Three years ago today, the results of voting for 2021’s NL Cy Young award were announced. The top of the ballot featured a somewhat controversial battle between the elite rate production of then-Brewers ace Corbin Burnes and the volume offered by Phillies ace Zack Wheeler, with Burnes ultimately taking home the trophy. Finishing just below them in balloting, however, was a pair of hurlers from the playoff rotation that took the Dodgers to the NLCS: right-handers Max Scherzer and Walker Buehler.
Flash forward three years, and things have gone quite well for the first- and second-place finishers for that year’s Cy Young in the NL. Burnes enters this winter as the consensus top free agent pitcher available and could be in line for a guarantee that reaches $200MM, while Wheeler opted against returning to the open market in favor of extending with the Phillies on a three-year, $126MM contract earlier this year and now stands as a Cy Young finalist once again alongside Chris Sale and Paul Skenes. Scherzer and Buehler are also headed into free agency this winter, although neither figures to be in line for a nine-figure guarantee like those of Burnes and Wheeler.
Instead, both hurlers figure to enter the open market hoping to re-establish themselves as front-of-the-rotation talents after facing adversity in recent years. Scherzer and Buehler landed the 33rd and 37th spots on MLBTR’s annual Top 50 MLB Free Agents list this winter, as we predicted one-year deals worth $16MM and $15MM respectively for each player. While both hurlers boast ace-level pedigrees and could wind up signing similar contracts this winter, the pair took different paths to get to this point over recent years and their unique challenges and assets could inform the preferences of prospective suitors.
Scherzer’s struggles in recent seasons have been almost entirely about health rather than performance. After turning in 11 utterly dominant starts for the Dodgers down the stretch following a trade from the Nationals at that summer’s trade deadline, the veteran right-hander’s season came to an abrupt end when he was forced out of Game 2 of the NLCS due to a dead arm after just 4 1/3 innings of work. Scherzer was unable to bounce-back in time to pitch again for L.A. in that series and ultimately departed the club on the heels of their loss to the eventual World Champion Braves in the series.
After landing with the Mets on a three-year guarantee worth $130MM, Scherzer turned in a dominant 2022 campaign for New York but was limited to just 23 starts due to oblique issues. It was the fewest starts he had made in a full season during his career, and his 145 1/3 innings of work, while hardly out of the ordinary for a starter in recent years, was similarly a full-season career low. The right-hander bounced back in terms of volume in 2023, making 27 starts for the Mets and Rangers throughout the regular season, but suffered on the performance front as he posted a somewhat middling 3.77 ERA (112 ERA+) in 152 2/3 innings of work. Those results improved significantly (3.20 ERA, 135 ERA+) down the stretch following his trade to Texas, but much like 2021 Scherzer struggled with injuries late in the season and was hampered during the playoffs, ultimately pitching just 9 2/3 innings total during the club’s championship run.
While Scherzer’s declining volume and production were somewhat concerning, the future Hall of Famer was still clearly among the top pitchers in the sport even as he began to struggle with injury. Over those aforementioned two seasons, Scherzer combined for 50 starts where he posted an excellent 3.03 ERA (133 ERA+) with a 3.49 FIP and a 29.3% strikeout rate in 298 innings of work. That performance was good for 6.7 fWAR, good for 23rd among all starters across those two seasons and sandwiched between the likes of Max Fried and Clayton Kershaw.
Unfortunately for the veteran, however, things took a substantial turn for the worse in 2024 as he suffered from the first truly injury-plagued season of his career. After undergoing back surgery last offseason, Scherzer’s was expected to miss at least the first couple of months of action. That timetable was further delayed by nerve issues, and by the time shoulder fatigue brought his season to an early end in September he had made just nine total starts this season. Those nine starts saw Scherzer pitch effectively, though not close to the ace-level production he had flashed even two years prior. In 43 1/3 innings of work this season, he pitched to a 3.95 ERA with a 4.18 FIP, striking out 22.6% of opponents faced while walking just 5.6%.
