2-run hit to Freeman that same inning? And the 2-run hit to Teoscar?
Dewey – Not for the money he wants. He often melts down, you saw that in the Devers IBB game. He’s not a big game pitcher. I’ve repeatedly stated he’s very good though, what more do you want?
1 run in 12 1/3 vs Dodgers sounds like a big game pitcher go me, Burnes is younger and will get more than $180, so no bargain there.
Depending on other moves Fever, I’d love to have Cole. Not many in today’s game can stay healthy and be that guy who delivers every time. After these last few years, I just want a chance to compete again. Hoping 25 is at least another 16. Obviously, I want more than a quick loss but Sox fans first should want to get to the playoffs in consecutive seasons again. 21 seemed great but given the limit Henry put on the resources, they never had a shot and 21 was just a fluke.
Dewey – You have no concerns about Cole’s health after he missed half the season?
Win or lose, these players get their money. Have u not learned anything?
@Mad Hatter thanks for being reasonable. 5 years for 180 million is a steal for Cole. If one play decides a player’s career then Barry Bonds would’ve been run out of MLB in 1993 for not being able to throw out Sid Bream. Cole’s K/BB ratio is worth 3 years and 120 million alone
Fever, it depends on the medicals and price. He looked very good once he got some mound visits under his belt. If it was something obvious, he would not have opted out. Too much guaranteed money.
Be he hasn’t stayed healthy nor delivered every time.
Fever pitch guy,
Proven not to be a big game pitcher?
Cole has a 2.77 ERA in 22 postseason starts, with a 1.02 WHIP and 10.5 k/9.
A 2.36 ERA in four WS starts, averaging 6.5 innings pitched in those starts.
What a ridiculous take.
Or if Jazz had the ability to pick the throw from Volpe.
The entire Yankee team, including the coaches had an uncharacteristically (for historical Yankee teams) fundamentally poor series.
Every team will be in on Gerrit Cole.
Bill Buckner enters the chat…
Right, he was great all postseason outside that one missed play at 1B.
old – Rather than follow baseball just through FG and BR, how about actually WATCHING the games and learning.
You think ERA is the one true indicator of greatness?
In Game 5 of the freakin’ World Series Mr. Cole not only committed a lazy mental error that extended the inning and cost a run, he then gave up consecutive 2-run hits. So instead of protecting a 5-run lead he let the opponent tie the game.
But you wouldn’t know that because all you saw was a box score which reflects problematic scoring flaws with today’s game.
Cole made the costly error even though it wasn’t scored as such. And the archaic flawed scoring rule of classifying all runs scored after 2 outs as “unearned” just because of an early inning error is not reflective of the pitcher’s meltdown.
How is it logical that all 5 runs are “unearned” when only two of the runners reached based on an error?
How is it logical that conceivably a pitcher could give up 10 consecutive homeruns with 2 outs in an inning, but none of them are scored as Earned because there was one error committed earlier in the inning?
This is why you need to actually watch the games and engage in critical thinking.
jimmy – Off the top of my head it’s not just the Game 5 meltdown, which BTW was actually three plays when you include the two 2-run hits that followed.
There’s the 2021 ALWC in which Cole didn’t last more than 2 innings.
There’s the meltdown in the 2022 ALCS Game 3 against the Astros.
There’s the meltdown in his last game against Boston when he decided he can’t get Devers out so he hit him in the first PA and then IBB him in his 2nd PA despite not having anyone on base. Cole was universally criticized for his behavior in that game.
And oh yeah, 5.23 ERA in 19 career regular season starts against the Red Sox. Not the type of numbers you want from your ace pitcher against your bitter divisional rival.
dewey – Remember, his agent is Boras.
We will find out today if the Yanks decide to void the opt-out.
Idk how gerrit cole isn’t a big game pitcher
He has great stats in the regular season and postseason, 2019 postseason cole was magical
I get it he choked on the first base in the WS but it’s not like he’s in the WS every year and chokes every year
He was thinking that Rizzo was 3 steps ahead of him to the bag and the glove up in the air meant he was going to get it.
His defense had already given up 2 easy outs and cole was not the reason for the runs being scored. That was 100% on the lack of defensive support.
sad – Perhaps it’s because some people here have lowered the bar so much with “he’s excellent, and he’s excellent, everyone is excellent” but if you watch the games or even just look at the game logs you will see Cole is not a big game pitcher and in the 2019 postseason he was not “magical”. Really he’s basically David Price, a very good regular season pitcher who was mentally soft and was not good in big games until 2018, his last full season as a MLB starter.
Here’s a great source so you can see what we are talking about with Cole:
baseball-reference.com/players/gl.fcgi?id=colege01…
I’ve already given several specific examples of Cole’s big game failures INCLUDING his meltdown in Game 1 of the 2019 WS.
Pads – When you get a chance please watch Game 5, the box score you are looking at doesn’t give an accurate picture.
Cole gave up all 5 runs himself. He failed to cover first base on a ground ball, and he gave up back-to-back 2-run hits. Three consecutive hitters, 5 runs, all on Cole.
And the ground ball to Volpe was not an “easy” play. What you won’t find in the box score is Kike got such a great jump that he was directly between Volpe and 3B when Volpe needed to throw the ball right away. Volpe had to aim the throw perfectly to reach Jazz without hitting Kike, not an easy task. It would have taken a nice play by an experienced third baseman, and unfortunately Jazz just started playing 3B for the first time when the Yankees acquired him.
Cole had a meltdown, everyone saw it. He failed on three consecutive batters, Mookie and Freeman and Teoscar. If he had gotten ANY of them out, Yanks would have won. He had 3 shots and blew them all.
All I see are a lot of outings under 3 earned runs
If cole isn’t a big game pitcher then who is? Kershaw sucks in the playoffs, verlander, scherzer, degrom, snell all have higher ERAs
So are the only big pitchers Corbin burnes and Luis Castillo because they have better postseason stats than gerrit
FP you do realize that 2.77 ERA puts Cole in the top 20 all time for SP with at least 50 IP in the postseason, right?
I watched the game. Just re-watched the play in question to make sure. Rizzo put up his glove which is the signal, “I got it” then he didn’t run to the bag. That was on Rizzo.
It was an ERROR, because the defensive player blew an easy play. That is why there are ZERO earned runs in that game log you just posted.
Cole didn’t give up those runs, the lack of defense did.
You can try to throw shade all you want, but people that know baseball know better.
sad – That’s a great question which someone else already asked, but I don’t think either of you will like the answer.
We are in a transitional period right now. Verlander from 2012-2018 was brilliant in the postseason and even more brilliant in the regular season from 2009-2023.
Scherzer was great in the postseason from 2012-2021 and earned every penny of his historic contract. He was arguably the best pitcher in MLB from 2013-2022.
There’s others, and of course going back further to guys like Lester, Pedro and Schilling.
But to answer your question, no current starting pitcher right now has earned the “elite” status. But certainly guys like Skenes and Skubal and Yamamoto could reach that level in the near future.
Thanks for taking your take down Mr fever
Because, Fever, when you have a sample size of twenty two postseason starts, you can make broad statements based on the sample size.
“Not a big game pitcher” is a broad statement that should be able to be confirmed with statistical justification. I encourage you to cite some sort of statistic that supports your argument.
Citing one bad defensive play, and two subsequent pitches where hits occurred is intellectually lazy, when there is a sample size of twenty two postseason starts that suggest you’re wrong.
You claim that Cole is not a big game pitcher who chokes, and is lazy. We all know those statements are wrong, because in order to do what Cole has done in his career and in big games, you have to be extremely dedicated and hard working. Not to mention dealing with the stress of the job and the stage he’s performed on.
If you knew the game, you would know that from Cole’s perspective the ball left the bat hard enough for Rizzo to field it with enough time to cover the bag himself. Unfortunately for Cole, he didn’t see the squibbing side spin on the ball that caused Rizzo to recognize an irregularity in the balls behavior. He had to wait to see which direction the ball was going, and that’s why Rizzo didn’t charge the ball at all.
If you knew the game you would know that no first baseman, and no pitcher wants to add another throw and catch (on the move, mind you) to the equation. Just another step to mess up.
It was a complete misread on the ball by Cole, and a mistake that likely cost them the game (aside from the two errors that inning that preceded the bag cover mistake).
I also don’t think you understand the physical and mental toll that inning took on him. When you’re in fifty to sixty pitches on that stage, your defense makes two errors behind you and the pitch count racks up, you’re absolutely gassed.
I wasn’t surprised at all by the two hits that followed the three defensive blunders, based purely the number of pitches he had already thrown in the inning. It’s ridiculous that we are even having this conversation.
Besides being physically tough to be a #1 starter in my book, you have to be mentally tough also and overcome errors
Cole often lets his emotions derail him. You can see it in his face and body language. I have suspicions his injury in 2024 will compromise his results. NYY has best data on his health, MRIs, a physical etc. TJS or similar shoulder, arm, elbow injury may be soon on the horizon. Easy Pass for Me.
I’d say it’s 80% on Rizzo and 20% on Cole.
YaGottaBelieve
Since Cole’s debut, two pitchers have made more starts. One pitcher has thrown more innings. Three have a higher fWAR. He’s a top fifteen if not top ten pitcher over the last decade in nearly any stat you could cite.
You may not like his body language, personality, or what you perceive as mental weakness, but he’s proven he’s an ace. We are a year removed from him winning the Cy Young, on top of everything else he’s achieved.
Why do people keep saying every team will be in on Cole or Soto that’s just false. Many teams like the A’s and rays and guardians would never ever even offer Cole or Soto a contract and they shouldn’t. The white Sox or Rockies won’t nor should they either.
These contracts are so massive now it’s actually zapping the players own supply and demand. The demand for the leagues highest paid player isn’t there anymore with the luxury tax.
Jeff Berry talked about this kinda thing on buster olney podcast and David Sampsons podcast and was intentionally stupid about it. He couldn’t figure out why Josh hader wasn’t given a blank cheque once he entered free agency. You would think a mega agent would be smarter but I guess not. I mean boras has been stomping his feet and crying about the QO rules for a decade now and refuses to change his strategy, costing Monty millions this past year.
Sandy Koufax was one of the worst defensive pitchers of his time. You want a good defensive pitcher but some just aren’t.
Hahaha… what an excellent comparison. Respect!
Happiest man in America right now? Cashman.
Sweetie, with all due respect to Corpsegrinder, CC post-Barnes is incomparable. And Barnes has been way more successful in SixFeetUnder.
Maybe the appropriate comp is Sepultura post-Max because we all know Derrick Green ain’t no Cavalera
Tomi Joutsen, post Pasi — Amorphis
I prefer Barnes’ output with the band over Corpsegrinder’s. Though, Fisher does a mean head twirl….
Barnes had a couple good albums with Six Feet Under but I get what you are saying.
Would Yankee fans prefer Cole to play with the Mets or the Dodgers? I think the Yankees will give him the extra year.
They most definitely will. I am willing to bet anyone on this commenting section that the Yanks pick up that option. I’m not suggesting I would do that, or that it’s a good move. I’m just saying that Cashman will.
Coop – Two honest questions:
1) Just yesterday you posted it was a risky move on Cole’s part to opt out, now you’re saying it’s a sure thing he’ll get the extra year? Why the change?
2) Yanks were notified of the opt out yesterday morning, why haven’t they agreed to the extra year yet? Surely they decided what to do in this situation long ago, right?
In all fairness Barnes did go on to found Six Feet Under and recorded Bringer of Blood as well as Graveyard Classics. Maybe not as successful as Cannibal Corpse but still pretty awesome.
i can’t believe someone in here would reference cannibal corpse, this is incredible
I’d be careful with Burnes. His numbers are trending in the wrong direction.
Word has it Burns is going to Cali- either Dodgers/ Angels
slider, where are you getting the “word” about Burnes wanting to go to LA?
Ha. There is no word. Not that it matters. The Dodgers will be fine regardless. They’re always looking to get better.
Sources from MLB network radio! I think he is from Cali , Bakersfield!
After an exhausting 20-second search, I can confirm Burnes was born in Bakersfield.
So you’re telling me he’s going to Dodgers then. lol
So are Cole’s. And only 95 innings this year. He’s 34. I would gladly give him $36M per for a 3 year contract. But not 5.
@Badinger The only # trending down would be his K/9. He had 2nd lowest ERA for a non shortened season of his career, 2nd best total innings pitched, in 2013 had lowest WHIP of his career, and that is just touching the surface. So any notion that “numbers” plural have been trending down(as in steady year over year decline) that is simply untrue.
You mean his lower ERA, fewer walks, lower FIP and slightly higher IP/start? I’d be okay rolling the dice with Burnes depending on the price.
If you cherry pick the stats I might as well too
What about the lower strikeouts and meltdown after the all star break?
EV was also a fair bit higher, and his CSW. was a fair bit lower. But the deal-breaker for me is the Ks. I don’t remember ever seeing a pitcher with that type of decline.
I’m not a fan of the lowe Ks either. The biggest concern for me would be his usage the past 4 seasons. He has been a workhorse and very well could keep it up.
From what I ve noticed last few decades after 3 years of heavy work loads pitchers very often have a down year or injury. With Burnes usage I could definitely see a down year in 2025 and/or 2026.
As for # decline in 2nd half, it could be at least partially due to arm fatigue. Another huge factor though switching leagues and going to a much stronger division. He’s been pitching in one of if not weakest overall divisions til going to Os.
Those are my concerns as well. He is still a fine pitcher, but this will be at least a 6-year contract, maybe 7. I guess all contracts are risky, but it is difficult to lower his K9 or his K%-BB% any lower and expect success.
I’d rather have Cole than Burnes. The latter’s peripherals are quite troubling and he’d want a much longer deal..
Burnes is only 30 , Cole 35 so ask yourself Burnes for 7/255 or Cole 5/180 thru age 39?
Cole at those years and dollars.. The downside of missing a half a season becomes an upside if healthy again because of the less innings pitched. That said, I don’t think Burnes is getting that deal so it becomes a closer call
Snell is out there too. He’s looked better than Cole/Burnes
Snell wont shave his goatee
He doesn’t have to… it’s obviously fake facial hair.
Dang I forgot about the chin hahaha
“won’t shave goatee”…Scott Boras will shave off his goatee for him for the right offer. Wait and see. I’ve never heard of anyone liking facial hair more than they like $200M+.
I think it’s more about him disliking the Yankees.
As a guy, I’m not a great judge of these things, but Cole strikes me as a much better-looking dude without a beard. I would not have expected that and maybe the same will be for Snell.
Snell is also a walking injury
Snell not getting anywhere near $200 million. Yankees 6/150 last winter was his best chance of a long term deal so if he get 4/115 he be very lucky but Ill peg him at 3/90
You can be a guy and recognize when another guy is attractive/unattractive. No need to preface your comment with “as a guy”.
After leaving Tampa, Snell stayed on the west coast. He lives in Seattle and had a recent child. No way he comes back East.
For the right amount of money, he’ll go to China!
True, Kol. Cole is on the verge of a real downswing. They actually would be better off pursuing Snell and then going after Flaherty or Pivetta.
Burnes? Please check out his K numbers, ERA, EV, etc. He’s trending in the wrong direction. If he keeps this up he’ll be league average in a couple of years.
Agreed. Sadly, I think this may be a move Stearns makes that could be regrettable.
Thanks! I’ll take him on the O’s. He will be much cheaper than Burnes and gives them a veteran anchor in the rotation that they are lacking
Word is Cole would go back to Cali too!
LlL Cool J tried that decades ago:
youtu.be/FdizL4on-Rc?feature=shared
If they let him walk, he’ll probably sign with the Dodgers and beat the Yankees in the World Series, and then it’s deja vous all over again.
I agree.. The Yankees should consider themselves blessed. The opt out may prove to be a dumb move costing him a ton of money. Then again, how much money does he need at this point.. .
Of course, Alan, how much money does any team owner need at this point…
It is called human greed.
That might be the worst take in sports history. Cole is better and will be cheaper
This will be an interesting decision for the Yankees
Not even close. This is an easy yes from NY
kc – Your post may not age very well at all.
Do you have access to his medicals?
Would you rather have him instead of Soto?
How many titles has he led his teams to?
He’s a very good pitcher, but not elite.
He’s elite. But do they want to pay for very good in years 3-5?
@Fever, can you name your “elite” SP? (Just curious).
Not elite? He won the Cy Young last year.
The Yankees would pick up the extra year in a heartbeat if they could be certain that Cole would pitch 175+ very good innings each of years 3 to 5.
The risk is the downside scenarios where a 36 to 38 year old Cole is pitching 100 or fewer mediocre innings per year.
Fever pitch guy,
Here we go again.
Starting pitchers don’t “lead their teams” to World Series titles.
m4n – Answered this question up above, but to summarize in my lifetime it’s Schilling and more recently Verlander and Scherzer. We are in a transitional period now, the next elite pitchers could be Skenes and Skubal and Yamamoto.
@Fever, Why would I not “be happy” with your answer? You use “elite” in an extremely subjective way. I asked for your opinion, and you gave it. Thank you.
I agree. Cashman called Cole his “White Whale” when he was able to sign him in FA. Although I think it could be argued that the Yankees {should} let him walk, I don’t think they will. I don’t believe it’ll even be a discussion internally.