Looking ahead to 2025, it’s certainly easy to imagine Scherzer providing high quality production whenever he’s on the field, given the league average results he posted while fighting through injury this year and his pedigree as a three-time winner and six-time finalist of the Cy Young award. With that being said, the veteran will celebrate his 41st birthday in July of 2025, and his increasingly detrimental injury woes in recent years leave plenty of questions about just how many starts Scherzer can be counted on for in 2025, particularly in the postseason given the injury questions he faced in 2023, 2021, and even 2019 with the Nationals.
By contrast, Buehler comes with far fewer questions regarding his overall health. That’s to be expected from a player who is a decade and a day Scherzer’s junior. That’s not to say Buehler hasn’t had health issues of his own, of course, as Buehler had nearly two full calendar years of his career wiped out by Tommy John surgery. Buehler returned to the mound for the Dodgers on May 7 of this year after having last pitched in a major league game on June 10 of 2022. The righty has had few injury woes throughout his career aside from his two career elbow surgeries, with a bout of hip inflammation this year and a rib injury back in 2018 representing the only other significant injuries of his big league career.
With that being said, it’s worth noting that the aforementioned Tommy John surgery was actually the second of Buehler’s pitching career. It’s not uncommon for players to struggle after going under the knife a second time, though some pitchers such as Nathan Eovaldi and Jameson Taillon have undergone the procedure twice and gone on to be effective for years following their second surgery. Buehler also averaged 95 mph on his fastball in 2024, an encouraging sign as it’s right in line with his average prior to going under the knife.
That’s not to say Buehler lacks question marks, however. The right-hander’s 2024 season was nothing short of atrocious. He surrendered a 5.38 ERA and 5.54 FIP that were both more than 30% worse than league average by ERA- and FIP-, while his 18.6% strikeout rate and 8.1% walk rate were both the worst marks of his career since he became a full time player in 2018. While Buehler’s solid 15 innings of work during the playoffs (3.60 ERA, 3.50 FIP) offer some reason for optimism, particularly as he struck out a third of his opponents in the NLCS and World Series, his atrocious regular season results are difficult to ignore. While Scherzer seems to be a reasonable bet to produce when healthy enough to take the mound, Buehler will need to improve his overall production substantially to be an even league average starter next year even as he flashed his front-of-the-rotation upside late in the Dodgers’ championship run this postseason.
If your team was in the market for a bounce-back starter this winter, which would you rather sign? Would you value Scherzer’s strong results and lengthy track record of success when healthy despite his age and injury questions, or would you prefer Buehler’s youth and upside despite his brutal results in 2024?
I tend to doubt either will be worth the money next year.
It’s kind of like asking if you’d rather be shot or stabbed. I guess it depends, but both options suck.
That’s a good one Clip. My thoughts exactly.
I would take Scherzer or Buelher over a Nick Pivetta all day. At least with those 2 you MIGHT have a really good pitcher.
Amen brother, amen.
Who may or may not be healthy to be on a playoff roster. Such of course is true with any player but much more so here. I don’t trust Scherzer at this stage if his remarkable career. I do think WB could come back nicely and I’d go with WB, NP and then MS despite the fact that Scherzer’s potential ceiling is still there.
Buehler is a fascinating case. He’s in line for a bet on himself contract but will he get the second year with an opt-out that has been in vogue – Mannea, Snell, etc? I wouldn’t do that unless it was something like 5 million guaranty with escalators based on 2025 durability.
Pure guess:
1 year – 15, with up to 5 in incentives to get to 20, and a player option for 5 million that escalates up to 25 million based on innings..
Unless the Dodgers strike fast and there is a strong desire by Buehler to stay on the Dodgers, I think he stays on the market for a while as the big names shake out and teams can better assess their needs and know what’s left in their budgets later in the off-season..
I can see Dodgers, Padres, Atlanta, Orioles, Yanks, Mets, and Texas in play. With the Mets a possible early strike – it’s Cohen money after all.
I’d give Buehler five years and 70M if he’d take it. Be a great deal. I’d give Scherzer 1yr and 8M with some incentives. He got paid big time on his last deal and fell flat.