Nor should it be a discussion. 5/180 is entirely reasonable for the only pitcher in MLB who has consistently delivered elite rate stats while also being top 10 in innings pitched every year for about a decade. Way better deal than giving Soto 550M+ for 13 years. Yanks can get Cole for 5 years, Burnes for 5 years and Snell for 2 before he opts out again for the price of Soto.
550 for Soto? Are you lowballing him. His agent is Boras. 550 is small money to Boras. 13 yrs? He wants more than that.
Soto and boras won’t get 550. That’s my take. Sotos glove is suspect and he didn’t hit in the ws except one moon shot.
I really think it’s funny fans base their opinions on 5 games in late October as if they mean anything. It’s literally like finding soto’s worst 5 game stretch in the season and saying he won’t get a larger contract because of those 20 at bats.
Clip,
The lesson in Moby Dick is sometimes it’s the right choice to let the white whale get away.
I think it’s an easy decision to let him walk. They would have gladly signed him for 5 years and all that money but it required 9 years and four more at the same money to secure him.
With his opt out, it works out as great for the Yankees for 5 years and now move on. The extra 4 years and being held over a barrel with the original signing is gone and thankfully so in my opinion.
Gary, I don’t think you’re wrong for your opinion, but I don’t think that Yankees are quite as astute. I want Cole to stay, I think he will, but allowing him to leave is not a bad decision if I’m being objective.
Yankees need an Ace. Who are your options? Do you rather have Burnes? I don’t trust him long term. There are some red flags.
And Snell only shows up in the second half, if he shows up at all.
Cole/Snell/Burnes, Rodon, Schmidt, Gil isn’t enough. How about trading for Alcantara or Crochet? If healthy, Sandy is one of the best in Baseball.
@clip I think I’d let him walk, and who knows, maybe they will. 5/180 for a 34 YO who missed half the season w/ an injury. Might get Snell for same contract or a little less and he’s shown himself to be better last couple of years (not that he’s mr. durable himself). In other words, they may have options out there that would allow them to let him go.
Yes, the main problem for the Yanks is building their team through free agency. If they let Cole go they may not be able to sign his replacement at a good price!
I think you gotta dig into the medicals on this one.
Ny has them and if they look proper I think he stays
Any red flags, well he just threw you a nice bone today
Gary and Clip both have the right of it !
Slider, I think the main problem with building a team through free agency is Brian Cashman!
But, in a serious note, you’re right. It’s really tough in today’s game to build through FA, which is what makes their analytics & development teams’ mistakes so apparent.
Bronx… The price tag for Crochet will be huge and very competitive. I just don’t think they have enough talent on the farm to get him.
Cashman is the least of the Yanks problem, Cole should have won both games he pitched.. Poor defense and bad base running did them in. Yanks only have 3 players who would play on the 99 team, Cole, Soto, and Judge, the rest are under performing!
You’re right, my friend, which is a Boone issue, imho. But the only reason it’s a Boone problem is because Cashman and Boone have dismissed all the complaints about player defense over the past several seasons, telling the fans that they aren’t seeing what they are seeing…
I just feel like rather than spending $85M on Cole and Burnes they could likely get Burnes, Fried, Walker for similar money. They were too top heavy to begin with. But we’ll see how it plays out
Does he get $180 mil/5 on the open market. Probably. $180 mil ain’t what it used to be. Is he worth it at age 34 coming off an injury year? Who knows. It’s a crapshoot, as it is with most FAs. Like you I might let him walk.
*meant to say spend $85M on cole and soto
I don’t think so, but be prob gets 144m and he has leverage over the yanks which is most likely why he did it
It’s their money but dumb to void it. Let that sob walk and wind up with some ridiculous club so he sees how good he had it in NY
Lol the salt
lol the defending a team who couldn’t care less if you were on fire at their stadium
I’m sure they have a contingency plan for fans that are on fire in the stadium since it happens so often. Baseball has a fan on fire issue. Always has. Always will
The risk with plan B is that many players don’t always want to play in New York anymore. There are other factors when signing, like weather, location, and family!
Can’t help but think the reason Cole opted out was more about a circumstance like you mentioned versus thinking he’ll make more as a FA.
I would be very surprised if the Yankees add the extra 1/36m since he just started showing signs that his days of being a 200+ inning ace may be in the past.
He’ll be behind Burnes, Snell and Fried as a FA and I wouldn’t be surprised if teams like LAD would prefer Flaherty over him too.
No one is giving him 36m/yr at this point, not even Cohen. He is definitely not sniffing 180m today.
Can they make a new contract contingent upon covering first base?
Best comment so far
Contingent on pitching well against the Mets.
Maybe they can get some players who play defense, 5 unearned runs, Cole should have won both games he pitched in the series with average defensive play! He is a true ace pitcher.
If he covers first instead of heading to the dugout, maybe he does win Game 5.
Future dodger
That’s two time World Series loser Gerrit Cole to you
In all fairness if AJ Hinch brought in Cole instead of Will Harris the stros probably win that World Series. Cole was pissed as soon as it happened
Hell, for that matter leave Greinke in there. Anybody but Harris in that situation. Nats got one too many looks at him.
Of all people to get that homer it was Howie Kendrick. Would’ve stung a lot less with it was Bryce Harper
Cole should have won both starts with average defense!
They ran into a juggernaut team who practically prints money. Still a hell of a season for the Yankees after what they looked like in 2023
The Yankees print money and lose. By the way, before signing Ohtani, Yamamoto and Teoscar last offseason, the Dodgers, despite being a big market team had been “responsible” with their free agent acquisitions, having only signed Freeman, Trevor Bauer and AJ Pollock during the Andrew Friedman era. Betts’s large contract was an extension, not a free agent signing. No one is saying anything about the Padres having spent nearly a billion dollars a couple years ago in their attempt to overtake the Dodgers. By your account, they print money and lose too. Like the Yankees.
They deferred 700 million to Ohtani. Doesn’t matter what they did it years past they print money at this point
By the way, just to educate you further, the Yankees print a lot more money than the Dodgers. See the top MLB payrolls in 2024:
New York Mets $311M
New York Yankees $306M
Houston Astros $249M
Philadelphia Phillies $245M
Texas Rangers $232M
Atlanta Braves $229M
Toronto Blue Jays $227M
Los Angeles Dodgers $225M
You forgot the 700 million deferred loophole. Hey they even deferred some of Teoscers 23 million
The dodgers spent over a billion dollars this last offseason. Maybe you should educate yourself there Danny boy
Ohtani deferred that money. The Dodgers weren’t going to say no to that. You could have said they ran into a great team and flat out lost. Almost got swept hadn’t been for the bullpen game that was more of a punt game. Roberts didn’t pitch any of his high leverage arms in that game, saving his elite relievers for the remaining games.
The point is you have no argument saying the Yankees lost because they ran into a juggernaut that prints money when the Yankees, per their payroll, prints more money than the Dodgers. When the Yankees lost to the lowly Marlins in 2003, what was your reasoning then? Because you were the juggernaut then and still lost. It’s not the money, it’s the performance. And the Yankees choked!!! Period.
Outside of Machado and Bogy, who did the Padres spend billions on in free agency? Tatis was an extension. Snell was a year. Darvish was reasonable. They are no different than any other team out there, such as the Dodgers and Giants. They’re just trying to keep up with them.
Take the L bro
The Yankees made it to game 5 of the World Series. If that’s your definition of choking I don’t know what to tell you. It’s not just the fact that the dodgers print money it’s they have a very good front office too. Okay Yankees had judge and Soto you know what’s better than that? 3 former mvps back to back Ohtani, Betts, and World Series hero Freddie Freeman. To call the dodgers anything short of a juggernaut is laughable. They had a bullpen game in the World Series and still finished it in 5 games.
Ohtani offered that deferral to all teams.
Source ?
Not understanding this “print money” comment. They both spend more money than nearly all teams – and they can.
Dodgers were better than the Yankees, plain and simple.
I don’t know that youncan say this as a fact @differentears. From what I read, he offered that after he chose them as the team he wanted to sign with nLeta not forget, also, that if the Angels had accepted, he would still be b with them. Ohtani offered them the chance to match but Arte declined.
LA – $351.7 ( 2)
NYY – $320.8 ( 3)
The Mets were #1 with $356.2 ( 1)
LA finished the yr with few starting pitchers. They will load up. They can afford Cole if he becomes a FA. They will be a bidder on Burnes, Fried, and maybe Soto? They want to win 5 WS in a row.
Ohtani was always going to be on LA. Those are the facts. The rest was pure negotiating for fun.
Darvish was an extension. The only big time FA deals the Pads have done in Preller’s tenure was Machado, Hosmer and Boegarts. The rest were trades. You can count Kim in there but that was only a 4/$28 million deal.
Derek with the most foolish take.
What a decision to make for them o would be clueless that’s why I’m not a manager
Especially since you apparently think that the manager makes this decision.
The manager isn’t making that decision.
It’s a no-brainer for the Yanks…hard pass
Tough decision emotionally, personally I’d let him walk to save MORE money for Soto and even go for Burnes… but I LOVE Cole so much, we betrayed him over the years by not winning a chip and both WS games he started.
I didn’t know you were part of the team. What position did you play?
A “chip?” Is that supposed to be lingo for “championship?” If so, it’s mid
Old man yells at cloud
What if Cole and Soto were both to walk???
Could the Yankees acquire enough pitching to balance the table? How do the Yankees plug all the holes in their lineup? Can New York run the bases aggressively and not rely so much on the home run?
No and no. If they both walk Yankees will be lucky to make the postseason, imho. They have neither the stomach nor the business acumen to mitigate those losses.
It’s also why I feel that the Soto decision is the *only way to keep this team close – yes, it can be easily argued that Soto’s money would be better spend by filling multiple holes, but what worries me is the Fishman/Cashman combo of deciding where to spend it.
Clip – Any team with a healthy Judge (at least 140 games played) will make the postseason.
It’s not like the Yankee would pocket the money saved on those two, they would surely spend to acquire additional talent.
You’re right FPG, but they had Judge in ‘23 and they didn’t. Granted your exception ‘healthy Judge’ is noted, but I’m not so sure he going to stay healthy as he ages.
Clip – Judge missed more than a third of the 2023 season. Sure there’s no guarantee of future health, but with the Yankees you can basically punch their postseason ticket every year as long as the injuries are avoided.
Agree with you on Soto. Of course, a dozen teams have at least checked in and I expect at least half a dozen serious offers. If I were a betting man, I’d pick the field as opposed to the Yankees.
You think 6 serious offers for Soto. I think at the end it comes down to 3 teams overbidding for him. We will see. Boras would love 6 teams going wild. He wants more than Ohtani money. Soto did great in Yankee stadium. Coming off two big yrs and he has been fairly durable. He wont be the #1 guy on the Yankees or Dodgers. But on the Mets? He would be the #1.??? Cohen ready to spend.
If they walk the Yanks could sign Fried, Alonzo, Bregman, Adames, Scott, Bummer, Lopez and still have money left over.
Adames is overrated coming of a career yr. Beware. And in NY no less. Bregman may not be as cheap as you might think.
He’s in the twilight of his career. Anyone who thinks he’s worth $36m a year for the next five years is insane. Yankees just got a gift from Cole.
Exactly and perfectly said.
He won the Cy Young in 2023 and was injured this year and pitched only 95 innings and still managed a 3.69 fip. How is that twilight of his career
rick – You are 100% correct!
Whenever a team gives contracts of 9 or more years, they tack on the last few years knowing his performance will likely decline and therefore he will be overpaid during those final years. If the Yankees are smart, they will realize they got the 5 best years of Cole without having to overpay for the remainder of the contract. They’ve GOT to be smart enough to realize Cole gave him a gift as you said.
Fever who do they replace him with? The odds of him being good years 4-5 are bad but he’s highly likely to be a top pitcher the first 3 years. For a team coming off a World Series appearance they have to keep him.
If the Yankees have more SPs in the minors on the cusp of breaking through, they could get Cease from the Padres.
Idk about that… he might give two more years of top 10 MLB SP caliber, but he’s already 34 and missed half the year with an injury. I agree he gave them a gift.
Erebus – It depends on how serious Hal was when he said the payroll will be reduced for next season.
The way I look at it, who is more valuable to them? Soto or Cole? I think most would say Soto. And I don’t think they can reduce payroll by keeping both players.
There’s many ways they can replace him. They could sign Snell, and trade for Monty. They could also sign Fried. I’m not totally sold on Burnes, but it’s also a possibility.
The Mets and Rangers learned why to avoid old guys with huge salararies as starters. Cole is younger. But those teams learned.
Yankees won’t let him go. He showed he had grit, in my mind, after that horrible 5th inning to come back and give them almost 7 innings of work.
They will definitely add the extra year. No way he would be dumb enough to opt out unless he was assured of it. No chance he does better than $144 over 4 years as a free agent.
Yankees have to pick up the option right? Without thinking of outside free agents who every other team has just as good of chance to get, who do the Yankees have internally who could step up in his place? Seems like an easy call since they just made it to the World Series for the first time since 2009, ride the hot hand that got you there. I know Cole gave up 5 runs in game 5 but he’s still a top 5 pitcher
Let’s not forget the Yanks played a major part of the season without Cole last year!
They have five other starting pitchers on the roster now. They could just sign a swingman like Pivetta and be set. Let somebody else pay for his decline.
Because those 5 are all on Cole’s level right ?
How long do the Yankees have before they have to make the decision? I didn’t see that in the article.
The article said Sunday, I think.
5 PM EST Monday 11/4
Clearly surprised by his decision to opt out.
Time for the Yankees to move on. They could still offer him the same amount they owe him on the original deal and gamble that he cannot get more.
I suspect he is sick of playing with such a poor defence behind him.
I suspect he wants another $36 mil.
I would he think he already knows the Yankees are going to kick in that extra year.
180 million to a 34 year old? Easy pass. Younger options for the same or less.
Name one option that is likely to happen and comparable to Cole
“Name one option that is likely”…No one is likely as good as Cole’s last 5-6 yrs…That being said, Cole himself is not as good as his last 5-6 yrs and his best wasn’t good enough to win a title for NY.
That also goes for Juan Soto. With the near $200M to Cole and potentially $500M+ to Soto, they could use that money($700M+) to acquire TWO top flight pitchers and still have money for 2b, LH bat and the bullpen.
The Yankees are too top heavy(and HR reliant)and could experience greater gains by more evenly spreading around their payroll.
Snell has outperformed him over last two years and I could easily see him doing the same over the next three. And he’s two years younger.
Burnes scares me a bit but is still four years younger with similar numbers. I know the K are trending down though.
I’d make a modest bet on Snell out-performing him over the next four years. And Sasaki, if he comes over.
He is going to be 35 starting year 1 of 5 to age 39. Hard pass!!!
Let Cole walk, sign Snell, trade for Montgomery again, sign Walker for 1B, bring back Soto and pray one or two of the young guys step up. It’s not my money hahaha
That’s thirty-six million reasons to cover first base.
Good but honestly, there’s not a lot of options out there in the SP free agency pool. Might be able to get a discount on Walker Buehler and Shane Bieber
I just don’t see them getting Corbin Burnes and would be surprised if the Brewers don’t pick up the option on Freddy Peralta. I’m also not convinced that Blake Snell will age will, given he’ll want a long-term contract.
Brewers did pick up Peralta’s option, so he’s off the table.
What if they don’t keep cole so they can have enough money for Soto
The question is what is the payroll limit for Steinbrenner
Payroll limit for Steinbrenner is: “Less”
Yankees and payroll limit should not be words used in the same sentence when they just finished off a World Series appearance and will have plenty of money to work with from the playoffs. If anything, now you push the envelope more to get that ring. Reset the CBT later, it’s win now mode.
Steinbrenner has stated the current payroll is not sustainable. I’m sure he’d prefer to reset all the escalating tax penalties, but he also knows Cashman would lose 100 games with a mid range payroll. Tough spot to be in.
Why so much Cashman hate? I’d take him every day over trader Jerry
brucenewton
Steinbrenner has stated the current payroll is not sustainable.
==========================
Including the CBT, the payroll cost the NYY $388M. Even with their revenue stream, that’s a huge amount of money.
This is a risky decision by Cole. He’s basically guessing that the Yankees will add that extra year. If they don’t, then he just made a terrible decision because whonis going to give him more than 4, 144M? Even if some team was willing to give him 5 years, it’s not going to match the AAV of his remaining salary from the one he opted out of.
There’s nothing risky about it. He’s already made more than $200 million in MLB salary and will get great offers to pitch elsewhere.
Gerrit Cole is a top 3 Starter in baseball right now.
He would readily beat 144/4 if the Yankees do not pick up the option.
He’s not a top 3 SP in MLB right now, not anymore. Even in his best months (Aug, Sept) last year he was top 10 by most measures, not top 3. Currently, Skubal, Wheeler, Snell, GIlbert all better, and I could argue a couple of others. Top 10? Sure. Top 3? No. With Snell, Burnes, Fried all available, I don’t think he’ll beat 4/144 on open market at his age unless some team is extremely desperate.
He doesn’t need to beat it. Just get a deal he likes in a place where he wants to pitch.
Cole is an Ace, but he will not be an Ace for much longer!