I think it’s a good comparison both guys have similar value. The team who signs Scherzer needs depth because he’s more likely to miss time. I picked Buehler to the Braves and Scherzer to the Cardinals. The Cardinals can hope Scherzer turns back the clock and even if he does and the team still isn’t playing well he can be traded at the deadline.
Pink, I know you’ve been vocal about saying that you think all the talk about the Cards blowing things up is stupid, and I agree with you to an extent. But I don’t see them adding a guy like Scherzer, who is going to get a base well above the 8M you’re talking about. Not that he deserves it , mind you. Cards aren’t in win-now mode.
The Cardinals aren’t in lose now mode either.
If you don’t have a good enough team with average luck then you need high upside guys who maybe with good luck could allow you to compete with the best teams in baseball. Scherzer would give the Cardinals that type of hope. And if he plays well and the rest of the team doesn’t he will bring back prospects at the deadline.
A good example of this line of thinking is last year with the Red Sox. They went and got ONeill, from the Cardinals, and he had upside. The Red Sox weren’t going to be good enough most likely so they needed upside. And good gosh all they had to do was not trade Chris Sale and they probably make the playoffs.
So Buehler has had “few injury woes” other than those two pesky Tommy John surgeries. I’m told that Mrs. Lincoln enjoyed the play.
“Enjoyed the play”…That was a fairly dark reference, bro, but I do have to admit, it made me laugh and has a bit of truth in it.
It’s only been 159 years. Too soon?
@mlb, you’ve never heard that? “Other than that, how’d you enjoy the play, Mrs Lincoln?” is a very common reference. lNot dark at all when you consider how long ago it happened. But I agree with @draker,,I thought the same thing when I read how Deeds worded that.
Buehler is the next Jack Flaherty. Off to the Tigers he goes for Chris Fetter to work his magic.
Yep, I can see that happening. It paid dividends for Lorenzen and Flaherty. (And both paid dividends for the Tigers in the form of trade returns.)
Max “dead arm when you need it” Scherzer vs Walker “give it everything he’s got even if it’s not his best stuff” Buehler?
Buehler, no doubt Buehler in 2025 the much better investment.
Probably a little doubt…..
Yeah, while I also picked Buehler, it’s not a no-brainer.
Buehler has a chance to bounce back. Scherzer is around the corner from AARP and Miracle Ear endorsements.
Any team that pays MadMax more than the minimum with performance bonuses (per start) is absolutely insane
I’d give him 1/10 plus a million a start from start 20-on.
Oh, oh… overpay! Your wallet must be getting heavy, Ron D.!
I picked Buehler because he showed he was back in form in the playoffs. Still I’d give him 1 year for like 16 million with performance incentives.
I love Max, I think he’s a great competitor, he’s going into the Hall of Fame, but he needs to prove he’s healthy. I’d give him a heavily-incentivized deal at 1 year and 13 million.
TJ surgery usually takes a year to recover and another half a season to get back into form. I think Buehler will be a great pick up this year. He will be on a pitch count, but he will be very good. 2026 he should be back to normal.
Remember when Scherzer quit on the Dodgers in the playoffs and never got flak for it?
Probably because he and Roberts stupidly agreed to have him the first series on barely any rest. Hard to say he quit on them when he clearly gave his all just before
I really want the Dodgers to re-sign Buehler, but if the last pitch he threw was in closing out Game 5 of the 2024 World Series, I can live with that.
Big Game Buehler. Buetane. Walker F’ing Buehler.
Does age really matter if its a one year deal? Neither are likely to win the Cy Young. Max is likely to pitch deeper into games, so if its the same contract, you take Max (assuming you’re satisfied with the medicals). If you’re looking for anything more than one year, take Buehler.
Neither one. They don’t go more than 4 or 5 innings so they aren’t considered starting pitchers. More like bullpen guys.
You simply can’t base your opinion on how the player performed recently and only recently. Chris Sale and Garrett Crochet proved that last year.
Either one is leaps and bounds better than any of the 5 dumpster fires that the Angels will trot out to the mound this year.