Perhaps he wants a beard again.
I remember the same argument being used about Verlander and Scherzer. They did ok on their last contracts.
Let Cole walk, sign Snell, and Walker, and resign Soto of course. IF defense improves with Walker. Then try and trade for McMahon for 3B.
I find it hard to believe that Cole actually opted out. Is he that confident the Yankees will tack on the extra year?
That has to be his thinking unless he really doesn’t enjoy it there and is equally confident in another new deal for big money elsewhere. Very interesting scenario.
Basically then, NY decision on Cole (age 35,36,37,38,39) is 5/180 ?
That seems steep. It also seems Cole would not get that as FA.
NY has to make decision in just a few days I think, maybe 5 days.
Seems like a damned if you do, damned if you don’t type choice.
More like a dumb if you do.
Cole might bounce back from injury and be worth that in ’25, but will he really be worth it the last 2-3 years? I doubt it. Plus, there are other quality pitchers out there who are younger. There’s also the trade market. Cole isn’t easy to replace, but he’s not absolutely elite like Soto is.
I say let him walk and then offer him a 3 year contract
I think they’ll exercise the fifth year option.
Agreed. Any comparable replacement (and only burnes really fills the same niche, snell doesnt eat innings like cole and fried/flaherty are not on the same level in any regard) is not likely to cost significantly less than cole over the same period of time. Also there is the inherent risk of competing for them in the open market.
If I were to bet on any current pitcher being able to remain effective into his late 30s like Verlander and Scherzer did it would be cole. He shares quite a few characteristics with those guys. And the extra year comes into play at a point where a number of current significant contracts will be expiring so effectively its a status quo for the budget and they have several years to move things around to mitigate the payroll hit for the extra year.
Maybe they’re work it to 5 and 170. Gets the tax number down and Gives Cole more guaranteed.
I love that there are commenters who are 100% sure of both outcomes. Some people will be 100% right, and others will be 100% wrong.
Except me! I’m 1000% right!
Clip, how the HECK are you old friend? Are they letting you hold your own chat sessions yet?? Their loss…lol. Hope all is well amigo..Been seeing you on the boards here and just couldn’t take it anymore. Had to get back into the game! I’m gonna cut to the chase lol, I heard the Yankees have till tomorrow night to “re-sign” Cole. Does it happen?….And most importantly, do we pick up where we left off last off-season? Where does Snellzilla go and WHEN?? =)
I’m 10,000% right! That’s 100% squared baby!
NO player is worth that much money. No matter how good he is
I’ll leave it to you experts… any chance Detroit comes calling??
No. No chance the Yankees don’t pick up the option. This is all very predictable. We will see the story very shortly where the Yankees have picked up the option and cancelled the opt-out.
I’m sure it’s been said but this is a mistake by Cole. Now the Yankees will turn their attention to Corbin Burns. The Yankees aren’t giving that money to a 34 year old pitcher who just showed a flash of elbow problems.
He along with Soto are headed to the Dodgers. LAD is the new George!
You are correct in many ways but they’re not as free spending as they were recently. They’ve reeled it in a little bit.
They may go for one Soto but I doubt he gets an offer such as one the Yankees will put forth. He stays 100%.
Then another team will likely sign Cole as their much needed ace. Not sure who but not the Dodgers. They have Kershaw lol.
Soto didn’t like playing on the West Coast. All things being equal, he stays with the Yankees.
Can you provide a link with Soto saying that?
No. Why would he say anything to limit his market?
Yankees people” don’t think Soto wants to return to Southern California after spending parts of two seasons with the Padres before he was traded to the Yankees in December.
Many do see the Yankees and Mets holding an edge in the highly anticipated free-agent derby since there was suggestion early in [Soto’s] tenure in San Diego that the Dominican star preferred to be on the East Coast, where he started with the Nationals in Washington.”
mlb.com/news/juan-soto-rumors
No he can’t.
Soto built a house in Coronado California. The kind of house you have custom built when you are going to live there the rest of your life.
His agent said that they were near a deal to play the rest of his career in San Diego, which just happens to be on the West Coast.
Soto has said that he wants to play where he can cement his legacy by winning a WS title. Wherever he plays, he is going to make incredible money. The amount of money will limit his market, but as we have already read, 11 teams have checked in already and several are likely waiting in the wings.
Any team that can show him that they will be in the playoffs year after year so that he gets his shot a the WS title will be in the running to sign him.
You mean like having 30 plus years in a row of a winning record and Aaron Judge hitting behind you?? Something like that? I didn’t make up the article posted by MLB.com. I’m not that clever and don’t have the time.
Cohen can out bid the Yanks!
Every team in MLB has the money to pay Soto if they want to. This ultimately will not be about money, though. The Yankees will match any offer for Soto, so it will just be about where he wants to play. Soto is an investment, not an expense,
Soto will not defer one dollar so the Dodgers are out.
If I was in charge of negotiations for the Yankees, I would try to add on 3 seasons at 20 million to Cole’s current contract right now, which would lower the AAV to 30m a year.
The Yankees can not let Cole go.
He is not a fireballer, he will age well.
To put it in words.
Instead of 180/5 (after picking up the option), 240/8, buying his age 40, 41, 42 seasons.
Why? To lower his AAV to $30MM instead of $36MM. The first CBT threshold goes up every single season. I see no reason to give him three extra years now.
Thank God you’re not in charge of negotiations.
I understand the theatrics of the opt out but it strikes me as risky. The Yankees can replace most of Cole’s production with fewer dollars.
If it was my money, I’d say goodbye. Not legging it out to cover 1st in THE MOST IMPORTANT game of the year tells me to look elsewhere for a champion!
Well he did point to 1st like a good coach should.
Makes me think of Sale and mistake of Sox to give contract when it was apparent big injury was highly likely due to issues lingering.
I don’t know, that’s pretty steep for a guy who’s gonna have to spend 2025 back in little league to learn how to cover first base.
I’d pass on Cole. The Mets showed that you can make it to the LCS without a number one, two or three. Their Yankees can easily supplant Cole with a Manaea/Severino combo for the same cost and have depth on a shorter term scale that offers future flexibility and concentrate on Soto, the bigger piece to the team.
Huh? The Yankees, with Cole, advanced further than the Mets with Manaea/Severino. And there’s no guarantee that Soto will return to the Yankees.
Cole almost missed some significant time and wasn’t exactly Cole like at the beginning, either. Furthermore, the Yankees didn’t ride on Cole to the WS. Mets weren’t even predicted to draft outside of the Top Ten next year – they certainly went much further than predicted. And with what?
Neither beat the Dodgers in a 7 game series. The only reason the Yankees advanced deeper than the Mets is they couldn’t face Los Angeles until the World Series.
If this is between Cole and Soto, im sorry but the decision is easy. If you look at past top SP FA options the last 3 years, Im not sure Cole lands the money hes looking for coming off an injury and his age. Though he did look good this postseason so that mightve settled the injury concerns for him
Cole will be back. Picking up the final year to negate the opt-out is an easy call.
Cole has a very hittable 4 seamer these days, but the knuckle curve and control can still lead to ace like outings. He also bring a surplus value as an innings eater in today’s environment.
You need him for 2025, but you can easily envision him becoming mediocre in a hurry.
Unless there is some self imposed, Soto preventative budget, the scales say tack on the extra year, but I think the Yankees missed his premium competitive window.
Cole always had a relatively hittable fastball, dating back to his days as a Pirate. His knock against him during that time was always giving up that untimely HR off a fastball iirc
I agree man. In Pittsburgh, he was using more sinkers low in the zone. In Houston, he had spider tack, peak velocity and worked the letters and above very well.
Until the playoffs Cole was sitting 95 instead of the 98 to which we’re accustomed, so he may have to reinvent himself a third time to remain successful.
He was between 97 and 99 in Game 5.
I said until the playoffs. He certainly emptied the tank in the WS.
We’ll see if he’s still conservative or able to live in that range during the regular season next year.
His career average is 96.5 mph. Last season was 95.9 mph.
His FB has been trending towards. From elite to merely very good.
His knuckle curve has been his go to off speed offering the last two years and was his most valuable offering last year 1.5/100 pitches whereas his FB was 1.0/100 and his slider only 0.2/100.
His extension has dropped from the 75th percentile neighborhood to below average (30’s) last couple of years.
So anyway, I appreciate the data but even your link shows his FB is losing velocity while being released further from the plate and his curve is now his best pitch.
Wow. The stats are right there and you didn’t even bother to take a look.
In 2023 his FB was the best in baseball. Period.
His FB lost a half mph in 2024. Nothing that should not be expected when he missed miss half a season. THEN his FB velocity was WELL ABOVE his career averages in the postseason, but to you that doesn’t matter.
His curve was not even as good as his FB this season. Not even close. The stats are clear.
Try again with someone that DOESN’T know how to actually read stat charts. Maybe you won’t look so totally misinformed then.
Pads Fans- I did look man. I even thanked you for the share but I suggest you look more closely. Cole’s Run value in 2024 is higher for the FB (7) than Curve (4) because he threw it more often.
Look at the column to the left of that- value/100 -which means value per 100 pitches. There it shows the curve at 1.5/100 and the fastball 1.0/100. The slider has been trending downwards and he increased the usage of his curve the last two seasons to compensate.
Also, his fastball velocity has dropped from the mid 90th percentile to the low 90th percentile and finally to the high 70s percentile last season. Remember we’re trying to project his future performance and of course he threw harder in the playoffs- it’s called emptying the tank to help your club win a title, but is not really a relevant comp for next season and beyond.
Honest question pads fan, do the data sources you’re looking at show velo data on a timeline that might illustrate any trends in his fb velo between returning from the IL and the postseason? Like game by game, week by week, etc? I’m curious because it isn’t exactly unheard of for pitchers returning from injury to regain velo over time, and when I see averages being used in a situation like this I’m gonna wonder about that potential for a skewed number.
Scroll down to run value. You will notice Cole’s 4-seam FB is in that red color the last 3 years. 2018, 2019, 2021, 2023 it was the best 4-seasm in the game. It is always in 80th percentile or above.
baseballsavant.mlb.com/savant-player/gerrit-cole-5…
baseballsavant.mlb.com/leaderboard/pitch-arsenal-s…
That curveball of his. not as good. His slider has been his 2nd best pitch. .
My guess is that the Yankees pick up Cole’s option for the fanbase, not for the performance. Though they should still get a couple decent years out of him, at least.
The pickup becomes a certainty if Soto is hinting at Ohtani money with the Yanks. $700 million? Hey, Cole looks cheap!
Cole is 34. I don’t think he will get a contract that will cover that $144 million. Maybe I’m wrong. Did the Yankees a favor and now they have money for Soto.
Agreed. If I were the Yankees, I would focus on Soto as a top priority and cast a wider net on starting pitching..
Pay the man, then teach him how to cover 1b.
Unfortunately those things happen, the timing couldn’t have been worse though. Just like an outfielder making a bad initial 1st step on a ball. It was 50% him and 50% Rizzo. Just miraculously bad timing. From what I saw, even if Rizzo charged and Cole covered, it would have been super super close.
We’ll never know, so unfortunately the Series outcome came down to that particular lapse.
Not making excuses for not covering 1B but they’re not getting Mookie chugging down the line.
YBC!!! Good to talk to ya old pal! Yeah I don’t put too much stock in that being the Yanks undoing. They could have come back all the way up till the final pitch. Let’s see if LA and NY can both run it back next year. What a rematch it would be!
Likewise, Trumbo Ver. 3!
Again, we’ll never know…
Very tough decision. They got his peak years, and now they’re faced with paying premium prices for what will likely be his declining years. If I’m NYY I let him walk and invest that money in a younger SP earlier in his prime. Cole will find a landing spot, but not at $36M for more than maybe 2 or 3 years.
This is nit-picky, but: if age and contract comps with other pitchers are a main focus of the article, it might be good to mention Cole’s age somewhere.
Funny thing is that an additional year at $36 million will not affect his lifestyle or that of his family in any way. Unless he is a complete fool with his money, he should be able to live a lavish lifestyle and provide for his children (if any) on the $200 million plus already. From my values, I see this as either an ego thing or a greed thing. How much is enough?
Yeah that’s not how much he would have from his baseball earnings. He’d have less than half if he was lucky. Taxes, Boras’ cut and other agents, a litany of other costs of a professional athlete, and the usual for food and a roof, children. I have no idea what sponsorship money he has earned but he’s not sitting as pretty as 200$M, but definitely comfortable if he hasn’t fallen into the rat race of appearances.
Could be just this. He already has enough money and he knows the Yankees will decline. So now he gets to decide where and how to end his career.
Cole’s loyalty is to his wallet, not any team. This is a calculated risk to get the Yankees to pay him more money. He will pitch well as long as he can, but I don’t see him being elite too much longer. At some point he becomes Scherzer, Verlander, Kershaw, just a shadowy figure who occasionally shows up to pitch a gem. It will be interesting to watch this play out.
That should be every players approach. It’s a business.
Boy, if Soto and Cole wind up on the Dodgers?
Maybe the Yankees can sign the guys who grabbed Mookie’s glove.
Womp womp.
starting pitchers keep pitching fewer innings yet demanding larger salaries.
I think that’s it. Just go from there. Hope that helps.
He’s gone… don’t you dare open the check book for him, Cashman. They can go after Snell or Burnes and get younger. Or save money entirely by not adding a big name pitcher and just keep Soto around. They have a hole a 1b now too, so spread the money around!
It’s a formality. He’ll be back in pinstripes.And if he’s not, the Yankees better focus on defense if they want to attract any good FA pitchers.
How generous of him. Now Yankees can go all in for Soto.
Let him walk
The yankees should see if he’s willing to go 7 years for $210 million. This would lower their annual payroll by $6 million per year and guarantee Cole another $30 million in career earnings and the ability to retire as a yankee. Even if he loses a year to Tommy John it’s not a bad deal and similar pitchers like Verlander and Scherzer have proven you can pitch until 41 years old
Yanks be like that Snowman in that chic movie Frozen and sing “Let him go! Let him go!” Doing the Yankees a big favor by allowing them to opt out. Best yrs of these long term monsters are always the first few
Cole is the smartest guy in that clubhouse and the only interview worth listening to. That alone is worth the money.
Let the Mets have him. They like signing mid-30s pitchers so let them pay for his decline like they did for Max and Justin.
Hope is not a strategy, and for the Yankees, neither is saving cash.
They’re eating that payroll like it’s Nonna’s cannoli
I’m surprised so many fans think this is a ‘no=brainer’ decision, one way or another. I think it’s a very difficult decision. Odds are, that last year won’t look great, but the Yankees don’t have an easy replacement for Cole, and even with their payroll flexibility, that’s no guarantee a Burnes WANTS to pitch in NY (he doesn’t seem like the type who would) and there are red flags on him and the other premium FA starters.
If money means nothing, as seems to be the case with the deepest pocket teams, than overpaying Cole may make sense, since he’s a known quantity. But I wouldn’t blame them or be shocked if they went the other way either.
Yeah, with this option the Yankees would commit even more to having a lot riding on the aging of Cole (currently 34) and Judge (currently 32, and signed at $40 million AAV through 2031). Plus they have Rodon at $27 million/yr through 2028, and he’s underperformed the first two years of his contract.
Even the Yankees face some challenges if they end up with periods of stacking less productive later years of contracts that worked out over their entire term (Judge almost certainly, probably Cole) with other big dollar contracts that don’t work out at all.
@realist101 Do you think this may cause Soto pause to sign long term with the Yankees? Aging Judge and Stanton. Cole? may or may not be there. Holes at 1B, 2B or 3B if they move Jazz to 2B. Not a great defensive team and quite a few holes to fill.
Honestly no idea.
I don’t know if most players look at competitiveness of teams with that level of analysis, or if they look at things in simpler terms like “the team is good now and always runs a high payroll”.
As for nearer-term, I would guess that Yankees will be in on other big-name FA pitchers this off-season if they let Cole walk. And the Yankees may rather quickly address some of those other holes with FA’s or trades.
Think of it as a car deal. You own a car that has 40,000 miles on it. Now you’re thinking “should I trade this one a get another one with less miles? but I like this car, it still runs fast though it needed a small repair this year” The answer is pretty straight forward. Yes get Burnes.
Anybody saying he’s not worth it hasn’t watched Yankees baseball over the last 2 years, let alone before that. I’m actually shocked how many would let him walk. Is 36 mil too much? Is it? Guys like stroman are getting 18, Kyle Gibson declined an option to make 12. JV and max were over 40 mil. I don’t think the market is where people think it is for pitchers. Cole is a rare breed, a picther’s pitcher who can still reach back for 98 mph gas when he needs it. He pays a ton of attention to his body and his health, he’s a workhorse, a leader, it sounds like he’s an amazing resource for the rest of the pitching staff. This man needs to retire a Yankee and it’s an absolute no brainer to keep him.
People are making a judgement on how Coles’ results will be over the next 5 years not in previous years. It’s just an educated guess,
MLB GM’s have to make these judgements every day.
Team construction based on a lot of variables.
There are no guarantees either way.
In two years, Cole will be just like Verlander and Scherzer. He will spend more time on the ILmand rehabbing than pitching.
Kyle Gibson didn’t decline an option to make $12 million.
The *team* declined to pick up Kyle Gibson’s $12 million option.
And number of contract years matter a lot as well as salary.
The optimistic case for Cole’s aging is someone like Verlander or Scherzer. They’ve been very good pitchers in their late 30’s, even while missing time due to injuries.
The pessimistic case is someone like Roy Halladay. He was an absolute beast through his age 34 season, putting up 6+ WAR seasons year-after-year. Then he got derailed by injuries, put up one 2.5 WAR season, then 1 below replacement level season. He was done as a major league pitcher at age 36.
It’s an easy decision for me Cole isn’t worth 36M to me. It’s a Slam Dunk
I say hit the road Jack!
Where was Coles’ killer instinct. in the World Series?
Plus what was the injury that delayed his 2024 start – how has he healed, what limitations remain? NYY should know by giving him a physical other teams can’t really be sure
During his rehab it looks like he put on some weight and he is NOT a #1 IMHO. He is more a (2.25 , B-) starter
IF NYY is smart they will pass on Soto also, I hope my NMY pass on Soto also.
Let him go to TOR (astroturf/concrete is HARD on the body) OR maybe SF will give him his money TWO Teams that need a serious offense upgrade to compete in tough divisions
Typo fix: NYM – NY Mets that is
The problem with your suggestion to let him hit the road and find a replacement is that almost every other pitcher out there with top of the rotation credentials will want big money and long years too…..and as far as Cole’s killer instinct, I seem to remember that entering the 5th in game 5, he had a no-hitter going…..
Tough call given the age and years he wants but the question is are there better options pitching wise out there that are top of the rotation arms as replacements?
NYY IMHO need to set a new mindset,
The Correct Way to Play the Game. A younger core of players.
Emphasis on prospect influx from minors. De emphasize long term contracts (more than 5), Boras clients, and paying FA for what they did in the past. This is what I hope my team NYM does also.
The idea is I believe you can build an effective pitching staff by spreading the salary around to multiple pitchers.
If you have a fundamentally sound defense (doesn’t have to be GG at every position) you can win a World Series.
The NYY offense without Soto, Gleyber, and Verdugo is still elite; add the Martian, figure out where Jazz plays (some 2B and CF? NOT 3B) get one upgrade at 3B or 1B (trade of FA) and the NYY are better for the next 5 + years and probably under the CBA threshold.
Cabrera and Rice are useful players (although Rice could use more AAA time) Even DJL has some value in a platoon
They should have about 10 prospects on the verge that can help out anytime in 2025 if not right out of spring training.
You could miss out on Burnes, Crochet and STILL build an effective pitching staff
Yanks could trade for one of SEA or MIA starters, Crochet, Marquez, Fedde, sign FA Buehler, N. Martinez, Eovaldi (Not a fan of Flaherty)
NYY 2025 Starters (tentative)
Rodon
Schmidt
Gil
Stroman
AAA Pitcher brought up
Plus ADD 2 of names mentioned above __________
They definitely need 2 RPs like Tanner Scott, Jansen, Hoffman (all FAs), trades (maybe Helsley, Mason Miller) OR Move Gil to bullpen (Co closer Setup) Cashman earn your Salary!
Forgot to include
NYY offense also will be without a healthy Rizzo whose bat is declining but defense still above average
Still probably good for 400 ABs 235 BA, 18 HRs 55 RBIs in 2025 – Houston maybe
Yanks would be fools to let Cole walk. I’m rooting for it I’m a Red Sox fan of course. That 5th inning is the worst defensive inning in World Series history, ya thought you were watching little league baseball. Cole threw 40 pitches in that inning alone it’s understandable he gave up 5 after all that. Nobody had been able to stop Freddie Freeman all series give him and Teoscar Hernandez credit. Cole did keep them in the game for the 6th and 7th he didn’t just quit like most pitchers would of. He was back to his normal self the 2nd half of the season showing he’s healed. Pitching is more important to winning than hitting, look at Seattle. Because you have Judge, you let Soto walk before you let Cole walk. I’m hoping Cashman makes this mistake and it costs him his job. As a Red Sox fan, I still can’t stand him or Torre lol….
@kingbum you could make the argument that hitting is more important using the mariners as the example. They couldn’t hit this year and it cost them a playoff berth with one of the best starting rotations I’ve seen
No sir, a team with just offense will just win 60 games. I watched my Red Sox blow game after game because the bullpen was spent and misused. The end of the day Detroit caught Boston and Minnesota because they had Skubal and they didn’t.
I didn’t say a team with just offense, I agree that team would be terrible. I said your example could be used as one to argue offense is more important to some extent. If the Mariners had one or two more competent bats they probably would’ve made the playoffs. While preventing runs is very important, you still need to score
To me, this is a tough call and Cole has the Yankees right where he wants them, desperate. They received his best years so far but and will undoubtedly not receive his best from here out but they can’t let him go. I assume they offer the 5th year and ultimately wish they hadn’t. If I were them I’d spend more and sign Fried & Burnes and retain Soto but building a team in NY is a complete different animal.
I think some fans neglect the fact that the Yankees are the second most valuable franchise in pro sports. Cole is part of the Yankees’ branding for pitching as much as Judge is for hitting. For PR and media, he’s as good as they come. Losing both Cole and Rizzo would be a huge dent. Rodon would melt down if the spotlight falls on him.
My question, noted below, is why didn’t Cole returning happen immediately. There’s nothing to negotiate. Hi, Brian, this is Scott, Cole is opting out. Hi, Scott, hope you’re well, the Yankees are tacking on another year. Cole is still a Yankee.
So why didn’t that happen, unless they don’t plan to ring him back on his current salary. Go out and test the market. They have other younger choices.
Cole may not want to be back….New Yorkers will not be forgiving for that gaffe and he knows it. Maybe Cole wants to put the fear of God in Cashman, exercise his leverage for more money. Those are 2 scenarios that explain the delay.
If I’m the Yankees I pick the option up and then find a team that wants Cole with some of the money absorbed.
You can pickup a prospect or two while still moving on and focusing on Soto.
I don’t think the Yankees will let him walk, but the optics of rewarding him with another year after jaking it in the a World Series elimination game is sketchy.
Lord… I know he’s made his money and he’s been an elite pitcher… but … he’s 34, at the beginning of the season he had that elbow scare, and he didn’t look like himself when he first came back. With all the tv deals causing a lot of owners to be funny (prob irrationally so) and after seeing what happened in last years market with a multi cy young winner pitcher who didn’t really have much competition in the market to compete against him, idk… perhaps I just take the 144 and ride of into the sunset. What’s 36 mil at this point?
I guess if I make an argument for Cole, worst case he signs something like Snell did… so he’ll maybe half of that 144 over the next 2 years, then hope he can pitch into his 40’s to eventually get eventually catch that 144. But again… I’d play it safe, take that 144. If I’m the yanks, I don’t give him that extra year and let the market play out and offer him the same dang deal he’s currently in.
Not sure Mussina is a good comp for expected health or effectiveness.
Mussina’s avg fastball velo was already down to 89 by his age 33 season (earliest season of his shown in the Sports Info Solutions data at Fangraphs). His fastball velo then gradually dropped to 86 over the next 6 years.
After this year’s injury and loooong recovery, and given his age, this seems like a mistake.
Who is his agent?
Maybe cover first base next time and we wouldn’t be here right now.
Well you would be here, just 1 day later.
This is a bit bizarre, he gives his best years and then opts out of the guaranteed money in his likely declining years.
I think Cole miscalculated the market (got some bad advice from Boras)(overall and specifically for starters hasn’t been set (Floor/Ceiling)
Big fish like Burnes, Snell, trade for starters Crochet, S. Gray, SEA, MIA starters haven’t had time to play out. YET.
This is going to be another interesting off season.
I wonder how many teams will be serious about signing a top ace this year. How many teams can afford them at this point? There’s only a handful of teams who aren’t looking to cut payroll due to the media contracts collapsing on them.
Yes revenue is going up overall; but that’s concentrated in a few teams. Most teams are seeing a drop in revenue. I’ve never seen this much uncertainty in the free agent market. I’m surprised Cole decided he should step into it.
So if all the Yankees have to do is tack on another year, then why didn’t that happen immediately? There’s nothing to negotiate. Boras/Cole trip opt out, Yankees add on one more year as already outlined in the contract.
Because maybe they dont want him for 5 more years? They got his prime years and now he is opting out of his more risky years. It COULD be smart to dip now. For example Soto is more important than Cole so if money is an issue (lol) its a no brainer to let Cole walk and give that money to Soto.
Yes. That’s sort of what I’m implying. The Yankees might want him back but at whatever his current market rate is. Go test the market and then we’ll talk. Meanwhile, we’ll talk with these other frontline starters on the market.
Same tactic Cashman used against Jeter and Casey Close during his final contract.
The fact they didn’t immediately pick up the option, fully knowing it existed and would be used, means they’re not planning to pick it up, or they’re trying to negotiate a new deal that somehow lowers the AAV.
There has been plenty of time to discuss Cole’s contract. Cole will need to take deferrals but then again he’s an union guy and may not take a significantly lower AAV.
The crux of the decision if I was Cashman is “Is Cole still a #1 starter” My judgement is No
( I agree that as NYY is currently constituted he is their best starter) They must have given him a multiple physicals in 2024 during rehab and have a lot of XRay MRI images to make a 5 year assessment/investment in him. Is there a good probability he may need TJS in the next 5 years. I think there is.
To put it another way maybe NYY values Cole at say $28M AAV over 5 years
To put it another way Seth Lugo is as good or better than Cole on a short term deal
I’m guessing the Yankees didn’t act right after Cole opted out because they called him in for a physical and imaging on his arm and shoulder. Then it all needs to be reviewed which takes a bit of time. I would do that if I were the Yankees.
Wow. He tripped this faster than he covered first base.
Considering the Yankees couldn’t win with soto, and can’t really afford to keep. I’d say let Cole go.
Yankees have the highest revenue in MLB. Yankees were in the bottom half in baseball in terms of reinvesting profits back into the team on a percent basis.
JMO but I think Cole is going to be pitching elsewhere this next year…. Until he lands on the 60 day IL. Maybe the Giants or Padres?
Bye bye Cole. The Yankees seriously need to do a better job and drafting and developing starting pitching. They need 5 starters that can guarantee to go at least 6 innings
Resign cole! They do need him and how much was on him as opposed to management calling pitches. Go back to the red sox game where cole owned it but said we discussed it prior. Soto on the other hand.. great fit but is he worth 500 plus mill? Offer him 7-to 10 years up to 410 million which he will probably say no. Then let him walk. You resign cole and then go get Blake snell or Burnse.
Rotation would be
Cole
Burnes or snell
Rodon
Gil
Cortes
Stroman long man schmidt goes to the pen.
Yankees use some funds to sign a few relievers Holmes,loaisiga khanle are free agents go and sign a few replacements,
Khanle can come back j on team friendly deal let others walk. Sign tanner scott and maybe Kirby Yates and david Robertson. Kahnle can come back k on a team friendly deal. As for the rest of the team holes with Soto, rizzo and gleybar leaving… sign anythony Santander, and a vet that can play 2b to platoon with peraza.. DJL can platoon with rice at 1b and all should be ok.. loaded starting staff pen is a beast with schmidt and free agents coming in. They loose Soto, rizzo and gleybar but gain Santander and someone like Adam Frazier for 2b ….
How do you draft an Ace level pitcher with late 1st round picks?
The Yankees are not like the other teams in the Majors, that have no issues with tearing it all down and going into full rebuild mode for 3-5 seasons.
If the Yankees are smart they will take that elbow scare that shelved him early and take it as a warning sign of things to come. I pass and go after Burnes.
Then again, the Yankees aren’t smart if they retain Aaron Boone as manager, so we will know quickly what they are very quickly.
I have to say, the fact that the Yankees have not instantly voided the opt out by tacking on the extra year is worrying me.
I can conclude that there are 2 options.
1. They are letting him go.
2. They might be trying to iron out an extention with injury provisions like Boston did a few years back, the 1 million team option if he goes down with an elbow injury.
The Yankees should be thanking their lucky stars. They’re getting out from under a 4 year $144M albatross. Cole is 34 and will continue to decline. He was so gassed in that WS game he could cover 1B.
No choice but to let him walk. Montgomery ended up firing Boras. Wonder how Cole will feel about Boras in March?
If the Yankees let him go, it might be a move towards reducing payroll in a very large way. Cole leaves, Yankees don’t sign Soto, and Rizzo is bought out. That’s just a huge amount of money.
I’m not advocating for it, but it would be interestin
Interested to see where this goes. Does it mean anything that it’s taking them so long to announce their decision? Who knows. Guess we’ll find out by tomorrow either way.
Funny how every Yankee fan thinks they’re going to sign Burnes. Entitled much? Yeesh.
funny how you characterize what every Yankee fan thinks and wants….Burnes would be as expensive and ask for as many years as Cole while Burnes numbers seem to be trending down as everyone says Cole’s numbers are also….better the guy you know than the guy you don’t…
And yet Burnes is mentioned in this thread even more than Cole.
Pitchers tend to hit a wall at 2000 innings.
The real question and most important question should be are the yankees picking up aaron boones extension… hopefully not! I get he doesn’t play and he can’t make players get hits etc but he has made so many questionable moves that seem to cost the yankees at least 10-12 games a year. I was told by a former mlb yankees and now front office official for another team that Boone gets a note as to moves to make after the 6th inning all based on analytics.. if that is true. That is awful!
The Yankees are obviously going to pick up the option. If Cole was on the open market, he’d be getting offers like 4/180. The Yankees get the extra year by picking up the option
Not too often a team gets aa break like that, hasta la vista baby…..After that world series he wants a raise ? Tigers trying to get Vlad, which is a good one year deal.
Welcome to the Angels Mr. Cole!
Just kidding.
At his age, Let him walk and take his ego with him
Why not give Cole the extra year? Then sign every top FA like the Dodgers did last for $2mil per for the first ten years and pay the rest for 20 years thereafter? Soto 15/$800mil, Burnes 8/$200mil, Snell 5/$200mil, Hernandez 5/$200mil! And finish out the top 20! If the Dodgers can stack it why not the Yankees or any other team for that matter? Steinbrenner, Cashman and Boone will never bring another title to New York! I’m a Yankees fan and I said it! All three are the exact same type of personality, act like you tried your best but fell just short in the end! Betcha their wives feel the same way!
@freak25, in my fantasy world, I’d make The Warrior my manager. A fire needs to be lit under a lot of fannies.
A more interesting question might be, if they extend Cole, do they still re-sign Soto? They really need both.
Heyman was wrong? Shocking!
So long see yaMr Coke
That arm has some issues.
The Yankees need to rethink there operations
Soto so long and thank you for an amazing year, but signing him is stupid.
The Yankees need some athletes.
Cashman really needs to go
Boone is useless.
Ownership needs some passion to want win and not just to open their wallets for useless spending.
The Yankees’ deadline to decide on Cole is 4pm CT on Monday. Central Time?
Yes, Central Time, the time zone Tim Dierkes, founder of MLBTR, lives in. The world doesn’t revolve around New York, though I could understand using the Eastern Time zone since that’s where the decision will be made in this case.
Everyone uses EST. It doesn’t matter if the world revolves around NYC (it still does for at least a little while), but everyone needs a common standard.
Tick tock, Yanks. What’s it gonna be?
I personally hate the Yankees as a long time Braves fan, no offense to anyone lol those 90s and early 2000s were hard on me. That being said I love seeing them try to always field a good team by spending. I hope they get Cole and Soto to keep them out of the NL, I’d rather take my chances in the WS if my team and the ya is make it.
It’s hard to imagine giving a SP $180m starting at age 35. But I guess deGrom got something close, so probably some team will make the offer.
Odds Yanks post the extra year and ca$hi$h vs letting him walk? 80/20? 75/25? 60/40? 50/50? Thinking it’s closer to 50/50 they might be happier letting him walk while attempting to resign Soto, Gleyber and 2-3 lesser (#3-#5’s) pitchers along with another decent, everyday player/Christian Walker. Cole can’t be happy mgmt left him out on an island w/o checking in on him in the 5th inning over the course of 38 pitches.
Can’t field his position and blackmails for $36M……
Hhhhhmmmm…..
Rumor is Sotos’ real age is in question?
Cashman should walk away.
Those salaries are insults to all hardworking Americans and hard working people everywhere.
I will stop supporting baseball if it gets much more ridiculous.
It is a sign of.a sickness with the country.
What a waste of resources and human effort.
SHAMEFUL
With so many teams (what, half the league?) facing sizable local TV revenue reductions and likely downward payroll adjustments, does anyone else find it odd to see so many players opting out of guaranteed money this offseason? Or will there be cries of “collusion” from the PA when nobody gets a 7/8 yr deal in the hundreds of millions dollar range? Or, is MLB so flush with cash that they’ll supplement the old RSN teams with extra $$$?
Lots of curious takes here. Yankees are going to exercise their tack on. It doesn’t impact their plans with Soto, because the Yankees can afford both players.
can anyone explain how cole opted out then opted in? is that allowed in MLB? can a team change its mind on a contract decision as well? say the dodgers chose to cancel the remaining 12 years of yamamoto deal can they do that as well?